Tired,
Is there anything different about the R1b haplogroup ?
I have no idea. But... It is tempting based on disease severity to invoke the Y chromosome for pathogenesis, since males appear disproportionately affected by severity. But there must be caution too. From my understanding, the Y chromosome haplotypes are basically derived from Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms, but these need not be in the genetic reading frame (could be junk DNA that is still conserved?). Happy to be corrected on this. So any new SNP-derived haploype does not mean that the group have a different PHENOTYPE, which means that might not be an explanation for disease pathogenicity differences.
Now if an SNP gave gain/loss of function or over/under expression, such as ACE2 on the surface of alveoli epithelial cells, then this might be interesting. But I am not a geneticist or pretend to be one on the internet. Differences in phenotype (the end result of genetics) would be worth looking at, but there is possibly huge selection bias: males - Y - differences in Y. Needs a control set for comparison.
[TL:DR] We are made up of lots of genes. Males seem badly hit compared to females, so maybe it's a male gene causing it. Male genes are studied to show where we've come from (as they are passed from father to son unchanged), and you can map them across the world from Africa. Tiny differences from male-to-male might show as differences in disease from area-to-area. Maybe.
The increased death rate is not necessarily Covid-19 though, hence the slight panic over the last 72 hours telling people to still go to A&E if they’re seriously ill (heart attack / stroke / sepsis etc.
Correlation is not causation.
Not certain of interest to anyone but last year the weekly average death rate was about 9875 (average over 4 weeks in April 2019). Last week we had 18516 deaths (up from 16387 the week before). So approx 8500 people a week extra dying. This would take into account people dying in care homes not currently counted in Gov figures.
I accept it’s a rather basic calculation.
They won't all be CV19 deaths though - the (maybe even more) worrying thing is how many are treatable conditions where people either 'didn't want to bother' the emergency services or were too scared to seek help because of the fear that hospital will mean getting CV19. And how many are due to extra stress, depression, drinking, etc. that will become more prevalent as a result of the economic depression to come.
telling people to still go to A&E if they’re seriously ill (heart attack / stroke / sepsis etc.
My FIL was taken in yesterday with a TIA 🙁 - He's been avoiding contact with all except home care and my MIL. The stroke ward is full.
TiRed, in that Paris paper you linked, it says
the increase of genome units in raw wastewaters accurately followed the increase in the number of fatal cases
Shouldn't that be the other way round - the number of fatal cases followed the increase in viral material in wastewater? I'd expect that to follow both in terms of cause and effect, and timescale, with a delay between amount of infection (as indicated by levels in wastewater) and corresponding deaths.
Edit - sorry to read about your FIL. My father suffered a stroke and one thing we learned is that UK practice for treating strokes is way behind (eg) Germany and Japan in use of hyperbaric oxygen treatment. He only received it when it was too late, but it did have a significant benefit.
Blimey TiRed, your family are going through it at the moment.
Hope he's ok
Sorry to hear that TiRed hopefully he makes a good recovery.
All the best TiRed
Thanks all.
Shouldn’t that be the other way round – the number of fatal cases followed the increase in viral material in wastewater?
I suspect that "followed" is being used as tracked or correlated with rather than was behind. They are not native English speakers, remember.
The bodies have to go somewhere right?
Did Whitty say that social distancing could go on for a year? I'm guessing a staged relaxation over time - but I'd also guess social stuff will be last so pubs, restaurants, sports events, gigs, gyms
It's going to be a really long haul
I'm all for science but the lockdown will need to be lifted in a lot less than a year if you want to keep firms afloat, and therefore society afloat.
I'd give it 3 to 4 weeks and then the gov. will be under enormous pressure to lift this.
I’m all for science but...
The science is being used in an attempt to reduce deaths, surely this is what you have an issue with, not ‘science’.
I'm also very pro the science (who guessed 😉 ), but a staged removal will be the only exit strategy. We won't have a vaccine, we most likely won't have treatments. We will have some testing and, one imagines, some hair-trigger reactions and the occasional brief flare of cases. But exit is the only strategy. Pausing the economy was reasonable, perhaps for a quarter, but crashing it is not.
BTW re my FIL, sadly it is not his first stroke. We know the score and are hoping for the (relative) best. Thank you for your concerns. It's hard not being allowed to visit this time. But he is in the best place.
TiRed once this is all over I would hope you could give a Lecture/Presentation on all your methodology & calculations as I for one would love to hear you present this 🙂
I think staged relaxation, loads of testing, contact tracing including contact tracing app.
But I worry that a lot of businesses will be gone for good - especially those that require social interaction or where social distancing is really hard.
It's an incredibly hard balance for a Govt - I imagine they are watching closely the actions of those European countries who have been on similar trajectory but a few weeks ahead as well as those such as Germany and South Korea who had more effective strategies. Or even Sweden with a more lax approach
Existing businesses may be lost in the short term, but the skills and demand will still be there in the medium to long term when we come out the other side.
How the government/banks want to square that circle is a big issue. There's ships, gyms, restaurants etc ready to go in 12 months time, the issue is how do you keep the staff out of abject poverty in that period.
In more positive news, our village chippy is back open for online order this weekend, and all Friday night slots went in 2 hours of it going live!
"Two pet cats in New York state have tested positive for the coronavirus, marking the first confirmed cases in companion animals in the US, federal officials said Wednesday." Guardian
That adds a horribly new dimension
TiRed, best wishes to your FIL.
If they are going to track this, the likes of hash up of the like of the Evergreen apps COVID-19 question are deplorable.
Phone notifies me that my E-Medical app -Evergreen - has a COVID-19 survey for tracking. I launch it, and the first question is “Are you social distancing” with the options “Yes” “No” and “Help”.
Press any button and.... nothing, yet it’s page 1 of 6. I mean seriously, any basic testing would have revealed you cannot move beyond the first page, what a **** up.
Universal basic income my be one way forward, there are a lot of people falling through the net under the present arrangements such as furloughs, if it drags on in to the winter things will only get harder with additional heating etc
Universal basic income my be one way forward,
I agree, I was in favour before all this, now it appears ‘essential’. It should be ‘generous’ too. An opportunity for people to restructure their lives with less emphasis on work.
Big changes coming across society?
Free broadband for all, much less commuting, more WFH?
Asking why we have so many children who depend on school for food & safety?
Valuing key/all worker jobs better & rewarding them better?
At least the exit strategy is being discussed & government honest about what future looks like,re social distancing etc.
But economy will take a pounding growth had stopped & borrowing risen before virus hit !
But economy will take a pounding growth had stopped & borrowing risen before virus hit !
Every country in the world is borrowing to get through this. Surely some creative accounting will fix it in the long run?
Big changes coming across society?
Unlikely. Whilst I agree with the sentiment, and would be happy and expect to be part of the funding via increased taxation, I think you only have to look at New Year's Resolutions, or any resolution for that matter. Societal attitudes revert to norms as fast as they do for individuals.
If we value healthcare more and pay the extra 33% needed, I would view that as a win. I expect some changes to the command and control structure that has not served testing so well. But don't hold your breath.
Unlikely.
I remain optimistic, but without a change in government .....
I’m all for science but the lockdown will need to be lifted in a lot less than a year if you want to keep firms afloat, and therefore society afloat.
Only if you look at this problem within the narrow idealogical confines of the free market. It's perfectly possible to keep all firms (at least those not owned by tax avoiding billionaires) with state support. What you need is the state to underwite debts, suspend solvency laws (and evictions and foreclosures) and bring in a temporary UBI until it's all over. That way firms can continue trading where necessary or required, those that can't can be mothballed until it's all over, debts across the economy can be serviced, and the employees protected from poverty. Of course our political masters have proven that they would rather stick to their capitalist dogma than do what's necessary so they'll probably opt for more death.
Only if you look at this problem within the narrow idealogical confines of the free market.
Absolutely this. Money isn't real, it's entirely made up, and it's possible to manage it in a more creative fashion than the neo-liberal ideologues would have you believe.
If anyone wants some data from somewhere else, The swiss, unsurprisingly, keep rather good records.
https://covid-19-schweiz.bagapps.ch/de-1.html
Laborbestätigte Fälle = lab confirmed cases
Todesfälle = deaths
They are loosening restrictions here on Monday for some businesses, individual sports (tennis, golf etc), and schools go back on 11th May as well as shops opening back up. They are also very clear to point out that restrictions and social distancing will be in place for some time. Masks are not recommended in CH for general population, deemed infective (I think they might be doing this just to be contrary to the Germans).
Interestingly, they state: "Discussions with infectious disease specialists have shown that children are rarely infected and rarely transmit the disease; therefore, children can go back to school". Hoo-bloody-ray!
Interestingly, they state: “Discussions with infectious disease specialists have shown that children are rarely infected and rarely transmit the disease; therefore, children can go back to school”. Hoo-bloody-ray!
That message seems to be supported from multiple sources. Will be good to get my two little tykes back to school.
Lancet page for the above
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(20)30089-X/fulltext
Surely some creative accounting will fix it in the long run?
I asked this question about a month ago in this very thread. Whats stopping some kind of 'reset', ie everyone decides to go back to the point they were at 1st Jan 2020.
Interestingly, they state: “Discussions with infectious disease specialists have shown that children are rarely infected and rarely transmit the disease; therefore, children can go back to school”.
Have they shown the workings out?
Schools contain more than just children.
Interestingly, they state: “Discussions with infectious disease specialists have shown that children are rarely infected and rarely transmit the disease; therefore, children can go back to school”. Hoo-bloody-ray!
this is what our own government advice said too
Interesting paper: https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75/v1
TLDR: The whole "they only had a year of life left only" / "they were at deaths door" thing is again shown to be bollocks. Average years of life remaining for covid victim was 13 years for a woman and 11 years for a man.
Trying not to sound provocative, but are there many cases of teachers being infected during lockdown? I appreciate that numbers in school and "viral load" are very low, but I'm not seeing tributes to teachers in the news like we do for NHS staff or bus drivers, or hearing it anecdotally from teacher friends who are working.
Genuinely not trying to wind you up AA, my wife is front line child protection, still dealing with families with no PPE, so I totally get your concerns.
Our own government adice has led to us being amongst the worst affected countries in the world. Opinions and models are worth shit if they contain flawed assumptions and or shit data!
Many of the assumptions regarding the influence of schools and children were based on influenza being a disease of the young and the old, with disproportionate morbidity in children (who have little or no immunity). It is still possible that children represent a large reservoir of TRANSMISSION (perhaps largely asymptomatic), but we are now confident that do not represent excess morbidity. That knowledge may change the debate regarding lifting restrictions.
How one deals with the severely asthmatic child, who lives with their elderly grandparent, is always going to be the challenge.
But it does appear that healthcare systems have greater capacity than originally thought, perhaps due to the absence of paediatric cases, as well as the huge reduction in transmission.
I don't model any of this btw, but am familiar with the models.
Whats stopping some kind of ‘reset’, ie everyone decides to go back to the point they were at 1st Jan 2020.
It doesn't need a reset or creative accounting. There are established mechanisms already for underwriting the economy and protecting businesses, which effectively boils down to printing money and distributing it, whilst legislating to protect businesses/jobs and prevent fraud. The main thing that doesn't exist is a universal system of protecting people's incomes, which is why many are calling for a UBI.
The state could force businesses accepting bailouts to keep people on, give the govt a share in the business and ban shareholder dividends (otherwise it would just be gamed). Of course the tories won't do that because their friends would lose a lot of money. They don't care about protecting jobs or incomes. They only care about protecting shareholder value.
Our own government adice has led to us being amongst the worst affected countries in the world
Ignoring Belgium (care home reporting difference) we are 4th worst affected. Yay! Go Boris.
I wonder how that table will look like in a few months time though.
As TiRed has pointed out, "by country" may not be the best way of looking at it; population density must make a huge difference to transmission rates.
It is still possible that children represent a large reservoir of TRANSMISSION
This is my thought, given the lack of data due to lack of testing of asymptomatic patients we dont have much to go on and a precautionary approach would seem the best. Just someones hunch that kids dont get it or pass it on so schools should open would seem the opposite of this.
Trying not to sound provocative, but are there many cases of teachers being infected during lockdown? I appreciate that numbers in school and “viral load” are very low
As you say, at the moment viral load is low (eg Mrs SWSD is working 2 days in, 6 days out) and any really vulnerable teachers won't be in contact with classes so the chances of a severe case probably aren't that high.
Having said that, since the beginning of March (when a lot of the middle class kids came back from their skiing holidays) over half the teachers at Mrs SWSDs school have displayed "the symptoms" and a few are still quite ill. Who knows if it was Covid-19 or not? If only there was some kind of test that you could do....
Trying not to sound provocative, but are there many cases of teachers being infected during lockdown?
So what we're doing at the moment does seem to be working.
Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon says "a return to normal as we knew it is not on the cards in the near future".
"What we will be seeking to do, is find a new normal. A way of living alongside this virus, but in a form that keeps it under control and stops it taking the toll that we know it can do." she says.
"Social distancing and limiting of contacts with others will be a fact of life for a long time to come, certainly until treatments and ultimately a vaccine offer different solutions.
"So that means possibly for the rest of this year, and maybe even beyond."
Some straightforward honesty there. Should help reset some folks expectations.
