Forum menu
I never knew that the Forest of Dean was a hotbed of degeneracy? I just assumed that sort of thing happened in Lincolnshire and Norfolk.
Ignore the top layer of the Muppet show and thousands of public services employees and private businesses have been lining up preparation and planning for round 2.
As happened the first time around, and this time we know more what to expect and are better prepared.
Just moved to a new job in a different civil service department, with everything being working from home. We've been told in no uncertain terms that despite what Boris may say or want, no one will be going back to an office anytime soon. MrsMC works for a local authority, they've pushed back plans to return to offices from October to January at the earliest.
"circuit breaker" is just a new word for lockdown
Lots of the 'libertarian' Tory loving Johnson fanboys are pressuring him not to lockdown
The culture war he stoked to get into power is biting him in the arse
I suspect a 2 week resest would be about giving Delloite enough time to sort out their testing labs & clear their backlog (& hire more staff: lots of vacancies, they want qpcr technicians, 12 hr shifts, alternating between days & nights, salary poor, even for life science)
If they can hold on until half term it would make sense from a schooling pont of view, but testing farce enduring &/or crappy weather could see schools really struggling to stay open anyway.
News is reporting a “short circuit” semi-lockdown is being mooted – e.g. go to school, essential work travel and essential travel only otherwise stay at home.
I suppose it's a case of "no ideas off the table" at the moment. Another long, national lock-down will be really dire for our economy... but if you have to have one, Oct/Nov isn't a bad time economy wise, they really won't want a lockdown over Xmas. Retail had a terrible Christmas last year and that was before anyone gave a hoot about Covid.
Looking at the news in Wales where our spike appears to be more focused that at a national level, or at least we're being more honest about it, it seems to have been a caused by people travelling and people socialising in Pubs and Bars, forget about Generational bickering, you just can't trust enough people to socially distance after 5 pints. I'm, not sure I'm any better. I went to a Garden Party in August, limited to 30 people, outdoors etc, all legit here in Wales - there was a log of hugging going on at the night wore on... I'm not a big hugger at any time, but after 6 months or Covid stress, I just think too many people are desperate to be care-free for a bit, and maybe regret it later.
I suspect, they'll start of with earlier closing in Pubs - I do, in a strange way, fancy going out to just hear "LAST ORDERS" being called for the first time in decades, but not really. Maybe a 2 week ban on Pubs / Bars / Gyms / Cinemas etc. It was said months ago it seemed unlikely we'd be able to have Pubs AND schools open at the same time.
In other 'news' I heard TV News has been reporting Johnson may use emergency powers to push out the Oxford vaccine 'Unlicensed' I'm sure that will send the AntiVaxers into a spin. Not that it will be a major concern for most - it will only be Healthcare and other Key Workers getting it, then Elderly and other vulnerable people before Covid it allowed to 'run it's course' with the rest of us.
Testing is not for early discharge of quarantine duty. It was not planned as such and capacity was not built for it. Hence when everyone sees this as their get out of (self-imposed home) jail card, it is not surprising that the system can't cope.
We will not be going back to full lockdown. Education will not close en masse. The rest is up for debate. But schools will remain open. Universities might be part of the debate as they are immaterial to the economic argument.
In other ‘news’ I heard TV News has been reporting Johnson may use emergency powers to push out the Oxford vaccine ‘Unlicensed’
Given the background of the Chief Scientific Officer, I find that very hard to believe. The Government don't do "liability".
Anyone know what's happening in Calderdale? New restrictions wise? And if it's for all of Calderdale? I'd listen in to the daily briefing if it was happening...
By the looks of it, they're planning on locking down everything north of Birmingham
Given the background of the Chief Scientific Officer, I find that very hard to believe. The Government don’t do “liability”.
Based on his leaked email it seems he was told STFU previously.
By the looks of it, they’re planning on locking down everything north of Birmingham
That makes sense... I'm sure they're going to communicate and explain it all clearly in a way that encourages everyone to cooperate with it, aren't they...
But schools will remain open.
Plenty of teachers and pupils already at home here in Calderdale... so when you say "remain open", you mean only selectively close groups/years/schools where needed... and that could grow and grow to the point where in some areas school are open only in a very notional way.
and more lockdown measures
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-54194804
selectively close groups/years/schools where needed
Correct, and yes the consequences could I suppose lead to notional opening. But I'm optimistic.
We will not be going back to full lockdown. Education will not close en masse.
It never did.
I'll be surprised if it doesnt happen. Once testing fully collapses, I cant see how they can keep schools open!
It's my view that we should as a minimum be mixing on site and at home learning for all year groups now. Two days in, three days at home. I just don't see how having the full school present on the same day is workable.
Wherever possible, masks during lessons too.
It’s my view that we should as a minimum be mixing on site and at home learning for all year groups now.
We should have been planning for (and funding) this over the summer. It should always have been the case that quick switching between on site, mixed, or at home only learning, and back again, was the approach to take this term. Blindingly obvious. I know kids in fee paying schools where this is what has been set up... all work is still being set, handed in, and marked online, even though the kids are in. Classes are set up to be followed remotely if either staff or some or all kids are at home. State schools heading in to this term as if it'll be all staff and kids on site, every day, every week, was nothing short of stupid (if those making the decision genuinely care how this epidemic will impact on the lives of kids that attend those schools).
But schools will remain open.
There might be no kids in them but in their heads they will have kept their promise.
At the school my eldest two go to two third of the kids get there by bus. Before term started Derbyshire CC promised a seat for every child, year group seating etc. My kids get on at the second bus stop within the catchment area. By the time they get on the year sevens are standing. coming home virtually all the year sevens and eights are standing (that is before you get on to the bus having been on time once so far and having broken down twice and having been over an hour late on six other occasions - we are only three weeks into the term for *****sake)
The school is adhering to DOE guidance which clearly say if the kids have one of the three main symptoms (Unless the school has edited these they only mention coughs not dry coughs) it's get a test or the family isolates for ten days. The nearest test centre is just under thirty miles away in a straight line but is basically the other side of Sheffield so its not a straight line. The other two options are further away both involving driving through cities (Doesn’t really matter because no testing slots seem to be available at any of them)
The PM is moaning about too many people getting tested while another department is actively generating the demand.
and that could grow and grow to the point where in some areas school are open only in a very notional way
Stable-door, Horse, bolted....
When trying to hit a moving target it's usual to shoot ahead.
In the case of the government from the start they have not only been not leading the target but are actively aiming behind it.
It’s likely that we can expect some form of additional measures in place across most of the north at some point in the near future. That might be social restrictions, reintroduction of shielding or travel restrictions. Not hopeful for where I live, Sheffield, based on latest numbers.
In the case of the government from the start they have not only been not leading the target but are actively aiming behind it.
I picture our brave leaders as more the moving target than then hunter, 'guided by the science' and running in a straight line Prometheus-stylee as the virus crashes down over them.
It just feels a bit too bitty on the geographical coverage for restrictions. I suspect we are the point where a fast application of restrictions is needed to avoid displacement into adjoining areas. Less circuit breakers and more cutting some fire breaks in very quickly.
I read on Twitter this morning that there hasn’t been a Cobra meeting since May 10th.
Welsh first minister made a start lunch and said the last time he managed to speak to PM was 20-somethingth May and that none of the devolved governments have managed to speak to UK govt this week despite the testing fiasco being centralised.
I’d like to say it beggars belief but sadly...
I suspect we are the point where a fast application of restrictions is needed to avoid displacement into adjoining areas.
I live in one of those (Craven, next to Keighley, Bradford, Pendle, Harrogate). Too late to avoid overspill, according to the figures I've seen. Of course, knowing this lot, all the pubs in every surrounding town will get shut down but ours will be left open. With hilarious consequences.
I read on Twitter this morning that there hasn’t been a Cobra meeting since May 10th.
That's correct. We have a PM in name only... can't have a Cobra meeting again, because of the negative PR that came from him not attending past ones... so the answer is not to have any. It's not just the public they have stopped talking to... it's all the key stakeholders across the UK.
@kelvin - I think we're going back to where we were before the Liberation of rural Calderdale on Sept 2nd
No mixing of households outside support bubbles
I picked up on the no mixing (in home/gardens)... I just can't find out if that's for all of Calderdale, or when it starts, or if it includes the changes to public transport use coming in elsewhere, etc... good job we have the daily briefings to keep us all in the loop...
I picture our brave leaders as more the moving target than then hunter, ‘guided by the science’ and running in a straight line Prometheus-stylee as the virus crashes down over them.
I'm sure there is a fridge somewhere they can all hide in.
But to be honest... what "crashing down on them", it's not them it crashes down on.
Everyone in Eton got tested and retested.
Without any restrictions I just see Cumbria becoming refuge of choice from the NE and Lancs. It seems a bit daft not to have restrictions otherwise it's the the life raft of normality that everyone grabs onto and drags under.
Johnny Mercer MP is a bit of a twonk, to put it mildly, but I do like his style on occasion.
https://twitter.com/JohnnyMercerUK/status/1304735401446440961
For once i fully agree agree with johnny mercer, and if you feel the need to write your twitter bio title as Professor Dr Sir James Delignpole OM QC then you are indeed a grade A **** who suffers from low self confidence
I just can’t find out if that’s for all of Calderdale, or when it starts
https://twitter.com/JoshFG/status/1306922030122651648?s=20
How did we win Waterloo? By working together, following orders, and closely cooperating with our neighbours and allies for the common good.
What a ****.
It’s likely that we can expect some form of additional measures in place across most of the north at some point in the near future. That might be social restrictions, reintroduction of shielding or travel restrictions. Not hopeful for where I live, Sheffield, based on latest numbers.
Our CEO was under considerable pressure to re-open the office (central Manchester). Some initial work was done on it, investigating the layout that would be required, mitigation measures like perspex screens etc but he pulled it about a week ago, sensing these sort of extra lockdowns.
In a call with him today, he said it was the right move. We're working perfectly well from home, meetings are good and productive, everything is being done on time so the only real "need" to go back was the social aspect.
But with so many of the staff living in areas affected by the extra restrictions, it'd look bloody stupid if we then went "yeah, come into the office!". We've got a draft paper predicting savings of about £120,000 / year if we move most of our working to remote.
Without any restrictions I just see Cumbria becoming refuge of choice from the NE and Lancs. It seems a bit daft not to have restrictions otherwise it’s the the life raft of normality that everyone grabs onto and drags under.
Aye. I'm thinking it's time we closed the border.
Without any restrictions I just see Cumbria becoming refuge of choice from the NE and Lancs.
You won't be welcome as they've been spitting feathers about visitors for months. They have a lot of elderly residents and lots of NIMBYs too.
Aye. I’m thinking it’s time we closed the border.
Having just seen the advice is don't meet in public venues I might have been hasty on Cumbria. Could be just rural Northumberland and Durham get swamped.
Today's IndieSage:
Testing is not for early discharge of quarantine duty. It was not planned as such and capacity was not built for it. Hence when everyone sees this as their get out of (self-imposed home) jail card, it is not surprising that the system can’t cope.
Agreed in part, but isn't it predictable that when faced with quarantine, people would try to avoid it. Surely a way around that would be to increase quarantine enforcement - so getting a test wouldn't make any difference. But there are predictable events like school bubbling and workplace outbreaks where increased test capacity HAS to have been predicted, no? I know you've made logical suggestions like pooling tests for school bubbles, has anything like that been implemented? Align these things with a lack of support for people when they can't get a test and there'll be increased demand and more people taking a risk.
Hospital admissions now doubling every eight days - if uninterrupted, will lead to similar levels as in March/April by the second week of October.
Quote from IndieSAGE just now: "We're falling off the edge of the knife, now".
The logic isn't there, as of 14 Sept.
Kirklees - 71 per 100k
Calderdale - 52 per 100k
Bradford - 88 per 100k
Leeds - 71 per 100k
Yet Leeds escapes the lockdown, they must have some good MPs lobbying.
Yet Leeds escapes the lockdown, they must have some good MPs lobbying.
Maybe just good relations between the council and the government
Leeds Chief Exec worked on test and trace
Can't argue with the hole in finances point he makes.
Leeds – 71 per 100k
It would be worth knowing the age break down of those testing positive in those areas… although simple comparable indices are good for a quick understanding about where to increase control measures, I would hope that far more went into the decision making process. Again, a competent communicator should be explaining this to us in the daily briefings.
Can't get my head around why Blackpool is exempt when fylde and wyre are included. Geographically that makes no sense. I live and work in Blackpool, but a 5 minute walk can put me in fylde or wyre. We have family in fylde, my daughter goes to school in fylde, we have friends in wyre, my work colleagues are from all three areas. It's such a compact area that to differentiate them is completely illogical (to me anyway.)
I would hope that far more went into the decision making process.
Leeds has been on the watch list for a while due to increased community infection.
For once i fully agree agree with johnny mercer, and if you feel the need to write your twitter bio title as Professor Dr Sir James Delignpole OM QC then you are indeed a grade A **** who suffers from low self confidence
As far as I can tell... he's a Journalist who claims to be "a member of probably the most discriminated-against subsection in the whole of British society—the white, middle-aged, public-school-and-Oxbridge educated middle-class male" with an expensive education, but not a Professor, he's not a Sit, he hasn't been awarded a OM and he's not a QC, it took him 6 years to finish Uni, but he doesn't appear to be a Doctor either. He's a chippy 2nd Generation new-money heir who'd love to be upper class, but they don't want him.
Here's an odd 'stat' I've just read on Twitter, retweeted by Prof Karol Skiora.
"if you test 1000 people at random, latest ONS figures estimate 1 will have the virus. But with an FPR of 0.8%, you'd expect to find 8 false positives - so 9 in total, only one of which actually has the virus".
How acurate do we think the statement is? Obviously we're not testing 1000 random people and I don't know if there's a 0.8% chance of a false positive, but it's interesting, there's such a mad rush to test at the moment, partly panic, partly because it's cold / flu season and partly because employers / schools are demanding tests from so many people who don't have the classic symptoms. Maybe we're closer to 'random testing' than we think?
How acurate do we think the statement is?
He is taking about a figure not arrived at directly by testing alone, so from there on his comments about testing abnormalities not being present in that figure make little sense to me. Far more context required to understand the point, I suspect.
Your follow on point makes even less sense to me… the current testing programme doesn’t suddenly start to look like a random one because a few people think they may be asymptomatic carriers, and want to check.
The FPR is estimated with uncertainty from a finite number of previous samples. The ONS calculation uses Bayesian statistics to propagate that prior uncertainty into predictions of the posterior probability given the additional 1000 samples. Tests outside the ONS cross-sectional survey aren't random.
Can’t get my head around why Blackpool is exempt
As I understand it, Lancashire County Council have asked Gov to intervene and legislate for new lockdown. Blackpool is a Unitary Authority and isn't part of LCC.
The population of Blackpool are so full of STD's, Blue WKD and heroin that they would simply brush off Covid
As I understand it, Lancashire County Council have asked Gov to intervene and legislate for new lockdown. Blackpool is a Unitary Authority and isn’t part of LCC.
That would explain it! Geographically though, it's bloomin ludicrous!!
The population of Blackpool are so full of STD’s, Blue WKD and heroin that they would simply brush off Covid
I tend not to suffer too much with colds to be honest 🤔💉
Maybe cheesy chips give you immunity?
Cheesy chips?!? Hungy now!
Bets on when the next Cobra meeting will be…?
Bets on when the next Cobra meeting will be…?
2023
Would Tired or another capable of an educated/model/informed estimate, like to suggest when London will see a return of the social restrictions or firmer lockdown we are now seeing imposed on large parts of the North and Wales? I am slightly baffled as to why numbers here are currently lowish. London's make up meant it led the country by a week or more in phase 1, and I'm not seeing loads of adherence to the rules tbh, it feels like people are bored of it all. Baffled that we aren't climbing just as fast as elsewhere tbh.
Our two little ones go here.
A load of the teachers thought it was a good idea to go to a baby shower party organised by a former colleague just back from the middle east and they've become ill and tested positive and so the school is now closed. ****ing idiots.
Would Tired or another capable of an educated/model/informed estimate, like to suggest when London will see a return of the social restrictions or firmer lockdown we are now seeing imposed on large parts of the North and Wales?
It's not just the science though is it - political considerations are also fairly important. Lock down London and suddenly this isn't just "rural unkempt northerners" being confined to their coops for their own good, it's an actual happening sh*tshow; and the most compelling evidence that the government has completed f*cked it.
So it'll lock down too late, again...
Tewit, the way things are going around here they’d be closing soon anyway. I don’t know of any schools without both teachers and staff isolating.
Oh… finally have confirmation on Radio4 that new restrictions are for the whole of Calderdale.
Oh god… BBC voxpops… how about informing the public, not wallowing in their confusion?
Bring back the daily briefings and broadcast them in full.
It’s not just the science though is it – political considerations are also fairly important.
Take a look at the map showing cases per 100k on
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274
Where would you impose restrictions if you were in charge? London won't be long in catching up, but if you're working regionally then there are bigger issues elsewhere.
France:
Or, in other words, us in three weeks.
Or, in other words, us in three weeks.
I'll go just over a week and a half if the number of cases doubles every seven days.
Or, in other words, us in three weeks.
I wouldn’t bet against it.
New lockdown by next weekend.
Nah, strike that. Announced next Friday, to start on Monday. Might as well give the arseholes one last weekend to binge down the pub.
St Andrews University has just gone into (voluntary) lockdown... a few miles away from us:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-54209452
A record of positive tests but the record of daily cases before confinement will never be known. Working back from the daily death rate gives a ball park figure of over 100 000 a day for early March.
As I said three days ago this week is critical, are the measures in place enough? And the answer seems to be no. As with the return to school/work/uni after the February holidays things aren't going well.
I think junior is representative of the younger generation, the risks for them are so low they'd rather just get on with life. They're as/more likely to die of a host of other things RTA/overdose/suicide/random other illness. If they could live in a generational bubble that would be fine, but they don't. Junior has announced he's fed up with being stuck in Paris with f-all to do and is going to visit us... . Having been DJ at a rave, socialised with hundreds and attended uni. He thinks he may have had it last week but couldn't be arsed to queue for a test and as for isolating.
Madame is still at school which has had only one class closed.
The alternative is, well, the usual one over here, so I'm going along with the organised chaos rather than another set of pitched battles in the street and the government losing what little control they have.
The fear has gone.
Mrs anagallis has lost sense of smell, I tested it with half a tub of Vicks and now believe her...testing website says no!!
On the bright side, think how much you can save in shower gel.
On the bright side, think how much you can save in shower gel.
Also that very expensive turbo thats been sat in the garage since march unused might get some use!!
I am slightly baffled as to why numbers here are currently lowish. London’s make up meant it led the country by a week or more in phase 1
Public transport is a huge source of cross-transmission in London. It has been shut down and not really reopened to any significant extent. Hospital cases in London and other NHS areas have turned over and are now rising, slower than at the beginning of the epidemic, so assume a doubling every 7-14 days. We are probably about five doublings from the late March, early April peak. Six to eight weeks is a long time in an epidemic. Follow the admissions not the cases.
And now tell me about preexisting immunity. How’s that working prof Gupta?
Nah, strike that. Announced next Friday, to start on Monday. Might as well give the arseholes one last weekend to binge down the pub.
I've a thought they're going to go for some lockdown-lite - close as much as they possibly can (pubs, shops etc) but keep anything that is somehow desirable (schools, road repairs, Brexshit planners) going.
Fast forward three weeks and we're at half term for many schools. I think today's 'circuit breaker' comments are about some kind of fortnight full lockdown, in the middle of lockdown-lite.
Sadly, the dates tie in exactly with some asks around planning for a second peak, that the Education Recovery Group up here mentioned back in June...
I wonder where we are on the Covid Alert scale? Hopefully we aren't at level three as the actions were general relaxation of restrictions. The scale does look even more laughably inadequate under current circumstances.
Test booked for 8.30 tomorrow morning!
I’ve a thought they’re going to go for some lockdown-lite – close as much as they possibly can (pubs, shops etc) but keep anything that is somehow desirable (schools, road repairs, Brexshit planners) going.
Pointless to keep schools open as the rise has been since re opening them. I work in an FE college with plenty of courses that could run remotely, but we still have to go in. We had success with remote learning before with a 100% success rate. That's without exams being estimated. The college most likely saved money on energy Bill's too.
I'm being logical again. I meant to say, colleges are immune to the virus.
I assume there will be no more vouchers for restaurants!
^^Eat Out to Help (Covid) Out?
can't see fans back at football now.... this really will be curtains for most theaters (without serious state intervention)
thanks Tired, that makes sense, getting on a bus and going into town this week, public transport use is waaaay down.
And now tell me about preexisting immunity. How’s that working prof Gupta?
As most of STW expected in Europe, however in Africa the virus isn't nearly a deadly as expected.
So if I'm following the news correctly, the European countries worst hit by Covid in the first wave - us, France, Spain - are the ones looking to be hit worse by the impending second wave. Those that did better first time round seem to be having a smaller second wave coming.
Is it a government failure in all those countries that's led to the bigger second wave? Is it societal issues with sticking to rules/using "common sense"? Did none of us learn from the first wav
We're obviously finding all the faults in our own government's actions, just intrigued if it's similar failings elsewhere.