Forum menu
I’d happily live in that pit town...
A) I’m guessing you haven’t, (I’m fortunate I’m a generation behind but the effects were plain to see when I was a lad, they still are).
Actually I still do. Lived here all my life. We once had one of the highest unemployment rates in the entire country.
I just don't agree. At all. You do what you can to save those in immediate danger - it's inhumane not too. Any problems after that, you deal with then. Other nations are already doing this, and I'm fairly certain, if anything, their economies will recover stronger than ever because they have actual foundations of a civilised society - something which seems to be rapidly slipping away from us.
. I’m not in favour of a strong economy because
For clarification strong economy vs a weak one.
Wife's hospital need some more standard surgical masks.
Was quoted as "expected June".
In good news, the training on the proper masks went well.
In more bad news, there was only one proper mask to train on. Good eh?
The library section for books about successful British government crisis response is, er, "tiny".
Surely its an absolute no-brainer that events like this, with tens of thousands of people travelling in from all over the shop, shouldn’t be going ahead?
What? But going to the football is important! Betting on the Gee Gees is important! Have you forgotten that we got through the war? And we won it! We're different, we're better. We don't need to do anything, it'll just pass us by because we're special. And if lots of people die then it's ok, they're old, and were already ill, they wouldn't have lasted long anyway. As long as we get to watch the bloody football that's all that matters.
I'm not an expert....
But I don't understand this. Flights from Milan are still landing in Edinburgh with absolutely no screening at all (Why are they landing at all.)
Only a third of those who are infected by the coronavirus demonstrate that by way of a spike in their temperature,” she said.*
“One difficulty with screening arrivals at airports is that people will be missed because they are not showing an increase in their temperature, which then gives false reassurance.
So you would still pick up 1/3 of infections. Isn't that worth doing? You can still tell everyone else that they may still be infectious & to take precautions.
Makes no sense to me.
* Scottish Health Minister
that public health england tracker is almost a day and a half out of date !
I think there is a deliberate 24hour delay in the reporting so the data can be confirmed.
Couple of things from the Guardian live feed:
"The majority of coronavirus infections may be spread by people who have recently caught the virus and have not yet begun to show symptoms, scientists have found.
An analysis of infections in Singapore and Tianjin in China revealed that two-thirds and three-quarters of people respectively appear to have caught it from others who were incubating the virus but still symptom-free.
The finding has dismayed infectious disease researchers as it means that isolating people once they start to feel ill will be far less effective at slowing the pandemic than had been hoped."
AND
Prof John Ashton, a former regional director of public health for north-west England, lambasted a lack of preparation and openness from the government and contrasted Britain’s response to that of Hong Kong.
“Right at the beginning of February, they [Hong Kong] adopted a total approach to this, which is what we should have done five weeks ago ourselves. They took a decision to work to three principles – of responding promptly, staying alert, working in an open and transparent manner,” he told the Guardian.
“Our lot haven’t been working openly and transparently. They’ve been doing it in a (non) smoke-filled room and just dribbling out stuff. The chief medical officer only appeared in public after about two weeks. Then they have had a succession of people bobbing up and disappearing. Public Health England’s been almost invisible.
“Boris Johnson should have convened Cobra himself over a month ago and had regular meetings with the chief medical officer with the evidence. The thing should have been fronted up nationally by one person who could be regarded as the trusted voice and who could have been interrogated regularly. That’s not happened.”
You do what you can to save those in immediate danger
Of course. No-one, out side of North Korea to my knowledge, is seriously advocating anything else. But (a) you can't save everyone* and (b) you do not do it at the cost of increased risk to everyone else.
*even if you could save everyone from covid19 those most likely to need saving are also very likely to die from something else instead in the short term.
These are not healthy 40 somethings or fit active teens, hell they're not even fit healthy 80 year olds. They're unfit, chronically ill 65+ year olds with a life expectancy without medical assistance of months at best when they're not dying of corona, a few years on average through the marvels of medical science. If you were faced with the very real choice of an extra year each for those most at risk in trade for 5 to 8 ish years off everybody else's? (8.4 being the difference in life expectancy between rich and poor in the UK in 2018 )
Daz you're trying to reduce a very complicated issue to a simple one where the solution is to lock everything down and...and...then what?
I don't particularly like our current government but they have a load of tough, tough choices to make here.
Stepping away from the rolling news amd predictions would be beneficial for lots of people. I'm tying to focus on the actionable things based on sound advice rather getting into a panic.
Its about taking sensible precautions. A mate is debating whether to see Orbital on Saturday with 1,000 others. He lives with his 70 yo Mum who has ongoing respiratory issues.
looks familiar
The idea that we’d trade lives for a strong economy just leaves me speechless. What are we without basic human compassion?
If you want to save lives you need money. If you want money, you need an economy. It's not just some nice-to-have thing that buys Jags for some people, it buys your food, heats your house, builds your house, saves your life, buys the food for the people who save your life. The way some people talk you'd think the government could just do everything for you if they could be bothered, and working is some kind of moral issue. It's not - your work is what makes the money that the government have to spend*. Without an economy, you have no job, and you still need food. If your job is farming then no-one has any food.
* unless you live in a communist state
another 134 new uk cases....
Still true in a communist state.
Daz you’re trying to reduce a very complicated issue to a simple one where the solution is to lock everything down and…and…then what?
Go back and read my posts. I'm not simplifying anything, I'm saying that the evidence of countries which are ahead of us shows that the rate of infection can be dramatically reduced by decisive and early action to enact mass testing/screening and quarantining and social distancing. We're not doing any of these, and instead are debating crackpot theories about herd immunity. The evidence also shows that if we do nothing or do it too late then the mortality rate will be much higher, and we'll inevitably have to impose much more drastic measures later.
Uk policy on this seems to be the same as brexit. Have our cake and eat it, ignore the naysayers and doom-mongers, and take solace from a misplaced sense of entitlement.
What he said.
When does the number of cases in the UK (590) overtake the number of posts in this thread (2017) ?
There are a shit load of kids close to taking SATS, GSCE’s and A levels who need their help?
And what sort of increased death rate amongst teachers, there families and pupils would be considered acceptable to offset this?
BaronVonP7
Member
I think there is a deliberate 24hour delay in the reporting so the data can be confirmed.
We've had our first confirmed case overnight that's not showing on the tracker so there is some delay
Uk policy on this seems to be the same as brexit. Have our cake and eat it, ignore the naysayers and doom-mongers, and take solace from a misplaced sense of entitlement.
Sounds like you're right!
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/health-expert-brands-uks-coronavirus-response-pathetic
Just got an email through from Polaris promoting their 'Pandemic Sale'. 10 seconds after I'd clicked on their site, someone had wisely got rid of that particular bit of marketing genius...
[url= https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49651503928_712572ca62_c.jp g" target="_blank">https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49651503928_712572ca62_c.jp g"/> [/img][/url][url= https://flic.kr/p/2iDwWhy ]Untitled[/url] by [url= https://www.flickr.com/photos/76951366@N02/ ]hutchinson2017[/url], on Flickr
Prof John Ashton, a former regional director of public health for north-west England, lambasted a lack of preparation and openness from the government and contrasted Britain’s response to that of Hong Kong.
I have several problems with the Ashton remarks. First, he says the politicians are like "19th century (something) playing a five-day game of cricket", as if that's a bad thing! Test cricket is the greatest form of cricket and therefore, of sport!
Second, he says, seemingly with a straight face, that Hong Kong's response is the model to which we should aspire; not entirely referencing the large People's Army sitting just on the mainland implicitly enforcing the decrees of the autocratic and unelected government. It seems he could have picked a better example... but realised that using China in his argument would be a bit beyond the pale.
Still, valid points, just terribly made.
Has Boris still got those water canons?
On the broader point, it seems increasingly clear that a large proportion of us are going to get coronavirus. At this point the only real way to prevent it would be to confine people to their homes; the virus is being transmitted by people who currently are showing no or limited symptoms, and who may never be confirmed as having it (because they're not being tested).
Mass confinement would of course have its own problems, not least including food - who's delivering Tesco.com, or stacking supermarket shelves? So it probably isn't very viable.
Sooo... most of us will get it. Most of us will recover; many of us won't be too debilitated. Some people will die, including people we know.
Flattening the curve is a possibility, but again it requires a fairly extensive form of confining people to their homes, with problems as above. Italy's attempt to close all shops, restaurants and bars isn't really resolving that issue - how are people eating?!
So what's the plan?
Australian gp confrimed postponed. Dear me.
Italy’s attempt to close all shops, restaurants and bars isn’t really resolving that issue – how are people eating?!
They’re keeping grocery and pharmacies open.
The evidence also shows that if we do nothing or do it too late then the mortality rate will be much higher, and we’ll inevitably have to impose much more drastic measures later.
And again, we're not doing nothing. Which evidence?
Germany has had it longer then Italy, its not gone off the charts and its not a police state.
We've had it just as long and it's not gone the way you insist it should have.
Your evidence is a graph [week old that said a week ago we'd be Italy in two weeks if that was true we should be much worse off than we are by now] that only shows the data which looks vaguely similar to the worst case, disregards the bits which are completely disparate from that case but markedly similar to each other, and only shows a handfull of sets of that truncated data to show how we're going to look like the global worst case scenario rather than tracing all the not-worst cases and saying hmm "whoa something is odd in Italy but these look alike, and then Japan is an outlier too, the solution is likely to be somewhere in the middle".
Add to that you've got different populations with different dispersal, different habits, different concentration, different environments, different ages, different public reactions, different national responses the list goes on.
You're likely comparing apples with bananas because the data to narrow it down to apples and pears, let alone just apples simply doesn't exist.
The outcome might be the same but just because I can set fire to a tree with matches doesn't mean they're lighting.
So what’s the plan?
So what’s the plan?
The plan is to attempt to control the rate at which people fall ill and require hospitalisation. Otherwise some people who require intensive care will not receive it. And, if it's a sensible one, to take major steps to reduce the exposure of the people in the most vulnerable groups.
Basically, everyone getting it in the next six weeks - bad. Everyone getting it over the next six to nine months - much better.
There is a halfway house between everyone staying home and a free-for-all where grandma is still going to bingo every week.
Italy’s attempt to close all shops, restaurants and bars isn’t really resolving that issue – how are people eating?!
They’re keeping grocery and pharmacies open.
Ah, didn't know that, makes sense. It's the tradeoff we have though - it allows some spread, but also means people can eat.
The outcome might be the same but just because I can set fire to a tree with matches doesn’t mean they’re lighting.
- shit analogy alert !
– shit analogy alert !
Yeah I rather struggled for one which was in sight of a reasonable one, feel free to improve on it!
Interesting about the temperature not being an indicator. I was refused a test here in Denmark because my temperature was not over 38, but been ill since Saturday and been exposed to someone ill after skiing in northern Italy. Been self isolating though and now it's severe testing only here as the number of cases has mushroomed.
When does the number of cases in the UK (590) overtake the number of posts in this thread (2017) ?
About six days, if we continue to follow Italy's trajectory.
Is that Brazilian John Oliver?
Oh….
he'll be fine, no other health conditions to worry about.
Mr Trump has had no significant medical problems. Mr Trump has had a recent complete medical examination that showed only positive results. Actually, his blood pressure, 110/65, and laboratory test results were astonishingly excellent.
A lengthy but (possibly?) interesting anaysis:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
We done this yet?
https://www.politics.co.uk/news/2011/10/18/boris-reveals-his-political-hero-the-mayor-fr
Cougar
SubscriberA lengthy but (possibly?) interesting anaysis:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca/blockquote >
+1 or actually +2 because I linked it on page 49. Really is a very useful explanation of how this works
I think links to that article are growing exponentially...
Three weeks now until Eurodisney holiday yay!
No sign of advice not to go so no chance of getting my 2k back yay!
I've seen ^ that post being shared many times on twitter but i dunno if id base my actions on someone who's only major publication is regarding the hidden structure behind star wars, it reads like hes gathered a lot of data together and wrote it up in a particular way to gain traction for his career.
I could be wrong but a quick search on his previous publications/writings contain mostly fluff media pieces
The Brazilian government has confirmed that president Jair Bolsonaro’s communications secretary Fabio Wajngarten has coronavirus just days after meeting Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago, Dom Phillips, in Rio de Janeiro, reports.
It said in a statement, confirming an earlier newspaper report:
<div class="quoted__contents">
The medical service of the Presidency of the Republic adopted and is adopting all the necessary preventative measures to preserve the health of the president of the Republic and the entire presidential committee which accompanied him on the recent trip to the United States, as well as presidential palace staff.
</div>
It added:
<div class="quoted__contents">
This is because one of the members of the group, Fabio Wajngarten, secretary of communication of the presidency of the Republic, is carrying the new coronavirus Covid-19, confirmed in a control test.
</div>
Wajngarten shared photos of himself with Trump and Mike Pence during the trip, as well as Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro and Trump dined on Saturday at Mar-a-Lago in Florida. In one video Wajngarten (wearing glasses) is seen just behind Trump and Bolsonaro.
The US government has been informed “so that they can adopt the necessary cautionary measures,” the statement said. Wajngarten is in home quarantine.
Would be such a shame if Orange Donnie has it.
Three weeks now until Eurodisney holiday yay!
No sign of advice not to go so no chance of getting my 2k back yay!
I'd give it a week before you're filling in a travel insurance form. You lucky Devil you, not many get to dodge the hell that is Eurodisney.
he's (Trump) not added brazil to the travel ban yet then ?
I’d give it a week before you’re filling in a travel insurance form
I do wonder if we're going to see a lot of insurers going bump in the not so distant future over this.
Which given how much pensions used to invest in them could turn out to be doubly crap for old folk.
I could be wrong but a quick search on his previous publications/writings contain mostly fluff media pieces
The data, charts and logic he presents are very easy to follow and make fairly good sense. it doesn't need a genius in data modelling and statistics to understand the simple concept of exponential growth, but it does require a decent story teller who can put the pieces together from available data. The fact that this is popular is that it easily explains something in non-academic language.
I linked it on page 49.
Ah, sorry for the duplicate, I missed it first time around.
Scarfolk Council have this sorted
I do wonder if we’re going to see a lot of insurers going bump in the not so distant future over this.
How many airlines and holiday companies are still going to be in business by the end of the year if this carries on?
The fact that this is popular is that it easily explains something in non-academic language.
It is "popular" - I haven't seen anyone credible post it - because it confirms some people's biases, if you want some proper information, follow the links I posted yesterday.
it doesn’t need a genius in data modelling and statistics to understand the simple concept of exponential growth
Ah, like all those expert epidemiologist types who aren't publishing this then?
We've had enough of experts thank you very much
BJ is about to give a press conference, I see schools being closed, advice to work from home/self distance people etc. Its getting pretty real now.
I was just made redundant and have 2 interviews lined up, chances of them being delayed seem worryingly high...
Schools aren’t being closed (yet).
Jp
Re. the herd immunity, a few weeks ago researchers were saying more young poeple were dying in the far east than expected becasue they had been previously exposed to various coronaviruses and the body was going into overdrive then failing. Has this now been disproven/dropped as a theory? Because if not I'm not convinced herd immunity is the gretest idea.
that chap on he news conference just now - 590 confirmed cases means about 10k actual cases.
that chap on he news conference just now – 590 confirmed cases means about 10k actual cases
Which is what the guy in the Medium article said. The article people are shouting down.
Re. the herd immunity, a few weeks ago researchers were saying more young poeple were dying in the far east than expected becasue they had been previously exposed to various coronaviruses and the body was going into overdrive then failing. Has this now been disproven/dropped as a theory? Because if not I’m not convinced herd immunity is the gretest idea.
Young people? All the stats say unless over 65, mortality rates are negligible at best
^ due to increase of immune system cytokine response in which antibodies produced to combat the virus start a cascade effect on the body and the immune system turns on itself, similar effects can happen in very healthy/fit young people with a strong immune system and also pregnant women as their immune system is on high alert to protect the foetus.
the look on his face doesn't inspire confidence
So one of the bits of advise coming out of cobra this afternoon, where the leaders of our great country and health experts gathered to keep us safe..
Old people over 70 should avoid going on cruises...
Is that it? The great pearl of wisdom these people have come up with to keep us safe...thats pretty much the best they have.. ?
Time is fast running out to minimise the impact of this and the government don't seem remotely willing to make some tough calls.
that chap on he news conference just now – 590 confirmed cases means about 10k actual cases.
Folks say same about italy. I can't work it if that's a good thing ie death rate is much lower than recorded) of if it just means we are even more fxxxxx
So containment phase lasted a week?
Doesn't seem to have been much containment.
Problem with meftys links is that reports commissioned 7 years ago when we had 1000s more hospital beds & austerity hadnt spent quite so long hammering social care sector in the nuts.
the look on his face doesn’t inspire confidence
He looks a bit ill. Stress from being completely out of his depth? That medical officer looks terrified too. This thing about fatigue at being isolated is rubbish. If old people are at risk they should stay in. I have no idea why they are shying away from this message.
Theres a lot of sense being made in Telly. Theres a lot of politically influenced negative conjecture on here.
I guess they know that (a) people are not great at taking orders for a long time - if you stayed home for 3 weeks solid, and felt fine, then you'd increasingly get tempted to venture out, and (b) the weakest simply *can't* be left alone for too long without other significant consequences.
I'm pretty sure that all options lead to potential bad outcomes, but I've no idea how to choose which is going to be least bad. On the face of it at least, they are listening to experts for once. Would be reassuring if the experts around the world were concluding more similar things though!
Cheers @somafunk couldn't remember the reasoning- so is it an issue if we all get it now and then reappears at a later date?
We’re moving into the delay stage, which in this government’s case seems to mean delaying doing anything until it’s too late.
They don't give a **** about it spreading further at all do they?
Over 45 other countries, With fewer (known) cases than ours have taken the extreme measures of closing schools, Banning sporting events and gatherings.
What do Britain think they know that these other countries don't?
It's ok we'll British this thing out!
They don’t give a **** about it spreading further at all do they?
Because they know it will. Current estimate is that 80% of us will get it. It's all about the when rather than the if - if we all catch it at once the NHS will implode.
Because they know it will. Current estimate is that 80% of us will get it. It’s all about the when rather than the if – if we all catch it at once the NHS will implode.
Do Denmark and Ireland etc not know this?
To all those bemoaning the UK gov approach... The gov here in Germany isn't too dissimilar. Football matches behind closed doors, no gatherings over 1000 people, there are around 25 schools closed in Munich alone and those returning from Italy are told to quarantine their kids,but everyone (with exceptions like myself) carries on more or less as normal. The trains are full with commuters.
Lots of friends have recently returned with kids from their ski holidays in Italy. It's only a 3 hour drive from here.
People are beginning to question why everything remains business as usual given neighbouring countries are taking more drastic measures.
Although it's odd that Germany has many infections but relatively few deaths, 1900 and 4 respectively.
They’re unfit, chronically ill 65+ year olds with a life expectancy without medical assistance of months at best when they’re not dying of corona, a few years on average through the marvels of medical science.
This sums up most of the over 75s I know. All kept alive through various pills, inhalers and regular check ups.
I'm amazed they're taking such a massive risk on this. It's one thing if the science is saying cancelling sporting events etc will make little difference, but going against what other countries who are further down the line are doing looks like irresponsibility. They talk about the behavioural psychology element of it, which I don't deny, but by not demonstrating clear decisive action they'll erode confidence and potentially increase panic. They need to be seen to be doing something, as people expect clear demonstrable action from their government in times of crisis. Telling people not to go on cruises but otherwise carry on isn't going to cut it, and If/when it goes tits up people will be calling for Boris's head.
Over 45 other countries, With fewer (known) cases than ours have taken the extreme measures of closing schools, Banning sporting events and gatherings.
Which of these countries were successful in their methods?
I don't understand why our response seems to be different to other countries.
Our medical experts must be advising differently to other countries, which means know one has a scooby
Lets hope we look back at this in a couple of months and go, see we were right, all a big bunch of over reacting.
I was told hope isn't a strategy...I'd rather we took a hit and did our utmost to preserve life than leave it to chance when the odds are a bit scary for certain demographs
so is it an issue if we all get it now and then reappears at a later date?
I’m not sure, all I’ve learned about the immune system over the past few years is directly related to my spms diagnosis and I don’t have the knowledge to extrapolate what I do know about the function of the immune system to other illnesses, especially when caused by viral illnesses.
I follow the “if you don’t know or aren’t 100% sure then stfu”
They’re was a post on a large immunology forum a few weeks ago explaining that as those in certain undeveloped countries had been exposed more often to similar Coronavirus outbreaks, then their immune system went into overdrive by recognising the virus and sending their immune system into meltdown
Which of these countries were successful in their methods?
Hubei went from 1000s of new daily cases to dozens in a few weeks. South Korea brought it under control within a couple of weeks. Jury is still out on Italy and Iran as not enough time has passed yet.
seems to be different to other countrie
My 2p is he’s taking a gamble. I haven’t seen anything to suggest that closing schools would “do more hard than good” I can’t imagine why that would be the case.
He knows that if schools close now, it’ll be a big knock for the economy - markets dropped 10% today, they’re saying it’s the worst drop since the 80s, well shitfire I remember because I was working in banking at the time the credit crunch hit and that was going to be the end of days, for shares at least this is worse somehow.
Anyway, schools and childcare places closed means millions of workers either WFH or just don’t work, that’s a big deal for the economy and will likely trigger a recession if it hasn’t already, a recession which will be reported at the end of the year, just when they’re trying conclude Brexit - he knows if he has to cancel, or even delay Brexit he’s dead politically.
I’d bet he’s gambling on a bit of luck with numbers carrying us to Easter when the kids are off for 2 weeks anyway to keep the economy going.
Like the Scientist Sir whatshisnamew said after Boris, we have no immunity against this. My daughters class had a case of Hand Foot and Mouth in the last few weeks, no usually for a primary school. 4 kids got it in her class. If I understand him (and I probably don’t) when Coronavirus arrives most of not all of them will get it because they’re 5 and spend all day touching their face and anything else they see. None of them will get very ill thankfully, but 1 kid in my daughters class with CV means 30 in days, than it’s 30 families so that’s 90+ and soon enough it’ll reach their grandparents.
I think he’s taken a gamble with other people’s lives.