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Unless I'm very much mistaken, cases and deaths are both not merely higher than last Sunday, but also higher than the Sunday before that. I think it's very optimistic to claim confidently that R<1, as SAGE did just two days ago. In fact, even though R<1 is possible, I don't see how they can possibly justify their estimate of 0.7-0.9.
Wise not to compare single days in that way… not that I disagree with your concerns at all.
It's transmitted down the phone! 😱
Imagine being the track and trace person who phoned someone's mobile and heard it ring somewhere in their office. Interesting to think of 7 cases as a cluster, compared to Leicester where even now it's running at I think about 40 cases a day, more than the whole country...
MoreCashThanDash
SubscriberIt’s transmitted down the phone!
This is what happens if you send all your telephone sanitisers away on the B Ark.
This is what happens if you send all your telephone sanitisers away on the B Ark.
🙂
weekend numbers are so low as to be pointless, but the tue-sat cumulative deaths is still dropping week on week. Cases is definitely flat not dropping anymore.
As I said a few days ago, sadly cases are rising In the U.K. and this is a trend across Europe. Reported numbers are small for some countries, but on a log scale, the deceleration and flattening is consistent across countries. I’m not a fan of R, other than to say it’s >1. Deaths are so low on some countries that the trend is harder to discern, there also appears to be perhaps a slightly longer lag than previously noted to cases.
The steepness of that initial epidemic is still breathtaking when I look at it now. Doubling time was n the US is much longer now - about a week.
U.K. deaths modelled with some fun stats
I agree re kelvin's comment above on dangers of single day comparisons but the recent trend as TiReD says is also flat to up. I also look at the direct 7 day difference as a quick and easy comparison as this takes out the weekly cycle but is of course quite noisy.
It’s transmitted down the phone! 😱
Didnt think 5G was working yet.
I see France has made wearing masks mandatory with fines for non compliance. Does that mean you can now get fined for both wearing and not wearing a face covering, if you're a Muslim at least?
Surely the ONLYway to get on top of this is to be actively community testing “at risk” people and finding the asymptomatic ones early. We are only using half our testing capacity, so it’s possible.
Ok time for some good news. The university of Southampton with a biotech company called SynAirGen (who’s shares just climbed 360%) have been testing inhaled interferon as a means of preventing severe COVID19. They’ve just reported an 80%, yes 80% reduction in severe cases.
That’s what a proper antiviral can do. As I have said since the beginning, remdesivir is not an antiviral at the doses tested. Synairgen needed 400 patients (just) for their trial, Gilead are using 10x this number to detect a much smaller effect.
Now that IS good news. An ability to reduce the CFR by 80%.
Would that also stop minor cases becoming worse, keeping people out of ICU?
Yes. They are now looking at home nebuliser use in a trial of early treatment. The important part is that some translational biology shows a 3-4 log10 drop in viral replication is possible with interferon. That’s translated into benefit in patients. Other drugs that achieve the same reductions should have the same effect. Remdesivir and hydroxychloroquine cannot achieve such falls at any administratrable doses.
So what about the people who received a placebo in the trials... how does that work?
Doctor: Hi Patient Here you go.. here's a medicine that may well save your life but it might be a placebo and you could still die.
But the point of the trial is to see if the drug is effective. They don't know whether it is when they start the trial, conceivably it might have made things worse. You have to have palcebos to do a proper trial.
Doctor: Hi Patient Here you go.. here’s a medicine that may well save your life but it might be a placebo and you could still die.
Yep, that's how medical trials work once it gets to the sharp pointy end.
Looks like the vacine works as well..a double bit of good news for today!
Normally one conducts an independent interim analysis at regular stages to assess whether one should stop because the drug doesn’t work, or joy, there is overwhelming evidence it does! The latter is uncommon - they haven’t said that this was a formal interim analysis, but based on size and recruitment, it may have been.
Early Oncology trials are normally “open label”. Everyone get treatment. Confirmatory trials are against “standard of care” - current best treatment. SOC changes all the time as new treatments become available. In other diseases, placebo is often now unethical too (MS for example).
If football was a clinical trial, Liverpool would never have won the Champions League. I mean, 3-0 down at half time...
Those are the rules of the game I play.
Surley seasonal Flu will be at its lowest levels for like, ever. Social distancing, lack of mass gatherings, extra hygene routines should all help to keep it at very low levels.
Now, if only I could buy an interferon nebuliser I could persuade my wife it’s safe for our Greek sailing holiday!!
I can’t see any differentiation from injected interferon beta. The lung concentrations that inhibit viral replication look achievable and the drug is already approved. I wondered at the time whether MS patients might be protected. Unfortunately long acting interferon beta isn’t approved and the alpha isn’t as potent.
It does show up remdesivir though for what it really is - mildly active.
Surley seasonal Flu will be at its lowest levels for like, ever. Social distancing, lack of mass gatherings, extra hygene routines should all help to keep it at very low levels.
The only forced social distancing I see these days is queuing for the cafe or supermarkets or some other shop type and lack of large events etc.
Earlier today at an NT property we visited we queued nicely spaced out outside for the cafe, as soon as you're inside there wasnt any social distancing, grabbing food and standing face to face with the staff.
Yesterday went to a restaurant and other than no cutlery on the table social distancing wasn't followed. (No face masks etc)
Not that I'm saying I'm annoyed about any of it nor am I religiously adhering to it but to say its happening is a lie these days, we know full well we're spending time with family and not adhering to the 1m plus rules. Social media is rife with it people showing off their naughty antics.
Question for those that follow these things - I've now seen 3 'British breakthrough' type reports - two relating to treatment and now the Oxford vaccine. I can't recall seeing many reports of similar breakthroughs being achieved elsewhere. Is that a fair reflection of the facts (ie UK is actually good at science) or is it just our national media not reporting that the French, Germans, USA etc have done some amazing stuff
BBC report I'm currently reading mentions others...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53469839
Valneva, BioNtech/Pfizer & Moderna are named... and ...
In total there are 23 coronavirus vaccines in clinical trials around the world and another 140 in early stage develoment.
Not that I’m saying I’m annoyed about any of it nor am I religiously adhering to it but to say its happening is a lie these days, we know full well we’re spending time with family and not adhering to the 1m plus rules. Social media is rife with it people showing off their naughty antics.
I was on the ferry back from Stornoway yesterday...
They're only taking 50% of passengers.
Everyone has to wear a mask at all times on board.
No catering/shop available, so bring your own (mask down to eat obviously).
Every second seat taped off to enforce distancing.
Lots of "please leave 1 metre" signs and a tannoy saying "leave 2m when you can" and "wash hands regularly"
Lots of sanitizer bottles around.
While we are waiting on the car deck to disembark, one of the staff strikes up a conversation with the driver of a SUV. Just as the ramp is lowering and the guy is about to drive off, the sailor removes one of his big work gloves and shakes the driver by the hand.
In total there are 23 coronavirus vaccines in clinical trials around the world and another 140 in early stage develoment.
OK I should've been more specific - the hunt for a vaccine has been global from the start, but I was more focussing on the likes of the interferon results reported today and remdesivir a few weeks back. I'd assume there are similar steps being made elsewhere but don't recall hearing much about them.
Was in Scotland back end of last week, and there's a noticeably greater level of both acceptance of mask wearing, and trying to heed SD rules than south of the border.
The interferon trial is a little left-field from a small biotech who’ve been in the game for years looking at asthma and COPD. Remdesivir is being tested in a 4000 patient registration trial by the US owners, Gilead.
Big trials are generally done by big pharma - because they are very expensive to run (50k/patient is not an unreasonable figure). The exceptions are the NHS COVID RECOVERY trial (testing generics) and the big “platform” trials where multiple treatments are to be tested. Governments are funding those trials with companies providing the drugs.
Ok time for some good news. The university of Southampton with a biotech company called SynAirGen (who’s shares just climbed 360%) have been testing inhaled interferon as a means of preventing severe COVID19. They’ve just reported an 80%, yes 80% reduction in severe cases.
Good news indeed. But now can we expect Trump to buy up the world supply of it as he did with Remdesivir.
My thoughts about much of the press coverage of the ongoing advances…
[in summary, are we that much better than Trump really?]
https://twitter.com/brokenbottleboy/status/1285252978677559297?s=21
French PM Castex today "we might have to close the border with Spain due to the rising number of local outbreaks"
Sturgeon today "Aye, just awa' on yer holidays to Spain, dinnae worry aboot quarantine when ye get back hame".
Perhaps Macron might like to look a little closer to home. French cases stopped declining a while ago too.
Good news indeed. But now can we expect Trump to buy up the world supply of it as he did with Remdesivir.
What kind of stupid government would sell Trump all the stock of their own medicine?
Oh, hang on....🤦♂️
Analysis of the documents suggests that the Government has not only recklessly sped ahead with lifting restrictions knowing that it would probably trigger a COVID-19 resurgence, but did so in pursuit of the belief that the virus is so unstoppable that it is bound to become a ‘fifth’ seasonal coronavirus like those that cause common flus and colds.
Nice bit of conspiracy theory in the morning.
When I come to theories, I generally favour cockup over conspiracy. But with this government, who are both deeply corrupt and extremely stupid, it's so hard to tell.
Report from a London pub that I'm familiar with - widespread refusal to give contact details, ignoring staff instructiopn on where to sit, belligerent attitude towards staff members, one customer saying she wouldnt give her details as she's going on holiday in 2 weeks and doesn't want to have to self-isolate.
This is why we can't have nice things.
Nice bit of conspiracy theory in the morning.
To be fair, TiRed of this parish has been suggesting this as a probable long term outcome from pretty early on in the crisis.
It’s only a “conspiracy theory” to those who haven’t bothered to read the SAGE minutes which are only a quick google away.
This “ends” in two ways: a vaccine, or 70% of us having had it.
Nb latest serological analysis from Iquitos (Peru) has 71% infection rate. So much for the kooky denialist dark immunity nonsense.
But with this government, who are both deeply corrupt and extremely stupid, it’s so hard to tell.
Herd immunity is no bad thing but its a bit far fetched to say that the government is aiming for a second wave by 'recklessly easing lockdown restrictions'.
We're doing the same as the other European countries.
We’re doing the same as the other European countries.
> checks contact tracing app is installed and working <
Oh yeah, the same.
We’re doing the same as the other European countries.
No we really are not ( or you down south). R rates and so on much higher here and a much quicker loosening of restrictions in England and no mandatory masks
Edited - cba’ed anymore
We’re doing the same as the other European countries.
> checks contact tracing app is installed and working <
Oh yeah, the same.
> checks new case rates <
Oh yeah, the same.
A little more good news on excess mortality this week - there isn't any. Only one age group (F 65-75 excess 35 deaths). Also the trend is tracking the mean rather than tanking below it - hence "they would have died anyway" is currently not supported, but we shall see for the 2H2020.
As for conspiracy - I couldn't see it either. Unless conspiracy theory = ignorance. SARS-COV2 is likely to become the fifth seasonal endemic coronavirus. There won't be herd immunity. There will be protection and better treatments. How one controls its spread through society without excessive mortality is the key question. It's when not if.
> checks new case rates <
It's not absolute numbers - log-fold rate of change is what matters. If you look at the rest of Europe, whilst we are the "sick man", the trends in rate of change of new cases are tending to increase rather than decrease now. The US is what Italy used to be - showing us the way. Doubling time is a week at the moment (and that's adjusting for increased testing). That's to be compared with a previous unbridled doubling time of two to three days.
Don't believe in exceptionalism. It's a hard lesson.
The only way in which England is exceptional is in releasing the lockdown controls at an earlier stage in the suppression than most of our EU neighbours, and with a worse TTI system in place. But's going to be a struggle for even the best...
Well in that, sadly, the US have done us a favor. And yes, challenging times this winter for sure. You can see the normal uptick in mortality. It will be very interesting to see whether we remain in course. I think we will and that life expectancy has fallen very very slightly.
We’re doing the same as the other European countries.
Yes we are now. But we didn't at the beginning, when we didn't lockdown. So they are in a better place to open up than we are.
Surley seasonal Flu will be at its lowest levels for like, ever.
Read the Guardian What happens when flu meets Covid 19?
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jul/19/what-happens-when-flu-meets-covid-19
I am going back into lockdown from September onwards.
Reading today about anti-vaxxers. If there is a vaccine and it works then anti-vaxxers will just be cleaning out the gene pool. Cant see what the problem is.
Apologies if the thread stalwarts have covered this somewhere, but I'm being too lazy to read over 300 pages.
Can anybody explain why the R number/infections have dropped and are staying so low currently? It feels to me, in London, like lockdown and any social distancing ended months ago now, other than I guess a fair number of people still working from home. Is this one factor really that substantial? Oh and kids off school. It just feels so much closer to 'do as you please' than the 'house arrest' type lockdown at the start I find it hard to understand how a virus that is now widespread isn't spreading very fast any more. With scientists, even vallance and sage, talking like a winter second peak being likely is it less of a problem now because the virus is actually affected by the weather? I thought the evidence showed it wasn't particularly. Is it that indoor transmission rates are so much higher and the summer weather means we aren't mixing inside as much? Is it really that some element of SD behaviour that does remain is really really effective? (I'm not sure if hand washing is even sticking anymore) or am I missing something? I starting to think that possibly the scientists know there is something but don't know what. The dark matter affect.
A scientist writes... 😉
A few points. First R is a measure of transmission, and it is "about" 1. That means that we have an equilibrium of sorts - cases are neither declining nor increasing appreciably. There are two possible reasons for this; lack of mixing and immunity. Depending on your politics, it would seem, people are likely to favor one or the other.
Either lockdown has no effect (the first) or we all have some cross-immunity from past colds or an asymptomatic infection. The truth is probably somewhere between (but closer to the first). The US unlocked far too early and now see rising cases and will see rising deaths soon. We may contain things but numbers of outbreaks are increasing - expect more local lockdowns would be my prediction.
As for immunity, well the jury is out. I believe that there may be some limited cross-immunity for the few from some previous coronavirus infections. Perhaps cellular not antibody. But one needs to take the long view that this virus probably looks like the other four viruses of the same flavor. Seasonal infections, no life-long immunity, antibodies that signal you've had exposure and reinfection about once every couple of years.
Come winter when we are all inside, transmission will go up for this virus, other colds and of course influenza. The law of mass action does not care for politics. By then we will have better testing and tracking, perhaps some protocols for affected schools and workplaces, active monitoring of nursing homes and screening of hospital admissions and discharges. We may also have a vaccine of sorts. If forced, I'd say normality is a year away at least.
[TL:DR] Early days, take the long view that this new virus will be around a long time and we'll get much better at coping with it, but it will be a year before things get back to normal.
A scientist who has modelled and published on the COVID outbreak also writes:
Outdoor transmission is very low anyway, so many of the instructions to not go out and meet were probably overkill (though: the situation was desperate at the time, the science about outdoor transmission was less clear back then, and every little helps). So people going to the beach, parks, etc, doesn't have much effect even though it looks like a very visible change.
Lots of people are still staying mostly at home, not going to school or work, so we are by no means back to normal. Google mobility still has us about 40-50% down on public transport, workplace mobility. That's a lot! Which also means more space for those using it, of course.
Even when people are meeting indoors, it is much more limited than previously. Local pubs round here are quiet compared to pre-lockdown and are limiting capacity.
And, in fact R has definitely gone up, and is very close to 1 now. IT was about 0.6-0.7 immediately after lockdown. That's a large increase in percentage terms - around 50%.
So, my tldr summary is that R has indeed increased, but our behaviour is still socially distanced to a substantial degree (especially indoor where it matters most). If we were to return to a proper "business as usual" I have no doubt the disease will spread again.
I have no doubt the disease will spread again
This in spades.
feels to me, in London, like lockdown and any social distancing ended months ago now
Not sure what part of london you are in but certainly during work days central London is all but dead and the tube is very low in numbers due to lack of tourists, office workers and day trippers. So even if people aren't social distancing 100% the transmission rate is going to be way down from where it was pre lockdown.
the ‘house arrest’ type lockdown at the start
And we certainly never had a proper "house arrest" type lockdown like some countries did - we could go out to exercise, to travel to work if we couldn't work from home, travel 30 miles to check your eyesight.
The fact that a lot of people did treat it more seriously made up for the minority who didn't stick to what were actually quite generous limitations.
Put 5 live on this morning, the English are still moaning about masks, put 5 live back off again.
It's unreal.
On the subject of returning to normal, my barber shop is back open and after the initial rush demand has dropped right off. Normally I fill every slot I put online.
I could speculate as to why but I imagine lots of folks are making a sensible decision and remaining 'alert'! Works for me too, I'd much rather be riding my bike 🙂
Jeremy vine on radio 2 was doing covid too and although the Indy sage ex chief medical advisor was quite sombre and critical of the government, the callers were generally gung-ho get back to normal and stop being frightened ninnies sorts. Reflective of general attitudes or selectively chosen for better radio? I fear the former.
Btw, my comments are based on living in zone 3 South London. Busy roads, busy shops, very few masks bring worn... Declining mask wearing I reckon... Friday will be interesting.
I just worked out at current infection rate (1500-2500 cases/day) England would take about 27 years to achieve herd immunity (guessed 30 million people, 65% for herd immunity). Although I dont respect Boris and co, if they are pursuing herd immunity as a policy they are f***ing that up as well.
As an indicator of mask acceptance in Scotland I offer the fact that my local supermarket no longer has 2 security dudes telling people to go away if they don't have a mask, and now has one skinny speccy shortarse doing the same. A demonstration if ever there was one that it's easy to get people to follow the rules.
It's probably been asked before but.....is there a simple guide to the current rules about visiting, staying over, bubbles that compares Wales, Scotland and England?
As far as I'm aware the rules are quite different.
Sturgeon's clear communication has probably helped the apparent acceptance of mask wearing in Scotland.
Unfortunately, England doesn't have anyone in power with the ability or willingness to communicate in an equally clear manner.
People will, generally, follow the rules if they see leadership and hear unequivocal messages from said leader.
With the requirement to wear a face mask coming in to effect in 48 hours or so in shops, I asked the question of my contact in DfT if this would extend to public transport interchanges and bus stations (I’m in public transport for a city region). Logic would reasonable to assume it would, as in essence they also contain retail units and as such aren’t any different to a shopping mall in many ways.
I’m still waiting for them to tell us the answer.
If it is a yes, I’ve basically got tomorrow to put up signage, brief every employee, agree policies for enforcement and communicate all this to customers. That I’ve not heard tells you most of what you need to know about how this is being run.
I just worked out at current infection rate (1500-2500 cases/day) England would take about 27 years to achieve herd immunity (guessed 30 million people, 65% for herd immunity). Although I dont respect Boris and co, if they are pursuing herd immunity as a policy they are f***ing that up as well.
Is that factoring potential loss of immunity over time? Then there is the collateral damage in terms of death, long term conditions resulting from the Covid and long haulers.
What ever else it is incompetence or conspiracy it's still not moving away from an ideological response.
I've noticed an uptake in mask wearing. It amused me there seemed to be a strong correlation between hoody wearing and mask wearing. Although I dont think the sample size would stand up to any form of academic rigger. Nice to see the tat merchants have already managed to turn hands-sprays and masks into a lifestyle accessory. I think it'll be a safe bet the more follicly challenged weightlifting fans will be sporting Bane style masks before too long.
I'm currently in South West France. Mask wearing is compulsory in shops and nominally in restaurants.
I can confirm that every single place I've been from big city to tiny village, transport terminal to beach, no-one of any age gives the slightest shit about any form of distancing and the mask wearing is utterly pointless.
Despite Edukator's insistence that the French are a model of competence and the UK will surely rot in it's own fetid soup, my experience was that the UK was far more compliant and making a better job of minimising contact.
Don't believe all the press you read, just because you see pictures of mask wearing in Europe. They're removed to talk, to queue, to greet, outside spaces are all crowded, restaurant tables fully occupied. All the (flippin wonderful) aires and picnic spots, people are crowded round and pushing past.
Wearing a mask for a few seconds in a shop is an utter irrelevance but makes good press.
England, you're doing ok. 👍🏻
I think it's very location dependent across Europe.
I think it’s very location dependent across Europe.
Exactly, same as the UK, masks in shops up here is 100%, only exception I saw was one family of fatties, bizarrely.
Maybe their appetite for risk matches their appetite for chips?
😉
Wearing a mask for a few seconds in a shop is an utter irrelevance but makes good press.
Replacing social distancing with mask wearing was always my fear... the masks giving false confidence that we're stopping the spread... mask wearing on top of social distancing is a laudable aim... but for many people... that isn't going to happen... it's one or the other. Sadly.
Oldagedpredator, no! It was a very simple, over simple calculation. 2000/day, 365 days a year for 27 years. I am not an expert on this but can see that herd immunity isn't viable... Not without just letting the virus rip at NHS destroying, life destroying rates, and even then for a couple of years.
I assume the politicians know this and have known this since the start. So surely it's not been on the table as an option.... Much as I dislike Boris I can't believe he'd consider it a viable option. That's all.
It was explicitly advocated by the govt and SAGE members up to about mid-March. We can debate precisely how much and how quickly the attitude changed subsequently, but it wasn't in doubt before then. Fully documented in SAGE minutes, multiple public interviews etc. Claims to the contrary are simply make-believe.
To be clear, the advocacy of the herd immunity plan was based on the accepted wisdom of the time that there simply was no alternative as it was not practical to permanently suppress the virus.
thecaptain
MemberTo be clear, the advocacy of the herd immunity plan was based on the accepted wisdom of the time that there simply was no alternative as it was not practical to permanently suppress the virus.
Ehhhhhh no not even slightly, which is why we were the only country talking about it while others were proceeding with lockdowns.
accepted wisdom
Accepted wisdom in the "we're against group think, honest" self selecting team at number 10, maybe... nowhere else.
Anyway, Calderdale folk... you'll no doubt be aware that we're surrounded by "areas of national concern" as regards new infections... we'll it looks like we're likely to be added to that list any day now... I would advice that you change your behaviour now rather than later if you need to.
I'm struggling to parse Northwind's post so as to make any sense. I was just describing the approach presented in the pre-existing pandemic plan and confirmed repeatedly in the SAGE minutes and meeting papers. It's the approach that Sweden has persevered with, only they made a much better job of it by introducing some controls much earlier, without a full lockdown. Despite that, there are plenty of critics of their approach.
It's still not at all clear to me what the long-term outcome will be, and a lot hangs on whether ad how soon we get an effective vaccine.
BTW case numbers are consistently albeit gradually up over the past fortnight. R>1.
If it is a yes, I’ve basically got tomorrow to put up signage, brief every employee, agree policies for enforcement and communicate all this to customers. That I’ve not heard tells you most of what you need to know about how this is being run.
They can answer you now... assuming both they and you are working this evening ready for tomorrow... the government have now said that, if I understand their just published and perhaps slightly cryptic rules, that, the answer is yes. Get ready! You've got hours spare...
For transport hubs in England, the requirements mean face coverings must be worn in indoor train stations and terminals, airports, maritime ports, and indoor bus and coach stations or terminals.
thecaptain
MemberI’m struggling to parse Northwind’s post so as to make any sense.
It wasn't complicated. Herd immunity has never been the "accepted wisdom of the time", it was a nearly unique response which the rest of the world rejected. I don't know how anyone can claim that something so controversial and exceptionalist was "accepted wisdom" to be frank.
I see the PM is up here telling us how great the UK response has been. Meanwhile 50 new deaths are recorded down South in the past 24 hours, while Scotland (10% of UK population) has had no new deaths recorded for a week and only 1 in the past 15 days. It doesn't exactly sound as though the UK response has been all that great.