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The track and trace Covid QR poster has been up over a week in my barber shop and only one person has scanned in. I'm asking folks about it and those that have downloaded it mostly have it switched off. As has been suggested nobody wants two weeks off work.
Burnham was always an impressive politician and today is yet another example of that.
An articulate, factual, focussed speech.
Yeah, he's done well. He's effectively saying "If you don't support us financially, I'll let people die" without sounding like a Kidnapper / Serial Killer.
But, I agree with him, we're in a recession, a deep one, technical or otherwise. Hardly a day goes by without another big employer announcing thousands of job losses and stress levels amongst the public are sky high. Telling people they have to close their business, miss work and all that without a safety net will be too much.
I'm as surprised as anyone when I say that public opinion in the UK seems to be switching towards a US style "every man for himself" approach.
It was quite clearly 'every man for himself' after Brexit and especially the 2019 election. Covid has just brought it into a much sharper focus. Which is sadly why day by day, I'm starting to feel more and more 'every man for himself' **** the rest, especially the boomers.
I’m as surprised as anyone when I say that public opinion in the UK seems to be switching towards a US style “every man for himself” approach.
I agree and it's been apparent for a while. I fear that this shift will suit Bojo and his cronies and just align people to voting tory in the future though. I sincerely hope those first time red wall voters remember how they've been treated by their elected Government next time around. It's just as likely that they'll think 'ooh, 1p off income tax. Great, I can afford a better iphone..'
He’s effectively saying “If you don’t support us financially, I’ll let people die” without sounding like a Kidnapper / Serial Killer.
No, he isn't; his message to johnson is...if you impose this without an adequate financial support package you, PM, will be responsible for the resulting deaths.
Kind of how the conversation goes in hostage negotiations...
TTI has to reach about 80% of contacts within 48h or something in order to be able to make a significant dent in things.
As has been said many times, you can contact 100% of folk but if they choose not to isolate then the best call centre in the world won't make a dent.
I'm finding anything to do with Tory management of the pandemic too depressing. I'm gonna listen to Morrissey to cheer myself up a bit
So here we are then, Martial law or Civil War will be the outcomes. Or actually, there won't be an outcome because the governments too weak, so because they'll be nothing decisive, everyone will now just do what they think they should do and we are basically going to socialise through this until a vaccine appears, counting the dead piling up outside the hospitals that won't cope.
On the one hand I applaud Burnham for sticking up for his region, on the other its just given people strength to mutiny against government direction. Tier 3 won't be obeyed, and we have death threats going to Essex politicians over a move to Tier 2. The North cases will rise, Hospitals will be swamped, people will die en-masse.
Its a lost plot awaiting science to bail us out while many succumb in the meantime or someone manages to dislodge this government, take control and get the job done, which. Pah, I don't see it, and we haven't added Brexit to the mix yet.
As Churchill said, Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others. Democracy and Capitalism has had its day in the UK, it'll move to dictatorship and communism with Leadership, Decision and state contribution - based on repaying COVID and Brexit damage - as a headline.
So come on Andy, you've stirred the pot now please lead the plate to the table - for everybody's sake.
It was quite clearly ‘every man for himself’ after Brexit and especially the 2019 election. Covid has just brought it into a much sharper focus. Which is sadly why day by day, I’m starting to feel more and more ‘every man for himself’ **** the rest, especially the boomers.
I got into a bit of trouble for it, but when the surge started I wrote this on FB.
"Hey Young People of the UK, don't forget the generation that gave you Tuition fees, Austerity and Brexit need you to stay home for 6 months to protect them from a virus that there's almost no chance will hurt you. I'm sure they they'll repay that sacrifice next election."
The red faced, "Traditional Tory" types who are dead against lockdowns and furlough payments etc, are the exact people Covid loves to kill. Sadly it likes to kill sweet old Men and Women too who only venture out for food etc.
Well, sitting here in Edinburgh & with no side to take in the North vs South debate, it feels to me like the North West of England have signed up to Donald Trump’s view of the virus. All that’s happening is you are putting off the inevitable tightening of restrictions with the resultant increase in death toll. Tief 3 or something similar is going to have to come in sooner or later. Don’t really know why you are celebrating, it’s your hospitals that are going to be full & Mancunians who are going to be dying.
You do know that Burnham and most GM MP's advocate a circuit breaker lockdown don't you?
You do know that Burnham and most GM MP’s advocate a circuit breaker lockdown don’t you?
What's their justifications for harming business and livelihoods in Cornwall which is not suffering from a rampant pandemic? (devil's advocate mode)
A region entering Tier3 on its own is likely to mean it staying in it all winter… going by what the government’s scientific advisors are saying … and without funding to support those working for closed businesses, the region is screwed over twice … jobs lost, incomes decimated, lives ruined AND an ongoing health emergency growing beyond what hospitals can deal with.
it feels to me like the North West of England have signed up to Donald Trump’s view of the virus.
What? Donald Trump's view of the virus is that I had the virus and beat it with REGENERON and amazing other million$ drug treatments. Everything is fine. There are no problems here, you can drink bleach to kill it.
Burnham is saying its he's not prepared to sacrifice the people he's responsible for to achieve the greater good. That's because it's totally within the government's remit to avoid that sacrifice, but they're just ignoring it. Burnham is doing his job, looking after his constituents. It's the government holding people hostage here, not Burnham.
I should qualify that by stating that it is conditional on financial support i.e. another round
of furlough payments.
Ignoring for a minute the cost-benefit analysis of this v letting it continue on its merry way, you need to look 4-5 weeks ahead in the less affected areas as 1. half term is upon us shortly (and Cornwall will surely see an influx of visitors) and 2. students will be on their way to the family home by mid December. We're a small well connected country in the main, this isn't Texas.
livelihoods in Cornwall
Close the Bristol region (cases rising there) and you shift activity west, and then you close that region and you shift activity west, and so on… waiting for each region to ‘blossom’ makes no sense at all. Contain the virus, and support those who are asked not to work, for a short period, ASAP, UK wide.
What’s their justifications for harming business and livelihoods in Cornwall which is not suffering from a rampant pandemic? (devil’s advocate mode)
Probably that if they can negotiate adequate support, then businesses can be protected and livelihoods saved in all regions. Don't know if they're supportive of a national lockdown or not. At this stage though, perhaps national does make more sense. If Cornwall is fully open and neighbouring regions fully closed, does that increase the risk of importing cases to Cornwall?
The rationale is that up here we’ve been under tier two since the beginning of August. And look where it’s got us
But as long as the south east is ok, they couldn’t give a **** about us.
They put us under restrictions and immediately forgot about us
So Andy is saying if the South East has to make the same scarifies as the north and (perish the thought) share the pain then the government might actually stop pissing about and sort their shit out over test and trace, financial support etc
That’s an opinion widely shared up here, and has won Andy massive support in vocalising it so forcefully
We know ‘our’ government couldn’t give a toss about us, so it’s quite refreshing to see a politician, particularly such an able one, actually stand up and represent us
Sorry, but I think they are playing politics to a particularly receptive gallery & it will just end up with more deaths. It feels horribly reminiscent of people voting Brexit & cutting off their noses to spite their faces.
So Andy is saying if the South East has to make the same scarifies as the north then the government might actually stop pissing about and sort their shit out over year and trace etc
The key bit you are missing from this is the relative rates of infection. That is why the North West is being expected to close down.
The SE isn't far behind the NW. Watch the infection rates climb higher in the next 7 days
Here's my fag pack analysis of how restrictions are going up here.
Looks like the initial restrictions are putting a mild dent in, recent restrictions I'll predict will be another wee bit of a dent in.
But it's obviously not enough.
They are allowing it to happen again from what I can see...
[img] 
[/img]
Incompetence reigns.... tbh, if the restrictions work I'll be utterly amazed.
but looks like they are just slowing the upward trajectory, nothing more.
The SE isn’t far behind the NW. Watch the infection rates climb higher in the next 7 days
In which case I would expect them to go to Tier3. Time will tell. But the danger is if the NW 'fights this off' then that will just give an excuse for the SE not to to go up a Tier & effectively we will no longer be fighting the virus.
The NW want measures that work, and aren’t paid for by those within the region alone. The government is offering neither. It is proposing measures that won’t be enough (as stated by its own scientific advisors) with no path to coming out of them all winter, paid for with local jobs and household incomes.
Measures need to be:
1) effective
2) funded
3) temporary
From the last week or so of posts on here there are two themes.
1 - a harder lockdown, or a short circuit breaker is desirable.
2 - gov / Cummings using media / leaks / whatever as a national focus group.
Add the inability of enforcement of an unpopular lockdown and the path is clear; froth up enough hatred of the government that we are collectively begging to be locked down again.
I’m not sure if Burnham has helped or hindered this; but (as a young southerner for full disclosure) I agree with him in that saving lives now at the expense of the next few decades of Manchester’s economy is not the smart move.
Why is the highest Tier “Insufficient on its own” in the words os Chris Whitty? Shouldn’t a sensible Tier System have a top level you know will work?🤷🏼♂️
The key bit you are missing from this is the relative rates of infection. That is why the North West is being expected to close down.
Didn't hear him saying they opposed the lockdown, just that they refused to do it without adequate financial support. And I'm with Binners, if the situation was reversed geographically, financial support would be on the table without question. Like it was in March. Unless I've read it incorrectly, civilised countries like Germany are increasing their financial support at this time.
First lockdown was pretty well supported, as evidenced by the tracking data by Google/Apple. Fundamental to that success is the financial support. Without it, it's simply not possible for many to comply. So a lockdown without that support is doomed to fail. That probably supports the narrative though, so the tories can set fire to the north and then blame them for their own dead. Disgusting.
kelvin - add timely to your list above.
We know ‘our’ government couldn’t give a toss about us
Unfortunately a lot of people now seem to have whole heartedly bought into the ideology people are a consumable and expendable commodity. The governments always seem to have been of that view - something rotten at the heart of the establishment? It is the Eton care pathway - calling it a managed decline is being overly generous.
Off on a tangent - Lighthouse labs - sounding less shoe leather and more shoe string. We are just trying to do it all on the cheap.
I’m presently watching on north west news, Sir Graham Brady, head of the Tory backbench 1922 committee point out that every single MP and council leader, Tory and Labour are unanimously behind Andy on this
That’s not something I thought I would ever see
Everyone knows that if they put us in tier three then we’ll be in it until next year. They shoved us in tier two at the beginning of August then forgot about us. There was no plan to get us out of it then, there isn’t one now.
To do that with no financial support package will absolute decimate our economy which is on its knees already.
They can **** right off!
You’ve been able to feel the anger building up here for weeks now. Particularly among small business owners who would normally represent the bedrock Tory support. Even the Tory MPs in the region know it. Every single one of them has said so today. They need to hear it in Westminster and do something about it
The alternative is a re-rum of the mass unemployment and hopelessness of the 80s
Levelling up? Yeah, right. Not even Tory MPs are buying that shite any more
his message to johnson is…if you impose this without an adequate financial support package you, PM, will be responsible for the resulting deaths.
That's not what was being shown in the BBC coverage, just the refusal to bow down - the context of "without adequate support" wasn't noticeable. Which rather leads to
its just given people strength to mutiny against government direction.
I absolutely support Burnham on this, but he needs to up his media game to overcome the way it comes across.
Matt Hancock has urged local leaders to "set aside party politics"...
There's more from little matty but Graham Brady might want to correct hancock; there is unity and unanimity across the political spectrum in the North.
It's time for sunak and the BoE to fire up the printing presses - well, not exactly as that's old school but money creation.
The notion that '...we can't afford...' is nonsense; the government can choose to afford whatever it wants. This has been commented on at length on the Coronanomics thread.
his message to johnson is…if you impose this without an adequate financial support package you, PM, will be responsible for the resulting deaths.
That’s not what was being shown in the BBC coverage, just the refusal to bow down – the context of “without adequate support” wasn’t noticeable
I haven't seen tv news but the full speech which I listened to didn't leave me in any doubt about his message to johnson.
Burnham's media game is strong as evidenced by the airtime he gets but he has no control over how BBC and, possibly, others will only use edited clips in news reports.
I’ve just watched a northern Tory MP stand up in Parliament and angrily describe the meeting this morning with semi-lucid houseplant Helen Whately as ‘a complete waste of time’ and said trying to communicate with the government was ‘like talking to a wall’
And that’s the Tory viewpoint from up here. So he was probably being generous
He certainly wasn’t ‘playing party politics’ as little Matty Handjob would have us believe
I haven’t seen tv news but the full speech which I listened to didn’t leave me in any doubt about his message to johnson.
The full speech was excellent. BBC news at 6 wasn't showing the full speech, just the "you can **** right off" bit. Which was the point I obviously failed to get across
The website is a bit more balanced - the video isn't the edit that made it clear from here, but there are quotes from the trimmed bits. Loving this bit from the article though:
But Health Secretary Matt Hancock said local leaders should "set aside party politics" and work with the government, with cases rising "exponentially" in the north west of England.
"This is a time for people to come together so that we can control this virus," he said.
He added that an "unprecedented package of support" has been put forward
Looks like he's missed the brief that his fellow Tory MP's are siding with Burnham. And the meaning of the word unprecedented. A better package of support was put in place by YOUR government earlier this year, you utter dolt.
kelvin – add timely to your list above.
I was going to… but it’s already too late for the NW… the next few weeks will be hard no matter what measures come in, and when, sadly.
Just heard Hancock replying to one of the Stockport MPs (Hazel Grove) in the commons… his response was all about “cross party cooperation”… but the MP is a Tory (Wragg?), and he was complaining about the complete lack of cooperation and consultation between the government and its own Tory MPs.
Kelvin - that’s the one who described communicating with the government as ‘like talking to a wall’
The thing is that his constituency is leafy true blue Toryville. His constituents are natural Tory voters who know they’ll be watching their businesses go bust and their favourite bistro and wine bars boarded up if the government go ahead with this without a financial support package.
All I’ve heard today is praise for Andy Burnham sticking up for our communities, businesses, jobs and livelihoods against a tin-eared government
So, and also the WHO have told the UK to "get a grip" and TfL have been awarded a £1bn bailout - thats two months running the services - and Kahn has stated that TfL goes bankrupt on 17th October without it. That then gives them to December 17th before TfL switches the lights off.
Flippin 'eck, its not looking good for our Government is it. Surely someone can step in and stop this?
How long until enough letters are in to the 1922?
But yeah looks like the North is ****ed as the government don't care.
but then we all are come January so it's not going to get any better
Measures need to be:
It's almost like they have gone for pick two from:
Don't spend money
Effectively suppresses the virus
Protects the economy
Not convinced they have picked 2 of those.
more like just the one of don't spend money
more like just the one of don’t spend money
https://twitter.com/richardjmurphy/status/1316711335351275520?s=21
https://twitter.com/richardjmurphy/status/1316725489747329025?s=21
They've completely lost control by this point.
Mark Menzies, the Conservative MP for the Fylde, got so cross that he wasn’t allowed to ask questions that he hung up in frustration
They cant rely on the north south divide to push their agenda anymore because of the number of their own MPs representing Northern regions now.
Whilst is is not really the done thing to comment on leaked trial data, remdesivir has failed to show an effect on mortality in hospitalised patients on ten-day therapy in the who SOLIDARITY trial. I’m not at all surprised since the anti viral effects are modest and the patients are likely past the initial viral stage. This is the same population as was shown to benefit from dexamethasone in the RECOVERY trial.
Other treatments are still ongoing. Lilly halted their antibody trial for an adverse event in this same population, but such things are the rules of the game. AEs are not uncommon, even for antibody therapy, and they have not given any details yet.
Understand that In the cycle of drug discovery and development, we are so very early and running so very fast. Treatments will come but one has to be (a little) realistic, given this virus was unknown eight months ago. Antibody trials have read out in mild patients and are seeking early approval.
More profound disease is being tested with other anti-inflammatory agents (gmcsf is one of ours, otilimab). We will see in due course how this pans out. In the meantime, ICNARC have reported a very impressive improvement in survival since Sept 1.
[tl:dr] one negative survival trial does not mean effective therapies aren’t coming, and patients are already managed better than they were and more surviving.
https://www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
Figure 13
Boris still AWOL again?
He’ll have to think long and hard about picking a fight with Andy - a man with a hundred times his political ability who, in the space of a day, seems to have established himself as the voice of a region. A really, really angry and pissed off region that has had more than enough of this governments shit!
Andy’s tone perfectly reflected the mood of most people up here after only 3 weeks not under lockdown since March, and even harsher restrictions now being dictated from London.
MP’s like Graham Brady aren’t stupid. They have enough political noise to read the room well enough, even if Boris is incapable of doing so.
His response, when Dom tells him it, if misjudged, could quite easily raise the temperature in the North West from angry to incandescent
One of Dons cronies had started this morning with the statement “we can either do this with you or to you”
That’s what passes as ‘consultation’ with this shower. How to win friends and influence people? The sheer arrogance of it!
I don't know if I've posted this before....but this Family Guy clip perfectly sums up Britains direction at the moment...
I don’t know if I’ve posted this before….but this Family Guy clip perfectly sums up
BritainsEngland's direction at the moment…
FTFY
The Magic Boris Money Tree, that dwarfs the Corbyn variant, knows no end...
If you're a mate of Boris, Dom, or the Tory Party.
most people up here
Be careful Binners, don’t promote a North / South divide. This is a political doing and not of the people. Us Southerners although not yet as affected - and speaking for myself - are also getting pretty angry.
You should be angry
You’re next
I genuinely think that Boris and Cummings and co don’t give a shit about anyone other than themselves and their mates, who’s pockets they’re busy lining.
We’re just an easy target up here, and we’re used to it. Some idiots up here thought it might be different. Most of us didn’t
Resilience and stoicism are Northern traits.
You guys down south are going to have develop this as you're next
☹️
London is an exception in a good way. Name another European capital city that isn't amongst the worst affected areas in the country. Is London next or are Londoners better behaved with a higher level of immunity from the first wave? I hope it's the latter. A UK Strasbourg.
You’re next
You know I’m not arguing against this right? Go easy on me, my wife’s already redundant, and this week our company was sold off for the second time this year, and I had my HR call today. I’m one of the lucky ones, but nevertheless feeling the weight of the stress and am pretty emotionally tired.
I likely need a break from this thread for a bit, my head is spinning with worry tbh. Sorry to sound narcissistic, I know many are in a far worse situation 🙁
London is an exception in a good way. Name another European capital city that isn’t amongst the worst affected areas in the country. Is London next or are Londoners better behaved with a higher level of immunity from the first wave? I hope it’s the latter. A UK Strasbourg.
London is a ghost town
Im commuting in 4 days a week for 2 months now and every cycle ride is still a pleasant surprise
And I get a seat in & out on the train every single day!!!!!
I wasn’t having a pop @kryton57. Just stating a fact.
We’ve been the victims of both the government’s incompetence and it’s traditional casual disregard for us
You’ve been spared the worst of it, more through luck than judgement, but that won’t last.
Good luck with it
As you’ve no doubt already gathered there is genuine and justified anger up here.
I suspect that our real PM Cummings, through his shoddy, bumbling mouthpiece on earth, will double down and now make everything considerably worse tomorrow.
He loves conflict, thrives off it, and is essentially a psychopath, so laying waste to a regions economy, with all the misery that goes along with it, will be considered a ‘win’ in his book for anyone daring to question his authority.
MoreCashThanDash
Full MemberI absolutely support Burnham on this, but he needs to up his media game to overcome the way it comes across.
He made what I'm coming to think of as The Sturgeon Error- basically, you have something correct and true and important to say in a time of national crisis, and you think that being correct and true and important in a time of national crisis is enough to override the politics.
London is a ghost town
Suggests there's not really any real reason, other than it keeps a small number super wealthy, for a lot of people to work in London. Investment could easily be spread more widely through the UK. For me it's less a N-S thing more a at some point you have to accept bottlenecks are bottlenecks you cant just keep stuffing more in there.
but he needs to up his media game to overcome the way it comes across
Who wants media polish right now? The people of MCR will admire his hard work and defiant tone. At least that’s what I expect. I’ve lived in various areas of Manchester, and I expect many people will see him grafting and saying what needs saying, plainly and firmly.
Other treatments are still ongoing.
Thanks for delivering bad news in a way that helps us keep it in context.
He made what I’m coming to think of as The Sturgeon Error- basically, you have something correct and true and important to say in a time of national crisis, and you think that being correct and true and important in a time of national crisis is enough to override the politics.
It seems the vast majority of people In greater Manchester - in fact, the whole north of England - would agree with him.
He’s representing the interests of his constituents with a passion I’ve not seen from any politician in an eternity
How is that an error?
“we can either do this with you or to you”
Sounds like johnson's attitude to women; following his father and re-inforced by his Etonian education.
Arrogance, entitlement and ignorance personified.
douglas ross on QT - F me, what a windbag.
It seems the vast majority of people In greater Manchester – in fact, the whole north of England – would agree with him.
For now, and quite rightly. He has to be very careful though not to be aligned with the anti-lockdown herd immunity nutters. When the deaths start rising, as they inevitably will, there will be southern tories queueing up to blame those on Burnham, and heartless northerners who prioritise going down the pub over people's lives. Also to the uninformed and hard of thinking it might look like his defiance is in disagreement with Starrmers call for a circuit breaker. Labour could find themselves in a mess with this very easily.
kelvin
Full MemberWho wants media polish right now?
It makes it more likely to get a good result. I don't want media polish for his own sake but I want his arguments to be harder to misrepresent. Irony- the more logical and reasoned your argument is, the more you have to protect against misrepresentation and other shitty responses, because by making a better argument you're leaving them only those tools and basically making it inevitable that they'll go there, rather than trying a real counterargument and failing.
Same answer really for
binners
Full MemberHe’s representing the interests of his constituents with a passion I’ve not seen from any politician in an eternity
How is that an error?
It makes it more likely to get a good result.
Can you imagine if Corbyn had turned up to have a rant on a street corner wearing a cagoule, scruffy shirt and a pair of jeans? Don't get me wrong, I much prefer this version of Burnham to the Armani suit wearing one, but it does make me roll my eyes seeing some on here go on as if he's the new messiah.
A mayor and party leader have a completely different role. But let’s not go there… please… let’s keep this close to the topic.
Tuning in (my morning) to see what the UK government has been up to...... oh, I see.....
If ever there was a time for a vote of no-confidence, and a national unity government, it's now.
I mean, I don't want to see Bojo and his band of incompetents off-the-hook for the absolute chaos that they've created, both Brexit and Covid, but there comes a point, surely, when the chaos of a VoNC is preferable to the chaos of the status quo?
I think Andy Burnham is playing it exactly right, but he needs to hammer the point that he DOES want a lockdown - but only with economic support. Many Daily Mail types will just hear that that the Northerners are refusing to lock-down.
On the subject of track, trace, Test, Isolate, ours (Aus) actually IS world class, and is used very much in a "get tested, get back to normal" kind of way. Key differences seem to be that people don't need an appointment for a test, results are available within 24 hours, and if you do need to self isolate after a positive test (or are caring for somebody who does), you get paid $1,500 by the government if you don't have any sick leave.
What this means for most people is: get contacted by a contact tracer, told to go for a test, get test and stay at home for the rest of the day, and the next morning. Receive negative result, go about your business.
Can you imagine if Corbyn had turned up to have a rant on a street corner wearing a cagoule, scruffy shirt and a pair of jeans?
That he’d upped both his sartorial game and his philosophy, not to mention his oratory quite considerably?
For the love of god, let’s not drag yet another thread onto the subject of that useless old ****.
He was shit. He’s gone.
Just leave it....
This was a good thread for those concerned about covid and it's effects.
Useful posts, like Tired's, are getting lost in the political ranting between a couple of posters.
Why not have an Andy Burnham! thread, he's earned it.
Tired, almost 800 admissions yesterday, is this still fitting the model you posted a few weeks back. I need reassurance its not going to be worse than last time!!
We’ll be around 500 deaths per day in a month. Baked-in. Just saying.
And that number’s going to keep going up so long as the govt pisses around wasting time.
From what is happening on the continent, the second wave does look worse than the first.
Macron said France needs between 3000 and 5000 cases a day to manage. Above that there will be issues in hospitals.
Also in March, the epidemy was mainly Paris and North East where now it is everywhere.
People are joking that with no kissing and diner at 6pm because of 9pm curfew, Covid is a British disease.
willard
Full Member
From what is happening on the continent, the second wave does look worse than the first.
You can't compare cases, if that's what you are doing, as there is much more testing now - so we're finding a lot more cases that would have gone undetected last time around.
Better to compare hospital admissions and deaths.
If you look at France, deaths have been at around 100-150 for the past 4 weeks or so - whereas back in March they went from 100 deaths/day to 400 deaths/day in about 10 days.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/
The UK numbers are here:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare
We’ll be around 500 deaths per day in a month. Baked-in. Just saying.
Right now I'd take that.
70 last week
140 this
280 next
560 next
1000+ next
Tired, almost 800 admissions yesterday, is this still fitting the model you posted a few weeks back. I need reassurance its no
At that admissions level we are past linear relationships, deaths in a week‘a time will be
Deaths(+7d) = sqrt(sqrt(800)) x (800/20) = 212
Range is minus a third to plus a half so 133-300. As @thecaptain says, baked in with a doubling currently of 10 days. So 400/day in three to four weeks is perfectly reasonable. By then we should see some effects of intervention. We’ll see how much intervention presently.
I tested that relationship over all admissions and deaths data in England since Week 15 to Week 42. It’s pretty good and the 90% prediction interval is actually narrower than that I give. But safety first ;-). It can also be used on a calculator.
Deaths(+7d) = sqrt(sqrt(800)) x (800/20) = 212
I'm glad you worked that out for me!! Number is not nice though.
Hospital admissions ate not quite doubling in a week so it might not be as bad as I am thinking, but eitherway we look to be sleep walking into a crisis again.
Sorry if this is obvious and has already been answered - I lost interest and gave up on following covid news months ago, but it seems the deaths aren't rising as much as the number of cases this time round?
In March we were at circa 5k cases per day and this was quickly followed by 1k deaths with a few weeks lag.
Now we've been seeing cases rise since July and are at c.15k cases daily but only around 100 deaths. Even accounting for lag between cases and deaths it seems that deaths are much lower than expected if you extrapolate March's results.
Is there a reason for this? Possibilities i've conjured up include:
1. the virus has mutated to a less deadly form like most viruses tend to.
2. we are testing more people so have more confirmed cases now.
3. we know how to treat people better combined with vulnerable people now taking it more seriously and shielding properly.
4. young people have lost interest and are going out catching it without many direct health consequences.
5. i've seen rumblings on facebook about the tests having a ridiculously high false positive rate but this could just be conspiracy nutters doing what they do.
2.
In March we were at circa 5k cases per day
are at c.15k cases daily
We were only testing people who needed hospital care (gov closed down community testing to focus [ration] testing capacity on healthcare settings). The numbers are not comparable.