Graham,
Explain to me how what I have said in any way differs from what TiRed has just said.
You Can't because were saying the same thing, you're only pretending to understand what he's saying.
You're not even wrong as they say.
If I don't understand him maybe I will just talk to him tomorrow online.
however as it stands I do understand and yet again you are changing your reading of what people are saying to fit your own views.
If people aren’t getting you, maybe look at what you write rather than blaming them?
crikey - are they possibly related to hipster?
I'm not sure Frankster, I'm not sure...
😉
Not a regular poster on here though pop in from time to time, so don't know of any of the posters formerly ending in er.
Some of you seem to confuse this thread with a 'what tyres for' thread when it's actually a 'will I die?' thread. I've had a few stabs at trying to persuade others on here as to the virtues of wearing a mask and pushed back against those discouraging the idea or trying to disprove it with science. That's all.
You'll all be wearing masks in 2 weeks anyhow.
I fancy a hamster mask 🎭
thanks crikester
Not a regular poster on here though pop in from time to time, so don’t know of any of the posters formerly ending in er.
Chinny reckon.
inky - it's a serious subject and none (?) of us are immune to the virus but let's retain a sense of humour unless....you're an american in which case humour doesn't apply.
You may have changed your tone and intent over the course of a page, but initially you came on here to rant and swear about a BBC presenter and then tried to justify what you want, then wonder why people are calling you a troll.
On a macro (non individual) scale a mask may reduce transmission on a population level.
On an individual level of will wearing a mask protect me directly from catchingthe wiring, then the answer remains not really, however it is more likely to prevent you passing it on which is exactly what the BBC presenter was saying.
I'll happily wear a mask when there's sufficient available for everyone, starting with front line carers and coming on down to me as a happy shopper. I doubt that will be in two weeks time.
Until then, me wearing one takes it away from someone at much greater risk than me.
Can we get Giant Microbes to make a 'Coronavirus' mask mask
I have a possibly unpleasant question about deaths in care homes.
The numbers look terrible but we don't seem to be seeing relatives in the media blaming government for failings like we do non care home deaths. Just seen an interview with a relatively calm and collected widower who has just lost his wife in a home.
As these people are dying in the care homes and not being moved to hospital for treatment, is it likely that most of these care home deaths are people with existing conditions and have DNR instructions in place?
none (?) of us are immune to the virus
Pick me! Pick me! Maybe 🙁 . I had another relapse of a different virus over the weekend that laid me flat - most likely that nasty EBV that laid me out half of last year. We've stockpiled TWO, count them, masks from Ocado, should we need to see the FIL when he is discharged from hospital.
Frank,
I come on here occasionally for the entertainment (though I'm deadly serious about the mask thing) I like to push things a bit so expect some adverse and some humorous responses.
I'm beginning to recognise a few names though, those that always bite, those that moan about others talking nonsense whilst themselves saying nothing, those that just want to distract and deflect at any opportunity. Those that just want to be combative (sometimes me that.). It's all good, if a little surprising when a simple comment about the BBC fills another thread page with collective nonsense.
You all should have just walked away and left me to it, 'cos how you gonna feel about what inkster said in a couple of weeks time when you're all wearing masks! ........'damn' that fool inkster saying we should all be protecting ourselves by wearing masks'
TiRed, you have already been picked - as the voice of common sense and fact on this thread.
EBV? That's not good.
Get well soon; we need your informed, factual, unemotional comment.
The care homes one is a horrible situation, without seeing any data you would have to assume that a number have existing conditions, but with that you would believe that the majority would have had a reasonable number of good years left, I think someone earlier in the thread had a difficult conversation about end of life care in a home.
It's awful and sadly they are the most vulnerable
Oh Grahamt1980,
I can't even disagree with you I came on here ranting about the BBC news pushing back against the wearing of face masks. I continued to rant about the BBC and I'll end ranting about the BBC.
Let's rejoin this conversation in 2 weeks time when you're wearing a face mask (though you don't have to wear one when you're typing on here, unless you're on the train or something)
inkster, you know that's not how it works.
Carry on posting - it adds to the rich mix of opinions.
FWIW, I have serious concerns about every aspect of covid-19; how it developed, how UK gov failed to respond appropriately; lack of clarity and honesty from gov & PHE, media coverage, testing, disaster planning, PPE availability.
My background is strategic procurement so I have a very keen interest in PPE supply, disaster planning and implementation.
The gov & PHE have got this very wrong; I have yet to see, hear or read any contribution from NHS procurement about how the strategic stockpile was defined, tier 1 supply partners, supply chain resilience, stock management, supply chain mapping - even something as simple as stock rotation
Please don't take my comments as lack of interest or concern.
More cash,
Good for you and I mean that. I'm like you, not wearing a surgical mask or trying to obtain one at the moment as I recognise the NHS and health workers need them first.
Don't let it stop you using a scarf, a bandana, a non surgical mask, cut up t shirt or a more fashion oriented item like some of those being advertised on here at the moment.
Edit - just deleted that, no point even trying
I just am hoping that my colleagues manage to develop a vaccine or a palliative effective drug before too long
Frank.
Not at all, you're a bit elbows out like me but I know you're not taking things lightly and I don't doubt anything you say with regards procurement and preparedness.
At the end of the day neither the government, opposition or civil service comes out smelling of roses after this when it comes to planning (bad metaphor, I know)
I'm sick of experts though not anti expert. If you're a politician or an expert and you weren't saying it end of feb at the latest why should I listen to you now?
I'm no expert but back in Feb I asked myself one question, If it's gone down this way in China why would it be different here? And I didn't have an answer. So I've only followed voices who were flagging up the dangers before I was. Not saying there weren't others but Rory Stewart is the only politician I saw, along with a writer or two.
I presume Rydster is busy sorting our your sock drawer at the mo...
Grahamt1980,
You don't give up do you, By your own admission, even when there's no point in trying you have to keep on trying!
Crikey Crikey.
I’ll happily wear a mask when there’s sufficient available for everyone, starting with front line carers and coming on down to me as a happy shopper. I doubt that will be in two weeks time.
Until then, me wearing one takes it away from someone at much greater risk than me.
I think we need to be careful in what constitutes a shortage of PPE. Inept govt' and inflexible purchasing procedures seem to be the root cause of a lot of issues. I have suppliers from overseas sending them to me for free (masks). I have plenty of emails from companies I trust offering to sell me them at not unreasonable prices. Secondly the style of mask the NHS wants are different to what the public needs. A simple 1 line law banning the sale of those masks to anyone outside a restricted number of sectors would deal with that issue pretty easily.
Secondly the style of mask the NHS wants are different to what the public needs.
We're using 2 kinds of masks - FFP3 for aerosol generating procedures and a standard surgical mask for non -aerosol/ general ward use. Both in short supply; I imagine the public will wearing the surgical type mask
Both in short supply
The surgical mask seems to be only in short supply inside the NHS if my inbox is to be believed, and given hundreds of thousands if not millions of those are used every day in normal circumstances I would expect, then scaling up even for current demand should be possible/done by now.
My major concern with the masks is that will it induce a sense of false security with people. I.e. I'm wearing a mask so can't catch it, so will start disregarding social distancing etc.
That has to be far more dangerous than the potential saving by wearing masks.
I’m sick of experts though not anti expert. If you’re a politician or an expert and you weren’t saying it end of feb at the latest why should I listen to you now?
That comes across a bit like I saw a cyclist jump a red light therefore they all do. Don't throw the baby out with the bath water, there are many 'experts' on both sides and just because they don't agree with you doesn't mean they are wrong or something to be 'sick of'. Informed debate is good, dogmatic positions less so. I tend to agree that we have been slow to respond to evidence of other countries but equally as new info comes to light it's OK to change a position - so what someone did or didn't say in Feb does not mean they aren't to be heard now.
That has to be far more dangerous than the potential saving by wearing masks
Has is a strong word try maybe? Or do you have proof?
I've not yet seen anyone say that wearing a mask is more effective than proper social distancing, hand washing and not touching your face. Have you?
depends on your position on whether a bit of tissue paper / a couple of layers of T-shirt are an effective barrier.
From another place but discussing the same......why should I trust a piece of fabric to stop virus particles when I know two layers can't stop my fart smells?
Anyway, I'd like to drag this back to numbers - the ONS excess death figures that @TiRed quoted on the last page of over 31,000 to week 16. That's a year to date total?
And if so, what has it done to your prediction of 40,000 total excess deaths for the whole year?
Apologies if I've missed the nuances in the numbers and predictions.
I’ve not yet seen anyone say that wearing a mask is more effective than proper social distancing, hand washing and not touching your face. Have you?
It's risk compensation that's the problem. Folk think they are safer with a mask so avoid doing those other things.
And 10,000...
a-a social distancing is the almost universally agreed method of reducing transmission, so if facemasks (which have a limited effect) reduce that it has to increase the risk. If facemasks do not reduce the level of social distancing then great go with both, I was just voicing my fears that it might result in a similar effect seen when people wear a ton of armour on a bike and increase risky behaviour.
Yes a strong phrase but I think justified
Yes a strong phrase but I think justified
By what evidence, I struggle to understand how anyone with reasonable scientific training would use such words.
I was just voicing my fears that it might result in a similar effect seen when people wear a ton of armour on a bike and increase risky behaviour.
Do you wear a helmet?
There is some evidence that helmet wearing results in risk compensation borh by the wearer and by other road users. However, let's please not make this a helmet debate. It is seen across all types of PPE.
Yes I wear a helmet and when doing dh I wear full armour and yes it likely means I will do stuff that I ordinarily wouldn't.
hence feeling better protected increases risky behaviour.
If wearing a face mask doesn't impact social distancing then by all means go for it, I'm just basing my views on seeing people in shops still not paying attention to spacing even when not wearing a mask so it feels that if you give them a feeling of false safety what is more likely to happen? They will keep distancing or they will think they are fine and reduce distancing?
It isn't an either or, I am just raising my concerns not stating we shouldn't do anything about facemasks, simply saying they are not the whole solution just a small part of it.
That’s a year to date total?
Correct. Remember that total excess deaths, which we will know with certainty, can only be known at the end. COVID and hospital deaths we measure now with uncertainty. Combining the two is fraught of course, but I have tried. I said 40K would be a good outcome. I think it's also very unlikely now.
The only nuance is trying to predict the downward area under the epidemic curve. The half-life is 11 days, so the cumulative AUC is half-life x last incidence/log(2). That extrapolation from about mid April lends to 12-16k deaths, add that to the cumulative excess and it's ballpark 50k.
I'll turn it around - I would be very surprised if excess deaths for 2020 exceeded 100,000 over historic control. Surprised if they were over 75,000, but not at all surprised at 50,000. sub 40K looks unlikely.
BTW Those excess deaths include all causes, so delays in cancer diagnosis, domestic violence, suicides... but mostly COVID19.
Thanks
I’ve not yet seen anyone say that wearing a mask is more effective than proper social distancing, hand washing and not touching your face. Have you?
No but it does make it harder to touch your face. Maybe another solution is one of those bucket things they put on dogs to stop them licking wounds etc.
