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but there is no shielding, and no support for people who arguably should be
Every man and woman for themselves, seems to be official government policy now.
why are we not taking the same view on age?
Why is no one shielding? Ask the PM.
Vallance saying tier 3 won't be enough, so why is there no tier 4?
Vallance saying tier 3 won’t be enough, so why is there no tier 4?
Who says there isn't?
How are the people over 70 catching this though?
It's incredibly contagious. For example studies have shown that covid can survive for at least 28 days on cash, and it's days on things like glass, plastic, even paper.
It's killed pretty quickly by UV light, but we get very little day light in the UK in Winter, and when we do, it's not very bright.
It's not hard for example to consider a 70 year old, popping to the shop, not going within 2m of anyone, everyone is wearing a mask, but they pick up a bag of pasta off the shelf, that 4 days before someone with covid picked up and decided not to buy, or the shop staff had covid etc, they take it to the till, pay with cash (few over 70s like using cards) get change etc. Their weaker immune system which means they'll suffer more from covid, is the same thing that means they're far more likely to not be able to fight off the infection from a simple touch.
It's staggering really, but for every 100 people with Covid, 80 don't know they have it, 20 will have symptoms but less than 4 of them will actually self-isolate. 3.4% of people with Covid, actually fully self-isolate.
I'd really love to see a proper study on how Royal Mail, Amazon and other couriers are spreading Covid between their colleagues and the letter/parcel recipients. An item can easily be handled by four posties just from the point of entering the delivery depot, before looking at its movement from the sender and through the distribution network.
The press brought it up.
How convenient, he could have just said this is a covid briefing
Vallance saying tier 3 won’t be enough, so why is there no tier 4?
Tier four is really silo three in the soon to be announced regional silo scale - which will run along side the covid alert levels land lock down tiers.
Is there any evidence people were catching it from surfaces in large numbers? Most 70+ people i know have incredible social lives and are at risk of catching it through close contact like the rest of us.
Is that a similar principle to the Silo in Fallout 4?
binners
Full Member
agree with the anger and 100% agree with criticism of the tories, but in their face of their c-ish intransigence, kinda have to lock down either way.We’re under Tier 2 lockdown now. We have been since the start of August. We were only out of lockdown for a couple of weeks. We’ve had nothing but lockdown since March.
It’s made the square root of * all difference to our infection rate.
So let’s just shut down the bits of our economy that are still open, with no financial aid
* off Boris!
The **** off stance sounds a bit silly tbh.
I'd guess given the gov have said they'll pay 80% of wages to business forced to close, sounds like there might be be an answer there..
ie. tell all business they must shut... guess would need to look into the details of that though. ie where does the authority lie in telling business to shut for eligibility.
Worth looking into I'd guess.
I’d guess given the gov have said they’ll pay 80% of wages to business forced to close
Have I missed something?
I know Liverpool are operating a top up scheme to try and make this happen for closed pubs there, but that’s not the same thing at all. Manchester are asking for an 80% government furlough scheme, as operated during the earlier “lock down”, for as long as businesses are made to close… if the gov has said that they’ll provide this, then I would expect local leaders to be more receptive towards the ramping up of their ongoing restrictions.
As an aside for those that receive it, this years Flu jab is pretty punchy. I had mine at 1pm, and now at 16:45 my arm feels like its done 5 rounds with Tyson, about 48 hrs earlier than last year.
I thought it was just me @kryton57...that was my experience too!
They haven’t said that. They’ve said they will pay 67% of the wages. Given that most people in hospitality are on minimum wage, that works out at 5.60 an hour
Fancy ‘living’ on that?
Me neither
The grants are a maximum of 3 grand a week per business. Most will get nowhere near that. How far do you think that a grand a week goes towards the costs of running a business? A city centre bar, for example. Where your overheads are the same but you have no income.
tell all business they must shut
They will never reopen.
The lockdown will end. The 80% salary thing will be stopped. And the jobs will be gone.
You're delusional if you think the Conservatives will invest the money to restart all those dead businesses.
We’re under Tier 2 lockdown now. We have been since the start of August. We were only out of lockdown for a couple of weeks. We’ve had nothing but lockdown since March.
Stolen from Twitter but worth repeating here.
We didn't have a lockdown.
We had middle class people hiding while working class people brought them things.
Is that a similar principle to the Silo in Fallout 4?
Honestly it just seemed to be the next spare term for making up a scale. Rule number one of the Team Boris pandemic handbook - no revision. Rule two - always have impenetrably vague jargon.
As an aside for those that receive it, this years Flu jab is pretty punchy. I had mine at 1pm, and now at 16:45
Had mine at 3pm...nothing so far...
Is there any evidence people were catching it from surfaces in large numbers?
Don't think so - the main transmission seems to be sustained proximity in poorly ventilated spaces, but that doesn't stop folk wiping all their shopping with dettol.
We had middle class people hiding
> cough <
There are some middle class people in health care… for example. But since we moved from “lock down” to “local measures” here, the support for working class people in roles that cannot be carried out at home, or in sectors still largely closed by law, has been steadily withdrawn… it is “post lock down” where so many workers have been left out in the cold.
Apologies for the LOLz but for fans of Friday Night Lights...
https://twitter.com/rabbitinahat/status/1317034766118551552?s=21
I’m in Greater Manchester where the pubs are still open. If I walk down to the bottom of our road, turn left and stroll a couple of hundred yards then I’m in Lancashire, where all the pubs are now shut.
I’m going to go out on a limb here and guess that my local might be a bit bloody busy this weekend. With people from all those communes of 6 people households that we didn’t know we had until recently
This is such a sad tale:
As an aside for those that receive it, this years Flu jab is pretty punchy. I had mine at 1pm, and now at 16:45 my arm feels like its done 5 rounds with Tyson, about 48 hrs earlier than last year.
Mrs stu had hers on Monday and says it's no where near as bad as previous years.
binners
Full Member
They haven’t said that. They’ve said they will pay 67% of the wages. Given that most people in hospitality are on minimum wage, that works out at 5.60 an hourFancy ‘living’ on that?
Me neither
The grants are a maximum of 3 grand a week per business. Most will get nowhere near that. How far do you think that a grand a week goes towards the costs of running a business? A city centre bar, for example. Where your overheads are the same but you have no income.
2/3rds then, what else do you think you are going to get out of it? Apart from headlines when youse become the most riddled part of the uk?
2/3rds then, what else do you think you are going to get out of it
I’d like to have a functioning economy by the time that the government has it test and trace sorted and we come out of lockdown in 2025
I agree it’s a pittance, but in reality do you think the tories are going to budge? They dont give a toss.
My concern is Team Boris are just going to sell it as all tests and fun time. I can't see how there can be back to normal; there are still going to have to be changes to behaviour. Otherwise it's just letting it rip and hoping you can spot and catch it before it takes hold. There are going to be tight margins and I suspect there will be under investment in fire fighting teams to deal with the inevitable flare ups. It would just leave us rapidly overwhelmed - again. Or we might actually find the sweet spot of monitoring, exposure and behaviour.
They dont give a toss
And if everyone just does what they say, without question, despite the shambolic way they’re going about this, they’re never going too.
good luck to yeez anyhow. Guess might be half a chance in a million youse will get something. Literally heehaw point up here in us even talking to the tories..
How are the people over 70 catching this though?
They wont be mixing within the work place, be involved within the education system, or down at the pub.
A friend of a friend works as a carer visiting people in their homes. She has a boyfriend at uni. She was working between visiting him and track and trace contacting her. Whilst self isolating she developed symptoms and tested positive. That’s how.
Sadly, it won't be long until they add Bradford, Leeds, Hudds & Sheffield to Tier 3.
Hopefully the good folk of Calderdale will be spared......
A friend of a friend works as a carer visiting people in their homes. She has a boyfriend at uni. She was working between visiting him and track and trace contacting her. Whilst self isolating she developed symptoms and tested positive. That’s how
I’m sure all of this was possible by complete adherence to the rules. You’re allowed to bubble with someone.
That role is being a key worker and wouldn’t be changed by any imposition of lockdown or any other restrictions.
Nosocomial (hospital acquire), nursing homes
Same with these.
Testing and preventative actions are currently at the highest level they have ever been and it’s an activity which wouldn’t change with an increase in restrictions or lockdown.
It’s not hard for example to consider a 70 year old, popping to the shop, not going within 2m of anyone, everyone is wearing a mask, but they pick up a bag of pasta off the shelf, that 4 days before someone with covid picked up and decided not to buy, or the shop staff had covid etc, they take it to the till, pay with cash (few over 70s like using cards)
Again if this is seen as essential shopping only, no change in restrictions is going to have any meaningful effect.
Which only leaves:
general contacts, grandchildren
The rating for Swaledale has changed to “HIGH” on the NHS App but then Gov website still says Medium? So no idea if I can visit people legally or not!
Not that I have any friends or family too visit even if I could.
This thing is combined with a relationship breakdown really is trashing my mental health in a big way now....
My parents, late 60s an array of health conditions between them, have been eating out at least once a week since sunaks scheme
Just the 2 of them or with friends, they've also been helping out my brothers with the school run
They are aware of the risks but they've definitely stopped taking things so seriously
They are aware of the risks but they’ve definitely stopped taking things so seriously
Good for them.
We didn’t have a lockdown. We had middle class people hiding while working class people brought them things.
Pretty much this. I'm a postie in Merseyside, been working flat out since it kicked off. 100+ staff milling about in a poorly ventilated office for a few hours before going out to interact with the public, touch hundreds of gates and letterboxes every day. Number who've been properly sick (as opposed to lead swinging)? Zero. This despite the shabby company we're working for abandoning any pretence at displaying an interest in the safety or health of their workforce. Any notion of social distancing or Covid workplace safety is out of the window.
I find it all quite amusing, to be honest. I did the whole lockdown thing properly first time round, fitting in local rides alongside long shifts by the letter and spirit of the rules. This time? **** it, I'll just be heading off on my no/low risk self contained overnight bivi bike rides to carefully chosen sites where I encounter nobody, like I've been doing all summer to avoid the Great British Public, who could've stood up and done the right thing but instead made a conscious decision to behave like complete ****s.
Not everyone has behaved like that. Grow up
We didn’t have a lockdown. We had middle class people hiding while working class people brought them things.
This is a sweeping generalisation and quite frankly, utter bullshit.
The governments did not institute a lockdown anyway - even at its most restrictive it stopped well short of full lockdown
This middleclass nurse went in to work as usual. My middleclass teacher friends were all in work
Just the 2 of them or with friends, they’ve also been helping out my brothers with the school run
They are aware of the risks but they’ve definitely stopped taking things so seriously
So they have been in contact with kids, who have been in contact with lots of other kids in school, and their own families, and friends, and colleagues etc.
My parents are the same. They say they have not been in contact with anyone other than a small circle of friends but they cuddle their grandchild who lives in a different area with a different family and goes to school full of 100's of other kids.
I'm not saying dont see anyone, but lots of people are unaware of how many people they are in contact with because they assume those who they do see, dont see anyone else.
no change in restrictions is going to have any meaningful effect
It will if it stops the increase in number of people infected. We need to control infection in the community to protect at risk people. Your examples show that at risk people can’t realistically be cut off from the rest of society, so we all need to act to keep the virus under control in the larger community, not act as if there is a firewall between at risk people and everyone else.
We didn’t have a lockdown. We had middle class people hiding while working class people brought them things.
As a bone fide working class person (unlike Mrs TiRed and my children), I resent this. I’ve also had someone bring me things on occasion! And I have immense respect for people who have worked hard throughout the challenges we’ve faced.
Although things look grave and it is easy to point fingers, people need to realise that most people have done the right thing. It’s just that the pathogen is highly transmissible and it doesn’t take a lot to push thing into growth. School returns were enough. Two weeks off school will help, but don’t expect the decline we had before. Halved in about three weeks and is doubling in one to two.
This, plus it was already clearly increasing gently before schools even went back. Pubs opening was the start of it. It was mostly in the younger age groups so hospitalisation and death stayed low but the virus was spreading. Schools opening just gave it enough extra to be really problematic.
China now is giving people an anti virus jab that has been tested properly and is said to be is safe. Has two parts to it.
Tired, bone fide working class man, OBE!!
So in cycling terms we're looking at team time trial mode.... a turn on the front taking the pain for long enough to make a difference followed by a turn in the wheels recovering a bit - not freewheeling, but bearable. But if we keep turns short enough that you don't blow we can overall do more than if we just sit at threshold.
Trouble is at this stage that some are being asked to do longer turns, some are failing to take a turn, and others are seeing those failing to take a turn and thinking if they don't, why should I? Our team leader's turned up in a baggy suit and is about as aero as a fly tipped sofa, and his mate's decided that he can ride an e-bike even though it's against the rules he made up. Allez allez allez.....
So in cycling terms we’re looking at team time trial mode…. a turn on the front taking the pain for long enough to make a difference followed by a turn in the wheels recovering a bit – not freewheeling, but bearable. But if we keep turns short enough that you don’t blow we can overall do more than if we just sit at threshold.
Excellent analogy.
I thought graphics were meant to make things clearer
The comments about getting reliant on 'uncle sugar' and 'sometimes you just have to sit back and let the private sector get on with it' are grotesque.
I'm not in an area of lockdown currently and my business won't be technically 'forced to close' even if we are so I'll get nowt but there's no work in it any more.
See also all sorts of people who provide services to nightclubs, festivals, conferences; av hire, sound engineers, staging, production managers etc etc
We've all been encouraged for years to be self employed or run businesses and now we have to live on the shitty benefits system they've designed to punish a tiny percentage of scammers/scroungers. We are seriously ****ed.
Meanwhile they hand out billions to their mates to pretend to supply face masks or deliver a useless test and trace system they pretend has something to do with the NHS.
I'd never heard of 'uncle sugar' until this week - I see it's another americanism. More importing of more clap trap like defunding. We've been successfully cutting the public sector budget and under investing in the welfare state for years. Uncle Sugar just seems to be a smoke screen for sorry we've lived hard and fast and left nothing for the rest of you (vaguely misquoting). Or following the strict rule of Boris and getting the war in - decades of exploitation of instead of investment in society have sown the wind and now we are reaping the whirlwind.
Tired, bone fide working class man
Son of a tradesman, single parent family and first to sit A levels and go to uni 🙂
As for the public sector, we kid ourselves what governments can really do, particularly in the short term. Short of training the army to run pcr machines (Machines magically from where?), you need business. Companies that are competent and have a track record of delivery. I have no issue with that.
Measures of competency are another thing. As is tasking the impossible. At least we seem to be following the Germans along the road to devolved testing and tracing.
A moment of inspirational analogistic communication from theotherjonv, thanks for that.
So in cycling terms we’re looking at team time trial mode…. a turn on the front taking the pain for long enough to make a difference followed by a turn in the wheels recovering a bit – not freewheeling, but bearable. But if we keep turns short enough that you don’t blow we can overall do more than if we just sit at threshold.
Agreed, only in this instance the team car has decided that the riders don't really need food, so they're keeping it back for themselves, just in case.
I'm bone fido working class, it's a dog's life.
I stumbled across this on the WHO website, an estimate of IFR from seroprevalence data taken from about 80 separate studies.
Makes for interesting reading if you were wondering what the IFR is.
Some of the studies cited have some pretty interesting numbers, including a slum in Mumbai with 54.1% testing positive for antibodies.
EDIT: also kind of interesting given who the author is.
Son of a tradesman
Posh!
You arent working class anymore, like I'm not either and I have more degrees than both my parents had o levels, saying that I have no idea if my father even did them, but my step dad certainly had none!
150 deaths today, 80 a week ago!
I’m not sure what data we’re waiting for to take proper action? Time for everyone to make their own call in this again… the gov only want to follow not lead… just as in the spring. We’ve been hoping they’d learnt the lesson from the spring that they need to be preemptive… where as, in fact, they’ve learnt that they can get away with waiting ‘till most people have looked at the data and made the move already. I’m aware that there’s little you can do as a teacher AA, but companies need to step back to minimal social contact, and we need to do the same in our off time as well.
oldagedpredator
Full MemberI’d never heard of ‘uncle sugar’ until this week – I see it’s another americanism. More importing of more clap trap like defunding.
I saw it starting to creep in with obvious US bots/posters on reddit and facebook and stuff where they'd just got the localisation wrong and thought everything was about the US. But now it seems to have caught on a bit with real people, mostly as a sort of shibboleth for easily idenfifying absolute ****ers.
"Defunding" is different though, it's a real and possibly very important thing that just has had massive amounts of effort and bots and stuff thrown at derailing and misrepresenting it.
(Defunding started out as a call to take things like mental health, homelessness and drug responses off the police, because they keep on shooting people for the crimes of autism and poorness, and take away the funds that were spent on that with the police, and give it to more appropriate operators.
Then, when black lives matter started really getting traction and more and more people were seeing how some police departments and police unions act like organised crime gangs, defunding became part of suggestions to break that deadlock- it wsa never about "let's have no police", it was about "if these particular police act above the law and above public redress, let's defund them, and spend the money on some less murdery police instead". The way law enforcement is funded in the US is insane, so stopping things like civil forfeiture and other self-interested negative feedback loops would be sensible.
That Ioannidis thing is the usual bollocks that's been ripped apart on twitter by people far more knowledgeable than me. Basically, cherry-picked to give an answer as low as he can manage, and it's still a lot higher than he was saying earlier.
eg here
https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1316511734115385344?s=20
Someone posting that ioannidis study else where was what prompted my fag packet maths 4 pages ago.
Under 70 = 6772 deaths / 3,955,877 * 100 = 0.17%
Over 70 = 31632 deaths / 709,622 * 100 = 4.45%
ps if you take the uk as a whole, puts it as:
7% of 66.65m - 4.6655m
so 43429 / 4665500 * 100 = 0.93%
I came up with that. (happy to hear criticism, I'm just about understanding, so have no attachment to these numbers, but they are based on the assumption that half a billion people have had covid, ie 7% of the population, which is the last concolusion on the ioannidis paper)
Tbh the biggest conclusion I came away from reading it was that, there's probably a lot of countries not recording their covid deaths correctly?
It's clear that the IFR is low for under 70s, which we all know anyhow, but either countries don't have a lot of over 70s or their reporting is wrong. I mean criticise the uk all we like, they deserve it, but I think the reporting here is at least something approaching accurate,
disclaimer, an utter laymans view of things, would be interested to hear more opinions. My mind is pliable on the matter if someone can present interesting views.
That Ioannidis thing is the usual bollocks
Generally, it’s the quiet ones you should listen to. As time passes, the relatively early null hypothesis will come to pass. That this is a pathogen that does not have widespread pre-existing immunity, has low mortality in the young, but a considerable burden on the elderly, and that reinfection cycles look like the other endemic coronaviruses.
I have little time for him. Wanting something to be true and bending interpretations of data to meet that desire has to have testable hypotheses if you all want to be scientific.
As for the public sector, we kid ourselves what governments can really do, particularly in the short term. Short of training the army to run pcr machines (Machines magically from where?), you need business. Companies that are competent and have a track record of delivery. I have no issue with that.
Measures of competency are another thing. As is tasking the impossible. At least we seem to be following the Germans along the road to devolved testing and tracing.
For me sustained under investment is as much about future effectiveness as it is about our capabilities right now. I have no problem with bringing in extra private sector capacity. it's just not allying to the existing expertise for what seems like no other good reason than the dogma of we don't need the state that frustrates me.
We have cut public services to the bone - the inevitable 'belt tightening' measures are now going to involve bone shaving. Euphemistically - that's going to be quite painful. There's no oh we can rely on charities - they're facing their own significant financial challenges. Many of the small ones aren't even going to be at bone shaving it's lights on or lights out. If the solution to cover off that shortfall becomes an outsourcing one then we are just haemorrhaging money.
Completely agree. It’s the pretence that the public sector will provide and is then found seriously wanting. Germany has devolved healthcare and has done very well. We’ve been sending tests to their labs due to over-capacity. Italy was sending their ITU patients!
companies need to step back to minimal social contact, and we need to do the same in our off time as well.
It's heading that way - most employers seem to be working towards that again anyway. MrsMC and I are both involved with a variety of local youth groups, which as it stands, have exemption to carry on even at Tier 3. We are firmly of the view that "just because you can, doesn't mean that you should". She'd already pulled the plug on indoor Guide meetings before the GG announced it, and has a couple of outdoor evening ideas lined up.
The other groups we are involved in we are on the committees, so it's not our sole decision. We spent an hour or so in bed this morning discussing options, tactics in committee meetings, and working out funding/budgets. On our weekend lie in. Who said romance was dead? 🙂
companies need to step back to minimal social contact
My company have never stopped 300 office based staff sent home the week before lock down, nk expecration of return before next year. We did plan a small trial return with my team, 10 people back in 2 days a week in an office that normally holds 70, canned that idea 6 weeks ago at the first hint of a pick up in cases before we returned. Out MDs approach is why take the risk with peoples health and business viability when we're managing work from home. We want to go back, but only when it's sensible to do so. Boris's pleas to return for the sake if Starbucks fell on deaf ears.
Completely agree. It’s the pretence that the public sector will provide and is then found seriously wanting
Was that the case? As I understand it the slow start with testing were primarily due to PHE and their consultants (since like any public sector institution they have had resources slashed aside from when it comes to handing it to private sector consultants) pushing a highly centralised system using a handful of private companies with even NHS trusts being discouraged from using their own labs.
Boris’s pleas to return for the sake if Starbucks fell on deaf ears.
Yeah the large company I worked for response could be summed up as "I am sure you read what Johnson dribbled out but dont worry we arent idiots".
They have opened offices and are keeping them open where possible but they have made it clear its only for those who for whatever reason find working from home difficult.
Quick question: How many ICU beds do we have in total? I'm watching the number of Covid cases in hospitals rise fast and just want to know at what point the whole system will be full. I know certain places have more capacity than others and that the Nightingale Hospitals will take some of the strain off the rest of the system but I can't find a definitive answer on our capacity for regular beds.
Yeah the large company I worked for response could be summed up as “I am sure you read what Johnson dribbled out but dont worry we arent idiots”.
They have opened offices and are keeping them open where possible but they have made it clear its only for those who for whatever reason find working from home difficult.
As did most of the Civil Service. 😎
And the good news is that there is evidence of negative curvature in the rate of growths of hospital admissions...Below is a projection NOT a model prediction - it only assumes that things will follow in the same direction, and that deaths lag admissions. It will be wrong as intervention is coming of course (Tier2/3). But you get the idea. At 3000 admissions/day you are back in April.
anyone got any advice here
work for the NHS (psyc rehab, in patient) and rules constantly changing,
shift is 7am to 8pm - 1 hour break,
covid positive staff has provided a knee jerk reaction to enforcement of rules, which has evolved to at the moment
masks at all time, unless alone in an office with a closed door,
masks not to be removed to eat or drink while on shift unless in an office with a closed door,
can they actually enforce this? eating, not an issue, i can eat pre work, and on my break, but drinking? come on now, dropping my mask to take a swig of coffee whilst socially distanced, is that something they can actually enforce, considering if i ask to go to an office to have a drink, im technically taking a break
Ok I said 500 deaths by mid nov so there is clear blue water between my prediction and @TiRed above.
I don’t look forward to being proved right.
I'm hearing about new funded partnerships evolving between the NHS and university medical schools for doing t and t. It's an amazing discovery that medical schools and the NHS seem to know a bit more about all this stuff than Deloitte and Serco.
Dirtyrider, use a straw?.
I'd be seeking your unions advice tbh, 13 hours is too long to work with one drinks break.
I don’t look forward to being proved right.
Indeed - sadly the negative curvature is modest at best but highly statistically significant. That's a 90% prediction interval for daily observations from a Poisson regression. Uncertainty may be over-dispersed with a wider interval. But it's not looking great - "Baked in". London, the SE and the SW are about 10-14 days behind, as these bulk up the numbers, a pure log-linear exponential may be a better description - hence the 500. But London is locking down earlier than the North.
TiRed - Does the curve have 3 StdDev ranges?
My work were pretty ahead of the ball - they told me not to come in to work or even do any work in March. And stopped sending me any money which must have saved them some important money.
Nightingale Hospitals will take some of the strain off the rest of the system
Nightingales are due to be staffed from the referring hospital so that probably won’t help.