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I think the old pot-head Alpin was nicer than this new version. Can I get a refund?
According to that graph, we should already be like Italy.
Which were not just yet.
I think both countries confirmed first cases January 31st?
That graph aesthetically offends me. It looks like it was done in R using the crappest plot library available.
Any data scientists have an opinion on that?
I’ve just noticed the testing data on Wiki which is interesting.
Alleges South Korea, then Italy, then the UK in total volume of tests. Some countries data quite a few says since last updated.
I think both countries confirmed first cases January 31st?
Yup we’re on the same timescale.
But, I’ve been sat at home for three weeks now without any sign of work on the horizon. I’m fortunate that I’ve got a bit saved and am dipping into that contingency now, but friends of mine are not so fortunate.
Know how you feel, my work has dropped off a cliff (temporary power), more worryingly is the prospect of no work for several months and the knock on effects. The event industry in this country is absolutely huge, go to any big event in Europe (or world, know lots of folk in Tokyo for the Olympics) and there will be lots of Brits behind the scenes.
I'm assuming Italy must have had cases sooner.
Lack of testing being done in the states is insane.
With no sick pay, insurance system that encourages people not to admit they're sick, 18 million with no coverage & a president lying & saying the exact opposite of what people should do, the graph there is going to be steepest (tho confirming cases v hard with no testing)
I’m assuming Italy must have had cases sooner.
Nope first confirmed cases were 2 Chinese nationals on 31st January exactly like the U.K.
Not liking the look of this;
but the complacency is something to behold, female news presenter on breakfast telly, i've got the symptoms but have a runny nose so all is OK (all said bit of a giggle). Yeah but you can have 2 illnesses at once and it's called the common cold for a reason.
But do we to an extent have to accept that we'll get it... It's just a question of how well/badly it ends up going at that time ?
Well. At the moment China has a population of how many billion and only 100,000 odd have got it with new cases dropping. So it is possible to contain it.
The number of cases is doubling every ~3 days.
I don't think the average human brain is very good at comprehending things that are exponential in their growth rate. Most things we encounter are linear.
Whatever it looks like now, if that is allowed to continue it will be 4x worse in a week, and ~100x worse in 3 weeks.
Holy f***! Did Boris Johnson just say on national tv we need a 'balance' between lots of old people being allowed to die and saving some money? The complacency of him and Trump is astounding. This could finish them both.
https://twitter.com/mvdct/status/1235616068342812677?s=20
Yeah, the thing that I don't really get is just how effectively China seems to have got it under control. From the moment a country has a few cases it seems more or less inevitable (unless they get massively organised and lucky with contact tracing and containment) that it's heading into the thousands within weeks. So it's counter-intuitive to me that once there are tens of thousands of cases within China, it's possible to get on top of it so (relatively) fast, to the point where now there are only a few new cases per day in the whole of China. I know that they have been throwing massive resources at contact tracing, and really locked down massive areas, but really - with thousands of people out there known to have it, how is is possible that it's now contained to the point where there are just a few dozen leaking out per day now?
Also, if going into lockdown is *that* effective, I don't really get why the experts are saying that it's better to *not* go in too hard too fast with lockdowns (stated to be because that ends up having a longer overall time in lockdown, leading to 'fatigue' and presumably greater economic cost / social unrest) - since on the face of it, locking everything down now for a couple or few weeks might well turn it around before it goes all Italy/China on us.
Whatever it looks like now, if that is allowed to continue it will be 4x worse in a week, and ~100x worse in 3 weeks.
But if appropriate containment is put in place and Italy follows the Chinese trend, then what? Worst case scenarios very rarely occur (just ask anyone who modelled Brexit) so what we're likely to see is a peak in some countries/regions, then a tail as restrictions kick in - exponential growth is unlikely to continue for long and realistically in a finite population (with no reinfection) it cannot be sustained.
As to the UK, what we don't know at the moment is how many of the reported cases are imports and how many are from local transmission, how many were self isolating and how many were in general circulation etc. I'm hoping that one of the grown ups under Hancock has that info and is monitoring it all so that any restrictions come in at the right time, and for the right period.
Yup we’re on the same timescale.
First confirmed case does not equal first case. Modelling suggests that Italy had background spread well in advance of their first positive test. The current thinking about Chinese labour for the fashion industry supports that.
Italy is approximately two weeks ahead of us. I've not seen any clear evidence that we are diverging from that trend in a favourable way, yet. We should have an edge because Italy didn't get a headstart on containment.
I will also be interested to see what strain type is circulating in Italy. Again, the timing and potential source suggests it will be L, the more aggressive version in terms of illness.
Although it could be posed better, surely all government healthcare (funding) decisions are about striking a balance. If you were PM you could definitely reduce the number of old people who die from flu every year by ploughing more money into the NHS. (Aside from the fact that the NHS certainly has too little money,) somebody has to weigh up the cost/benefits of all sorts of decisions that relate to people's health. It's a dirty job but it has to be done, and of course there are actuarial type calculations that essentially put numbers on how valuable a life is, i.e. how much we as a society would be willing to spend to save a life. "Whatever it costs" feels like the right answer, but it's not available if you're in charge of a country.
Note: I'm not defending Boris, I think he's thoroughly awful and dangerous, and I don't think it's likely that "just do nothing" is a good strategy for this.
Here is a thread on how the numbers are bit more nuanced than 'Covid-19^2'
https://twitter.com/drg1985/status/1236661113250623488
As to the UK, what we don’t know at the moment is how many of the reported cases are imports and how many are from local transmission
We should lock our borders, stop people leaving and entering the country.
I’ve heard that argument before... was it March2016 through June2016?
Some people will be happy...
As for work...
Contingency is in full flow, we are maxed out provisioning laptops and tech for remote access.
I’ve onboarded 14techs in the last 5days to cope, and I think I’ll need more.
Looking good for our bottom line 🤪
I’ve onboarded 14techs in the last 5days to cope
Is that some sort of bumsex euphemism, or is ‘onboarding’ some new unnecessary mangling of the English language to somehow make hiring people sound more impressive?
Is that some sort of bumsex euphemism, or is ‘onboarding’ some new unnecessary mangling of the English language to somehow make hiring people sound more impressive?
Perhaps he works on a ship? Would almost make sense then. Otherwise, it's actually more letters to type/syllables to say than simply 'hired'.
Anyone else seen the link that's doing the rounds on WhatsApp? It's a link to a video repository of footage from inside China and Iran. Stuff folk have shot on mobiles that the governments are trying to clamp down on being shared.
Grim, doesn't do it any justice. What was noticeable was the amount of young people collapsing on the street, in waiting rooms, in shops etc.
One of the experts on radio 4 said the problem with a lockdown is that as soon as you stop the lockdown, the virus starts spreading again.
It's not like an earthquake or storm or something where you hunker down until it's passed.
The hospital department my Wife works in has had talks about stopping the specialist procedures that they carry out (anyone with heart issues here?) and converting to a temporary ICU department - something to do do with atmospheric control capability.
The staff might be redeployed to wards or out into the community.
The point being (for the specials on here) is that when it "hits", it's not just a case of everyone is going to get it, so "meh", it means for every one that dies there will be a % that will be hospitalised.
So take 1% of the population are going to cark it, add on say, a nice round 3% that will need hospitalisation but will survive, so 4% - out of 66,440,000 people.
Even with my woeful maths that seems to work out at 2,657,600 extra hospitalisation.
Context: Look at the NHS review for Winter 2017/18. Linky. Go on. Give it a go.
Headed "Summary", page 2.
All aspects of urgent and emergency care were affected, including 400,000 more people calling NHS111, 290,000 more people attending accident and emergency departments(A&E)and 100,000 more being admitted to hospital as an emergency compared to last year.
100,000 "extra".
So with 2,657,600 million "extra". If you bust your leg biking, you wont be queuing in the corridor you'll be queuing all the way back to f--king Swinley.
We could chose not to hospitalise certain patients - who decides who gets let in? How do you decide? Cos busting your leg playing on a bike might not get you many points in a points based entry system.
Maybe I got the NHS winter analysis wrong, my maths is definitely bad, but I'm pretty sure it's not going to be "meh", when it finally gets going.
So it’s counter-intuitive to me that once there are tens of thousands of cases within China, it’s possible to get on top of it so (relatively) fast,
It took China a while to admit they had a problem, by then it's left the country, BUT once they did they created 100,s of 1000s of hospital beds & shutdown millions of people. Communism/totalitarianiam is good at that kind of top down enforcement,not to mention an iron grip on all forms of media . At a local level people breaking the quarantine were tied to poles in the centre of villages as a warning. There were also grim stories of children being left in apartments with dead grandparent etc.
It will never be the same here or in any other big countries . That said socialised healthcare like the NHS is way better placed to deal with this kind of crisis (well if the Tories hadn't spent the last 10 years cutting beds & staff) than something like the American system , which despite having the best healthcare available anywhere is developing world level at the bottom, which is why Corona is going to really stuff them.
As for the claim that there are ‘only’ c500 cases in the US – bullshittery of the highest order.
This twitter thread gives a shocking insight into the problem the US are getting themselves into.
#NoTestNoTell is also worth a browse
So, with Facebook, Twitter etc actively removing false and misleading info about Covid19 from their platforms, when will STW do the same?
I think the economic effects of this will be greater than x thousand premature deaths
Just to be clear, how much money is a human life worth? Then we can figure out if we should bother trying to save them. Maybe if that's a success we can do away with the NHS completely - that's save a lot of problems.
One of the experts on radio 4 said the problem with a lockdown is that as soon as you stop the lockdown, the virus starts spreading again
The bigger problem is, in a country like the UK it won't hold for long. The longer it goes on the more it gets ignored.
Keep your eye on Italy, I give it a week before the lockdown has finished in all but name.
One of the big differences between China and here, Japan and here, south Korea and here is a sense of social responsibility the west shrugged off a long time ago.
So it is possible to contain it.
Of course it is. You have to try though. I’m not sure what we’re waiting for in the UK before we (including myself, I’ve not made any changes other than extra handwashing) do anything significant to stop it spreading here, beyond isolating known cases.
If you were PM you could definitely reduce the number of old people who die from flu every year by ploughing more money into the NHS
This winter, the govt. provided the free flu jab to all UK primary school children for the first time. Primary age school children don't tend to die from flu, but their grandparents do and school kids do tend to be "super spreaders".
Somebody must have done the numbers and thought this was a worthwhile cost. Deaths from normal flu do appear to be low this year, so perhaps it had an effect.
I imagine the same people that advised on the free flu jab are the same people advising on what to do about Covid-19. Its not just Boris making it up as he goes along.
Just to be clear, how much money is a human life worth? Then we can figure out if we should bother trying to save them.
Sadly, I think that medical teams will be forced to make Quality of Life Years assessments on a regular basis with a finite supply of equipment and staff. That is the end result of just 'letting the disease move through the population' as our 'PM' phrases it, but you can guarantee he won't be getting his hands dirty with the kind of dilemmas that the NHS is likely to be facing.
As Rory Stewart put it this morning, brave decisions about the timing of serious restrictions to our day to day lives fall to our politicians, not the Chief Medical Officer, so I can only hope that these politicians are actually listening to expert advice. Their track record is not great on that score.
One of the big differences between China and here, Japan and here, south Korea and here is a sense of social responsibility the west shrugged off a long time ago.
It’s also been a lot longer since the UK was last a totalitarian state, able to absolutely subdue its population. Collective memory has a lot to do with what a population will accept as reasonable.
Italy too, actually. I’d expect Spain will be following suit.
Collective memory has a lot to do with what a population will accept as reasonable.
True, it'll be very interesting to see how lockdown goes in Germany where that particular scar is quite sore.
(Romania especially and much of the old Eastern bloc too)
I’d expect Spain will be following suit.
They're closing all the schools here in Madrid from tomorrow, we're all working from home from this afternoon too. I assume gyms&cinemasa&etc. will be next. Lots of sporting events have also been cancelled / postponend.
Just to be clear, how much money is a human life worth? Then we can figure out if we should bother trying to save them.
Depends. What nationality are they? When we know that, we can apply the usual league table
Depends. What nationality are they? When we know that, we can apply the usual league table
Just to check, you know the financial worth one has shiftless brits at the bottom don't you?
That'll all change once we get to wave our blue passports at Johnny Foreigner
Well. At the moment China has a population of how many billion and only 100,000 odd have got it with new cases dropping. So it is possible to contain it.
Probably been said, but China style containment isn't happening here.
All we got is people voluntarily being at home a bit more than usual, which might slow down the spread a little. But, if I'm honest, I'm expecting Italy to happen here.
Is that some sort of bumsex euphemism, or is ‘onboarding’ some new unnecessary mangling of the English language to somehow make hiring people sound more impressive?
It’s a term commonly used for employing more staff Boomer.
If bumsex is your thing, please use appropriate methods to protect you and your partner(s) and simply wiping your cock with sanitising gel is not deemed effective.
True, it’ll be very interesting to see how lockdown goes in Germany where that particular scar is quite sore.
Despite what you might think, the Germans love a bit of social discipline and toeing the line. They'll get on just fine with a lockdown.
Did you just Godwin this thread?Despite what you might think, the Germans love a bit of social discipline and toeing the line.
By ****s. The sort of ****s who boast that a virus pandemic is great for business. 😉It’s a term commonly used for employing more staff Boomer.
Surely it would've been better (massive logistic operation notwithstanding) to isolate & test everyone coming into the UK when this broke? Still be useful doing it now, seeing as people are still arriving from outbreak zones. Yet I haven't heard anyone in power even suggest doing it?
Despite what you might think, the Germans love a bit of social discipline and toeing the line.
Ah yes, goes hand in hand with their efficiency, predilection for uniform and like of marching music. 🙄
zilog6128 put it much better.
Wow, there's some pointless bellendery appearing on this thread.
And quite a lot of naivity. The NHS makes life and death decisions every day. The problem is that the potential scale of the epidemic is such that the system won't be able to cope and the "bar" of who they could/should save will get higher and higher.
The NHS makes life and death decisions every day.
Of course they do, but not of the sort proposed above - letting some folk die so freelancers can get back to work.
Can i just ask (as theres a lot to get through) are we all going to die from this? Its all sounding quite scary and im getting the impression (from the media) that we arnt being told everything. I mean effectively shutting down Italy it seems a bit scary!
Not saying they are Nazis. I'm saying that when it comes to doing the right thing (or doing what they are told) Germans are very good at it.
In no other country have I ever been berated by a granny because I crossed the road against the red man.
andybrad - yes, covid-19 is going to totally wipe-out the world's population including 'preppers'.
FFS....
Of course they do, but not of the sort proposed above – letting some folk die so freelancers can get back to work.
How many people die as a result of a major recession?
There was quite an outrage against austerity quite literally killing people not too long ago.
I'm not advocating carrying on with reckless sneezing abandon while counting our money; just saying that it needs to be (and hopefully has been) considered when costing the NHS emergency procedures.
the “bar” of who they could/should save will get higher and higher
What by and large worries me is it won't really, we'll just end up with a first come first served system where, folks like my grandparents who are absolutely high risk [would have shipped them selves to dignitas years ago, will never recover because their starting point is a painful, protracted, bedbound/immobile, slow and undignified wait to die so the DNR kicks in] will likely contract it early and end up in hospital for a long time, recieving treatment they don't really want but won't be told "sorry, we need this bed". In the mean time people who could come out the other side healthy simply won't be able to access treatment because of lack of space.
Can i just ask (as theres a lot to get through) are we all going to die from this? Its all sounding quite scary and im getting the impression (from the media) that we arnt being told everything. I mean effectively shutting down Italy it seems a bit scary!
What do you think you are not being told?
Published so far are the number of cases, number recovered, number of fatalities, symptoms, methods of infection and spread and tactics for dealing with the outbreak.
are we all going to die from this?
No.
The data from China is easily googleable. Somewhere around 3% of confirmed cases. Bear in mind, in China, smoking is common, but so are temporary hospitals built in the space of a few days, and a massive lockdown to prevent spread. Here, we have less smoking, but chuff all spare capacity in the NHS and zero appetite for welding people into apartment buildings to enforce the quarantine.
In short, lots of people will die, predominantly the elderly, or those with weakened circulatory or respiratory systems.
Pay attention to what happens in Italy - we are Italy but two weeks behind.
Just to be clear, how much money is a human life worth?
To who?
The graveyards are full of people the world could not do without. CdG
@bikebuoy - "onboarding" is crappy management speak for the induction process that new employees go through.
Can i just ask (as theres a lot to get through) are we all going to die from this? Its all sounding quite scary and im getting the impression (from the media) that we arnt being told everything. I mean effectively shutting down Italy it seems a bit scary!
Its the media, what do you expect, they must be loving this. Especially once everyone's stuck at home browsing the internet all day, clicking on those ads.
Look at how one mention about a very temporary lack of toilet roll on the other side of the world snowballed and led to global TP panic buying and actual shortage in the shops.
Things are basically fine in this corner of Italy. The sun is out and kids are playing outside with their parents. The travel restrictions are probably a wise precaution to slow down the spread of the outbreak. For sure the economic impact will be heavy with many people unable to work. I've seen no signs of panic buying in supermarkets here. Lidl was quieter than normal yesterday.
For sure the economic impact will be heavy with many people unable to work. I’ve seen no signs of panic buying in supermarkets here
genuine question about how the lockdown works....so people can still go shopping? but not to work?
Can i just ask (as theres a lot to get through) are we all going to die from this?
if you want facts, this thread is definitely not the place to come....you'd be as well reading the Daily Fail
Early Tuesday morning a 38-year-old man known as Italy's "Patient No. 1" was moved out of intensive care for the first time since he tested positive in late February in Lombardy, giving doctors what the Associated Press described as "a small victory" in the crisis.
From businessinsider but widely reported.
I'm assuming (hoping) they were otherwise very unwell anyhow. Two plus weeks in icu for a 38 year old early in the outbreak sounds rather more ominous than lots of old people dying.
genuine question about how the lockdown works….so people can still go shopping? but not to work?
Same question - I have elderly grandparents (101 & 95) who my mum (also 70) travels about an hour or so to see at least weekly, they have carers that visit daily, they certainly can't work from home.
I just had confirmation from a sub-contractor in Modena that they are working as normal and there is no restriction on 'travel to work'.
Compare that with China, where one of my team still (this was last Thursday) cannot travel 30 minutes by train to work (in the next city), without a 14 day isolation period.
I can only hope our response is better than Italy's. They have a terrible mortality rate compared to somewhere like South Korea.
Matt
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51751031
They are heading home for lunch with six other children, as parents are taking it in turn to host, sharing the babysitting load during this difficult period.
I guess lockdown isn't really holding already then.
an example of how chinese government are enforcing quarantine
In critical industries like steel making
workers have to stay in the factories & arent allowed to visit their families
https://www.ft.com/content/396def8e-5d82-11ea-8033-fa40a0d65a98
I guess lockdown isn’t really holding already then.
I think the lockdown just stops you travelling between regions, doesn't it?
As I read it, in Italy it's preventing unnecessary travel (so you need a reason to be on public transport etc) and congregation really. It's not anything like the lockdown in China.
My rather flippant point was more closing schools etc is to minimise contact and circulation, but having kids gathering else where instead simply to keep them entertained* rather minimises any benefit of that.
*was the inference I took from the article in general though that's completely subjective.
Surely it would’ve been better (massive logistic operation notwithstanding) to isolate & test everyone coming into the UK when this broke? Still be useful doing it now, seeing as people are still arriving from outbreak zones. Yet I haven’t heard anyone in power even suggest doing it?
Everyone? Do you have any idea how many people were outside the UK when it broke? Do you even have a clear view on when you would start doing this? The day someone got sick in china? The day china publicly declared a problem? the day china locked down Wuhan?
We DID quarantine people coming back from the highest risk areas. That was easy because there were very few of them. We DID test people coming back from wider areas who had potential symptoms. That made sense because testing asymptomatic people is potentially misleading - assuming this behaves like other viruses a person can be infected but not yet have sufficient virus to detect in swab or blood samples... come back a few days later and they will be swarming with the stuff. We can't test everyone - we simply don't have the resources (and frankly its pointless as the treatment is the same anyway, so testing is for epidemiology, and prioritising containment not treatment decisions - I predict we will stop routine testing if it hits 10% of the population).
Now just imagine for a moment you were travelling somewhere, shit happens somewhere else and you land back in Britain to be told you will be locked up for 2 weeks, you're not ill, you're not coming from an area with known illness, and haven't spoken to anyone who was sick, but you are being denied free movement back into your own country; all without prior warning this might happen before you left (or possibly even before you go on the return flight). Are your rights less important than the 1:1M chance you might have an infection? Balance that against the cost, the missing a loved one's funeral, or birth, or birthday, or getting fired for not coming to work, or all the teachers who don't come back after midterm, or pupils on school trips who can't see their parents for an extra two weeks. And if, as seems likely, this virus is "out the bag" then it will forever more be in circulation - so then the UK has to maintain this "air lock" forever. Thats the end of trade, travel, and most of our supply routes.
I can only hope our response is better than Italy’s. They have a terrible mortality rate compared to somewhere like South Korea.
the number 1 difference between being able to keep the mortality rate down so far seems to be the number of hospital beds available (China were able to create 100s of 1000s of beds in a few weeks)
number of hospital beds per 10,000 people which isnt exactly the same as spare beds, but...
1 Japan 13.3
2 South Korea 10.92
3 Russia 9.07
4 Germany 8.28
5 Austria 7.64
6 Hungary 7.04
7 Czech Republic 6.7
8 Poland 6.61
9 Lithuania 7.28
10 France 6.28
11 Slovakia 5.8
12 Belgium 5.93
13 Latvia 5.8
14 Hong Kong 5.4
15 Estonia 5.01
16 Luxembourg 5.17
17 Switzerland 4.68
18 Slovenia 4.55
19 China 3.31
20 Greece 4.24
21 Australia 3.74
22 Norway 3.86
23 Portugal 3.39
24 Netherlands 4.18
25 Finland 4.87
26 Italy 3.31
27 Iceland 3.22
28 Israel 3.09
29 Spain 2.96
30 Ireland 2.56
31 Turkey 2.65
32 United States 2.89
33 New Zealand 2.78
34 Denmark 3.07
35 UNITED KINGDOM 2.76
36 Canada 2.71
37 Sweden 2.59
38 Chile 2.16
39 Colombia 1.54
40 Mexico 1.44
UK has lost 20,000 hospital beds since 2010 & thats on top of an ageing population & chronic bed blocking due to social care cuts
Italy has number of factors against it which mean it's death rate is higher, especially it's higher average age.
I've not been out today yet, as I'm working from home, but the bins have been collected, the buses are running, and there are a cars on the Autostrada, albeit fewer than normal.
I think there are different restrictions in different area, but in this sleepy corner most people will be a able to travel the short distance for work, but city to city travel will be more restricted. We haven't bothered doing much shopping because yes you can get out to the supermarkets etc.
the00
Licence to mill?
The makers of hand sanitiser are certainly rubbing their hands right now
By *. The sort of * who boast that a virus pandemic is great for business.
C’mon, y’all know I’m a ****... just thought I’d reinforce the stereotype.
And despite what you may think about the term “onboarding” its a well know worn out word that replaces 6 words. Time is money, wasted words = misinterpretation.
Get wiv it Boomerz unt Millenials.
A friend has just booked flights to finale for mid March. He says the trails will be quiet. Selfish knob or clever boy . YOU decide….
Is he still going?
Personally I prefer to use "indoctrinating". It sounds much more sinister.
And if, as seems likely, this virus is “out the bag” then it will forever more be in circulation – so then the UK has to maintain this “air lock” forever. Thats the end of trade, travel, and most of our supply routes.
Not really.
Personally I prefer to use “indoctrinating”. It sounds much more sinister.
Have you considered using "re-education"?
A friend has just booked flights to finale for mid March. He says the trails will be quiet. Selfish knob or clever boy . YOU decide….
Just been speaking to my mate Enrico, who guides in Finale. They are not shuttling for fear of any crashes and having to turn up at hospital with a broken finger or worse.
Went to my regular hospital appointment this morning. Bit dispiriting seeing staff members still coughing into their hands and then carrying on as normal. Asked the doc if he'd cleaned his hands (and the equipment he was going to rest on my face) between patients. He said he'd done the former, and I was free to grab an alcohol wipe if I thought wiping down the equipment was necessary.
I'd sat and watched a long line of elderly, vulnerable patients trot into the room before me. Sure, the chances of any of them (or me) having the virus are still pretty low, but I was hopeful that, even in outpatients, the staff would be striving for best practice at this point.