Reuter’s TV reporting NY running out of gowns too. Whilst there are many failings here, it’s a global issue too.
For me, the biggest barrier to lifting any lockdown is a huge stockpile of PPE, both for the testing set-up, and dealing with the next wave. Not to mention daily masks for 65 million people.
I wonder which clueless numpty will be wheeled out as Borises human shield today?
This amused me last week.
He’s got it mostly sorted… next up… moving between classes and in and out of school and home.
Yes, and our classrooms are half that size. Also, the 2m distance is not calculated based upon spending an hour next to somebody, never mind an hour in a room with numerous others, repeated all day long. I would be keen to see what exposure that exposes somebody to. The class rooms at my school have appalling ventilation (practically none).
People who form opinions of politicians based on their looks always go way down in my estimation.
Just as well you didn't see the Trump blimp, then...
The point was not that Trump looks like a baby, he does not, but that he has the temperament of one.
People who form opinions of politicians based on their looks always go way down in my estimation.
Just as well you didn’t see the Trump blimp, then…
Not sure how the two are related.
“It’s just a shame she looks like Widow T****y”
Your wife must have been to some very odd pantomimes if she thinks that?
There won't be any significant social distancing in schools. That's the sort of decree where managers either delude themselves or lie to others. Not that I'm opposed to the cautious lifting of restrictions but one must be realistic.
Yup- that's not a spacial mechanics or logistical issue, size of classrooms and corridors and that don't really come into it- it's a human issue and it's kids.
Anecdotally people are being told to stay at home who sound like they should be properly checked out
In my case the COVID team came to me instead, having made the tele-judgement that I'd be OK overnight (I was, btw). They did admit they were just working it out and the system was new. That was 14 days ago. First thing the next morning they knocked on the door. I was impressed, actually.
I imagine their non-COVID triage has not changed. Now their recommendation for 999 if serious.
Sounds well handled TiRed.
I “think” the concern [that I was replying to] was for those with non-Covid related problems though, and why they might be attending health care facilities in numbers lower than they previously were. 111 currently more likely to suggest people wait it out at home, rather see GP or drop in centre etc. Is that happening in serious numbers? I don’t know. Only going by anecdotes. I prefer the idea that the numbers only represent delayed elective procedures and fewer drunken pub fights [and, whisper it… maybe even fewer mountain bike accidents]… but suspect it is many different things changing how and when people are being treated, advice about when to seek help could be one of them, and it would be understandable if it were.
Yes, and our classrooms are half that size. Also, the 2m distance is not calculated based upon spending an hour next to somebody, never mind an hour in a room with numerous others, repeated all day long. I would be keen to see what exposure that exposes somebody to. The class rooms at my school have appalling ventilation
I'm no expert, but I didn't think that was meant to be taken seriously
Your wife must have been to some very odd pantomimes if she thinks that?
I don’t know about that, but I do know that what she meant was Wee Jimmy Kranky.
Not sure how the two are related.
I'll bet
I prefer the idea that the numbers only represent delayed elective procedures and fewer drunken pub fights [and, whisper it… maybe even fewer mountain bike accidents]… but suspect it is many different things changing how and when people are being treated, advice about when to seek help could be one of them, and it would be understandable if it were.
I've read - Guardian I suspect - that part of what's happening is that folk with cardiac arrest and stroke symptoms and similar are reluctant to go to hospital, so they're how arriving with more serious symptoms that they would have previously and - probably - some of them aren't arriving at all. Ditto with things like appendicitis.
Erm... these. Logically it's probably a combination of fewer RTAs and drunken accidents and the reluctance of people to go to hospital for fear of exposure to covid-19.
Anecdotally - I know that some local GPs have been refusing home visits. And in more than one case, the patient has died. I'm not suggesting the GP could have saved them, just pointing out that they were genuine/serious calls. If that's repeated across the country then that might help explain the numbers dying at home and the "empty" hospitals.
piha, if thats for real, would be very nice to see someone get the boot for that!
It's not my Twitter account but yes, if the allegations are true then this would be extremely embarrassing for whoever is involved or knew about it.
piha - thanks for posting that; if true, it needs wider publicity.
I don't know who John O'Connell is but, following the thread, he seems to be a media type so shouldn't be too difficult to get the Guardian/(Sunday) Times onto it; 5live are providing extensive coverage - would they be interested?
Anecdotally – I know that some local GPs have been refusing home visits. And in more than one case, the patient has died. I’m not suggesting the GP could have saved them, just pointing out that they were genuine/serious calls. If that’s repeated across the country then that might help explain the numbers dying at home and the “empty” hospitals.
Yep, my gran died on Saturday, Dr wouldn't come out when she started getting ill early in the week. was a hard enough job getting them out when she had died. Not mad at them in any way, just frustrated for my parents who were on their own with her not sure what to do, couldn't get through on 111.
Doubt it's advisable for me to go for the funeral now that I moved 200 miles way only a couple of months ago. Awkward one as I pretty much grew up with my Grandparents.
torygrapgh getting ready to throw hancock under the bus?
https://twitter.com/MarkDiStef/status/1252341967020646402
It’s not my Twitter account but yes, if the allegations are true then this would be extremely embarrassing for whoever is involved or knew about it.
does cummings feel embarrassment?
And Beardy takes up half the front page.
A doctor in Ireland has made a public appeal for the public to donate protective gowns:
https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-news/st-jamess-hospital-staff-appeal-18118329
PPE supply is clearly a global problem - there’s too much demand and all of the production has been allowed by most countries to drift to low cost economies.
Our health and social care workers are now paying the price.
I bet hancock gets the blame for this
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1252362012845207552
tho reading thru the leaked document, seems not unexpected, PHE took reagents & machines from labs all across the country, must be impossible to find same batch & lot of enzynes
That NHS Susan account looks like satire.
Not a time for satire; it looks much more like deliberate mis/dis-information.
That article probably underestimates how crap the test is. AFAIK the sensitivity is around 70% ie. 30% false negatives. It's so crap that it's only just part of the assessment of patients and isn't changing their management in any way. I'm not sure how sensitive the one say in Germany is by comparison?
On the subject of Beardy Branson.
As epicyclo pertinently pointed out, he is domiciled in the BVI for tax purposes. He should be going to them and their vast expensive government apparatus that all residents pay their taxes to for this kind of eventuality.
Oh, that's right. The whole point of being domiciled there is to avoid paying tax. Well it's tough titty then. Don't pay your house insurance? Don't expect a payout if your house burns down.
If he lets VA go under and has to retire to his island Bond villain style then our newly found 'creative spirit' could be employed. I was initially thinking about some kind of blockade to starve him out, but of course that would be costly and we haven't got the hardware any more. So, I think we should grasp the opportunity and use it for a live test of the Trident system. Nothing crazy, I'm sure we could stick a couple of conventional warheads on to test the guidance systems.
Did anybody see Newsnight last night?
They had a graphic showing the actual days deaths occurred, rather than the usual random scattergun they announce at the pressers. It had a definite peak on 8th Apr. Daily new hospital admission data also backed this up
The 2 professors were theorising that the peak in London actually coincides with the initial social distancing measures, rather than the full lockdown. They were also quoting GP survey data which showed the same.
Add Sweden into this mix, who have stayed low, It could just be that full lockdown indefinitely isn’t required?
Sweden has a population of around 10 million, stretched across a landmass bigger than the whole UK. The UK has 60 million in not much more than half that space. Net result - Sweden has a much lower population density than the UK.
theres
They had a graphic showing the actual days deaths occurred, rather than the usual random scattergun they announce at the pressers. It had a definite peak on 8th Apr. Daily new hospital admission data also backed this up
The data from the Covid symptom tracker app shows an estimated peak of symptomatic cases on 1st April, so a peak in deaths a week later is consistent with that.
https://covid.joinzoe.com/data
The 2 professors were theorising that the peak in London actually coincides with the initial social distancing measures, rather than the full lockdown.
Which is great, but a chunk of workplaces took one look at what the goverment was doing, took another at the rest of the world and sent everyone home from when the government announced social distancing, so a proportion of people were in effective lockdown before lockdown happened - how do we account for that?
How many people will stay wfh in the short term anyway? My wife certainly will. I’m not suggesting we all go back to normal, just that hopefully there is a possible way to do something.
As for the role schools play This Guardian article Warrants further investigation.
Edited due to tangent.
Anyway, where are people getting their stats? I've been looking at worldometers and I'm wondering if they aren't reporting case recoveries from the UK. The daily new cases is fairly flat but the 'total active cases' is still on a straight line upwards.
Which is great, but a chunk of workplaces took one look at what the goverment was doing, took another at the rest of the world and sent everyone home from when the government announced social distancing, so a proportion of people were in effective lockdown before lockdown happened – how do we account for that?
This. We (and a lot of people we know) have been effectively locked down since well before the official lockdown date. Asymptomatic people were being advised to self-isolate for 14 days if someone in their household had any kind of cough/temperature.
Why lockdowns are the wrong policy - Swedish expert Prof. Johan Giesecke
Unherd is just Spiked for people who think they ‘follow new science’. Contrarian for clicks and disturbance. Long since stopped reading anything they publish… the wheat to chaff ratio has made it a waste of time. Could you summarise what’s in that video, for those of us that don’t want to give them half an hour of our time please?
Sweden is best compared with it's near neighbour Finland. And if you're keeping score it's currently 1580 to 98.
"Could you summarise what’s in that video"
UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based
The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only
This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product”
The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better
The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact
The paper was very much too pessimistic
Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway
The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown
The results will eventually be similar for all countries
Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.
The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available
It's funny how the 'lockdown is wrong' contrarians arguments/models/assumptions get destroyed by data within days, and they have to start clutching for new ones.
The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
FFS. Literally 10s of googling:
Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected
For the actual CFR of Covid to currently be 0.1% (1 death per a thousand cases), so far a quarter of the UK population would already have been infected. Spectacular news for herd immunity fans, I'd say.
Even if the argument is that the apparent percentage has been weighted by large numbers of deaths among vulnerable people, this still seems like an ambitious prediction. 🙂
FFS. Literally 10s of googling:
I'm guessing they're dragging the 0.1% CFR from the '50% of the population have already had it' assertion. Easy to suggest that without antibody testing. As for 'it's a mild disease' one of my team (fit, late 20s) has been off with it for over 2 weeks now, in that time he's lost his mum to it and his father in law is still in hospital. That ain't the flu.
