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People’s behaviour is intrinsically linked to their perceived likelihood of direct impact. See speeding. Without that close link then changing behaviours is challenging. The media reporting that everyone has comorbidities reduces that perceived likelihood. Pregnancy is a comorbidity btw. The problem with what is a rare event, isn’t that it is rare, it’s the fact that the susceptible sample size is so large, so total numbers are still big. At the beginning I said that people will know somebody who knows somebody who has died. That’s not as common as knowing someone directly (which I do). But looks about right.
We’re at the knowing someone who’s had it stage. The potential for mortality is about 0.5% of the population of 1/200. That’s pretty good odds and much better than it could have been for SARS-CoV-1 (1/10!). If this had been a transmissible form of that virus, the streets would be deserted and we’d all be inside waiting for that vaccine. Mercifully it is not.
Poop well done for being the better person. It’s hard. But have not seen my sister’s children since January. Zoom doesn’t cut it and they are a family of five in Tier 3. So we can’t both visit them anyway! But in six months things will look a LOT better. Of that I am in no doubt.
@kimbers, we're in a similar position. Eldest daughter is confined to her room for 2 weeks (allowed to use the bathroom obvs, can't get round that risk), youngest is still getting the school bus. Both at the same school.
Fathomer, the car park is permanently full and people are so desperate to get in there they'll block the roundabout at the entrance. Unfathomable.
We can argue the toss as to whether we should have been more ambitious, but we saw it out until a vaccine was developed. So we’ve got that going for us. Which is nice.
I'll offer my congratulations if we get past January/February without overwhelming the NHS. This government still has the chance to **** up the logistics of vaccine delivery, relatively few people will be vaccinated in the next couple of months, and the consequences of Christmas remain to be seen.
Given we are back to cases rising over the last 5 days, we are already well on the way. Will they change the Christmas rules?
@BillMC you're local ish then. I completely agree, it's bonkers, the roundabout blocking has happened since the place opened years ago. However, there is a proper food shop on there (M&S food hall) and a pharmacy (Boots).
Annoyingly I've got to venture over there tomorrow to pick up a Christmas present that I couldn't get delivered, will wait till pretty much closing time.
Will they change the Christmas rules?
There's no point now. The long period of miscommunication and muddling means that the relevant population will not change its behaviour.
I would personally try to extend the school holidays on either side of Christmas by a couple of weeks, but I'm sure that's considered politically unpalatable as well.
I'm glad they are involving the NHS but I'm sure they're more than prepared to point the finger of blame at the NHS when the government f it all up like they have everything else. It will be another excuse for further privatisation. Serco seems to be the Churchill family's revenge for the 1945 Labour government and the creation of the modern welfare state.
F*** clapping in Spring. Going out and banging on a saucepan. Well. Bloody. Done. Utter hypocritical ** many of them. Go out on your doorstep on a sunny Thursday to clap then go on FB to moan about not being able to go to the pub. God forbid having to put on a mask for 5 minutes in the co-op, the utterly terrible infringement on their civ libs. The horror! Wearing a mask for 5 minutes in a shop is absolutely the LEAST anyone can do during this. Jesus, I find it more uncomfortable to gargle Listerine twice a day after doing my teeth.
Well said....could not agree more..
MCTD, you wrote...
We should certainly have bitten the bullet on quarantine and international travel from earlier on BUT at a practical level (I’m not using this to justify the government’s criminal inaction) the volume of international travel to, from and through the UK is on a completely different scale to Australia and New Zealand. That doesn’t mean action shouldn’t have been taken
Yes, you're right but the fact that johnson's govt made absolutely no effort is negligence.
It would have been a difficult decision no doubt but how many lives would have been saved?
To quote Dr Phil Hammond who writes as Private Eye's MD 'It was never a choice between protecting citizens from Covid or protecting them from economic harm; you have to prevent Covid to protect economic harm'.
Well said….could not agree more..
Aye, agreed.
Wee question, just how is mask use where you are? was out for a run yesterday with a young fella who lives in London but has been working from home recently so has moved back in with parents here, and he is adamant that mask use in the city is 50/50? I was quite surprised at that, as it's very rare I see anyone in a shop or supermarket without one.
I’m E Sussex. On trains, in shops it’s close to 100% now. My local village coffee shop won’t allow you in without one, whatever the reason. Correctly or not, their view is that if you can’t wear a mask, their need for protection outweighs your need for a coffee.
Yes, you’re right but the fact that johnson’s govt made absolutely no effort is negligence.
I did call it criminal inaction. Just because it would have been hard didn't mean it shouldn't be done.
Here in Brexit central Erewash, mask wearing is pretty good - can't remember the last time I saw someone not wearing a mask in a shop (though I don't go out much). Lots wandering up the street without masks in between shops, and social distancing within shops isn't always the best.
I think it helps that its so cold wearing a mask is actually quite pleasant! Certainly more people wearing a mask outside than there were in summer I think
Tier 2 for me in N.Yorks, Tier 3 for daughter in Darlington.
I have no concerns about crossing between them to collect her and to do food shopping.
Just a shame for her 7th birthday tomorrow we can’t make our only eating out trip I’d have considered. Drive through Happy Meal and chocolate milkshake it is. Not sure what she will choose....
‘It was never a choice between protecting citizens from Covid or protecting them from economic harm; you have to prevent Covid to protect economic harm’.
I agree.
Worrying stuff coming out of the Welsh Govt briefing today. Looks like we'll be locked dwon pretty swiftly, or at least local areas will be.
I just wish our firebreak had been a bit longer and stronger
Well, something's going on in Wales..
England and NI seeing rises now too, of course. Scotland doing well it seems.
Went for a walk at lunch time at the local water park. It is normally rammed. It was eerily quiet...very odd.
Firebreaks are a bit like diets. If you go back to your bad ways the weight comes back on.
@scotroutes - in briefing they said more in hospital than in first wave peak, 'catastrophic' levels in some areas.
We have banned alcohol now and places have to shut at 6 so that might mitigate things. THey talked about shutting schools too i think.
If you go back to your bad ways the weight comes back on.
THIS is what's happening. The dynamics of viral spread are pretty clear now. Just been predicting deaths from cases using some nice regressions. After the "testdemic" from late summer, deaths are looking pretty well predicted from cases about 14 days earlier. Nothing unusual except the precision looks impressive.
It's unpalatable, but lockdowns prevent spread and cases then fall. Balancing an exponential process is not easy. But that is the job of our leaders.
But that is the job of our leaders.
> looks around ... damn <
I really wish "our leaders" ... and even more importantly our media ... where making it more clear that the vaccination programme will help us reduce social distancing middle of next year, not this Christmas.
Is it likely that the Welsh Govt will cancel the Christmas "amnesty"?
Looks like big spike in Swansea area.
Had the "are you going to come to Prestatyn" for Xmas conversation with mum yesterday, I expressed serious doubts due to positive test results in my section very recently and I'd hate to pass Covid on to my retired mum, who like me thinks she had it in March. Not to mention my gut feeling that social distancing on the trains I need to use during the five day amnesty will be a disaster zone compared to the summer, especially on my return leg on the 28th, when so many will be travelling to be at work on the Tuesday.
Plus travelling via Newport South Wales is a good deal cheaper than other options from Southampton... But with this spike, I reckon that's the final nail in the dilemma coffin.
If by luck my rota stays the same for Xmas 2021, I have another rare extended Xmas break that will allow me to spend Xmas with my mum and sister for the first time in over ten years. By which time, mum will have hopefully had a vaccine and my better half will hopefully be a fit state to come with me after her second prolonged breathing issue episode from mid October until now (and is still being suggested as a second Covid infection by NHS with a false negative postal swab kit result).
Once my mum has been vaccinated, hopefully by March, I'll endevour to travel up there.
thanks
Question regarding the various vaccine phases.
We recently rolled out the flu vaccine in Scotland to all over 65s plus those with pre existing conditions. One of those conditions is asthma, so as a suuferer i called my gp to see why I wasn't included. Apparently I'd been missed off the list but was eligible and I should just call the trust vaccination hotline and they'd sort me out. All very easy.
But am I right in thinking that same list will be used to prioritise the covid vaccinations, and as such it's probably worth a call to my gp to make sure I've definitely been added on for next time?
Or will they be drawing up a list from scratch? Don't want to be pissing off the surgery by calling turn up demanding to be on the 'the vaccine list' when we are months away from actually getting it, but at same time I don't want to be missed off due to oversight as I was with the flu shot..
But am I right in thinking that same list will be used to prioritise the covid vaccinations, and as such it’s probably worth a call to my gp to make sure I’ve definitely been added on for next time?
'severe asthma' - yes
'mild or moderate' - not as far as I can tell.
Not sure which category I fall in - I was deemed 'extremely vulnerable' and told to shield in the first lockdown, but I think the criteria may have changed since.
So I'm definitely eligible for a free flu jab, but I'm not holding my breath to be getting this one early.
Or will they be drawing up a list from scratch? Don’t want to be pissing off the surgery by calling turn up demanding to be on the ‘the vaccine list’ when we are months away from actually getting it, but at same time I don’t want to be missed off due to oversight as I was with the flu shot..
In answer to your query, I'd give it a few weeks and then chat to your GP and ask which category you've been placed in. No need to demand to be on any list, I'm sure they would be happy to let you know (as long as they've actually been told anything).
Well, I now live in the epicentre for the pandemic. Medway in Kent. Which is awesome.
Army now carrying out mass testing in the area.
The thing is, it hardly feels like there is even a tier 3 lockdown to be honest.
Pretty surreal.
I had a chat with the in-laws last night about Christmas and vaccine complacency - explaining that this was the biggest risk to them over the next few weeks - "well it's interesting you you say that, as we were just talking today about going into town to try to do some Christmas shopping, and going round to June's for some mulled wine..... don't you think we should?"
I'm trying not to tell them what to do - rather just explain the risks, and what they can do to mitigate those risks. Knowing the MiL and FiL, they'll catch it from hugging people in the queue for the vaccine.
‘severe asthma’ – yes
‘mild or moderate’ – not as far as I can tell.
Nhs class anyone that has a lung condition that's not severe (such as asthma, COPD, emphysema or bronchitis) as moderate risk or clinically vunerable, and given asthma sufferers are ahead of anyone else under 65 for a flu jab I assumed the same would be said for the covid jab.
Severe asthma put you in the high risk group according to the nhs site so I'd expect if you fall under that category youd be looking at a jab around the same time as they roll it out to the 70 year old plus groups..
My dad has got his vaccination appointment on 16th - he's 80+ and has COPD, but pre covid was very active with gym, swimming, many holdiays (cruises of course). Ma still waiting to hear but is a bit younger and fewer health complications.
Care home messaged my brother to say that my 90 year old mum has been offered the vaccine and agreed - good news.
An Openreach Engineer walked into my house yesterday with absolutely no PPE. Yes I know, hindsight is a wonderful thing and I should have stopped him.
Should I complain to Openreach? I think yes.
Were you close to him? Did you spend a lot of time with him? What PPE beyond a mask did you expect? We're you really at risk?.
No mask, no gloves, enclosed space, he mixes with other households. I did my best to keep away but I don’t like leaving a stranger* in a room alone.
* despite getting the announcing texts he wasn’t even dressed like an engineeer, with no ID visible. If I hadn’t seen him park up and getting out of an Openreach van I would have told him where to go.
I feel all the above taken into account is pretty irresponsible of Openreach.
If you don't have the minerals to say to him at the time, don't then go complaining now.
Here we go.
There’s nothing wrong with my balls thanks, but the job needed doing and I was in a fluster to get it done so I could submit a considerable contract to a client. I was stressed and not thinking. Like I said, I should have told him to piss off, but equally he shouldn’t have approach the door as was and a responsible person/company should enforce that.
Last week we had a Sky Engineer in, exact opposite - mask, gloves, stepped back from the door, asked to clear a distanced path to the box.
The reason for the report is not to get anything for myself but I’m thinking of all the other people he’s visiting - it should be prevented as he’s a potential spreader in waiting.
Report him and then put a post-it note on the door with a check list of what is appropriate for these lowly workmen to wear when visiting your castle.
If the next one turns up naked without PPE ask a grown up for help.
Maybe HE was in a fluster to get stressed and not thinking. Or is that just an office job thing?
Wow. How facetious, I wonder sometimes how people enjoy their day with the misery they carry around.
once again you don’t like the response,
I didn't say I didn't like the response, I replied on the basis of your assumption that I didn't have the guts to speak to him, which is incorrect on your part, and unnecessary to the question. You didn't have to reply that way or with any emotive content, yet you chose to, both you and El Shalimo.
Here we go? You're asking a load of randoms online whether you should complain, once again you don't like the response, so why ask? If you've made up your mind then moan to them ffs, get on with it.
He got out his van with a coat on, didn't he?.
I’ve had concerns with some trade persons. Had to go to the local plumbase for some copper fittings to deal with an emergency at home before carpet was being fitted the next day.
Lots of Trade in and out ignoring max 2 customer max signage, not a mask in sight, coffee from the instant machine being drunk with a couple of chaps leaning up on the counter gassing, a full bottle of sanitizer with the pump lid still screwed down. Chap who served me wiped his hands on is nose before passing me my bag of fittings. And it was me who got funny looks for going in with a mask on!
I did my best to keep away but I don’t like leaving a stranger* in a room alone.
I know how you feel, I'm also aloof and constantly in a state of high alert when an untrustworthy working class chap comes to my house to fix stuff. What if he finds my secret stash of Mr Kipling French Fancies? What if he cannot conjugate the verb to walk in Danish? Will he breathe the same air as me? Do I really have to offer them a hot drink? They've probably never seen Denby pottery, what if they drop the mug? Etc etc
Now that has got me hankering for a Fondant Fancy. Damn you!!!
Elshalimo..you are coming across like a bit of a prick I'm afraid. Not sure why you are making it out to be a 'class' issue here? I mean..
I know how you feel, I’m also aloof and constantly in a state of high alert when an untrustworthy working class chap comes to my house to fix stuff. What if he finds my secret stash of Mr Kipling French Fancies?
Makes you sound like you have a bit of a chip on your shoulder really..
I suspect this has been answer previously, but re. the vaccine, why are the older folk getting it first?
To me the logic would be to vaccinate the spreaders first, school kids, those at uni, etc. then those who are key workers, then those who are needed to keep the economy going (starting with the youngsters who want to get out and about first), then the older folk last.
I know those who are older are much more vulnerable, but they're also easier to shield whilst the vaccine is rolled out to everyone else.
easier to shield whilst the vaccine is rolled out to everyone else.
10s of thousands of dead pensioners would disagree that they are easier to shield.
Because we need to make sure they're around to enjoy the Brexit they voted for?
why are the older folk getting it first?
Bluntly, to stop them from dying. You’ve correctly identified the two ways of doing this, inoculate the vulnerable ones, or inoculate the spreaders, in the end the result is about the same; the spreaders will infect the vulnerable , and they’re going to die, or inoculate the oldies so that when the spreaders give it to them, they’re immune.
I think the french are vaccinating the spreaders rather than oldies, so it’ll be an interesting comparison
Protect the most vulnerable, the vaccine is a treatment to lessen the severity of infection isn't it? If you vaccinate all the kids and students first, you'll have lost a fair few vulnerable people by the time you get to them.
Because we need to make sure they’re around to enjoy the Brexit they voted for?
😂🤣
Serious answer..there is no evidence I am aware of it stops transmission.. it probably will, but vacinating the spreaders may not stop prevent transmission
What I would say however is that I think younger folks who are classed as highly vunerable should be getting it before a 90 year old who, as harsh as it sounds, probably has a fairly limited life expectancy anyhow..
I suspect this has been answer previously, but re. the vaccine, why are the older folk getting it first?
Burden of healthcare - which is the same reason for the influenza vaccine. The trials have all demonstrated an impressive reduction in serious disease. they were not designed to look at transmission. Hence vaccination, at the least, will keep people out of hospital.
Here's an analysis of the three vaccines - It's not hard to spot the mRNA vaccines. Vaccine efficacy is 1 - relative risk, so 1 - number on vaccine with symptoms/number on placebo with symptoms. A bit of a painful statistic, since it has a range of minus infinity (placebo works, vaccine doesn't) to 1 (vaccine works perfectly). The bounds needed for registration are a mode bigger than 0.5 and a lower 95% credibility interval above 0.3. I show both of these on the plots.
There is strong evidence from the plots (0% overlap) that the mRNA vaccines work better than the hi/hi Oxford/AZ vaccine. There is a 10% chance that the 90% from the low/Hi dose could be by chance! Oxford/AZ are running another trial to look more like the mRNA vaccines and tighten up the wide 90% distribution.
Because we need to make sure they’re around to enjoy the Brexit they voted for?
This thread really needed that comment, it had gone a bit weird again for a couple of hours.🤣🤣
But it's a fair point, well made.
why are the older folk getting it first?
Bluntly, to stop them from dying. You’ve correctly identified the two ways of doing this, inoculate the vulnerable ones, or inoculate the spreaders, in the end the result is about the same; the spreaders will infect the vulnerable , and they’re going to die, or inoculate the oldies so that when the spreaders give it to them, they’re immune.
I think the french are vaccinating the spreaders rather than oldies, so it’ll be an interesting comparison
Exactly this, they're aiming to get everyone over 50 who'll have it vaccinated in a few months, this could reduce hospital admissions and deaths by 99%, but even vaccinating the over 70s first will massively reduce those numbers which will 'fix' one of the biggest fears/problems, the NHS being overwhelmed.
From a political point of view, all being well from a combination of vaccine and natural seasonal differences we may well be seeing a huge reduction in cases in Spring which they'll probably use to reduce restrictions.
Well, something’s going on in Wales..
I might argue that some sections of society in Wales are pre-disposed to be utterly useless at containing a virus due to their complete lack of giving a shit, but mostly it's just our firebreak came earlier than the English one and ended sooner.
I don't think we've confirmed our Xmas rules yet, I think most people assume we'll follow the English ones, but it's going to be hard I think.
We've in all but name closed pubs here now, they can open, but only until 6pm and they cannot serve alcohol, unsurprisingly most have decided to close and furlough staff. They've been pretty clear that it's socialising and especially socialising when alcohol is involved that's driving transmission here. Bars aren't happy of course and who can blame them, they've missed the whole office party season, if they're not allowed to serve over xmas it'll be a disaster.
With my marketing head on, if I were in charge of a Pub / Bar etc I'd be pinning my hopes on holding a whole summer of events, if last summer taught us much it's that you can get away with a lot in Summer virus-wise and with a fast vaccine roll out there's a chance they'll be able to do so restriction-free, I just hope they can hold on long enough.
why are the older folk getting it first?
More or Less on the World Service covered this earlier this morning. As well as reducing hospital admissions it also works in terms of years of life saved as the mortality is so dependant on age.
WHO spokesperson on Radio 4 yesterday also pointed out that given the limited amount of vaccine available it would have little effect on transmission with the current high rates of transmission.
More or Less on the World Service covered this earlier this morning. As well as reducing hospital admissions it also works in terms of years of life saved as the mortality is so dependant on age.
Also David Spiegelhalter yesterday on PM on R4. Basically lifetime goes up linearly with age (!!) whereas likelihood to die of Covid goes up exponentially, so better to give it to old people first.
He’s hardly unbiased though 😉
So, how many old folk will be need vaccinating before restrictions lift?
Given the impact on younger folk is minimal, we'll presumably need to stop measuring cases and move to another measure?
Given the impact on younger folk is minimal, we’ll presumably need to stop measuring cases and move to another measure?
Cases has always been a red herring.
You need to look at admissions and NHS capacity
Cases has always been a red herring.
Actually, that was certainly true during the summer and into September. Since then the situation has died down a little bit. I've just done a forward projection of deaths using cases 14-21 days previous across the UK and things look pretty good. Some areas are over-predicted (no bad thing) reflecting the higher than proportional testing, but if I used the relevant age range I think things would look good. I validated the analysis by predicting from 01-Nov with a precision of 10 deaths per day. That's usable;
The bands are a 95% confidence interval for the mean (think rolling mean), the prediction interval for individual observations is wider. The reason for such projections is because vaccination at who-knows-what levels and who-knows-where regions means that the underlying assumptions for SEIR modelling will be challenging (there won't be public records).
And some good news! Deaths are stable in Week 48 - Lockdown effects fed through for a reduction in the North West.
So, how many old folk will be need vaccinating before restrictions lift?
Given the impact on younger folk is minimal, we’ll presumably need to stop measuring cases and move to another measure?
God knows, most of them, I’d bet Spring comes first.
I think the R rate has been the true measurement of choice of the Government, it’s the press that pushes cases.
I think, given the choice the Government would like to stick to deaths and admissions as they fall they’ll want a massive ‘feel good’ boost.
It’s nice to see the first patients getting their injections today, and as usual they’re being given by some senior nurses who’ve had to find their uniform from the back of the wardrobe and try to remember how to do it. Most wouldn’t have touched a patient in years. 😉
Will tier 2 have a noticeable impact on reduction of cases/admissions in those areas?
My gut feeling says that schools closing for Xmas Will make the biggest difference.
Kryton - ignore the trolls with a chip on their shoulder. Anybody entering your house should have the manners to wear a mask in the current environment. I imagine openreach mandate it for their staff too.
I'd agree with P-Jay's thought on some parts of Wales being completely unable to social distance effectively. Large parts of the Valleys and other old mining areas are used to living on top of each other all the time, whether that's all in the same workplace or constantly socialising in each other's houses or the pub.
I'm actually planning for the christmas restrictions to be worse here than England and having to spend the time at home on my own. Hopefully I'll get to see may parents as a minimum but the way that the graphs are rising is now better than before the firebreak. I fully expect England's graphs to go the same way but they had a break of double the length and a shorter run-up to christmas so have an advantage there.
Either way the next few months are looking grim as vaccine roll-out will be nowhere near fast enough to save this winter.
Could be England that "closes" the border this time around?
A few months ago I was planning to have my mum stay for Xmas - looking to do all I could to self isolate in the preceding 10 days.
We’ve now decided it’s not worth it. She will be vaccinated early next year (72) so we will have a big get-together then.
I’d agree with P-Jay’s thought on some parts of Wales being completely unable to social distance effectively.
I'm quite sure Wales isn't unique in that respect.
I wonder if Bill Gates is enjoying controlling those old biddies they’ve vaccinated...
Have you not seen Exorcist 3? That's how these things start...
I wonder if Bill Gates is enjoying controlling those old biddies they’ve vaccinated…
If he could inject them with the ability to use any technology that came into public use in the 1990’s onwards; that would be a great help to society.
@Kryton57 - I was winding you up earlier. Apologies if I've offended you.
FWIW I hate Mr K's French Fancies, they're foul.
I found it amusing for some reason that the first man to get the vaccine was called William Shakespeare!
I wonder if Bill Gates is enjoying controlling those old biddies they’ve vaccinated…
He'll only be able to that if the 5G site local to University Hospital, Coventry is up and working, someone may have set fire to it....
Is there a vaccine thread/poll/discussion or is all on this thread?
Who else has seen the clip of Hancock trying to cry? I very nearly threw my phone at the wall. It’s like the most outrageous episode of The Thick of It