Forum menu
So I guess, I’m asking, when we’re comparing mortality rates between Covid-19 and influenza, are we dividing deaths by comparable figures?
My understanding is yes
When groups are isolated they are studied quite closely with regular tests for covid 19 even if no symptoms, so that minor cases that usually go unreported can be taken into account in the statistics.
My main stupid question of the day – are you allowed to go and ride your bike on your own while ‘self isolating’?
If you are asymptomatic (not sneezing and coughing everywhere) I can't see how going out on a bike on your own risks spreading it. Just avoid kissing any strangers you meet on the hills.
@Deadly:
It wasn't until fairly recently (e.g. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(14)70034-7/fulltext ) that people looked for low/asymptomatic 'flu in a meaningful way, so I think most/all numbers are based on diagnosed cases as the denominator - then again, maybe that's the more meaningful number anyway (of people who present to health services feeling ill with 'flu, how many will die ?)
With this new one it's currently massively prone to error - fewer (i.e less than one) "seasons" to aggregate, no/unreliable tests at the outset, and virtually zero testing of asymptomatic population even when they'd been in contact with known cases and some "proper" numbers could've been crunched
Besides, how on earth would I stay away from my pets if I live alone?
All my cat does is sleep in his same fluffy cushion day in day out. I'll just move the cushion outside under the lean-to.
@HH @sacredpants
Cheers.
Could you provide catering services
Different kind of Chippy ;0)
Made me laugh that did 😁
So I guess, I’m asking, when we’re comparing mortality rates between Covid-19 and influenza, are we dividing deaths by comparable figures?
My understandng is No, for the UK anyway.
I linked to some Department of Health reports up there somewhere ^. They estimate the number of deaths attributable to seasonal flu. They do not even try to estimate the number of cases of flu.
The best they can do is the number of pepople seeking advice from GPs about cold and flu symptons.
They dont give an estimated mortality rate for flu a they have no idea how many people actually have it.
If somebody with a better understanding of medical statistics would read the same report and correct any misunderstanding, I would be obliged.
So I guess, I’m asking, when we’re comparing mortality rates between Covid-19 and influenza, are we dividing deaths by comparable figures?
They dont give an estimated mortality rate for flu a they have no idea how many people actually have it.
If somebody with a better understanding of medical statistics would read the same report and correct any misunderstanding, I would be obliged.
I'm not that expert but, the cheif medical officer on the radio this am said something to the effect of:
*paraphrased from a half remembered interview on R4 this morning*
We have an antibody test for flu so can see if you have had it, over a few years we built up a picture of how many people catch it for every diagnosed case [in China and in the west] so have a very good idea of transmission and mortality.
At present there's no such test for covid so we're having to make best guesses. A test is being worked on and hopefully once it's available those best guesses will be born out and we'll be looking at a mortality rates of <1% but at present modelling on diagnosed cases only gives a much higher figure.
A really crude version of Mortality is pretty simple - deaths/no of cases.
You can break it down into age categories by obviously grouping the data up and doing the same sums.
Flu cases are modelled on tons of factors with a few mentioned above, also taken into account hospital episode data for previous years, population data etc, vaccination rates, you can then forecast how many cases we are expected to see based on which strains are expected this year (also modelled on various strains and what we've seen). The ONS have some really good data for it all publicly available.
Although it was a few hours ago now,
...but Cali calling a state of emergency does seem rather extreme...
I heard that declaring an emergency is the mechanism the USA use to release emergency funds from state and federal coffers. There may not be an actual emergency yet, but they'll need money to put everything in place to prepare for one.
This might be the funniest thing I've ever seen.
https://twitter.com/7NewsSydney/status/1235467169346928645?s=20
Here's the latest flu figures from Public Health England
The latest Public Health England (PHE) report published at 2pm on 30 January 2020, shows that seasonal flu continues to circulate across the UK, although activity is decreasing.
Over the last week, GP consultations with flu-like illness decreased from 10.3 per 100,000 to 9.0 per 100,000 and continue to stay below baseline levels.
Flu hospitalisation and intensive care admission rates also decreased from 1.39 per 100,000 to 1.05 per 100,000 and 0.13 per 100,000 to 0.10 per 100,000 respectively – suggesting flu is having a low impact on hospital admissions as well as intensive care unit and high dependency unit admissions.
The report also shows that in week 4, 2020, statistically significant excess all-cause mortality by week of death had been seen overall in England.
Currently, 71.6% of adults over 65, 43.1% of adults with a long-term health condition, 42.8% of pregnant women, 41.8% of 3-year-olds and 41.1% of 2-year-olds have received the flu vaccine.
At the same time last year, 71.2% of adults over 65, 46.7% of adults with a long-term health condition, 44.8% of pregnant women, 45.0% of 3-year-olds and 43.0% of 2-year-olds were vaccinated.
It doesn't give you the total number of people who catch flu. Unless they do some sort of statistically significant random sample using the test dangeourbrain mentions, I don see how they could work it out.
I might try do some more reading on it if I have time.
Top Tip: Avoid is catching C19, going to an A&E 'in the Midlands' and sitting there for a few hours before telling anyone you feel ill 'with flu like symptoms'.
Why the panic over toilet roll?
Last time I ran out of big roll I washed my arse over the side of the bath.
Things are getting serious.... The Starkbier (strong beer) festival in Munich is likely to be cancelled...!
Not much gets in the way of a Bavarian and their beer.
A few schools now closed in and around Munich, too. Not surprising given the first case in Germany was just down the road.
The media in Germany are writing about Patient Zero as it were is from Munich. Something to be proud of.... 😁
... federal officials changed guidelines for testing after a whistleblower complaint. The complaint claimed some federal health workers had been allowed to interact with quarantined Americans without proper training or protective gear.
In Thursday’s whistleblower complaint, a top official at the Department of Health and Human Services said workers from the agency were not tested after being exposed to quarantined evacuees without full protective gear. Some of those workers flew back home on commercial airlines, the complaint said.
Another issue emerged after the first U.S. case of coronavirus of an unknown origin surfaced in northern California on Wednesday. State and federal officials disagree on how long it took to get approval to test the woman, the Associated Press reported. But one hospital memo claims that hospital officials could not get approval to test the woman for four days because she did not meet strict testing criteria. Those criteria included travel to China or exposure to someone who had traveled to China. The case is suspected to be the first instance of community spread of the virus in the United States.
“This was a clear gap in our preparedness, and the virus went right through the gap,” Ali Khan, M.D., dean of the University of Nebraska College of Public Health, told the AP. So, late Thursday, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention moved to close that “preparedness gap” by broadening its testing guidelines. Adding to the problem, state and local health officials say they do not have enough testing kits, as the first batch of kits the CDC sent out to state and local health departments were flawed, and new ones are still being manufactured.
Ref the mortality....
We have circa 100K cases worldwide with 3400 deaths, so that gives 3.4%.
The WHO mission to China didn’t find any evidence of widespread undetected asymptomatic transmission so I’d expect there isn’t a great deal more than the 100K that has been diagnosed to reduce the calculated death rate.
Out of the 100K only 56K cases are resolved, so the remaining 44K still may potentially die. So just looking at the resolved cases where people either died or recovered the mortality is 6%.
I’m struggling to see why Whitty thinks we’ll get away with 1%, but I hope he is right.
10% need mechanical ventilation in ICU so it will only take 7-8K cases in the U.K. before our free 7-800 ICU beds are taken. Then the death rate will likely be closer to 10%.
I think we probably need to start thinking about more serious containment measures as seen in China before the numbers overwhelm the NHS - I can see this happening within a couple of weeks.
Bah! Toilet roll is yesterday's news!
Baby wipes are where the real action is at now.
I've already invested. It's the new Apple.😉
Ref the mortality….
We have circa 100K cases worldwide with 3400 deaths, so that gives 3.4%.
But that figure for cases is just positive tests. There will be many more mild cases unrecorded so bring the rate down. THe UK Chief Scientific Adviser said on R4 this morning his best guess was 1% or less.
So anyone under 50 with no underlying medical conditions probably has a very low risk.
The government's planning for a worst-case scenario suggests 80% of the UK population will be infected with coronavirus, with a death rate of around 1%.
However, Sir Patrick said he expected it "to be less than that".
But that figure for cases is just positive tests. There will be many more mild cases unrecorded so bring the rate down.
That’s not what the WHO are saying....
Bruce Aylward, World Health Organization Joint Mission to China:
"I think the key learning from China is speed — it’s all about the speed. The faster you can find the cases, isolate the cases, and track their close contacts, the more successful you’re going to be. [...]
People keep saying [the cases are the] tip of the iceberg. But we couldn’t find that. We found there’s a lot of people who are cases, a lot of close contacts — but not a lot of asymptomatic circulation of this virus in the bigger population. And that’s different from flu. [...]
China got patients in treatment early and have highly sophisticated health care treatment procedures. They are really good at keeping people alive with this disease. They have a survival rate (with a mortality rate of just under 1% outside of Hubei province) for this disease I would not extrapolate to the rest of the world. What you’ve seen in Italy and Iran is that a lot of people are dying.
Panic and hysteria are not appropriate. This is a disease that is in the cases and their close contacts. It’s not a hidden enemy lurking behind bushes. Get organized, get educated, and get working."
Source: Vox Interview
This might be the funniest thing I’ve ever seen.
At least the Aussies are doing their best to keep us amused
I actually used to live in Wetherill Park, it was shit
I’ve just been to Boots asked the person in aisle what they thought was best for cleaner for killing Coronavirus.
Ammonia Cleaner they replied.
I apologised as I thought they worked there.
Coop is limiting med purchases now I see. The 2 near me anyway. Fair few toilet rolls in stock though.😄
I heard that declaring an emergency is the mechanism the USA use to release emergency funds from state and federal coffers. There may not be an actual emergency yet, but they’ll need money to put everything in place to prepare for one.
Having spoken to a nurse over in the US, they have patients who will only turn to medical attention when maggots are emerging from wounds, due to the costs involved.
I assume declaring a state of emergency will mean treatment for those without the insurance or the cash for the 'deductable' for the very expensive test/treatment and the figures will start to look a lot different there.
People keep saying [the cases are the] tip of the iceberg. But we couldn’t find that. We found there’s a lot of people who are cases, a lot of close contacts — but not a lot of asymptomatic circulation of this virus in the bigger population.
May be true but what I would do is carry out 10,000 random tests in the UK. All people who don't think they have it, haven't reported it etc,.
If the results show 0 people have it great, if they show 10 have it then bad as that could mean that 70,000 people have it in UK. My money would be on it not being 0
I agree Kerley, that would be an interesting test. I guess just too expensive. Also if I remember rightly, we don't have an antibody test, so that test would only capture those currently with it, not recovered.
Practically, I wonder if that knowledge would change the response
Turning to god won't be of any help
https://catholicherald.co.uk/lourdes-shrine-closes-healing-pools-as-precaution-against-coronavirus/
Why Italy ? and why those specific regions , did they all go on a mass pilgrimage to Wua Tan Clan in January and a load of people shipped it back with them ?
Maybe they have an aversion to soap and water, who knows
Also, if there 2 mutations , 1 being more virilant than the other , if you get the mild one are you immunised against the aggressive version , or can they tag-team and thats the killer blow?
If we get to full blown , widespread uncontained infection rates and the country goes into lockdown we are screwd . Selling beer to pubs with no customers is never going to happen.
Government experts are talking to the FA re football crowds, but if we go that far might as well shut all gyms ( warm , sweaty , damp shower rooms, lots of hand contact ) swimming pools/ sports centers , night clubs , bigger cricket games, wimbledon , F1 , Goodwood x 2 , BSB ,All music festivals that are over say 500 people , Concerts , Exhibitions , Ride London , London Marathon , Major horse races ,RIAT . plus hundreds more events that thousands of people flock to on a weekend . - cornwall
Be ok to go fishing , golf, bicycle, row, open water swim , rambling , fell running
Selling beer to pubs with no customers is never going to happen.
My local was as busy as usual last night. Come to think f it have a slight headache this morning.
My local was rammed too. And we all elbow-punched each other, which means the message is getting through.
Thank God eh.
🤷♂️🤦♂️
For those wondering if its OK to ride during the coronavirus, yes, if my local trails are anything to go by today, it was mobbed full of riders and hikers looking for an excuse not to wear masks or horde toilet paper.
If the results show 0 people have it great, if they show 10 have it then bad as that could mean that 70,000 people have it in UK. My money would be on it not being 0
There’s 164 confirmed cases out of population of 66m, sadly 2 deaths. I prefer facts as opposed to maybes.
I'm using this instead of Happy Birthday for hand washing. Seems more appropriate.[img]
[/img]
^^ the Lords prayer?
Looks Sandwich is off to buy some toilet roll.
Also, if there 2 mutations , 1 being more virilant than the other , if you get the mild one are you immunised against the aggressive version , or can they tag-team and thats the killer blow?
Conversely, I heard that people are possibly at risk from reinfection - patients who have been infected, recovered, and then testing positive again. It's not known if it is the tail of the original infection or reinfection. It is known for people to lose immunity but over such a short period? I'm doubtful but I'm not qualified in any way for anyone to just believe 'what I heard' as gospel
Off to that there London tonight for a couple of shows.
What's the best way to get some space on a packed tube carriage? A loud phlegmy cough? Chuck a roll of Andrex down the other end? Or just try and start a conversation like we used to do?
Says stay away from pets? Can my dog and cat get it!!?
they’re just a vector between you and other householders. No point trying to use separate rooms /crockery / bathrooms so that you’re not touching the same surfaces etc and then patting the same dog
It doesn’t give you the total number of people who catch flu.
It can't hope to really because 'having flu' in itself isn't something many people have to declare - its measurable if its so severe that you need to seek treatment. But on the only occasion I've had flu I didn't go to my GP - partly because it takes over a fortnight to get an appointment and partly because (in the absence of any any underlying health concerns or complications) I don't envisage there being anything a GP could do to make me better.
At the moment you'd expect C19 numbers to be more accurate of because the condition is under such scrutiny - it newsworthy and its also notifiable - theres are duty on people who are / think they might be infected to make that known.
Where figure accuracy will also differ between the two conditions though is our understanding of the mortality of flu is largely backwards looking - we can look in retrospect at various seasonal outbreaks and seeing totals of notified cases and totals of fatalities. Clouding the understanding of C19 is the fact that we're in the middle of it (or I guess right at the start of it) - it seems to take around a week from an infection being apparent to it being fatal. We're tending to read about to total of infections to date and comporting it to the total of fatalities to date - but we should be comparing the fatalities to date against the level of infection a week or so ago.
Tweeted by Stephen King...
This came up on FB so it must be real.
Poor bloody sods.😟
Coronavirus: Dozens trapped as China quarantine hotel collapses
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51784167
WTF?
Buildings don't just collapse...
Edit. Reports of an explosion heard.
They probably can I suppose, or it was assisted my a gas /oxygen explosion?
Buildings don’t just collapse…
Sometimes they do if they've not been built correctly.
Pharmacy just up the road from us has closed due to suspected case. Fortunately there's only about 75,000 visitors pursuing through today.
Terrible news but let’s take stop the conspiracy, buildings collapse.
That video appears to prove that buildings don't just collapse though.
From an engineers perspective you can clearly see foul play, the manner in which the walls collapse would indicate a demolition expert using small controlled explosions.
FFS! I just came back from Tesco and 80% pasta are sold out. 🙄
Luckily there are still some chapati flour around ...
One of my children, who lives in Milan, has just said that the entire region is now in quarantine, not just those villages. He can't leave, we can't visit!
Not quite sure what that means.
My g/f works on the till at B&M, and uses hand gel during the day, because she’s handling money and her hands get dirty, obviously. Anyway, yesterday some woman saw her using it just before being served, and demanded to know why the bottle wasn’t on the counter so that customers could use it! Jo pointed out that it would be stolen almost as soon as she put it there, to which the daft bat replied, ‘no it wouldn’t!’ Jo replied, people are stealing the bottles of hand sanitizer from the wall in hospitals, so they’ll definitely steal hers! (Fact, btw)*, The woman behind just rolled her eyes, talk about a sense of entitlement big enough to have its own postcode.
*Bath RUH, one of the blokes I work with, his partners best friend works at the RUH, and it’s become a real problem there.
My local tesco extra completely out of pasta. That's 5 shelves high by 10ft run all bare. Beans very low, tinned Tom's all sold out. Bog roll down to the expensive ones. Tinned tuna still well stocked though.
Proper mental panic buying and no one within say 20 miles is confirmed afaik
Picked up a few things I normally wouldn't, those bake off white baguette, a couple of bags of tortilla wraps. Tins of tuna and beans and sausages and a couple of litres of squash.
FFS! I just came back from Tesco and 80% pasta are sold out.
I went to HiYou for some more of favourite Soya source the shelves were as packed as ever.
I suspect we will look back at the current "panic buying" a few weeks from now and current levels will seem reasonable in comparison.
The kids have got the real hand sanitizer, I'm onto the homemade stuff now. I knew that 5 litres of isopropyl alcohol would come in handy. 🙂
You looked at current prices of the stuff? IPA I mean.
You got the 70% or the 99% full Armageddon stuff?😄
My bike is going to have no paint on it but be surgically clean if the apocalypse goes away with a bubbly fart!
Drac that looks like it was a building site, no doubt someone got overzealous with 'opening up' works...
As a rule they don't fall down. Yes there are examples of shoddy workmanship in sweatshops, but a 2018 hotel in China I'd expect to be more robust...
Not saying foul play but that's bloody awful luck to be quarantined in a hotel that then has an explosion in the kitchen (that's a guess btw, can't think of another reason off that would make sense, possibly a vehicle impact, but unlikely to bring the whole thing down)
Well, my parents are very worried.
Which with age, health and 24hr news bombardment isn’t surprising.
As a rule they don’t fall down. Yes there are examples of shoddy workmanship in sweatshops,
As a rule they don’t but there’s lots of exceptions.
Using Epicyclo's cartoon post above ^^^ as a jumping-off point....there appears to be no doubt the virus originated in Wuhan; massive disruption; significant economic impacts with much more to follow as just-in-time supply chains begin to fail with resulting impact on manufacturing; pharmaceutical supply from India (major manufacturer) affected by shortage of raw materials from China.
So, huge costs; how long before noises that China should accept responsibility and provide financial 'recompense'. I know it won't happen.
Having said that, at some point covid-19 will come under control but after that how long before the next new virus from a Chinese wet market?
Millennial Hipsters to be banned from saving your lives!
This is what it must feel like to make up the front page of The Mail.😄
piemonster
Member
Well, my parents are very worried.Which with age, health and 24hr news bombardment isn’t surprising.
To be honest mate, that could be handy. Been chatting to a friend today about her parents who are intent to just carry on regardless it would seem. They are definitely in a high risk category.
I'm deeply concerned myself as I'm a carer for my elderly mother. I'm taking every precaution I can but I'm still bricking it.
You got the 70% or the 99% full Armageddon stuff?
It needs to be diluted down to 70% anyway. If it’s neat it evaporates away too quickly and doesn’t have time to kill anything.
^^ I was wondering about that as even with the 70% stuff it evaporates within a few seconds.
It needs to be diluted down to 70% anyway. If it’s neat it evaporates away too quickly and doesn’t have time to kill anything.
I followed the WHO recipe. Has a bit of water in it.
So down to about 70%? Didn't see advice from WHO on this, cheers!
It's not official advice, I think it's just what they tell outbreak workers in dodgy places to do if they run out of the factory stuff.
Cheers mate, just found some other info that seems to say 70% is about right as you mention.
Got some 99% arriving too, so glad I checked this out.
Northern Italy to Quarantine 16 million people
Someone mentioned this earlier I think as his son was in Milan?
Bloody hell. Strangely seems more chilling to see a western democracy need to resort to this.
Like I said earlier, when this sort of stuff hits the news here and even happens here.... We haven't even begun to see true panic buying yet. S***.😟
Happening thick and fast tonight, looking at the headlines in the papers, if taken at face value:
Upto 3 million volunteers are expected to volunteer in the NHS with legislation being made to allow them to return to their normal employment after the crisis.
Councils being sent projected death estimates.
Supermarkets rationing canned food, dry pasta and UHT milk etc.
Anyway...
I won't be going to asda tomorrow afternoon that's for sure. Hell, people kick off over a flat screen TV these days.Lol
"exciting" times.....
Are we just delaying the inevitable?
Part of me thinks let's get veins infected and get the while thing over and done with....
So basically northern Italy is a no go, in or out?
Part of me thinks let’s get veins infected and get the while thing over and done with…
What does "over and done with" mean? We're in one of those things where the numbers don't click with people.
Let's say 1% dead globally
That's about 76 million
Any idea what the impact of 76 million dead has on any number of areas?
Financial markets
Public services
Industry
Education
Social standards
Etc
There is no ripping the band aid off for this
Any idea what the impact of 76 million dead has on any number of areas?
Sounds dramatic doesn’t it?
But let’s not forget that the normal global death rate is currently sitting at around 60 million, with the birth rate being 150 million. So even if all 76 million projected COVID deaths are over and above ‘normal’ deaths this virus will most likely not even cause a net population decrease across the globe, just a temporary slowing. But actually, consider that the demographic most likely to succumb to COVID are the elderly with multiple comorbidities. The fact is that this demographic are largely ‘next to go’ anyway; so your 76 million dead actually is probably more like 15-25 million more than the usual death rate, globally, with a predicted lower than usual death rate the following years. So you know, not so dramatic. And that’s if the mortality rate of COVID has been correctly estimated, which is yet to be seen. There is an awful lot of ‘worst case scenario’ planning (which is fair enough in and of itself) being gleefully reported as the likely factual outcome, when the reality will likely be less dramatic.
Yup V8 said the press will be reporting the worst case scenario. Especially if only read headlines.
Follow it online
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
people are stealing the bottles of hand sanitizer from the wall in hospitals, so they’ll definitely steal hers! (Fact, btw)
I've a friend in Lancaster who is physio.
Someone snuck in and stole the box they had in a store room of small hand held gel bottles, plus most of the ones sat on desks on on walls in treatment rooms.
As you can imaging, physio's use them all the time between patients.
Part of me thinks let’s get veins infected and get the while thing over and done with….
I suspect there will be big changes here within 2 weeks...
This virus is now out in the wild in the UK, Infections have gone up 10X from 20 to 200 in one week. If that continues unchecked we’ll be at 2,000 next week, then 20,000 the week after.
In Italy 10% need mechanical ventilation in intensive care to keep them alive.
We only have 7-800 spare ICU beds in the UK.
10% of 20,000 is 2000 requiring ICU in 2 weeks.
Anyone spot the problem!
1% death rate once this gets going is wishful thinking.
Watched this and it would explain a lot about why it’s so difficult to contain.
Nah, it’s just a cold mate....
those bake off white baguette, a couple of bags of tortilla wraps. Tins of tuna and beans and sausages and a couple of litres of squash.
Well, you'll be just fine when the world ends...
Italy is drastic, but sensible. It's the 'carry on regardless' folks who spread things like this the worse.
"Wash my hands? Never". "Sneeze into a hankie? But it'll spoil the line of my cardy."
You don't need to keep going to the football when you might give your bugs to someone who can't take it.
My kids are really looking forward to GB schools closing. They will be disappointed when it co-incides with the Easter break.