Also any company whose vat return increases over the period should not be able to claim free money.
Furlough fine, business grants when your taking in more money rather than less is wrong and is taking advantage
Some small businesses will be flat out and busier than ever, they do not need a hand out
because it wasn’t as bad as they thought or is the expectation there that a second peak will be worse
Largely because over-capacity is a lot better than the alternative. See Italy. When you are trying to predict something exponentially growing, being within two-fold can sometimes be viewed as a success.
I think it shows that lockdown has worked quite well & people really are sticking to it, which is good to see
question is could we keep it manageable by reopening some shops, workplaces & even schools whilst keep social distancing in place, masks, etc ?
I think it shows that lockdown has worked quite well & people really are sticking to it, which is good to see
Completely agree. When people grasp the severity of the situation, the vast majority behave the right way. I think it has worked VERY well actually, It's just a supertanker to turn around, not a speedboat.
Sadly, I view opening schools as an economic decision rather than an educational one. Reduce th lockdown, possibly by half-term, and maybe staged, because there will be a HUGE increase in contacts. Think linear (~N, i.e., just the family and near friends) to factorial (N*(N-1)*(N-2)*...) Exponential processes are unforgiving.
question is could we keep it manageable by reopening some shops, workplaces & even schools whilst keep social distancing in place, masks, etc ?
Welcome to the near term future.
Sadly, I view opening schools as an economic decision rather than an educational one. Reduce th lockdown, possibly by half-term, and maybe staged, because there will be a HUGE increase in contacts. Think linear (~N, i.e., just the family and near friends) to factorial (N*(N-1)*(N-2)*…) Exponential processes are unforgiving.
I agree that reopening schools will see a huge increase in contacts. It is hard to see how they can safely be reopened in the near future. I’m unclear how you’d even have a staged return; what school years are most important to restart first? Or if you went with a reduced school week for pupils, with say each year attending 2 days per week, that would appear to have all the downsides of being open, but less direct teaching.
Sadly, I view opening schools as an economic decision rather than an educational one
Not to mention a political one.
the minister on breakfast this morning....
where's the PPE ? It's a crisis, you cant believe how big this crisis is! it's a huge global catastrophe.
why didn't Blowjo attend cobra meetings ? wasn't important.
Sadly, I view opening schools as an economic decision rather than an educational one. Reduce th lockdown, possibly by half-term, and maybe staged, because there will be a HUGE increase in contacts.
My wife and I are both classed as Key Workers however the majority of our work is from home. Our son is entitled to go into the school but we decided we would rather live with the pain of home schooling and trying to balance work as it reduces the contact risk massively. If my wife or I have to go into work then we can control our contacts, wash hands, minimise the risk etc. Our son is 6 and as hard as the school may try it will be a huge area for transmission.
I don't know any teachers expecting to return for normal schooling until after the summer break (mid August up here).
Kids going back to school is a infection control, educational, economic and political decision. All need to be considered if not given the same weighting. They are all interlinked. If the schools don't reopen when lock down is eased many people still won't be able to go back to work and there won't necessarily be furlough options available then which will put many people in a very difficult position.
Educationally the current year 10 and year 12 are the priority, they really can't afford to miss a full term of learning with exams next year. For the others being out of school for 5 months (assuming they go back in September) will be very difficult getting back into the learning habit and catching up.
People have accepted the schools being shut so far as it coincided with the lock down and Easter holidays. When the lock down is eased there will be growing pressure to reopen schools. Personally I still think going back early June after half term in England and Wales is most likely unless the figures get worse again.
Did Mr Johnson ever attend COBRA meetings? There were a number back in October in the run-up to Brexit and potential No Deal emergency planning. I am sure that attendance is a matter of public record. I am not defending him, just saying that his lack of interest is not just in global health crises.
Schools are an issue for sure, depressing to hear that take up of home learning among dissadvantaged children is incredibly low and that some private & independent schools were able to switch to digital home learning with hardly any interruption into normal lessons (R4 this morning)
So sad if this entrenches inequalities even further
I can see some staggered return to school after the May half term, depending what we are seeing from European experience ahead of us.
6 weeks to see how it goes, 6 weeks summer holiday to lock back down if necessary. If only we'd tracked and traced properly we'd have a better idea what risk kids at school pose to their families. I'm not hearing news articles or anecdotal stories about dedicated teachers dying of the virus from looking after keyworkers' and vulnerable kids? Maybe restricted numbers and social distancing is protecting them.
Everything is a risk and a trial coming out of lockdown. Better to risk/test it in the summer rather than in September when we have an impending winter flu season as well? I don't know.
It won't go away without a vaccine or some new wonder cure. The economy and government bailouts can't continue indefinitely. At some point, we're going to have to take some big risks
Apparently all the other prime ministers always attended all the COBRA meetings.
Seems that having a good old Brexity circle jerk with his cabinet of poodles was more important to Boris, as was going on holiday.
"6 weeks to see how it goes, 6 weeks summer holiday to lock back down if necessary"
That bears repeating.
If the kids go back and cases go up, it'll soon be time for summer holidays anyway. Then everyone is still in a "normal" routine and the kids are away from school to cool things off a bit.
Do we have any estimates, reliable or otherwise, from reputable sources, about what % of population might have seen (recovered, asymptomatic, whatever) this thing now?
I suppose teachers who get ill can then recover over the summer hols… well, apart from those that don’t make it to September. Some people are a bit too keen on other people taking on risk.
As for divides becoming greater while distance learning is everything… this is an ongoing not a new challenge (homework/revision etc)… and the education system needs targeted (additional) funding to help with this anyway. Even more urgent now. Also, universal broadband access rears its head again…
I’m not hearing news articles or anecdotal stories about dedicated teachers dying of the virus from looking after keyworkers’ and vulnerable kids?
Considering the teachers are currently on a rota so not likely in more than once a week and last time I went in from our 3 school academy trust we had 3 kids I dont think thats a great measure.
How many deaths would be acceptable?
Just had some news via a local resilience forum call (regular call that brings together various organisations) that Hants and IOW hospitals are at 60% bed occupancy, way below normal. Measures taken to reduce the pressure to the NHS are working for the county.
It’s not all bad news.
Some people are a bit too keen on other people taking on risk.
Apologies if I came over a bit blase over that.
MrsMC is a front line child protection worker. You can imagine what lockdown is doing to some of the families and kids she has to deal with every day. Face to face. With no PPE.
Before she comes home to me and the kids.
The kids who have been told (aged 16 and 13) where the folder is with the wills, and the contact details, and financial stuff and passwords, just in case.
So I'm not unaware of the risks that key workers have been taking in this crisis, because I'm living it every day.
Some of them may get the virus and might die. Or pass it to family members who may die. But statistically it's unlikely to be us. And government decisions have to balance the risk to society as a whole versus the risk to "us" as individuals.
Just had some news via a local resilience forum call (regular call that brings together various organisations) that Hants and IOW hospitals are at 60% bed occupancy, way below normal. Measures taken to reduce the pressure to the NHS are working for the county.
It’s not all bad news.
Read a report of a paramedic saying that he's been called out to more deaths than usual which is clearly due to folk staying away from hospitals when intervention/treatment was needed. It's worrying that people have died cos they 'didn't want to worry the NHS/doctor/nurse'.
that Hants and IOW hospitals are at 60% bed occupancy
IOW has the military providing additional standby beds as well… so they were well positioned to cope with a rise in demand (which hopefully has now been avoided).
It’s worrying that people have died cos they ‘didn’t want to worry the NHS/doctor/nurse’.
NHS Direct/111 are the people to direct that worry to.
MrsMC is a front line child protection worker.
Thank her from all of us. The things she sees must be heart wrenching. Stay safe.
Hants and IOW hospitals are at 60% bed occupancy, way below normal. Measures taken to reduce the pressure to the NHS are working for the county.
It’s not all bad news.
Dear God, have a think?
kelvin, at the start Hampshire was the hardest hit but no longer the case. Folk in my part of Hampshire do seem to be taking this seriously - never seen so many joggers, runners, wobbly cyclists and roadies. No large groups either.
NHS Direct/111 are the people to direct that worry to.
Has that been well publicised?
I’ve heard lots of radio ads that include ringing 111. Anecdotally people are being told to stay at home who sound like they should be properly checked out. But by who and where? Not an easy answer.
One thing that must be having a big effect on hospitals is pubs & clubs being shut
1 in 14 hospital admissions is alcohol related, rising to 1 in 5 at weekends
People still drinking at home, but not as much & less possibility for drunk driving , & a big ruck afterwards in the kebab shop....
Less opportunity for overbiked middle aged Sam hill wannabes to injure oyrselves when trail centres shut
Less workplace accidents, less kids falling off climbing frames etc
Same everywhere.
In France hospital visits are down 60% and GP visits down too.
Schools due to go back on 11th of May but lots of parents and teachers not happy.
Over the past week, lot more cars and people out and about.
Thank her from all of us. The things she sees must be heart wrenching. Stay safe.
She doesn't have a heart to wrench any more.
A friend's wife is a paediatric A&E consultant. Business is well down, which she is a little worried about, pretty sure there are kids not coming in who need seeing
@robbie1234
So were the additional ventilators and beds that were procured not used (although they haven’t all been delivered) because it wasn’t as bad as they thought or is the expectation there that a second peak will be worse and therefore the Nightingale Hospitals and Ventilators will be required?
We're coming towards the peak of the first wave of infections. There was a video a few pages back of Angela Merkel with subtitles, explaining as you come out of lock-down, the difficulty with tight margins... if you re-open and manage to keep onward infection rates at 1.1, then the German health system becomes overwhelmed by October; if the R rate is 1.3, then it is July or earlier. We will still need Nightingale type facilities for the forseeable future, as each time a lockdown is relaxed there will be a wave of infection and those needing hospital treatment.
With regard to people not attending hospital, I think there are various contributions to excess deaths and only with a very detailed look at cases at some point in the future will we know what proportion is due to different factors, from which we can hopefully learn something. It is likely to be a combination of reduced hazard (less drinking, less hazardous activities); people with life threatening conditions who should attend but haven't (A&E statistics show less admissions for heart-attacks; or postponed treatments); and how many of the excess deaths are COVID-19 without it being on the death certificate (many care home deaths have 'pneumonia' but not COVID-19). See this graph of excess deaths in just 1 week from ONS data:
Speigelhalter graph from ONS data
I am not a teacher and am childless but why cant we hold off sending bsck the kids till 1st june, do 6 weeks then 2 off. No one needs a protracted 8 week summer holidsy just mow. Then do 6 weeks and nother 2 weeks off, then 6 weeks and its xmas. Lrts face reality some kids will be massively behaind and need to catch up,
And 6 weeks off in 6 months is more than everyone else gets
Does anyone know if regions such as Wales/Scotland (with devolved parliaments) would need to follow if/when England start their lockdown easing? I ask as living in NE Scotland (Aberdeen) I wonder that if England go back before Scotland come out of lockdown and there is a second wave in England it may actually mean Scotland doesn't actually come out of lockdown for a longer period of time...
WRT schools reopening, as a primary headteacher I know put it 'how the f*** am I going to run a school of 500 kids with half my teachers off either self isolating, sheilding due to pre-existing conditions, or ill?'
And 6 weeks off in 6 months is more than everyone else gets
Every teacher I know (who hasn’t been ill) worked through these Easter holidays, and always work at least two of those ‘6 weeks off’ every summer.
I am not defending him, just saying that his lack of interest is not just in global health crises.
It was common knowledge from his entire career and particularly his utterly embarrassing time pretending to be foreign secretary that he was lazy, prone to going AWOL (Heathrow), had absolutely no interest whatsoever in the detail of anything and didn't even bother to read his briefing notes (Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe).
So it just surprises me that anyone finds it newsworthy that he decided to go on holiday instead of doing his day job, even if that is apparently being Prime Minister.
I just watched Nichola Sturgeons press briefing. She's showing the type of decisive leadership that has been completely absent from the government during this whole sorry shambles
Well my children (years 8 and 10) are currently on their lunch break after a morning of real time online schooling so some teachers are working pretty hard. One has homework already to be in by Friday. Back at 2pm for the last lesson (maths for yr 10, English for yr 8). Apparently it was the roaring 20's in History this morning - cant wait till we get to our own roaring 20's.
WRT schools reopening, as a primary headteacher I know put it ‘how the f*** am I going to run a school of 500 kids with half my teachers off either self isolating, sheilding due to pre-existing conditions, or ill?’
Indeed and also the staged openings with certain year groups to maintain social distances will require massive timetabling rewrites. Time tabling at most secondaries is hugely complex and costs thousands and takes a lot of time. It will need the schools to be given a plan and parameters like class sizes well in advance. Do we really want to go from 2m social distance to 30 kids in a 5 by 7m room?
I just watched Nichola Sturgeons press briefing. She’s showing the type of decisive leadership that has been completely absent from the government during this whole sorry shambles
“It’s just a shame she looks like Widow T****y”
(Quote from my wife the other day)
“It’s just a shame she looks like Widow T****y”
People who form opinions of politicians based on their looks always go way down in my estimation.
This amused me last week.
He’s got it mostly sorted… next up… moving between classes and in and out of school and home.
Dead easy - chain gangs.
Not got kids myself but a good mate has a 11 yr old who was in primary 7 going into 1st year after the holidays, she's a single mum as her husband (my best mate) died of cancer back in 2018 and she says theres no ****ing way she's sending her kid to school to catch/spread the virus, likewise another mate is a headteacher of a small school and lives/cares for her elderly mum with cpd, she's not opening up/going back to school
We are having the discussion about sending our boy back into school, unless we are sure it is relatively controlled then I guess we will be reducing hours for a bit with the hot in salaries.
Kids don't understand social distancing etc (he is nearly 5) and I'm sorry but schools and school kids are amazing disease vectors
We are having the discussion about sending our boy back into school, unless we are sure it is relatively controlled then I guess we will be reducing hours for a bit with the hot in salaries.
I'm confused I thought school was closed. If kids go into school due to parents being key workers they are not being taught, its not school its just child care.
The major reason for the reduced hospital admissions is the cancellation of elective procedures and many forms of diagnostic testing. The latter also mean reduced intake as the conditions that require treatment aren't being detected.
It's also feared that people who need emergency treatment aren't seeking help.
Lots of talk about when can we reopen shops and schools, but when will Hospitals be back to offering universal care to everyone who needs it?
