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shaundryden
SubscriberDare no one mention the BLM protest effect?
The timing would seem to fit 🙄
The increase in cases is too much to be caused by these events. They weren't, ultimately, all that high risk. But they were pretty much coincidental with relaxing of lockdowns (both official and unofficial)- at least partly because they probably wouldn't have happened at all in the early stages of lockdown.
So, basically no.
Ask the members of Joint Biosecurity Centre (JBC)… they are supposed to be setting it, according to Johnson. Who are they…?
So it’s currently being set/not being set to apparently self-conflicting intermediate levels, by members of a Biosecurity unit that will be operational in the future?
As confusing as a Putin statement to the nation.
Anyway, ignoring the BLM squirrel, meat packing plants in multiple countries now cited as the source of multiple flare ups. The footage of infected migrant worker homes being fenced off and guarded in Germany is very unsettling.
Does this mean the Science community is starting to distance itself from what Boris is doing?
Comments have been pretty clear on that. Ministers decide. Advisors advise. Professors brief the media.
As for a second wave? I'm not convinced of a "wave". Personally I think we are heading to a time when there will be five circulating betacoronaviruses (there are currently four plus one errr pandemic). With winter coming, the virus becomes more stable in the cold and seasonal transmission as people spend more time indoors. We will at least protect those in nursing homes a lot better this winter.
I've analysed this week's excess mortality - London back to baseline, midlands a little higher than 10-year reference range. But excess deaths have halved week-on-week, faster than COVID deaths, which is pleasing.
I don't expect a vaccine (ever actually - and certainly not long-lasting immunity), but I do expect treatments, and there are quite a few antibodies ready to undergo testing.
Not hearing a lot about the JBC, but it is to replace SAGE and provide endemic data-driven support. Probably indefinitely if this eventually becomes endemic.
As to the bozometer - well we're about four-two-threeish. Maybe. We aren't at Five and I don't expect to go to One. Not a single quantitative measure for any condition or decision making. Read into that what you will.
Had a long day... 🙁
TiRed thanks, yr response (and data) was appreciated
TiRed re this:
With winter coming, the virus becomes more stable in the cold and seasonal transmission as people spend more time indoors.
Would it be appropriate to surmise that the UKs recent spells of unusually hot weather have contributed to a more rapid decline in the Virus than perhaps our lockdown process might otherwise have provided?
well we’re about four-two-threeish.
That's a number that can only have come directly from Priti Patel!
My PhD in Theoretical Physics and 25 years experience highly resents that fact! It's a highly technical concept I 'll have you know!
And Kryton, I believe the lockdown has shown a more rapid decline, which may have been helped a little by the weather. Strength of lockdown appears well-correlated with speed of decline. See Sweden for the counter-factual - it's probably where everyone is going eventually (with better protection of nursing homes).
The increase AND decline in London have been markedly faster than elsewhere. I think that some of this is public transport-related. I'd stay off the trains/tube for a while, personally.
It Would appear to be kicking off everywhere again
Surely it's a given that relaxing lockdown will create a second hump? Isn't it simply a case of keeping it to low levels (whatever that might mean)?
The crowds gathered were generally outside with most participants wearing some type of face coverings. If they'd had gathered indoors e.g. NEC, then you'd really expect a spike
BBC News headline is potentially 40 million doses of Imperial's revolutionary C19 vaccine ready by middle of next year... If it works.
Thanks Tired nice to hear a voice of reason rather than the panicked doom mongers who post relentlessly negative comments and go into overdrive around each relaxation phase. So where is the spike that was predicted from the last set of relaxations? Numbers have consistently gone down albeit rather slowly. Yes there will be localised break outs in all countries that have not completely closed down borders and isolated themselves. We are going to live with this thing but hopefully we are getting better at treating it and it may be getting less deadly.
TiRed
I don’t expect a vaccine (ever actually – and certainly not long-lasting immunity),
As someone shielding/living with my 90 year old mother that's pretty depressing to read.
My partner doesn't live with me and we've accepted that we can't even hug for for foreseeable. Not helped by the fact that she works in an NHS lab.
Crap.😟
colour - IF being the operative word.
I've never had much belief a vaccine would be developed; hoped - yes.
That determines how I behave; assume all others are knobs and behave accordingly to preserve my health.
^^ Same here Frank...
Not sure why TiRed thinks there won't be a vacine. Everything ive read seemels to indicate that folks involved are quite hopeful.
I struggle to believe the pharma cos are spending so much ramping up production capacity without a fairly good indication it's going to work..
Perhaps I'm just being over optimistic, but I'm pretty hopefully that by this time next year the virus will largely be over with and we'll all be back to whining about brexit...
As someone shielding/living with my 90 year old mother that’s pretty depressing to read.
I do expect passive antibody vaccination next year - and am working on one as my day job. But the absence of lasting immunity to other coronaviruses is disappointing. The failure of SARS-CoV1 vaccines and RSV vaccines, with enhanced pathophysiology after vaccination does not impart confidence either.
The vaccine technologies of Imperial (DNA to make your muscle cells make spike protein) and Oxford (disabled chimp virus that expresses spike protein) have never delivered a single commercial vaccine between them for ANY pathogen. It is possible that ours (GSK) might be useful - it uses a traditional approach - spike antigen plus adjuvent, so maybe. But we have four endemic coronaviruses already, none with lasting immunity. Why not a fifth?
BTW some of those viruses and even the humble rhinovirus can be nasty for those at risk.
The passive antibody vaccine TiRed, what are the likely benefits to my mother,or myself as the only person that could realistically infect her?
Thanks matey.
We will at least protect those in nursing homes a lot better this winter.
Yes let's hope so.
The passive antibody vaccine TiRed, what are the likely benefits to my mother, or myself as the only person that could realistically infect her?
Upside is all the protection of a vaccine for probably one or two jabs per year. It gives you the same or even better protective antibodies rather than asking your body to make them. The antibody I'm working on is extremely potent, came from a patient of SARS-CoV1 and is likely to be superior to the vast majority of antibodies you or I make. These will be used to treat severe infections, and provide protection to the at risk/vulnerable like you and your mother.
People fail to realize that just making antibodies isn't enough. They have to neutralize the virus and they have to be sufficiently potent and abundant. Most antibodies you make won't be. Indeed I didn't even make enough for serum donation myself!
Oxford and Imperial have some good PR teams for their vaccine efforts. Pharma companies deliver billions of doses of highly tested and highly regulated vaccines per year using precedented technologies, platforms and distribution networks. I'll leave you to draw your own conclusions. The AVERAGE time between identification of a new pathogen and availability of a marketted approved vaccine is... thirty years. There are no approved vaccines for any coronavirus.
Antibodies will be available next year.
do yer tie up you scruffy 6th former
We were warned in the 1970's. Why did no one listen?
Antibodies will be available next year.
So these antibodies..Are they in affect a temporary vaccine? Ie you'd need to get a few doses every year to stay protected?
And another daft question.. Do these need to be 'harvested', or can they be grown in the lab and as such have unlimited doses available.
So these antibodies. Are they in affect a temporary vaccine? Ie you’d need to get a few doses every year to stay protected?
You'll need continuous protection - possibly one or two small jabs per year would not be unreasonable. I suspect that any vaccine will also require annual jabs - a bit like influenza vaccination, but not quite for the same reason (flu changes its coat each season).
they are made in bioreactors using mammalian cells and DNA transfected, just like other therapeutic antibodies. About 100k doses per batch.
BCC didn't get blojo's memo "lock down is over".
At the risk of sounding a bit right wing/mental.....it really ****ing pisses me off that huge numbers of those pricks at the beach will be getting paid through the furlough scheme....if they're going to blatantly disregard social distancing and health advice, then get the ****ers back to work and off the taxpayer payroll ffs.
Meanwhile, more Darwinism in progress
Prick on the beach on the BBC site getting interviewed. Basically admitting it going to cause a second wave but it doesn't really matter as he doesn't know anyone who's had it.
Selfish xxxx, part of me hopes he gets a dose and he spends a good few months feeling sorry for himself in recovery.
At the risk of sounding a bit right wing/mental…..it really * pisses me off that huge numbers of those pricks at the beach will be getting paid through the furlough scheme….if they’re going to blatantly disregard social distancing and health advice, then get the * back to work and off the taxpayer payroll ffs.
Yep, that does sound a bit odd - they're on furlough because there isn't work for them to do. Gov't health advice is that outdoors, people can go where they want. And in 30 degree heat, they're going to the beach! I've been to the beach a month back, social distancing was totally possible. Chose to avoid Bournemouth/Sandbanks as it's ALWAYS rammed and less for families, more for boozers. Don't think there's anything different now about how the beach gets left than in normal times, sadly. Where I go, people tend to respect the environment more and take their crap home.
Water just off that beach is probably 10% piss by now. Happy holidays.
Basically admitting it going to cause a second wave but it doesn’t really matter as he doesn’t know anyone who’s had it.
To be fair, when we started coming out of lockdown a month back people said the same thing, also when it was hot and beaches were rammed. Correct me if I'm wrong but I haven't seen lots of evidence of mass transmission from this type of environment. Secondary outbreaks I have seen reported are from meat processing, child processing and drink processing.
those pricks at the beach will be getting paid through the furlough scheme….if they’re going to blatantly disregard social distancing and health advice, then get the **** back to work and off the taxpayer payroll ffs.
Although I understand why you're frustrated, those Furloughed workers don't have jobs to go to and have families to support. A very large percentage of them won't go back to a job. Focus on the real issue not your jealousy about how people are being paid.
Police are moving in to clear the beach apparently but are "overwhelmed".
Not jealous at all mate....my gf is furloughed....I'm self employed so have picked up some nice 'free money'. I just find it frigging mental that this is being allowed to happen....my frustrations are more at the government than the morons on the beach. Although they can rather aptly get in the sea.
I can't help but agreed with you there Tom B, it beggars belief!
...and also buried in the new - COVID19 cases on the rise in UK and Europe.
…and also buried in the new – COVID19 cases on the rise in
UKEngland and Europe
FTFY.
Will the beach stuff cause a second wave though?
If theyre not sharing immediate & especially enclosed space; toilets, bars, undistanced public transport
how will the virus be passed?
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/latest-evidence/transmission
Working from home or furloughed looks more fun than a shift at my NHS lab today at 30°c wearing a mask for the whole shift....
I still wouldn't swap with those Muppets on the beach though.
Now off to a "preparations for the second wave" meeting ☹️
child processing
What did I miss? 🤔
I mightn’t be able to survive the rage felt if get to see the inevitable fake surprise required of Bozo as he takes the stage (over this nudged situation at beaches and soon bars)
As he goes live and pretends to ‘reprimand’ his supportive hordes tut tut, caw, caw. Smirk, smirk. ****s sake 😡
Time to take a break from all media methinks. Just discovered on fb that my best friend’s mum died. Funeral is at her home town (topically, ironically - also a popular beach) this Saturday 😢
Maybe I'm missing it, but since we no longer have a daily update from the UK Government, has the BBC also stopped reporting the latest infection/death rates? They are still available on BBC Scotland, BBC Wales and BBC NI.
It's in here:
BBC News - Coronavirus: Prof Chris Whitty warns public over gatherings in hot weather
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53185386
I just check here daily:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
It’s in here:
BBC News – Coronavirus: Prof Chris Whitty warns public over gatherings in hot weather
Yeah, it is today. And tomorrow it'll be in some other article.I guess I've just got used to seeing it as a specific item on the BBC Scotland page. The BBC obviously doesn't think that 138 deaths in England the past 24 hours is newsworthy, whereas 2 in Scotland is.
Goand have a look at that link:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk//a >
Then the "Total number of lab-confirmed cases in England by specimen date" using the "Table" option. Look at the rise in cases since June 18.
Holy crap.
kimbers
SubscriberWill the beach stuff cause a second wave though?
No. TBH there's not many things that in isolation can. But it's symptomatic/emblematic of the behaviour that's happening all over the country which could. Well, if we weren't still in hte first wave anyway.
Kryton, don't think you've understood that table.
Kryton, don’t think you’ve understood that table.
Sorry, you are correct what a numpty. I'll go back to sleep...
Trending to an asymptote of perhaps 1-300 cases/day, perhaps 1-3000 cases per week, and hence about 10 deaths/week. That’s endemic. At such small numbers and spatial spread, it’s impossible to really predict when and if it will die out. Or whether there’ll be a brief flare up.
Lockdown was a once only action. It’s helped of course, but I don’t think eradication is going to happen. Play the long game. I still believe social interactions have changed and it will be perhaps 18mo to be back to normal. Whatever normal looks like.
Trending to an asymptote of perhaps 1-300 cases/day, perhaps 1-3000 cases per week, and hence about 10 deaths/week.
How long before it's down to 10 deaths per week in the UK?
Well I though about 10/day from July. Once the numbers get to such low levels, prediction is really not possible. But if I had to guess, September. Maybe.
Sweden is the example to which we will eventually have trend to. Other countries may see resurgence and importation of cases. Such as New Zealand.
Or it could die out, we have no cases and a challenge to develop treatments and vaccines for a pathogen that’s gone. That would be nice.
Thanks for taking the time to give a detailed reply to my question. I feel a bit better informed now and I'll dare to hold some hope for next year.
Thanks again.
As ever...
^ 😂
One of my friends from the South Coast is going mental at the newspaper headlines:
No prizes for guessing where they took their family yesterday. They're on their last chance before I unfriend them, especially as a lot of their friends round them are defending each other for going to the beach.
So much for that famous British Common Sense.
As ever, the problem with common sense is that it isn't very common.
It seems that an surprising number of people are presenting at hospitals having had a symptom-less infection but with dangerously low oxygen saturation (levels that would normally make you unconscious) and concomitant damage to the lungs. Worth considering getting a sats monitoring machine (50 quidish).
There is potential for bed-blocking issues as some care home are refusing to take back geriatric patients, 25,000 of whom were passed on to the hospitals.
So much for that famous British Common Sense.
Uncommon sense,common sense is overrated IMHO.
Numpties flock to beaches in Pandemics, so you need stuff in place to mitigate that and make it less of a problem.
Still it'll make a good news story to hide the other delights.
the problem with common sense is that. . .
. . it's learned behaviour from experience, no one is born with it. Yesterdays beach goers had the exams on the sand, the learning comes in around 3 weeks. Deferred experiences are always the best.
The scenes on the beach and the other irresponsible behaviour was all predictable. Johnson knew what would happen when the relaxation was announced, but his policy is just to take a gamble that the worst is over. If he gets away with it, the public will be happy to have their freedom. If things go wrong, he'll simply say "I told people to behave themselves". It's a complete absence of leadership.
Or its more "behavioural science" from Bummings.
Lots of people are clearly going bonkers, tease them that the relaxation is coming "soon" and turn a blind eye when a few go ahead with it before time.
kimbers
Will the beach stuff cause a second wave though?
Well some will go to the beach and not catch anything... they will be validated and not bother anywhere else.
Some will go to the beach and catch CV and then spread it .. some will be asymptomatic or have a mild "flu" and they too will be validated... they will probably use that validation as a excuse to then pressure and infect more people .. look gran we all went to the beach yesterday and we're all fine...
Some will go to the beach, catch CV then spread the virus as above and die or gran dies but most won't associate this with going to the beach
Dunno quite what to make of this.
Covid-19: MPs reject calls to routinely test health and care workers
Its Trump's model, if we don't test we don't have any cases.
The vote on routine weekly NHS testing got even more intresting after the vote was rejected, an amendment to the Labour vote by the Tory front bench was then passed without "division," where they self-congratulated themselves on the ~65,000 UK excess deaths since the pandemic began!
https://twitter.com/HouseofCommons/status/1275807565813776385
Or its more “behavioural science” from Bummings.
As is opening the pubs for the first time on a Saturday, instead of a Monday.
Just thought I would add some info to this thread that I found interesting.
My wife has been in hospital all week (the third time in since lockdown started). Tested for covid each time and negative.
Today a Dr told her that they think her illness could be a result of a covid infection even though her tests each time were negative. He said "what we are starting to find out is that covid is effecting people in numerous different ways. You could be tested a hundred times and the result be negative but you may still have or have had covid."
He also told her that in normal times 13% of hospital cases remain a mystery. People are admitted, they get better and go home but a cause is never found. At present that figure is much higher than 13% and is being attributed to covid.
He also told her that in normal times 13% of hospital cases remain a mystery. People are admitted, they get better and go home but a cause is never found. At present that figure is much higher than 13% and is being attributed to covid.
Taking Covid out of that para and this was me in 1997/8/9. For three years I had the worst Gastro-flu ever in June of each year that lasted about 3 weeks. It was so bad I had a special tablet I had to keep under my top lip which removed my gag reflex so that I could keep water down, and obviously I was just a quivering mess. In 1997 just before the first episode I'd returned from a Malaysia work trip, therefore each yeah I was given a whole series of tests including Malaria which all came back negative.
It stopped and never re-occured again to date, and also to date no one has ever been able to tell me what it was.
I can't believe this idiot. Its no good posturing from no 10 using a strategy we all saw through six months ago. Standing on a podium waving his chubby finger telling the British public not to be naughty and we'll bring another lockdown on ourselves?
Step up you ****ing idiot. DO something! Be a leader and shut the ****ing beaches and deny the idiots the ability to make their selfish me me me based decisions. For god sake man, no one listening to you you utter tool, because there's never any recrimination for six pints of cider and a shit in a McDonald's carton before a tussle surrounded by 300 other people on a public beach/street.
Huff. And yes, I've had a beer, I could decide between this or the Boris thread.
Cock.
Is it me or is the 7 dat average deaths not going down anymore?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
3 day average looks even more troubling.
Come Tired reassure me its all gone by mid july...
Is it me or is the 7 dat average deaths not going down anymore?
Not in England
A little reassurance - when deaths get very low, then small bumps make a difference. We're at the point where weekly reporting is now preferable. Perhaps with a weekly briefing. In week 24 (w/e Jun 21) there were about 300 excess deaths in England and Wales. London has been at baseline now for three weeks.
I can't PROMISE it will be gone by mid July - in fact I'm not convinced it will "be gone" at all. But do not look too hard at daily death reporting data. And of course, one needs to be looking on a logscale for what is a protracted half-life of decline.
I'm analysing for pockets of transmission twice/week. I might update the global analysis later too.
Give us a reason why we won’t be looking at the current level of deaths, or higher… for the rest of the year, considering the, er, “advice” we’re being given now. We’d love to hear one…
I've been surprised we haven't had an increase already, so perhaps I'm a bit pessimistic. But given that outbreaks are starting to be seen in other countries that achieved significantly better control, I don't see how it can last here, especially as the furloughing is wound down. There is simply no mechanism to keep R at or below 1. The TTI is obviously pretty much worthless, it could be worth a 10% reduction if we are lucky, but I can't see that being enough to compensate for pubs opening and then schools going back etc.
Give us a reason why we won’t be looking at the current level of deaths, or higher… for the rest of the year, considering the, er, “advice” we’re being given now. We’d love to hear one…
Given that everyone has said that this won't be done until there's a vaccine or a cure, I've been under no illusion that there will be deaths for the rest of the year, given the governments appalling handling of the crisis.
And it's their handling of the crisis that is seeing the beaches and parks packed, and street parties kicking off. Lets not let them gaslight us on that. Short of martial law I'm not sure how a second lockdown could be enforced.
Be a leader and shut the **** beaches
The irony is that led by Boris we have surrendered to the corona virus on the beaches
There was a time when there were four endemic coronaviruses. We are not in that time.
UK is trending down, but probably to Spain/France/Italy levels. The US is in a different place. Sweden is still Sweden.
I think the US demonstrates what happens if you don't adequately manage relaxation of lockdown. Their second peak (if it can be considered such) is now worse than the first one was back in April.