Outofbreath - yes the uk has always been very involved in disease outbreaks. My old uni (lshtm) has always been massively involved along with lots of others, there is also cepi and gavi of which we are involved lots.
My point is that the level of scientific research and treatment development for emerging infections has always been lower than that of existing known significant diseases and infections (bacterial resistance sadly being an exception as the prevailing view is that there is limited money in it and its bloody hard).
But if you look at the levels of investment in diseases of the developing world and emerging infections including the monitoring of those the money being spent is a fraction of that being spent on known and developed world issues.
Those who are working on them are doing a great job with what they have but as we have seen the level of infection monitoring and control across the world is not at a level that would have prevented this (or mitigated if that were possible).
Re kids
How many desperate parents woild hold a biryhday party for litylr alfie, with a spit all over the cake competition which then gets sliced ip and eaten or distributed intp other households
The local Burgerking re opened yesterday. Within hours the queue for the drive thru was out the door, and 200mtr down the road. Maybe 100 chavs desperate for crap food and willing to spend maybe 30 mins in a traffic jam to get it.
do you feel left out as Byron don't do drive thru's ?
No other virus has caused a Europe wide shut down since?
That's an immunity issue, not a transmissibility one. It's about as transmissible as most other respiratory pathogens to be honest. It's the absence of past immunity (and any treatments) that is the issue in this instance. Morbidity will probably turn out to look similar to influenza (~1% mortality in susceptible population, much lower in otherwise healthy). SARS-COV-1 and MERS were less transmissible, but more pathogenic. MERS is a LOT more pathogenic. Avoid camel sputum.
The novelty is that this is a new pathogen with no population immunity, not that it is particularly transmissible nor pathogenic. The sheer numbers mean that healthcare systems would not be able to cope, so we have artificially limited transmission as best we can. Some perspective is required.
Government advice says nothing of this.
It was all over the papers on Monday. George Eustice said it was coming during Sunday’s briefing from the government. No announcement yet about when the measures will begin… just that they were “coming down the line”.
On a side issue… did you quarantine the note? I’d be far more worried about a door to door busybody spreading the virus than you or your family.
The technology, officials seem to believe, will save us. Contact tracing apps have caught the imagination of politicians looking for ways to ease lockdowns and restart failing economies. They offer hope to world leaders looking for an answer to the tricky question of when the lockdown will end. They promise a return to normality, of sorts.
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/contact-tracing-apps-coronavirus
But there is little concrete evidence that they have any measurable effect. At best, tracing apps could aid the far more effective and complex sleuthing carried out by human contact tracers.
Behaviors will save us. Technology will help with behaviors. One sees this all the time at work where there is a general (mis)belief that systems are needed for disciplined and regulated activities. They help, but it is the actions of individuals that matter not the systems in place.
Government advice says nothing of this.
It was all over the papers on Monday. George Eustice said it was coming during Sunday’s briefing from the government. No announcement yet about when the measures will begin… just that they were “coming down the line”.I expect it will be much like other countries have impemented
Probably will be much like other countries. You register where you are going upon arrival and can be in trouble if you're not there when the po-po come knocking.
What I dislike particularly is the NONE OF YOU MUST LEAVE THE HOUSE FOR 14 DAYS, someone just trying to bully by distance.
Kelvin,
Cheers for that link, it was pure Monty python! Saying we've acted quicker than Italy is a bit like saying were better at cricket than Kazakhstan.
Seadog101,
You're doing nothing wrong according to gov't guidelines. Your neighbour might well be a vile small minded bully or he might just be a worried and concerned citizen who either mistrusts or has no confidence in government guidelines. The two things aren't necessarily mutually exclusive but you know this, ergo you posting here for feedback.
Some countries have implemented 14 day quarantines for anyone arriving from abroad, usually involving being put in a hotel. (Greece and Kenya for example) Their infection rates are miniscule compared to ours.
Not sure what I'd be doing in your situation, I'd probably be comforting myself that I was following government guidelines but would feel a little uneasy. I'd probably be posting on here for a bit of feedback!
I wouldn't be posting anything through your letterbox though!
It’s the absence of past immunity (and any treatments) that is the issue in this instance.
Would that be because its a novel virus? 😉
I wouldn’t be posting anything through your letterbox though!
Agreed. It’s a dick move, whatever the motivation.
Behaviors will save us.
The truth.
I know you are taking the piss, but no not really.
any virus can evade immunity as a result of mutations changing the structure of its antigens. This is one of the main reasons a vaccine against hiv has been so difficult as it mutates so rapidly the coronavirus because of its structure and size has a more stable genome but will still be susceptible to mutation, hence the main change that has happened with this one to increase its ace2 binding efficiency
One sees this all the time at work where there is a general (mis)belief that systems are needed for disciplined and regulated activities. They help, but it is the actions of individuals that matter not the systems in place.
True to an extent, if people refuse to use the system properly it won't make a difference. A well written and intuitive system will actively help to re-inforce good behaviours.
Some of my shipmates have returned to their home countries to face far stricter isolation rules.
Typically it ranges from self isolation at a their own designated address (or a desiganated hotel near their home) to actual quarantine in a hospital like facility.
any virus can evade immunity as a result of mutations changing the structure of its antigens
How many mutations are needed before it becomes suitably changed to be novel?
We could keep this up for hours as its purely semantics.
A new sub species of dandelion would still be novel even if we know a lot about dandelions. We could make some good assumptions about it but it could also do some things that are unexpected.
Would that be because its a novel virus? 😉
Nah, it's because it's a novel virus that's insensitive to any treatment. If it was knocked out by paracetamol instead of IV bleach, we'd all be laughing 😀
Behaviours will save us, definitely this but systems also have a role to play.
Witness seadogs paradox. In the absence of a system in place for quarantining seadog has been placed in a moral conundrum and I don't think that's fair. Some of his shipmates have returned home to much stricter rules. They may agree or disagree with their governments directives but they have no moral burden placed upon them.
This is how fast knowledge is coming. The link is a pdf preprint showing kids have similar levels of viral circulation as adults so infectiousness should be similar
Preprint will load pdf file
Abstract
Data on viral load, as estimated by real-time RT-PCR threshold cycle values from 3,712
COVID-19 patients were analysed to examine the relationship between patient age and
SARS-CoV-2 viral load. Analysis of variance of viral loads in patients of different age categories
found no significant difference between any pair of age categories including children. In
particular, these data indicate that viral loads in the very young do not differ significantly from
those of adults. Based on these results, we have to caution against an unlimited re-opening of
schools and kindergartens in the present situation. Children may be as infectious as adults.
The funny thing about Seadogs note is that its most likely to be him that needs to be protected from the virus infested british public!!
Very much so.
In the absence of a system in place for quarantining
That's clear instruction. I'm referring to technological systems. He doesn't need an app to tell him to stay outside. He just needs to be told. Welcome home btw Seadog.
This is how fast knowledge is coming. The link is a pdf preprint showing kids have similar levels of viral circulation as adults so infectiousness should be similar
Preprint will load pdf fileAbstract
Data on viral load, as estimated by real-time RT-PCR threshold cycle values from 3,712
COVID-19 patients were analysed to examine the relationship between patient age and
SARS-CoV-2 viral load.
Link not working (is it me?) but that sounds exactly like the study referenced in the tweet I quoted earlier. This link should download the pdf:
TiRed
I see what you mean now, technological systems different to clear instructions. Behaviour comes first, systems just monitor behaviour. (No need to teach birds how to fly)
I'm referring to lack of instruction placing moral burden on population / government abdicating moral responsibility with unclear instructions.
I was thinking in terms of the government having a system in place to deal with people entering the country.
@seadog101 - wouldn't worry about one person being a little Hitler. If you've done what you say you have (no reason to not believe you) then you're being far more sensible than a lot of the population, including the idiot putting letters through your door!
The local Burgerking re opened yesterday. Within hours the queue for the drive thru was out the door, and 200mtr down the road. Maybe 100 chavs desperate for crap food and willing to spend maybe 30 mins in a traffic jam to get it.
I usually have a Maccy D's or two per month as a little treat after a big ride. Once this is over or when they open up again I'll be avoiding them like the plague, prime area to pick it up.
I haven't listened yet but ought to provide some detail:
@paton , good to hear alternative views and from memory he's right about New York's Peak.
Behaviors will save us. Technology will help with behaviors. One sees this all the time at work where there is a general (mis)belief that systems are needed for disciplined and regulated activities. They help, but it is the actions of individuals that matter not the systems in place.
Discipling technologies are all around us just we take them for granted and don't notice them.
Y'all ready for 4 more weeks (at least?)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52486256
Thinking that is the death knell for a lot of businesses.
The roads are becoming increasingly busy near me, almost as if people are ignoring the lockdown now.
I'd like to see staged returns to normal fairly soon, but with caution. I've no wish to see that ****t Tim Martin open his horrible pubs up soon so pubs can go to the back of the queue. 😀
Y’all ready for 4 more weeks (at least?)
Where you getting that from?
Thinking that is the death knell for a lot of businesses.
Better than a real death knell for people?
Rydster,
Very interesting that panopticon thing. A bit like how religion works! (God is everywhere, he sees everything)
“YOUR HUSBAND HAS COME HOME.
YOU ALL NEED TO SELF ISOLATE FOR 14.
THAT MEANS NONE OF YOU MUST LEAVE THE HOUSE FOR 14 DAYS”Government advice says nothing of this. Called the police for advice and they said it’s utterly wrong, only neeed if anyone in the house is showing symptoms.
Given that it is wrong, I'd be reporting them for threatening behaviour, not just asking the police if its OK.
Coronavirus: Boris Johnson to update UK on 'steps to defeat' the disease
'kin hell, here we go again, Jolly Japes Johnson with the second world war rhetoric.
Can the man not just stand up and deliver a serious sensible message without mugging like a clown?
Paton,
Interesting to see a different point of view. Although I wonder what he'd be saying if he was working on an ICU ward in a metropolitan hospital.
A couple of things I think he didn't factor in. People were beginning to adjust their behaviour before official lockdowns were announced, I know I was and im sure some of yoi were too, so I wouldn't treat lockdown dates as absolute.
He notes how the virus has all but been eliminated in China but doesn't acknowledge that they achieved this with the comprehensive lockdown of one province, thus leaving the rest of China with no herd immunity. He says this will be of benefit to China economically but surely it still leaves the greater part of China vulnerable with no immunity at all.
He also referrences Sweden, a country with very low population density where single or low occupancy in households is common and the population in general is one of the healthiest in the world.
His general argument seems to be that if we did nothing things would have been worse but not a lot worse, the peak would have been higher but the tail shorter. I think we all get that, maybe it's just that our humanity got the better of us.
It doesn't help that he comes across a bit Dr Strangelove though.
The only thing we can say for certain about those who indulge in second world war rhetoric is that they didn't fight in the second world war. (Apart from those born in the 40's and 50's who fought so bravely of course.)
Have you ever seen an ex service person who actually fought in the war indulge in such rhetoric?
Im not expecting Matt Hancock to resign today, but seeing as mass testing is the only way we can begin to exit lockdown, how long before we at a level that sees us able to do it?
for comparison
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/these-are-the-oecd-countries-testing-most-for-covid-19/
Perils of a cheeky lockdown beer but....
Seadog, just write a line on the neighbours note and pin it on your gate mentioning that on your chartered flight back you were literally surrounded by flying seamen:)
Il get my coat.
I wonder if comparison to other countries will be skipped over at today’s briefing, now that Johnson is present…
[img] https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EW2gkZRWoAE0_BX?format=jpg&name=large [/img]
I've listened now, and this is deffo worth a listen he covers lots of stuff in detail:
His general argument seems to be that if we did nothing things would have been worse but not a lot worse, the peak would have been higher but the tail shorter. I think we all get that,
I think he was saying it would have been better overall. I agree with you it's not especially controversial amongst people that know. Apparently it's called a "Hot release" strategy. Pull the plaster off fast. When this all started there was a first report from the Oxford Group that made 'hot release' look like the best bet. In contrast the Imperial Group estimated 500k deaths and that made the Govt decide a lockdown was better. (Or at least lower short term political risk and certainly more popular at the time.)
Which report was right? We'll find out in a few years when someone properly looks at the numbers.
kin hell, here we go again, Jolly Japes Johnson with the second world war rhetoric.
Can the man not just stand up and deliver a serious sensible message without mugging like a clown
I'm waiting for him to actually speak before I get upset. Gives me longer to sharpen my pitchfork.
Not saying he won't be a ****. Just worrying that he's set our expectations so low.
I wonder if comparison to other countries will be skipped over at today’s briefing, now that Johnson is present…
A Z-score of 40 standard deviations... Hmmm I'd better check my analysis - the graph assumes normality - I do not. And a Z of 5 already high. I wonder where all the other mortality data came from. Not that it matters for the UK
I already can’t bear Johnson’s breathing… get back to bed… appoint a proper deputy to act in your absence. REST!
