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More likely than cafe ownership.....
Britains moron threat level raised from moderate to severe
And in 5 years time they’ll still have 2 cupboards completely full of UHT milk
The UK population as a cohort is different to other countries - hygiene habits, travel patterns, level of contact with elderly relatives etc and healthcare systems vary hugely in their ability to case find and treat.
There are several places where the level of contagion and spread in the UK can be monitored to give an indication of the likely impact here. I’ve two schools locally where some of the first infections in the UK were picked up 9 days ago and public health are monitoring for any further cases. 5 days is the peak for incubation so it’s interesting and so far reassuring there hasn’t been a local spike of confirmed cases here yet. Both schools have reopened this week BTW.
All the local public health Drs I’ve talked to recently are doing what they have spent years training to do (as long as any other hospital consultant) and taking a measured and data driven approach which will inform their advice to schools, employers, hospitals etc to slow the spread down as best as possible; in part a standard approach to an epidemic and an iterative one.
I'm looking forward to the episode of jackass where they intentionally catch the virus to see how bad it is
Re. The numbers in the U.K., it takes 24-48hrs for a test rest doesn't it? So mondays and today's numbers are largely based on tests done over the weekend. I expect fewer people get tested over the weekend, so we might see larger up spike tomorrow
I'm quietly and mildly panicking- not really for myself but for relatives who are older / have health issues. There is a case in my parents village. Am working at home more and going to pubs/cafes less! Would happily have a bit of enforced lock down - especially as the weather forecast is nice for next week!
How’s anyone going to enforce any kind of lockdown in this country?
We’ve had successive governments for decades telling us theirs no such thing as society, it’s all about the individual and you can do whatever you want, whenever you want. It’s your birthright
Good luck with telling everyone they need to stay in the house for the next couple of weeks.
Never going to happen. Not when the pubs are open. And if they shut all the Spoons the country will be in flames in minutes
We also seem to have a government that doesn’t really seem particularly arsed about any of this
Particularly as we seem to have a government that doesn’t really seem that arsed about any of this
It's known as the Eton Care Pathway or Eton Spaff for short.
Good luck with telling everyone they need to stay in the house for the next couple of weeks.
Never going to happen
Are you suggesting it will follow the Brexit trajectory, half the people do half don't the half that do get a bit hacked off and decide 80:20 are odds they like. Suddenly it's sod it we'll damn well infect and have done.
I'd hope we'd have a bit more sense that that. Although I'm a bit concerned the sheer relentless tedium of stand up and go again again again will be tough on people. Maybe it's time operation Be Nice Say Hi and we experiment with 'nice days' on the forum. Long disruption isnt going to be good for the general national mental health.
I’ve said before if it becomes a Pandemic it’ll reduce cynicism in the UK by 50% in a year through Darwinism.
Re. The numbers in the U.K., it takes 24-48hrs for a test rest doesn’t it?
Brother Pondo went skiing in Northern Italy at half term and came back feeling ill - called 111 on the 1st of March, got swabbed last Monday, got the all clear on Thursday.
Just stepping outside of our bog rolls and pasta cretinocracy for a minute.
Has anyone done any forecasting or modelling of what happens if this hits sub saharan africa in a big way?
Crowded cities and towns, large numbers of people immuno suppressed by diet, conditions or HIV etc. Poorer testing and care services than Europe into the bargain.
Just a thought...
It's 20 odd degrees in Tangiers all week, I'd imagine if we're hoping to get to summer to suppress the virus, and mid 20's is typical summer weather here, then they should be okay?.
I can highly recommend a 1 hour 29 minute interview with Michael Osterholm on Joe Rogan (YouTube).
Key points
# virus spreads before symptoms appear
# 1 to 2% mortality rate likely (iirc)
# 3-7 months of spreading of the virus from now on
# obese people will be hit harder so bigger impact on the US from a mortality rate perspective.
# warmer weather will not stop the spread (see MERS, whichever is the camel one , eg it was hot in Egypt when spreading ).
Michael T. Osterholm is a public health scientist and a biosecurity and infectious disease expert in the United States.[1] Osterholm is the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota and a Regents Professor, the McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health, a Distinguished Teaching Professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, a professor in the Technological Leadership Institute, College of Science and Engineering, and an adjunct professor in the University of Minnesota Medical School,[2] all at the University of Minnesota.[3] He is also on the Board of Regents at Luther College in Decorah, Iowa.[4]
Has anyone done any forecasting or modelling of what happens if this hits sub saharan africa in a big way?
The median age in Italy is 45.
In parts of Africa it’s 19.
I don’t know what that means about the survivability of this but it perhaps suggests it won’t affect 3rd world countries as disproportionately as you might be imagining.
The importance of doing everything we can to flatten the curve is highlighted. If your health service is overwhelmed, mortality goes up sharply.
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1237442793242591234
Health minister tested positive.
Really?!
That's shocking.
Nadine Dorries was given a ministerial job?
So presumably Matt Hancock and whoever sat on the front benches near her will need to self-isolate as well?
watching the Cheltenham Festival on TV today (not extensively, just on in the bar I popped into) and I'm thinking UK has no real concept of behaving differently, until it's too late.
Really?!
Yes. And even if you think she’s a bit of an idiot politically, she was a nurse, so not ignorant when it comes to staying safe as regards this.
until it’s too late
That looks like the government policy.
She's 62... Might not be pleasant depending upon her general health.
Surreal stuff.
Let's hope that mad Nad has been cosying up to johnson.
In other news....Trump says virus will go away; who needs medical experts?
I feel so re-assured by the orange buffoon.
It's a bit of a bummer when 'moving through the population' means your colleagues and workplace. Still, I'm sure Boris will take it on the chin.
Nadine Dories felt ill but did a constituency meeting anyway
Pretty crazy she's a health minister, that's as mad as Chris grayling being put in charge of the nation's security apparatus
https://twitter.com/davidschneider/status/1237507987012571136?s=20
Didn't I read something from a minister in the last week or so about them 'not tolerating people attempting to profit on the back of this'? At the end of last year I bought a litre of isopropyl alcohol for £5.89.Today,from the same supplier, same amount they're asking £25!
If that story is true, wtf does Grayling have on johnson?
Grayling has proved his incompetence and ineptitude in every gov post he held; being
shoe-horned onto the Intelligence and Security Committee is bad enough but being mooted to chair it??
He's a yes man and true believer. That's all BJ and Cum need/want.
Anyway...this is ot.
Point is that our PM rewards loyalty over intelligence
I'm not sure this bodes well for anything, including handling corona
just on in the bar I popped into
I’m thinking UK has no real concept of behaving differently
True 🙂
Coming back from a ride on Saturday I got chatting to an Italian friend about how Europe would cope compared to Asia, and from our own experiences, Hong Kong with COVID-19.
Based on being married to a local, most HKers tend to be very clean, I am sure those who have visited overt he years have had to get used to using the shared chopstick and the personal chopstick when in restaurants, one for picking the food and placing in your bowl/plate and the other set for the act of eating it. As soon as it looked like it was spreading from across the border people started to up their game, masks went on (typically only worn when you feel ill to stop the spread) and the usual mass gatherings of family and friends got severely curtailed. People basically took it upon themselves to start acting appropriately to ensure the spread was minimized (not all but the vast majority) and even going as far as to protest to get the government to close the Chinese border, no real effort getting people on board with this I suppose based on the previous 6 months of 'troubles' but it did stop the medical services being overrun (out of the first 12 diagnosed cases, 11 were Chinese who made a run for the border when they realized they were ill). Luckily its been contained to a point here, sadly with 3 deaths now but we are now starting to see signs of things switching back and I expect come April we should be getting back to normal, well normal as the previous 6 months of rioting left us.
There is of course the financial impact, a lot people here are just accepting that they need to take unpaid leave as companies just cannot afford to continue operating at the previous rate (the majority of Cathay staff for example are now on 3 weeks unpaid leave), this has helped mitigate some of the worst financial implications, it will be interesting to see how Europe copes, or doesn't with that choice.
I'm due at my sisters 50th this weekend in Luton. Looking at 25-30 people in a 4 bed house... I'm sitting wondering about the wisdom of it.... Do we, don't we...
I don't want to be harsh, but, well, it's just a birthday thing.... Hmmmmm.
It’s a bit of a bummer when ‘moving through the population’ means your colleagues and workplace.
Au contrere mon brave, just the top down, leading-from-the-front approach we expect from a government in a crisis...
The thing I don't understand is ... who drinks that much milk anyway?
Health Minister has it, might have given it to Boris!
Should be fun watching this evolve through the day!
Should be fun watching this evolve through the day!
Why ? Why will it be fun ?
lol i get your point monster yes.... But it's not really about whether the social aspect of it is great or not... I can accept that side of it, i was thinking more about under the current circumstances whether i'm getting a bit hysterical by debating bailing really. But i don't want to offend.... but then again, i'd like to keep my chances of dropping dead to a minimum too i guess.
Nadine Dorries held a surgery in her Mid Bedfordshire constituency on Saturday, which was attended by 50 people. So, how come if she wasn't ill enough on Saturday to avoid spreading her 'knowledge', she's now 'over the worst' (according to her own tweet)? Is it just a 3 day thing for most people? And if it's only a 3 day thing, how come she got tested? Is it one rule for them and one rule for the rest of us plebs..
10% of cases need mechanical ventilation in ICU in Italy.
Nationally we have around 70k of these. After they are all in use people will die.
The twitter posts of some Lombardy doctors yesterday was very sobering. Our health service should be clearing out all elective surgery patients and not re-admitting anyone except for emergency cases.
We're in for a rough ride and the health service personnel will take the brunt.
While we're all gloating over Ms Dorries infection spare a thought for her mother of 84 who is in the same house and is probably not in a happy place right now.
Bank of England drops interest rates to help. Arse, I wish I’d predicted Coronavirus before agreed a new 5 year term on my mortgage!
in other news one of our local shops told us they refused a delivery of antibacterial hand gel the other day because the supplier had tripled the price. Bloody pirates!
Who the **** goes looking on a cycling forum for facts about a highly contagious virus?
In fairness, where do you go?
My wife spent hours on the phone yesterday to PHE and DoE as a pupil at her school may have had contact
His grandparents came back from Singapore over the weekend and spent time with the family. Yesterday the Grandpops and the mother have flu-ish symptoms.
After hours being batted from PHE to DoE, the word is "carry on as normal until a definite case is diagnosed"
When can the ill people be tested? Next Monday!
It would make sense for the kid to stay off school for a few days but that isn't the advice. Bad news for any one at school with any other issues, maybe?
In the meantime, Dad works in a food manufacturer and has been told to stay home. Just in case.
Anti bacterial hand gel really isn't much use against a virus.
Anti bacterial hand gel really isn’t much use against a virus.
If it has a sufficiently high alcohol content (70%+), then yes, it is.
so only 18 years to test the whole country (assuming you only need testing once cos you know once you're tested you can't catch it!) impressive :/
It would make sense for the kid to stay off school for a few days but that isn’t the advice
Can’t you use your common sense without waiting for someone else to tell you? The risk you run is infect half the school.
Whew, the Express is saying the NHS is ready. Something to look forward to, alongside that barbecue summer and Princess Di's killers being brought to justice.
Can’t you use your common sense
Why does PHE not have any?
Why not just have some simple guidelines for all?
One of the first anti bacterial heels I found on Amazon has this:
It contains an odour neutralising fragrance with a clean and refreshing scent and top notes of apple and mandarin, floral Jasmine, violet and musk.
And a very long list of ingredients, none of which are alcohol.
the Express
think you'll find that it's the Boris Bugle these days
In fairness, where do you go?
NHS or PHE just because it didn’t give the advice you hoped for doesn’t mean it’s wrong.
The bit I am interested in is the potential demographic changes that could come out of this. Basically if Boris does nothing he will kill off a large part of his core voters and a large proportion of the tory party membership.
so only 18 years to test the whole country (assuming you only need testing once cos you know once you’re tested you can’t catch it!) impressive :/
That’s the Expess you’re quoting. Don’t worry the worst winter in 60 years will kill off the virus.
@weeksy - rolleyes smilie didn't work, it's going to be one giant cluster **** for the rest of the year at least. (No smilie missing)
I hope there are enough ventilators in country for those that need it.
I hope there are enough ventilators in country for those that need it.
but they've underlined "
- We're Ready
"
And a very long list of ingredients, none of which are alcohol.
Is it marketed as a sanitizer gel or a handwash/soap? Normally the ones with decent alcohol content are labelled as the former of those.
Basically if Boris does nothing he will kill off a large part of his core voters and a large proportion of the tory party membership.
....and his elderly boss, with whom he was in Westminster Abbey very recently.
The general UK population is probably not in a place where serious measures would be adhered too. There aren’t enough Police to enforce anything, which leaves you with very few options.
I think Government will likely have to to wait for it go to ***+ first.
So my school has cancelled Parents Eves for the next few weeks which I sort of understand, but almost all the parents live with their kids so the kids come in with their pathogens anyway and then sneeze on me, cant help think if parents are at risk if they come in what about the kids and teachers.....
Is it marketed as a sanitizer gel or a handwash/soap? Normally the ones with decent alcohol content are labelled as the former of those.
Anti Bacterial Hand Wash.
Actually there _is_ some alcohol in there, but it's way down the list after salt and citric acid.
It claims to kill 99.9% of bacteria, but the ingredients all seem to just be soap and water.
It claims to kill 99.9% of bacteria
Bacteria are not the problem. You want something that kills viruses. (Virii?)
Anti Bacterial Hand Wash.
Actually there _is_ some alcohol in there, but it’s way down the list after salt and citric acid.
It claims to kill 99.9% of bacteria, but the ingredients all seem to just be soap and water.
Two points:
As above, if you're out and about and you need sanitizer because you don't have access to water, this ain't it. You need something with at least 70% alcohol content
If you have access to handwashing facilities, and want to use this as soap, that's fine, but normal soap will be just as effective. The important thing is the mechanical action of scrubbing your hands for 20-30 seconds with soap.
It's soap. Soap is effective at disrupting viruses and bacteria- this includes coronavirus.
It's not a hand sanitiser that you use without water- which needs the high % of alcohol to effectively kill viruses.
more info: https://www.marke****ch.com/story/deadly-viruses-are-no-match-for-plain-old-soap-heres-the-science-behind-it-2020-03-08 (OK, it's not Nature or NatSci, but it's decent science).
but the ingredients all seem to just be soap and water.
Soap is very effective, something to do with lipids and the outside of the cell being broken. There is a thread on Twitter that explains it all
https://twitter.com/pallithordarson/status/1236549305189597189?s=21
A mate works for one of the big media agencies in that there London. They've put everything in place and this Friday they're trialing everyone in the business, throughout the country, working from home. Offices not even open.
Anyone else hear of similar? Seems like a sensible idea if you're the kind of business that can do it (ie: not making cars)
I think the NHS and PHE advice, albeit not 100% satisfactory to many including me, is proportionate as they need to allocate resources where they are most needed.
I went through the 111.NHS questionnaire yesterday and it is clearly focusing on people who have been to infected areas, or those who have had been in contact with people who have tested positive for Covid-19. There are so many uncertainties around those criteria but they have to start somewhere and focus on emergency care for those most in need.
So in my case, the overweight bloke in his late 40s who has a nasty viral thing and a killer headache for 5 days and has recently returned from skiing in France on a plane full of coughing and sneezing people but is otherwise in good health, I am not a priority to them. It's logical. I could have it, I could equally have badger flu or CAT AIDS.
With any measure/system/process there is a conceptual "line in the sand" and people will fall on both sides of it. That's just life.
Without being political this is once again clearly demonstrating how wonderful the NHS is, the dedication of the staff and the fact that it's free at the point of service is going to save lives (as usual).
Thanks to all the NHS staff who are involved.
Point is that our PM rewards loyalty over intelligence
I’m not sure this bodes well for anything, including handling corona
The point is that he's utterly useless and can be 100% trusted not to hold this government or its intelligence operations to any meaningful level of scrutiny, unless he does it by mistake. He's actually found his niche.
Man City / Arsenal game tonight cancelled on the basis that 'a number of' Arsenal players were exposed to the owner of Olympiakos, who has since tested positive, 13 days ago. They are in self-imposed isolation for 14 days from the day of exposure, so can't play tonight, but would have been okay if the match were tomorrow. It seems understandable, but arbitrary. In the mean time they've played two domestic matches.
So, how come if she wasn’t ill enough on Saturday to avoid spreading her ‘knowledge’, she’s now ‘over the worst’ (according to her own tweet)?
Probably a homeopathic "cure" of hers.
@weeksy - I'd be skipping that. I think actually the govt should move to the first part of the 'delay' phase and, while not actively banning, give firm guidelines that unless absolutely necessary people don't travel for more than 2hrs from home. Not much of a hardship, but would slow the rate of spread about the country.
Seems there is a 'super spreader' in Wales, the person that had it in Neath has infected 7 others in the Swansea and Neath areas.
NHS or PHE just because it didn’t give the advice you hoped for doesn’t mean it’s wrong.
That's defensive bollocks
They didn't have any advice. They didn't know what to say. They suggested going to other depts to ask but had no clear policy or even a consistent message.
"Try ringing 111" Where do they get their policies from?
Now we have a government minister who has acquired the virus without any travel to an affected region or contact with a known case, I imagine the advice will be changing soon.
For my part, self-isolate and stay at home if you have fever/cough seems completely logical now, test or no test.
Light-touch from govt. is consistent with what Sir Patrick Vallance said on Monday (from Guardian)-
"Vallance said the aim of the measures to be introduced by the government would be to lower the mortality rate of those in the at-risk group by 20 to 30%. But he said it would be wrong to try to “suppress” the disease completely because it could result in a winter outbreak at a time of maximum pressure for the NHS. He said:
"What you can’t do is suppress this thing completely, and what you shouldn’t do is suppress it completely because all that happens then is it pops up again later in the year when the NHS is at a more vulnerable stage in the winter and you end up with another problem.""
this Friday they’re trialing everyone in the business, throughout the country, working from home. Offices not even open.
Anyone else hear of similar?
we did that last Friday
But ..... by winter you'd hope someone out of the clever scientific lot may have a cure/antidote/solution ?
But ….. by winter you’d hope someone out of the clever scientific lot may have a cure/antidote/solution ?
Vaccine is still an absolute minimum of 12 months away.
Anyone else hear of similar?
Three of our UK offices are closed today for contingency and preparedness tests for mass home-working. Pending the outcome we've been told to expect a full shut down next week. The message is that it's a preemptive action, rather than waiting for confirmed infections. Shits hitting the fan isn't it?
In other news I came down with a 'cold' last night so I'm not going back in til it's all over. Must try not to get distracted by bike washing, the massive list of mechanical stuff to do, or binge-watching netflix.
For my part, self-isolate and stay at home if you have fever/cough seems completely logical now, test or no test.
Agreed.
I heard of someone who has had a dry cough, fever and aches and pains after returning from abroad, who phoned 111 and was told 'if you haven't got bad diarrhoea then you havent got coronavirus so you can carry on as normal. They are self isolating as a precaution. I've not heard diarrhoea being quoted as a needed symptom though, seems differnet to all other advice out there.
Has it been admitted that ND didnt have any previous contact or travel history? In which case why did she get tested? I wonder if there is a shortage of test kits.
In other news I came down with a ‘cold’ last night so I’m not going back in til it’s all over.
I did wonder why you daft bastards were still out riding on Monday night, given the torrential conditions
Suddenly it all becomes clear 😉
Has it been admitted that ND didnt have any previous contact or travel history?
I was being charitable and assumed she'd been doing a photo op in a hospital with a sick patient