Deceptively ‘fit’ Boris Johnson is apparently 5’9″ and between 16.5 and 17 stone in weight.
Constitution of a hardened bon viveur
Appreciate your efforts TiRed. How are you?
Feeling a lot better, thanks. Pain in the lungs is diminishing and breathlessness much decreased. I went for a short walk yesterday evening.
So you’re predicting a strong rise from your time series method?
The model captures the weekly fluctuations, it predicts that after the weekend there will be a peak in reporting - that's been seen week-on-week due to reporting delays.
As for describing the tail and effects of removal of lock-down, well the model assumes things will remain unchanged. more contacts means more transmission means longer tail. I can model this quite easily by switching the model to logistic rather than non-logistic growth. Now the model for the UK is reasonably well-qualified. I can also solve it stochastically - as one does for small numbers. Imperial's model is stochastic and individual based - there are 50 million individuals simulated. Mine is not.
It won't matter as qualitatively, the effects will be clear - relaxing lock-down will prolong the tail. Complete removal, subject to knowing the proportion infected, and welcome back to a 2-day doubling time.
BTW the odds ratio for ITU is about 4:1 male to female. You don't see those odds by chance. I believe this has to be immune system related. Women are in a state of slight immune suppression compared with men and the odds of autoimmune disease is almost exactly opposite (1:4).
So 2/3 weeks in call it 4 or 5 in Europe and the talk is turning to opening up.
Is herd immunity still a dirty word? Cause it sounds awful like the strategies are shifting.
Who'd a think it.
I also get the sense the people are getting bored...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/04/09/boris-worried-lockdown-has-gone-far-can-end/
Interesting article, thanks for sharing.
A more useful message might be that being a big, fat biffer puts you at increased risk of health problems. Instead we’re told that it shows the virus can hit anyone no matter how healthy or young. Hancock, on the other hand, as well as being younger than Johnson, is clearly not obese, but the media always note his age rather than his weight.
Stress, overwork and lack of sleep are pretty poisonous to the immune system as well and both Boris and Hancock will have been absolutely maxed out on all three over the last few weeks. Bruno Bruins collapsed due to the intensity of the situation and he wasn't even ill!
Good info here
I’m not even clicking that, and I advise others to behave likewise. That site is just another conspiracy theory tool for conspiracy theory tools. We need less of that right now.
TiRed - do you have a similar graph for USA? With their population size and fragmented governance it feels their numbers could get very ugly.
Stress, overwork and lack of sleep are pretty poisonous to the immune system
I had been wondering the same thing in the context of - what if people aren't a symptomatic they just haven't had a big enough trigger stress to activate. You get stressed it flares up - might explain the rumoured re-infections. Might not be the viral load that is doing the damage in the medical profession, could be the stress levels. Anyway that's random thought for the day, if the virus did behave this way it would mess with herd immunity by infection as a theory. Ultimately we still don't seem to have enough information about after.
Women are in a state of slight immune suppression compared with men and the odds of autoimmune disease is almost exactly opposite (1:4).
Can you expand on that please. Surely a suppressed immune system is bad?
IIRC the virus isn't the killer, it's the immune system response or overresponse rather.
So a lower immune system response is potentially better.
I’m not even clicking that, and I advise others to behave likewise. That site is just another conspiracy theory tool for conspiracy theory tools. We need less of that right now.
This applies to the Telegraph link too.
Can you expand on that please. Surely a suppressed immune system is bad?
When you get ill, the symptoms you get, fever, cough, snottines etc are from your bodies immune system reacting to get rid of the bug.
In the case of cornoavirus when it goes bad it's because of an inflammation over-reaction in your lungs, that makes it dangerous.
TiRed – do you have a similar graph for USA? With their population size and fragmented governance it feels their numbers could get very ugly.
Interested too. Have family in FL and been trying to keep updated on what's happening over there. If you ignore the nonsense coming from the federal govt/NY accepted obviously, they actually seem to be keeping the confirmed no of infections/hosp admissions/deaths down in many States. It could all go very wrong very quickly obviously.
TiRed – do you have a similar graph for USA?
And every other country and Unitary authority in England and Wales 🙂
Does anyone have any recent information on the strains of virus? Does Europe have all of the same strain?
TiRed - of the 3 graphs you've posted, the one for the UK shows by far the most scatter of data and by far the least resemblance to the epidemiological curve. I wonder if those 2 observations are related, and if planning in the UK is hampered by having collected a very poor data set?
Al your other graphs have looked cautiously optimistic and plausible, TiRed. The US one looks far too optimistic with a peak far too early, time wil tell. Some states we're continuing life pretty much as normal until very recently so I find the rapid turnaround difficult to believe.
Thanks - interesting. With the states locking down after us I was interested to see if you expected the rest of their major metropolitan areas to kick off.
It’s a global model. So some countries will have converged better than others. That’s why I have a near-casting model to check. Italy has converged. The others have not, so forecasting should be viewed cautiously. To my knowledge, no other model projections have this QC. For the U.K. and US, believe only the near-cast with confidence. For another week or so, anyway.
I have been following this thread for sometime now, specifically Tired's contributions, and I thank you for the work you have done and sharing it with us.
Being from Northern Ireland I would be interested in your graphs and predictions for Ireland as a whole and Northern Ireland separately if you have these.
Myself and my wife have also had mild symptoms, tight chested and coughs and I have a great deal of sympathy for people who are suffering more severely as I can imagine the panic setting in as people struggle to breath.
I have found that gentle zwift sessions helps the chest, probably placebo but need to burn off all the choccy eggs:)
FFS the Daily Fail
he's not the messiah he's a very naughty boy !!!!
Meanwhile, somewhere near Edinburgh:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-52260459
~
Look forward to seeing your mansucript as I can't quite figure out what's happening from brief descriptions 🙂
Interesting report from the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre.
https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/c31dd38d-d77b-ea11-9124-00505601089b
Data:
https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/e7821f3c-2f7b-ea11-9124-00505601089b
This table is interesting:
The table above is the demographics of a large group of icu patients with Covid compared to patients with normal viral pneumonia in the UK. My take aways were (and as a punter, i'd love to hear some of the thoughts of the better informed!)
- Men are much more likely to get it bad than women
- If you're fat you're screwed
- Something weird is going on with the ethnicity - why isn't it impacting all ethnicities equally (in proportion to the % in population)? I guess it might be socio-economic, but the differences seem quite large even for that?? esp compared with normal virual pneumonia
- The media habit of saying "they had underlying health conditions", is a bit misleading - they're hardly at deaths door if they don't need any assistance normally.
That table is interesting, for ethnicity, I would caution as contacts and attack rate may be different due to contacts. The male to female odds ratio is as I said. And of note, look at the sample size of ITU patients with confirmed COVID19 is a relatively short period of time - 4K cases.
And yes ARDS, which is the killer, is an exaggerated immune reponse to the pathogen in the lung. Caused by massive systemic immune reaction that leads to white cells attacking the lungs, micro clotting in the organs and eventual body shut down. I can’t see past immunology here. Age and comorbidities will also be a factor, ethnicity, perhaps. But you don’t miss and odds ratio of 4, even in simple observational data!
"– If you’re fat you’re screwed"
Nope. You're more screwed, but people over 25 BMI were, IIRC, over 65% of the population anyway. Quite sad that I'm contributing to that 🙁 I'd speculate that those with higher BMI would be more likely to have related health complications.
On the ethnicity, the explanation I've seen is the split between rural and urban living.
Enough of my speculation, my appreciation goes to TiRed and his excellent work.
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson_MP/status/1249314764880314368
happy easter the saviour has risen and returned.
Blessed are the meek
Thanks for posting those links Ewan.
Meh.....shrug.......I gave him as much thought and consideration as the pheasants that end up flattened on the roads, that man and his government have over 10,000 deaths on their hands due to their incompetence at governance and lack of planning despite being warned in January regarding the pandemic.
Zero thoughts given to him,
The ethnicity data is not as stark when matched to local population...might be socio economic
Data underlying Figure 6
Percentage of patients
Column 1 - covid 19
Column 2 - Viral pneumonia
Column 3 - Matched to local population
White - 66 - 88 - 76
Mixed - 01 - 01 - 03
Asian - 14 - 06 - 13
Black - 12 - 03 - 07
Other - 06 - 02 - 02
Don't forget the ethnicity demographic data is skewed towards youth for the BAME averages, but the hospitalised tend to be middle-aged or older.
He's out and off to chequers which is not his home, or his flat.
Yeah, and his dad sodded off to his second home in Cornwall. All in it together....
Sorry, repetitive question - are the reported deaths just those in hospital still or do they include out of hospital deaths as well now?
MCTD - IIRC the Scottish "daily" figures only include hospital. There is a weekly update (Wednesdays??) that includes all those in nursing homes/external too. Not sure what the other countries are doing but I think it's hospital only.
Meh…..shrug…….I gave him as much thought and consideration as the pheasants that end up flattened on the roads, that man and his government have over 10,000 deaths on their hands due to their incompetence at governance and lack of planning despite being warned in January regarding the pandemic.
Absolute inaccurate bullshit. I’m not keen on Boris either but there isn’t a government in the world that’s stopped all deaths. Different actions may have reduced deaths, or they may not, but he’s not responsible for the total. It’d pay you to remember that all countries have used thier scientific advisors to try to navigate around it. It was new, sudden and with huge impact - a massive task under pressure and responsibility. Could you have done better?
Not the first time Boris has nearly moved me to tears.....
A changed man?
Let's hope it lasts.
It's now up to us to hold him to his words.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52213246
As I thought. New "total" figures for Scotland are released on Wednesdays to include any weekend backlog and the non-hospital numbers. I can't find a confirmatory link for the rest of the UK, though this page offers some degree of perspective on the non-hospital numbers https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52196978
It was new, sudden and with huge impact
In some countries. We were lucky to be able to learn from what happened there, but we didn’t… well, not soon enough.
Thanks Scotroutes, I'd got confused as to whether they were included or corrected.
The critical care article is interesting. I read it it’s entirety. Remember that the comparator is “other viral pneumonia“. Which is basically influenza.
Much of the difference comes down to presentation and management of respiratory. If you have COVID19 you present with slightly worse scores and require more respiratory support. If you need supplemental oxygen and/or forced pressure mask, then your odds are about 80% survival. If you need full respirator then sadly they are about 33%. The proportion presenting needing even Basic support for breathing is much higher than the control (influenza). Support for other organs is about the same. COVID19 presents a very different lung aetiology. There will be some on here who are dealing with that on a daily basis (@crikey)
The data is univariate, but mortality increases with age, but is high from 50’s onwards. It is limited due to the numbers with prolonged critical care stays absent from the data.
[TL:DR] if you are admitted to critical care and need a ventilator, it’s not good news. But if you don’t, then things are much much better. And it is definitely #notflu
Kryton57,
I could have done better.
I would have told the airlines to 'stay at home' late January.
Might of cost a billion, would have saved a trillion.
The lack of preparedness on the part of the NHS looks the most damaging now. It looks like we got to mid-March and they suddenly realised that PPE and ventilators would be a problem. Note I'm not criticising regular NHS staff but those tasked with looking after these strategic matters.
Could you have done better?
You know what I reckon 3 poster from this thread advised by TiRed could have done better!!
Kryton57 : Could you have done better?
Our government was woefully and criminal underprepared despite advance warning so yeah....I could have done better.