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They need to explain this reasoning far more clearly. It’s not about “essential”, it’s about lower risk activities.
They burned this in March.
The only way to prevent any anomalies is to just ban leaving the house altogether. But the NHS needs to function, and those staff need certain things to be able to go to work, and so it snowballs
No, people need to eat and drink... and now it's getting to winter they need heating.
The issue is this binary type thinking....it's pretty clear people need food so telling people they can't buy food is simply not going to work.
What is NEEDED is leadership something that has been entirely lacking with policy set by reaction to "press and social media leaks"
Instead we need to have supermarkets but they can't enforce people wearing masks...
Don't want to wear a mask... just say you are exempt and noone can even ask you why.
Indeed, I know people who wear a mask for hay fever and claim exemption indeed many think being exempt is the same as "banned from".
Our local shop has kids not wearing masks wearing uniforms from secondary schools... (they don't even need to be in the shop)
another U Turn
While restaurants, cafes, pubs and bars have been ordered to shut, food deliveries and takeaways are still allowed.
“Pubs, bars, restaurants must close except for takeaway and delivery services,” Mr Johnson said during his speech.
The government later clarified that takeaway of alcohol will not be allowed. However, this has since been overturned and it has been confirmed that pubs will be able to serve takeaway pints to customers who order their drinks in advance.
Seems top defy logic ...
The government website states that auction houses, tailors, car washes, tobacco and vape shops must also shut.
However, it adds that non-essential retail can remain open for delivery to customers and click-and-collect.
Anyone who smokes accepts it is going to kill them and they will be "fined" thousands per year...
It doesn't take a genius to work out addicts will get a fix one way or another.
Plus to do that, as least some fuel is required. Very high tax on fuel don’t you know…
Supermarkets have already knocked about 3-4p off the price of a litre citing low demand. Won't be long before all the forecourts follow suit so I'm looking forward to a full tank of fuel for a few £ less than normal soon.
Rishi Sunak is about to announce that Furlough is to be extended until March
That tells us everything we need to know. Did anyone ever believe we were coming out of lockdown before then?
Actually.... I'm sure certain areas will. And we all know which. But those of us who never really came out of lockdown anyway, were already resigned to this being until next spring
Good news. Should have been announced late August early September, as Labour were pushing for. Too late for many, now.
Its at least an acknowledgement of reality.
It's going to be interesting to see what help small businesses forced to shut will get. If any. There might not be many of them left by March
A trivial example is where can we ride? Last lockdown Crown Estate shut Swinley… this time it’s open… so understandably people are asking why last time they could cycle through the park but not in the Forest but this time they can cycle in the Forest. I’m assuming that no clear guidance has been given in either case so the NT/FC/Crown Estates etc. are just making it up as they go along (as best they can not being epidemologists other than maybe treee diseases)
Last time CE were pretty clear that they did this to avoid adding extra load to the NHS through broken bikers heading for A&E. This time there's (currently) capacity in A&E for the regular concussions and broken collar bones that arrive from the gnarrfest of Swinley, so we can all schralp to the maxxx.
Rishi Sunak is about to announce that Furlough is to be extended until March
That tells us everything we need to know. Did anyone ever believe we were coming out of lockdown before then?
That's good news, I would say that's the Goverment finally giving up the idea that we have the NHS capacity to follow the US in letting us all fend for ourselves, or that a bit of rose tinted nostalgia and PMA will allow us to keep on as normal and handle Covid.
The Situation in England is different to Wales, apart from Cardiff we're pretty sparsely populated, but here out LD ends on Monday and the new rules are more relaxed than they were pre fire break. We expect to carry on like this until mid-December, then there will be some kind of mindless Xmas amnesty, followed by another firebreak, maybe even between Cmas and NYE to avoid that whole mess.
With a Vaccine likely for a few key people Q4 2020 or Q1 2021 the next fire break will probably/hopefully/maybe/possibly/sort of, be the last.
Last time CE were pretty clear that they did this to avoid adding extra load to the NHS through broken bikers heading for A&E. This time there’s (currently) capacity in A&E for the regular concussions and broken collar bones that arrive from the gnarrfest of Swinley, so we can all schralp to the maxxx.
How many people a year actually NEED A&E from Swinley?
It's far far safer than cycling (or probably driving) TO Swinley or riding thropugh the car park and 90%+ of the ambulances are probably not needed it's simply people abusing the system that they will do from anywhere.
Compare that with somewhere like Hindhead or even Peaslake/Holmbury with hidden and unexpected big gaps jumps etc. or people riding along footpaths etc.
So whereas it might reduce strain from Swinley (Crown Estates) it's not very joined up thinking if it pushes more people into more accidents elsewhere.
someone just sent me an interview with a bloke (scientist) Mike Yeadon...basically saying the test that everything's based on is bobbins. he also says he thinks this was all over months ago.
I dont know how to link it but he sounds convincing - but what do I know
anyone seen this?
he seems a legit scientist? https://www.crunchbase.com/person/michael-yeadon
That tells us everything we need to know. Did anyone ever believe we were coming out of lockdown before then?
Nope.
Lockdown 2 will end at the start of December to allow everyone to enjoy the magical festival of superspreading, and then it'll be lockdown 3 in January.
Lockdown 2 will end for the south at the start of December to allow everyone apart from those frightful northerners to enjoy the magical festival of superspreading, and then it’ll be lockdown 3 in January.
FTFY
Living in a police state
https://www.hull****/news/hull-east-yorkshire-news/police-arrested-care-home-mother-4670150
No, not a police state. Care homes are not just accommodation, there is a duty of care that can be in conflict with the impulses of relatives.
Rishi Sunak is about to announce that Furlough is to be extended until March
That's a welcome development. If the national lock down ends with regional tiers the hard right no doubt will be arguing either they need furlough in tier one or against it altogether claiming their businesses are carrying those other tiers.
One from the laws of unintended consequences - Boris and the Great Christmas Tree Shortage?
Living in a police state
We really aren't, and to use such terms is pretty insulting to those who do.
Living in a police state
Police states generally tend to have large numbers of police
and censorship
and people disappearing
and more dictators
and censorship
and people disappearing
and more dictators
and electoral fraud.
oh. wait.
To use china as an example, a police state is a pretty effective way of reducing transmission
Now if we look at how our country has done in comparison it's pretty obviously that we are nothing of the sort..
So, Mike Yeadon claims the 'pandemic is fundamentally over' in the UK.
2 things. Why is he 'ex Pfizer' and, well, it's Talkradio....
Furlough scheme extended to March 31st '21
'We're living in a police state' is very Tommy Robinson btw.
he also says he thinks this was all over months ago
Then it'll take you but moments to find out that he's wrong, and should probably be ignored. I'd put you in contact with family members who work in Greater Manchester hospitals... but you're better off just reading the news, it'll be quicker.
@kelvin, you're bizarrely assuming I'm believing him, if I wanna talk to a healthcare professional immersed in this, she's next to me on the sofa...
I dont know anything about him apart from watching it and Googling him...sounded like he knew what he was on about but I don't have the means to know otherwise. I dont know much about talk radio. Looks right wing. But that doesn't mean its simply bollocks same goes with leftwing outlets surely.
sounded like he knew what he was on about
This is why we are ****ed. And there is nothing left/right about acknowledging what is going on in the world. There is no way "this is over"... if someone tells you it's raining, look out the window, don't just nod along because of the way they sound. Crazy how this stuff spreads... at least half the people sharing it will say they don't go along with it, or think it's wrong, or just an interesting talking point... and then it gets shared enough to become treated as equal/opposite/balance to what is actually really truthfully happening.
...i did, the mail concors!
Hahah...joke
Made me laugh! Sorry for the rant.
you’re bizarrely assuming I’m believing him
Not at all! It would be out of character if you did. I was replying to the same post of Sefton's that you were... I hadn't even read your post at that point.
I dont know what to make of what he's saying...hence why I posted it on here. I'm about as far away as you can get from a scientist.
Well... I'd suggest checking out the Independent Sage weekly videos that Bill posts here. They are very good at explaining the ongoing situation so that we can all (lay people that is) keep up to date.
EDIT: their site... https://www.independentsage.org
Cheers but I think ill stick to talk radio now.
Joke!
Thanks ill def have a look.
I don’t have the means to know otherwise
You could always consider the massive hospital admissions and increasing numbers of folk dying and all that other strong evidence which is being repeated worldwide in practically every country on the globe, to show we're experiencing a pandemic of a highly transmissive and lethal disease?
Not at all! It would be out of character if you did. I was replying to the same post of Sefton’s that you were… I hadn’t even read your post at that point
Sorry. my bad, I've spent too long on here today!
what happpend to this thread? It was a goldmine of informed comment and now its gone all Daily Express
Hold on.... Boris press conf at 5pm to provide the clarity we all desperately seek
Having watched my local secondary school at hometime today and seen the total lack of any distancing or any mask use I cannot see how this lockdown will be effective. Essentially, if you are a parent you are being exposed to all the kids in your kids class and about twice as many again in between lessons.
Older people were physically recoiling from the 30-40 large group as they came out of school, and the local Co-op was effectively out of bounds for 40 minutes.
I'm increasingly aware of the global challenges, not just my relatively "I'm ok here in Scotland, Jack" attitude.
USA just had biggest day yet.
Africa - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-4a11d568-2716-41cf-a15e-7d15079548bc
(Etc)
Even if we in the UK get our house in order, we're surely a lot longer from the world being back settled again.
yeadon is a general health scientist, but he seems to know little about the rt-pcr test used but he is talking absolute bobbins about it
hes either never done any rt-pcr & has no idead or is simply lying
I posted a takedown of hanegans similar nonsense a few pages back
I really wish that they werent allowed to peddle this BS unchallenged (and fwiw his general points arent without merit but his comments on test are so wrong)
to sum up: the probe that detects it is a 20bp long segment of 2 viral genes specific to this covid but the amplified fragments are 100bp long, dead virus will degraded to less than 100bp by the body and wont be amplified, some will still be around, but its
and the rt-pcr test is run to 45 cycles but that isnt the end-point at which you call whether a sample is positive
thats when the florescent signal from the probe used is increasing at an exponential rate
if you have a high input amount of viral rna it will start to do that at a low number of amplifications (cycles)
if its v low it will happen higher, in the UK anything from below 35 cycles is a positive, 35-37 is undetermined & the sample is retested
https://twitter.com/alanmcn1/status/1323987854767366147
yeadon & hartlkey brewer are spreading fakenews, please dont do the same
also wtf
can we take back hardings peerage?
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1324314468487254016
My friend is nursing on a covid safe ward away from the main hospital. She cares for the elderly, many of whom have had surgery or have multiple medical problems and have had treatment.
The ward now has covid and the hospital keep sending patients to her. What on earth is she supposed to do?
She's not a person that gets stressed easily, but her life is awful atm.
I would dearly love all these idiots who are not complying or don't care about the rules go and spend a day with her.
Good news her team are all getting regular tests and she's got antibodies.
Having watched my local secondary school at hometime today and seen the total lack of any distancing or any mask use I cannot see how this lockdown will be effective
You do realise they spend all day with no social distancing, only to be tutted at for the way they walk home?
I had to give my tutor group the message that they all had to adhere to social distancing on the way home, go straight home, lock themselves down and no leave the house again till they came back to see me in the morning.
Why dont we have to distance at school sir, because the teachers protective magic will keep you safe at school.
Yes, my reaction was largely because I've not seen anyone in a large group or not distancing for about 11 months and it shocked me a bit.
I just can't see how any form of lockdown will work while kids are at school, which I know makes me very, very late to this party!
You do realise they spend all day with no social distancing, only to be tutted at for the way they walk home?
Kicking off on the village FB group about 4 kids seen together this afternoon on their way home from school. A bit of perspective and common sense has been suggested.
I just can’t see how any form of lockdown will work while kids are at school
Calderdale schools being hit hard right now. It’s getting messy.
Moonshit…
Apparently the pilot in Hartlepool has been pulled and resources focused on Liverpool. I guess it will be the same for the other two town ones.
P-Jay
Full MemberIf only there was a way to know how British people will act during “Lockdown 2”.
Oh wait, Hi everyone from Wales! We’re coming towards the end of ours now, so I might be able to give you a little bit of an insight.
Ah, you don't understand english exceptionalism! Remember, that it's 50% about how English people are better than everyone else and that simple Common Sense and Blitz Spirit can defeat a disease that everywhere else in the world thinks is probably best fought with Science and Medicine.
But it's also 50% about how English people are worse than everyone else, and that things that work perfectly well in France, or Australia, or Senegal, couldn't possibly work in England. See also: paying for a plastic bag.
cloudnine
Full MemberThe BoE has just printed £150 billion to help out the needy.
Anyone care to explain how this helps?
Stuff costs money. Countries can print money to pay for things. Inflation is rock bottom so it's possible to print billions of quid with no major ill effects. See also, borrowing- government borrowing is incredibly cheap just now, in fact, for much of this year it's been cheaper to borrow than it's been to tax.
Literally the only reason we're not doing more of it is that we have Tories in charge and they don't want to admit that this stuff is the right thing to do. After 10 years of austerity and blatant lies about "balancing the books" and "magic money trees", they don't want to admit that it works today, and it would have worked in the financial crisis, and that they've ruined lives and harmed the economy for no reason other than that their ideology says it's better to do stuff that doesn't work and lie about it.
I don't tend to "play the man", but in Yeadon's case, I am sorry, but you must judge a scientist by their past judgements. Under Dr Yeadon, Pfizer's respiratory and inflammation portfolio (based at Sandwich in kent), for which he was accountable, was not successful, the company withdrew from the therapeutic area and closed research at Sandwich. I know quite a few people who worked for him and lost their jobs. Oh and he took an asset into his own biotech company and sold it to Novartis. Nothing unusual about that. But how did that sale work out?
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novartis-dumps-ziarco-eczema-drug-taking-485m-hit
I made a comment on lockdownsceptics, that basically he assumes as scientific truth what is really conjecture. That's an all to common mistake in drug discovery (and other areas too), but can lead to confirmation bias, discounting of observations, and eventual failure. I personally view his comments as reckless, in the same way as I view Gupta's.
But some epidemiology now... I was reading yesterday of the effects of COVID-19 in pregnancy (for work). A report by the CDC showed that the risk of severe COVID is about three times normal for women who are pregnant. Fortunately they respond well to treatment. This is not unexpected since pregnancy adds a degree of immuno-suppression.
462k patients 15-44 with symptoms, 5.7% pregnant, 1% admitted to ITU (vs. 3.9% controls), and 0.15% die. Survival is well over 9/10 from ITU, but what happens if the ITU is full and treatment unavailable? Scaling those numbers to the UK, say 1300 births/day is about 0.5M pregnancies per year, 1% admitted to ITU and 7% die would be 327 deaths. Spread the epidemic over the course of three years and that would be about 2-3 per week.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6944e3.htm
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2020/nov/05/uk-government-urged-to-protect-pregnant-women-in-second-covid-wave
This is not just a disease of the elderly.
Somehow I manage to arrive at this thread when my anxiety about all this is at its worst. I genuinely struggle to see any point in hanging around to see what happens next. Make it to Christmas? Doubt it. I'd end up hating it more than I already do and then having to deal with the start of 2021 still locked down.
I don’t tend to “play the man”, but in Yeadon’s case, I am sorry, but you must judge a scientist by their past judgements. Under Dr Yeadon, Pfizer’s respiratory and inflammation portfolio (based at Sandwich in kent), for which he was accountable, was not successful, the company withdrew from the therapeutic area and closed research at Sandwich. I know quite a few people who worked for him and lost their jobs. Oh and he took an asset into his own biotech company and sold it to Novartis. Nothing unusual about that. But how did that sale work out?
Oooft. I must admit scanning his CV and coming to a similar conclusion.
Thanks Kelvin, I appreciate the offer. I'm not sure what I can say at the moment, or why I've vented here.
@stcolin if I can help with some reasoned perspective on where we are, just drop me a line. There really are are solid grounds for optimism, the timeframe a little longer than one would like. But do not take all the media doom and gloom. There are serious challenges, but medicine and science rises to those challenges as it has in the past.
In six months, the 28d mortality rate from the disease has almost halved. In my day job, that would be such a staggering effect it would be a blockbuster drug.
Thanks also, Tired. I have welcomed your knowledge, although I confess to not really understanding the science and feel frightened by the numbers. I do get drawn into the news at times, but my own personal battle is very tough at the moment and I find that this virus is certainly the driving factor of it all since March. I'm so naturally pessimistic that I guess you can appreciate my current outlook. Add in the darkness of winter, and it easily overwhelms. I'm putting all my energy into coming across to others as being fine, but I must be honest with myself and admit I really am hanging by a thread.
I'm really sorry to derail the thread in the last 20 minutes, it wasn't my intention.
You're far from alone in being anxious, it's perfectly understandable. I feel it too, probably to a lesser extent, particularly the part about using up your energy to appear OK. But, as is pointed out, there is a great deal to be optimistic about despite the current position. A lot of people are doing a lot of good work to protect us.
Your not alone mate feel free to dm
St.colin.. Just remember that you aren't alone. Even though stw appears to be a random anonymous jumble of miss fits.. when any member is in need of help there's a genuine line of members who would go above and beyond to help people out.
It’s harder to deal with things this time of year anyway (well I find so)… lots of people will find this November and December tough. Be good to each other.
@stcolin I empathise with you to a point, and must say I find this situation quite oppressive, almost suffocating at times. Add in the other challenging parts of life and it’s not a bed of roses. However, there is a lot of positivity out there too, it’s just a little less easy to come by; social media and the media, do not help. Bad news travels faster and louder but it doesn’t mean there isn’t good stuff about too. This forum proves this at times.
It's things like this that feed the conspiracy theorists,can the governments response to this get any worse
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54831334
@Stcolin, I can't offer any sort of help, got my hands full frankly but like the others say, know you're not alone. Me, I expect things to get better, on account of they genuinely are deeply shit right now and it's just not very sustainable, I mean, just by pure random chance things are bound to get better right?
It’s grim. Is the simple answer. We can hope that a vaccine comes charging in to rescue us but until it does we’ve got a tough choice between perpetual lockdowns and piling up the bodies. We are nowhere near through this. If the lockdown works we’ll have a third wave when it’s lifted (back to September behaviours) and if we actually attempted to go back to pre-pandemic behaviour next summer then a 4th wave. Possibly bigger than each of the previous three.
we’ve got a tough choice between perpetual lockdowns and piling up the bodies.
But as TiRed says, the vaccine is hopefully closer than we could have imagined 6 months ago, experts are suggesting, but have been ignored, that a series of short sharp lockdowns, rather than prolonged drawn out ones, would help us stay in top of it enough, and treatments are reducing the number of deaths, relatively speaking. It's hard to see any positives as we head into a gloomy looking winter but they are there.
I'm another anxiety sufferer here, so please get in touch if you need to vent. I have my wobbles, but my glass has been half full more often than half empty recently. Or my anxiety has been overtaken and replaced by frustration at our handling. That's given me a focus for my rage that is at least less self-destructive.
I’m really sorry to derail the thread in the last 20 minutes, it wasn’t my intention
You haven’t. Mental health matters more than ever at the moment. All I will say is perspective matters as well, and the media can’t offer that perspective. There is an exit plan and it is being enacted. But it won’t be by Christmas. Nor Easter. It WILL be by second half 2021.
Winter can be pretty miserable, and I have not been on a bike since March (still). But a crisp sunny day means you must go outside if you possibly can. Maintain some routine - even when working home. Try and switch off and watch some TV or read. I do sums.
Ignore most of the experts. Of all flavours. The media wants to push agendas and experts are selected and interviewed to push those agendas. BBC try and appear balanced, but in reality one wants surety, which is not balance. I don’t do media. But I do give a reasoned opinion here.
Pandemics have always presented the greatest threat to society. The world isn’t doing such a bad job given the lack of immediate choices.
On the subject of mental health and exercise, I’m loving zwift. After a couple of years of basically sneering at my wife for using it (we live in the Dales so outside is great apart from weather) I decided to give it a go over the winter and it’s an absolute blast. I’m in a team, we do regular rides and races, I’m probably fitter than I’ve been in years cycling-wise. My bike hasn’t been outside in the past two months but I’m cycling in Bologna tonight.
It’s a real escape from the world.
On the subject of mental health and exercise
A good read on mental health and the benefits of being outdoors is The Natural Health Service. It's a pragmatic approach.
Whilst there is a lot made of the impact of the current restrictions on mental health less is being made of the impact of infection. Long covid isn't exactly a thrill ride, shall we say bouts of low mood go with the territory. Never mind if someone is so debilitated they can't work. Whilst it is really welcoming to see a discussion about mental health issues I am left with the feeling it is merely a flag of convenience for some lock down sceptics. Any discussion would have to include the impacts of all approaches not just massive horribleness vs a bit of death.
Well wish me luck... COVID test today, the outcome of which determines if I can have a medical procedure on Monday. If I'm negative then I'm meant to self isolate over the weekend.
They won't even book the OT until I test negative so I don't even have a time.
OH and Jnr are both in Covid +ve schools and locking myself inside with them seems a bit stupid.
Somehow I manage to arrive at this thread when my anxiety about all this is at its worst. I genuinely struggle to see any point in hanging around to see what happens next. Make it to Christmas? Doubt it. I’d end up hating it more than I already do and then having to deal with the start of 2021 still locked down.
I feel exactly the same right now but at least have the comfort that I'm coming out of lockdown on Monday (don't think you're in Wales?) so can escape to see my family in a few days. I've had the effects of the virus cut me off from friends and family, take away my job and seriously curtail what I can do in terms of coping strategies for my anxiety like escaping to the countryside and riding bikes. I'm not alone in this, the same way that you aren't either.
I’m not sure what I can say at the moment, or why I’ve vented here.
Venting is good, even if it is to a bunch of strangers on a random bit of the internet.
The other 'arf and colleagues have had a short paper published:
Clinical features and outcomes of adults with coronavirus disease 2019: A systematic review and pooled analysis of the literature
Linky
Submitted 1st July and only just published - for me that highlights the warp speed progress being made on treatments and vaccines - took 5 months for a short paper to be published but vaccine trials are belting along.
can’t recommend the STW races enough... race on Tuesdays currently & TTT on Thursday... great to race against/with people you “know” from here! Good bants too on the threads before/after. Really brings an extra dimension to Zwift (which I enjoyed a lot anyway!) Feels good as well to be regularly meeting up for team sports/a “club” which I hadn’t done for a long time!On the subject of mental health and exercise, I’m loving zwift.
@stevextc good luck with the test and the procedure. My wife had her hip replaced at the start of September. She had to self isolate for 2 weeks before the operation and 1 week after - spent the whole time alone in the bedroom, I delivered meals to the bedroom door.
don’t think you’re in Wales?
No, I'm in Manchester. I was actually fairly okay with the tiered system. I got a little bit of freedom with that. I would feel okay if that was what we returned to on 3rd December. I can only hold onto a glimmer of hope for that.
I also had to make a call not to travel back home for Christmas, which is extra tough this year. I will have only got to see my friends and family once this year.
Oh, and regarding the Zwift thing, I don't have any equipment that I can use to get involved. I tried to get a smart trainer over the summer but nowhere had stock.
I don’t have any equipment that I can use to get involved.
ANT speed sensor and an ANT stick, or a bluetooth one and an ipad/iphone/apple TV is all you need. You don't get the "real power", but it's still fun.
https://www.wiggle.co.uk/wahoo-rpm-speed-sensor-with-bluetooth-40-and-ant
https://www.amazon.co.uk/s?k=bluetooth+speed+sensor&i=sports&ref=nb_sb_noss_2
you don't need cadence or Heart rate, but bluetooth monitors will talk to apple just fine.
I've just had my new smart trainer delivered today so my dumb trainer and a cheap speed/cadence sensor is going to be up for sale soon if that helps? It's only the Halfords one and a cheap sensor off Amazon but it got me through the last lockdown.