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As we go into this new phase I get the impression that it’s a shrinking minority who believe in it now.
Polls suggest you are wrong. There a vocal minority complaining about rules being too tough too soon… the majority in all samples say the opposite. The government is lagging behind public sentiment again. They are stuck between acting based on the lessons they learnt earlier this year, and the sentiment of many their own MPs who don’t believe in such evidence based policy as a rule.
June: Go to the pub
July : Go to work at the office, buy a coffee on the way.
July: Go on holiday.
July: You don't need to wear a mask. Until 10 days time, when it's essential.
August: Go out for dinner, we’ll pay half.
September: Go back to school, it's perfectly safe.
September: It's not safe for you to meet more than 6 people. After this weekends caning, obvs.
September: If people don't follow the rules, we'll have a second wave.
Added a few.
Clearly you didn't bother to read the follow-up post...
Yeah, I hope everyone saw it was meant to be humorous.
Ah...............
I didn't laugh though.
Ergo, it wasn't funny.
Wow! You come across as an utter ****.
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">That is the most odious piece of drivel I’ve read in a long time</span>
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">Blame the elderly for the laziness and stupidity of youth and all the worlds ills</span>
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">If you “think” the elderly have “shat” upon the young, then you need to take your head for a “shart”</span>
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">Jesus. No wonder everyone hates you</span>
Actually dude there was a bit of research done back end of last year which proves the baby boomers and older were more financially stable than their current counterparts. Fact is these days it's harder to get a job, saving rates are awful, rents crazy expensive and owning a house is an absolute pipe dream for the majority.
Btw, no need to get personal at the end.
<edit>
Wow! You come across as an utter ****.
That is the most odious piece of drivel I’ve read in a long time.
Blame the elderly for the laziness and stupidity of youth and all the worlds ills.
If you “think” the elderly have “shat” upon the young, then you need to take your head for a “shart”.
Jesus. No wonder everyone hates you.
For balance, I thought he was spot-on..... whereas your posts just made you sound like a edited. That post exactly nails why young people (legitimately) feel the way about boomers that they do - and that wont change whether you believe it or not.
I'm neither a boomer nor young person - and I can't see anything in that which isn't objectively true. And he didn't even mention Brexit! Enjoying the benefits of the single market, and then voting to deny young people those same benefits for absolutely no reason at all? For what? Casual racism and xenophobia, and some kind of wierd nostalgic nationalism? Can't blame them really
Paint the cross on the door mrs anagallis test is positive 😟
I thought P-Jays piece was thought provoking and well written and I will be sharing it with one or two people who I think will disagree but who knows it might make them think?
Paint the cross on the door mrs anagallis test is positive
Gah - sorry to hear that mate. How many of you in the house? Have you all been tested too?
I thought PJay’s post was pretty subdued really.
Today’s youth is being expected to sacrifice their youth to save the generation that has benefited from free education, cheap housing and decent pensions and pulled up the drawbridge after them whilst expecting the youth to pay the bill.
And they’ve created a climate crisis (that will impact on the youth, not them) and forced the country into an act seppuku and voted in a bunch of lying fanatics without a thought for said youth.
Quite frankly I’m surprised that it’s just ‘**** you’ instead of why don’t you just **** off and die now, please...
Best hope then youth don’t get properly political!
Gah – sorry to hear that mate. How many of you in the house? Have you all been tested too?
Me, mrs and son. Strange it happend when schools went back, thought they were covid safe. Both teachers, boy at school. Boy and I not tested, he's fine. I am rough as a badgers arse but no covid specific symptoms. Quite scary given the talk about people getting tested with no symptoms, I have a bad cold so does mrs, was convinced and still was when her smell went.
Good news is we are not that ill!
Good news is we are not that ill!
Yes, good news indeed: long may that continue.
Assuming that you all have it - what happens now then with the school? Does everyone you've had contact with get tested? Teachers, staff etc?
Here (Aus) I think the school would immediately shut until everyone had a test, and results came back
I thought P Jays post was good too tbh
Another +1 to p-jay's post. Of course it isn't suggesting we kill our grannies but there's more than a grain of truth in there about the selfishness of the older generation.
And he's not the one who comes across as the **** in that exchange either
Sorry to hear that AA, I wish you all well and hope Mrs AA gets to a quick and full recovery.
On the subject of vindication against old people, do people really think they all sat around doing it on purpose? I suspect the majority went on just living with what they’ve got, or trying to work to fit their definition of success, I doubt the majority sat at home deliberately planning to influence the outcome of their grandchildren in a negative way.
I took a view on Pj’s post that it was a retrospective view of the world, and sure if your now sitting in your house in Surrey sipping a brandy at 75 moaning at that young upstart Ashley Banjo you deserve both of Pj’s barrels, but there are also some lonely dementia ridden people in homes watching their savings drip away, not being visited by their family whilst hearing the news that are the most likely to die of a resurgent COVID-19. Can’t be pleasant.
I chuckled.
AA the secondary attack rate is about 25% within a household. Self isolate and wear a mask to serve the breakfast in bed. Hope she recovers fast and you don’t catch it.
On the plus side and based on the book I noted in lunges thread, I’ve added a big bag of liquorice all sorts for Sunday. Sunday is the first day of my “rest” month from training and the little racing I’ve been doing, so following a final race on Saturday (probably) I’m going to have a lazy day with coffee in the morning, beer during the afternoon and stuffing my face with liquorice allsorts during the F1.
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">
Also going for my first night ride next Thursday with my new Exposure kit.</span>
I’m going for the method of creating little personal pockets of sunshine and hope to look forward to over the next six months to counter any negativity.
Kryton.... you're our little pocket of sunshine
Assuming that you all have it – what happens now then with the school? Does everyone you’ve had contact with get tested? Teachers, staff etc?
Nope, no one does owt at my school, I'm just a contact and at wifes school the assumption is teachers are distanced. So is summary our schools carry on all is fine!
AA the secondary attack rate is about 25% within a household. Self isolate and wear a mask to serve the breakfast in bed.
Might be a bit late for that!!
Yawn.
People are never going to understand this are they DazH.
its not about not being able to understand it its how DazH thinks its something so simple to do. If its so simple why don't you explain to us all. One of you can't claim its simple then say people will never understand it. if its so simple and will help solve this crisis im sure DazH will be able to convince the world to do it.
Here (Aus) I think the school would immediately shut until everyone had a test, and results came back
Correction, the school shuts while contact tracing is done. Anyone defined as being in close contact with the case has to self isolate for 14 days. I'm assuming that's all class mates for an infected pupil, and all pupils for an infected teacher. Although I suppose it depends on the school - might be a whole year group.
Wow! You come across as an utter ****.
That is the most odious piece of drivel I’ve read in a long time.
Blame the elderly for the laziness and stupidity of youth and all the worlds ills.
If you “think” the elderly have “shat” upon the young, then you need to take your head for a “shart”.
Jesus. No wonder everyone hates you.
That was a nasty and unnecessary response.
While the post was intended to be a humourous way to make people think, the fact is, for the last 20 years pensioners have received a lot of additional support - free bus travel, free TV licenses, triple lock on pensions through austerity. Many of them needed that support, but a lot didn't. It wasn't targeted based on need, and if you were cynical you could argue it was done by governments of all colours to shore up the grey vote.
And it's those who didn't need the support who are often the most vocal when it is under threat. The ones who complain that the savings that they are lucky enough to have built up aren't getting them any interest, but begrudge using them to pay for the social care that they think that they are entitled to that their own parents didn't get. Who aren't happy at paying taxes to pay for the NHS treatment their age means that they require, or that support their children who are losing their jobs now, and their grandchildren who are losing their education.
Anyway, enough about my parents..... 😉
Blame the elderly for the laziness and stupidity of youth and all the worlds ills.
If you “think” the elderly have “shat” upon the young, then you need to take your head for a “shart”.
sounds like a typical baby boomer. You might as well say the reason we cant all afford houses is we spend too much time on holiday not doing "real work" eating avo on toast.
I took a view on Pj’s post that it was a retrospective view of the world, and sure if your now sitting in your house in Surrey sipping a brandy at 75 moaning at that young upstart Ashley Banjo you deserve both of Pj’s barrels, but there are also some lonely dementia ridden people in homes watching their savings drip away, not being visited by their family whilst hearing the news that are the most likely to die of a resurgent COVID-19. Can’t be pleasant.
I don’t think anyone wants a Generational battle.
My post isn’t about one generation pissing on another and in turn that generation trying to kill them indirectly.
I supposed I’m trying to empathise with young adults who are already being set up as the villain in Covid.
They’ve had a pretty shit start in adult life, and it’s not like they don’t know why.
The Great Recession hurt their education, Brexit is loathed by young people more than any other demographic and now we’re destroying what little job security and hopes for the future they might have.
Your stereotypical 23 year old has known nothing but recession, austerity and Brexit since they started High School.
Think back to any time a young person has dared to complain about the shut hand they were dealt? It’s the same old bullshit, they’re ‘entitled’ it’s all Snapchat and iPads and they’re lazy.
Now, here comes 2020 and Covid, the day lock down was announced hundreds of thousands of them were fired - no redundancy, no discussion just “get out” which gave them a great idea of how they’re valued by older people. Many of them got their jobs back through furlough but it didn’t change the fact they know they’re dispensable.
Despite all that it seemed by and large their generation aren’t the ones protesting lockdown, I think it’s more of a case of it’s ‘other people’s problems’. Humans do stuff that hurts other people all the time without a moments pause or hesitation.
And that's another thing the youth of today are guilty of... lazy stereotyping.
And the predicted end of furlough (I'm speculating) redundancies have started.
6k jobs to go at Whitbread/premier Inn....
I guess a fallout from zoom and working from home as even their July figures were shocking.
BBC News - Whitbread to cut 6,000 jobs as hotel demand slumps
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54246403
And the redundancys have started.
They started a few months back, sadly, this is just the latest
For the likes of Premier Inn, I wonder how much they rely on business travel. The (new) one near us has been rammed over summer but that's leisure.
I like it when the normally soft and cuddly STW sticks the knife into a group of people they really hate.
Its quite life affirming to realise everybody really is full of prejudice, despite how much they might protest otherwise.
Makes me feel a lot more cheerful about my own character flaws.
They started a few months back
Not really, companies only needed to notify those on furlough this month. It'll be a wave of redundancies over the next 6months or so as companies readjust again.
For the likes of Premier Inn, I wonder how much they rely on business travel.
From my experience over 10yrs of company traveling and staying with them (my employer had a buisness rate with them), I'd say at least 80% at every site, some close to 100%. At least Monday to Friday. Weekends (Fri and sat night) are almost always a cheaper rate which shows their clientele.
On the morning Teams call, there's 10 of us scattered around various outlying bits of Manchester. No-one has a clue about what restrictions apply to them - there's chat about Rule of Six, a joke about "yes but if we're all carrying shotguns, we can find another 24 people", stuff about pubs closing at 10 and a joke about getting all the shots in at 9pm...
I think it was touched on in the "what's the point..?" thread but we need some absolutely clear messaging about the end game, the absolute rules - not ones that can be worked around with a degree of loophole jumping - and instead we're getting vacuous slogans, no explanations and a feeling that Government are winging it (they probably are but they could at least try to look like they know what they're doing...)
Raiod 4 now Life scientific Neil Ferguson
Slight change of tack - what are people's thoughts on getting the flu jab?
I noticed my local pharmacy offering appointment free jabs for £12.50.
Seems like an idea to get it out of the way, if only to try and reduce chances of confusing flu/Covid later down the line.
Does it lay you out at all, can you keep training/riding after the jab or do you need to take it easy for a week or two?
I like it when the normally soft and cuddly STW sticks the knife into a group of people they really hate.
Its quite life affirming to realise everybody really is full of prejudice, despite how much they might protest otherwise.
Makes me feel a lot more cheerful about my own character flaws.
While i do agree with you I feel harrythephot issue is he cant't think objectively about why younger people are like why should I care - also the fact the gov' have told them it will just be a bad cold for them. My parents are baby boomers step dad brought his first home for under 10k in wales, has a decent pension, house paid off and all that. It sounds like poor me but older people constantly tell us we don't know how easy we have it, but I would trade some tech for an interest rate thats a little better than 0.05% so I don't have to work till I die.
Does it lay you out at all,
Depends, some years nothing, other years a sore arm, other years a sore arm and feeling like shite later in the day. Normally fine next day, get an appointment at lunchtime and prepare to spend the evening slobbing around.
Slight change of tack – what are people’s thoughts on getting the flu jab?
I have one every year, in fact mine is booked for this Sunday....
Sometimes feel like crap the next day or so some times not.
My daughter had the live vaccine, squirt up nose job, at the weekend. She felt pretty bad on Monday but is fine now.
and instead we’re getting vacuous slogans, no explanations and a feeling that Government are winging it (they probably are but they could at least try to look like they know what they’re doing…)
I mean its almost like we have a "leader" whos known as not a details man and for constant u-turns. Just look at today for example few weeks ago it was go to work and save pret now its stay at home work from home if you can... It boggles my mind that people actually think he could do a better job ad running the country than JC.
One of you can’t claim its simple then say people will never understand it. if its so simple and will help solve this crisis im sure DazH will be able to convince the world to do it.
Yawn. Actually got a point to make about why they couldn't support businesses and employees instead of pointless pedantry? Seeing as the solution myself and rone talk aboout is *already in place* perhaps you'd like to explain to us why they don't use it? The reason its not difficult is because that's the way it already works. What I don't understand is why people such as yourself willingly accept the blatant untruth that 'we can't afford it'. We can afford it because we can create our own money. As rone says the only limitation to doing that is the productive capacity of our economy, and I think we'd all agree that there's plenty of slack in that right now.
As a practical solution though, how about this. There are hundreds of thousands of people, perhaps millions, twiddling their thumbs right now. Instead of dumping them on the dole, how about we put them to work caring for and supporting people affected by covid, beefing up the testing system where possible, building new hospitals and health centres, building community networks to help people and businesses cope with the virus and mitigations against it and a whole host of other things that I can't think of right now.
There's a huge opportunity right now to build strong communities who can come together to tackle local and national problems. We're going to need them to fight covid, to rebuild the economy afterwards, and to deal with future crises like a no deal brexit and climate change. Why aren't we doing it?
On the morning Teams call, there’s 10 of us scattered around various outlying bits of Manchester. No-one has a clue about what restrictions apply to them
Yip. I think that's how everyone in the North West is feeling. Its been compounded by the fact that we can see the figures and areas are being put under restrictions that have far lower infection rates than those that aren't
It makes absolutely no logical sense whatsoever.
They appear to be making it up as they go along. Sketching it out on the back of a fag packet.
Remember that a few weeks ago Matt Hancock lifted restrictions on a couple of areas of Greater Manchester with absolutely no consultation with anyone, Andy Burnham had to tell everyone to ignore government guidelines as infection rates were still really high in those areas, then Matt Hancock reversed his decision 12 hours later.
The whole thing is an absolute farce. Small business owners in Greater Manchester are absolutely tearing their hair out at the whole sorry shambles
As a practical solution though, how about this. There are hundreds of thousands of people, perhaps millions, twiddling their thumbs right now. Instead of dumping them on the dole, how about we put them to work caring for and supporting people affected by covid, beefing up the testing system where possible, building new hospitals and health centres, building community networks to help people and businesses cope with the virus and mitigations against it and a whole host of other things that I can’t think of right now.
Because much as the Government would like you to believe that these are "low-skilled" jobs, they're not. And I suspect, given the total ****-up in terms of employing Contact Tracers, many of whom are literally being paid to sit there watching Netflix, that Government has neither the resources nor any sort of clue in how to mobilise this theoretical volunteer workforce.
Yawn. Actually got a point to make about why they couldn’t support businesses and employees instead of pointless pedantry? Seeing as the solution myself and rone talk aboout is *already in place* perhaps you’d like to explain to us why they don’t use it?...
"Yawn" My only issue with what you have said is you claim it's "easy" and "simple" when fact is it isn't why can't you just admit that. There are huge logistical challenges in doing stuff like beefing up the testing system you make it seem like you click your fingers and its done.
As a practical solution though, how about this. There are hundreds of thousands of people, perhaps millions, twiddling their thumbs right now. Instead of dumping them on the dole, how about we put them to work caring for and supporting people affected by covid, beefing up the testing system where possible, building new hospitals and health centres, building community networks to help people and businesses cope with the virus and mitigations against it and a whole host of other things that I can’t think of right now.
I mean this basically sounds like a workers camp... but yeh what ever dude have a good day i got some pixels to push.
It makes absolutely no logical sense whatsoever
I agree with the lack of clarity... but locking down areas that border, or worse are surrounded by, areas with high levels of infection makes complete logical sense. People move between adjacent areas lots for work, shopping, school... and so minimising "unnecessary" extra contacts for a time is a wise procautionary measure. We should be taking such precautionary measures, if we want to avoid the late last minute panic approach we took earlier in the year.
But what happened to the 750,000 that volunteered to help out, way back in the spring?
Was that yet another headline grabbing idea that never materialized?
Low skill doesn't mean no skill and never has, its more skills that can be learned with little prerequisites in a relatively short period of time.
There is a hint of conscription about the idea of "put (people) them to work caring for and supporting people affected by covid". Conscription doesn't tend to work well because the people aren't engaged or maybe pre disposed to that rough sector of work.
I agree with the lack of clarity… but locking down areas that border, or worse are surrounded by, areas with high levels of infection makes complete logical sense.
I get that, but Matt Hancock lifted the restrictions on Trafford while it had pretty much the highest rising infection rate in the country, while leaving areas with far lower rates still under restrictions.
It seemed more to do with the fact that he had an extremely vocal Tory MP who was voicing the 'boo hoo... poor us... it's not fair' whining of his affluent Tory-voting constituents
it lasted less than 12 hours anyway
For the likes of Premier Inn, I wonder how much they rely on business travel.
Having been in direct contact with the finances of Travelodge, Holiday Inn and Future Inns in my old job it's a very big part of their business model. They rely on the income from suits travelling to meetings, other offices and travelling reps plus they have the income from the trades (electricians, plumbers etc) moving round the country as their base income. The extra from tourists and stop-overs is their profit base. It's why a lot of the hotels are located on main roads or just outside a town with no real attractions, they're there to hoover up the business travellers.
Slight change of tack – what are people’s thoughts on getting the flu jab?
I noticed my local pharmacy offering appointment free jabs for £12.50.
Seems like an idea to get it out of the way, if only to try and reduce chances of confusing flu/Covid later down the line.
Does it lay you out at all, can you keep training/riding after the jab or do you need to take it easy for a week or two?
I'll get mine pretty soon.
I've had flu twice it's appallingly bad and I ended up in Hospital with Pneumonia from it once, 5 years ago yesterday actually. Although that was my own fault, here's a tip, if you're ill (at any time, but especially now) rest, stay at home, take it easy. Don't go for a 'quick lap of Cwmcarn' because it's "only a cold" or you may get REALLY sick.
As one of the youngest Boomers this
They’ve had a pretty shit start in adult life, and it’s not like they don’t know why.
The Great Recession hurt their education, Brexit is loathed by young people more than any other demographic and now we’re destroying what little job security and hopes for the future they might have.
Your stereotypical 23 year old has known nothing but recession, austerity and Brexit since they started High School.
Think back to any time a young person has dared to complain about the shut hand they were dealt? It’s the same old bullshit, they’re ‘entitled’ it’s all Snapchat and iPads and they’re lazy.
is spot on.
We, as parents, are supporting our two as best we can to achieve property ownership but it's too little to be really effective. It's hard to encourage thrift when the reward for it is constantly moving out of reach.
My only issue with what you have said is you claim it’s “easy” and “simple” when fact is it isn’t why can’t you just admit that. There are huge logistical challenges in doing stuff like beefing up the testing system you make it seem like you click your fingers and its done.
You're completely missing the point. I"m talking about money not logistics. You said the government can't afford to prop up the economy. It can. How they use the money is a different thing, and I suggested a workable solution. The alternative is millions of people on the dole sitting idle when they'd rather be working. I really can't see why anyone would be opposed to this.
I mean this basically sounds like a workers camp
No they would be government funded community jobs. Advertised, recruited and appointed in the normal way. People wouldn't be forced into them, they would choose to do them, either permanently or on a temporary basis while their current jobs are on hold. Again, why would anyone be opposed to this?
There is a hint of conscription about the idea of “put (people) them to work caring for and supporting people affected by covid”.
See above.
You’re completely missing the point. I”m talking about money not logistics. You said the government can’t afford to prop up the economy.
So, you're saying financially its easy to do? Im talking practically logistically its hard I think we can both agree on that. The concept (aka moonshot) maybe easy but practically its something that would be very hard to do.
No they would be government funded community jobs. Advertised, recruited and appointed in the normal way. People wouldn’t be forced into them, they would choose to do them, either permanently or on a temporary basis while their current jobs are on hold. Again, why would anyone be opposed to this?
I mean thats not what you said initially but what ever.
No they would be government funded community jobs.
*Recommends DazH for a propaganda position in the CCP*
do people really think they all sat around doing it on purpose?
Yes. I know a couple whose younger family members explained that Brexit would be a major problem for their business activities and would the oldies kindly vote against. They voted Brexit. Their son-in-law's buisiness is about to fold due a combination of Brexit and Covid, the grandson working for a holiday company is unlikely to return to Greece next year, the granddaughter won't be working in France anymore, another grandson isn't affected but disappointed by the lack of vertical solidarity from the oldies - zero help with education or anything for that matter.
Covid and Brexit are revealing just how selfish the oldies are.
All the best to you and yours A-A, hope you all come through to teach another day.
Having been in direct contact with the finances of Travelodge, Holiday Inn and Future Inns in my old job it’s a very big part of their business model. They rely on the income from suits travelling to meetings, other offices and travelling reps plus they have the income from the trades (electricians, plumbers etc) moving round the country as their base income. The extra from tourists and stop-overs is their profit base. It’s why a lot of the hotels are located on main roads or just outside a town with no real attractions, they’re there to hoover up the business travellers.
I'm a very good customer of the above through work. Back in Feb / March booking a week ahead you could maybe get the odd room at £50, but more usually £60 - £80 and that would go up over the summer. I'm picking rooms up for £30 at the moment, and these are the better located hotels that used to be at the more expensive end.
Also Travelodges have generally closed their bar / restuarnt areeas that were normally busy. Premmier Inn are running really poor reduced menus in their restaurants (basically Steak, Fish n Chips or Curry but always they're short of stuff. So the menus is like Steak (no chips left), Fish (no peas or tartare sauce) and Curry with toast instead of nann. Their revenues must be way way down. I can imagine they must be getting near the point of mothballing sites for the winter.
I'd like to know the cost of this say against the Gulf War or indeed when we look back in three years the start up costs of Brexit. Before anyone jumps in that's without having an opinion on the relative merits of Brexit long term.
Technically not a boomer, but I do have a 23yo who went to work this morning at 07:30 to a minimum wage job as a Graduate Teaching Assistant. He has two degrees and a debt that he may or may not pay off. Of course having me as a father means he is rather informed on the pandemic. Poor sod! As for the younger one, well he's in a (party) bubble self-isolating in hall for another week until term starts. He's also had COVID19.
Long-term I view the economy as a zero sum game across the ages - the NS&I/premium bonds are signalling that already. Wealth redistribution will come, but pensions in the private sector mean more long-term saving will be needed from those starting work. As for Brexit - I think we have bigger, more pressing issues.
Low skill doesn’t mean no skill and never has, its more skills that can be learned with little prerequisites in a relatively short period of time.
Even higher skills could be learned in a relatively short space of time. It's clear that we're going to need much more hospital and health infrastructure in future, pehaps even a parallel health system dedicated to covid if a vaccine doesn't solve the problem. We could be planning and building that infrastructure now, and training the nurses and doctors ready for when they're built.
I do despair at the lack of vision displayed on here. It seems everything is too hard, too complicated, too expensive or whatever else. It's no wonder we're f***** as a country. Yes we have a useless government. Guess who voted them in?
Last time I checked (few weeks ago) the UK prevalence was around 6%.
Has that changed much of anything in the last few weeks?
As for Brexit – I think we have bigger, more pressing issues.
Such as? It's very pressing at present as there are a few weeks to come up with a deal and it conditions the UK's relationship with the rest of the continent for an indefinite period.
Wrong thread but I wasn't the one to bring Bexit into the Covid thread. I also think that the initial UK response to Covid was in part due to not taking what was happening in Europe seriously even though large numbers of Brits were skiing there. We'll be fine said someone earlier in this thread, we don't do all that kissing and hand shaking, that did make my eyes roll.
So, you’re saying financially its easy to do?
Yes, absolutely.
I mean thats not what you said initially but what ever.
I never specified the mechanism, you just assumed I meant forcing people to work.
*Recommends DazH for a propaganda position in the CCP*
Sigh. You do realise that the govt is by far the largest employer in the UK and somehow manages not to be a communist state?
Don't take my flippant reply too seriously, the language you used just entertained me.
I’d like to know the cost of this say against the Gulf War or indeed when we look back in three years the start up costs of Brexit. Before anyone jumps in that’s without having an opinion on the relative merits of Brexit long term.
Estimates are £260bn to £390bn, that's Furlough, lose of taxation, JSA, Hospitals, Nightingales, Vaccines etc etc. That's 'only' April 20 to April 21, so some more will be pre-April and there will be more post-April 21.
The estimated cost of Brexit is £200bn, but it's based on a reduction in GDP and not a direct cost for the Government. No one will ever really know how much it will cost, there's too much Politics for that.
The Gulf war cost £8.4bn between 2003 and 2009. The total cost of the 'war on terror' for the UK was £20bn.
If you wanted a 'big number' the cost of the Credit Crunch and resulting Great Recession was about £7 Trillion, but again that's a reduction in GDP and not a cost, although the direct cost to Tax Payers will be higher than Covid and Brexit combined.
The 'good' thing about the Covid cost is that the value of money is only relative to other nations / currencies, because pretty much every developed nation has spent a huge amount of it's GDP on Covid, the effect will be less pronounced than it might otherwise be. The nations who haven't had to spend huge amounts on it will do better - Australia did very well out the the Credit Crunch because it avoided it, I get the feeling they will do well out of Covid too - NZ will of course, but their economy is much smaller.
That's not to say it will benefit it's people, the last 10 years have seen a lot of inflation in Australia resulting in very high costs for essential goods.
Yes, absolutely.
As this point I don't understand why although financially its easy you can't admit logistically its not. Which makes it not as easy as you initially made out. Don't worry admitting you're not 100% right wont invalidate your point / argument.
...and my local rag reckons the panic buying has started again pictures of empty supermarket shelves where the bog roll should be. FFS
Last time I checked (few weeks ago) the UK prevalence was around 6%.
That is the prevalence of seroconversion - People who have previously raised antibodies against the pathogen. It has changed very little due to control of the epidemic, and is about 8% now (and may be waning slightly). About twice this value in London, a bit lower in the South West.
Prevalence of infection is much much lower - typically far below 1%. ONS records about 60/100,000 (0.06%) people infected at any one time. Incidence is the number of new cases per day. If one assumes a six-day infectious period then it is approximately 6x lower at 10/100,000 new cases per day (with much regional variation), equal to 6,000 new cases per day in England and Wales (60M people).
Data is here for reference
It has changed very little due to control of the epidemic, and is about 8% now (and may be waning slightly). About twice this value in London, a bit lower in the South West.
This is something i don't get TiRed how does region dictate percentage of people with the antibody or is just more people in london more people likely to have the antibody?
There have been a LOT more cases in London that the South West so the pathogen has burnt through about 3x the proportion of the population. Controls were implemented at the same time, but the epidemic was later in London than the South West, hence the difference in prevalence. Devon and Cornwall were two weeks behind London in March.
Looks like Munich, Germany's hot spot, is going back to harsher restrictions.
As of Thursday only 5 people allowed to meet up. Masks to be worn outside in certain parts of the city.
Pjay's post was good and sums up what a lot of my younger cousins are saying on fb.
I've mentioned from the start how ironic it is that I'm having to take a massive hit financially, watch the pennies and restrict my activities whilst those with solid pensions carry on more or less as normal.
…and my local rag reckons the panic buying has started again pictures of empty supermarket shelves where the bog roll should be. FFS
That started to happen the second the Caerphilly lockdown was announced in my local ones, empty shelves almost overnight. Home deliveries also doubled in size (all slots are usually full) and are full of bog roll, tissues, pasta, pet food, long-life milk and home baking ingredients. Thankfully it's just people doing big shops while in there rather than all-out panic but it's having an effect, making others do the same.
So @DazH wants the bank of England to print a big wedge of cash (magic the money out of the air) and inject it into the economy, without a similar output of product from the economy, infarct within an economic downturn....?
Its very simple why the gov can't do that, something called inflation.
Link
"Printing more money doesn’t increase economic output – it only increases the amount of cash circulating in the economy. If more money is printed, consumers are able to demand more goods, but if firms have still the same amount of goods, they will respond by putting up prices. In a simplified model, printing money will just cause inflation."
As this point I don’t understand why although financially its easy you can’t admit logistically its not.
Stop being pedantic man! Take a look back and you'll see I said it was easy for the government to prop up jobs and businesses during the pandemic. The mechanisms for providing the money and dstributing it already exist and are already being used. The debate about logistics is a completely separate one about how we spend that money in a more useful way to deal with the pandemic and other problems.
So what is exactly your point? That we can't afford it, or that it's too difficult to spend the money? Or both? Or that it's better to do nothing and allow the economy to collapse?
Its very simple why the gov can’t do that, something called inflation.
Inflation is only a danger when the economy is at it's full productive capacity, and we're currently a long way from that.
https://www.businessinsider.com/modern-monetary-theory-mmt-explained-aoc-2019-3?r=US&IR=T
The mechanisms for providing the money and dstributing it already exist and are already being used.
Sound point. The government found the methods to deliver support to companies and workers... they could now not only be extended/repeated, but improved upon, and the gaps and any areas of overspend fixed. So we're down to it being "unaffordable", which, in the short term (the next 12 months) it is not. Arguably, it will damage the economy more not to do so... especially as we can expect a serious of economic shocks not related to the health crisis in the coming year.
And then there's the issue of devaluation against the backdrop Brexit.
This is what I mean about the messaging:
What you get from a Government that relies on spin and distraction and glib phrases. I despair.
wants the bank of England to print a big wedge of cash (magic the money out of the air) and inject it into the economy, without a similar output of product from the economy, infarct within an economic downturn….?
The Gov did 'print' about £100bn at the start of the crisis, they will print more.
They could print about £1Tn, as you say it would cause massive inflation, but the cause of that / the flip-side is a devalued £.
If, DezH is of a socialist leaning, that may not be seen as a 'bad thing' it was pretty much as the core of the Corbyn plan for Brexit. Devalue the £ to encourage more production in the UK. We'd be relatively poorer, but with higher levels of employment and a smaller divide between rich and poor. They will of course mentioned highly skilled, well paid jobs, but it's not really easy to do that, even with our relatively high levels of education it would be a generational shift, much like the generational shift between the 70s and late 90s. A lot of pain in the meantime.
I know BJ has very few fans on STW, but look at the position he's found himself in.
He can't print money endlessly, see above, not practically, and certainly not as the Leader of Right leaning Tory Gov.
Borrowing is higher than ever, higher than even "the war" - 10 years of austerity only went so far, mostly it just stemmed the tide. There is a limit to how much we can borrow, we may be close to that limit, and the closer you get to it, the lower the limit gets because interest payments get higher.
The economy did bounce back pretty much inline with BOE projections through the summer, even though few expected it to be a straight line to the end of Covid. This meant the borrowing was a fixable problem.
A second, months long, national lockdown would be very, very difficult to pay for. Another couple of hundred billion in Furlough payments, because it simply will not work if they ask people to stay at home without assurances they'll keep their jobs. There's no way on earth people will look at a 0.05% chance of death as a good enough reason to lose "everything".
An extended Furlough scheme WILL mean Tax Rises, they might try austerity, but the public have little taste for it now, and there's the dreaded "B Word" honestly, if there was a chance the EU would allow it after all of this shit, I'm sure Boris would consider cancelling Brexit, such is the scale of the problem.
Plus, there's a good indication it just won't work, I stand by my claim that, even though most people might agree with the need, they only agree with the bits that don't affect them too much - the childless youngster will live with schools closing, the middle aged parent with pubs closing, the Elderly with both, but not Garden Centres and shops etc. The same people who clapped for carers will still visit their friends because "oh it's only a quick cuppa, and anyway, I'm sure I had Covid months ago" everyone's now got an excuse to do whatever they feel they "need" to do.
I've come to the conclusion the only plan left, is the first plan - we "flattened the curve" and we "protected the NHS" they're as ready now as they're ever going to be. It's terrible the vaccine hasn't come yet, but frankly the pace in which it has been developed is staggering, it's equally terrible Covid seems to refuse to become less lethal like SARS (although their is perhaps a chance it has). The only course of action left, is to shield the old and vulnerable, maximise social distancing in busy places and ride the storm until Spring / Mass vaccinations.
So what is exactly your point? That we can’t afford it, or that it’s too difficult to spend the money? Or both? Or that it’s better to do nothing and allow the economy to collapse?
My point is I simply picked at what I see as a flaw in your argument but you decided to be rude and a little condescending by starting your responses with yawns and claiming "they" will never understand. If it was so easy to boot the test program we wouldn't have the shortage we have now for example. But you do you dude.
@P-Jay my thoughts exactly, I just can't be arsed (or have the time) to write them out on here.
They could print about £1Tn, as you say it would cause massive inflation
Only if the economy is at full capacity with near to full employment. We don't know the figure it would take to get to that point, but clearly right now there is a lot of spare capacity and the danger is not inflation, but the opposite.
He can’t print money endlessly, see above, not practically
He can within the limits mentioned above.
There is a limit to how much we can borrow, we may be close to that limit, and the closer you get to it, the lower the limit gets because interest payments get higher.
There is no limit. What's the evidence for saying we're at the limit? Borrowing never stopped increasing since 2009 yet interest rates have remained at close to zero or even negative. It's a zero-sum game, public deficits represent private sector surpluses, which are then invested into the economy. Reducing the deficit reduces the ability of the private sector to invest. Running a surplus will actually remove money from the economy and reverse growth.
An extended Furlough scheme WILL mean Tax Rises
Tax rises will only be required to combat inflation if/when the economy hits the productive limit. They are not required to either 'pay back the debt' or provide public funds for spending. The debt will evaporate through inflation as has always been the case, or if inflation remains low it will simply persist, there really is no limit.
Sorry I know I'm banging on about this but these are all fallacies based on the assumption that the national finances are the same as a household's. They're not. Use whatever metaphor you like, but we don't have to operate within the conventional constraints of a 'national credit card' etc. The only reason we do is politics and vested interests. Instead of asking if the money tree exists, try asking why it's only used for a tiny select few purposes (like funding wars, bailing out banks etc) instead of improving things for society at large.