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Woody - hugely difficult but within England, its in my opinion, likely to be effective. The Highlands, much less so but that's part of the reason why Scotland are still in full lockdown.
The government could have done so much better for England. Instructed limits on travel distance, required people to stay away from rural communities, made sure the stakeholders were on board. They didn't, but fundamentally its right that being outdoors is low risk and people need some relief.
Woody - there isn’t the infrastructure ANYWHERE to support this outbreak. I live in Rural East Sussex and hardly see a soul. Even down here the Forestry Commission have been taping off little car parks, forcing everyone into less and less space. We need to share it out a little.
As for medical resources, loads of my RAF mates have been on standby to move patients to capacity where necessary.
what harm is there in allowing day trippers from the nearby cities if they want to walk in the hills and have a picnic?
1. Most visitors will probably just be flocking to Windermere, Keswick, Grasmere, Ambleside, etc.
2. Before venturing out on the fells at the moment have a read at this. You might think it far fetched, that's for you to decide:
When Peter Bone has you agreeing fervently…
Unfortunately Peter Bone does not seem to have noticed that Parliament doesn’t work that way any more. Johnson and Cummings do what they want, the tabloids applaud and the MPs can go stuff themselves.
I was reassured some time ago on another thread that we didn't need a formal, written constitution.
I'm not so sure now.
That said.... Trump.
Immediately following the election I predicted, on the GE thread, that cummings would be gone by mid-year and johnson by end of 2020.
Should have placed a bet on that.
I have little doubt that johnson is beginning to see cummings as a liability and will ditch him before long.
If/when that happens will the poisonous weasel turn on the blond buffoon?
As for johnson, he's all about the good times; he didn't expect to be so deep in shit with no way out. He will either be removed or decide to stand down (ill health or some other bollocks) within 6 - 9 months so maybe not by end of 2020 but won't extend much beyond that.
I think we'll see Sunak getting taken out - some kind of press "scandal" - as the year comes to a close. Too bright, too young, too competent (to the public and press), starting to get ambitious. A challenge to the boys at the top.
singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/wheres-the-coronavirus-were-all-going-to-die-conspiracy-thread/page/293/#post-11188534
This is quite important
Probably not so much 'what's allowed' as designed to limit access to certain land or to give the landowner a choice as to whether they allow access. Examples I can think of include Forestry Commission with trails could choose to keep their car parks closed, or climbing on crags on private land but which otherwise have access agreements
Just got an email to all National Trust letter to members - again note most staff being on furlough. Although not key workers they are now on the front line in terms of public facing roles. Yet the Covid risk assessment guidance only came out yesterday. Which demonstrates a level of detachment by the government as to how organisations work and how long things take to do. Even at pace I would suggest this is not within 48hrs.
Just thinking about environmental charities who have car parks - many will have closed these and furloughed the staff. Today may fall within a 3 week furlough cycle rather than at the end of one. Pulling staff back in to do work forfeits all payment within this cycle - saving the government money but costing these organisations. Money which may not be replaced as people either don't donate / renew membership due to their own financial situation or donate to welfare causes.
Just thinking about environmental charities who have car parks – many will have closed these and furloughed the staff. Today may fall within a 3 week furlough cycle rather than at the end of one. Pulling staff back in to do work forfeits all payment within this cycle – saving the government money but costing these organisations. Money which may not be replaced as people either don’t donate / renew membership due to their own financial situation or donate to welfare causes.
Just because the public are out and about more than they have been for the last 6/7 weeks does not mean that they can expect or are entitled to find all car parks they previously would have used immediately available for their disposal. They will get opened when they can be and if the staff are currently in a furlough cycle (which I doubt as most car parks have been shut a lot longer than 3 weeks - the furlough scheme does not say you can only come back once every three weeks, merely that you have to be furloughed for a minimum of 3 weeks) they will stay shut a while longer. I see no big problem there.
Today may fall within a 3 week furlough cycle rather than at the end of one. Pulling staff back in to do work forfeits all payment within this cycle – saving the government money but costing these organisations.
This is not true, a furlough period may last more than 3 weeks- it's only if the employee is called back to work then put on furlough again that the clock is reset.
My question is answered:
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/coronavirus-guidance-on-access-to-green-spaces
- all forms of water sports practiced on open waterways, including sailing, windsurfing, canoeing, rowing, kayaking, surfing, paddle-boarding and the use of privately-owned motorised craft (in line with the guidance issued by the relevant navigation authority) are allowed. You can continue to use towpaths for walking, running and cycling, being mindful of other users and people living in boats along the water
- go swimming in either lakes or the sea as part of daily exercise provided that social distancing guidelines are observed - you cannot use public indoor and outdoor pools
I think we’ll see Sunak getting taken out – some kind of press “scandal” – as the year comes to a close. Too bright, too young, too competent (to the public and press), starting to get ambitious. A challenge to the boys at the top.
I guess that all rather depends on whether he has enough dirt on the big boys.
100 deaths/day for the rest of the year would be an extra 18k for 2020.
Question is, do we believe C19 deaths will be down at 100 deaths today after returns to work and (some) schools going back and all that?
Question is, do we believe C19 deaths will be down at 100 deaths today after returns to work and (some) schools going back and all that?
I dont see how it can be kept under control until we instigate test, track & trace & NHS are expecting a 2nd spike by June
Just been chatting to a workmate whos back in germany (she needed some dentistry but couldnt get an appointment here)), shes had to stay in quarantine for 14 days, whilst there, but is looking forward to a spin class tomorrow when it ends! Their contract tracing app isnt running yet, but any +ve test gets manually tracked.
When she comes back next week she probably wont face any quarantine though which is mad
Question is, do we believe C19 deaths will be down at 100 deaths today after returns to work and (some) schools going back and all that?
Based on the news of overcrowded trains and buses with no social distancing and even less facemasks today - no. We'll be back in full lockdown - in London at least - next week.
Experiment No1 has commenced, the public have obliged and Nightingale stands ready.
Experiment No1 has commenced, the public have obliged
the cynic in me wonders if it was basically a way of getting a load of mixing for a few days to see what happened to case load, without ever officially announcing much change, allowing an easier official backpedal.
and Nightingale stands ready.
...and unstaffed.
Question is, do we believe C19 deaths will be down at 100 deaths today after returns to work and (some) schools going back and all that?
But there will be at least a 2 to 3 week lag between any changes today and changes in death rates. I don't think you'll see the effect for a little while.
But there will be at least a 2 to 3 week lag between any changes today and changes in death rates. I don’t think you’ll see the effect for a little while.
I quite agree.
And the recent changes in quantity of testing mask the really useful conclusions we might otherwise have drawn from the 'new case' numbers.
But there will be at least a 2 to 3 week lag between any changes today and changes in death rates. I don’t think you’ll see the effect for a little while.
Yeah but - referring to London's experience this morning - from what us armchair internet warriors know about Covid19 it doesn't need a genius to wait 2-3 weeks to predict the outcome....
We probably can't predict the magnitude of the outcome though.
Some excellent advice from MREW
Trumps all the alarmist nonsense from some of the local teams, the national parks and tourism authorities.
Government advice to parents, from an email from Jnrs college:
"We will only [allow schools and colleges to re-open] provided that the 5 key tests set by government justify the changes at the time, including that the rate of infection is decreasing and the enabling programmes set out in the road-map are operating effectively"
How confident are we that this won't be fudged?
Johnson is getting a proper kicking from everyone on PMQ's at the moment, just a shame its not a literal kicking at the top of a flight of stairs.
What a tramp of a man he is.
Total B***ends
Are you referring to the folk who wrote that click-bait bullshit article?
RM.
I assume you were one of those trying to cross illegally then Rogermoore?
Year 10 and 12 are back for some face to face from 1st June.
This from DFE, and someone had better speak to Boris, because on Sunday/Monday, he said only primary. DFE does explicitly say that the Y10/Y12 will not be a full timetable, but 1 and 6 will be.
This from DFE, and someone had better speak to Boris,
Said this on sunday
someone had better speak to Boris
Could it be an officer of the law, reading him his rights?
Man can dream.
I assume you were one of those trying to cross illegally then Rogermoore?
Nah, but neither were the imaginary ones made up in the article.
RM.
This from DFE, and someone had better speak to Boris, because on Sunday/Monday, he said only primary. DFE does explicitly say that the Y10/Y12 will not be a full timetable, but 1 and 6 will be.
Pretty sure it was mentioned on Sunday, and was a scenario my lads college were already discussing with parents a week or two before then.
I'm at a loss ... my immune system is highly screwed up. It's not weak, it's over enthusiastic and loves nothing better than to go ape on the rest of me. I don't have a clue how it will react to C-19.... I rather suspect either I'd be mostly asymptomatic/short battle or full on cytokine storm.
Based on that I've been self isolating... Now OH has to go back to teach Yr.1 (paid as a TA but qualified to teach but then basically just acting as a childminder anyway) ... and Jnr go into Yr 6 for some indeterminate reason. Other than doing his SAT's this week they haven't set anything academic since lockdown (drawings and models) and they have no academic curriculum left once he goes back.
Now I'm working out if/how I can move out somewhere and for how long?
I guess the silver lining is I give it 2 weeks for them all to get infected after 1st June then 2 weeks for symptoms so it's probably just quite temporary???
I am the same. I'm on an immunosuppressant therapy to reign in my immune system, and as a result I am supposed to be "Shielding". This is possible at the moment as my wife and kids are effectively Shielding too, but once they return to work/school, I'll be vulnerable, so I am thinking about what I can do. Retreating into one room and closing the door can't be a long term solution.
Press briefing time…
484 more deaths in 24 hours. And that’s with the previous control measures, what will Today’s new slacker measures bring? Will we see a graph comparing us with other countries…? Any mention of lessons to learn from their moves to slacker control measures?
Retreating into one room and closing the door can’t be a long term solution.
We all need to be responsible for stopping the spread of the virus through our communities. We can’t expect you to live in a bubble.
Disappointing that most of the media questions at today's presser are re-hashes of Starmer's questions at PMQs.
If johnson wouldn't answer, why do the journos think one of his acolytes would do anything different?
The media need to up their game.
Are we allowed some levity on this thread?
moab - very good; levity needed.
Troutwrestler
I am the same. I’m on an immunosuppressant therapy to reign in my immune system, and as a result I am supposed to be “Shielding”. This is possible at the moment as my wife and kids are effectively Shielding too, but once they return to work/school, I’ll be vulnerable, so I am thinking about what I can do. Retreating into one room and closing the door can’t be a long term solution.
I'm not on immuno-suppressants at the moment so I can't even see that being a short term option.
Getting a dosage correct would take months and even then it would need to target the correct parts of the immune system.
From the sound of it your's isn't balanced ??
So far I got missed off the "critical/DNR/don't waste a ICU bed list" ... I'm not exactly keen to put my name on.
We all need to be responsible for stopping the spread of the virus through our communities. We can’t expect you to live in a bubble.
Easier said than done when the government is intent on spreading it.
It beats me how we expect a different result to Germany ... or why people believe that the UK is so much better/more organised-prepared than Germany.
Mrs RNP had bit of a nose dive over the last few days, absolutely wiped out and her neck glands are swollen/hurting. Rung GP who wanted her to have a Corona test even though it was 7 weeks ago since she first came down with it. Also prescribed amoxycelin.
Went to Manchester Airport pop up testing centre as its our localish one (25mile away).
The staff there were great - keep your windows closed and ring them on the numbers instructed. You get a bag with enclosed instructions and swab kit. Drive across to a parking area where you do the swabbing yourself then to a final cabin where you seal and deposit it.
So good set up and well run.....but there was just nobody there! Literally just us and a few other cars.
Anyone been out today?
Just took the older 2 boys round local trails at Woburn
It was busiest I've seen it in weeks, and it's a quite cold day
TBF most people were in couples or families riding or dog walking & maintaining social distancing, but there was one group of 7 teenagers all riding together and 2 other groups of lads just hanging out.
There was also a police van at the trail head when we were leaving
So good set up and well run…..but there was just nobody there! Literally just us and a few other cars.
There's one along at the airport, about 10 mins walk from here, never anyone at it.
I think with the latest news, that I can put my house up for sale and have several groups of randomers over to look in the loft and check out the damp in the basement, but can’t have family/friends over for a cuppa makes a whole mockery of everything.
Not surprised that people can’t be bothered with things anymore and will just go out regardless.
Sorry to hear that Rusty, hope she makes a quick turnaround
makes a whole mockery of everything
Nothing to do with Tory donors getting their show homes open, oh no.
So good set up and well run…..but there was just nobody there!
Your other half is lucky to have you to look after her, and drive her to the test centre. I hope things improve for her soon.
Easier said than done when the government is intent on spreading it.
It does look that way… keep it spreading at a rate the NHS can deal with, no willingness to try and contain and suppress it.
Premier Icon
piemonster
SubscriberSorry to hear that Rusty, hope she makes a quick turnaround
Thanks 👍 im sure the amoxycillin will kick the shit out of whatever lurgy she has at the moment.
@kimbers - quieter here but in Wales and also its cold. Did our normal walk and saw half the people.
A friend posted a screenshot on social media (i glanced at it didnt verify if true) saying that you were allowed to car share to get to work so long as you had the windows open!!
kelvin
SubscriberIt does look that way… keep it spreading at a rate the NHS can deal with
This isn't a rate the NHS can deal with though. It's a rate the NHS can deal with while closing down other essential services and burning out staff, which is tolerable for short periods but totally unsustainable. Again because of the high incidence in the population rather than the rate of spread.
I think with the latest news, that I can put my house up for sale and have several groups of randomers over to look in the loft and check out the damp in the basement, but can’t have family/friends over for a cuppa makes a whole mockery of everything.
Speaking to agents today for work, they are a long way from letting people loose in your house. The rules around any visits sound a nightmare, even if a property is vacant.
The rules around any visits sound a nightmare
Not for show homes. Wakey, wakey… this is for Tony donors, not the average joe looking to move.
Not for show homes. Wakey, wakey… this is for Tony donors, not the average joe looking to move.
Tory donors Taylor Wimpey were even thanked on tonights briefing for their social distancing/getting back to work and helping to build our way out of recession.
You scratch my back, i’ll scratch yours.
Article on a fairly large (70k) Anti Body testing in Spain
5% average, 14.2% in the most affected region.
Which considering the scale of impact, makes me wonder about Gangelt.
I was reading up today on how much this is all costing us. Do you know- its surprisingly little in the grand scheme of things. Its costing £14bn/month, so £168bn/year. The 2008 crash cost £500bn, much of which was paid back of course.
If these numbers are accurate, then this proves something: UBI, which would cost less, could be a success, if implemented carefully. We're pretty much on an unscripted & unplanned UBI deployment right now with furlough, and the bulk of that money is going straight back into the economy in food, bills, etc.
Imagine what could be done in the right hands with this. Could be a good move as a Keynesian booster post-Covid.
Most of that $500bn figure for 2008 was in guarantees/indemnities. The actual amount spent on share purchase was just over £100bn I believe. Someone feel free to correct.
Imagine what could be done in the right hands with this. Could be a good move as a Keynesian booster post-Covid.
Yeah but, work shy wasters, blah blah blah
rydster- quite correct, but I kept it at the official 'total' figure, just for completeness.
a_a- indeed. And this is why it will probably never be a 'thing'.
Anyway- hope it was of interest.
As for house builders re-opening sites; building houses when the market for them is disappearing in front of their eyes.
How few local residents would welcome construction activity continuing until 9pm? But jenrick made it clear he would not expect councils to refuse permission to builders; I anticipate multiple representations to local councils - let's see how they react.
Returning to the thread title all those 293 pages ago....we're not all going to die from/with coronavirus but the WHO are saying we might have to learn to live with it.
I'm sure we all recognise that's a possibility as there is no guarantee a vaccine will be developed but the message is timely.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that Covid-19 may be here to stay.
"This virus may become just another endemic virus in our communities and this virus may never go away," Michael Ryan, the WHO's emergencies director, told a virtual press conference in Geneva.
"HIV has not gone away - but we have come to terms with the virus."
He said that, without a vaccine, it could take years for the population to build up sufficient levels of immunity to the virus. There are many attempts being carried out around the world to develop a vaccine but experts say there is a risk that one may never be created.
Meanwhile, as countries across the globe start easing lockdown measures, WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned that the process could trigger new waves of infections.
Ryan said there was lots of "magical thinking" surrounding countries opening back up. He added that there was a "long, long way to go" on the path to returning to normal.
That's an interesting question. Noise from a building site is a potential liability under the tort of nuisance. What basis is there in common law for a noise to be reasonable just because there is a threat of economic recession which needs staving off? Answers anyone? 😀 Can builders make more noise now if it helps them avoid bankruptcy??!!
god this is so depressing
the whole freaking point of a testing programme is that the data is used to help track & treat patients in the community
Instead its simply a number for the minister to waive around at the daily briefing
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-testing-labs-nhs-deloitte-uk-a9511766.html
We can’t expect you to live in a bubble.
Says someone not on immunosuppressants. IN your position steve, I'd definitely be cautious at this stage. If an antiviral or other therapeutic option is available, things may be different. The case of the vulnerable child or child who lives with a vulnerable adult seems poorly defined - It's a hard edge case and there isn't going to be an obvious answer. But children won't be getting any significant education for months anyway - they are better off with BBC Schools.
Article on a fairly large (70k) Anti Body testing in Spain
5% average, 14.2% in the most affected region.
I've said it multiple times, I would be amazed if we have reached 10% prevalence in the UK. Even 5% would be optimistic outside London. The mortality figure backs this up with. Similar surveys are being done in the UK too. Even a poor assay gives good results on this sample size.
I would be amazed if we have reached 10% prevalence in the UK. Even 5% would be optimistic outside London.
So where did the estimates of 6-7 weeks ago come from?
Open letter from UK statistics regulator to hancock asking for clarity on what the testing numbers refer to.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/12/uk-statistics-chief-calls-for-clarity-over-daily-covid-19-test-count
Original story in HSJ but I can't access it.
Would be very interested in hancock's response - if he bothers.
Apologies if this has been done.
We can’t expect you to live in a bubble.
Says someone not on immunosuppressants.
That was a harsh bit of selective quoting and replying. He said he has been cautious. I was making it clear that rest of also have a responsibility in stopping the spread of this virus, it should not just be left to those at most risk to cut themselves off. Yes, there are many people who have to be extra safe and minimise contact, but we can all help them by getting this virus under control.
There is a theme at large that the rest of us should not have to make sacrifices to help protect the vulnerable, and that they should just ‘look after themselves’. At every opportunity I would like to stress that we can only control this virus as a community, by us all acting to stop the spread.
kimbers
Subscribergod this is so depressing
the whole freaking point of a testing programme is that the data is used to help track & treat patients in the community
Instead its simply a number for the minister to waive around at the daily briefing
You'd not be too shocked to find out they'd tested one person 100000 times tbh
the whole freaking point of a testing programme is that the data is used to help track & treat patients in the community
That’s the issue your treating it as a Medical Crisis they’re treating it as a PR one 🙁
It just occurred to me, given the average 5day incubation period, we should start to see a post VE Day upswing in cases soon 🙁
I guess it will take a while for it to filter through though
I would be amazed if we have reached 10% prevalence in the UK. Even 5% would be optimistic outside London.
We are at 50 or 60000 deaths. Which is 1% of 5 or 6 million. Either the death rate is greater than 1% (and you keep telling us you think it will end up at less that 0.5%) or around 10% have had it. Which do you think it is?
Overall IFR of less than 0.5% is getting increasingly hard to reconcile with the evidence. Comparing between areas is hard but Ecuador is an incredibly young country by our standards and they've had over 0.25% *total* mortality in one region, despite a lockdown that helped to suppress the outbreak (probably, herd immunity played a role there too, with a substantial proportion infected).
Of course the health care there was overwhelmed to a greater extent than in the UK. BUt...they have less than half the elderly that we have, proportionally to their population.
BTW those who argue that the NHS coped adequately in the UK should ask themselves how come most of the dying victims didn't get any hospital treatment. Easy enough to avoid being overwhelmed if you just shut your doors.
My initial guesstimate made 6 weeks ago based on a subjective evaluation of the evidence was 0.75±0.25% overall assuming decent healthcare. A new meta-analysis has just come out...and their estimate is....0.75±0.26%. I'll forgive them the extra 0.01%.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v1
I would be amazed if we have reached 10% prevalence in the UK
I would be amazed if it was that low. This is a very contagious virus and people were generally acting with abandon until the lockdown started.
we know the elderly and care homes are being hit hard but just seen a report on BBC of a near threefold increase in the death rate of people with learning disabilities compared to previous years. Those that need the care most are being let down by the system, and those at the top need to be held responsible.
singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/wheres-the-coronavirus-were-all-going-to-die-conspiracy-thread/page/294/#post-11189709
They can’t make more noise now but they can make the same level of permitted noise for longer.
Easy enough to avoid being overwhelmed if you just shut your doors.
Have you a source for that, because I don't recall hearing it either on social media or through friends in the NHS.
If you have no source to back that up, that's a pretty serious allegation to be bandying around, and rather insulting to the work the NHS have put in
Have you a source for that, because I don’t recall hearing it either on social media or through friends in the NHS
It's even in the Telegraph
It's all over the media that care home residents were sent back to die in (and pass on infection) in the care homes. Have you been living under a rock for the past month?
kelvin
It does look that way… keep it spreading at a rate the NHS can deal with, no willingness to try and contain and suppress it.
Northwind
This isn’t a rate the NHS can deal with though. It’s a rate the NHS can deal with while closing down other essential services and burning out staff, which is tolerable for short periods but totally unsustainable. Again because of the high incidence in the population rather than the rate of spread.
Not even ... the NHS has offloaded onto care homes.
The government still won't buy the PPE
We are still not testing anywhere near enough
The UK (English) Government inparticular continues to give out misleading, confusing and contradictory "advice" but this also extends to Wales/NI/Scotland to more limited extents and where they do diverge just increases confusion and contradictions.
Take all these together not individually ...
Avoiding pedantry over if a virus is actually "alive" or not this feels like a Jurassic Park moment waiting to happen.
At all levels we seem to be seeing a dangerous combination of this confusion ... and perfectly predictable events surprising us with a rolling 2-3 week "oh well we are where we are".
We can go back to NT free parking.... I'm not blaming the NT, they are not virologists or epidemologists (well some might actually be for animals and plants)...but what part of "free parking this weekend" wasn't predictable?
NO-ONE in government said "nice sentiment but...." so just another "oops", its done now and we won't know the consequences for weeks... instead they just let it happen.
I've already read countless official/semi-official advice that breathing in the same air someone exhaled <1/4 second earlier is "safe". "Ride 2m apart ???"
You can play tennis with someone outside your household... apparently tennis balls are one of those magical items can't carry the virus...?? Our local council having a free paper posted by the mail... specifically at the most vulnerable (because older people don't have the internet) because the virus can't survive on newsprint?? [When I may posted this is specified ... my postie leaves the mail in the plastic box [he's also a post doc researcher in genome sequencing] but they have been specifically instructed to POST the newspaper or hand to a resident when the postbox is boarded up like ours and ignore signs asking otherwise.
The RSPCA is running adverts you can't get CV from your dog or cat... (another magic substance seems to be dog/cat fur/saliva?)
The school sent a government sponsored e-book... apparently you can't die from Covid (but some people can get very sick) and if you cough into your elbow then you can't spread the virus....
Meanwhile some of the most useful advice comers from the most unexpected sources... The bin men are notifying residents theirs could be the 2000th bin they touched that day... the postie is saying the same and adding garden gates, letter boxes etc.
Enough of the essay ....
Have you been living under a rock for the past month?
Safest place!
Early on in the daily press briefings it was being banded about that there were 199, or so empty beds in ICU that day. That figure has stuck in my mind for some reason.
There are 168 hospital trusts with around 1257 hospital in the UK. It doesn’t take a maths genius to work out that critical beds were / are in short supply.