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That should be about it for Boris Bullshit. Ironically he is finally doing what needs to be done, but because he bullshitted (again) and tried to play the role of everyone's best chum (again), then this massively weakens him. That it is over something that makes a lot of people a little bit crazy like Christmas will amplify Johnson's abject failings as a leader.
What a bellend.
More transmissible is an interesting finding. It might be that the Receptor Binding Domain (RBD) has tighter binding to ACE2 on cells so a lower dose leads to an infection.
Is that the same as saying, for example: If it took 4 days for someone to become infectious before it now takes less than 2 days?
Is that the same as saying, for example: If it took 4 days for someone to become infectious before it now takes less than 2 days?
No, it means that you might need less exposure to an infectious person to acquire the virus yourself. For example, purely as an example, instead of, say, 15 mins at 2m indoors, half that at twice the distance. So basically the fantasy idea of Covid Secure schooling starting to look even weaker.
Plus a greater risk from surfaces, persistent micro-droplets indoors etc.
The theoretical R-number goes up because each infected person infects more people, despite their behaviour being the same.
He’s breaking us in gently for a proper full lockdown in January then.
The interesting thing was the extension to Furlough to cover Easter. Not something that suggests the Government is thinking food and leisure will be anything close to normal.
Unfortunately we may be at the benefit of hindsight again wondering why we didn't resend the relaxation of rules about meeting at Christmas across the country. Or why we haven't moved to national travel restrictions. I suspect the answer may come back to any change being hamstrung by the ERGs and the ultras.
No, it means that you might need less exposure to an infectious person...
Thanks
Hence the chance of spread, all else being equal (behaviours), goes up.
despite their behaviour being the same
Of course… their behaviour has not been the same. This increase is because of increased contact… the “mutant strain” line isn’t the relevant point. Admissions and cases are exactly where many said they would be at this point… there are no real surprises… just a PM with blinkers on, who always hopes for the best, rather than act in the best way to help form events.
Vaccines redundant? That’s the huge worry I’m sure.
The virus has changed around once a month apparently (according to the bloke on bbc news). Covid has been more stable than other viruses, but they change all the time. Currently there is no evidence to suggest the vaccine wont work as per what hancock said this week.
Currently there is no evidence to suggest the vaccine wont work …
This needs repeating.
Aye, lets not be starting that kind of talk +1
Also we have a range of vaccines to chose from, each targeting different regions of virus
The new mutated variant will only change a tiny bit so chances are that even if one didn't work we can use another one
Eggs in one basket etc
The only real issue is that vaccine rollout for mostis still a while away 😭
Looks like my mum in law alone for Xmas?!
@TiRed do you think school closures will happen in the next lockdown? We clearly need a ‘proper lockdown’ again
I think that any significant increase in transmission might take the place of schools being open next term. That vaccine roll-out can’t come fast enough.
The evidence of spread prior to end of lockdown2 (schools open) in the south east should be concerning to all. Because a strain that spreads even under lockdown with schools closed, whilst unlikely, would be a significant healthcare burden.
Does beg the question of what the hell is going on in South Wales if they can manage this without any help (yet) from a new highly-transmissable variant.
Doesn't that heat map show they're not managing it?
I think he means manage this as in manage to cause the high spread as shown on this graph, without the mutation.
Fair play to the PM he has made the tough call but it is no different to the call at Eid.
I am not a fan of the PM but he has finally caught on that we can't fudge this. We're in tier 2 and the family FaceTime call last night we cancelled our Christmas plans leaving the lad on his own for the holiday period.
Zoom Christmas it is then, we're having a Zoom tree decoration tomorrow afternoon to get ready(always late in the month for us).
Hopefully we'll be all raring to go by quarter 4, 2021. We get our own version of the roaring 20's after the herd is immunised.
(EDIT; I'm watching the announcement on catch-up, Peston needs to learn how to ask a concise question).
The virus has changed around once a month apparently
Viruses mutate all the time. COG-UK or some other group said they had identified 12,000 mutations back in July. Most mutations are short lived or have little/no consequence.
This new variant includes a mutation to the receptor binding of the spike protein, which is potentially significant.
Does beg the question of what the hell is going on in South Wales if they can manage this without any help (yet) from a new highly-transmissable variant.
There's a large amount of people who travel to London on a Monday and back to South Wales on a Friday normally. Even with reduced numbers there is a strong regular path for the virus to travel along.
Fully expecting Drakeford to announce further restrictions in the next day or two.
He already has RJ. Wales in Tier 4 from midnight.
Telegraph journalist showing he's not paying attention, "where did the new strain come from?" Looking for the brown people caused this excuse is how that reads to me! Vile creature.
@reluctantjumper....he's already announced lockdown from midnight tonight!
The old variant has hardly grown since mid November. New variant is crazy.
So what's the difference between tier 4 and lockdown then? Looks like a localised lockdown to me.
Churches are open so that you can pray away the virus
But they have just lied about the Porton Down data not being available. It is and my sister has read it.
Not as such of your source is right. It will mean it’s not available for public release.
So does this affect family bubbles? I'm on my own and had planned to visit my folks for Christmas and stay with them for the week, they live just down the road. To ensure my elderly folks won't be put at risk I had decided to 'quarentine' myself for 10 days before hand, no meeting my friends, going to shops etc.
So am I still allowed to go since scotland is going into full lockdown from the boxing day. I assume so, given my folks are in my bubble. Can anyone confirm?
Could the mutation also be able to survive on hard surface for longer and, or...
Take less cells to infect host
Become transmittal alot quicker
Resilient to ipa at current rate
Stay transmittable for longer in the shredder
Able to survive 'dry' or aerobically for alot longer
Have an increased rate of reproduction
Able to evade or suppress host autoimmune systems for longer
I am not an epidemiology person but know about killing tiny thimgs and this seems possible to me
@Tom-B - yep, didn't think it would be that quickly so missed the announcement. Was expecting it tomorrow.
Does beg the question of what the hell is going on in South Wales
Gavin and Stacey
This isn’t good - there’s no evidence yet that it will reduce the effectiveness of the vaccines but I wouldn’t rule it out.
Boris should have put the South into Tier 3 along with the rest of us. The **** did they expect, encouraging the highest density part of the UK to carry on using the tube and going out for a drink.
Looks like my mum in law alone for Xmas?!
I think that support bubbles still count as one household, so if you’re not bubbled with somebody else you can still see her
Boris should have put the South into Tier 3 along with the rest of us.
Kent has been in T3 since nationwide lockdown ended.
Seems like it didn’t work. We were blaming the Kentish for acting poorly but it seems that was unfair now that a new strain has been found responsible
.
So what’s the difference between tier 4 and lockdown then? Looks like a localised lockdown to me.
Quite a difference*, no limit on amount of times you can exercise, still loads of pointless shops open - DFS, garden centres and the likes. Lockdown wasn't really a lockdown, this is less so.
* We're not long out of 3 weeks of tier 4.
Kent has been in T3 since nationwide lockdown ended.
Seems like it didn’t work. We were blaming the Kentish for acting poorly but it seems that was unfair now that a new strain has been found responsible
Posted
Was it Kent that drove this or London though? If it was spreading in Kent rapidly under Tier 3 then the shit is really going to hit the fan.
Watch every nation on the planet ban people from entering from the UK.
This isn’t good – there’s no evidence yet that it will reduce the effectiveness of the vaccines but I wouldn’t rule it out.
A little science. The vaccine generates a response against spike protein. The mRNA vaccine is the genetic instruction to make that spike protein in some conformation that may bare some resemblance to the spike protein on the surface of the virus.
Your immune system makes not one single antibody but a polyclonal response. Some of those antibodies will be natural born killers that bind tightly, others are junk. Your response won’t be the same as mine. BUT they will already be testing the ability of neutralising serum from past donors to take out any strain. At least they should be!
For context, in the Lilly antibody study, 6% of people had strains resistant to their antibody. In Scotland there is a strain completely resistant to the RGN antibody. That’s MONOclonal antibodies for you. Vaccine responses (and infections) are POLYclonal, so less likely to have absolute resistance. There will be antigenic drift, and new vaccines will be needed. But the timeframe is likely to be years not months. Also past infections will leave some residual protection against severe disease.
[tl:dr] vaccines make polyclonal or wide ranging antibodies that take out many sites on the spike protein. Resistance is possible but it’s very early days.
I am not a fan of the PM but he has finally caught on that we can’t fudge this
I think a few people are giving him way too much credit - the Christmas relaxation looked wrong to anyone with half a brain a month ago, the data of rising infections and new strains of Covid was public at the beginning of the week.
He is continuing to fudge it at the last minute, thus allowing it to spread, for deaths to keep increasing, for longer stricter lockdowns to be required, and to **** up the economy completely. As he has done from the start.
Boris really is ****ing clueless isn't he? It's like lurching from one load of half-arsed restrictions to another at the drop of a hat with seemingly little planning or clue and not much in the way of enforcement either.
At least my Mum (in London) is OK, she's got some good neighbours who all look out for each other and she's fairly settled with the idea of a Christmas of video calls - in some respects I think she's actually quite glad that she doesn't have to travel to my sister's or put in any effort for Christmas!
[tl:dr] vaccines make polyclonal or wide ranging antibodies that take out many sites on the spike protein. Resistance is possible but it’s very early days.
I know this.
There have been some moderate reductions in the effectiveness of seasonal flu vaccines between the time they were in R&D to the time they were being distributed though, hasn’t there? I can’t remember what paper it was that I was reading - I’ll see if I can dig it out.
I don’t think now is the time to be telling ourselves “oh it’ll probably be alright - most mutations that cause vaccine inefectivity take a few years to occur”
You know as well as me it’s just a roll of the dice (probability) - just because it usually happens along in that timeframe doesn’t make it true for every case.
Keep the science coming…
With many different vaccines coming… talk of loss of effectiveness in the first year feels a bit alarmist. Having said that… if we dropped the policy of allowing “just enough spread that the NHS can just about cope”, and acted to get prevalence right down, and keep to keep it down, we’d be in a much better place… we have the tools to contain this virus, but not if we keep pretending that current infection rates are okay… because vaccines are coming… they are not okay, and they are crippling our society, and health service, and economy. We are spreading the virus, we should stop doing so.
You know as well as me it’s just a roll of the dice (probability) – just because it usually happens along in that timeframe doesn’t make it true for every case.
True, but one needs some understanding of what is driving the mutations, and where antibodies bind. There’s been a lot of epitope mapping for the antibodies. Ours was identified from SARS-CoV-1 and does not bind to the RBD. Vaccination by inactivated virus may deliver a different response more akin to infection.
What will be interesting is whether the trend from cases to admissions to deaths is different in the South. That will take a few weeks to feed through. My suspicion is that pathogenicity is unchanged.
I think a few people are giving him way too much credit
100%. Can't believe the "fair play to him" type comments. Boris has done a terrible job since the start, particularly terrible recently, now he's playing catch up on the poor choices made so far.
If the current vaccines are rendered ineffective surely it’s just a case of reformulating to the new strain. It takes time, but hey we’ve done it before so this time will be quicker?
Can I point out whilst everybody (except Tired) is ranting and raving, that at the beginning of this, right back in March, we were told that the second wave which would come in winter, would be worse than the first wave. Hell we even had 1918 to illustrate it for us.
Yes politicians have messed up a lot, but so would you. Hell, I'd have opted for the herd immunity approach.
So now, yes, it's all pretty bad but looked at another way; you're not living in a refugee camp, you're not being bombed, you've not got a life expectancy of 30, your species isn't on the brink of extinction and your habitat hasn't been bulldozed to produce stuff to make filthy cheap muck to feed another species so it can proliferate across the planet and destroy everything.
Just saying.
What will be interesting is whether the trend from cases to admissions to deaths is different in the South. That will take a few weeks to feed through. My suspicion is that pathogenicity is unchanged.
Depends on whether there are selection pressures on pathogenicity - social distancing could act as such a pressure.
Just saying.
You are saying that there are far more dangerous places in the world. We all agree. That doesn’t excuse our PM for his continued failure to listen to those that know more than he about the importance of timing and that living with a high prevalence is far riskier than keeping prevalence low. A sudden spike in cases from a low base can be managed. A sudden spike in cases from a high base is far more problematic… Johnson made his choices, and the damage is on him. You might have suggested even worse actions… but others wiser than you or I told him what needed doing. No one should be back slapping him at this point. He should have already resigned. He’s hopeless.
Why are folks already worrying that the vaccine won't work? Im a worrier, but i try to worry about things that we know are an issue, not stuff that might be an issue, such as the vaccine now not working. Which there is absolutely no evidence of.
There's plenty enough bad shit going on to not have to conjure up fairly unlikely scenarios to get even more stressed about.
If lower infectious dose is a thing with the new variant, you'd hope for some mitigation in severity. But 2020 rules probably still apply, so TiReds assessment is most likely.
It just struck me that most of England is still in Tier 3. Would it not have been better to apply Tier 4 across the board (for a while at least)?
Tpbiker agreed, enough scaremongering as it is.
selection pressures on pathogenicity
This may change the relationship between cases and admissions, but probably not admissions and deaths. Hence one will look at the whole chain. I suspect it’s just ACE2 binding at the RBD since this is the epitope region most open to selection pressure and has been noted many many times. TMPRSS2 changes could be pathogenicity drivers.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0092867420302294
my wife advises me that mumsnet is now full of people saying they are packing up and going to their parents / family tonight so that they are gone before tier 4 kicks in. Jeez, don't think they get it.
Jeez, don’t think they get it.
Well that's been the problem all along. A post cropped up on my FB because a Brexity friend of mine had commented on it, it was about a party in Liverpool being broken up by police, people fined etc and the thread was full of people saying
"it's just a cold"
"it's got a 99.5% recovery rate"
"it's all a scam so the Government can crack down on your rights"
"they should be out catching real criminals"
"I don't pay my taxes for the police to behave like this"
"we should gather outside the police station and protest"
There does seem to be a strong correlation between Brexiteers and Covid-deniers - maybe it's the anti-establishment thing? Won't have any of those experts telling US what's best, we've watched a video on YouTube and we're all experts!
“it’s got a 99.5% recovery rate”
I’m always intrigued by this statement. Whilst factually correct, people ignore the fact that the 0.5% is about 330,000 additional deaths spread over the duration of the pandemic. That’s not an insignificant number. 175,000 per year would be pretty awful. We’ll squeeze under 100,000 excess deaths in 2020 in England and Wales. Perhaps two thirds down to COVID19.
The statement also fails to factor in morbidity, with about 10% of patients having ongoing symptoms. My symptoms are now an inability to put down more than 200w on Zwift. I am so unfit...
I remember friends back in the UK going out for "one last big night out" before pub restrictions kicked in last time.
As I’ve said previously, Boris Making a u-turn on Christmas will reduce compliance in the long term. People will feel safer breaking the rules in numbers and that will carry on into the new year. People are losing the feeling of being tied into a social contact. The poverty/unemployment, morale drop due to Christmas cancellations and Brexit disorganisation/fallout is going to lead to unrest.
I remember friends back in the UK going out for “one last big night out” before pub restrictions kicked in last time.
I guess that's why its kicking in so quickly. Although everything is already shut in those areas anyway.
“it’s just a cold”
“it’s got a 99.5% recovery rate”
“it’s all a scam so the Government can crack down on your rights”
“they should be out catching real criminals”
“I don’t pay my taxes for the police to behave like this”
“we should gather outside the police station and protest”
Police have threatened a £10,000 fine to a local guy trying to organise a rave this weekend. My favourite odd FB response was from someone saying that the Police "need to remember they don't work for a corporation"
Maybe the potential for mutations is an argument to put to those who say 'protect the vulnerable and let the rest catch it'. The more infections there are the more risk of a dangerous mutation. But on second thoughts, forget the idea, they're not interested in logic.
Looks like Johnson's attempt at containing the new strain of covid has probably failed
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/traffic-tier-4-london-south-east-b1776612.html
As much as I hate boris, he's not to blame for the ignorant selfish pricks who decide to travel tonight to get home for Christmas regardless of further spread.
I hope they have at least some sense of guilt if their elderly relatives get it. Tbh, and I may sound harsh here, but if said elderly relative is happy to attend a Christmas dinner with someone who they kniw has just travelled up from London against all guidance, I have very little sympathy.
What I do have sympathy for is the poor folks who get it in the subsequent wave which will follow.
That Twitter post is so depressing..
Ps..that Harriet lady is thick as pig shit..
'I've been isolating for weeks so I could see my mum at Christmas, but I'm now thinking getting on a packed train may not have been a good idea'
No shit Sherlock..
My folks (81 and 82) had the 1st shot @ Staffs County Showground on Wednesday.
Mucho impressed with the operation - said don't be too hung up on the time-slots, people were being shepherded through with enough slack to make it work well.
Bit of a heads-up on the notification front - my folks were notified by their GP surgery via text message, then invited to ring the surgery to book a slot on a first come first served basis. Now you might wonder whether text is the best means of contacting the over-80's - my Dad is Techno-Dad and is more tech savvy than i am - and this is here in Staffs, but those that haven't heard anything might want to check if that's what's happening where your folks are.
This may change the relationship between cases and admissions, but probably not admissions and deaths. Hence one will look at the whole chain. I suspect it’s just ACE2 binding at the RBD since this is the epitope region most open to selection pressure and has been noted many many times. TMPRSS2 changes could be pathogenicity drivers.
Could we have the layman's translation please?
Sure. There is a well-defined relationship between daily cases, future hospitalisations and subsequent deaths. About 1/50 cases go to hospitals and about 1/5 of those will die. One might think that if a new strain has a different disease characteristic, the relationships might change. So perhaps fewer people go to hospital and even fewer subsequently die. Or not.
The most likely differences in strains is the stickiness to cells (to a cell marker called ACE2). The pathogenic nasties is the subsequent incorporation of the virus and inflammatory response using another cell protein (that’s the second of those acronyms)
Will have a look at north and south differences as deaths feed in from end of lockdown. The rise in the south east prior to lockdown was noticeable and unexplained. Replacement of a strain is one explanation.
Seeing as you are here - given that the mRNA vaccines use the protein spike as the key element to their effectiveness, and given that you seem to be suggesting this is the part of the virus most susceptible to variation, are you worried that the mRNA 'way' is not the way forward?
I haven't actually seen the Mandalorian, yet still tried at least a bit to chime in with whether This Is The Way...
Tired, are you claiming a death rate of 0.4% of *daily cases* there? That’s a long way off. It’s currently running at ~2% even ignoring the effect of lag in a rising system.
my folks were notified by their GP surgery via text message,
Actually, that's a very valid issue, better check my dad has turned his phone on. They've had problems in the past as the GP surgery operates a text only system, and when my technophobe mum has complained she was more or less told to get with the programme.
My god has this backfired a bit. Have a look at the news - a mass exodus from London resulting in no train tickets out of town at all available from 7pm last night, and trains packed shoulder to to shoulder standing room only. God knows what the trains and tubes were like last night.
My emotions are all over the place - the shear humanity and thought of folk in the Gnusmas thread, vs the selfish of people exiting town last night vs the luck I have that I can at least spend Christmas Day with my wife and two kids.
Could the government have locked down out of city public transport? I know a lot of people could have taken cars but at least then there are I their own tin box.
I do have some sympathy with those travelling out of London last night. We often forget that for many younger people, London isn’t “home”, it may be where they live and work but home will be elsewhere. Hundreds of thousands travel out of the city each year for Xmas.
But, I do think it’s vastly irresponsible. And for once I struggle to blame the government for this. Yes, they procrastinated on making a decision, but once made they’ve been very clear on what you should and shouldn’t do. That thousands are ignoring it is on those people.
Also, surely thr train companies should be limiting the amount of people in the trains?
Listening to the news and it says that the new variant could add 0.4 onto the R rate. Has the R rate ever been below 0.6 since March ?
If the London trains were heaving last night as some reports suggest to generously spread the "new strain" around the UK, can't they be heavily fined like other establishments like pubs and gyms that defied rules?
I'd also love the government to be able to fine the individuals involved in the exodus, using the contactless payment details taken for the train ticket sales... But that is wishful thinking.
that defied rules
How did they do that then? I suspect they didn’t have the mechanism quick enough to limit online ticket sales, nor the personell to hold the baying mob from the carriage doors. That’d need a police effort, organised within about a 3hr window of the announcement.
Perhaps the only thing the could have done is refused to run the trains. Perhaps the fact they did run them is morally irresponsible to you and me but not against the law.
It’s too late now anyway, I imagine we can expect to see this new strain popping up outside the SE within the next few weeks.
It was inevitable. Johnson told people they could plan to go back to their parents for Xmas, despite the advice he received that they shouldn’t, and then pulled the plug far too late. For what it’s worth, my family in London did the thing that most in that situation have, and sadly cancelled all plans to travel for Xmas… but the very small proportion of people that shifted to travelling early is still likely to be a lot of people in absolute terms.
we can expect to see this new strain popping up outside the SE
It already has.
[ Cummings fled London to go to parents when he thought they he and his wife were carrying the virus, and it wasn’t Christmas - people travelling last night probably assumed/hoped they weren’t carriers and already had plans to go home - they are still nowhere near making the same selfish move that he did, and he got to tell us from the Downing Street garden on all TV channels that he was just doing the right thing for his family. ]
I wonder what Dominic Cummings did?
Edit- Kelvin beat me too it
Kelvin beat me to it. How can this govt prosecute thousands of folk for essentially doing the same thing that Cummings did?
Can’t believe the “fair play to him” type comments. Boris has done a terrible job since the start, particularly terrible recently, now he’s playing catch up on the poor choices made so far.
It's the season of good will, being nice is nice and we get better results by encouraging good behaviour. Literally Dog Training 101.
The 'Fair Play' was due as this was not last minute (Eid had hours notice of cancellation).
The rest of the venality and incompetence he can not avoid the responsibility but if we nudge regularly we'll get what we want while letting him think he's played a blinder.
*slow handclap for the Londoners*
Nothing like a new strain, even more contagious, being crammed on a carriage with no opening windows, with a few hundred other people for a couple of hours, while heading to a different part of the country...
https://twitter.com/chrisshipitv/status/1340410423858900992