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Who needs good hygiene control when you have the lord...
https://www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/worshippers-angry-no-holy-water-3925973
I suspect there will be big changes here within 2 weeks…
This virus is now out in the wild in the UK, Infections have gone up 10X from 20 to 200 in one week. If that continues unchecked we’ll be at 2,000 next week, then 20,000 the week after.
In Italy 10% need mechanical ventilation in intensive care to keep them alive.
We only have 7-800 spare ICU beds in the UK.
10% of 20,000 is 2000 requiring ICU in 2 weeks.Anyone spot the problem!
1% death rate once this gets going is wishful thinking.
This x100
If we 'get it over with', there will be an even bigger spike in cases, many more people will die. All of this is an effort to flatten the spike so that more people can receive ICU care. There will still be an excess of seriously ill people over ICU beds.
So it is imperative that we all change our behaviour pretty quickly. Social distancing, handwashing, all of it.
Our case numbers will be confirmed in the tens of thousands within a couple of weeks. That means that there will be thousands of people out there now with the virus, spreading it, but not yet properly ill enough to be tested.
Part of me thinks let’s get veins infected and get the while thing over and done with….
The opposite is the case… infections needs to be spread out (time wise)… so that the NHS can cope… if we all get it at the same time, there won’t be the equipment or staff to look after the more serious cases, and the death rate will be much higher.
Edit: bah, sorry Martin, I thought I was reading the last page, and missed your post making the same point far better.
Our case numbers will be confirmed in the tens of thousands within a couple of weeks.
Bit dramatic. Care to show your working? Still, Covid19 becoming endemic in the population is probably inevitable, I agree.
Hmmm. Maybe the title of this thread should be changed to the scaremongering and panic thread?
People; wash your hands regularly, cover your mouth when you sneeze/cough, don’t lick strangers. A (pessimistic) 1% death rate is still a 99% survival rate. Don’t be a drama queen. There’s going to be some hard work to do in the next few weeks and months. Be part of the solution not part of the problem.
Don’t be such a drama queen.
I’m alright jack.
Your chance of survival (assume a slow spread) is probably well above 99%, probably close to 100%… others are far more at risk of this ending very badly for them.
Don’t overestimate the effectiveness of the general public following hygiene instructions… the ‘work’ will have to involve reducing contract and groups being isolated. And those groups aren’t the old and venerable/vulnerable, they are those most like to spread the virus (quickly).
The cases are most likely already in the 10,000s. Remember only 15,000 tests have been done across a population of 70 million...
Bit dramatic. Care to show your working? Still, Covid19 becoming endemic in the population is probably inevitable, I agree.
Hmmm. Maybe the title of this thread should be changed to the scaremongering and panic thread?
People; wash your hands regularly, cover your mouth when you sneeze/cough, don’t lick strangers. A (pessimistic) 1% death rate is still a 99% survival rate. Don’t be such a drama queen. There’s going to be some hard work to do in the next few weeks and months. Be part of the solution not part of the problem.
The main problem is people have their heads in the sand, thinking this is not much worse than a bad cold.
The 10x growth a week is based on what happens if people maintain their behaviours as of right now. We have grown from 20 to 200 in one week, if that continues, 2000 next weekend, 20000 in 2 weeks.
Looking at the WHO situation reports Hubei went from 258 (approx where we are now) to 11k in 2 weeks but they were putting in much more robust containment that we are.
Once all the ICU beds are full - in a couple of weeks if we don’t do something the death rate could be closer to 10%.
It’s better to start “panicking” a bit now and significantly change out behaviours rather than in a few weeks when the hospitals will be overwhelmed.
Bit dramatic. Care to show your working?
https://twitter.com/jodigraphics15/status/1236425549301665794
We are currently pretty much following the spread curve of Italy and France, about two or so weeks behind. We are currently at day 38, that puts us approaching 10,000 cases confirmed by day 48-50. Obviously Italy has introduced some severe restrictions, we haven't, as of yet.
We have grown from 20 to 200 in one week
This is a simple misunderstanding/misrepresentation of the facts. We have gone from 20 to 200 (ish) CONFIRMED CASES in a week. To extrapolate actual infection numbers from that is fraught with problems. I would suggest the fact that lots more people have been tested is the main factor in why more cases have been discovered.
The cases are most likely already in the 10,000s. Remember only 15,000 tests have been done across a population of 70 million…
Yet only 2 deaths which suggests the mortality rate is extremely low or your guesstimate isn’t as good as the scientific version.
Yet only 2 deaths which suggests the mortality rate is extremely low or your guesstimate isn’t as good as the scientific version.
Deaths vs confirmed cases is tricky because the lag between incubation, diagnosis, and death is reasonably long. So deaths should be looked at vs the confirmed case numbers for a couple of weeks ago, when we only had a handful of confirmed cases. The actual death rate will become clearer when we have a much larger pool of confirmed cases.
Looking at the global numbers of resolved cases, ie died or recovered the death rate is around 5.6%
It will be interesting to see how the USA comes out of this.
Trump is using the head in the sand tactic combined with the "it will go away" stance!!
Cleverly he's put the VP in charge so when it goes wrong he can point at home and say "it's his fault... nothing to do with me!"
That's higher than the WHO 'snapshot' of 3.4%, which, in itself, is unreliable because we don't know how many people actually have had it and not been part of the official figures. We know it's a mild illness in the majority of people. The only thing we can say with a high degree of certainty is that death rate seems to be much higher than in seasonal flu.
To go back to the original point, if we 'just get it over with', then our death rate will be higher than if we try to manage demand for the 6,000 or so ICU beds in the UK, by changing our behaviours radically.
So, how many of you are taking your elderly mums out to a restaurant for Mother's Day?
That’s higher than the WHO ‘snapshot’ of 3.4%, which, in itself, is unreliable because we don’t know how many people actually have had it and not been part of the official figures. We know it’s a mild illness in the majority of people. The only thing we can say with a high degree of certainty is that death rate seems to be much higher than in seasonal flu.
To go back to the original point, if we ‘just get it over with’, then our death rate will be higher than if we try to manage demand for the 6,000 or so ICU beds in the UK, by changing our behaviours radically.
So, how many of you are taking your elderly mums out to a restaurant for Mother’s Day?
The 3.4% is based on the total 106K cases and 3600 deaths. There are still 42K cases that are active and 3.4% assumes none of them will die which will not be the case so that would tend to increase the percentage.
You are correct about the missed/unreported cases bringing the fatality rate down, however the WHO mission to China reported they didn’t find evidence of this.
Ref the 6K ICU beds, they are already mostly full, so only 7-800 free I believe.
Yet only 2 deaths which suggests the mortality rate is extremely low or your guesstimate isn’t as good as the scientific version.
2 deaths at a time when the hospitals are not yet overwhelmed. Have a look at some of the reports coming out of Italy. They're experiencing 10% of all hospital admissions requiring intensive care. NHS England has around 6000 intensive care beds and an average of 90% occupancy, so somewhere around 600 beds available. If we follow Italy's numbers then we only need 6000 infected to break the NHS, at which point I think CFR will skyrocket.
We only have 7-800 spare ICU beds in the UK.
10% of 20,000 is 2000 requiring ICU in 2 weeks.
I’m not sure we ever have 700-800 spare ITU beds.
Having said this, we’ve got a lot of plans to temporarily increase capacity once things get going.
This piece gives a decent sum-up
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/5/21165973/coronavirus-death-rate-explained
South Korea gives an alternative insight to what happens if you have a proper look at community transmission. There just isn't enough data to give an accurate prediction for the UK, above the 'signficantly worse than flu' one.
Panic buying has arrived in Kinross.
Don’t worry, still plenty of loose fruit and veg!
This piece gives a decent sum-up
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/5/21165973/coronavirus-death-rate-explained
South Korea gives an alternative insight to what happens if you have a proper look at community transmission. There just isn’t enough data to give an accurate prediction for the UK, above the ‘signficantly worse than flu’ one.
That is a good summary.
As mentioned in the article South Korea leads the way in testing, having tested well over 100K, so it’s fair to say they probably haven’t missed many cases.
They have 50 deaths from 7313 cases, so a CFR of 0.7%, as they are likely catching these very early and not missing many cases.
....but you can’t really use this until all cases have concluded
I read the typical progression in China for death is week 1, mild illness. Week 2 deterioration requiring oxygen, week 3 death. So some of the 7313 cases have that to look forward to.
Assuming it might take an average of 10 days to die from this from getting a diagnosis then it would be more accurate to look at the deaths today (50) vs. The cases 10 days ago (1261). This gives a CFR of 4%.
I think at the moment we should be focusing more on the CFR once our ICU beds are gone, which will be worse.
As I had a spare minutes, I looked at all the Department of Health and Social Care tweets and graphed the number of tests and the number of positives. As you can see from the graph, the number of positives is not going up in proportion to the number of tests being done. I'm not quite sure what this means, but i'm guessing, nothing good.
[img] 
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Can't disagree with any of that. Simply not enough data on outcomes and actual case numbers, and actual CFR is likely to vary significantly depending on the quality of government response in terms of testing and isolating vulnerable people, and the state of our health system at peak.
the number of positives is not going up in proportion to the number of tests being done. I’m not quite sure what this means, but i’m guessing, nothing good.
It’s probably a lot to do with the fact that (for now) testing is only done on patients with a history indicative of a high likelihood of coronavirus exposure, rather than randomly testing the population. Ie; if you go looking for it, you’ll find it, and get better at finding it. I don’t think any firm conclusions can be drawn form your graph at all.
In the U.K. It’s still 3 infected cases per million people. If you wanted to catch it how would you go about getting it?
I think a sense of perspective is needed. That said a good bit of fear spread in the media will help the great unwashed start taking sensible precautions.
I went to HiYou for some more of favourite Soya source the shelves were as packed as ever.
At the Chinese supermarket I only buy certain items only. Yes, soya source is one of them but I mostly by Thailand food ingredients. I have various types of soya source but I tend to go with favourite soya source that is KIMLAN (Taiwan made (not Vietnam) but the low sodium is available from the Chinatown supermarket only). As for rice wine the one that is sold in Tesco (Taiwan made) is the one I normally buy and Tesco is cheaper too. Oh ya, I have plenty of soya source that will last me a while.
In the far east we have banned Chinese flights coming into Borneo for the time being so many of them have flown to the capital instead, and the locals are already not happy ...
It’s probably a lot to do with the fact that (for now) testing is only done on patients with a history indicative of a high likelihood of coronavirus exposure, rather than randomly testing the population. Ie; if you go looking for it, you’ll find it, and get better at finding it. I don’t think any firm conclusions can be drawn form your graph at all.
Sure, nothing firm, but they've been doing contact tracing testing from the off haven't they?
FFS! I just came back from Tesco and 80% pasta are sold out.
You'll eat chips like the rest of us. 🙂
I think a sense of perspective is needed.
Yup.
We're all going to be fine.
Middle-aged duffers like myself can get it as well it seems.
In an alarming development, Dr Nattino said younger patients were being affected, saying the ages of patients ranged from 46 to 83 with only a small number having important underlying conditions.
He added: “The last days are showing a younger population involved as if the elderly and weaker part of the population crashed early and now younger patients, having exhausted their physiological reserves, come to overcrowded, overwhelmed hospitals with little resources left.”
Looking at the global numbers of resolved cases, ie died or recovered the death rate is around 5.6%
I would be interested to know how you came to that figure given its far higher than pretty much any official estimate. If you are going to go on resolved cases then you also need to factor in unreported cases.
Basically, you can arrive at 5.6% if you take a very pessimistic view of things.
Worst case estimates of fatalities in uk predicted to be 100k apparently. That seems very low to me but provides some balance on folks claiming this is the apocalypse..
If I was a betting man I'd say death rate closer to 3% max when done and dusted. Look at Italy, average age of people dying there is 80 apparently.
I think the bigger question is what to be done to prevent this type of thing in future. Given every outbreak of this type appears to materialise in some far East market, the starting point for future mitigation seems fairly obvious.
I would be interested to know how you came to that figure given its far higher than pretty much any official estimate. If you are going to go on resolved cases then you also need to factor in unreported cases.
Basically, you can arrive at 5.6% if you take a very pessimistic view of things.
Worst case estimates of fatalities in uk predicted to be 100k apparently. That seems very low to me but provides some balance on folks claiming this is the apocalypse..
If I was a betting man I’d say death rate closer to 3% max when done and dusted. Look at Italy, average age of people dying there is 80 apparently.
I think the bigger question is what to be done to prevent this type of thing in future. Given every outbreak of this type appears to materialise in some far East market, the starting point for future mitigation seems fairly obvious.
You can get the updated details of closed cases here....
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The WHO mission to China didn’t find evidence of wide scale undetected asymptomatic transmission, but you are correct there will be some missed cases that will bring it down a bit....but I doubt down to 1%, that would imply there are 5-6 unreported cases for every confirmed case.
The death rate will also be impacted by health care availability. If you get it in the early stages you will have access to ICU if you need it, in the later stages of the outbreak it will likely be not available.
Given every outbreak of this type appears to materialise in some far East market, the starting point for future mitigation seems fairly obvious.
Apart from MERS of course. So you'll need to add the eradication of camels to your fairly obvious solution.
You’ll eat chips like the rest of us. 🙂
No pasta no problem as I just go with bastmati rice but even the shelves are also half empty ... 🤨
Luckily there is no shortage of potatoes and I can eat chips all day long 😀
Yup.
We’re all going to be fine.
Imagine the dooms day ...
Apart from MERS of course
*coughs in to elbow*swine flu*coughs in to elbow*
That hospital they built in a weeks a bit trick as well.(from wikipedia)
The hospital was built with prefabrication units for fast construction and installation works.The units were laid on pillars to keep them off the ground. Each unit is about 10 m2 and fitted with two beds. Each room is depressurized to prevent airborne microorganism from spreading out of the hospital.[It also has specialized ventilation systems and double-sided cabinets that connect each patient room to hallways, which allows the hospital staffs to deliver supplies without the need to enter each patient room.
Regarding the numbers I think I’ve read a WHO comment on not using the Chinese numbers for your own country as the Chinese have been very effective in keeping people alive.
*coughs in to elbow*swine flu*coughs in to elbow*
In Indonesia the locals have been talking about other animal diseases that is still ongoing and many animals (cows and pigs) are dying without being reported.
Big jump today - 67.
The real reason krappenpoopenpaper is flying off the shelves...
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BTW I have a bit if a sniffle/cough etc and all I can think of is brains, brains, yum...
Trouble is I'm on a vegan diet. Can anyone recommend a source of intelligent cauliflower?
tpbiker
I think the bigger question is what to be done to prevent this type of thing in future...
Sounds like a good case for free universal healthcare and not outsourcing/selling off the NHS.
The new Black Death/Spanish Flu isn't fussy about your social status.
In the U.K. It’s still 3 infected cases per million people. If you wanted to catch it how would you go about getting it?
Well, 3.75 per million as of today. As an individual, your chances of catching it at the moment are currently very low. The issue is that it's likely that a few hundred other individuals will catch it today, and more tomorrow. Eventually, if that trend continues, as it has done in Italy, despite draconian restrictions, your individual risk will increase too.
If you're reasonably young, in good health, chances are it will be mild illness with no lasting effects. But we need to stop lots of people like you getting it to protect those of us who are older or have underlying illnesses.
Morrison's loo roll shelves were half empty yesterday. Popped in earlier, stocked right up and piled in the asles !
MIL's nursing home has put restrictions on visiting times, quite rightly. If MIL got it, she'd be a gonner - loads of health issues - advanced heart failure and knackered lungs being very problematic even with a chest infection or cold.
Morrison’s loo roll shelves were half empty yesterday. Popped in earlier, stocked right up and piled in the asles !
It’s almost as if there’s no actual shortage just idiots buying months worth in one go.
There is a deadlier virus. Kills far more people overall, especially cyclists...
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Not going to lie, up until I read that article in the independent from the Italian doc I was kinda ambivalent towards the entire thing. Key concern was my elderly (but otherwise healthy parents) not getting it. But that is a truly sobering read..
What I will say however is if true, then it doesn't really align to every other artical I've read saying the impact on the otherwise healthy isn't that bad.
It been publicised that the death rate in under 50s is less than 0.5%. However, How many of these people are having to go to hospital? I'd assumed the figure of 20% was across all ages with a small fraction of younger healthy folks having to go. The alternative however is that just as many young folks go to hospital, but respond better to treatment. And if that's the case and we run out of beds, we truely are a bit fxxxxx.
I think the problem is too many people will go to A&E with a sniffle worried.
That alone will put massive strain on the NHS, as if they present themselves then the staff have to evaluate them properly.
Well I'm stocking up on supplies in case this whole lock down quarantine makes its way over the alps.
Going to see my dealers tomorrow.
Things have got whole lot worse in Italy. 133 new deaths in single day
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51793619
Been out and about today in shops etc.
The amount of people still just coughing into their hands! Honestly, some people are just either dumb as **** or just don't give a crap about other people/society.
It was a sobering experience and it doesn't fill me with optimism for what will be going on a few weeks from now.
Pleasantly surprised by the normality in London last night. Bedlam on the Piccadilly line, no more people in masks than normal really, one or two with gloves.
Predictions seem to be getting a little worse. I'll be careful, but if it comes, it comes.
FFS, 8 days of manflu19 kept me from turboing at all until Thursday, but cautiously did some Fri and Sat and felt fine... As today progressed, I progressively relapsed, if I feel like this tomorrow morning I will be calling in sick.
No coughing, sneezing or runny nose. But absolutely fatigued, headache that won't shift, slightly tight lungs and nasal airways feel swollen. Basically a head cold of sorts.
Race against time now for me and family to shift this lurgy before staycation.
No coughing, sneezing or runny nose. But absolutely fatigued, headache that won’t shift, slightly tight lungs and nasal airways feel swollen. Basically a head cold of sorts.
Hmmm....
Seriously, I am moving to Turkey... No cases reported there yet, so whatever they are doing, they are doing it right.
Seriously, I am moving to Turkey… No cases reported there yet, so whatever they are doing, they are doing it right.
"only" 40 new cases in China yesterday (and a new low in S Korea) - presumably more people are recovering every day so the numbers are dropping in those locations?
Hopefully medical care lessons are being learnt and shared so that countries that are late to the party may have an easier time.
The FTSE-100 index opened at 6462.55. and then plummeted 8.2% in early trading.
In the eurozone, Frankfurt's DAX opened 8.1% lower to 10,607.80.
The Paris CAC40 dived 4.2 percent to 4,921.91.
Some companies were severely impacted by market volatility this morning caused by a 30% drop in oil prices and the disruption caused by the coronavirus.
UK energy company Tullow Oil tanked 57% to its lowest level since 2004.
I see that Russia and Saudi Arabia have got the big picture here.
Seriously, I am moving to Turkey… No cases reported there yet, so whatever they are doing, they are doing it right.
Like they need yet another refugee crisis!
Or is this a cunning plan to end up in Lesbos? Which may not be quite how the internet had led you to believe....
Mrs Daz, a social worker employed by the local authority, has had an email saying they all might be repurposed to provide community care packages for current hospital patients so they can clear as many beds as possible. It's all ramping up now isn't it. Lock down by the end of next week?
Lock down by the end of next week?
I reckon that's a good call if we had sensible people running the country.
'if' doing all the heavy lifting there.
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1236943313535721477
All work meetings now by skype, and looks like work from home will kick in later in the week. I'm hoping this will be a really good example of how we could embrace both of these in the future.
All work meetings now by skype, and looks like work from home will kick in later in the week. I’m hoping this will be a really good example of how we could embrace both of these in the future.
I'm Scotland's biggest believer in co-location, but that's exactly what should be happening with folk who don't have an operational need to be in an office at the moment.
Gonna be a bugger for all the lunchtime catering businesses though.
I hope there is a lock down in the city so I don't have to get up early to work.
Pop over to mumsnet if you want balanced discussion about coronavirus..
The place has literally gone into meltdown..
I was hoping that meetings could be done by teleconference at our place. The answer came back… Powwow.
I hope there is a lock down in the city so I don’t have to get up early to work.
Which city is that again?
It's all getting a bit
It’s all ramping up now isn’t it. Lock down by the end of next week?
No and no.
Did they have any pasta?
We get through 2kg a week and i'm down to my last bag thanks to bulk buyers taking the lot.
It’s all getting a bit
More like.
Which city is that again?
In a city that have the facility to handle the virus. i.e. we are the only handful of cities that have hospital(s) to deal with the virus ...
As my colleague said if you want to catch the virus you might as well catch it here because we are destined as the centre to deal with it in the North East.
Yes, I still hope there is a lock down and hope the media will generate enough panic to do so ... let's go full melt down ...
Pop over to mumsnet if you want balanced discussion about coronavirus..
The place has literally gone into meltdown..
But it's normally such a bastion of restraint, common sense and reasoned argument.
I was hoping that meetings could be done by teleconference at our place. The answer came back… Powwow.
That's a name I've not heard... in a very long time...
That’s a name I’ve not heard… in a very long time…
Do you remember ever owning a droid?
don’t lick strangers.
That's what is on the restraining order.
On a serious note there's a possibility that the US Presidential nomination process may need to restart as all the candidates on both sides are in the at risk age group.
Aldi and Tesco in Ilkeston fully stocked with pasta and bog roll. Given the areas reputation for being a bastion of the far right, I'm guessing the locals are assuming that those foreign bugs wouldn't dare come here
Powwow.
I used to watch hours and hours of Native American gathering on youtbue i.e. their festival. I hope that is what it means. I may be wrong?
Yes, I still hope there is a lock down and hope the media will generate enough panic to do so … let’s go full melt down …
What a bizarre little man you are.
Someone in our office just tested positive, which does feel a bit close to home, frankly.
Building now closed for deep cleaning and everyone working from home 'til further notice. (I was anyway, but now feel justified in taking a be-as-cautious-as-you-can-be-or-don't-bother-at-all approach).
What a bizarre little man you are.
I think the word is troll