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Just got back from Tesco, todays Daily Heil front page is a triumph!!
Spain reckons about 5%
This compares UK and Spanish deaths. I know not like for like due to issues of recording C19 deaths accurately.
Patrick Vallance reckons 4%.
My depressing maths points me towards the low end of estimates.
I reckon the range is down towards 3% to 6%.
A_a is that the teachers one? If so, it just makes me want to give the editor a slap
Yeah, the teachers want a heroic death but those pesky unions are getting in the way!!
Tories and associated commentators championing the interests of disadvantaged children as a means to justify schools reopening is a new low in cynicism and duplicity. No mention of the massive cuts to local and national services over the last decade that have had a wholly negative impact on disadvantaged children and their families.
Does anyone have a feeling for how long we'll be socially distancing. The last I found was Chris Whitty saying at least till the end of the year. The RNLI in Wales are saying please dont do any watersports till social distancing is over (appreciate this could be in the exercise thread) while Welsh Gov are not now banning watersports. I'm trying to understand how viable a request this is from the RNLI. I've a feeling @TiRed suggested before that social distancing would be in place for 2 years or so, which makes it unlikely people will comply for that long
Scot Gov are also saying no watersports as it's a high risk activity that could involve emergency services. Cycling to be road and low risk paths.
https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-staying-at-home-and-away-from-others/pages/exercise/?fbclid=IwAR0CoC2L4cL_Y45M09jbDxOO8KbQDoSrnJfjrmjdQaKQoZzB0xHIDakcQ4s
Tories and associated commentators championing the interests of disadvantaged children as a means to justify schools reopening is a new low in cynicism and duplicity. No mention of the massive cuts to local and national services over the last decade that have had a wholly negative impact on disadvantaged children and their families.
Agree in principle - my wife spent election night writing a court report to get a vulnerable child put in a stupidly expensive secure placement, partly as a result of 10 years of austerity stripping away all the support services that may have stopped her getting to that point.
However, the academy head being quoted in the BBC has 45% kids on free school meals. His point that most of those kids would be better in a school setting than at home right now is probably true, but I have no idea how you square the circle of student and staff safety.
Does anyone have a feeling for how long we’ll be socially distancing.
Get the number of current cases low enough, and get track/trace/isolate measures in place, and then social distancing (especially in families) can be loosened, sooner. The government have taken that away from us by looking to send people back to commuting and schooling and traveling for pleasure, while current cases are too high, and they’ve only just started recruiting and preparing for track/trace/isolate. They are making their moves in the wrong order, and the price of that will be longer social isolation and more avoidable deaths. They are listening to their sponsors, not ‘the science’.
A few more weeks of the ‘old’ measures, and getting their shit together weeks ago as regards properly being prepared to remove those measures, and social distancing measures might have been much looser by September. I think we’re looking at them going in much their current form to Christmas now, based on nothing substantial, just the hope that the government learns and adapts over the summer… otherwise it’s the ‘new normal’ into next year… which will destroy hospitality and impact all our lives severely.
Get the number of current cases low enough, and get track/trace/isolate measures in place, and then social distancing (especially in families) can be loosened
100x this!
its only managable when we have test, track & trace in place & able to cope
@longdog That was what the Welsh govt had said, however this week they ammended the regulations to remove that. Now there is just a clause saying they expect activities to be low risk.
EDIT. re. teaching; I saw an interesting thing wondering about the impact on younger children of being sent back too early into hard social distanced learning on their perception of schooling and how that impacts life long learning. There was a picture of a french primary school with all the teachers in masks and the kids seperated and you could see how scary ti could be. I think its a very valid point.
Not sure on general population but for work we are looking at social distancing (business continuity plan) until probably Dec, but there will be less people on site now permanently as it has been shown we don't need that level of attendance
I’ve a feeling @TiRed suggested before that social distancing would be in place for 2 years or so
That was really for back to normal - e.g., international travel, holidays... I think public perceptions of social distancing will moderate behaviors till at least the end of the year. A small second bump would reinforce those behaviors. Test and trace capacity will ramp up dramatically now we have Abbot and Roche testing (but what WON'T be tested on those machines instead has not been discussed).
75K deaths for 3-10% of the population infected, herd immunity at, say 40%, means 225 - 700k deaths overall. Possible near-tern reduction in overall life expectancy if SARS-COV-2 becomes endemic, which will be mitigated first by treatment options and then (maybe) vaccination. This has been the path of HIV, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, and to a much lesser extent here.
And I've been chosen for serum donation for convalescing COVID19 patients, so at least I'll get a proper antibody test eventually.
Yeah, the teachers want a heroic death but those pesky unions are getting in the way!!
Rule of thumb is to ignore any minister who is telling someone to 'do their duty', whether to download a shitty app or teach our virusy children.
Interesting report on Sky this morning that COVID-19 will be "gone" from London within 2 months based on only 24 new cases a day currently.
I'm not sure I believe that, even without re-opening the transport hubs. I want to of course for everybody's sake , but also because this affects Year 6 Jnr as we've been asked by the school to consider our opinion on sending him to school amongst social distancing protocols in June 1.
In the meantime his new Secondary have been kind enough to send an online learning / well being pack for him to complete over the school hols as part of his introduction, and a lead up to a week of tests in September to gain an educational measure they've missed from SATS. He's going to be a busy lad.
EDIT. re. teaching; I saw an interesting thing wondering about the impact on younger children of being sent back too early into hard social distanced learning on their perception of schooling and how that impacts life long learning. There was a picture of a french primary school with all the teachers in masks and the kids seperated and you could see how scary ti could be. I think its a very valid point.
Very good point. But it won’t stop our Dear Leader’s demand for cannonfodder and the War Effort. ‘Gotta collect ‘em all‘ in the next few weeks leading up to school hols.
EDIT. re. teaching; I saw an interesting thing wondering about the impact on younger children of being sent back too early into hard social distanced learning on their perception of schooling and how that impacts life long learning. There was a picture of a french primary school with all the teachers in masks and the kids seperated and you could see how scary ti could be. I think its a very valid point.
Our Daughter (in reception) has been going to her school since the start of this and it has had no impact on her perception of schooling from a learning perspective. The kids in have been separated by 2m minimum in the class and have been playing in either large squares painted in the playground or they can leave the squares if they wish but must stay 2m apart. They are not allowed to enter a square that has a child in it already. All the kids in have adapted very well to this and some, including our daughter, are quite enjoying it.
Kids are very resilient and will adapt much quicker than the adults.
For those thinking that the kids will not maintain separation (I know this ignores the physical constraints of the buildings) and will just run around hugging and licking each other; this was not allowed prior to lockdown, as it is against the rules anyway, and it will not happen when they go back. There have been no cases of the kids breaking the rules over the last 7 weeks (I don't doubt you will get the class little shits breaking the rules but they will do that regardless and the risk is as low as reasonably practicable).
How does test, track and trace work if patients can be asymptomatic but still infectious? I can see how it might slow things down. But if you have people who don't know they are infectious going around infecting others, then isn't it just a matter of time before the number of cases overwhelmes your ability to test, track and trace and we are back to lockdown?
In France they reckon 4% had it.
Re schools, very few have reopened and with strict rules like 2 days a week, only mornings etc...
How does test, track and trace work if patients can be asymptomatic but still infectious?
It relies on someone in the chain having symptoms.
Yeah, the teachers want a heroic death but those pesky unions are getting in the way!!
Or as Boris would say:
Dulce et decorum est pro patria mori
30% of our pupils are in the poorest 10%. There are lots of issues at home and a lot of dependencies and illness. To be honest that's a worry. But the vast majority of these kids are not engaging so I want them in school with a degree of safety and relief from grinding poverty.
When we go back the sooner we go the more likely I'll get it, not something I want at 50 but I'm reasonably robust and fit.
Kids are very resilient and will adapt much quicker than the adults.
For those thinking that the kids will not maintain separation (I know this ignores the physical constraints of the buildings) and will just run around hugging and licking each other; this was not allowed prior to lockdown, as it is against the rules anyway, and it will not happen when they go back. There have been no cases of the kids breaking the rules over the last 7 weeks (I don’t doubt you will get the class little shits breaking the rules but they will do that regardless and the risk is as low as reasonably practicable).
Interesting to hear some real experience. I suspect how traumatised kids will be from this whole situation will be as much a reflection of their parents as it is the system they get at school, teachers will be doing their professional best regardless
30% of our pupils are in the poorest 10%. There are lots of issues at home and a lot of dependencies and illness. To be honest that’s a worry. But the vast majority of these kids are not engaging so I want them in school with a degree of safety and relief from grinding poverty.
When we go back the sooner we go the more likely I’ll get it, not something I want at 50 but I’m reasonably robust and fit.
Remember that their parents are in the social economic group already hit hardest by this virus. The worry about an early return for schools isn’t just about looking after staff, it is about it spreading the virus between households. Waiting another few weeks for the virus to be properly contained, and for track/trace/isolate to be in place to keep it contained, would make a return to schooling much safer (for parents and other family members, not kids and school staff).
To be honest track trace and inform ain't gonna work in bandit country.
Well, your school would be a vital source of data for track and trace. I know our government will be painting their version as being all down to the individual, but the reality of working systems elsewhere is that the really useful data comes from public bodies and companies, not apps on phones and the actions of individuals.
30% of our pupils are in the poorest 10%. There are lots of issues at home and a lot of dependencies and illness. To be honest that’s a worry. But the vast majority of these kids are not engaging so I want them in school with a degree of safety and relief from grinding poverty.
I wonder if the kids from that demographic are the ones whose parents are least likely to want them to go back / more likely to come up with reasons why they shouldn't. I don't mean this in any nasty way, it's more a reflection of a two tiered (or more) society but the ones who are most concerned about the impact on kids learning and future life prospects are the ones who will have the parents ensuring they engage and have the tools to do it. Those whose parents got nothing from school themselves are less inclined to ensure their kids re-engage.
My wife works at a good school but it's part of a trust and some of their partner schools from more challenging areas are worried about whether some kids will 'ever' go back while it is vaguely optional.
Don't fall for the fantasy that trace, test and isolate (don't forget the isolate part, it's essential even though no govt minister will utter the word for some reason) is not a panacea and will not suppress this under a back to business as usual scenario. It will help a bit, and allow us a bit more freedom to move and mix more like we used to, but that's all.
At the moment however, it doesn't look like the govt is even trying to achieve that much. I hope to be proved wrong on that.
The kids in have been separated by 2m minimum in the class and have been playing in either large squares painted in the playground or they can leave the squares if they wish but must stay 2m apart. They are not allowed to enter a square that has a child in it already. All the kids in have adapted very well to this
I admire your confidence, although I would question why your child was in school if you spent all day watching them and also assessing impacts on the other kids.
Can this school sort out 2m squares for everyone when 3year groups return? My sons school certainly does not have the space.
I admire your confidence, although I would question why your child was in school if you spent all day watching them and also assessing impacts on the other kids.
Can this school sort out 2m squares for everyone when 3year groups return? My sons school certainly does not have the space.
Your first paragraph makes no sense, unless you think teachers and parents wouldn't communicate in these strange times.
Your second paragraph assumes that the school will make no plans to adapt how they let kids use outside areas, reduce class sizes, adopt some sort of staggered for attendance or whatever. It is possible that some schools - not all, or even a majority - will find a way to make something work for their particular situation.
Don’t fall for the fantasy that trace, test and isolate (don’t forget the isolate part, it’s essential even though no govt minister will utter the word for some reason) is not a panacea and will not suppress this under a back to business as usual scenario. It will help a bit, and allow us a bit more freedom to move and mix more like we used to, but that’s all.
Agreed. The virus needs to be controlled by other means (such as those we have started dropping this week)… trace/trace/isolate is part of the next stage, to avoid another flare up. This government is doing all the ‘right’ things, but ‘not necessarily in the right order’.
[to be clear, it is not doing things in the right order, or in a competent fashion]
Bit disappointed by the Gov here in Wales.
They're avoiding the truth that we had a very low infection rate and the biggest danger to us is millions of people from other parts of the UK (it's the English but I don't want to make his a Welsh Independence argument) arriving here for leisure. Not easing lock down, but it's politically unpopular to ban travel between regions for obvious reasons. Covid has been all but eradicated in large areas of Wales, but we don't release local data.
They've released a vague, yet complex plan to ease lock down, at some point, and we might see small kids back in school, but not when. They also timed the release at the same time as a story from a Consultant at our largest Hospital saying we were only "one week away from being overrun" The facts are that our 32 Bed ITU was full for a day, there's currently 3 people with Covid in there and they're at 50% capacity over-all, an all-time record low. They're now apparently gearing up for a second spike - not sure they really need to, they've got 32 beds, the Massive Field Hospital 2 miles away has 500 beds now and could be increased to 2000, not all ITU but they have vastly more than they have in hospital, it's mostly, if not entirely empty of patients at the moment and being mothballed. Decommissioning it completely was discussed in a recent meeting before it was even finished.
not sure they really need to
Be ready. Be relieved when/if not needed.
The field hospital ITUs not being used should be welcomed… treating people in long established ITUs has be the better path, if it’s possible, no?
https://www.ft.com/content/ddf6b198-727b-43ec-a5e4-aef8b5d8fb06?
UK abandons total French exemption from 14-day quarantine for visitors
was always a bonkers idea
Probably asked before, but I have wondered who was going to staff the field hospital ITUs as I thought that there was a large number of staff vacancies in the NHS even before this all started. Just like to know from anyone who works in this area.
His point that most of those kids would be better in a school setting than at home right now is probably true, but I have no idea how you square the circle of student and staff safety.
Student safety has virtually nothing to do with it. Very few kids are going to get sick enough to die...
30% of our pupils are in the poorest 10%. There are lots of issues at home and a lot of dependencies and illness. To be honest that’s a worry. But the vast majority of these kids are not engaging so I want them in school with a degree of safety and relief from grinding poverty.
Quite how killing their parents and grandparents benefits the children is unclear.
Interesting to hear some real experience. I suspect how traumatised kids will be from this whole situation will be as much a reflection of their parents as it is the system they get at school
Certainly those with parents killed by this will be traumatised.
I suspect those who get sent to school where they are told you can't die from Corona Virus as per the information being sent out by or school are going to have a hard time being told they aren't allowed to say grandma died from it.
I make an exception for reception and Yr1 ... obviously every kid in places like Finland where they wouldn't even be in school is traumatised for life.
I wonder if the kids from that demographic are the ones whose parents are least likely to want them to go back / more likely to come up with reasons why they shouldn’t. I don’t mean this in any nasty way, it’s more a reflection of a two tiered (or more) society but the ones who are most concerned about the impact on kids learning and future life prospects are the ones who will have the parents ensuring they engage and have the tools to do it. Those whose parents got nothing from school themselves are less inclined to ensure their kids re-engage.
I don't see that connection between what is essentially free meals and childcare... or to put it another way is free childcare and free meals more or less attractive to a poor family where both parents need to work to just survive and are cooped up in a tiny flat with no garden or a wealthy family with a field out the back and stay at home parent that doesn't need to work?
Equally just because parents who got nothing (of value) from school doesn't place them that demographic...
It's not even like the chosen years will enable most families to go back to work... a fairly simple average kids per family and years between them shows this is as far from enabling most families to return as possible.
It’s not even like the chosen years will enable most families to go back to work… a fairly simple average kids per family and years between them shows this is as far from enabling most families to return as possible.
Good point.
The facts are that our 32 Bed ITU was full for a day, there’s currently 3 people with Covid in there and they’re at 50% capacity over-all
Ignoring the field hospital they can't staff ... why are people dying in care homes when there are empty beds?
[edit - you said ignore the field hospital - post deleted]
Ignoring the field hospital they can’t staff … why are people dying in care homes when there are empty beds?
Being brutally honest, most people in Care homes wouldn't be given an ITU bed anyway. There's nothing stopping the homes in-house Nursing team from requesting a hospital bed for a poorly patients if they felt they were too ill to be nursed in the home, but well enough to be expected to recover, this rarely happens though. Care home Nurses are 'regular' Registered Nurses plus they're supported by District Nurses and specialist Nurses (like my Wife) and they have access to Doctors.
I don't know how they're qualifying "care homes" as there's a big difference between residential care home and end of life Care and I admit being the husband of a Nurse who mostly Nurses end-of-life patients has made me hardened to this sort of thing, but lots of very old, very frail people are in care home waiting for something that wouldn't break the stride of someone younger and fitter to kill them. Bodies don't just stop working, dying of Covid would be considered 'Natural Causes' for a 97 year old who is bed ridden and has advanced dementia as would a cold, or UTI.
Good point.
Well the point is valid but it's not rocket science.
I mean it's so obvious I don't even need to download stats
If I was cynical I'd download them and see how instead it translates to maximising transmission to siblings at home.
Probably asked before, but I have wondered who was going to staff the field hospital ITUs as I thought that there was a large number of staff vacancies in the NHS even before this all started. Just like to know from anyone who works in this area.
There's no one solution, but recently retired staff and staff that have left the profession have be asked to return.
Clinics and electives have been cancelled.
People who would usually be in hospital have been discharged to be passed onto District Teams.
A&E has seen admissions down 75%
Staff who've found themselves without roles since the above have been redeployed either directly onto Covid wards, or more likely into roles so staff who who are better suited can be moved to Covid. 2 of my Wife's friends have been deployed to Covid, 1 in ITU and 1 on the normal Covid ward. I've even visited one, lots of scary signs, but staff don't both social distancing, it's pointless, you can't Nurse at 2 metres.
There was no point building a 2000 Field hospital and then trying to recruit fresh medics, Doctors take 7 years to qualify and Nurses 3, but many more years to be ITU spec, obviously either will do in a pinch.
I'm only commenting on Cardiff / Wales because I know a lot about it via my Wife, but Covid patients were given priority of course and there was scope to treat 2000 of them at a time in Dragon Heart, but the cost to other patients including Cancer patients was high, sadly terminal cancer patients have had their lives cut shorter because they couldn't have care.
I admire your confidence, although I would question why your child was in school if you spent all day watching them and also assessing impacts on the other kids.
Can this school sort out 2m squares for everyone when 3year groups return?
I know because we speak to our child to find out what she did at school and how she is coping with all this. You know, what responsible parents do. In addition I also speak to her teacher at drop offs and pick ups so I know exactly what has happened throughout the day.
I also requested and have the schools hazard analysis and risk assessment. They brought in an infectious diseases specialist to help formlate the analysis and RA. It is very thorough and the risks are clearly mitigated to reduce them to as low as reasonably practicable. I have been walked around the school and had each hazard and mitigation explained to me.
The school has the capacity in terms of space and teaching staff to bring just under 80% of the students back and as about only 50% of parents said they would send their kids back in then that poses no issue.
Anyway I expect your next sarcastic and condecending reply will only confirm that you are unwilling to listen to anyone elses experience as from your posts on this and other threads related to this subject show you are so entrenched in your views that any form of rational debate is worthless.
Anyway I expect your next sarcastic and condecending reply will only confirm that you are unwilling to listen to anyone elses experience as from your posts on this and other threads related to this subject show you are so entrenched in your views that any form of rational debate is worthless.
Yep I have no experience about schools at all.
Do you think every school has bought in an infectious disease specialist to do the RA?
In addition I also speak to her teacher at drop offs and pick ups so I know exactly what has happened throughout the day.
Wow, that must take hours!
Do you think every school has bought in an infectious disease specialist to do the RA?
My thoughts as well. My other half’s head had to have it pointed out to him that Monday’s all staff meeting of 70+ shouldn’t be held in one room. Hasn’t yet been convinced that RA are even required. By the end of Monday, I expect he will be.