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I’d like to second what Northwind says.
No one has been "instructed" to go to work.
Since lockdown, if you couldn't work from home, you could go to work if social distancing made it possible. Last night didn't change that.
Are those pics of today's underground any busier than last week, do we know?
Calling them idiots for trying to balance that vs the risk they take in doing so, while sat in your spare bedroom-cum-office space working on your company provided laptop
I'm a travelling Salesman looking at 50% of my income and a wife on redudancy this year to support a family of 4 because I can't travel for their sake, and others, so you and your high horse can **** off quite frankly.
This one person I can meet, does it mean just that one person or can I meet other one persons on different days?
No one has been “instructed” to go to work.
Thats not what todays document says
https://twitter.com/christophertape/status/1259850451304013826
This is London, is it not? A place where a significant portion of the 9 million population do not own a car, or a bike, and have up until now relied entirely on a busy public transport system.
If you live in central London, a car is an expensive liability. There's no parking, and where there is it costs an absolute fortune. That's why people generally don't own cars and everyone uses public transport instead.
Boris has just said they will be bringing in social distancing on the Tube.
Good luck with that!
Manchester is the same. When I work at agencies in town I get the tram or bus in. So does everybody else. Virtually nobody drives into the city centre in the morning as you'd have to be a masochist.
This one person I can meet, does it mean just that one person or can I meet other one persons on different days?
As many as you like. Line 'em up like speed dating and just move to the next one when Boris rings the bell.
No one has been “instructed” to go to work.
Thats not what todays document says
"If their workplace is open" and it won't/shouldn't be open unless the appropriate social distancing/PPE measures are in place.
“If their workplace is open” and it won’t/shouldn’t be open unless the appropriate social distancing/PPE measures are in place.
And assuming it is....but your only option to get to work is a crowded tube or your 9 year old is at home with no prospect of school before September? Will furlough cover that to save that person either being laid off or put on unpaid leave?
“If their workplace is open” and it won’t/shouldn’t be open unless the appropriate social distancing/PPE measures are in place.
Again… it’s all down to employers now. Good luck!
Might I suggest that there is a timetable in place that sees a return to “normality” by the end of June in order not to extend the furlough scheme?
Going to take differences along the Irish Border - with the UK having less tight controls and the onus being placed on the Irish side to manage the difference.
Well, Lord Sumption has shown his true colours on BBC PM.
Just another ‘Nanny State’, ‘common sense’, ‘self preservation’, ‘look after number one’ ranter, legal expertise or not.
Just read it in the 50 page document shared above.
Reference #3 is 404 - how many others? We have to manually check all hyperlinks in our documents.
Anyone hear Sunetra Gupta on Radio Scotland just now?. Professor of theoretical epidemiology at Oxford, seemed very sure that at least 40% off the UK, and potentially 60% have been exposed to CV.
I'd never heard that before, also adamant that herd immunity is essential to any move out of lockdown.
Not sure which thread this belongs on, changes to furlough scheme to be announced tomorrow I think there will be some kind of phased reduction in support
Future of furlough scheme to be announced tomorrow
https://f7td5.app.goo.gl/jjrarF
Sent via @updayUK
@kryton - sorry, I seem to have touched a nerve there and don't know why?
very sure that at least 40% off the UK, and potentially 60% have been exposed to CV
I’d never heard that before, also adamant that herd immunity is essential to any move out of lockdown.
There have been lots of people claiming that half or more of the population have been infected. And nothing to really back it up. Other countries are already out of ‘lockdown’, without ‘herd immunity’. I’d take their opinion with a huge pinch of salt… or not even bother checking them out, unless you have time to waste. See back in this thread for debunking of similar claims.
Anyone hear Sunetra Gupta on Radio Scotland just now?. Professor of theoretical epidemiology at Oxford, seemed very sure that at least 40% off the UK, and potentially 60% have been exposed to CV.
Just goes to show even professors of epidemiology can be clueless fools.
Nobeerinthefridge
MemberAnyone hear Sunetra Gupta on Radio Scotland just now?. Professor of theoretical epidemiology at Oxford, seemed very sure that at least 40% off the UK, and potentially 60% have been exposed to CV.
Exposed to, maybe. Exposed to doesn't mean a lot though.
Her team released a study towards the end of March that reckoned as much as 50% of the population had already been infected.
https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b
Doesn't make sense to me, but then IANAE, etc...
Her team released a study towards the end of March that reckoned as much as 50% of the population had already been infected.
An update on that:
Death rate in UK will not increase if lockdown lifted: Prof Gupta of Oxford
Hmm… she makes it clear what she wants to find, she is not claiming that it has been found… but the headline there, again, is just click bait based on the assumption that they will find what she wants them to find. She’s good at PR, I’ll give her that. A good headline generating machine.
Prof Gupta felt the virus was only very virulent in the small vulnerable fraction of the population.
Ahhh… feelings.
What was needed to inform the uncertainty about the true death rate and number of infections was wide ranging serological surveys.
Agreed.
It appears lockdown has now been lifted if you are a traveller/tinker as the local beach area @ Doon bay, kirkcudbright has had the gates removed and the beach toilets opened up by D&G council to allow them to stay.
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There have been lots of people claiming that half or more of the population have been infected.
I don’t think that’s true. Its happened but not “lots”. Are you conflating someone posting a link to such a claim to them actually claiming it? I can only really remember one or two claiming such a thing outright.
People discussing the possibility may have happened more frequently but that’s not really the same thing.
Nor do I think half the UK population has had it. Strikes me as dangerous bllx.
Scotlands ex-CMO claimed about 6 weeks ago {28th March) that 65,000 of Scots had already been infected. Given the R number was higher then, and the doubling rate, that would put it at around 50% by now.
Strikes me as dangerous bllx.
In case I wasn’t clear, I agree.
You’ll soon see how people want to cling to it though, despite there being no basis for it.
So I strongly agree with this line, to put that genie back in the bottle ASAP…
What was needed to inform the uncertainty about the true death rate and number of infections was wide ranging serological surveys.
Looks like all the lunatic conspiracy theories about C19 are being conflated into one, the ‘Palndemic’! Honestly, my faith in humanity has been pretty low for some considerable time, but it’s pretty much reaching its nadir now...
https://www.gq.com/story/plandemic-anti-vaxxer-conspiracy-theory
If only there was a way to find out if we've had it..
Back to work on Monday, we're still not sure how it's all going to work on a tower block with one hoist, no toilets or washing facilities within the buildings perimeter (all the facilities, canteen etc.. are in the block over the road)
Ahhh… feelings.
The preceding para says this:
“ Imperial College assumed the epidemic had only just started as only a few deaths had occurred, and they used a high death rate of 1-2-3%. It is thought they used the data from the yacht Diamond Princess and Chinese studies. This model showed the peak was yet to come. Prof Gupta’s team showed that it was equally plausible that the epidemic had already peaked sometime in mid-March and a number of people had recovered, and deaths were happening with a time-lag of 2-3 weeks from infection; this model showed only 1 in 10,000 deaths and suggested a healthy percentage of herd immunity.”
Selective quoting is pointless when someone can go back & read the article for themselves. She did say she “felt” but put in context of what she believes she’s found.
The last line say this:
“ Prof Gupta’s updated research will be published in the next few weeks.”
So, let’s not lynch her till then yeah....
but the headline there, again, is just click bait based on the assumption that they will find what she wants them to find. She’s good at PR, I’ll give her that. A good headline generating machine.
Some truth in that..
So, let’s not lynch her till then yeah….
My concern isn’t really whether she is right or wrong, but with the consequences of her being wrong and people taking it as a license to change behaviour.
Top experts not asked to approve 'stay alert' coronavirus message
and...
https://twitter.com/ReicherStephen/status/1259517598833795072
I’ve not seen any serology that suggests that level of prevalence. Maybe they now have some data from the oxford ELISA. But out odds at odds with available data from elsewhere. I can’t see past 10-20% and nowhere near herd immunity. So that implies relaxing distancing turns the transmission know back up.
These are the most interesting serological test results I've seen. They're for a cluster centred on a school in l'Oise which is a badly affected part of France:
L'étude révèle que parmi les 661 participants (320 élèves, enseignants et personnels administratifs du lycée et 341 membres des familles de ces lycéens), seuls 171 (25,9 %) ont été infectés par le SARS-CoV-2 et possèdent des anticorps contre ce virus. Cette moyenne diffère selon le type de participants : 41 % des personnes ayant fréquenté le lycée sont infectées (lycéens, enseignants, personnel non enseignant), alors que parmi leurs proches le "taux d’attaque" est de 11 %. Aucun décès n’a été observé dans la population du lycée et 5,3 % des personnes infectées ont été hospitalisées.
So if a known cluster with 26% proven contamination resulted in 5.3% of the infected being hospitalized I find the Oxford study hard to believe. If half the UK poulation had been infected you'd you'd expect 5% of 50% so 2.5% of the populaiton to have ended up in hospital. Bearing in mind that there were very few old people in that l'Oise study so there were no doubt less hopitalisations than you'd get in the population as a whole.
Edit/ The fact 40% of the Lycée serological tests were positive and well over half of the aircraft carrier sailors' live virus tests were psoitive says that the idea that many people are exposed but neither have symptoms nor test positive for the live virus test nor have a serological test is false. There aren't a mass of people who have been exposed and fought off the virus without either symptoms or developing antibodies.
Just goes to show even professors of epidemiology can be clueless fools.
Aye.
Never blindly equate people with academic qualifications/titles with logic or intelligence. As an example a huge percentage of the Government/Cabinet have these and to put it politely it was an education wasted.
“ Prof Gupta’s updated research will be published in the next few weeks.”
So, let’s not lynch her till then yeah….
I would infer from that statement she has an idea that her figures still back up her initial model. Otherwise she would have kept a lower profile.
Watching Hospital on BBC2
As always an insight, this one is particularly scary
Saw an amusing quip shared on social media, can't remember who from, I'm paraphrasing but.. "stay alert, save lives" is the new "gamble responsibly"
These are the most interesting serological test results I’ve seen.
Why are those results more interesting than other serological results?
Is it just me who thinks countrywide movement being permitted isn't a small change. At the moment we seem to have a healthy level of mixing as a result of the VE Day weekend. One might thing the best plan would be to restrict travel to local areas for 2-3 weeks until the impact of VE Day passes. It's going to be shaken up enough by bringing people back into close contact on transport and in the workplace. Two big shake ups before we even get to moving across the country. Seems to be a nice little transmission accumulator building.
I'm also a bit surprised there hasn't been a real push on wash your hands to accompany it. No word on readiness of track, trace and isolate. No strong biosecurity message to accompany big changes in movement. Feels more like everything is being re-set to early March.
Because I found them more interesting, you might not. 🙂
Because until the randomised resutls from on-going tests come out the sample group is the most representative of the public that interests me because Madame is a teacher and it is representative that what could happen to us. I'm not so interested in the serological results from care homes or villages made up mainly of old people.
My offering on the Oxford Prof evidence front basically highlights the open up encourages spread concerns.
I would infer from that statement she has an idea that her figures still back up her initial model. Otherwise she would have kept a lower profile.
theres as much hubris in accademia as anywhere else
but be very interesting to see the data & the accuracy of her test (i think the Roche serological claims 99.8% accuracy)
is there any definitive proof that it confers immunity & how long that might lasts for yet?
would certainly be good to know what the actual infection numbers and on a personal level, love to know if ive had it (asymptomatically)
Led by Donkeys:
The appeasement timeline worth a look not so much for the sentiment just as an annotated summary.
Right, groundhog day again.
Watching The BBC news and they've just shown an animated graphic of how a cough can spread in a supermarket and suggested that wearing a face covering MIGHT be the answer.
It is the answer, it was the answer and it always will be the answer to people coughing up clouds of the virus in confined public spaces.
Like in France, the government needs to be busy manufacturing 15 million disposable, washable face masks a week and distributing them through chemists to try and help limit the spread of the virus as we begin to open up again.
If the government wants to get the economy moving again it needs to build public confidence. Making face covering mandatory in shops and on public transport would help build that confidence.
I see a few fights breaking out on the tube and in shops where some people follow the government 'recomendations' and others don't.
Otherwise she would have kept a lower profile.
Why? She hasn’t before. She has a theory, and hopes to find evidence to back it up. She has none. All available evidence suggests she is wrong. People want her to be right, which makes her great for generating click bait headlines. Ignore her ‘till she has something.
Because I found them more interesting
Fair enough. I think there is so much information being gathered at the moment, so many unknowns, and the situation is so fast moving that everything is of interest.
I see a few fights breaking out on the tube and in shops where some people follow the government ‘recomendations’ and others don’t.
Do you mean you have actually seen, or you foresee?
inkster - I didn't see the news but was it this graphic from a month ago?
https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/09/animation-shows-single-cough-spread-coronavirus-across-shop-12530656/
Agree the gov *should* have ordered facemasks for distribution to the public; they haven't and won't.
Cost would be miniscule in the context of overall covid spending; would send a message and might encourage the public to continue wearing one into the future - nudge theory in practice.
So, on Monday....gov publication suggests public should wear facemask when shopping or travelling with strangers on public transport; encouraging people back to work from Wednesday; doesn't allow much time to get hold of facemask. Fine if you have sewing m/c and can knock up a few.
Screwfix list 8 pages of facemasks/respirators on their website but none available for click'n'collect.
Just another example of how johnson and his shabby acolytes are utterly useless.
oldagedpredator
SubscriberIs it just me who thinks countrywide movement being permitted isn’t a small change.
No, it's definitely not a small change. It's a smaller change than "go back to work" and the proposals for reopening schools which is why it's got less attention but in a less mad week it'd be a big deal.
Agree the gov *should* have ordered facemasks for distribution to the public; they haven’t and won’t.
Cost would be miniscule in the context of overall covid spending; would send a message and might encourage the public to continue wearing one into the future – nudge theory in practice.
So, on Monday….gov publication suggests public should wear facemask when shopping or travelling with strangers on public transport; encouraging people back to work from Wednesday; doesn’t allow much time to get hold of facemask. Fine if you have sewing m/c and can knock up a few.
ScotGov recommend a "face covering" when in shops, on public transport etc. This could be a buff or a scarf.
Couldn't sleep so just spent a good hour reading the analysis of Boris's clarification of yesterday's non-speech.
As far as I can make out there are so many loopholes and counter-instructions in the new guidelines that anyone can pretty much make it say what they want it to say. What he has said he wants it to say and what it actually says are two totally different things entirely.
So basically my first thoughts on it were pretty much correct: he's cocked it up so badly that the only way to get back in control of it is to go back to lockdown but with more stringent rules like France and Spain had. This will not be popular with the public so he won't do that. That leaves us with a really disruptive cycle of peak/trough/peak/trough of infections as we try and keep the load on the NHS to manageable levels. Of course this will be focussed around the loading according to London levels, the provinces will be left to fend for themselves.
We are in for a long, bumpy ride where what is happening in London, Wales, Scotland and the various bits of England are going to require different approaches at different times. This means a single, easy to understand message is going to be nigh on impossible for the foreseeable future and will risk alienating the public who, on the whole, have been well behaved up to now.
Boris and his team have misjudged this so badly that their previous mistakes have pushed them so far down the current route that they won't admit to any failings and actually do what's needed. The failure to ramp up testing early, cooperate with other countries over PPE, the dithering over the lockdown and to try and go their own way on the app they have pinned so much hope on is still waiting to bite us hard. While no-one has been able to know for certain what direction to take in other countries at least they have made decisive choices. Our route of dithering and delay will cost us in the long term, costs we may not see for upwards of a generation.
We are living and breathing the history our kids and grandkids will be learning in the future.
Long way to go yet.
Today’s FT
Estimates of infection rates vary widely but, according to research by the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI) based on figures from European governments, Belgium has the highest percentage of citizens with some degree of potential immunity in Europe: 6.4 per cent of the population has contracted Covid-19. In Italy, the figure is 4.4 per cent, in the UK it is 3.8 per cent and only 0.7 per cent of the population has had the disease in Germany.
In Sweden, where the state epidemiologist estimated 40 per cent of the population would be immune by the end of May, only 2.5 per cent of the population has come into contact with the virus, according to ISPI.
So London is ahead of the rest of the UK in terms of "the peak", which means parts of England could have R at or above 1. It seems the English R is skewed by London. So releasing people from Manchester who might well flood to the lakes without could be mightily dangerous.
reluctant jumper
We are living and breathing the history our kids and grandkids will be learning in the future.
INSERT: ..and dying...
No, it’s definitely not a small change. It’s a smaller change than “go back to work” and the proposals for reopening schools
These changes are still broadly speaking geographically contained.
Ryan Air's Michael O'Leary feeling bullish this morning on flights coming back in July. No distancing on planes. Putting it out there the 2 week quarantine would be un enforceable and most people would break it.
Like in France, the government needs to be busy manufacturing 15 million disposable, washable face masks a week and distributing them through chemists to try and help limit the spread of the virus as we begin to open up again.
If the government wants to get the economy moving again it needs to build public confidence. Making face covering mandatory in shops and on public transport would help build that confidence.
If people make their own masks that chimes with the plucky little Britain we can do it narrative. Remember 2020 when we fought the virus...
According to the newspapers this morning, we just have to use good old-fashioned, British common sense.
Which means we're absolutely screwed...
Hancock on R4 now.
If you ever want to hear what a pointless political career unravelling in a few minutes sounds like, I would recommend a listen.
Nice but dim. You can sense Raab in the wings sharpening his dagger.
Hancock is still of use to them though, taking his daily trouncing so Joris doesn't have to.
If the government wants to get the economy moving again it needs to build public confidence. Making face covering mandatory in shops and on public transport would help build that confidence.
There's a fairly major security issue arising from widespread use of masks. It's not been publicly acknowledged but culturally in the UK, we don't really do well with face coverings (look at portrayal of women wearing burkhas as an example).
You replace one rather intangible threat (catching an invisible virus while sitting on a bus) with a much more tangible threat, the fear of violence/crime while sitting on a bus surrounded by masked individuals. That's not building public confidence at all.
I see we are back to conspiracy theories, scare mongering and selective quoting overnight, none of which helps anybody. Posting opinion of a mass death rate amongst our children does not help people. Also:
Fine if you have sewing m/c and can knock up a few.
Screwfix list 8 pages of facemasks/respirators on their website but none available for click’n’collect.
Just another example of how johnson and his shabby acolytes are utterly useless.
I’m not going to defend the government but you missed off the fact that several sets of instructions regarding how to make a face mask from commonly available materials not all of which need a sewing machine Have been made available, and the fact that proper masks are still a priority for key workers so likely Screwfix will have sold out quickly and can’t get resupply.
Seriously, stop the scare mongering and conjecture and stick to the facts for the sake of everyone’s mental well being, please.
So releasing people from Manchester who might well flood to the lakes without could be mightily dangerous.
Ignoring what people might get up to while they're there, and who or what they might visit, people descending on outdoor areas, especially remotes ones, must be one of the lowest risk activities there is.
I'll condemn the government response as much as anyone else but I'm struggling to understand emphasis on this subject in particular.
Sending people back to work is a far bigger risk.
Opening cafes and bars will be a gigantic step (can you imagine letting drunk people out again?)
Even in crowded spaces, the chance of infection outdoors is minimal.
Nice but dim. You can sense Raab in the wings sharpening his dagger.
You should've heard Raab being dismantled on Radio Scotland yesterday. Was like a drunk child caught in headlights.
Even in crowded spaces, the chance of infection outdoors is minimal.
I think this has been overlooked. Cafes, bars and b&bs are not open so people are within the vastness of the countryside, not even confined to the confines of a city park, so surely more dispersed? Yes, they can take the infection elsewhere but the risk - especially with social distancing being observed - is quite low. I imagine the car parks are the biggest issue.,,
Opening cafes and bars will be a gigantic step (can you imagine letting drunk people out again?)
This.
All the chat I've heard about social distancing and spreading out tables in restaurants and bars will be utterly pointless when pubs are open and folk get a few drinks in them.
Posting opinion of a mass death rate amongst our children
Missed this bit, all I can find is a very low incidence (2/10M or across the population so far according to ONS), but with 2 kids in that age group I like to be informed so I can inform them properly and alleviate their fears.
I imagine the car parks are the biggest issue.,,
It's any pinch point where you get more people. A bit about it in the BMC Covid-19 Recovery Plan. The link to the guidance is within the web page
The British Mounteering Council's Covid Recovery Plan for getting back to the countryside. I imagine many other organisations have submitted similar documents to DEFRA over the past few weeks. The government's announcement still caught organisations like Cumbria Tourism out.
The question is it fair to assume the government has gone further faster than the organisations were recommending?
I thought this posted in the other thread brought a little optimism, on the basis that despite the buffoonery we are performing a lot of the measures / hopefully can stick to <R...
I imagine the car parks are the biggest issue.,,
Even then, I imagine the risks of people congregating in car parks are actually quite tiny.
You have to look at how the virus might spread, and that is more likely to happen on the way there when you go fill up with petrol, or pop into the shop for your picnic, or when you go to the toilet, or perhaps even at the Pay and Display machine.
way fewer cars in these places than in supermarket car parks surely. And when we've had to make a supermarket run, I don't touch other people's cars, and on the one occasion someone was in a car next to us I allowed them to get out and move away before getting out myself. I guess in theory I was breathing the same air as them though, but the chances of them having it x the chances of it being in that airspace from normal breath x the chance of it getting past my natural defences x the chance of that being a effective viral load = miniscule
Even then, I imagine the risks of people congregating in car parks are actually quite tiny.
Especially when the likes of the National Trust & Peak District authority still haven't confirmed if/when they'll be reopening the car parks.
way fewer cars in these places than in supermarket car parks surely.
It's the points where multiple people interact with the same thing - as above - toilets, ticket machines, even first gate. For the touchy bits there's hand washing. Thinking about it for the toilet it would be face masks. The solution is basically a lot of hand cleaning.
The Guardian were running a story lady night that the scientific advisors had not been involved/signed off the new guidance or some such?
I can't find any other source to corroborate that - anyone heard more?
They were both asked this on the presser yesterday. The response was “we fully stand behind the concept of what is being done. Slogans/campaigns are a political issue.”
Kryton - yes I saw that yesterday and really liked it. Hopefully one of our resident scientists can tell us if it is a sensible “Basic Pandemic 101”
Wuhan draws up plans to test all 11 million residents.
In 10 days....
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-52629213
Chris Whitty basically said they don't get involved in comms. In other words, what the government tells the public isn't their expertise and doesn't involve them.
Neither of them really confirmed or denied it strictly speaking.
Kryton – yes I saw that yesterday and really liked it. Hopefully one of our resident scientists can tell us if it is a sensible “Basic Pandemic 101”
Indeed, one of the things it did for me that despite all the whataboutery which in the media is mostly negative, it does show that the global activity toward reduction is largely positive.