Is it realistic to assume that the UK is still running a fortnight behind Spain and Italy?
https://twitter.com/JamesManning/status/1249002474305990657
“Three hundred thousand and thirty four, nine hundred and seventy four thousand tests carried out. How many?
Bruneep,
Where's Diane Abbot when you need her.
Is it realistic to assume that the UK is still running a fortnight behind Spain and Italy?
Almost. Two weeks behind Italy and a week behind Spain. Roughly. We should be over the peak and solidly declining in two weeks time. How long we bump along on the peak is debatable but I’ve always said it was identified to within two weeks. Rate of decline will depend on efficiency of lock down.
The govt don’t seem to be able to share plots other than the most rudimentary data and never on a log scale! I’ve not seen a projection from them yet. BTW, they’ve seen mine.
kelvin
SubscriberQuick, deploy the non-apology!
“I’m sorry if people are upset because staff/family have died because we didn’t preload the NHS and care system with extra PPE in preparation for the epidemic that seemed unavoidable months ago. But you could just be more like me, shrug it off, assume staff will just do their job without adequate protection, because they care even if I seemingly do not.’
NHS staff as pawns in a game of chicken with a poorly understood virus. Are we allowed to be **** angry? Or should we just nod?
It’s pretty much that from family & friends who work in the NHS.
They feel like cannon fodder, but despite this they have an underlying sense of duty to carry on as they are decent people.
I'm sorry you all think i should apologise for not caring more of you will die than should, but I'm not going to.
You know, I really don't warm to her.
Was PPE actually available to stockpile in January when the government should have twigged? Every country in the world was after it, and China was shutting down.
We should have had PPE before this even started.
Where is Priti Patel from? Just wonderin’ about her accent as she seems unable to pronounce any word ending in “-ing” without dropping the “g”. Is this a regional thing I’ve not encountered yet?
I can't believe a man from Aviemore actually wrote this 🙂
TiRed - if I understand the UK graph correctly then we are roughly 20% higher on cases per day than predicted and a bit more on deaths? If so does this point to a serious lack of testing making the cases figure possibly suppressed and our curve projection a bit imperfect?
I'm of the opinion that as we don't have mass testing up to speed yet that we don't really know how many cases there are. This makes it very hard indeed to gauge whether the lockdown is working or not and also whether the NHS systems are better or worse than predicted for preventing cases turning into deaths. Please feel free to correct my thinking as I've been following your explanations as much as I can throughout but as maths was never my strong point I can sometimes end up going down the wrong rabbit hole!
Turns out those 3.5million test kits Hancock ordered were 'sold as seen'
So after 3 weeks of hiding Patel numberwanged the press conference, I suppose she'll not be back, who's up next, 1000 yard state Raab, many homes Jenrick, no information Sharma, blown it that just leaves signal , Gove & captain BS-Hancock . I bet they can't wait for Johnson to return!
A lump of dog shite on a stick would give a more reasoned/informative/factual press conference than any of these **** muppets that we’ve had the misfortune to suffer so far
On the topic of model predictions:
It's a simple SEIR model with breakpoint in R on the date of lockdown. Seems to describe what's going on pretty well (in a range of places I've tried, including Hubei, Lombardy, and various European countries). Rather better than the MRC/IC predictions in fact.
I suppose she’ll not be back, who’s up next
I finally got my important letter from the government. I was suspicious rather than reminding me of the state of affairs a couple weeks back it would actually be a note asking me to confirm when I could do the conference.
In some ways I feel sorry for her. She couldnt exactly turn round and go "look I was trying to make all the foreign NHS staff leave the country. It was Hancock who was supposed to be sorting out the PPE and failed. Go and speak with him".
somafunk
SubscriberA lump of dog shite on a stick would give a more reasoned/informative/factual press conference than any of these **** muppets that we’ve had the misfortune to suffer so far
Beautifully put.
I'm stealing that for use elsewhere.
that we don’t really know how many cases there are. This makes it very hard indeed to gauge whether the lockdown is working or not
The model uses a parametric form that is not compatible with conventional mass action. The fact that this is a statistically much better description of the observations (in all countries) provides the evidence of lockdown efficiency.
The other prediction is precisely all that is challenging with time series forecasting. Predictions for the future are based on predictions which have uncertainty. That error is on a log scale. My method for near-casting is quite different and novel. Prediction error is about 15-20%. My parametric model has 15% interval because the dataset is global, not limited to one country.
I’ve done the same for the U.K. 164 regions. There is very strong support that a logistic equation (SIR model) is much poorer than other models.
TiRed - as always, the voice of facts; thanks for that.
Don't want to describe multiple other posts as '....a bag of bollocks' but....so many candidates.
It's Easter so, not for today.
Sorry tired if you are predicting 500 deaths per day over the next week you're seriously deluded. THat's just not compatible with what is going on with the epidemic. Well, it's theoretically possible perhaps, but extremely unlikely and there's no way you could predict it now.
Maybe I've misunderstood what the numbers on your graph mean. Very pretty anyway.
Maybe I’ve misunderstood what the numbers on your graph mean
No maybe about it
The model uses a parametric form that is not compatible with conventional mass action. The fact that this is a statistically much better description of the observations (in all countries) provides the evidence of lockdown efficiency.
So effect of lockdown is similar in all countries?
Interesting considering how different countries have handled things, (I suppose what happens next in China regards any second peak will be the one to watch)
Is it up on biorxiv yet
This article has an interesting take too (Nelson v chummy with government so pretty reliable, if u get past the fawning)
Apparently the behavioural scientists that are steering a lot of the governments thinking assumed many more people would ignore the lockdown & carry on with school & work & it's costing £bns more than expected
Explains (partly) why government messaging has been so half-arsed
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/04/09/boris-worried-lockdown-has-gone-far-can-end/
Don’t want to describe multiple other posts as ‘….a bag of bollocks’ but….so many candidates.
It’s Easter so, not for today.
And yet you did , self pwn? 😀
Sorry tired if you are predicting 500 deaths per day over the next week you’re seriously deluded. THat’s just not compatible with what is going
I’m not. I said I use a short-term time series model for near-casting (7-days). Only When that agrees with the parametric epidemiological model, do I THEN have any confidence in the forecast to longer times. Look at the U.K. prediction. Then look at the Italy prediction. Spot which one has converged? The U.K. prediction is up to about 1200/d next week (wiggly yellow line). It’s been about right for the past two weeks, sadly. Including the early rise catching up over the weekend. Hope that is clear?
Appreciate your efforts TiRed. How are you?
Sorry I was reading numbers off the Italy curve by mistake. Hadn’t realised you had posted a second one when I was zooming in! So you’re predicting a strong rise from your time series method?
@TiRed - thanks for your continued sharing.
I still have concerns over the tail of this. It's not as simplistic as say a Poisson distn (paucity of data, very low frequency events with large consequences). I know you're iteratively reducing the uncertainty but it still troubles me somewhat as I'm struggling to articulate why it's not quite there yet. Do you have a F**** factor.. for the ~10% population who don't behave and continue to transmit?
Hope you're back to full strength soon.
Sorry, bit of a cock up on image posting, meant to post different image. First time trying, at least it didn't post something nsfw!
Anyhow, Interesting that a month from first infection Kenya managed to get the numbers going in a downward direction, from a high of 30 a day on the 2nd April down to 5 a day for the last couple of days. Interested because other half out there at the moment looking after 93 year old dad whose quite ill [though not with covid]. Been quite worried as they don't have the medical resources out there that we do, fell slightly reassured looking at this graph though still keeping fingers crossed.
Oh for a graph like this in the UK.
Edit:
What's the best way to post an image here? posting video is easy but the forum advice is a bit baffling.
..
Good info here citing it's sources that doesn't support the current media hysteria.
Busy parks and shaming sunbathers...
https://www.redpepper.org.uk/the-politics-of-covid-19-busy-parks-and-public-blame/
Good info here citing it’s sources that doesn’t support the current media hysteria.
I've seen a few of these articles. None of them mention the people dying in hospital corridors or being buried in mass graves.
No mention of the children dying of it too or those in relatively good health, no it only mentions those with illnesses that you can survive from or have prolonged life.
Busy parks and shaming sunbathers…
You call passing the buck I call being an arrogant ****. Just follow the rules.
Most of those links have been posted here, a few by me. Although I’ve hopefully posted in the context “curious, but needs more data to mean anything”
They’ve all got flaws and until we have large scale testing including for those that have had it, they don’t really mean a whole lot.
A sample size of 176 isn’t really enough, even more so when we don’t know if some prove to be pre-symptomatic.
That’s before you get onto the way that website is trying to paint the situation.
French media seem to be reporting British news that isn't on British media unless I've missed something - nothing in the Guardian at 8:53 on the following points anyhow anyhow.
Sud Ouest published the following numbers for 2200 patients in intensive care in England, Wales and NI: 73% of those in intensuve care are men 47.8% of men survive survive compared to 55.4% women (yes I know that adds up to more than 100%, think about it). 73% of patients are obese or overweight.
Europe 1 reports that if you are blood group "O" your risk goes down 30%.
New Yorks Times reports states 80% of admissions are men.
Prof Derek Hill form Univiersity College London says men develop more serious conditions and over weight patients are higher risk.
Ouest France reports 50% of patients have high blood pressure and over 70% are overweight or obese.
On the subject of data. As we move away from the Boris Weekend infections. And that public transport, office working, social gatherings all drastically cut.
Will we have data (eventually) on how further transmissions are happening?
You’ll have the obvious routes such as food shopping. Healthcare workers.
But what about those ignoring the guidance? The Hens I think Drac refers to them as.
So effect of lockdown is similar in all countries?
It seems reasonable to assume that the the main beneficial acts (getting most people out of public transport etc) that you’re then into diminishing returns?
Banning cycling for example. Or only permitting dog walkers to take their dog out within 1km if home.
Sud Ouest published the following numbers for 2200 patients in intensive care in England, Wales and NI: 73% of those in intensuve care are men 47.8% of men survive survive compared to 55.4% women (yes I know that adds up to more than 100%). 73% of patients are obese or overweight.
The higher rates for men has been reported by UK media, although not necessarily for the UK. Spain was the example is saw.
Edit https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52197594
You call passing the buck I call being an arrogant ****. Just follow the rules.
Interesting article on Denmark on the BBC. I'm assuming/hoping that the government and its advisors are watching these countries coming out of lockdown very closely to help plan for our own exit strategy
BBC News - Coronavirus: Why Denmark is taking steps to open up again
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52226763
You have to be careful with interpreting these stats
eg: 73% of patients are obese or overweight.
Something like 65% of the population is BMI 25 or over. So it's not that you're 3x more likely to have an issue if you're overweight (25:75) but more like 10-15% (73/65 = 1.12)
Not saying we shouldn't all try to be healthier mind.
Deceptively 'fit' Boris Johnson is apparently 5'9" and between 16.5 and 17 stone in weight.
Edukator those Sud Ouest stats sound very similar to an email update my wife got from an ANP group she is involved with.
You don't think a Doctor pontificating on economics is a little outside his professional expertise?