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Looks like the scientific thought is leaning towards that a potential Coronavirus transmission vector is airborne after all.
That could put the cat amongst the pigeons.
Good for my particular discipline though (mech/hvac design engineer), every cloud and everything...
To be fair the guidance (REVHA mainly) I’ve read has pretty much pointed towards this from the start (hence my previous ascertain it was airborne, not trying to be smart, I rolled back when I’d read the wider guidance).
Masks indoors and social distancing anyone?
Looks like the scientific thought is leaning towards that a potential Coronavirus transmission vector is airborne after all.
Source please?
Good for my particular discipline though (mech/hvac design engineer), every cloud and everything…
What's your take on efficacy of HEPA filtration? I have 0.1C CTC labs at work that can only keep the air temp at that tight level by recirculating through HEPA, as a result we are looking at self contained breathing apparatus for all in there. HEPA standards seem to test only down to 0.3um, whereas the virus particles are more like 0.05-0.125 I've been told. However, also some evidence HEPA works very well on this size? As a design engineer have you any firm guidance on that?
Just read This artical about common ailments and how they affect mobility rates.
This paragraph in particular must be reported wrong surely
A Chinese study has found people with heart disease, diabetes and cancer had a 79 per cent chance of being admitted to intensive care or dying from the virus, due to their weakened immune systems
Are they saying 79% of folks with diabetes end up in intensive care? I had read the mortality rate was something like x3 normal risk, which whilst not ideal is far far below what the telegraph are reporting.
Is that true, or just massively irresponsible reporting?
Presumably it means 79% of diabetics who are sufficiently ill to be hospitalised (in this study, which will not be the last word on the issue).
Of course, the way it's worded could be interpreted that 79% of diabetics who develop symptoms are in deep trouble...which is just poor reportage. There will be many thousands of diabetics out there for whom Covid is a mild illness, or at least not one that requires hospitalisation.
What's very clear is that Type 1 and 2 diabetes are significant risk factors for poor outcomes. The degree of risk is not entirely clear yet.
I had read the mortality rate was something like x3 normal risk
That's what I keep reading in the references our diabetes clinic staff sent us. More data means the understanding of the real increased risk will be changing though. That x3 isn't a fact set in stone.
Source please?
World Service & R4 Today news bulletins at 5 and 6am respectively. It’s reported in the Guardian (but no direct link, which is why I didn’t post one).
Re. HEPA, it’s pretty specialist stuff (I usually only came across it in association with healthcare and university facilities) and I’ve been out of that particular game a decade now.
The main info source is the REHVA Covd-19 guidance document (April seems to be latest publication date). It clears states airborne transmission through small particles <5 microns. HEPA filters are only mentioned in context of mobile room cleaners.
I don’t mean to sound arsey but I’m governed by Eng Council guidance that affects what I offer as ‘advice’ and competency (just in case you decide to sue me... 🤪). Unfortunately it’s not as easy as just offering my opinion 🤷🏼♂️
Google the rehva guidance doc, it’s pretty readable for the technically minded.
I'm not delighted that Bolsonaro has it but nor am I sorry. I don't give a shit about him.
We've been getting COVID data and analysis internally for a few weeks, we've now put this out on a public site - gives a view worldwide.
https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/ai/ai-for-health-covid-data
Wow. Need to understand the underlying data better, but that looks very good indeed. Will revisit at the weekend.
https://twitter.com/govuk/status/1281151375905304577?s=21
So how do you read that? Is it deliberately ambiguous?
Is it safe do what you like?
Or should you do what you like, but in a way that makes it safe?
It's either deliberately and irresponsibly ambiguous, or completely stupid. Could be either.
I've missed dying...
So the WHO have said that in the last week or so World cases have almost doubled. And today, we are opening out airports to 70 countries without a need to track or isolate passengers.
Is it me, or does this make anyone nervous? I’m assuming they’ll be some kind of COVID checks at airports and the badly affected Americas and Eastern European countries are still on the banned list, but still...
Is it me, or does this make anyone nervous?
Covid-19 is already in circulation here. The government is giving people money to mix indoors in social settings. TTI is limping along. Not sure opening airports is going to make much difference.
I’ve missed dying…
I've missed government competence.
Is it me, or does this make anyone nervous?
Yes, a little.
Although I think air travel is not the top of our list and more normal social settings are the real issue. Especially coming into winter with more indoors stuff prevaling.
At the moment, air traffic probably isn't a big source of new infections, but if/as our domestic spread reduces it could be. I certainly feel that wider/tighter quarantine rules should have been introduced.
If that means fewer holiday flights, the environment will thank us. If that means more people staying at home and keeping UK business going, the economy will thank us. I'm not seeing a downside. If your priority is a fortnight in the sun abroad supporting foreign business and helping to pollute the atmosphere, fair enough, but don't complain if your two weeks away means two weeks in quarantine when you return. There's a bigger picture and wider social responsibility at stake here.
@beej Looks like that map doe snot render correctly on Mac/Chrome, but it does on Mac/Edge.
Cheeky...
Also:
At the moment, air traffic probably isn’t a big source of new infections,
It might not be a big source of new infections in the UK, but people going off on holiday to places like Spain _could_ be a source of new infections in the holiday destination.
FFS, we are supposed to be working together to beat this and yet all this virus seems to do is highlight how totally self-centered [nearly] every damned nation is.
the economy will thank us
except for the bits involved with aviation and holidays
just saying
except for the bits involved with aviation and holidays
We’re at risk of being barred from travelling by the destination countries, that’s also not good for aviation and holidays. The current “slightly open” approach just means longer till these industries can get back towards volume use.
At the moment, air traffic probably isn’t a big source of new infections,
Because its at a vastly reduced level. As pointed out we have enough issues with our own domestic rules, despite the fact - and gladly - cases and deaths continue to fall slowly. My worry is that people are going to come from all over the place and jump straight on the tube from Gatwick & Heathrow bring god knows what with them, which is pretty much how it started in the first place.
Now, I appreciate we can't remain "closed" forever, but with rising global cases, is now really se the right time? See Aus and NZ who have effectively stopped incoming non-nationals.
Which of the countries on the current approved list give you cause for concern? AFAICS for most of them travellers will be at more risk of catching Covid in the UK than we have of them bringing it in.
My worry is that people are going to come from all over the place and jump straight on the tube from Gatwick & Heathrow bring god knows what with them, which is pretty much how it started in the first place.
Given that we're one of the very worst countries in the world for controlling Covid-19 I'd have thought visitors to the UK would be more worried about catching it from someone on public transport or immigration staff when they arrive.
Aye, that's a bit xenophobic, if anything it's Brits going abroad that are the bigger issue, than what anyone coming here does.
It’s not Xenophobic. Airports are ideal places to contain transmission. Test and quarantine in both directions.
It’s not Xenophobic
It is when you intimate that it's those pesky foreigners coming here are the issue, a bit pub landlordy.
No, the problem is that the virus loves us all moving around and meeting face to face. We have been reducing movement within the UK, and putting measures in place to stop spread, there is no good reason for ignoring the issue of moving into and out of the UK… travel in both directions should be allowed, but both should come with screening and quarantine this summer. No blanket bans, but proper testing and quarantine when moving between countries via airports.
Edit: Most people entering the UK via airports are likely to be British, no?
Its not Xenophic at all. I said:
people are going to come from all over the place
I didn't say
Foreigners are going to come from all over the place
Unless cats are suddenly into mass transport via airports its people carrying the virus I'm worried about - but yes nothwistanding it also goes the other way.
It’s not Xenophobic
It is when you intimate that it’s those pesky foreigners coming here are the issue, a bit pub landlordy.
What is the * point of opening up scotland to every rancid covid infected * south of the border to move freely around scotland whilst dropping the virus around to all and sundry?.
Suggest we stay on topic.
Fair enough, agreed.
Most people (on this thread at least) seem to agree that the handling of the pandemic by the UK government has been, shall we say, sub-optimal. People have been saying for weeks that restrictions have been relaxed too early and too fast. So why does the number of cases continue to fall? If they are handling it so badly wouldn't we expect cases to have stated to rise by now?
So why does the number of cases continue to fall?
My reading of it is that despite all the tabloid headlines, public behaviour is lagging behind the easing of restrictions and many/most people aren't doing *that* much different to what they have been for the last few months.
This issue is considered in the latest (3.7) Independent Sage video on YT. Worth a squizz.
VitD production from direct sun exposure during the UK summer is flattering our government's incompetancy in England, I suspect.
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It’s not Xenophobic
It is when you intimate that it’s those pesky foreigners coming here are the issue, a bit pub landlordy.
What is the * point of opening up scotland to every rancid covid infected * south of the border to move freely around scotland whilst dropping the virus around to all and sundry?.
Suggest we stay on topic.
Ok, but I'd like to clarify that I did not post that last paragraph, so please don't include me by implication.
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So why does the number of cases continue to fall? If they are handling it so badly wouldn’t we expect cases to have stated to rise by now?
Because most people are being more cautious than the relaxations allow.
I take the point, but if it had been handled better much earlier, and restrictions eased more slowly, the fall in infections and deaths would have been much faster.
It currently feels like everyone is pleasantly surprised at the continued drop in numbers and gas forgotten the previous 60,000 excess deaths.
Good to see low numbers on a Friday. Long may the downward trend continue. I personally think it's right that lockdown is easing now (i know it's not the the popular view on here) yes we should have acted more quickly at the beginning but how about occasionally focusing on the fact things are improving now?
It's great that things are improving. But the virus is currently at the levels it was when we had to go into lockdown. If we act now as we were before lockdown, we'd be in big trouble again in weeks. But we're not acting the same as before... most people are waiting for the virus to be under control and track/trace/isolate in place... which sadly looks like the government is planning for the Autumn. Why not now? Why the delay in getting the app in place? Why the long slow (and expensive at £10billion so far) building up of a privately run centralised track and trace function, which they aim to be fully working later this year, rather than funding local public bodies and having them do this from February (five months ago) onwards?
Well its being reported on the news channels the R no has gone up very slightly although the average is between 0.8-1.0.
We're in danger of measuring "success" as not being anywhere near our own insanely high peak of infections and deaths, rather than looking to other countries at just what is possible... stop the deaths and get businesses, schools, universities, healthcare etc opening properly again... ASAP.
Good to see low numbers on a Friday. Long may the downward trend continue. I personally think it’s right that lockdown is easing now (i know it’s not the the popular view on here) yes we should have acted more quickly at the beginning but how about occasionally focusing on the fact things are improving now?
The obvious risk is that things are improving now but it can take a turn for the worse, and there is obvious lag between lifting restrictions and rising cases. And we've only just lifted some of the more dangerous environments. Everyone should be looking at the US and Brazil for examples of what is possible.
I would still compare our choices with Australia/NZ and the cautions they are taking. Not allowing international travel, swift and hard lockdowns, better regional controls. NZ, IIRC, has NO active cases.
Numbers are improving BECAUSE of the restrictions....
So why does the number of cases continue to fall? If they are handling it so badly wouldn’t we expect cases to have stated to rise by now?
Because most people are being more cautious than the relaxations allow.
The effect of this should not be underestimated.
The amount of older people I've seen this week still refusing to leave the house, taking all the precautions and basically still living in fear while doing my Home Delivery job is an eye-opener. I thought that they'd be chomping at the bit to get out the second the restrictions were lifted in Wales on Monday but they are mostly wary of the increased traffic, crowds and risking passing it onto their friends. You've also got the large numbers who are avoiding going to pubs of all age groups so you have the strange situation where we have gone from people seemingly pushing the rules to get a bit of freedom to now holding back just in case it's too early.
We’re in danger of measuring “success” as not being anywhere near our own insanely high peak of infections and deaths, rather than looking to other countries at just what is possible…
It's only the government measuring success against their own track record, most of my friends are measuring us against other countries and have the same view that I have: lockdown is happening a little too fast and a little too early in England, Wales and Scotland seem to be taking a more measured approach.
We seem to be risking things a bit too much in having a second wave like the US so that we can get business running again.
but how about occasionally focusing on the fact things are improving now?
We do. But we cannot be complacent about it. It's as bad now as when we went into lockdown. We need to be planning for a possible second spike being around just as this year's winter flu season is coming. Because if we have to have a second large scale lockdown, I very much doubt the magic money tree could do it all again.
Which of the countries on the current approved list give you cause for concern? AFAICS for most of them travellers will be at more risk of catching Covid in the UK than we have of them bringing it in.
Remember that effectively, the UK is on that list as well. And by removing the Quarantine requirement, you take people from a massive area, squash them into a small place, then send them on their way. By definition, I'd expect tourists to visit more places on average. To my limited understanding, that makes the transmission vectors around airports a significant risk.
People keep saying "it's as bad as when we went into lockdown".
This is simply not true, in fact it's orders of magnitude wrong.
At the time of lockdown, infections were running at something like 250,000 new cases per day, definitely over 100,000. That sort of number. And doubling every 3 days.
Currently, there are probably a couple of thousand new cases per day, 5,000 at most. And it's going down slowly.
Don't confuse the reported number with the reality.
At the time of lockdown, infections were running at something like 250,000 new cases per day, definitely over 100,000. That sort of number.
Er. Do you mean in the UK? The figures I can see say that we had 600-odd new cases on 23rd March, which is about the same as now. Figures worldwide are 13000 in March, over 200,000 new cases at the moment. Where are you getting your stats from?
Yes, the UK. I'm talking about the true level of infection rather than the completely inadequate test numbers.
Back in March, there simply wasn't the capacity to test the vast majority of suspected cases (let alone asymptomatic), so only a handful of the most severe ones got counted. The true number of infections was as I've written.
Don’t confuse the reported number with the reality.
Bloody been saying this for months. Don't consider it, get it done!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53365062
There is evidence that behavioural changes before lockdown were already slowing the epidemic. Currently there is no evidence that cases and deaths are continuing to decline. Welcome to endemic COVID19. An R of 1 with low levels of new cases is a lot better than with 30x more cases.
We are starting to see evidence of waning antibody levels in some areas as one would expect for other coronavirus.
This weeks analysis of excess deaths was finally unremarkable and within historic norms. It is possible that deaths may be lower in the second half of 2020 as we approach winter. Excess deaths are still predicted at 70k.
TiRed, both cases and deaths are continuing to decline gradually. It's a surprise to me that it hasn't turned up yet, but it still seems clear enough in the data. Just look at the 7 day smooth on worldometer.
18 new cases in Scotland today. Higher than it's been for 3 weeks?
If we are worried about importing the virus from countries with a higher infection rate than ours, then can we please close the border between Gretna and Berwick?
Currently there is no evidence that cases and deaths are continuing to decline
Eh?
18 new cases in Scotland today. Higher than it’s been for 3 weeks?
Its one day, let's wait and see some trends before panicking.
At the time of lockdown, infections were running at something like 250,000 new cases per day, definitely over 100,000. That sort of number. And doubling every 3 days.
That turned out to be bollocks though, didn't it.
Look on a log scale. Half life is several weeks now and getting longer, so we’ll soon be at sporadic endemicity, where Outbreaks are sustained by importation. That’ll see us through till the schools go back.
Nope, R is still around 0.8 and has been wobbling around that value for a while. I'm not promising it will stay there - far from it, I still keep thinking that it must be about to turn - but it just doesn't. This is higher than the immediate post-lockdown value but it went up a while ago and stuck. Sure there's the odd worse day, but then a better day. Week on week, infections are down about 30%ish.
Of course anyone who keeps on calling the floor is going to be right at some point. I absolutely agree that this isn't going away before the autumn.
scotroutes, no you're the bollocks merchant here. How do you think we got over 50k deaths at a 1% fatality rate? That's 5 million infections, give or take a couple of million. More likely more than fewer (IFR probably wasn't quite as high as 1%). When and where do you think they happened?
Continuing the good news theme; the IFR seems to be dropping too. Whether that’s due to the virus mutating, us getting better at treating it or some other reason is unknown. But how low does it have to go before we just stop worrying about it i.e. before it is no worse than other circulating viruses?
It seems likely that numbers will be increasing again by the autumn, but I wonder whether there will be the same level of panic next time.
Numbers are low enough and sporadic by location, that at is not really a reliable estimator now. Growth/decline rate is what matters. In fact it has been all that really matters.
IFR may change for many reasons; hospital capacity - older patients might make it to ITU now, treatment improves (dexamethasone standard of care), better protection of nursing home residents making cases younger, and possibly viral attenuation (less convinced of that one).
Ok, but I’d like to clarify that I did not post that last paragraph, so please don’t include me by implication.
i don't think anyone would have drawn that conclusion, but i apologise if you think that was a possibility.
I agree that it is hard to say right now why IFR is dropping, but my question was more about how low it has to get before people stop caring.
The government will be keen to stop us worrying about Covid, the press must be getting bored by now and people are generally not great at balancing different risks and tend to worry about the stuff they are told to worry about. So, could we get to a point where numbers increase again but nobody really cares?
Well, I like to think I'm almost well balanced if not erring on the paranoid side with most things, yet I went out for my first 6 person max club ride today, and was definitely on edge, more so when we stopped at the end for coffee, and everyone sat relatively close together. People are careful not to allow sweaty helmets and gloves to touch others, not pats on the back and (we were outside) people walking the pavement/we did pause to allow distance for people passing.
In other words, people in general seem to still be being very cautious. I get the impression that if numbers start to noticeably increase a lot of people will get increasingly nervous.
Reports up here suggest that compliance with compulsory face covering while shopping is almost 100% I think the message has got through and there's a certain amount of peer-pressure/willingness to conform helping.
Kryton, I have read that sweaty helmets are a major risk to transmission. Maybe a flexible plastic cover would help?
😀
I never want to hear about “digital solutions” from this government ever again… useless lying incompetent shites that they are…
https://twitter.com/ormondroyd/status/1279337136085446657?s=21
Ormondroyd used to post on here didn't he?
scotroutes
SubscriberReports up here suggest that compliance with compulsory face covering while shopping is almost 100%
It felt to me (unscientific) that as soon as they said it was going to be mandatory, mask use went up to something pretty close to 100%, at least in supermarkets.
Depressing the number of comments that say "there aren't enough police to enforce it". This is not the sort of law that should need constant enforcement, it's the sort of law that the huge majority should just follow because it's easy and right, like not going out robbing.
Ormondroyd used to post on here didn’t he?
Yup. He’s sound. Not seen him for years though.
If we'd managed to build an app like the NZ one above to register attendance at pubs etc you can guarantee that folk on here would have been set against it because of big brother knowing where and when they go for a pint, and who with. Kobyashi Maru scenario for the government I reckon.
Agreed, because we have a government we cant and shouldn't trust. With a shameful record of self interest, distraction and incompetence on the public health side of the pandemic. NZ government has been exemplary, ergo there is a high level of trust.
You can anonymously use digital sign ins, and be notified when you have been in contact with someone spreading the virus… you can’t anonymise a slip of paper with your details on for anyone to read and share…
Good face mask usage here in Glasgow even before it became mandatory. And very few new cases in Scotland now.
Incredibly stupid but also deeply sad
https://news4sanantonio.com/news/local/i-thought-this-was-a-hoax-patient-in-their-30s-dies-after-attending-covid-party
I never want to hear about “digital solutions” from this government ever again… useless lying incompetent shites that they are…
Funny, the pub I’ve been to for the last two evenings has laminated cards on all of the tables with a QR code that you can scan, which opens a site where you put in your location, name and a phone number, which seems like a ‘digital solution to me; perhaps my interpretation of ‘digital solution’ is different to yours - perhaps you think anything that needs to be hand-written is a ‘digital solution’...
Oh, and Eiré has issued a C19 tracing app, that also works in the rest of the UK, and uses the Apple/Google SDK, I’ve downloaded it onto my phone, it accepts a phone number based in England just as easily as one in Eiré/ N Ireland.
Agreed, because we have a government we cant and shouldn’t trust. With a shameful record of self interest, distraction and incompetence on the public health side of the pandemic.
Plenty of others around, not just the U.K...
If we’d managed to build an app like the NZ one above to register attendance at pubs etc you can guarantee that folk on here would have been set against it because of big brother knowing where and when they go for a pint, and who with. Kobyashi Maru scenario for the government I reckon.
I doubt many on here give much of a rat’s ass about anyone knowing they’ve been for a pint, I know I don’t.
Plus nobody would know where I’ve been by looking at my phone’s location, ‘cos I use a VPN and I don’t use Google or Fb, LinkedIn, WhatsApp, Instagram...
On thursday I saw very few masks in use in Leith and was thinking that it looked bad for compliance on friday onward. In fact compliance seems to be almost complete ( apart from the chippy where no one had one - staff or punters)
I have also seen almost no whinging online from scotland about wearing masks - but loads from other places.
I put this down to two things - trust in our government and the self congratulating streak that runs thru modern scotland - "we are better than that / them" I really think that there is this effect of trying to be seen as doing the right thing to differentiate ourselves. I don't really care what the motivation is tho as it all helps make this country a nicer place
Plus nobody would know where I’ve been by looking at my phone’s location, ‘cos I use a VPN and I don’t use Google or Fb, LinkedIn, WhatsApp, Instagram…
Sorry to burst your bubble but cell pings with an accuracy of +/- 12m accuracy on average are easily available on the data market. Although it’s illegal - I wonder if this privacy would be legitimately broken for a COVID outbreak - to tie them back to a personally named record, it’s easy to plot where they reside On a regular basis for 6-7 hours a night.
Having said that I’m talking about some pretty clever career data scientists, I’m not sure any of those work for the conservatives given recent history.
I never want to hear about “digital solutions” from this government ever again…
laminated cards on all of the tables with a QR code that you can scan, which opens a site where you put in your location, name and a phone number
interpretation of ‘digital solution’ is different to yours
Is that government provided? Is it open to very obvious abuse and phishing? How do you know to trust what’s at the end of that link? How is the data collected anonymised? How long is it retained? Why are people expected to be filling in multiple forms when solutions already exist for this? Sounds like the very worst solution I can think of.
I doubt many on here give much of a rat’s ass about anyone knowing they’ve been for a pint, I know I don’t.
I can see why a group of women might not want to give pub staff they don’t know their addresses on bits of paper to keep behind the bar though.
Oh, and Eiré has issued a C19 tracing app, that also works in the rest of the UK, and uses the Apple/Google SDK, I’ve downloaded it onto my phone, it accepts a phone number based in England just as easily as one in Eiré/ N Ireland.
Are you planning on getting 80% of UK smart phone users to download that app? Or are you just going to accept that what you’re doing is pointless, as none of the people you come into contact with in England will be using it?
Actually, if you do start some campaign to adopt the Irish app, count me in… sounds more likely to succeed this summer than waiting for our government to deliver.