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Has this been discussed yet?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54818615
Would you guys go to the Netherlands right now for 2.5 times the money you're currently on - or would you be too worried about the rest of the world blocking travel entirely from the Netherlands?
@oakleymuppet only visited a couple of times but it seems very pleasant, cycle culture etc. Unless you're going to work on a mink farm yes absolutely I'd go, this thing is not going to last forever & such an opportunity could set you up for life!
Would you guys go to the Netherlands right now for 2.5 times the money you’re currently on – or would you be too worried about the rest of the world blocking travel entirely from the Netherlands?
I had the opportunity to apply for a Netherlands job a few years back, post-Brexit. I had the skills but the language might've been an issue. But the real reason I didn't pursue it was the lack of proper countryside in the North where I'd have had to live. I loved the riding I did there because it was different but it would have got very dull very quickly. And it wasn't just about trails, it was about the general scenery. I currently have all that Wales has to offer, but NL was just endless flat fields with cows and ditches around the edge. Forever.
Would you guys go to the Netherlands right now for 2.5 times the money you’re currently on – or would you be too worried about the rest of the world blocking travel entirely from the Netherlands?
I lived 4 years in NL and hated it with a passion - not just the endlessly dreary countryside but also the inhabitants. In restrospect maybe part of it was my fault, but I'm not anxious to go back. Relevant to the thread - I was not impressed by the medical service. My wife was hospitalised at one point and the medical staff mostly ignored her, to the point that she was badly dehydrated. Just an anecdote, I know ...
Thanks zilog6128 I spotted that but am already in a different club. Surprised you didn't put a team into the ZRL, it's been really fun. Though you need a bunch of single-cat riders to turn up fairly consistently, which may not quite fit.
It's for a contract role so I'd be back, just worried about not seeing the wife at Christmas and being stuck in the equivalent to ground zero for the next round of crazyness. The pay reflects (I think) the fact that they need someone to bring their processes under control and the fact that they're asking me to go over in the middle of covid - a hired gun really.
On the other hand I'm keenly aware that it's all going to shit in Britain, lots of people are going to be out of a job and the extra money might help me and the missus stay afloat if it all goes very wrong over here in terms of unemployment.
My BiL is in the Netherlands, a small town in the arse-end of nowhere, flat as a pancake and boring as hell. It would drive me insane but seems to suit him and his family.
Oakleymuppet - FAKENEWS!!!! 😉
That link to the BBC story is about Denmark - nothing to do with the Netherlands
Hahah ****, I'm so tired. Off to the Netherlands it is then. God damnit brain! In my head I read the Netherlands last night and there I was thinking the Netherlands was too civilised to be mink farming as well!
I'd be 15 mins from Maastricht airport, so whilst it wouldn't be the den of iniquity that is Amsterdam it wouldn't exactly be in the middle of nowhere.
I was well up for it, unfortunately it clashes with the Tuesday STW race league which is such a laugh that it has to take priority!!Surprised you didn’t put a team into the ZRL, it’s been really fun.
@bunnyhop
Thanks for the kind wishes.
I've had my consultation this week and things are looking up for my health. Not out of the woods yet, but good positive progress . Thank you
@stevextc
Best wishes for the op. Hope it all works out as you want, but stay strong and also remember there's so much out of our hands that if it is delayed, you'll get there in the end. I had the green pathway with the test and isolate route, but my mum has an op delayed last minute due to them re deploying resources. It still worked out ok.
I borrowed my little girl's room and built Lego for a couple of days. Anyway, best wishes.
Here in France we seem to be proving that whatever else you close if you leave the schools open the virus still thrives.
And for those interested, it does look to me that they're reintroducing some shielding despite the headlines to the contrary.
Had a email letter through from the DHSC, signed Hancock and jenrick, with this included
This letter is a formal shielding notification and can act as evidence for your employer to show that you cannot work outside your home until 2 December, including for statutory sick pay (SSP) purposes
Technically I'm not as vulnerable as I was, but I'm changing my immediate plans to concentrate on staying safe, and I'll sort the other stuff later.
But it also gives a bit of hope that they, the gov, are willing to listen and try to protect those more vulnerable.
statutory sick pay (SSP) purposes
This was in the announcement and published guidelines. Who can live on SSP? Hopefully employers will now make use of furlough for those shielding.
remember there’s so much out of our hands
This is what is so frustrating.... the biopsy is already delayed due to Covid... if I don't test negative before I don't get the biopsy, if anyone I live with gets told to self isolate .. (presume more delay) but assuming I get the biopsy and it's not favourable then what? Do they just say they won't treat me if I test positive or a member of my household gets told to self isolate again?
Here in France we seem to be proving that whatever else you close if you leave the schools open the virus still thrives.
OMG imagine.... who'd have thought that. A coronavirus being spread in schools...
Steve, I know someone who prepped for surgery by splitting their household, and using an ambulance to get to hospital. You need two bathrooms, and to talk through the arrangements with the hospital a few weeks in advance. They were retired though, so could properly self isolate for two weeks before the op.
Masks with valves??? What madness is this.
we have all been told quite clearly valve masks don't protect the public so its pointless wearing them, yet they keep coming up on my FB feed for sale.
https://www.stealthmask.co.uk/products/stealth-city/
To those of us that are suffering from anxiety and stress, there are some good things too to come out of this:
Some viruses seems to be not as prevalent this year and hopefully this will be the same for flu. People on the whole do tend to be washing their hands properly and distancing.
With a low immune system I normally would have had some sort of illness by now that finds me in bed for a few days and a few weeks of trying to recover. This (touch wood) hasn't happened.
The other good point is more people are getting out and about. This will lead to appreciation of our gorgeous countryside and native wildlife, which may in turn help people realise the importance of the environment.
Thanks tired - you have helped more than you know in being a sensible voice in all this madness.
Thanks tired
My pleasure. Just back from my first GP appointment. I've been laid low all week by more woe, but going out in cold weak sun does help. Had a sore chest all week and some breathlessness. But recorded my first ever peak flow - I don't have asthma for sure (720 ml/min). So, time for more sums.
My projections for "do nothing" based on yesterday's data - i.e. anything lower than this would implicate lockdown effects. With lockdown, I think a peak in deaths at or below April peak (dashed line) is to be expected. Remember this is a do nothing counterfactual. We have lockdown1 plus schools open. Expect lower curves...
% of positive tests up here has been trending down for a wee while now, down to just over 5% today.
Amazing the small things you look for positives in during this time.
In my head I read the Netherlands last night and there I was thinking the Netherlands was too civilised to be mink farming as well!
they do farm mink in NL I believe but they are phasing it out.
5plusn8
Free MemberMasks with valves??? What madness is this.
we have all been told quite clearly valve masks don’t protect the public so its pointless wearing them, yet they keep coming up on my FB feed for sale.
You can still see senior politicians etc wearing vented masks, never mind fb ads.
Those valved masks are ffp2 or FFP3 so filter the air the wearer breathes clean of virus and microbes 95 or 99% respectively.
Ie the wearer is protected. The valve the wearer breathes out of isn’t filtered so the mask doesn’t protect anyone else.
We wear similar at work but must cover the outlet valve with a normal mask or visor so we protect both ourselves and others
I like a nice counterfactual analysis
🙃
@TiRed - does your graph represent 1 in 5 admissions result in death? I thought it was 1/7
Ceepers, yeah thats my point, what you breath out through that mask doesnt protect anyone.
Yeah they should make that clear if they are selling to the public for “everyday” wear.
They might argue that the valve on that one blows down and therefore away from others and in a similar fashion to the air that escapes around a normal cloth mask.
Can’t be really that difficult to add some kind of flap over the valve that would fix the issue?!
Doesn't matter which way the valve points it's still allowing virus droplets into the air, a fabricvmask catches them. And what is it with the visors old people wear, again protecting them selves to a limited extent whilst spewing old people germs out the side.
Lots of elderly folk have conditions affecting their breathing which masks exacerbate.
Agreed, the valve needs to be covered to properly protect others. Like I said I’m sure they could add a cloth flap to it pretty easily and they should make that clear in the adverts
The visors obviously don’t protect a Others like a mask but again direct the expelled breath air away from others. The virus is in droplets in the air and you can’t infect someone unless they inhale the droplets you breathe out. If you are “mask exempt” wearing a visor is better than nothing.
Personally I find people who leave their nose sticking out above the mask more irritating!
In my head I read the Netherlands last night and there I was thinking the Netherlands was too civilised to be mink farming as well!
they do have mink farming in NL and a surprisingly large bunch of other countries. I'm in DK and they're taking it very seriously and the testing and government response to covid is on a far higher level than the UK. The day to day problem is going to be other countries closing their borders to travel from DK. There might already be similar mutations in other countries with less thorough testing that we just don't know about yet.
@TiRed – does your graph represent 1 in 5 admissions result in death? I thought it was 1/7
When I was just analysing the England data as a whole 1/7 was better. Not I look at the regional level, 1/5 to 1/6 works. These are summed to get England and then summed with northern Ireland Scotland and Wales to get U.K. 1/5 looks better then.
In news articles about the mutated virus in mink, the mink are often light coloured. I thought (and Wikipedia agrees, for what that's worth) that mink were always dark, and don't change colour in winter.
Some old military clothing my dad has used light grey mink. The only living ones I’ve seen in the UK were nearly black. I would guess these farms use minks bred to be whatever colour sells.
From Wikipedia page on the fur trade:
The white mink, a northern European breed, was introduced into Canada in 1968. Most mink production in Canada occurs in Nova Scotia which, with 116 licensed farms in 2016, generated revenues of nearly $54 million by contributing approximately 1.4 million pelts to global markets. That accounted for an average of half of all Canada's mink pelts.[18] Production of black mink in particular has grown significantly since 2000, with emerging markets in Russia, China, and South Korea accounting for most of the new demand. Black mink was first bred in Nova Scotia in the late 1950s and has proven popular as a versatile colour. Most Nova Scotia product is sold in China where it is manufactured into luxury garments.
Preprint of a study on a new mutation in Scotland:
https://twitter.com/FionaWattMRC/status/1324707238515253249
Remember this is a do nothing counterfactual. We have lockdown1 plus schools open. Expect lower curves…
Lockdown 2 is very different, far beyond just schools. I just hope it works.
2/3 a million quid for a podcast, bargain!
https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1325180546675322880?s=19
Will the Good Law Project take on that gross abuse^^^ of taxpayers money?
According to leaked docs
So is this true or a load of bollocks?
Lockdown 2 is very different, far beyond just schools. I just hope it works.
It’ll work. There is evidence that Tier 3 was already starting to have an effect, so doubling down will work. But the halving time is likely longer than the doubling time.L so we are not at evens. The north needs more than a month to get down to the south levels. We won’t see that. But a flattening is likely. I doubt a lot of shrinkage.
Will the Good Law Project take on that gross abuse^^^ of taxpayers money?
Because we know The Taxpayers Alliance won’t bother!
Not sure if this has been posted
It’ll work. There is evidence that Tier 3 was already starting to have an effect, so doubling down will work. But the halving time is likely longer than the doubling time.L so we are not at evens. The north needs more than a month to get down to the south levels. We won’t see that. But a flattening is likely. I doubt a lot of shrinkage.
That reads to me like you starting by saying it will work and ending by saying it wont. If it flatterns, it will just rise from where we were already again when we "reopen", or is this just going to end with the north not reopening whilst the south does its best to catch up?
As an aside, how much of the current flattening can be attributed to Wales and NI having a firebreak? (Sorry I forget what Scotland is up to🙄) and how much is due to the previous tier system, we havent had a week of lockdown yet so that effect is too soon is it not?
Actually I read that as, it’ll work it’ll just take longer than a month, but in that once we’ll see X result.
That reads to me like you starting by saying it will work and ending by saying it wont.
Its very clear and doesn't say that at all.
Actually I read that as, it’ll work it’ll just take longer than a month,
Which means .gov are wrong to give it a month. The govs plan is for a month, this may or may not work.
Its very clear and doesn’t say that at all.
Thanks thats very clear although it doesnt help.
An awful lot of teachers will have caught this within a month. That's the experience locally already, sadly.
An awful lot of teachers will have caught this within a month. That’s the experience locally already, sadly.
Certainly not the experience of the three secondary schools my kids have connections with. I'm very surprised by that, but all the teacher infections we've heard of were in September and believed to have been caught outside of school, from what the schools have revealed. I'm assuming, possibly incorrectly, that their distancing/mask policies are working.
TiReds comment seemed fairly clear to me, it will just about work after a month, but probably need longer, if I understood him correctly.
That Times article is interesting. He knows an awful lot of theories and seems to think that if you throw enough of them about at easy targets like SAGE, the government and the civil service, some of them will stick. I came away with the impression that he was using the theories to justify his anti lockdown opinion. I'd argue we've needed lockdown because of the poor decisions made earlier due to groupthink etc, not because of groupthink etc per se.
Though I will add that a friend who is a risk advisor has said that at an individual, even business level, the risk of serious impact from Covid is so small on the scale that it "wouldn't normally " require severe restrictions. It's the bigger societal scale and all it's knock on effects that are the reason actions are needed.
Are you in an area of high incidence MoreCashThanDash? Staff are getting hit hard around here (Calderdale&Halifax) (primary&secondary). A lot of new positive tests in the last week.
TiReD
It’ll work. There is evidence that Tier 3 was already starting to have an effect, so doubling down will work.
The work or not would seem to be more about compliance than anything.
Plenty of people seem to simply want to go out of their way to not only not comply but make a big thing about not complying.
The village shop in Peaslake has several signs to wear a mask... AND it has masks and handgel for FREE outside (with an OPTIONAL donation box).
A large group were debating how to go in without having to wear a mask ... one of the kids said "I'll just say I'm under 11" and one of the adults said "I'll just tell them I'm exempt"
All of this was discussed in front of others .. certainly not quietly and you could almost say it was at a volume to make sure everyone heard.
The other related issue is these are the people most likely to be spreading it due to their specific actions.
I spoke to two secondary school head masters last week (one Greater Manchester, the other Sheffield) and both said that they are really struggling for staff and that that if nothing else they might be closed due to this. They are down to the dregs of stand in's and one has even utilised the caretaker occasionally.
They have been told in Manchester by the scientific advisors that secondary school kids are the biggest spreaders at the moment. Both reported lots of teachers on their knees, both favoured a circuit breaker.
kelvin
You need two bathrooms, and to talk through the arrangements with the hospital a few weeks in advance.
Cheers...
A bit late now, even if I could get the rest of the household to comply which is unlikely.
The other side is my own stubbornness in that I want to get in as much riding in as I can before I potentially can't.
Are you in an area of high incidence MoreCashThanDash? Staff are getting hit hard around here
Eldest is at a college in Nottingham that went into Tier 3, we are in Erewash that borders it and were being warned we'd be among the next Tier 3 before it went national. So not as high as your area, but getting there. Nottingham's rates were fed - and distorted - by the student situation and the uni doing its own testing program though, now fallen significantly.
As I said, I'm surprised that reported teacher infections are so low. I'm only giving our experience of it round here, in no way suggesting that other people's experiences elsewhere are not correct.
My Nephew is studying Stage/Theatre Tech support at RADA in London. His whole class was tested last week and they were ALL positive.
He isn't a party animal (learning difficulties - so proud of what he is achieving after effectively getting no education before the age of 8 when diagnosed). When returning from home in Lancaster in Sept he reported his train was standing room only, and non-mask wearing rife. He was really upset by it.
I’m very surprised by that, but all the teacher infections we’ve heard of were in September and believed to have been caught outside of school, from what the schools have revealed.
Should schools be sharing medical details?
Round here the incidence is low, pretty sure my wife got it at school though. Local news assumed she was a pupil.
Not sure why some on here have got so upitty about me askinf Tired a question, he never seems bothered by them. If "working" means having an effect that is worth while in a month, like .gov said or working is it taking longer than a month, as it likely will and people know that now I think its worth highlighting as .gov are trying to bullshit us again and this will just feed into lockdown sceptics and make the next one even later and less effective.
What are the feelings in Wales? Did the 17 day lockdown do its job and was compliance decent?
We are certainly seeing trends in cases -> Hospitalisations-> Deaths in England - hopefully we can go in the right direction.
Im currently working out whether my mum can stay with us over the xmas period. Sh lives alone 200 miles away, and whilst we speak on FT daily, she desperately wants to come and stay to se the kids & the dogs! She wants to move down here, but SE property prices are much higher than rural Norfolk.
Should schools be sharing medical details?
The schools have been trying to make it clear where they don't think there has been transmission within school. No staff have been named, and close teaching contacts have been off isolating at the same time so no specific individuals have been identified, though I'm pretty sure the kids know.
And if the teacher says "you can tell them it's unlikely it came from school" I assume that permission is ok.
Im currently working out whether my mum can stay with us over the xmas period. Sh lives alone 200 miles away,
Hopefully there's a version of a bubble you can use if rules aren't relaxed. Childcare bubble in the Christmas holidays?
(Not condoning anyone taking the piss out of guidelines, but sensible risk assessments apply, obviously)
It will be fine legally, but the welfare of my mum is the most important. If available I would probably pay to get the kids tested as the most likely vector into our house.
The test doesn't really provide any certainty because it will only come up positive if the kids are shedding virus at that moment. They could be clear the day before your mum comes and be contagious a few days later.
The only reasonable way to give yourself a bit of confidence is to isolate as a family 10 days or so before your mum gets there. But even that is not foolproof - if your child develops it asymptomatically a few days into isolation, then another family member could be developing it at the wrong moment a week later. But the chances of passing it on would be substantially smaller.
I'm not planning to have any contact with elderly relatives this Christmas.
What are the feelings in Wales? Did the 17 day lockdown do its job and was compliance decent?
Compliance was pretty rubbish in terms of not driving to beauty spots. I read also that compliance was low in terms of not going to each other’s houses. How much of that was uni students, I'm not sure though, as I know a few house parties had to be broken up.
Regarding compliance, I think it was a big mistake not doing things on a UK wide basis (since Boris won't talk to the devolved administrations I appreciate that is very difficult), because I heard / read on social media a lot of 'well they aren't doing this in England.' We are a fair way from the border so I guess that would be even more so closer to England.
I read a news bulletin from our local NHS trust saying that numbers had continued to rise throughout lockdown and they were more or less at capacity so please keep being careful and maintain measures where possible.
I know a lot of the local hospitality venues are now completely booked for the next few weeks, and when poorly run / distanced hospitality is a major transmission route, I'm quite concerned it won't have been enough.
MartinH - it’s really tricky, and I understand all you posted. I also don’t underestimate the fact that my mum won’t have seen a single relative since August. She’s a fit and healthy 70y/o.
How long from exposure to shedding the virus?
The kids break up on 18 Dec and won’t then be out of the house until Xmas. For me, a -ve test on 22/23 reduces the risk significantly. We are definitely in a risk balancing phase imho.
Ferrals - I bet those same people change their tune of “why aren’t we like England” now that we are in lockdown and Wales isn’t!!
I know a lot of the local hospitality venues are now completely booked for the next few weeks, and when poorly run / distanced hospitality is a major transmission route, I’m quite concerned it won’t have been enough.
This is where the enforcement, or lack of, comes in. We've friends who own a bar. They have spent a fortune on installing booths and screens, completely rearranging layout and removing furniture so they can enforce distancing, take peoples temperature as they walk in, have effective track and trace, and have installed all these systems in place. Most places in the area have done the same.
However, they say that everyone knows that these are hospitality businesses that haven't done any of these things are are flagrantly breaking all the rules and doing so with complete impunity. There is zero enforcement going on. Everyone knows who these businesses are, they have been repeatedly reported, yet the authorities refuse to do anything about it
While this continues, the people who play by the rules and behave in a safe manner are having their efforts negated by a minority who don't give a toss
Apologies if this has been posted, reports of good results from Pfizer
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/09/health/pfizer-covid-19-vaccine-effective/index.html
The so-called interim analysis looked at the first 94 confirmed cases of Covid-19 among the more than 43,000 volunteers who got either two doses of the vaccine or a placebo. It found that fewer than 10% of infections were in participants who had been given the vaccine. More than 90% of the cases were in people who had been given a placebo.
Poorly run / distanced hospitality is a major transmission route
Got stats on that?
What I read suggested that hospitality contributes a tiny, tiny amount to transmissions.
If I've got my mental sums right, that 0.02% people in 43000 infected excluding the placebo group? Wow thats some success.
Love to think the Pfizer vaccine is the holy grail but wonder how much is the media getting very excited.
Hope it is though the answer to this nightmare.
Isn’t Pfizer well behind the oxford vaccine? Maybe they just publish mid trial as opposed for waiting for it to fully read out like we do?
Sounds positive though.
What I read suggested that hospitality contributes a tiny, tiny amount to transmissions.
Miniscule. And its all down to a small number of badly run places. The majority of hospitality places are about as covid-safe as you're likely to get. Far safer than going into a supermarket
We won't need to worry about it for too much longer though. The problem will be somewhat academic when they've all gone bust. Ironically, the badly run places that have flouted the rules are the ones that will be more likely to survive
Maybe the reason Hospitality doesn't show transmission is the complete failure of the T&T app/system to actually log people and follow up.
Maybe the reason Hospitality doesn’t show transmission is the complete failure of the T&T app/system to actually log people and follow up.
Nope, its world class
The envy of the world
@binners - likewise, there is a huge difference in responsibility of hospitality owners by us. I agree that it seems very unfair that those who havent made the financial outlay, and who are flouting social distancign to get people in aren't being adequately punished; though I know our local council has become more proactive it seems. What I will say is that those who have made the effort do seem to be recognised for that and have grateful clientele so hopefully it will stand them in good stead.
@lunge - There were various bar charts in the press. Then there was also the paper that suggested eat out to help out contributed to 18% of cases over summer.. the link is somewhere up the thread. As above there is such a range of environments, a well ventilated cafe being very different to a dingy, sticky floored social club.
I'm not knocking hospitality, my wife has various venues as clients and some have really gone above and beyond to keep their venues safe. I am a bit uneasy our lcokdown has been lifted though. What's more WG have painted themselves into a corner by commiting to no more lockdowns till after christmas (I've not seen it but apparently the first minister tweeted that)