Edit too slow
smallpox was the last one eradicated and that required a damn good vaccine and massive surveillance
Which is probably the way this will have to go
Mrs Inkster is in Kenya at the moment, has been for a while, looking after her very old and not very well father.
It's been incredible to see how the government there and in some other African states has acted quickly and decisively in confronting the pandemic.
They instituted a lockdown when cases (not deaths) were in single figures.
Then they made everyone flying into the country go into forced 14 day quarantine either in a hotel at their own expense or a government centre. I'm watching planes flying in to Manchester Airport as I type this.
A politician flying in from Germany gave the quarantine the slip but they caught up with him and forced him into 14 days isolation, when he came out of isolation a couple of days ago they arrested him. I think they sanctioned a religious leader similarly. (Are you listening Nicola Surgeon?)
They've installed hand washing stations at bus stops. Everyone is wearing face masks.
If you said the words 'herd immunity' to anyone in Kenya they'd think you were talking about cattle, not human beings. If you said it too loudly they might even lock you up.
When I worked in West Africa a few years ago they had Ebola going on and there was a lot of controls at airports and in cities and certain borders were closed etc. They have a cultural memory of what serious infectious diseases can do that we don't anymore, hence we have wacko anti-vaxxers and many people were treating CV-19 as a bit of a laugh. We got complacent.
They instituted a lockdown when cases (not deaths) were in single figures.
That is good to hear.
Maybe they looked at Europe and thought **** that
hence we have wacko anti-vaxxers and many people were treating CV-19 as a bit of a laugh. We got complacent.
I’ve seen an increasing number of people share “it’s a hoax” links on ****book.
They instituted a lockdown when cases (not deaths) were in single figures.
Then they made everyone flying into the country go into forced 14 day quarantine either in a hotel at their own expense or a government centre.
This is essentially what I was saying we should do in late January/early February. However, I understand it would have been extremely difficult for the government to have gone in so strongly that early. I guess we are where we are now, but I don’t see any easy transition out of the current ’lockdown‘ and certainly nothing as optimistic as that tweet from that professor above. As to the implications of different countries being in such vastly different positions, I cannot picture how the next couple of years will pan out Worldwide.
Karol Sikora raises some good point, an exit strategy needs to be planned careful & should be well thought through, in a way that the initial handling of the crisis wasnt.
Theres a balance between being optimistic & offering false hope though
I'll say it again - Karol Sikora is a medical oncologist, he irradiates tumours as his day job. His company charges the NHS for the privilege. He has had dodgy business with the Republican Party and Libyan Government under Gadaffi (he wasn't too optimistic in his prognosis for the Lockerbie bomber). He has no more expertise on this subject than your GP.
If you want the voice of optimism, you'd be as well following a local yoga teacher.
Watching the news here I get the impression were already being briefed for the end of confinement. Poeple are getting used to the idea that going out will mean wearing a mask and having some kind of app on our phones. Businesses are preparing for the long haul with drives, deliveries, reorganisation of stores to flow people though - as little contact as possible. Institutions have already been shifted on-line to a large extent and that trend is being accelerated. The confinement time is being used reduce the risk of infection when people go out again and make sure that cases can be more easily traced when the occur.
They're also showing us what the biggest headaches are. For example: a lot of key workers on low salaries live in 93 but work in 75, and don't have a car. Public transport is a contact point it's hard to avoid. In the same department the high population density is an issue: hundreds if not thousands of people in buildings with small lifts and narrow stair cases who can't avoid close proximity. It's an area where the virus is resisting the confinement measures, the numbers are still bad.
Karol Sikora raises some good point, an exit strategy needs to be planned careful & should be well thought through, in a way that the initial handling of the crisis wasnt.
Theres a balance between being optimistic & offering false hope though
While his dates may be optimistic/overly hopeful, there is at least a staggered strategy. Which is better than the two alternatives of
1) We all sit inside for 18 months dying of cancer, starvation and rickets until there is a vaccine
2) Boris announces "business as usual, as you were" on some random date.
Which is better than the two alternatives of
1) We all sit inside for 18 months dying of cancer, starvation and rickets until there is a vaccine
2) Boris announces “business as usual, as you were” on some random date.
Luckily you’ve just made those up.
Gauss 1777,
Agree it would have been extremely difficult to implement a lockdown strategy here in late Jan, early Feb owing to our complacency and general decadence. It would have been the right thing to do though.
What I find the most shocking is the complete lack of understanding on the part of all our politicians and media in relation to the threat. The only politician I have seen sounding the alarm is Rory Stewart, and that wasn't until early March. I watched Sunak give his budget speech and thought it utterly meaningless in the face of what was about to happen, or rather was actually happening but was being ignored.
The only media outlet I saw saw sounding the alarm was...... well none of them actually.
I went to that Black Swan guy, Nicolas Nassim Taleb, (the guy who called out the 2008 financial crisis so accurately in the book he published early 2007). He's a hedge fund manager specialising in risk and had been warning of the dangers of a pandemic over the last few years, the Singapore gov't invited him over a couple of years back to advise them about the dangers of a potential outbreak. (Singapore is handling the crisis as well as anyone.)
His angle was that we don't know what this virus is so the only avenue to take is to be super cautious. He also lays the blame with governments seeking to protect the airline industry (protecting big business) rather than having the guts to stop international traavel. He thinks the UK government is a bunch of morons with the course they have taken.
A lot of Africa has given up on Europe and the West as a model for progress and looks more to Singapore and South Korea as examples to learn from, as those countries were pretty impoverished after WW2 and have excelled since. Rwanda took the lead in this, turning away from Europe after the genocide, doing away with any Franco Belgian influence, ceasing to teach or use French and expelling any French institutions. I can tell you from experience that Kenya doesn't give a toss about the UK either.
Luckily you’ve just made those up.
very true, but those two basic ideas are the two extremes that are floating around on here, in the press, and so on. (all from people equally as unqualified as me)
We are all fans of herd immunity.
I am, but only if the immunity is conferred by vaccination! You don't want this infection. You don't want your parent's to have this infection. You do want them to have immunity to this by vaccination.
I’ve seen an increasing number of people share “it’s a hoax” links on ****book.
Nothing to say other than Social Media.
Waiting for a vaccine is a bit of a gamble, hopefully one will come along, but how long can we economically sustain lockdown for?
Other option would be to hugely ramp up testing at a national level & track, trace & isolate until we've eradicated it .
Korea & others on that track, Germany seem most well placed in Europe .
It would be great to see at a global level, but bolsanaro etc make it impossible.
So to make it work borders will have to shut, if EU can get act together then that could be a great example, but nationalists terrified of losing sovereignty would hinder that greatly, too shortsighted to see past the benefits.
A vaccine may come along soon, but it can't be the only option
Edit: can also hope that treatment protocols improve and maybe trump's hyroxychloroquine will save us🤯, could you imagine how insufferable he'd be if it did!
It’s been incredible to see how the government there and in some other African states has acted quickly and decisively in confronting the pandemic.
They instituted a lockdown when cases (not deaths) were in single figures.
Then they made everyone flying into the country go into forced 14 day quarantine either in a hotel at their own expense or a
I don't think you can compare the African response with say the British one. Nairobi handles less than 8 mil passengers a year. Heathrow alone over 80 mil. Different circumstances require different approaches.
Public transport is a contact point it’s hard to avoid
Our hossie is on top of a big hill (well it isn't that big but if you're a non cyclist it's big)
Anyway a local cycling advocacy groups put out an appeal for unused electric bikes to lend to hospital staff and there was a big take-up
So some problems are not insurmountable, at least when tackled at a social rather than government level.
What I find the most shocking is the complete lack of understanding on the part of all our politicians and media in relation to the threat.
I find it close to unbelievable that considering the number of experts they had, that they didn’t cordon off Downing Street. That they still had journalists there, sitting next to each other, etc, etc. Considering the importance of Johnson, the other ministers and top experts, I’d have expected them to seal themselves off, with practises in place to prevent contamination.
I don’t think you can compare the African response with say the British one.
Even more so if the news reports are right on how it’s policed.
I find it close to unbelievable that considering the number of experts they had, that they didn’t cordon off Downing Street.
With some sort of barrier?
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/uk-coronavirus-lockdown-long-term-plan
This is a good article that covers a lot of the ground discussed in the last however many pages
This is going to be the Brexit thing again isnt it - we've got virus as a nation so we'll just damn well get on with it. Stating the obvious, there is no right bored now lets get back to normal with this.
In other news - I see Boris is sitting up and engaging. This is conjuring up images Sid James carry on style antics. Do the nurses get additional danger Boris payments?
Yes but both of those relied on an effective vaccine.
if can get one then we can control the virus.
As said above herd immunity by vaccination is good, herd immunity by letting people be infected is a great way to kill a lot of people and potentially give a whole lot more life changing chronic conditions.
but a vaccine is a big if, wether you like it or not, it is not a given that one will be made that allows us to deal with this in an effective way.
Plus consider the world population size now compared to the time of smallpox, the doses required will be massive.
6+billion if it is a single shot, double if it requires booster.
those are not simple numbers and the scale up issues are mind boggling and the costs are insanely big, probably way beyond most countries (there is a reason gavi gets given a lot of vaccines at cost price, and those are tiny numbers in comparison to this)
"Subscriber
I’ll say it again – Karol Sikora is a medical oncologist, he irradiates tumours as his day job....He has no more expertise on this subject than your GP."
Firstly, a disclaimer: I used to work with (for?) him. And: I like him. A fair bit.
He's an accomplished but unsung epidemiologist, as was/is that whole cohort of UK onco consultants. Admittedly in solid-body tumours, but the methodology is sound and the working methods used are comparable in terms of gathering data, modelling, crunching the maths and extrapolating. Fighting cancer is a war that will be won primarily by data, and his contributions to this and clinical research in general are legion.
As to criticism of the NHS, etc- he was right, and still is, if you closely read what he *actually* said.
Anyway. I trust him more than I trust Cummings.
Plus can you point to where I said herd immunity was bad? Otherwise as said previously wind your neck in
Sorry homerun,
Heathrow isn't handling 80 million passengers now is It!
If the airports had been shut down earlier there'd have been a big cost bit nothing compared to the cost now.
Act early, spend a billion to save a trillion.
When you mean Europe you are really referring to France who with their assimilationism were in contrast to the Britsh. Plus after WW2 de Gaulle wanted all their territories back in contrast to everyone else who was letting them go. France built very little for or in its colonies, especially West Africa, and maintained a strong influence for many years backing local autocrats and having Total S.A almost acting like a branch of local government. Needless to say, many of these francophile autocrats bled their treasuries dry and these countries are now poorer than they should be. China throw free roads and infrastructure at African states and aligning with China is a chance for local demagogues to 'stick it to the white Europeans'. It's all rather dysfunctional and there is nothing benign about CCP's China.
This is a good article that covers a lot of the ground discussed in the last however many pages
Good summary, thanks for sharing.
I have a couple of questions from it for people with domain knowledge:
there is a faint hope that transmission could fade away altogether during summer,
Why? (I've not head that mentioned anywhere.)
The problem for countries currently under lockdown is that it’s very hard to predict when a second peak will occur, how bad it will be, or if it will happen at all.
Why would there *not* be a second peak? As soon as we go out of lockdown cases ramp up until the next lockdown. Why wouldn't they?
...and one comment:
Germany is reportedly planning to ease the transition from lockdown by issuing so-called “immunity certificates” that would allow people to leave lockdown early if they tested positive for antibodies to the virus.
I hadn't heard this but that would be my plan. It's gonna be a bit longer than they hoped given this morning's news. 🙁
Someone's notion of herd immunity has suddenly changed. Some of us have been following this thread long enough to have noticed.
The notion of "herd immunity" in the context of Corona virus is and always has been the idea that a lot of people just get the virus and suddenly trying to change that to vaccination to get herd immunity is not fooling anyone.
Your position has become untenable, just admit it, outofbreath.
Plus can you point to where I said herd immunity was bad? Otherwise as said previously wind your neck in
Apologies, I thought you were disagreeing with me.
but a vaccine is a big if, wether you like it or not, it is not a given that one will be made that allows us to deal with this in an effective way.
Agree. Most informed comment seems optimistic but far from certain, and anyway, it's a long way off.
Plus consider the world population size now compared to the time of smallpox, the doses required will be massive.
6+billion if it is a single shot, double if it requires booster.
those are not simple numbers and the scale up issues are mind boggling and the costs are insanely big, probably way beyond most countries (there is a reason gavi gets given a lot of vaccines at cost price, and those are tiny numbers in comparison to this)
Yeah, I've been losing sleep over this. There's going to be a horrible period where a vaccine/antibody test exists but where a significant chuck of the world can't get it because they're literally not making it fast enough. The UK won't be at the back of the queue but we won't be a the front of it either... ...and pity the poor people at the back... 🙁
The summer aspect is simply because it is seen in flu, so they are hopinh out will be analogous, it seems to happen as a result of a few aspects partly because people are more spread out and get outside, there may be an aspect of uv causing a faster degradation of virus too.
The second peak simply can't be answered, no one knows is the absolute truth. You would expect to be further infections once the lockdown eases but we may not see it as a defined peak like in pandemic flu. A lot will depend on testing and surveillance I suspect.
With the lockdown antibody testing leading to an easing of cases, you would expect that it is not because a certain level of immunity had been achieved in the population, more that once antibodies have been produced it is less likely that live virus will be being shed, so as a result a lower risk of infections going nuts as fast
The notion of “herd immunity” in the context of Corona virus is and always has been the idea that a lot of people just get the virus
That's what I understood by the term too.
No worries, we are all in this together, honestly the scale of vaccine that will be required is astonishing.
Plus all the validation work of both the initial batches then the scale up and testing including the stability and that is before you get anywhere near commercial production.
Depending on the route of production it may be that some nasty choices have to be made too as other vaccine production could be put on hold to make space.
The notion of “herd immunity” in the context of Corona virus is and always has been the idea that a lot of people just get the virus
That’s what I understood by the term too.
Nope. The term long pre-dates Corona Virus. It is well understood and well used and more typically applies to vaccination:
http://english.oxforddictionaries.com/herd%20immunity
the resistance to the spread of a contagious disease within a population that results if a sufficiently high proportion of individuals are immune to the disease, especially through vaccination.
This is herd immunity
outofbreath
Memberthe plan seems to be to infect everyone
Yes, there’s no vaccine and may never be one so everyone has to be infected to get resistance. There’s no alternative.
It’s just a case of trying to limit new cases to a level where we all get infected without overwhelming the NHS.
Posted 3 weeks ago
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This is vaccination and has nothing to do with the notion of herd immunity due to everyone getting the virus promoted by the fools in government a few weeks back in the context of covid:
outofbreath
Memberthe most dangerous viruses took am awful lot of people before they were controlled. Smallpox was an awful disease, measles which can be controlled is now having a come back. you don’t defeat viruses you only mitigate their affects
Smallpox is the classic text book example of herd immunity working ! Surely you learned about Edward Jenner at school? He invented the vaccine. Everyone gets the vaccine; we get herd immunity. By the 50’s Smallpox is extinct. Smallpox *has* been defeated.
Measles is another classing case of herd immunity. What do you think the first M in MMR stands for? Ok, it still occurs but we have heard immunity to it and very few people die of it. Apparently 4500 deaths have been prevented since 1968 in the UK *because* of herd immunity!
You’re picking two outstanding successes of herd immunity to argue against herd immunity…
Posted 37 minutes ago
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I've reported the post with the second quote for fake news. It does no one a service when someone tries to save face by changing the meaning of an expression to suit their own ends
I’ve reported the post with the second quote for fake news. It does no-one a service when someone tries to save face by changing the meaning of an expression to suit their own ends
You I did and laughed.
Every year for the last 8 years I do a refresher on how vaccines work and what they are for, the biggest thing being herd immunity. The more people who are vaccinated the more it protects others.
When Johnson and co. were talking about herd immunity you know they weren't talking about vaccination, Drac. But whatever.
edit: no more explantion needed, people can read back.
Every year for the last 8 years I do a refresher on how vaccines work and what they are for, the biggest thing being herd immunity. The more people who are vaccinated the more it protects others.
I just saw it on Operation Ouch, but I know Dr. Xand and Dr.Chris *never* lie. 🙂
Spot missing word in this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox_vaccine
That’s right, “herd”
Google smallpox vaccine herd immunity
First two hits, the science museum and the WHO.
Drac, of course you're right that it's difficult comparing an African country to a European one with regards policing, Nairobi has enforced a night time curfew and a lot of the policing is done by a quite scary conscripted army.
Still, I think it's fair to compare how competent or consistent one government is compared to another, whilst considering differences in regimes. It is also fair to compare the relative stupidity of respective populations.
Just spoke to Mrs Inkster in Nairobi via What's App. She's just bought some home made, four layered waxed cotton face masks with filters. Kenyan schools have been churning them out like theres no tomorrow. (Pun intended). You have to wear one before they will let you into any shop.
There's also hand sanitizing points at the entry to every shop. You have to use them before you're allowed in to the shop and before you touch any produce. Just been food shopping in Manchester city centre this afternoon, I reckon less than 2% of people I saw were wearing masks, and you can guess how many shops had hand sanitizer at the door!
Also Kenyan health ministry has just developed a new test based on their experiences with HIV and malaria, they're going to test 35 thousand people every 24 hours.
Producing enough face masks and hand sanitizer and putting maximum resources into testing is not dependent on the degree to which you're a police state, it's merely dependent on how seriously you take the virus and how competent your institutions are in the face of an existential threat.
Vaccination is a strategy.
Herd immunity as a strategy is do nothing.
This was your notion of herd immunity three weeks back outofbreath
outofbreath
MemberWhich in no way contracticts my statement – “Yes, there’s no vaccine and may never be one so everyone has to be infected to get resistance. There’s no alternative.”
Yes it does.
No it doesn’t. There is no country that is going into lock down until a vaccine is discovered. Any strategy other than that is a herd immunity strategy.
You gave China as an example but failed to claim they were remaining in lock down indefinately, because they’re not. They’re going to come out of lockdown with 95pc of their population without resistance. So it will flare up again, and they’ll go into lockdown again. It’s a herd immunity strategy.
Posted 3 weeks ago
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Time for bed, feel free to have the last word till tomorrow.
When Johnson and co. were talking about herd immunity you know they weren’t talking about vaccination, Drac. But whatever.
Yes I do but Out of Breath is explaining what herd immunity is with vaccines.
Time for bed, feel free to have the last word till tomorrow.
And that there sums up your report.
Rydster,
Happy to have a conversation about Africa and Colonialism but best done on another thread I think, as some have pointed out how this thread should remain explicitly about the virus.
My observations about different approaches to the pandemic shown by the West vs East Africa / Singapore etc are solely in relation to strategies (or lack of) for combating the virus.
But totally agree with your observation that herd immunity is to do with vaccination and shouldn't be thought of as a strategy.
Vaccination is a strategy.
Herd immunity as a strategy is do nothing.
It isn’t, but that was not the clear communication of the government earlier. Maybe they were hoping for some magic long-term vaccine.
Anyway. Epidemic is predicted to be over by July. Globally. You heard it here second.
What? When? Why? How? Where?
July?
When do the pubs open?
😉