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The Coronavirus Discussion Thread.

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Not sure which daily figures we should be watching most closely… but all are up today.

All will become clear in the daily briefing, I’m sure. They can also use that to explain to people in the NE what new laws apply to them tomorrow, why they are being put in place, and how they can avoid breaking them. That is literately the least they should be doing.


 
Posted : 29/09/2020 6:07 pm
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71 deaths today, thats not good is it, at least 2 more weeks of that going up.


 
Posted : 29/09/2020 7:39 pm
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I posted this on the Johnson thread but it sits well here as well.

From BBC

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54342688

Both he and a junior minister didn't know the rules. Not surprising as they are so bloody complicated.

Mr Johnson was asked to clarify the rules after a junior minister was unable to do so.

When asked if people in the North East could still meet people from other households outside, such as in a pub garden, Mr Johnson said people should follow local guidance and urged them to use their common sense.

He went on to talk about the separate rule of six.

"In the North East and other areas where extra tight measures have been brought in, you should follow the guidance of local authorities - but it's six in a home, six in hospitality but, as I understand it, not six outside," he said.

On Twitter, Mr Johnson later apologised and clarified that the new law meant those in the North East "cannot meet people from different households in social settings indoors, including in pubs, restaurants and your home".

"You should also avoid socialising with other households outside," he added.

And
Earlier, when asked on BBC Radio 4's Today programme if people in the affected areas could meet in pub gardens, Education Minister Gillian Keegan said: "I'm sorry I can't clarify that.

"I don't know the answer to that question but I'm sure they can find out the answer to that question."


 
Posted : 29/09/2020 7:43 pm
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paging our resident covid sage 😉 @Tired

3 weeks ago you thought

wed still be below 100 admissions a day accross UK

although its leveling off a bit at the moment in england alone were at >250 a day

https://twitter.com/john_actuary/status/1310983047316205568

this doesnt fill me with joy


 
Posted : 29/09/2020 8:05 pm
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although its leveling off a bit at the moment

In London. Take London hospital figures out, and we’re still rising at much the same rate.

[ waves from the North of England ]


 
Posted : 29/09/2020 8:11 pm
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71 deaths today, thats not good is it, at least 2 more weeks of that going up.

71 by date reported, 10 by date of death.

I guess that date-of-death number might go up a bit ?

wed still be below 100 admissions a day accross UK

We're never going to get rid of Covid19.


 
Posted : 29/09/2020 9:26 pm
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eskay
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Earlier, when asked on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme if people in the affected areas could meet in pub gardens, Education Minister Gillian Keegan said: “I’m sorry I can’t clarify that.

TBH I'm really pissed off that people are taking the piss/making political points off that. She's the education minister not in a health, culture or justice role, and she's not in the affected areas. It's not her job, and saying "I don't know" is the right thing to do.

I mean, education is obviously a ****ing disaster this year so she's not doing her actual job, we should criticise her for that, not for not knowing stuff that's not her brief.


 
Posted : 29/09/2020 9:55 pm
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You’re right.

If the prime minister doesn’t even know what the rules are, why should she?

She’s only a government minister, after all. She can’t be expected to know government policy on the most pressing issue of the day and one which massively impacts her brief. Honestly... people want the moon on a stick, don’t they?

And if she’s education minister then I suppose you’d ask her the same obvious question you’d ask her boss, towering intellectual colossus Gavin Williamson...

WHAT THE * HAVE YOU *ING CLOWNS ACTUALLY BEEN DOING SINCE MARCH?!!!


 
Posted : 29/09/2020 10:06 pm
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You won’t get support for another indefinite lockdown, people are fed up already so it’ll be broken and broken quickly.

You won’t get any support for anything that remotely resembles the kind of measures brought in in March, because:

• Dominic Cummings
• Government incompetence
• Dominic Cummings
• Test and Trace chaos and a ‘World Beating’ system that is totally unfit for purpose
• Dominic Cummings
• The disappearing ‘World Beating’ App
• Dominic Cummings
• Care Home body count
• shameless Government corruption, handing out multi-million PPE contracts to their mates
• More Government incompetence
• Dominic Cummings
• Dido Hardings rewards for failure
• Highest death rate in Europe
• Even more Government incompetence
• Dominic Cummings
• Yet more Government incompetence
• Matt Hancock
• Complete and total Government ineptitude
• Gavin Williamson’s exam fiasco
• Gavin Williamson’s school reopening fiasco
• Gavin Williamson’s university reopening fiasco

etc, etc…

Whilst I agree with the sentiment here, I think a big reason why you won't get compliance next time round is because we're constantly bombarded with news of how everyone else is flouting the rules. The vox pops on the news, pictures in the papers, phone ins on the radio are all about how there's youths hanging out in town centres, all sorts of people refusing to wear masks, "minorities" in each others houses etc'. All that bullsh*t. So why should everyone else bother? Guess that's the Dom effect palmed off onto the rest of the populous.


 
Posted : 29/09/2020 10:20 pm
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binners
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She’s only a government minister, after all. She can’t be expected to know government policy on the most pressing issue of the day and one which massively impacts her brief.

How much do you think government policy on pub beer gardens impacts on education? I'm pretty sure it's "not at all" rather than "massively".


 
Posted : 29/09/2020 10:37 pm
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You’re right.

I'm glad you agree that Northwind is right.


 
Posted : 29/09/2020 10:38 pm
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Guess that’s the Dom effect palmed off onto the rest of the populous.

We certainly weren’t being deluged with images of people flouting the rules at the point in time that Dom decided to go for his road trip, refused to apologise, then had every single cabinet member come out and publicly defend his actions

I just can’t understand what changed after that

It’s inexplicable


 
Posted : 29/09/2020 10:40 pm
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Has anyone plotted a chart of the correlation between right-wing xenophobic populism of a country's government vs excess deaths per 100,000 yet?

Because, frankly, we are in bad company on the politics front as well as the excess covid deaths.

Bolsonaro and Trump as our fellow travellers, eh?

What a ****ing nightmare.


 
Posted : 29/09/2020 10:43 pm
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Yes, they all knew the rules intimately when Cummings didn't break them.

I think part of the point as well is that the rules are so bloody complicated not even Johnson knows them alone other government employees, plus they should know them because people (not just the press) expect them to know some of the most vital rules of modern times


 
Posted : 29/09/2020 10:45 pm
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How much do you think government policy on pub beer gardens impacts on education

It’s not specifically about pub beer gardens though, is it?

If you’re a member of a government that has just imposed a policy that has absolutely enormous implications on the lives of millions of people, with no notice and no consultation, then as a minister of that government you should, at the bare minimum, be able to explain what that policy is.

The fact that both she and the prime minister couldn’t do so sends a message, loud and clear, of laziness, arrogance, complacency and rank incompetence

You’re not explaining new regulations on the labelling on the salt content of ready meals here, the impact of these policy changes has huge implications for entire regions.

The fact that they can’t even be arsed to learn the detail of their own policies, that they impose by diktat on millions of the ‘little people’ tells me everything I need to know about these ****s

From the top down they’re making it up as they go along and just winging it


 
Posted : 29/09/2020 10:47 pm
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binners
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It’s not specifically about pub beer gardens though, is it?

It was a question about pub beer gardens, so, yes?


 
Posted : 29/09/2020 11:16 pm
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They’re busy telling us that the rules are simple.

Well if they’re that simple then why can’t you, as a member of the government that just imposed them, explain them?

And seeing as she is a government minister and the new lockdown regulations just imposed are the biggest story of the day, then if you didn’t think you were going to be asked about it then you’re a dimwit

But then the chief dimwit didn’t bother to read his briefing notes either. As per usual

I just think that at the height of a global pandemic, with lives at stake, we should be expecting a higher level of competence than ‘winging it’ from government ministers.

Like I said: lazy, arrogant, complacent and incompetent.

If you think that’s acceptable, then good for you

I don’t


 
Posted : 29/09/2020 11:33 pm
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we’re constantly bombarded with news of how everyone else is flouting the rules.

Not just that, but a rule comes in, it doesnt work, theres no proof, someone elses country does it different. Then its clarified by an incompetent leader, who does a U turn on that and then cant remember which rules are currently in place.

So this is what we hear, does anyone think we should have any reason to believe in what happens next?

Knob head is hosting another television show tomorrow with the two scientists.  Not sure if its satire or comedy tbh but please tune and post your review here.


 
Posted : 29/09/2020 11:34 pm
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Nah… Binners didn’t mention Boris, Raab or Gove; or even Helen chuffing Whately (idiot savant extraordinaire but without the savant bit)

Heartily disagree, that list took some effort.

Let's get Binners elected to the HoC.


 
Posted : 29/09/2020 11:40 pm
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If you think that’s acceptable, then good for you

It’s not acceptable. But they seem to be successfully getting more and people to accept that members of the government now do the absolute minimum with a minimal level of competence, if any. Remembering the name of your department is just about all we’ll be expecting of these people within a year.


 
Posted : 29/09/2020 11:42 pm
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What do you guys think of this hypothesis? Basically that masks reduce transmission and also viral load possibly leading to less sever symptoms?

Nicked from @JollyGreenGiant in another thread.👍

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2026913


 
Posted : 29/09/2020 11:42 pm
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It’s just that. Worth some research. But it’s little more than a hunch so far.


 
Posted : 29/09/2020 11:44 pm
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https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-outbreak-faqs-what-you-can-and-cant-do/coronavirus-outbreak-faqs-what-you-can-and-cant-do

Just completely bonkers rules.

I think we would actually be doing the country a great service by ignoring their mad rules entirely.

EDIT: would be interesting to see the scientific evidence they think they are following.


 
Posted : 29/09/2020 11:45 pm
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TBH I’m really pissed off that people are taking the piss/making political points off that. She’s the education minister not in a health, culture or justice role, and she’s not in the affected areas. It’s not her job, and saying “I don’t know” is the right thing to do.

I mean, education is obviously a ****ing disaster this year so she’s not doing her actual job, we should criticise her for that, not for not knowing stuff that’s not her brief.

I do kind of get where you're coming from Northwind. But millions of people are saying - we don't know what the rules are. Just thinking that the messaging (and therefore the rules) could be a bit simpler. We shouldn't be expecting a Minister to be briefed before being confident in what the rules are. General public won't be.


 
Posted : 29/09/2020 11:58 pm
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Just completely bonkers rules.

If you can define any rationale or logic out of that load of old cobblers then you’re doing better than me.

I had to double check that was actually a government site and not the Daily Mash

You may go to a funeral with 27 people if at least one of them is called Dave, but not on Thursdays, where your Dave must be substituted for a Colin and two Steve’s, one of whom must own a cocker spaniel

You may go to a beer garden but only one next to a river, But the pub must have the word ‘and’ in its name. Groups can be no larger than 8, unless you all wear pink, in which case the limit is 200.


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 12:00 am
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Well, if you stayed up late enough, you should now know what it is illegal for you to do today…

https://twitter.com/adamwagner1/status/1311087762028797958?s=21


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 2:00 am
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No ordinary human can navigate these laws. It's basically a license to arrest anyone, anytime they fancy(*).

(*) You might be safe in a beer garden next to a river. We may all need to seek refuge in such a place, but I can't think of any pubs near me that meet this. Even the "Five miles from anywhere" isn't safe.


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 6:49 am
 tomd
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It's a real shame that necessary restrictions are being undermined by the confusing messaging and approach.

I think the government has got a tough job though. Some of the great changes of our time that have benefitted Boris are now working against him. The fragmentation that social media causes is great when you want to tell different "facts" to lots of people at the same time for a political campaign. Not so good when you need to get a consistent message to everyone to build a consensus.

20 years ago you could have sent a consistent message out that would hit most people through the evening news, main papers, top radio stations and billboards. When the message changed you could change it across all platforms at the same time.

If you swapped your smartphone with someone else you would get an entirely different set of COVID facts and therein lies the problem.


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 7:12 am
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But millions of people are saying – we don’t know what the rules are

This includes our world class Track and Trace people too in my experience


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 7:54 am
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Don’t feel sorry for them tomd… there is a tried and tested way to communicate the updated measures and their reasoning to everyone and get the message on all the broadcast and online media… they just refuse to do it. The daily briefings.


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 8:31 am
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If you swapped your smartphone with someone else you would get an entirely different set of COVID facts and therein lies the problem.

Social media isn’t the issue, it’s the strength and the clarity of the leadership.  Instead of fining us £10,000 for singing in someone’s Newcastle house, a clear set of rules and an authoritive stamp on the media that repeats it would start to be far more effective.    The government should be sending out a dictat that we are in a clear national emergency, and any corporate media platform that promotes entanglement of the rules faces action.

Now, you cant stop people tweeting incorrectly, but itd be much harder to misunderstand if the core repetitive message was strong, loud and repeated from stable well respected (and the daily mail) sources.

Thing is, it’s weak, entangled, ever changing, flawed, open to criticism and interpretation and is often flouted by the source.  it’s little more than a fairy tale that keeps you guessing.   Pretty much the only consistency now is wash your hands, cover your face and social distance.

Theres another announcement tonight, and we led to believe London/ lock down areas gets six months of not visiting others houses and 2 weeks of pub and restaurant closure.  And there’s your issue - that’s a rumour before the fact, as is a half term lockdown.  What will Boris say today? And will that be Monday so we can all go and get pissed one last time again at the weekend? Etc, etc, etc.....

It’s rules full of conjecture, change and challenge.  Uncertain actions in uncertain times.


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 8:33 am
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In case nobody noticed,  they're making it up as they go along. They have no plan, no great playbook strategies, no end-game scenario. This is what happens when you have an overgrown child in charge.

As much as I'd like to see them all shot at dawn due to their handling of this, I'm now of the opinion that if Boris had died because of Covid-19, we'd all be better off. They might have actually been so shocked that they get off their arses and tried to do something constructive (rather than selling the family silver behind the scenes and hoping this goes away)


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 8:55 am
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Just as an aside, I think I have the Lockdown/COVID blues today.  With much to be thankful for, my own "it is what it is approach" together with - see Retirement thread - one of my mates getting out to retire to sunnier climes today it seems a weird emotional combo.

I can't put my finger on it, but I'm a little bit dejected and a little bit emotional.  I think perhaps its surprising that the lack of interaction and variety in our lives affects us so much - notwithstanding I'm usually quite happily introverted so its shocked me TBH.


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 9:56 am
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Another nice long piece of airtime for our favourite theoretical epidemiologist on Radio4 Today, as they did one of their “balanced” pieces again. It’s just climate change and Brexit all over again, isn’t it.

And least we have More Or Less coming up next to make up for it…


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 10:02 am
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It’s not her job, and saying “I don’t know” is the right thing to do.

She is a minister. It was inevitable when she turned up that day she was going to be asked about the lockdown as opposed to just her own subject area. It shouldnt be a surprise since it happens every day. So for her not to do any prep was poor.
For me though it was the "I am sure they can find out" which was a failure. The correct response would have been to be able to point them to the clear and helpful government website where you can see the exact rules for your area.
Sadly though since that would take more than three words, of which at least two are generally a lie, that seems beyond the government.


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 10:04 am
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I think it's easy to let all this get on top of you, no question. Throw other stuff from your personal life into the mix and you're drowning.

I've stopped watching or listening to the news, except from sports stuff. This isn't going away soon, but it will eventually, meanwhile life goes on. It doesn't stop me doing what I love, ie the great outdoors, I'm fortunate enough to have my health, a job and a loving family, so I focus on what I have.

Look at the positives Krypton. 🙏


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 10:08 am
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I can’t put my finger on it, but I’m a little bit dejected and a little bit emotional.

It’s a difficult time of year for “can’t put my finger on it ennui”… many people get it most years as October hits… don’t be hard on yourself… many more will feel it this autumn I expect, as getting together with people as the evenings get darker normally helps fight off the feeling. Look after each other people… remote communication can help. Fire up Zoom or FaceTime…


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 10:08 am
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And there’s your issue – that’s a rumour before the fact

The problem is that this is a government isn't really even a government at all. Its the 'Vote Leave' campaign, led by Cummings and it has a single issue agenda... Brexit

And all it knows how to do is whats worked for them in the past. And their previous campaigns thrived on misinformation, lies, truth-twisting and the abuse of data, all delivered via vacuous sloganeering. It's what they do. But whats now apparent is that thats all they can do. They're a one trick pony.

When it comes to the sort of clear, concise, unambiguous communication thats required right now, they just don't know where to start. They haven't a clue. They simply don't know how to do it as it goes against all their natural instincts.

Their instinct is to jealously hoard data and information, not distribute it, and to conduct their activities in a totally opaque manner, when whats required is transparency. They are naturally confrontational when cooperation is whats actually needed

And because they don't know what they're doing their default has been kite-flying. The press will report 'A Downing Street Source' (thats code for Dominic Cummings) is indicating a policy change. But its just a kite-flying exercise to gauge reaction and opinion. And depending on reaction, they might follow though on it, they might not. But because they're doing this shit all the bloody time, they can't even keep track of it themselves.

So what chance do the rest of us have?


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 10:08 am
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She is a minister. It was inevitable when she turned up that day she was going to be asked about the lockdown as opposed to just her own subject area. It shouldnt be a surprise since it happens every day.

Our management team at work all head up different teams and objectives, but everyone of them knows and works to the overall company strategy.  Its not rocket science or a new invention, as above one would expect she'd know the overall if not the specifics of a different area.


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 10:10 am
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More Or Less are on pooled testing… we’re lucky to have TiRed here to make us aware of this (amongst other things) ages ago.


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 10:11 am
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And because they don’t know what they’re doing their default has been kite-flying. The press will report ‘A Downing Street Source’ (thats code for Dominic Cummings) is indicating a policy change. But its just a kite-flying exercise to gauge reaction and opinion. And depending on reaction, they might follow though on it, they might not. But because they’re doing this shit all the bloody time, they can’t even keep track of it themselves.

Nailed it.


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 10:14 am
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led by Cummings and it has a single issue agenda… Brexit

Not entirely true. Brexit is a means to an end. Cummings wants to reinvent the country using brexit as the pivot point.
Overall though I would agree. Cummings has been a professional political campaigner/dreamer all his life with a definite preference for when in doubt tell lies. Which works well enough in a campaign but sadly not so well when you are in charge.


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 10:22 am
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And all it knows how to do is whats worked for them in the past. And their previous campaigns thrived on misinformation, lies, truth-twisting, and the abuse of data all delivered via vacuous sloganeering. It’s what they do. But whats now apparent is that thats all they can do. They’re a one trick pony.

Sounds like the average 2nd/3rd world dictatorship, only without the more sinister and obvious in-your-face censorship & secret police.


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 10:26 am
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Useful article dealing with IFR and R:

https://unherd.com/2020/09/has-covid-become-less-dangerous/


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 10:37 am
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-54351725

Only just read above article while still very brain foggy, looks like my fears from a few weeks have materialised, positive C19 test results have roughly doubled to ~40+/100k in the North Wales coast counties and if I read correctly, I cannot jump on the train from Southampton to Prestatyn next week to go and visit my mum and sister for a few days.

It'sod's law that by luck, I might have been able to see them at Xmas due to how my shift rota falls, but just like a few years back when train strikes messed things up at the last minute I fear this lockdown will last until around spring. 🙁


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 10:38 am
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Social media isn’t the issue, it’s the strength and the clarity of the leadership

The second point I agree with it but it then causes social media to become a problem.

Most of this discussion is now spreading opinions about what the rules should be. Some of it correct, some of it not, all if it understandably angry and frustrated, some of it bordering on hysterical at times, a lot of it confirmation bias of our own opinions.

I get that it's a chat forum, I get that people are mentally and emotionally exhausted by all this, but we are at times muddying the waters more than they need to be.


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 10:48 am
 loum
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The last lockdown was too effective for their liking . Cummings acted to reduce the likelihood of that reoccurring.

You’re ascribing intelligence, thought and planning to a group of our ‘leaders’, who I’m not sure are that deserving.

Posted 19 hours ago

No. I'm talking about Cummings, the man who actually got turkeys to vote for Christmas. Specialist in media manipulation and misinformation. But you think he's just a bit stupid?

Maybe you are more intelligent, but he absolutely shafted an effective lockdown that he was ideologically opposed to.

If I've got to ascribe to him either intelligent choice, or innocent accident, then it's the innocence that I struggle with.


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 1:18 pm
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If I’ve got to ascribe to him either intelligent choice, or innocent accident, then it’s the innocence that I struggle with.

I wouldnt say its innocent accident but purely self serving arrogance. Remember he sodded off on hols right at the beginning of the lockdown so he would have had no idea how effective it would have been.
Then when he was caught it was simple arrogance that as a British unelected bureaucrat he doesnt have to answer to anyone.


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 1:23 pm
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BillMC
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Useful article dealing with IFR and R:

https://unherd.com/2020/09/has-covid-become-less-dangerous//blockquote >

good article

treatment & possibly control measures reducing fatality rate is a good thing

Unfortunately, because we locked down so late we didnt know all this at the start, countries that avoided big second wave have this knowledge and will have less deaths


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 1:54 pm
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The government should be sending out a dictat that we are in a clear national emergency, and any corporate media platform that promotes entanglement of the rules faces action.

Surly that last bit is a dangerous road to go down, the gov' cannot and should not be able to say what the press can and cannot say.


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 2:05 pm
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Surly that last bit is a dangerous road to go down, the gov’ cannot and should not be able to say what the press can and cannot say.

limited to Coronavirus  announcements and restrictions, they can proliferate all they like about Marjorie at no 10 and her lust for Coronation st.


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 2:14 pm
 colp
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Instead of fining us £10,000 for singing in someone’s Newcastle house

So is it ok to sing out of toon?


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 2:19 pm
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limited to Coronavirus announcements and restrictions,

So would they need to bleep out what Johnson said?
What about when people were challenging the figures and saying we should be going into lockdown whilst Johnson was saying "nahhh got the babyshower this weekend"?
It seems rather dangerous to allow a proven incompetent government to go unquestioned.


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 2:24 pm
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colp

So is it ok to sing out of toon?

Post of the day.


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 2:26 pm
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a proven incompetent government to go unquestioned

The journalists can ask them questions at the daily briefings. Oh.

I'm dead against limiting what others (including the press) say about this health emergency... the government just needs to stop leaving a vacuum for the speculation to fill (and stop chucking off-the-record briefings into that vacuum to stir things up).


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 2:28 pm
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I know it's childish but...
https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1311312433596837896?s=20


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 4:33 pm
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And all it knows how to do is whats worked for them in the past. And their previous campaigns thrived on misinformation, lies, truth-twisting and the abuse of data, all delivered via vacuous sloganeering. It’s what they do. But whats now apparent is that thats all they can do. They’re a one trick pony.

The trick is drive it like you stole it. Much of is made of the electorate whisperer post Brexit but it was so close did he contribute or just claim to as happened to be in the vicinity at the time. Following the Rose Garden speech where a bold re-imagining of his insight into the impact of a pandemic occurred - I'm going for the latter. He is the King of Cockups but unfortunately he's now got absolute power as the jester is just clowning around.


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 5:07 pm
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https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending18september2020

That has a graph of all deaths, covid19 deaths, and flu deaths.

The covid19 deaths were much higher than flu, but now, they are actually lower.

i.e. flu is still around, and killing more people than covid, unaffected by any lockdown measures we might be taking, at least as of 18th September.


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 6:05 pm
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Hooray for Chris Whitty (briefing) making it very clear.


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 6:12 pm
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Well, that was a very good summary of where we are… bit very little about what we are doing, or going to have to do.


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 6:47 pm
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The ONS have upped their reporting game. But even adjusting for the week delay from the bank holiday (30 AUG this year), all cause mortality is still above 10-year min/max (they show only 5-years in that data and released tables). Sadly the ratio is above unity still.

Yes it's a semi-log scale, and deaths have been trending upwards, despite the Bank Holiday offset.


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 6:54 pm
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I'm still waiting for johnson to state unequivocally what the government's objective is.
There are some contributors who appear to be fully convinced a vaccine will be available in the near future.
Let's assume that a vaccine is some way into the future; what are the gov trying to achieve or do they have no strategy but are reliant on a series of short term measures.
They need to have a clear objective which is shared with the public in an attempt to gain widespread public support.
To date, they have dismally failed.


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 6:59 pm
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You can’t state you have a vaccine based plan ‘till you have a vaccine. The only plan is to keep the virus under control with public health measures while we seek to develop both treatments and prophylactics.


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 7:05 pm
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I always think a stated objective should lead to intended favourable consequences. If your objective is to "keep schools open", then that has follow-on implications for the economy. You may close pubs to reduce transmission so as to offset the increased transmission from opening schools. You can engage in prospective testing of education establishments and their environs to keep schools open. And so on. Clarity is helpful despite the unpalatable choices.

And there are no good choices here. I think that should also be communicated clearly too.


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 7:05 pm
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Step outside the STW bubble and ask...what do the general public understand the gov objectives to be?
TiRed - completely agree with...

there are no good choices here. I think that should also be communicated clearly too.


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 7:19 pm
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Well, that was a very good summary of where we are… bit very little about what we are doing, or going to have to do.

say what? Hands, Face, Space, reducing transmission and saving lives not obvious enough?  It’s common bleedin’ sense.


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 7:59 pm
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say what? Hands, Face, Space, reducing transmission and saving lives not obvious enough? It’s common bleedin’ sense.

Unless you are in a school!


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 9:10 pm
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I’m still waiting for johnson to state unequivocally what the government’s objective is.

That's because his or Dom's whole approach is fire fighting and it's held upto to be a legitimate form of government. Lean, flexible and permanently flappable. Boris might have bought into it when it was sold it's harder to hit a moving target so you can avoid accountability. It's probably a whole other thread but yesterday's Boris Talks Bollocks seemed to be a grand work of fiction regarding the causes of under investment in the UK.


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 9:13 pm
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his or Dom’s whole approach is fire fighting and it’s held upto to be a legitimate form of government.

It's becoming clear that is no longer acceptable to many tories with the 1922 committee particularly taking issue.


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 9:42 pm
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I'll leave this here


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 10:03 pm
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El Shalimo - is that a one-off tee?
If not, where can i get one?


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 10:07 pm
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Dunno, it's doing the rounds on WhatsApp but it certainly captures the zeitgeist!!


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 10:22 pm
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frankconway
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Step outside the STW bubble and ask…what do the general public understand the gov objectives to be?
TiRed – completely agree with…

The brexit & tory voters on my Facebook feed are specifically asking what the hell is going on

I can't stress enough how behind Johnson they were just 6 months ago

Its amazing how quickly they have turned against this government

My opinion is that they believe in brexit & Boris because they believed it was the obvious and easy option.

Johnson was only ever going to be a PM for the good times, they dont want to hear the truth from Johnson & he is too terrified to tell them.....

there are no good choices here. I think that should also be communicated clearly too.


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 10:43 pm
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say what? Hands, Face, Space, reducing transmission and saving lives not obvious enough? It’s common bleedin’ sense.

We're doing that & cases are still rising

"common sense" is just subjective nonsense


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 10:44 pm
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say what? Hands, Face, Space, reducing transmission and saving lives not obvious enough? It’s common bleedin’ sense.

Unless you are in a school!

Not quite sure what the constant comments about schools are driving at A_A. I can only talk from personal experience, but our school is trying to do all of the things listed above as best they can, and more. But no-one has ever tried to claim that opening schools presents zero risk. But it's a trade-off between that additional risk and the near-certainty of harm to kids education and general wellbeing if they were kept out of school for longer.


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 10:46 pm
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say what? Hands, Face, Space, reducing transmission and saving lives not obvious enough? It’s common bleedin’ sense.

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1311404226195722240?s=09


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 10:47 pm
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Not quite sure what the constant comments about schools are driving at

The complete lack of social distancing.


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 10:50 pm
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@kimbers
Lol, you just can't make this sh*t up. What a farce.


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 10:51 pm
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TBH fire fighting IS a legitimate form of government when the problem is a fire, it's just that they're not actually fighting the fires- just running up to a fire, throwing a load of highly flammable exceptionalism cladding on it, then when people point out that it's got worse shouting "Look, another fire" and running away, in the hope that everyone forgets about the last fire. The fire moved the goalposts, but don't worry, Serco will make millions maintaining the fire at its current level, if only Keir Starmer will let them get on with it.

New Zealand's response was firefighting, actual firefighting. Holy shit, a fire, let's put it out straight away. Bet they wish they had a world class oven-ready fire like us.


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 11:13 pm
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kimbers, I wrote months ago that if I was feeling particularly generous johnson could be described as PM for the good times.
Even when he was elected there was no sign of good times - unless for those who believed that brexit led directly to their version of the promised land of...uk laws for uk people, white faces only but darker colours allowed to work in NHS and care homes, bountiful trade deals with countries around the globe.
Basking in the reflected glory of adulatory headlines in the mail and telegraph.
Our current problems - CV19 and no deal brexit - are so far beyond johnson's capabilities; he must be wishing he kept his mouth shut and kept his dick in his trousers.
Memo to johnson...be careful what you wish for.


 
Posted : 30/09/2020 11:39 pm
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