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Tourists coming back from Spain are being blamed for 80% of UK cases
Spain you say? 🤐
Tourists coming back from Spain are being blamed for 80% of UK cases
I bet the Spanish are blaming the Brits for bringing it in first!!
@TiRed, my model doesn't have any loss of immunity right now (I'm about to put it in) but I'm pretty confident this won't have had any noticeable effect at the population scale so far unless it's extremely rapid and widespread which seems unlikely. If all the March cohort had lost all immunity there would have been tens of thousands of reinfections and even though most will not be formally identified as such, there would be a *lot* of anecdotes.
So yesterday REACT say R is up to 1.6 (a bogus analysis based on a silly fit to a very short time series), and today SAGE say it's down to 1.1-1.3, which is erring in the opposite direction. Their growth rate estimates of 2-4% per day seem very optimistic to me. But more generally, what a hopeless shower our "expert epidemiologists" are, to come up with such wildly different estimates for the same system.
It's amusing also to contrast the MRC-BSU forecast issued on the 12th Oct with that of the 26th. Their predictions for English deaths on the 26th Oct are 241-696 and and 160-244 respectively (this is date-of-death numbers which are not finalised yet). There's a theoretical chance they will both validate but I wouldn't bet much on it!
Reading the comments on my local news facebook is like a window into insanity. These conspiracy nuts telling me the numbers ate made up to scare people etc,
There was one post I saw that had managed to contradict itself in the first two paragraphs where it claimed firstly that it was all a hoax manufactured by Government to control the sheeple and then that it was caused by 5G.
There was one post I saw that had managed to contradict itself in the first two paragraphs where it claimed firstly that it was all a hoax manufactured by Government to control the sheeple and then that it was caused by 5G.
my MIL believes it is both made in a lab in a plot by the chinese government, and simultaneously a horrific consequence of people eating meat (she's a life long vegetarian).
She did manage to space these two opinions out a bit more than adjacent paragraphs though.
Reading the comments on my local news facebook is like a window into insanit
Derbyshire Police put a message up on FB asking parents to try and talk to their teenagers to try and stick to the rule of 6 and reduce spread of the infection. It was clear they know it's impossible to stop and impossible for them to enforce effectively, but fair play, they'd asked nicely.
Of all the places to kick off an "the Police have no right to restrict my liberties rant", their own FB page seems a pretty dumb place to start. But having seen the shit they were getting when they published the results of their crackdown this week on uninsured cars, I'm not surprised. Being a dick on social media should be a capital offence. The gene pool would thank us for it.
Really shocking scenes from Nottingham last night though, idiots partying before Tier 3 kicked in. Lightened only by my son suggesting that if the BBC had done their risk assessment properly before sending a reporter into St Anns, they'd have realised it was a job for Orla Guerin, with her "PRESS" body armour and helmet 🙂
But having seen the shit they were getting when they published the results of their crackdown this week on uninsured cars, I’m not surprised
Some people on this forum struggle with the concept of car insurance, opening it up to the opinions of anyone with a facebook account is a recipe for disaster.
Really shocking scenes from Nottingham last night though, idiots partying before Tier 3 kicked in.
A friend's son has just gone back to uni (final year), was in a shared house with a few other final year students. He was there about 3 days before moving back home when he found out they're having a Halloween Party this weekend; friends round, sleepover, the whole lot.
This is in an already Tier 3 city. He wasn't prepared to put up either with the risk of infection or the risk of the party being broken up by police and ending up with a £10k fine.
thecaptain
Free MemberSo yesterday REACT say R is up to 1.6 (a bogus analysis based on a silly fit to a very short time series), and today SAGE say it’s down to 1.1-1.3
The covid zoe people are saying R=1.1 and doubling rate is 28 days.
https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-rates-are-not-surging
...and before @TiRed jumps up and down about it, the issue is not the R number per se but the doubling time/growth rate that underpins its estimation. These doubling times are also explicitly presented by the different groups and differ wildly.
Indeed, the disparity in doubling times is driven by the data streams used and the lag distributions assigned to them. I focus on hospital admissions because these are the cleanest signal, and derive doubling times from the data (not a model). I ignore cases completely now. I don't estimate R as the generation time is largely uncertain too!
there would be a *lot* of anecdotes.
Completely agree, I am sure there is some protection afforded by past infection.
A_A, my response on lockdownsceptics to the same comments about the unreliability of the "made up data"
The strongest prediction for significant immunity is that release of lockdown would lead to continued sustained low levels of new cases, hospitalisations and deaths. Indeed it would also predict that areas with the highest previous infectious burden would have the slowest rate of growth once constraints are relaxed as there are fewer people to spread the infection to.
What we see is the opposite – relaxing constraints leads to an increases in hospital admissions. That increase began earlier in the year than typical influenza, with fastest rates in areas in the lowest Tier (1) and slowing rates in areas in highest Tier (3). I know these are uncomfortable facts (down button below), and the signal is obscured by some frenzy over the testing reliability and positivity of “cases”. But step back, look at the burden of healthcare and the likely consequences.
The hard facts are than a lot more people are being admitted to hospitals in October that met the same diagnostic criteria as they did two months ago. The time for these admissions to double has been about two weeks (less in Tier 1, more in Tier 3). The increase is several months earlier than typically noted for respiratory diseases. The North began from a higher absolute number, but the growth has been quite similar. Nowhere has seen a fall in admissions per day.
Sadly, about 1/6 of these admissions will die. That number is better than it used to be. But before they die they will occupy HDU/ITU beds that would normally be used for routine care. That care will now be suspended until admissions start to stabilise or fall.
There is no evidence from this course of events of the role played by immunity. I wish there were. There is evidence of better management leading to reduced mortality (a huge success). But as the ITUs fill up, younger and younger people will be denied the likely treatment they require and the average age of death will fall. We should be thankful at least, that unlike influenza, there is not the additional significant paediatric burden on healthcare
Hopefully it still goes without saying on here that R=1 is a disaster for us. We need the R rate constantly and significantly well below 1, for a good long spell, to get the actual numbers down... But half the chat I see on social media etc for Scotland is like "the number is almost down to 1, why do we still have such a DRACONIAN lockdown" (ie, the pub is shut)
SAGE have finally noticed that the second wave is coming faster than they had anticipated.
It's only 3 months ago that I pointed out the same thing.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54750775
(To be fair, their minutes are from 2 weeks ago, so they are only about 10 weeks behind me, rather than 12.)
SAGE have finally noticed that the second wave is coming faster than they had anticipated.
Tbh I think the only folk surprised by that were sage and the government
Ideally one would like R<1. But R=1 and a low absolute number means manageable healthcare and some flex for the inevitable fluctuations. The big challenge is that estimation of R in Tier 3 regions still suggests R>1 and growing transmission. That may be manageable, and indeed sustainable, with compensatory periods of closure (school holidays) but it is undesirable. Schools are the real issue here. Education open implies R>1. But education needs to stay open.
BBC also reporting that SAGE have decalred that the current situation is "significantly worse than the reasonable worst case scenario", and that this "reasonable worst case" assumed a case rate about 20% as much as it is today.
Quite a lot of things to unpick in that, I reckon.
Tbh I think the only folk surprised by that were sage and the government
If I am honest, I am relatively pleased that the doubling time is what it is. I wasn't in the least bit surprised, the null is 3 days!!! There is some evidence that the Tier measures may be having an effect. Tier 1 is certainly more rapid than Tier 3. The basic fact is that the North was already too high when we unlocked because it was always lagging the South.
I view education as the largest challenge. That and trying to achieve the potential reductions in transmission that testing has to offer.
So what's the course of action then? An English Circuit Break? How's that going to work when us lot in Wales will be coming out of ours? Will schools have to close for longer?
They've missed the boat (again!) and the consequences are going to be much, much worse than they should be or have been imagined.
A serious question now: Where the **** is Boris?
Yes I am very angry.
They’ve missed the boat (again!) and the consequences are going to be much, much worse than they should be or have been imagined.
A serious question now: Where the **** is Boris?
It's déjà vu all over again!
Well he can't come to Wales and hide in the same fridge again, the factory is shut due to a Covid outbreak!!
The basic fact is that the North was already too high when we unlocked because it was always lagging the South
Locked the South too late and unlocked the North too early. Lose:Lose
Good job that's not going to be repeated this time round, hey ?
New national lockdown on it's way next week - according to The Times.
Techie people.
I downloaded the German covid app when I was in Germany. It’s still running in my phone and telling me I’m low risk (it’s not wrong - I’m doing everything I can to avoid being inside with people outside of my household).
I’m guessing that Apple phones are all running the same core detection system so doesn’t really matter what human language / country I’m in. Or is this overly optimistic?
Leaked to Times. Announcement on Monday. They have all weekend to gauge response and decide what they actually are going to do.
So judging by the way they're testing the reactions to what they may do:
It’s déjà vu all over again!
Leak to favoured press, if it goes down badly just drop it. If it sticks, run with it and act like the announcement is amazing and exactly the right thing to do and the timing is impeccable.
If we use the same timeline when is Cummings due an 'eye test' and can we make sure everyone he passes has their phone recording at the time?
Again: where the **** is Boris?
Or is this overly optimistic?
It is. While it’s completely possible for the apps to work across borders (the Scottish app has been updated to work in Ireland and France recently IIRC) there is nothing in place for the German app to work here, or for our App to work there (or anywhere) yet. It’s flaky enough here… that needs sorting first.
Edit: just checked… it’s just NI and Jersey sharing with Scotland so far… but the intention (at the Scotland end) is for England&Wales, Ireland, France etc to join as well. I wouldn’t hold your breath about England&Wales being soon. Can’t find anything about Germany.
This is the absolute definition of insanity.
JP
^^ I agree, should have happened weeks back but will now be more severe and last longer.
Yes, I know that's not what you meant JJ.
Still, got to be better than wearing a mask etc eh? Civ libs etc....
I agree, should have happened weeks back but will now be more sever and last longer.
https://twitter.com/spittingcat/status/1321502243691106311?s=20
Well if it doesn’t include school closures, you know what Tier 5 is going to be. I have never made recommendations, only provided analyses. But the picture looks reasonably clear. One hopes that the picture is sinking in.
We know four things from the epidemic curves (deaths, cases, admissions…)
Without any intervention the epidemic of cases and deaths doubles every 2-3 days (in multiple countries)
With lockdown restrictions and education closed, the epidemic halves every 14-21 days
With current restrictions and education open, the epidemic doubles every 10-14 days
There is a lag of about a week between actions and new cases, and another week from hospital admissions to deaths.
From this it’s relatively straightforward to infer the likely effects of lockdown, circuit breakers and so on.
Remember “a day’s delay, a week you’ll pay”? It’s a little better than that. But not much. We’re not even at evens - two weeks off for two weeks growth 🙁
Choosing not to synchronise half term with any "lock down" or circuit breaker reduces its effectiveness enormously. Who made that choice on behalf of England?
they can goto **** with a national lockdown, we aren't to bad here and the cases this week are actually less than last. i'll not be taking any notice of it if it happens.
bigfoot
Free Member
they can goto **** with a national lockdown, we aren’t to bad here and the cases this week are actually less than last. i’ll not be taking any notice of it if it happens.
Seriously. Well done you. Not occured to you that wherever you might live* will be just as hard hit? Very soon. Sooner due to activities of people like you.
Stunningly short sighted. I mean wtaf?
Anyway, no point in pointing out the obvious to some people so you go and do as you want I guess. Hopefully I don't live near you.
*unless you live in an area literally cut off from the rest of the UK/ world?
bigfoot
Free Memberthey can goto **** with a national lockdown, we aren’t to bad here and the cases this week are actually less than last. i’ll not be taking any notice of it if it happens.
Then frankly I hope you get the maximum penalties available.
More kite flying by ‘a Downing Street source’ (we all know it’s Dominic Cummings)
And where’s that other bloke? The useless **** who’s pretending to be prime minister? Nowhere to be seen, yet again
Britain doing what Britain does best.
Rank incompetency.
Any one with a modicum of understanding in terms of what would happen when human cognitive biases and conservative ideology collide in this context, could tell you what was going to happen. I fully expect this place to be a post apocalyptic walking dead style barren shithole when or if I go to and eventually return from the Netherlands - punctuated by the odd call centre manned by scared and dishevelled Gollum's with the reanimated corpse of Corbyn put in charge.
We know four things from the epidemic curves (deaths, cases, admissions…)
Without any intervention the epidemic of cases and deaths doubles every 2-3 days (in multiple countries)
With lockdown restrictions and education closed, the epidemic halves every 14-21 days
With current restrictions and education open, the epidemic doubles every 10-14 days
There is a lag of about a week between actions and new cases, and another week from hospital admissions to deaths.
From this it’s relatively straightforward to infer the likely effects of lockdown, circuit breakers and so on.
That is all so depressingly accurate. Unfortunately the only viable action could well be scuppered thanks to idiots who think:
they can goto **** with a national lockdown, we aren’t to bad here and the cases this week are actually less than last. i’ll not be taking any notice of it if it happens.
It's looking more and more likely that I won't be able to share christmas or my 40th birthday with my parents, one or both who may no longer be with me in 12 months. I utterly despise anyone who is responsible for the utter bit of a mess that masquerades for the 'Leadership' that has supposedly been managing this issue.
The original title of this thread (it's in the address bar) really does sum this whole mess up.
What seems like ages ago I posted about much more rigorous enforcement of the regs and increasing the fines for non-compliance.
More than ever I think that's necessary to reinforce the message.
If a new national lockdown is implemented...
- increase the minimum fine to £1,000 and the max to £25,000
- do not allow the police to 'exercise discretion' in applying the regs unless there is a proven medical reason
- adopt the French approach; official document required when leaving house.
Retail - mainly supermarkets - need to apply the regs more 'diligently'; if you claim exemption from mask wearing, show evidence; otherwise no mask = no entry.
Consider making all uni courses online unless the course content makes that impossible; all students whose course can be moved online to be tested and, if clear, sent home. If not clear, quarantine, re-test and send home when clear.
Re-fund rent payments.
More than a few practical problems in implementing ^^^ but delay, dither and death has been the gov's hallmark to date.
johnson can have that three word slogan on me.
So far, johnson & his polyps have been playing at this which is why the death toll is high, will get much worse and regulatory compliance is less than impressive.
As for bigfoot - what an irresponsible, ignorant attitude.
Try doing the right thing - or is that a concept which you don't understand?
Just thinking aloud here...
What I don't get is the very people that constantly moan about wearing a mask (I know a couple) are the very same people that are the first up in arms when regional/national lockdowns are announced. I know masks are mostly about marginal gains but if you won't even modify your behaviour to wear one of those, what are the chances of you bothering to wash your hands** or distance from people?
** I'm more inclined to think that a lot of guys don't even bother to wash their hands after having a sh*t let alone due to Covid after the moaning they do about wearing a mask for 5 minute in a shop. Yes, I find it's mainly men that find masks somehow abhorrent to their sensibilities.
So theme tune for Britain's second lockdown?
I'm thinking....
Sage warned them in September, but it was ignored.
They had a perfect opportunity to try a 2-3 week circuit breaker around half term, but it was ignored.
It's been bloody obvious to experts, and curious observers like me, what was likely to happen and what would be needed. Someone, somewhere must be preparing a fantastic version of the Hitler bunker video.
Christmas, and several thousand people, are now ****ed.
Proposing a socially distanced march on Parliament to protest "no confidence" in the government is probably unwise, but I can't help thinking that flooding MPs post bags and inboxes calling for a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister and some sort of government of national unity might be a start.
While I'm inclined to agree with frankconway about a zero tolerance approach on enforcement, that ship has sailed. Numbers who are entrenched in their attitude of non-compliance outweigh the Police resources required to deal with it. Yet another example of the consequences of 10 years of austerity depleting public services, poor legislation and poor communication.
And Bigfoot, yeah well, he's not worth the ban so I won't bother.
With such stunning foresight, I suppose they must be surprised every time the sun rises. What I’d give to be so totally oblivious to reality, it must be a lot less stressful than seeing it coming and not being able to do anything about it!
A worrying theme in my shop this week in West Yorkshire, is that this time round more and more of my customers know someone who has tested positive, as this person didn't die that means that its a whole load of fuss about nothing. I have pointed out that the LGI has already got 5 wards full of people that might...
And last week a customer high up at a Uni told me that they had had conversations with government about the best time for a lockdown. Uni said October break, government said later in November. Uni pointed out that if they left it too late, all those Covid Kids would go home early for Christmas.
Yes there we go, another “leaked by a government advisor” headline. Likely an announcement Monday and we’ll still wait until Friday to lockdown - several weeks too late. This cannot be anything more than criminal negligence.
We have to do our bit, but there will be one or two rules I'll break. I'm buying a house with my partner who I do not live with currently so we will continue to see each other illegally until our move in date.
Cant really see how the logistics of moving will work if we dont.
At least I'll get to go and stand in a room for an hour with 30 disease bags 6 times a day!!
Poopscoop
Full MemberJust thinking aloud here…
** I’m more inclined to think that a lot of guys don’t even bother to wash their hands after having a sh*t let alone due to Covid after the moaning they do about wearing a mask for 5 minute in a shop.
Bleugh. Eurgghhh.
I want to say you're wrong but I know you're right.
Euwww.
What I’d give to be so totally oblivious to reality, it must be a lot less stressful than seeing it coming and not being able to do anything about it!
That's a very pithy and accurate description of how I feel.
Father in law (closing in on end stage prostate cancer) has just come out of hospital, essentially in due to the stress and exhaustion of caring for mother in law with mild but advancing dementia. She's in respite till next week, they have a move to supported accomodation planned for end of November. I'd hope any lockdown would at least let that happen, for everyone's sake.
From reading the BBC article, it sounds like "We're going to lock you up till christmas, let you out for a week to all get ill and then lock you up again!"
I don't have the attachment to Christmas some do, but surely its better just to say - not this year.
Looking like Cumming's Wile E. Coyote has ratcheted us well and truly out over the cliff. By floating this now (as mentioned above) we risk the big flee home from the students. Plenty of people going for one last pre-restriction beer / trip. At least it's going to be a wet weekend which will contain a big breakout to the country. If they are going for it then hopefully it comes in before next weekend - otherwise it's one last hurrah again. No doubt Boris will undermine the message with some we don't want to do it... freedom loving funtimers of the world unite closing statement.
It's probably fair to expect Captain Funtime's big Christmas blow out when it ends - which would just seem to be storing up problems for late January / February. I can see a lot of pressure to return to pre-national local lock down tiers from the regions. We do a month, come out in December then there is a demob happy mixing for a week or two then straight into Christmas mixing.
It's just messy.
The BBC article suggests unis will stay open. So absolutely no forward plan for unis at Christmas. Either get students tested and sent home on a rolling basis from now, or you'll have to keep them at uni over Christmas to prevent thousands of potentially infected students reseeding the virus around the country in one big wave.
Anyway, we have enough loo roll, pasta and rice to see us through for 2-3 weeks. But we are a bit low on guinea pig food, hay and sawdust. And if I need to go and get some of that in town I may pop into the Easy Barber and get a #2 all over like I did just before lockdown, which saw me through for 3 months.
And I might go and get a decent flat white while I still can....
Why leave the schools open? All the mums congregate while dropping their darlings off at their socially distanced queue and then the older ones have a scrum at the bus stop.
Leave the shops open and shut the schools.
Politics innit zippy. That option left the station a week ago and we were not on board.
"Leaking" this now (controlled/managed leak I guess in the standard Government manner of trying to avoid anything that looks like a decision) is just going to give s weekend of wild speculation about what might be coming, the level of lockdown, the rules over Christmas etc until the actual press briefing on Monday.
Although I assume by then they'll have run through the responses, worked out what they can get away with politically and be able to implement it by pretending it's their Grand Plan.
Anyway, one weekend where everyone will be panic buying and seeing all their mates for one last piss up. Well done Boris you massive shower of ****tery.
Sage warned them in September, but it was ignored.
They had a perfect opportunity to try a 2-3 week circuit breaker around half term, but it was ignored.
It’s been bloody obvious to experts, and curious observers like me, what was likely to happen and what would be needed. Someone, somewhere must be preparing a fantastic version of the Hitler bunker video.
Christmas, and several thousand people, are now ****.
This x1000. As predicted back in the summer, this government is destined to squander every opportunity placed in its path. People should be rightly angry about the extent of the lockdown to come, and the economic damage it causes, because this lot have chosen it through failing to follow clear scientific advice.
At least I’ll get to go and stand in a room for an hour with 30 disease bags 6 times a day!!
With the windows open and because it's a recirculating heating system no heating (but the parks guy who did the risk assessment reckons it'll be fine). I had a no biscuits meeting because I moved a class from a stuffy no open windows room to my cold and draughty sanctum.
They had a perfect opportunity to try a 2-3 week circuit breaker around half term, but it was ignored.
If I was being cynical, they have seized the opportunity perfectly. By locking down again now rather than 3-5 weeks ago, the chaos spirals over into New Year and disguises (some of) the No Deal chaos that's about to hit us.
This is a way of hiding the catastrophe of Brexit that's waiting around the corner. Claim they were following the advice, claim that the Tier system would have worked if it wasn't for the rulebreakers (and immigrants and hungry children going out foraging and...and...), pretend they're trying to save Christmas and then oh no, everything that goes wrong afterwards is all to do with Covid, not Brexit.
Hands up who thinks it will be an actual lockdown, as opposed to the loose fudge of last time, where we all use our common sense to drive to Basrnard Castle?
I'm struggling to find the data, but it seems the England figures are still climbing, but Scotland maybe slowing, NI possibly slowing, (some) of Wales slowing...
TiRed care to comment?
(I don't mean this as a nationalistic competition, more there are 4 different approaches to managing things now, and becoming more distinct. I'm interested in how the figures differ and why we think they are differing. If at all of course.)
Schools open <> lockdown.
That’s it. Hope that any extra measures above Tier 3 manage to stabilise transmission rates. I’m not hopeful. But the measures will have an effect
At the moment, very roughly:
Tier 1 - admissions doubling 7-14d
Tier 2 - admissions doubling 14-21d
Tier 3 - admissions doubling >21d
Tier 4?
Lockdown - admissions halve every 21d
Yes it really is about that simple I am afraid.
Is it true...that last week only 2 people were admitted into hospital across the UK with Influenza? (Was in a BBC piece about fact checks)...is this normal because I would have guessed it might be in the hundreds if not thousands?
Words fail me at this, yet another, inept response. The leaked ahead of time rule changes. The inconsistent messaging. The failure to follow any science. The failure to follow economic evidence. The failure to follow their own rules. The utter shambles, just every time, in every matter.
What did we as a country do to deserve these ijits
Words fail me at this, yet another, inept response. The leaked ahead of time rule changes. The inconsistent messaging. The failure to follow any science. The failure to follow economic evidence. The failure to follow their own rules. The utter shambles, just every time, in every matter.
Follow The Dogma!
no action on schools and universities means a half arsed lockdown, thats already ignoring the health service (gps hospitals care homes) and the ever expanding list of key workers.... im not voting for a police state, so whatever lockdown will be ineffective.
father christmas is not a key worker.
vaccine or brace yourselves for a lot of (unnecessary) deaths. ive low expectations for a vaccine and the pace at which it can be rolled out, so deaths.
or the modern version which i believe is pronounced lattebulate - same but with milky coffee
The govt should be ashamed. Not only have they condemned thousands to a COVID related death, they’ve condemned others like me who now know for sure there is no chance they will see their loved one ever again. I’m out.
C Pagel is reporting a significant increase in infection amongst 20-40yo women, a high proportion of whom work in hospitality, education, care and retail.
If you close non essential retailers...you could well have to do what the Welsh did with regards to blocking off certain areas of supermarkets...because people will look to supermarkets to buy "these non essentials"...meaning huge footfall which will create a problem in itself...this is the problem with rules and laws...they produce hydra like effects and thus require more rules and laws.
Lockdown – admissions halve every 21d
Yes it really is about that simple I am afraid.
If everything is off and running as wildly as it seems four weeks isn't enough. Six looks a fighting chance but then Christmas mixing sets us back again. Do we go for nine weeks to avoid another return to national restrictions? A block of six and another block of six or more late winter? Four and go for a bigger block after? We're also into which is the least worst option for Brexit - businesses in lock down in the run up or businesses in lock after the end of the transition.
This winter… always remember that the scale of the economic damage, the lives lost, and the effects on the mental health of the nation, is down to a political decision.
I believe private health care is booming at the moment...i read one guy saying save your annual new car, holiday and home improvements and put that into private health care?!
Susie Dent, I salute you 😁👍
Be interesting to see how schools hold up in terms of pupil and teacher attendance. We are going to be pretty lucky here in leafy West Berks as we are shutting down early if it happens, other places with 400/100 000 are going to find it tough to stay open I expect.