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BBC Scotland have already done a pandemic retrospective pointing out that 2,000 lives could have been saved in Scotland if lockdown had happened 2 weeks earlier.
Advisors advise. Ministers decide.
The basic premise is as follows:
1) A global pathogen was expanding in a fully susceptible population with a doubling time of 2-3 days
2) No treatment options mean that morbidity and mortality would overwhelm healthcare
3) Reduction in rate of new cases can only be achieved by reducing contacts
Those were the facts, the subtleties are for debate:
1) How do we restrict contacts?
2) What is the risk to each age group?
3) What are the economic consequences?
Ministers decided the policy based on predictions based on incomplete science. Once the lockdown decision is made, the next step is to try and balance health and economics. Science does not inform on economics.
As for slogans? "Get Covid done"? 😉
BTW, Although "R" seems to be popular, I view it as a bit of a distraction. What matters is the slope of the cases and deaths curves, globally, nationally and at he regional level. R is a composite measure based on transmissibility and duration of infection. The latter is still poorly understood. The slope of the curve is definitely going down. Doubling and halving times are what matter.
TiRed - are there any glaring errors on that NCASE website Kryton linked to? Obviously not the full picture, but are the general principles it discusses valid for thickies like us?
Hancock on R4 now.
If you ever want to hear what a pointless political career unravelling in a few minutes sounds like, I would recommend a listen.
Nice but dim. You can sense Raab in the wings sharpening his dagger.
Hancock is still of use to them though, taking his daily trouncing so Joris doesn’t have to.
Posted 1 hour ago
True, I was waiting for him to lose his temper again like he did with Nick Robinson a couple of weeks ago. Odious little man.
All the chat I’ve heard about social distancing and spreading out tables in restaurants and bars will be utterly pointless when pubs are open and folk get a few drinks in them.
Absolutely this.
Here in Stockholm, the warmer weather has brought some really irresponsible behaviour out, partially helped by the fatigue of the situation and the desire, I think, to try and have some sort of normality return. Walking the dogs the other day we saw a bar in our local park doing an outdoor grill. I understand that this is a thing that they do, but people were clustered around the bar like flies round shit and even the people on the grass were moving towards it so that they could stay in the sunlight.
People will be people. If there is the slightest hint that they can relax, they will. If they get fatigued, they'll relax.
A different view on resuming economic activity
New York Times opinion piece looking at a part time rota based return.
Interesting. The only problem is areas that require full staff as they are busy.
Just read all the new guidance for schools. Apparently face masks for students and staff not necessary. Yet they are deemed advisable for general public when visiting shops, public transport etc. Hmmmm.
Guidance for 15 students in primary classrooms. Having seen some classrooms that will never give social distancing. We worked out that max number of students in some of our secondary classrooms, meeting 2m rule, was about 6 or 7.
kryton - selective quoting from my post about facemasks; tut tut - the very thing you complain about.
As for Screwfix, their website states 'We are sorry we haven’t got our usual stock available. Please note Screwfix is ringfencing PPE to donate to the NHS for distribution in hospitals, hospices and care homes. We have currently withdrawn from sale selected PPE products until further notice to ensure it is distributed to where it is most in need. Thank you for your patience'.
This does not reflect your interpretation.
You carry on fretting.
Social distancing in Stockholms bars and bars is monitored and if rules are broken they can be forced to close
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/newsbeat-52618788/coronavirus-how-sweden-is-keeping-its-pubs-and-bars-open
We worked out that max number of students in some of our secondary classrooms
@clink Secondary schools will not be going back (in England) until September. At the moment the plan is for selected PRIMARY school years to go back with an ambition for all primary children if conditions allow. What will the world be like in September - who knows, but trying to work out that now is a pointless exercise
In a slightly devil's advocate mode - the 1968 Hong Kong flu pandemic killed a million people including 100K in the USA. Not nice, but the economy didn't stop and the workd didn't end. How is this different ?
I think the main difference is that this will kill a million people even after the world stopped.
Hancock on R4 now.
Nice but dim.
Not nice at all - a rather nasty little piece of work. "I don't like your tone" etc.
Have we done the difference between the UK & Irish plans - the differences are staggering in the level of detail...
Regarding face masks - sorry if this has been covered else where. But...
Are the ones we are being encouraged to make from old t-shirts or socks actually effective or just a placebo mask?
Some prefer the term “reassuring”, rather than “placebo”.
Wuhan draws up plans to test all 11 million residents.
I’d missed that this was triggered by only six new confirmed cases. Why don’t they just wait ‘till 30,000 people have died, and then start some small trials to investigate what might be possible to contain the virus and stop it spreading… I thought the international community were “looking to us” to form the correct response as we “spearhead” efforts to beat the virus?
@clink Secondary schools will not be going back (in England) until September. At the moment the plan is for selected PRIMARY school years to go back with an ambition for all primary children if conditions allow. What will the world be like in September – who knows, but trying to work out that now is a pointless exercise
I know - but we are also been asked to have Year 10 in before the end of term. Our biggest issue is that 80% of students are on school buses.
Are the ones we are being encouraged to make from old t-shirts or socks actually effective or just a placebo mask?
Effective in as much as it stops you spraying spit and snot everywhere.
Completely ineffective in as much as it won't stop virus particles being inhaled/exhaled.
Further issues around the hygiene of the mask itself if it's being re-worn day in day out with no/minimal washing.
An interesting take on the "Stay alert" Teflon message
I thought the international community were “looking to us” to form the correct response as we “spearhead” efforts to beat the virus?
Foreigners, eh? What are they like?!
I know – but we are also been asked to have Year 10 in before the end of term. Our biggest issue is that 80% of students are on school buses.
My lad is at a 6th form college with the same issue.
If a head teacher/principal says "I cannot do this within social distancing guidelines, I can't sign it off as I'm responsible for the health and safety of staff and pupils" - what then? Remain at internet schooling with just half a dozen kids in each classroom on a lucky dip basis?
All Boris's plan was prefaced with "if we can/if the tests are met". I guess their desparation to get people back to work will be shown if they try and force things through against their current tests.
“I cannot do this within social distancing guidelines, I can’t sign it off as I’m responsible for the health and safety of staff and pupils” – what then?
That’s the issue not just for schools and colleges, but for all workplaces. And for some workplaces, the issue might be about to become more pressing than for schools, depending on what the chancellor announces today.
Watching the lunchtime news. Arlene Foster making sense relative to the English government. Just think about that 🙁
URL enough of a description frankly
anyone else find it very depressing that were being told to use cars as an alternative to public transport (I know cycling & walking also encouraged, but that isnt practical for some)
its been so nice seeing the roads less clogged & pollution down
DrJ
Member
Watching the lunchtime news. Arlene Foster making sense relative to the English government. Just think about that
I know, the NI advice seems completely free of nonsensical equations & graphs with flying bicycles, I bet she doesnt even mention common sense
Govt stats have been showing 40-50% of people wfh. Add furloughed staff into that, plus redundancies, that’s a natural drop in public transport usage. Then factor in leisure travel reduced to almost zero. Small percentages in cities choosing to walk /cycle, then the car will account for the rest.
What absolutely should be happening is full sized trains running throughout the day rather than dropping carriage outside rush hour.
We aren’t going to stop every transmission, but we can reduce the number.
Our local bike park is opening from tomorrow...
Watching the lunchtime news. Arlene Foster making sense relative to the English government. Just think about that
We really are through the looking glass now, aren't we?
I'm also enjoying how Nichola Sturgeon now longer makes even a token attempt to disguise her total contempt for the ****-wittery she's witnessing from Boris and chums and how she's having no part in it.
With this on top of Brexit, Boris really is pretty determined to oversee the break up of the UK
Plus another 10k in the all-cause mortality figures. If you would like some good news, all regions have now passed their peak in all-cause mortality. I now have a better predictor of total excess deaths based on peak and it’s not as bad as I first feared, but it’s bad (75k for England and Wales). For reference there were 228k deaths in the U.K. from influenza in 1918/19
That’s the first wave with, maybe, 5-10% infected. A second wave would not be welcome.
according to my doctor mate
I don't know what the other clinicians have heard but we had a Registrar meeting last Thursday - our hospital (Trust) is planning for a Second peak of Covid in June/July and then a third in Sept/Oct
Plus another 10k in the all-cause mortality figures.
Article on the FT for that
https://www.ft.com/content/40fc8904-febf-4a66-8d1c-ea3e48bbc034
The number of UK deaths during the coronavirus pandemic over and above normal levels has exceeded 50,000, official figures confirmed on Tuesday.
Anyone else suffering a bit of anxiety this week?
Since the last Bojo shitcast we've been contacted by friends who seem to be keen to start to return to normal. "meet up for a drink in the garden" "meet up for a bike ride" Everyone promising to maintain social distancing of course, but its making me feel anxious and a bit stressed. Im starting to wonder if either a) My reaction is quite normal and they are idiots or b) the last 7 weeks have had a strange effect on my mental health and i'm now irrationaly phobic of others.
Anyone else?
Anyone else suffering a bit of anxiety this week?
Yeah the same. Lots of people seeming to act as if the end of lockdown has come, yet I don't feel the same.
Can anyone answer this:
Daily cases are still ~4000 a day, but that's obviously not the real number as that's only tested people.
What I'm struggling with is what was the initial 'seed' figure of infected people in the first week or so?
If we assume the only cases we have are those tested, then that's still 28,000 new cases a week.
Surely our starting point must of been only a few hundred cases? Can social distancing really have a big enough impact to stop this just exploding again in a few weeks?
Anyone?
its making me feel anxious and a bit stressed. Im starting to wonder if either a) My reaction is quite normal and they are idiots or b) the last 7 weeks have had a strange effect on my mental health and i’m now irrationaly phobic of others.
I'm the same, although as a secondary teacher I appear to be lucky as I can keep my family doing just as we have been for some time yet.
@kiksy - there are signs that C19 was circulating in France at the end of 2019, so it’s probably not possible to really get a handle on the number who were carrying but asymptomatic and travelling backwards and forwards from December through January and February.
100 cases expanding at a fast enough rate / high enough R (TiRed says doubling every 3 days) is pretty soon a big number
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wheat_and_chessboard_problem
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/may/12/uk-rail-worker-dies-coronavirus-spat-belly-mujinga
We really are screwed. As soon as we're allowed out I'm off to live in a cave far away from "humans".
I now have a better predictor of total excess deaths based on peak and it’s not as bad as I first feared, but it’s bad (75k for England and Wales). For reference there were 228k deaths in the U.K. from influenza in 1918/19
That’s the first wave with, maybe, 5-10% infected. A second wave would not be welcome.
And that figure for now, is it with everybody hunkered down in their cave?
On excess deaths - According to the BBC
These 50,745 "extra deaths" are largely attributed to the pandemic.
The total seen so far in this first phase of the epidemic is roughly comparable to the winter of 2017/18, when England and Wales saw approximately 50,000 more deaths than they would ordinarily see during the summer months.
So with lockdown, the UK has managed to limit deaths to the equivalent of what presumably was a bad flu season?
is it with everybody hunkered down in their cave?
I was wondering the same.
Does 75k assume that new infections (and after lag, deaths) continue on the same path they are currently on? Why would that path not change as more people meet up before track/trace/isolate is in place?
@Blackflag luckily I've not been subjected to social requests from mates yet, I think the realise it's not the time yet, or more likely the fact that having an autistic kid means that we've been social distancing for ages :-).
But I reckon your reaction is perfectly normal. I'd be less worried about it as I'd tell them to sort themselves out and stop being nobheads, but that's probably another reason we've been so effective at social distancing 🙂
75k includes the actions we are taking now. It's that bad.
Interestig that Sunak has extended furlough until October, thats more or less the beginning of flu season, we would reasonably expect a second surge, so it would have to be extended again after that, as conditions for virus spread much more permissive?
Thought it might.
If we stretch this right out until a hypothetical vaccine arrives in a hypothetical 18 months-from-when-trials-started then, can we expect, assuming we can turn on and turn off the lockdown taps and 'save the NHS' by flatlining the ICU use - going to be see a few hundred dead every day for the duration until the vaccine turns up. Or, it's endemic and most people have Got Covid Done.
Thing is, 352 x 1.5 x 500 is a pretty large number, so, hoping I'm wrong there.
I have my fair share of anxiety and mental health issues. I'm actually pretty resigned to it just being something we get used to working around pending any potential vaccine. More wondering when is the least worst time to catch it, to be honest, in terms of NHS capacity
Lots of folk saying that they are looking forward to a ride or meeting up, and I'm not keen to do any such thing. We'll go out and take our chances as and when we see fit. If the school's think they can take the kids in the next few months, then we'll let them go I think, I could do to get stuff from the office if they let us in, wife still working almost as normal, but I'm not rushing to get out and socialise on top of that.
Based on current trends, I have used a simple epidemic model and then simultaneously related COVID deaths to all cause mortality. I do this for each NHS region then sum them up for England and Wales. The model predicts Wales all-cause mortality using predicted not observed COVID19 deaths There is a good relationship between the two. We are about 2/3 through wave 1. There may be a longer tail. But this is what the epidemic in E&W looks like. I have not included Scotland and NI as getting the data is protracted.
You will see an earlier peak in weeks 1 and 2 compared to 10-year mean as well.
100 deaths/day for the rest of the year would be an extra 18k for 2020.
Anyone else suffering a bit of anxiety this week?
I'm not personally anxious about the situation, because I'm fortunate to be able to work from home, but I wouldn't even think about meeting up with other people to go cycling, visit a park, or have people in my garden. I'm happy to go out for family walks or a solo cycle, and visit the supermarket for food once a week, but I am not going to risk any unnecessary exposure.
Some of the kids from different neighbouring families have been out playing together in the park which really surprised me. They're not daft, so I can't understand why they would take that risk.
Worked through the ncase website kryton linked to. And it's very nice. It is of course deterministic, so when you have low numbers you get time delays and die out, but I commend it as explaining the basic principles clearly.
BTW, I said before, I prefer doubling times to R values - the incidence of cases and deaths has an exponential slope and hence a doubling time (or halving if it's going down). R is confounded by a case duration, which is poorly defined. Up and down is easier.
I’m not personally anxious about the situation, because I’m fortunate to be able to work from home, but I wouldn’t even think about meeting up with other people to go cycling, visit a park, or have people in my garden. I’m happy to go out for family walks or a solo cycle, and visit the supermarket for food once a week, but I am not going to risk any unnecessary exposure.
Exactly this for me. I know the world is evolving into a different place outside my 4 walls but I'm surrendered to the fact I just have to roll with it.
Worked through the ncase website kryton linked to. And it’s very nice. It is of course deterministic, so when you have low numbers you get time delays and die out, but I commend it as explaining the basic principles clearly.
BTW, I said before, I prefer doubling times to R values – the incidence of cases and deaths has an exponential slope and hence a doubling time (or halving if it’s going down). R is confounded by a case duration, which is poorly defined. Up and down is easier.
On everybody's behalf thanks for doing so, although I can't take credit for the link it was another person in Unfitgeezers thread. Nice to have a little positivity.
Had a chat with a doctor recently. From what he's seeing about the gravity of cases there's one thing you can do to seriously reduce your chances of a trip to A&E with the virus. Get down to your ideal weight. It doesn't mean you won't catch it, it does mean you're very unlikely to get symptoms serious enough to put you in hospital. Out of curiosity I had a look at the STW Chub Club threads and compared weights with how serious people were in the have-you-had-it thread. For the STW sample my doc is right.
<0.9 @ 11th May 2020
<0.5 @ 1st June 2020 (might have miss read and it's 0.6)
<0.3 @ 1st July 2020
Can we really hit R of 0.5 in two weeks? Will we even have data that can give that level of confidence? Since we seem be in a range of 0.5 - 0.9 I'm going to have a punter level punt at 0.3 - 0.5 being the range for the next change. I just can't get my head round how these levels will drop with measures taking place that will increase potential contact and so transmission.
Can we really hit R of 0.5 in two weeks?
I think that's meant to be 'illustrative'. There's no time scale on the x axis, but perplexingly, actions which would increase mythical R (by amounts we can argue about but in all cases increase) seem to decrease it. Other criticisms will be along in a minute.
Just editing to say that I'm personally not at all worried about getting C19. I'm more worried about my kids, two of whom graduate this summer, one of whom's signed up for a few more months in china, getting jobs. And seeing my stuck in his room in a care home father again. I do all the tedious distancing stuff, but am more concerned with social disapprobation than getting ill.
That graph is kind of misleading as you suggest since it has no counterfactuals.
I know it's meant to be illustrative but when the actions have been taken when R value is 0.9. The next change is show as being equivalent to 0.5. They are talking in terms of R value so it would be fair to assume it is a fair representation of the level required for a change relative to the others.
The graphic is not a graph with R on an axis… if you want to treat it like like a graph (my advice is that you don’t) then where the gradient becomes more shallow, it is because R is increasing, but remaining less than 1.
it would be fair to assume it is a fair representation of the level required for a change relative to the others.
I'd call that a generous reading and blame the graphic designer...
And the graphic is misleading. I would argue that it is designed to be misleading, because not only do they know people will treat it as a graph (they really shouldn’t), but they know it will result in misunderstandings. The misinformation is designed into it… but they can blame people for reading too much into it… even though they want them to.
Really the point I'm making is something is being shown that at first glance suggest a big drop in value is required compared to the current situation. Upper end of the current situation is about 0.9 and a nation wide change has been made.
The question is really the graph implies a big change in values is required for the next change. The next change date is set as beginning of June. Realistically is that going to be achieved. If the change is a hell or high water one on the 1st of June, then this graph is just window dressing.
No. If it was a graph (it isn’t) then it does not show R decreasing at all once Step 1 occurs (this week?). It shows R staying less than one, and the result of that being fewer “something”… perhaps new infections… perhaps current cases… perhaps new deaths… who knows. Just burn the graphic… ignore it… it’s just deliberate misinformation with plausible deniability.
it’s just deliberate misinformation...
It is. You should at least be able to rely on the infographics giving a broad indication.
The govt. will continue to use the pandemic as a useful exercise (for Cumming's crew) in managing the public's actions. I think that Ferguson served their purpose as the go-to guy for a big scary number to promote lock-down, subsequently rather undermined when the model code was belatedly released, and further when it transpired that he felt it clear that the rules didn't apply to him.
In the absence of any apparent prospect of eradicating/vaccinating they now need to prevent social and economic meltdown by nudging people in the other direction.
When Peter Bone has you agreeing fervently…
https://twitter.com/channel4news/status/1260257779304017923?s=21
The promise of unlimited exercise seems to be limited to public spaces:
New sub clause (ba) "ba) to visit a public open space for the purposes of open-air recreation to promote their physical or mental health or emotional wellbeing— (i) alone, (ii) with one or more members of their household, or (iii) with one member of another household;”; "
Public open space defined as "5) For the purposes of paragraph (2)(ba), “public open space” includes
(a) land laid out as a public garden or used for the purpose of recreation by members of the public
(b) land which is “open country” as defined in section 59(2) of the National Parks and Access to the Countryside Act 1949(a), as read with section 16 of the Countryside Act 1968(b);
(c) land which is “access land” for the purposes of Part 1 of the Countryside and Rights of Way Act 2000(c) (see section 1(1) of that Act(d)). "
So any legal types guess at what's allowed?
I'd have thought many golf courses weren't public so they're still banned.
How about watersports? Rivers and canals are public spaces under section 16 of the Countryside Act 1968. Is the sea a public space? Lakes and ponds?
Angling was specifically cited but I'd have thought a vast amount of angling takes place on private land or the sea?
Outdoor sports courts are specifically mentioned elsewhere so they're allowed.
Anyone else suffering a bit of anxiety this week?
The revision of the figures & the attitude that some “It’s all over...” means I won’t be changing my habits any till I see something more positive - whatever that might be! I remain unconvinced by the Gov’s stance..
At most I’ll see my girlfriend & go for a walk with her......& go for my first decent ride out into the countryside since this whole thing began.......
Fortunately I work from home 99% of the time & my meetings can be done online. I count myself blessed.....
That graph is kind of misleading
Its easy red=dead, blue=will die soon.
Peter Bone challenging Kier Starmer for the grown up of the week award.
Some excellent words, most conscice summary of what the Dom n' Boris show are trying to do to democracy that I've yet heard.
Totally not loving the hate being put out by lakes no, peaks np and forest comission. Really shows how those lucky few view city dwellers and tourists. Weve a far bigger problem if social distancing in the countryside dosent work given the Gov't drive to get us back to work and yet these bodies would rather spread hate and encourage mob rule where locals feel vindicated in their message. How can we spread out and us all our open spaces if the priveledge few try to lock the majority out of their locality. Shameful.
Totally not loving the hate
Odd way of describing the response from the National Park bodies.
Well said nwilko. I agree wholeheartedly from my home in the country.
The degree of nimbyism, hate, and lack of understanding for those less privileged has been massively dissapointing. And sadly it has been incited subversively by the governments message. Divide and conquer. ****ing brexit style politics again.
What have the National Parks bodies said to get this response? They’re not land owners trying to keep folk of their land you know.
Using the word “hate” just seems odd.
Most of us 'lucky' enough to live in or near the National Parks also accept reduced infrastructure. Have a quick look at how many hospitals there are in Cumbria for example. You probably won't catch corona virus but you might just cause an outbreak in an area ill equipped to deal with it. But you're right we are a privileged few.
Having said that I'm sure you will be lobbying hard to support rural communities in the future...
Not much chance of causing an outbreak with everything closed. The coachloads of tourists won't be visiting the honeypots so what harm is there in allowing day trippers from the nearby cities if they want to walk in the hills and have a picnic?
privileged few
Really! Many of them may well be trying to protect themselves as they can't afford to be ill. Do you think they are all gentlemen farmers, retired or enjoying a leisurely time at their second home?
As AD has said, there is not the infrastructure there to support an outbreak, especially in the Highlands/islands.
We are all in this together. Our NHS is a shared resource. If one hospital is over capacity, resources will be redistributed to support that shortfall. Similarily, our natural resources must be shared for our collection mental well being. I hope that visitors from urban populations will stay away from rural villages and go to the forests, hills, and to the most remote beaches. And I would suggest that the risk of transmission outdoors is much lower than the impact of not being in full lockdown.
Why would any rural person begrudge those less privileged this freedom?
Be kind.
That Peter Bone clip ^^^ is quite something.
He has always been a committed and loyal tory who is also a stickler for parliamentary process.
PMQs tomorrow so another opportunity for Starmer to use the stiletto again and johnson to be further exposed.
I would be surprised if neither Starmer nor the Speaker referred to johnson's breach of parliamentary rules.
Add to that Piers Morgan shouting down any tory who appears on GMB and his repeated references to Hancock being a coward.
If the circumstances weren't so serious this would be LOL stuff.
Completely agree with the move of trying to restrict travel between areas. Have we all forgotten just before lockdown how rammed the natural parks were? Seeing a bit of green is very easy in the UK , no need to go to places with infrastructure that wouldn’t be able to handle a crisis.
That all sounds very lovely but have you any idea what redistributing resources would involve in remote areas?
This was more than a week before our lockdown - an age ago! Just think about that. They had time to digest, understand and make a satirical video that far before our government did anything...