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Give it a week, two weeks ago it was only the hoptspot areas dark red, last week it was some of Wales, big chuck on NE and around Leciester. i expect all the midlands and in to the South to be next week.
I follow my local area on there and has gone from 60 infections to 142 in 9 days
I wonder what the data would look like if there was any chance of getting a test in the worst affected areas?
Well, I have a useful animation of how this panned out in France… hold on…
About a million tests a week in France at present which is about as high as is possible without running out of reagents and manpower. The positive rate is about 5%.
People were let out to enjoy the Summer and return to some kind of economic normality. After a few weeks back to school and work things are bad but not catastrophic in that the hospitals and test/trace systems are just about coping. I think this week is critical, if the measures imposed in the red departements don't slow the spread we're back to uncontrolled spread. If they do keep daily cases at current levels then in 20 years time we'll be up to herd immunity. 🙁
I say this with my tongue in my cheek as the virus will mutate by then, for better or worse.
What should MPs do when their constituents tell them they can’t get a test? Well… tell them that tests are available, of course. Silly little people that we ordinary folk are…
https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1305840271872208899?s=21
Let's play a game - who of us in the north of England can get closest to the bull (our home address) by spamming the test booking system with Exeter and Great Yarmouth postcodes?*
*don't actually do this. TESTS ARE AVAILABLE IN RECORD NUMBERS IN ALL AREAS. EURASIA HAS ALWAYS BEEN AT WAR WITH EASTASIA!
In terms of 'gaming the system', it's pretty obvious that the system is gaming us, by offering tests which we have zero chance of taking up. What kind of ****ed up individual designs that?
Clue:
Chap interviewed on PM last night, prof Allan mcnab, who is/was director of a 'mega lab' at Milton Keynes said the reason for the shortage of tests was the most closely guarded secret in the country. Interesting interview IMO. It starts at the 36 min mark if anyone's interested.
Correction - he helped set up the 'lighthouse lab' in mk.
Also makes a point about these labs not being under PHE, and in fact essentially are there to displace PHE in taking over diagnostic testing in to the private sector.
said the reason for the shortage of tests was the most closely guarded secret in the country.
Who are we selling them to?
Ha! How many times can you still them I wonder?
Tory Scum.
Voted Conservative in the North? This is on you.
Well this makes me more likely to buy a Brant bike 🙂
Voted Conservative in the North? This is on you.
What if you live in a Labour constituency, despite your Tory vote; or vice versa. Your action has had no impact, yet you get the blame...
I voted Labour, despite my strong dislike of Corbyn-as-leader*; purely because of Brexit. The ability to respond to a global pandemic, or really any global problem, including war and climate change did not affect my descision one bit.
*Corbyn the man, and Corbyn the local MP I have respect for. PM or leader of the opposition, not so much.
Perhaps in future people will look at the character of those they elect and ask the question: "Would he/she be any good in a crisis?"* It's simply that quite a few of current electorate don't know what a real crisis looks like, or have forgotten.
*Of course they won't, that's fantastical thinking.
Surprise, surprise - fat lazy westerners used to having it easy in not understanding the risk and gravity of a crisis shocker.
100% mask compliance in Asda yesterday afternoon too, that I could see. This cheers me up significantly as it was about 10% last week.
My sonS school is about 160 kids a year. They are in year bubbles. 1 positive test and loads off unable to get tests has seen the whole of Y7 sent home for 2 weeks.
100% mask compliance in Asda yesterday afternoon too, that I could see. This cheers me up significantly as it was about 10% last week.
Presumably the one in Pentwyn? The one down the Bay had to call in the police after one of their staff was pushed over for reminding people to wear one if they could while handing them out.
My sonS school is about 160 kids a year. They are in year bubbles.
All the time or just during lessons? I wouldn't be surprised if he is still able to mix with others before school, during breaks, and shortly after school.
When challenged on reports of people struggling to get swabbed, Mr Hancock said it would take a "matter of weeks" to resolve the problems.
He said No 10 would update its testing policy shortly to prioritise the most urgent cases.
So they are going to solve ye lack of tests by doing less testing...thats going to work really well!
Stop moaning its a free service (according to Matt Handjob) and dont worry he is going to prioritise cases?
The above sums up what a usless set of ****s this gov is. GP surgeries sat virtually idle with staff and resources available?
I found this guy's analysis quite interesting. Some points made I've not heard before.
All the time or just during lessons? I wouldn’t be surprised if he is still able to mix with others before school, during breaks, and shortly after school.
We are going to considerable efforts to keep different yeargroups separate. It involves staggered start times, no bells, masks in all indoor spaces except classrooms, policed "bubble-zones" for yeargroups at break and lunch, one-way systems and gallons of hand sanitiser.
The common cold is still passing through the entire school population though, seemingly immune to all the Covid precautions. Nobody has told it that respiratory infections are not welcome...
SAS 9.4. I’ve used but am not a great fan of R. Python is fine for data, but for analytics I like SAS. Others like R because it’s free and flexible, but the language is far behind SAS for rapid simple plots and sums. Don’t get me started on speed of simulation!
As an amateur, I was thinking of spending a couple of months getting up to speed on Python. Would that be wise do you think? Or is R more useful?
In celebrity news, Noel Gallagher refuses to wear a mask while brother Liam says it's gotta be done but doesn't like it. I always thought Liam was supposed to be the bigger **** of the two but there you go.
I found this guy’s analysis quite interesting. Some points made I’ve not heard before.
But for the sensible among us it’s just psuedo-science clap trap.
He doesn’t even get the flu season right ffs!
Propagating this sort of shit increases the death count; has someone got a graph for that?
I utterly despair at how bad we are doing going into autumn.
I've lost count at how many times I've heard, from our government, the WHO, the informed on here etc, just how crucial a functioning mass testing program and track and trace are to getting through the coming Winter. Yet it seems that we have been simply treading water since Spring. We lost precious days/weeks before lock down and it seems we have now lost whole months due to indecision and a seemingly total lack of competence.
I'm not so much angry anymore as desperately, desperately worried about the next few months and beyond.
How did we get it this wrong?
[ double post ]
I think where you might be going wrong poopscoop is imagining that this lot GAS. They do not. Don't think they've been wasting time either. They've been spending it very productively, figuring out how best to funnel money from the public purse to their backers and themselves, securing their ultimate objectives, and getting ready for the off. It's all going swimmingly.
Still. I'm sure it'll all turn out for the best.
Just last week Johnston was feigning conniptions at the very idea that testing wasn't working perfectly. How dare that terrible Keir Starmer say otherwise?
The common cold is still passing through the entire school population though, seemingly immune to all the Covid precautions. Nobody has told it that respiratory infections are not welcome…
I've never seen the likes of this september before, bad colds are rampant, is this because the kids have been kept apart for 5 months? The teachers are dropping like flies too.
Isn’t the common cold a coronavirus?
If a cold runs through A school doesn’t it mean that all the alleged “Covid secure” plans are complete rubbish?
That’s the short version.
Here’s the long version [full thread).
https://twitter.com/juniordrblog/status/1305861383607771137?s=21
Full disclosure: I’ve read the thread, but haven’t watched the video… He’s an engineer that makes his money in the “diet” market… which was enough for me to stay clear.
Well the papers aren't holding back on their front pages today. When the government have the Daily Mail, of all papers, launching a 'campaign' against you it's time to rethink!
Pupils now off school with constant coughs but cannot book a test, so as long as its unconfirmed the bubble stays in school!! Well done omnishambles.gov
I thought this analysis from a Sky news reporter was really good and easy to understand.
Pupils now off school with constant coughs but cannot book a test, so as long as its unconfirmed the bubble stays in school!! Well done omnishambles.gov
Government has screwed schools on this.
The schools are running on risk assessments that conclude they're "covid safe" when the key part that reduces risk is out of their control and failing.
In a more traditional "risk assessment" industry, eg construction or similar, that would invalidate the risk assessment and method statement and potentially stop the work until it's sorted.
Could be worth a read through your own RA and maybe writing a little email to whoever signed off the procedures as safe asking whether they still recommend using them as is.
@Kelvin - in fairness, the Dr taking it apart is a cardiologist who quit government over the Cummings row, published a book about Dr's experiences with the first wave and publicly stated his fear of a 2nd wave. So not exactly neutral! That being said, anyone who experienced that in hospital early this year has my respect and I absolutely get where he is coming from wanting to avoid a repeat of that.
I just watched it with an open mind. It hasn't convinced me to ditch Covid measures, but some of it does give me both pause for thought and hope. As does the Sky guy above, which follows the same basic narrative (the worst is over, cases are being exaggerated, deaths are not following) without speculating much on the reasons why.
What neither address and is under-reported is the non-fatal effects. A Chinese study showed 55% of recovered patients had some neural structural damage 3 months after recovery. Exhibiting prolonged issues with memory, smell, taste etc. We don't know what scale of a problem that might be here yet.
Would that be wise do you think? Or is R more useful?
Python for data science. R is much more specific. You can do basic stats and presentation in Python, but serious analysis and complex modelling requires the functionality of R/SAS.
You can run SAS for free on their servers too. https://www.sas.com/en_gb/software/university-edition.html
Isn’t the common cold a coronavirus?
About 1/6 of colds are caused by a coronavirus. The remainder are rhinovirus.
Python 100% have a look at Jupyter Notebook
I’ve never seen the likes of this september before, bad colds are rampant, is this because the kids have been kept apart for 5 months? The teachers are dropping like flies too.
Our immune systems have barely been challenged for 5 months, have stepped back and are now being hit as we expose them again. My daughters cold lasted 24hrs and she was one of 5 in her class. No other issues, and gladly no panic from parents or the school.
I just watched it with an open mind.
As long as you did some research into who the guy is before you listened to him. And that goes for all self proclaimed experts... there are plenty of very knowledgeable and genuine people contributing to our understanding currently... and engineer who knows how to use social media to gain attention to sell his diet is incredibly low down my list of people to listen to.
Python for data science. R is much more specific. You can do basic stats and presentation in Python, but serious analysis and complex modelling requires the functionality of R/SAS.
You can run SAS for free on their servers too. https://www.sas.com/en_gb/software/university-edition.html
/blockquote>Tried SciPy?
SAS makes me want to jump off a tall building.
Almost as bad as this crowd of kooks n' charlatans selling bleach as a covid remedy , id make them drink the stuff on live tv
Stop moaning its a free service (according to Matt Handjob) and dont worry he is going to prioritise cases?
We're self-isolating (again) after my six year old spiked a temperature last night.
Can't get a test anywhere local. Mrs is an NHS Consultant. She couldn't go in to work today and couldn't book a test through her hospital because even though they have the facilities, the supply of reagent required for the test is being rationed by government.
We're in Northumberland and currently the nearest available test, according to the NHS site, is Dundee!
the star slowly turning into the mash
@kelvin I'm a sceptic whoever I'm listening to. The key parts of the video that I found interesting where taken from other sources - scientists, epidemiologists. His T-cell cross-reactivity hypothesis (that the Dr downplayed) has been proven in labs as a mechanism and proposed for the low number of deaths in Africa. Accepting that isn't proof, it's still interesting.
It's worth considering the foundation of our knowledge of bacteriology came from a fabric seller who built microscopes to inspect the quality of cloth, not a doctor. Without wanting to encourage anyone to ignore the experts (or imply this guy is legit), sometimes solutions do come from unlikely places!
taken from other sources
Misattributed, taken out of context, or just plain misrepresented. It might sound good to you, but look into who he is, and what people more knowledgeable than you, I, or him say about his “hot take” attention seeking video. Or better still, just ignore it.
Rhondda Cynon Taff going into local lockdown from 6pm Thursday. That's the 2 areas closest to me now, how long before most of South Wales is under restrictions again?
This has been tested today.
Go online for a covid test, accept any location, get a QR code, jog slong to local test centre, present QR code, get tested.....
how long before most of South Wales is under restrictions again?
Having just got back from there (Pembrokeshire), I'm amazed it's taken this long. We were gobsmacked when we got down there, coming from Greater Manchester where we've already had another lockdown. We went to the supermarket on the second day and we were literally the only people in there wearing facemasks. The first thing we witnessed in there was a bloke massively kicking off when being asked to stick to social distancing rules. Some gammon giving it the full 'its an infringement of my human rights' bullshit
The pubs were rammed with big groups, with absolutely zero social distancing going on anywhere. We cancelled some restaurant bookings we'd made for the week because it just looked like nobody was taking it remotely seriously.
We are meant to be going on holiday next week - wondering if a) we'll actually be allowed to go and b) if its a good idea.
Regarding b) my thinking is that as we'll be in self catering accom it doesnt really make a difference where we are and if anything we'll be less at risk ourselves as child won't be in nursury. Any thoughts?
Where are you going ferrals? We're off to CP Whinfell on friday, wifes colleague was there last weekend and reckoned it was great, really well organised and quieter than ever.
Really looing forward to it as the wee one is 13 now, taking a pal, so plenty running and cycling time. Happy days.
Regarding b) my thinking is that as we’ll be in self catering accom it doesnt really make a difference where we are and if anything we’ll be less at risk ourselves as child won’t be in nursury. Any thoughts?
I'd go along with you on that. We were in self-catering accommodation so thought we'd be right. We were just out walking and riding during the day, so didn't encounter many people. We'd booked some places for meals in the evening, which we canceled because we just werent convinced they were taking it seriously enough
I'd definitely just go away
We're off down to Cornwall via a stop off at my folks (who are, foolishly imo, not concerned and seeing friends so we aren't a greater risk to them than their standard behaviour). Basically planning on picnics on the beach.. my wife has her heart set on going to one restaurant which we've reserved but we can always skip that depending on situation.
Go online for a covid test, accept any location, get a QR code, jog slong to local test centre, present QR code, get tested…..
What if you don't have a smart phone?
Pupils now off school with constant coughs but cannot book a test, so as long as its unconfirmed the bubble stays in school!! Well done omnishambles.gov
They'll be telling you to use their predicted results next.
Isn’t the common cold a coronavirus?
Either a corona virus or rhinovirus
If a cold runs through A school doesn’t it mean that all the alleged “Covid secure” plans are complete rubbish?
No not at all... Boris has a ring of steel for schools, just like the one for nursing homes.
Also the Covid-19 virus will act differently on British soil..
Besides, when has a kid ever caught a cold at school?
Another 4000 today, here we go, gulp.
Tests are taking days to get back so this is a snapshot of what the situation was ~4 days ago
There's also 1000s who have been unable to get a test at all
Another 4000 today, here we go, gulp.
Its not 4k yet.
[Begin pedantic argument]
There’s also 1000s who have been unable to get a test at all
I'm now on day 5 of trying both online and calling 119; no test sites found and being on a an interminable voice message loop respectively.
Referred to hospital 2 days ago due to breathlessness and wheezing following an hour long coughing fit; discharged after 6 hours with all clear following respiratory function tests.
Emailed my surgery asking for help to get a test; as expected, my GP said we can't do anything but was openly critical of the failed system.
Emailed my tory MP who is a hospital doctor; template response from her office with a bit of personalisation - telling me it must be frustrating but keep on trying; quoting numbers of tests carried out last week in her constituency but that's an irrelevance.
I have responded pointing out this is a failure of public health policy; asking how long does she think I should continue trying; stating that her government has proven incapable of delivering a fit for purpose testing system 6 months after the pandemic outbreak; that I had expected a more constructive and focussed response from her as a public health professional.
Waiting for her response.
Emailed matt hancock in his capacity as Sec of State for Health.
Went to nearest test centre asking for test; expected to be refused as I didn't have a booking - and was; observed traffic visiting the site for 30 mins early afternoon - 5 cars each with a driver only so not exactly busy; have shared this with my MP.
What a shambles.
That re-inforces my view this is a flawed and failed system.
A customer of mine was advised to take an Aberdeen QR code (Huddersfield based) then take that to his nearest centre and it worked. Seems it works as has been suggested.
Excellently, it turns out that the government's stats for "average distance to a test" only includes people who actually attend. Can anyone think of any reason that would skew the results towards a low number?
Hopefully an incorrect rumour
https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1306360104598601731
The maths make sense to me. The advice is probably correct as well. It won’t happen though.
It’s hardly surprising if it is.
The way to make school opening a success was to screw down the numbers as hard as possible over the summer, have a rigorous testing scheme ready to expand.
Calling something “Covid Secure”doesn’t apparently Scare off the virus!!
I should expand on that… if the assumption was that doubling time was 7 days (or even ten days) when term started in England, there is no way it would stay that slow once the push back into schools (and pupils’ parents back into workplaces) occurred, in one Big Bang… a jump to a doubling time of 3 days wouldn’t surprise me, and wouldn’t be picked up via current testing (that’s a mess, not successfully scaling up when it was obvious it would be needed) or be obvious from track and trace (that is also a mess, and manual and failing to scale when needed - an app might have helped). The government made it clear back during lock down that the return to school and workplaces would only be possible to do safely, given the lack of a (near) eradication plan, with the right testing, tracking, tracing and isolate plans… they didn’t get it all in place, but pushed on anyway. Hopefully the figures are wrong, and the doubling time is more like 5 or 6 days… but it won’t be as it was at the start of September… it can’t be. The rule of six should help to reduce the speed of the spread again… but by how much?
Anthony Costello
@globalhlthtwit
·
7h
I’m hearing from a well-connected person that government now thinks, in absence of testing, there are 38,000 infections per day. Chris Whitty is advising PM for a two week national lockdown.
Chris Whitty is advising PM for a two week national lockdown.
Why would we need that when shutting pubs an hour early in a small number of local authorities will get a handle on it?
Those who do not learn from their mistakes are doomed to repeat them.
Our immune systems have barely been challenged for 5 months, have stepped back and are now being hit as we expose them again.
This isn't how immune systems work btw. It's a common misconception, it's not like going to the gym. Unless you've been exposed to the specific infection then you can have the 'strongest' immune system going and you'll still run the full gamut of symptoms before developing immunity.
Quick get down the pub in Newcastle, its going to be closing early soon!!
Thousands.....thats a drop in the ocean!!
Indeed, some drips of positive news will be needed in the next few weeks though… thought I’d share one.
Had a pretty unpleasant night, high temperature and definite change in taste, feel better this morning, not perfect but no temperature and only slight metallic taste in mouth.
So, as per gov instructions I am now trying to get a test, in the meantime son (2nd year of A Levels) has to stay at home and miss football training tonight etc.
Was close to being able to book a test in Burton on Trent (46 miles away), but the site crashed and now no tests available.
Update from my barber shop for those interested. Well over 50%, maybe 75% favour just getting on with it and letting whatever deaths occur just happen. They can't see the connection between what we have done and the drop in death rates, In fact, they can't see that we have even lost anybody extra, only lost a few old folk that were dying anyway. This opinion is just as prevelant in the old folk. It's just flu and flu kills more people anyway.
These aren't my opinions as I spend way too much time on this thread but I think its only right to share this as not everyone gets to talk to as many people as I do.
Thousands…..thats a drop in the ocean!!
Follow that Tweet and it suggests around 8 million.