Thanks. Agree with Andyxm too.
Damn.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52441428
Battery hogging, centralised data, super snoopy… this isn’t going to be widely enough adopted.
Well now I'm blushing. Communication of science is a passion of mine. If you can't explain complex things clearly, how well do you really understand them? Doing the experiments or hard sums is not enough. It is every scientist's duty to communicate their work fully.
When people understand (and I include journalists here too) things with some clarity, you can see how we got to where we are, how decisions largely made themselves, and how when faced with limited information, sometimes mathematics can help (a bit). You can also see the areas where we have really failed. For COVID19, for me that area is testing. The govt have got most things right. Perhaps a week earlier lockdown (hardest political choice), perhaps a bit more PPE stockpiling (except we would have stockpiled for influenza that doesn't need full PPE coverage). And Ocado could have a better online system for those most in need 😉 . Even the weather's been good to us.
Experts from GCHQ's National Cyber Security Centre have aided the effort.
Tin foil hat time here - see they've used their tech on how to control your phone remotely to remove it from always on the home screen!!!! Maybe 😉
I know Christophe at Oxford, but I have to say, that this has all the makings of PHE testing v2.0 - I'd go Apple and Google, because I think the two of them, together, probably have a little knowhow in the phone area.
Someone else has written a good Twitter thread to save me typing:
https://twitter.com/robtregaskes/status/1254870654773530626?s=21
Someone else has written a good Twitter thread to save me typing:
I don't know if this decision making is political, or if they are naive, incompetent or staggeringly arrogant, but it's very depressing. If they continue down this path exposure tracking is highly unlikely to even work, never mind get broad adoption in the UK. 🤦♂️
— Rob Tregaskes 📦 (@robtregaskes) April 27, 2020
I think it will be fine. People will simply start using the Apple/Google one instead. And the Gov will be forced to ditch theirs. It happens all the time in other systems, I see no reason why that can't happen here.
I think it will be fine. People will simply start using the Apple/Google one instead. And the Gov will be forced to ditch theirs. It happens all the time in other systems, I see no reason why that can’t happen here.
Yep but it does make our lot look a bunch of numpties not using The official supported/stable apis.
Finicky old things mobile apps 🙂
Just for clarity Apple and Google are just providing the framework - an in-country app will still need to run on this framework
Warning: 6th form Che T-shirt wearing Grauniad conspiracy theory LOLS ahead.
But you need to look at who NHSX has awarded contracts to. Palantir (remember them?) and Faculty (run by Marc Warner, you know, the brother of Ben who sits on SAGE with Dom).
So regardless of how good these companies may be at data analysis and forming our response to the crisis, it's probably good to think about where your data will be going and what it will be used for.
https://bylinetimes.com/2020/04/22/palantir-coronavirus-contract-did-not-go-to-competitive-tender/
People will simply start using the Apple/Google one instead
^+1
Also, Government IT projects have a long and proud history of being delivered late, poorly functioning, and over budget. Their app will probably conclude my headphones are at risk of contracting covid in 2023.
Anyway, doubtless some Tory donor or mate will make a nice little earner out of it, while the IT industry makes something that works in no time flat.
I would like the app to help understand the circumstances of when the virus is being transmitted to reduce the lock down controls. Does anybody know whether the UK version will help with that ? Does anybody know whether the apple/google version will help with that ?
E.G
Record location - e.g. outside vs inside vs public transport vs etc rates of transmission
Record time in contact with the other person
Record distance from the other person
The software could give useful insights, but I guess this will not be possible due to privacy concerns and battery life ?
I would sign up to giving extra data if it helped reduce lock down controls. I would like the option to record more data that was then centralized when the battery was being recharged. I do not expect to be going out for long enough to have concerns about battery life. The benefits outweigh the privacy concerns for me.
Very interesting article on how covid is affecting other areas of the Health system
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52446841
NeilOx - I agree. There will always be 10% of anti government nut jobs, but they will refuse any app.
From the API documentation, again, an app from 'The relevant public health authority' need to be installed, and how that behaves is up to the developers of said app:
Both phases of the solution harness the power of Bluetooth technology to aid in exposure
notification. Once enabled, users’ devices will regularly send out a beacon via Bluetooth that
includes a privacy-preserving identifier — basically, a string of random numbers that aren’t tied
to a user's identity and change every 10-20 minutes for additional protection. Other phones will
be listening for these beacons and broadcasting theirs as well. When each phone receives
another beacon, it will record and securely store that beacon on the device.
At least once per day, the system will download a list of beacons that have been verified as
belonging to people confirmed as positive for COVID-19 from the relevant public health
authority. Each device will check the list of beacons it has recorded against the list downloaded
from the server. If there is a match between the beacons stored on the device and the positive
diagnosis list, the user may be notified and advised on steps to take next.
https://www.apple.com/covid19/contacttracing
If you can’t explain complex things clearly, how well do you really understand them? Doing the experiments or hard sums is not enough. It is every scientist’s duty to communicate their work fully.
Fully agree with that. Back when I was in uni I was struggling to understand how to improve correlation between the early CFD programmes and results from windtunnels/real life measurements. Thankfully a workshop had been set up in Silverstone where the up-and-coming engineers could talk to prospective employers in the motorsport industry and aviation, I went along to it to see what I could learn. Was having a very fruitless day until I got talking to a group of guys from Jordan GP who, after about 5 minutes, had broken it down to basics for me in simple terms that were easy to follow. This then meant I could apply the complex stuff on top of that and build it up from there. From then on I had no issues understanding errors in the correlations I was case studying. They even offered me a work placement with them but the team was sold before I could get the offer finalised.
I would sign up to giving extra data if it helped reduce lock down controls.
I wouldn't want to give extra data permanently but seeing as my movement patterns are completely abnormal then I would be happy being tracked for the period of the restrictions. At the end of the day I can always delete the app when the time comes but if me giving away a bit of data that's useless to anyone but the pandemic response teams and analysists like TiRed and it helps keep it all under control then that's fine by me.
I'll also say I'm not entirely sure how much use a Bluetooth contact tracing app is going to be. If I turn on Bluetooth now, I can see 3 devices in range. Let's say one of these is a neighbour's phone, and they are sick in bed in the house next door with Covid-19, am I exposed? Now turn on Bluetooth on a bus, in your car, in an office block. So there is a trade off for handing over your data.
It's certainly a tool for the toolbox, but it's not going to replace a proper test and trace initiative.
But our government has a boner for techbro nonsense, so this app will probably solve the Irish border and cure Covid at once. On the blockchain.
The European Commission has issued some very sensible guidance on apps, so you know, that will be ignored.
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:52020XC0417(08)&from=EN
seems to me the only real way to begin to properly answer the questions still remaining about how infection actually occurs
I have a hypothetical question: what would it mean for our strategy if we could effectively protect the most vulnerable people - those with known underlying health conditions - from exposure to the virus?
Despite the tendency of the media to focus on young, healthy victims of Covid-19, it still seems to be the case that the overwhelming majority of deaths caused by the virus, are of people with known underlying health conditions. On top of that, it's not clear that those without known conditions, may have had them anyway. Bear in mind that our 'healthy' PM is five foot nine and weighs, apparently, something close to 16 stone.
For example, clipped from a recent Guardian news story:
The 711 people who were included in the government’s daily update of fatalities on Saturday were aged between 34 and 100 years old. Eighty-seven of the 711 patients had no known underlying health condition.
If you can protect the majority of those people - I know this would be difficult in practice - would that leave you with an infection that, in the remainder of the population, would be more on a par with serious flu and buy you time to find a vaccine / more effective treatment for serious cases?
I guess what I'm asking is what would effectively happen in a population without those more vulnerable people? I am a dog of simple wiring, so please don't shout at me 🙂
I think we are seeing how hard it really is to shield the vulnerable, especially in the care home setting. One of the other problems is a lot if the “Vulnerable” don’t want to be told what they can/can’t do. Even if they aren’t bothered by their own risk,its the knock on effect they have of taking up a large amount of our NHS capacity that puts others at risk.
As a basic premise, I think what you are suggesting is what we are probably going to be doing, as is Sweden.
I guess what I’m asking is what would effectively happen in a population without those more vulnerable people? I am a dog of simple wiring, so please don’t shout at me
The problem is, even if you could round up all these people and plonk them all and the Isle of White or wherever, who would look after them?
The problem is, even if you could round up all these people and plonk them all and the Isle of White or wherever, who would look after them?
Yes, I realise that it would be an incredibly hard thing to achieve, but if the pay-off for a massive investment in safeguarding those people were a more functional economy and society overall, then in my BWD utopian thought process, it might make some sort of sense as a measure pending a successful vaccine. And yes I know, another can of worms.
Explaining to the population of the Isle of Wight could be tricky also.
As a basic premise, I think what you are suggesting is what we are probably going to be doing, as is Sweden.
Sort of. But Sweden seems to have, at the very least, got care homes badly wrong.
I've been shocked when i've been out cycling etc how many oldies are wandering round, i went to the village shop and there were 5-6 of them going there just for a sodding newspaper !!! I mean come on !!! work with us a little bit guys and girls... But over the course of a ride i think i saw 10-12 people and 8 of them at least were 65+
I understand the 'why' but someone needs to kinda enforce it no?
My parents (aged 80) do their daily walk round the village and use the village shop. They know the risks, but are pretty good with distancing and handwashing. That doesn't worry me too much - they would probably kill one another if confined to the house together.
Bit concerned that they don't need a big supermarket shop doing this week, they aren't daft enough to head off to Morrisons, I hope.
But you need to look at who NHSX has awarded contracts to. Palantir (remember them?) and Faculty (run by Marc Warner, you know, the brother of Ben who sits on SAGE with Dom).
This. Forget it.
I’ve been shocked when i’ve been out cycling etc how many oldies are wandering round,
I had some thoughts about this earlier...
The older you are, the fewer years you have left (a) to lose and (b) to enjoy. If you are 40 and think you have 30 years ahead of you then "losing" one stuck indoors isn't a big deal. Maybe your ticklist won't see any action this year but you can make it up. If you are 70, maybe you're thinking there's only a couple of years left. Would you want to waste one stuck indoors?
Yes, I realise that it would be an incredibly hard thing to achieve, but if the pay-off for a massive investment in safeguarding those people were a more functional economy and society overall, then in my BWD utopian thought process,
You would also need to isolate those caring for the older people and those living with those caring for the older people.....
Isle of White
“Wight”.
“Wight”.
No pudding for me!
Lol! I was going to leave it but my ODC was driving me nuts... 😉
Would you want to waste one stuck indoors?
I had suitably distant conversation with an ex-neighbour on Sunday. He's a very fit 83, and he really resented having one of the few years left to him taken away. He lives on his own, his wife having died a couple of years ago. He's recently met a new lady friend, but he's not been able to see her since lockdown.
I'm 'only' 60, but I feel the same to some degree - I don't have many years left to go riding at Welsh trail centres or in the Peak, but I've lost this one.
It's that old quantity of life vs. quality of life question, but complicated by the fact that your actions have consequences for others.
Live fast, die young, leave a good looking corpse.
I'm only joking of course.
Sadly, many people are selfish - of all ages.
Sadly, many people are selfish – of all ages.
Obviously. Was there a point to posting that now?
You would also need to isolate those caring for the older people and those living with those caring for the older people…..
Yes, clearly that would be an integral part of protecting those people and why it would be very difficult. Similarly where you have cultures where there are multi-generational households, protecting the more vulnerable would be a real problem.
As far as old people go. We seem overly fixated on age as a risk factor rather than age combined with underlying conditions. There are proper fit, trim older folk out there who may - or may not - be relatively safe, but are treated as vulnerable due to age alone.
Some of it, I suspect, is the media fixation on stories about younger, 'fit and healthy' victims many of whom don't look particularly fit and healthy at all. I don't mean that in a snide way, but I do wonder if it skews people's risk assessment.
OWG - no I wasn’t arguing with anybody, just a comment following on from earlier posts referencing how decisions are complicated by having implications on others. Some care about this, some don’t.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/28/coronavirus-pulse-oximeter-healthcare
I've got one on order but worth noting it's only one of a range of symptoms and can't be relied on alone.
Why UK's death toll could soon be the worst in Europe
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/28/uks-death-toll-will-soon-worst-europe-charts/
At this point in the pandemic, some 42 days since the tenth death, the five-day average for deaths in the UK stands at 598, according to the latest data from Johns Hopkins University. This is far higher than Italy (559), France (509) and Spain (423).
no I wasn’t arguing with anybody, just a comment following on from earlier posts referencing how decisions are complicated by having implications on others
Ok, I won't fight you.
If it was only going to affect us, I suspect we'd continue making the most of the time left to us and take our chances. But it doesn't just affect us so both me and my ex-neighbour, while regretting our loss, are complying with the restrictions. But it was very clear this past weekend that a large number of people have had enough of the lockdown and are not thinking of the wider consequences. I think that's partly stupidity, partly selfishness, and partly that the government have been very bad at being open, transparent and honest about the reality of our situation.
Live fast, die young, leave a good looking corpse.
I’m only joking of course.
I'm going ride out of here on a big white horse
In some respects the media focusing on the young and fit dying has probably helped the lock down but it's also made some people incredibly scared.
Many older people don't like to think of themselves as vulnerable or old. My mother in law and both my parents,all in their late 70s certainly don't. In fact my MIL is doing the shopping for her 91 year old SIL, she considers herself to be looking after the older generation not part of it.
Being very numbers rather people orientated the actual number of deaths whilst shocking high is not significant in general terms. We'll probably see a below normal death rate when the virus subsides, if it had been hitting all age groups evenly we would get a spike for the whole year.
Going forward I think all we can do is try to protect care homes and other places with concentrations of vulnerable people, should be doing this already but it doesn't seem to be working well. Those in vulnerable categories who live on their own need to make their own decisions (obviously supported by enhanced social care if possible regarding shopping etc.), they can't be selectively targeted for isolation.
Unfortunately one of least likely areas of our welfare state to be able to cope with new challenges is the social care sector.
Italy (559), France (509) and Spain (423).
All had proper lock downs, not wishy washy guidance about being able to go to work if you couldn't work from home and contradictory instructions on exercise.
From yesterday this needs amending
Post peak, I believe we are now halving the number of cases every 12 days.
with an In Hospital for completeness. Given the care home and other death data released today which shows 52% of last weeks excess deaths were outside the NHS (deaths above the normal level at this time of year).
I'll not be installing any government private API driven app on my smartphone as:
a) It will be rushed and buggy
b) Control of my data is central and our data commissioner is a toothless regulator. Mission creep is a given see also RIPA.
the UK stands at 598
Well, many people will be looking at our current success.
Well, many people will be looking at our current success.
LOL
R above 1 again in Germany, as per the Guardian, a week after easing lockdown. Don't think the easing could actually have a measurable impact yet? Anyhow, not good news for easing lockdown. I predict the numpties will need more policing soon, leading to social unrest.
