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Not much evidence of outdoors transmission
Evidence found where contact tracing works. The fact that most identified transmissions occurred in the home doesn’t mean we should all avoid being at home. That outdoor transmissions are hard to identify via contact tracing could mean that transmission is very rare, or it could mean that the contact tracing methods used for the studies were poor at identifying them. Home transmission shouldn’t lead to the virus spreading (if the home is isolated and the cases are not serious enough to result in medical care), where as outdoor transmission, even if rare, could result in new home, communities, areas being infected.
If only there were hundreds of other countries we could look to for ideas about containing and starving the virus of carriers.
But there really aren't. All those with fewer deaths than us will have to relax their lockdowns, and their numbers will climb again. Nothing has been done anywhere that changes the basic arithmetic of 60 to 80% will get it and 1% of those will die. All any country has changed is the time that will take. And unless the world abandons capitalism altogether, the more the pandemic is prolonged, the greater the economic damage and the greater the human cost of that.
@stevextc absolutely agree that honesty and treating us as if we were grown ups would be massively preferable. I don't think this lot even understand those concepts though.
Can someone point me to the bit which says we all must get in our cars and travel to work today, as some seem to believe the new rules are?
Anyone out there like to report back on what traffic is actually like this morning?
Can someone point me to the bit which says we all must get in our cars and travel to work today, as some seem to believe the new rules are?
He didn't say Must. He said get to work where possible, avoiding the use of public transport if you can using alternatives such as driving, cycling or walking.
Evidence found where contact tracing works.
refs?
I’d like to ask them what other options they think we have?
We flattened the curve at around 30k deaths, similar counties did it with under 10k deaths, if we keep this up for each of say 3 waves how many extra would we have, is that good? The countries who manage it better can also relax sooner as the up is much faster than the down!
But there really aren’t.
Sorry onewheelgood, you are wrong. And looking back on a year of data on deaths at the end of 2020 that’ll become obvious, even if for now you want to ignore the evidence already available to us.
But there really aren’t. All those with fewer deaths than us will have to relax their lockdowns, and their numbers will climb again. Nothing has been done anywhere that changes the basic arithmetic of 60 to 80% will get it and 1% of those will die. All any country has changed is the time that will take. And unless the world abandons capitalism altogether, the more the pandemic is prolonged, the greater the economic damage and the greater the human cost of that.
@stevextc absolutely agree that honesty and treating us as if we were grown ups would be massively preferable. I don’t think this lot even understand those concepts though.
Indeed. Perpetual lockdown will only end in more long term economic damage (& the associated collateral that will inevitably follow in terms of lost lives) than has already been inflicted.
Nobody has a clear idea of a way out of this & it’s going to be a very, very, very painful case of trial & error till we get it right.
Hang on tight kids, it’s going to get bumpy..
So I could go to park to see my daughter (from 2 meters) yet my wife (with whom I live) would have to stay away. Presumably she could stand outside the park until I leave, and then go in and have a chat with daughter. How the **** does that make any sense whatsoever?.
Because by adding a third and then a fourth person etc looks like a group. People are generally sheep, so if its OK for you to form a group its OK for them and the rest is obvious....
Can someone point me to the bit which says we all must get in our cars and travel to work today, as some seem to believe the new rules are?
He didn’t say Must. He said get to work where possible, avoiding the use of public transport if you can using alternatives such as driving, cycling or walking.
This was the thing that riled me most when I watched it live, all the chatter about improving active transport and what did BoZo say? "The best thing you can do is get in your car"
But there really aren’t. All those with fewer deaths than us will have to relax their lockdowns, and their numbers will climb again.
They can relax lockdown sooner and the numbers will climb slower and so the next lock down will be later and overall less damage will be done to the economy and less deaths will occur.
I wouldn't normally watch Morgan, but as it was that arch <insert vilest swearword of your choice here> Bridgen, I made an exception.
I struggled to get fully aroused if I'm honest.
It was just one oaf shouting at another. Bridgen didn't rise to the bait (Cummings picks his lightning rods cleverly) and it left me feeling a bit flat. Bridgen will collect his peerage at the end which is all the lazy turd is interested in.
The thing that worries me most is that this is actually the type of thing that a lot of the public thrive on.
Sorry onewheelgood, you are wrong.
It's ok, you don't have to apologise. It would be nice if you could show your working though.
Indeed. Perpetual lockdown will only end in more long term economic damage (& the associated collateral that will inevitably follow in terms of lost lives) than has already been inflicted.
Nobody has a clear idea of a way out of this & it’s going to be a very, very, very painful case of trial & error till we get it right.
Hang on tight kids, it’s going to get bumpy..
I fear that this is the harsh reality we are going to have to face up to.
Even if - and it's an if, not a when - we get a vaccine, it could be years away. It may be the case that all countries will have to find a way to hit that awful 1% of 60% death rate. But perpetual lockdown and the resulting economic destruction could maybe kill more than the virus in the next 5 years, with long term poverty, mental illness, domestic violence, wider crime, other untreated conditions.
Obviously, other governments may well handle the process better than our current one, but moaning on an internet echo chamber won't solve that particular issue in any meaningful timescale.
As I understand it, the plan is to continue to prevent the NHS being swamped, but to relax lockdown as much as possible while doing that
About right, yes. Unless the virus can be eradicated by eventual contact tracing, then it will head to endemicity, the rate with which it does so will be determined by mixing and to a lesser extent those who may become immune and/or vaccinated. Treatments and passive vaccination can mitigate morbidity and mortality to some extent.
This is a nice analysis of lockdown for the mathematically inclined
that awful 1% of 60% death rate
Management of symptoms and eventual treatment will bring this down, but it won't eradicate it. We're buying time to (hopefully) get to perhaps 0.1%. The most obvious example of this is HIV, where treatments have increased life expectancy by over 40 years.
We’re buying time
Some countries are buying more time than others.
moaning on an internet echo chamber won’t solve that particular issue
You can apply that to any point made in this thread… but why would you?
We’re buying time
Some countries are buying more time than others.
And at a much lower cost.
You can apply that to any point made in this thread… but why would you?
I'm well aware that I've done plenty of pointless moaning on here about various aspects of the disastrous handling of the situation.😄
Some people might enjoy being slammed by Phillip Scholfield 😀
This has all dropped into a cost benefit analysis- from a Tory (Steve Baker, Mogg, Mark Fatcois) perspective it has no where else to go.
From a socialist perspective we could sacrife the medium term economy to try and re engineer how we work, educate and socialise but that wrecks the free market economy and the pure dogma that drives Brexiteer folk. Boris is frankly shitting him self that they "kill" too many Tory voters, i have discussed on here that the Tory party is literally dying out mathematically and Covid drives that even faster - 4 years at an average of 250 deaths a day in the Tory "bracket" is 350 thousand.... or you could look at as a 3 billion saving per annum on pensions and god knows what in social and NHS costs.
Younger population = socialist government
Boris is frankly shitting him self that they “kill” too many Tory
voters
He needs to be worried about killing off the members - as I said - The East Sussex Conundrum.
In the Black Mirror universe - Cummings likes to cover his bases; vigorous membership reprofiling might be part of the plan.
Working along the border in Monmouthshire today and it's starkly obvious that the two countries have different rules.
The Welsh side is quiet with just the now normal queue outside the shops and a few people mulling around.
The English side has much more people driving around, walking in groups and acting like it's all over.
The contrast is shocking. Shall we start a sweepstake on when the R number gets high enough for lockdown no 2?
So how do we reckon that 50 page technical document is coming along?
that it wasnt released when Johnson sent out the speech is a worry, some poor civil servants been on an all nighter trying spin this up to 50 pages, large font, double line spacing, diagrams full page, knowing Starmer is going to pull it apart line by line
My bet based on nothing more than a gut feeling is that the lockdown gets tighter in 3 weeks.
knowing Starmer is going to pull it apart line by line
That’s why the opposition aren’t being given it in advance of publication and the token bit of parliamentary time given over to it.
Oh, and journalists are not being allowed to ask questions about it later today (just questions ‘from the public’).
As for any select committees getting involved… Cummings will be chuckling about such ‘checks and balances’ from wherever he’s holed up right now.
Document will, apparently, be released at 2pm.
Don't know if opposition parties will receive advance copies prior to that.
All y'all getting pretty het up about this over last couple of days.
While it's important, you can only do your own bit really and getting so red in the face is bad for your soul.
Time to take a walk!
Jesus Christ, watch the Vid...
A staggering amount of stupidity.
A staggering amount of stupidity.
And folk are getting upset about someone driving a few miles to walk a dog in relative solitude...
A staggering amount of stupidity.
So if you were expected to go to work in the centre of London and like a great proportion of Londoners you didn't own a car (or tbh even if you did) - how would you be getting there?
how would you be getting there?
Is this a trick question? Bike.
Is this a trick question? Bike.
You think every Londoner is equipped with a bike and somewhere to store it and has a commute that is within their fitness capabilities at the start of lockdown?
A staggering amount of stupidity.
Nah, not really. I’m not surprised one bit - the ability of the British Public to act like fing idiots stopped surprising me years ago..
There seem to be a few people on here upset about what they are calling “herd immunity by stealth”, but which is really implementing exactly what was promised, i.e. “flattening the curve”.
I’d like to ask them what other options they think we have?
What would have been so bad about maintaining the "level 4" measures for another couple of weeks? I don't see the need to rush. Why is the government putting the guidance out after their announcement has been acted on by potentially millions.
Last night's speech should have been an announcement of changes to be implemented at least a week after.
Throughout this there has been a staggered effect. So We'll know the effects of last night's speech, for good or ill, in about 2-3 weeks around the time Boris reckons we'll be sending kids back to school...
Yes there are negative economic effects of lockdown, but the ecconomic effects of a second spike and lockdown will be just as bad (arguably worse) and more importantly it would cost more lives.
Fundamentally our government has put resuming economic activity ahead of public health. So yeah "herd immunity" might be the unspoken goal, but let's be clear, that will entail more preventable deaths...
Fundamentally our government has put resuming economic activity ahead of public health.
Economic activity is intrinsically linked to public health. Worse economy = more poverty = mental health, illness, life expectancy, DV, etc.
You cannot uncouple the two. It's an equation with no good solutions, only shit ones and slightly less shit ones.
What would have been so bad about maintaining the “level 4” measures for another couple of weeks? I don’t see the need to rush. Why is the government putting the guidance out after their announcement has been acted on by potentially millions.
Might I suggest that there is a timetable in place that sees a return to "normality" by the end of June in order not to extend the furlough scheme?
Economic activity is intrinsically linked to public health.
Go and read about diamond mines.
Economic activity is intrinsically linked to public health
Does it have to be?
You think every Londoner is equipped with a bike and somewhere to store it and has a commute that is within their fitness capabilities at the start of lockdown?
To be fair, your question was: 'how would you be getting there?'
I told you.
I didn't say it was within everyone's capabilities. As it happens, my best mate who lives down there is wrestling with this very issue. He has a heart defect, so although he rides bikes, he can't manage a daily commute on one. He has an e-bike, to get over the one big hill on his route in, but the rest is flat and hard work.
He's probably going to get back on a small motorbike.
And fwiw, I agree, the whole situation is a cluster.
What would have been so bad about maintaining the “level 4” measures for another couple of weeks?
Then what?
You have the same issue, but 2 weeks later. It wouldn't change anything.
Economic activity is intrinsically linked to public health
Does it have to be?
No economic activity = no public health.
No public health services, no social services, take it to the nth degree then no utilities like clean water and sewerage systems, no law and order....
Yes I'm deliberately being extreme, but everything we need as a society is provided by someone employing someone else to do work, get paid and create tax revenue. As theotherjonv said, it's only a question of how shit the outcome is we can live with.
Go and read about diamond mines.
OK, there can be exceptions but you get the point.
Does it have to be?
Within the limitations of the world we are in, yes. There may be a widespread rejection of capitalism as a concept and we'll all move to a different model as result but right now, restarting the economy is a necessity. Sure there are different levers to restarting (gov investment in infrastructure was a means of kickstarting economies after the 1920's depressions iirc) but in the end it needs people to be doing things, earning, and paying tax that gets funneled back into doing more things. Whether it's the state or private companies that benefit most as a result is a political question, you still need the economy to be functional.
You have the same issue, but 2 weeks later. It wouldn’t change anything.
You’d have far fewer cases. Which means fewer deaths. And more chance (assuming track/trace/isolate was up and running) of isolating new cases and preventing a reemergence of the virus.
Keeping the current measures, while waiting for the numbers of ongoing cases to be much lower, and get a track/trace/isolate programme in full swing… then you can get people back to work and school while keeping a handle on what is going on, and having a good chance of bearing down on this virus, rather than just excepting a high level of infection and deaths that hundreds of other countries are managing to avoid.
He’s probably going to get back on a small motorbike.
Between a rock and a hard place ☹️
No economic activity = no public health.
No public health services, no social services, take it to the nth degree then no utilities like clean water and sewerage systems, no law and order….
Yes I’m deliberately being extreme, but everything we need as a society is provided by someone employing someone else to do work, get paid and create tax revenue. As theotherjonv said, it’s only a question of how shit the outcome is we can live with.
And, timed perfectly (from the gov document):
Unemployment is rising from a 40-year low at the start of the year; around 1.8 million households made claims for Universal Credit between 16 March and 28 April. The OBR has published a
‘reference’ scenario which suggests that, if the current measures stay in place until June and are
then eased over the next three months, unemployment would rise by more than 2 million in the
second quarter of 2020.
The OBR’s scenario suggests that GDP could fall by 35% in the second quarter of this year – and the annual contraction could be the largest in over 300 years. Workers in those sectors most affected, including hospitality and retail, are more likely to be low paid, younger and female. Younger households are also likely to be disproportionately hit in the longer term, as evidence suggests that, following recessions, lost future earnings potential is greater for young people. The longer the virus affects the economy, the greater the risks of long-term scarring and permanently lower economic activity, with business failures, persistently higher unemployment and lower earnings. This would damage the sustainability of the public finances and the ability to fund public services including the NHS. It would also likely lead to worse long-run physical and mental health outcomes, with a significant increase in the prevalence of chronic illness.
Thanks to @Jam+bo -
A staggering amount of stupidity.
All I see is people boarding trains.
People who are probably fearful of losing their livelihoods and possibly even their homes.
They have been instructed to return to work, yet given no reasonable alternative to get there, what else are they to do?
This is nothing like people venturing out to national parks or beaches, it's just people trying to survive.
So no limit on driving to exercise and you can exercise with one person not in your household.
You’d have far fewer cases. Which means fewer deaths. And more chance (assuming track/trace/isolate was up and running) of isolating new cases and preventing a reemergence of the virus.
This!!!
No economic activity = no public health.
No public health services, no social services, take it to the nth degree then no utilities like clean water and sewerage systems, no law and order….
Yes I’m deliberately being extreme, but everything we need as a society is provided by someone employing someone else to do work, get paid and create tax revenue.
Only if capitalism is the the only answer, lets be clear if deaths remain high and a vaccine is not sorted quick smart this could result in a few problems for the capitalists!
you can exercise with one person not in your household.
Eh? What have I missed?
What we're witnessing here is the greatest failure of governance in modern history.
It seems that absolutely nobody, including government ministers, has got a *ing scooby what is meant to be going on. They've been asking a series of experts on Five Live all day about what is and isn't now allowed. The answer to every single question has been the same...
"We have no detail about any of this. The government has said more information will be forthcoming at a later date."
They're literally writing government policy on the hoof, on the back of a fag packet. Just winging it!
Johnson is meant to be on his feet in parliament shortly? Will he actually turn up? Or send one of his human shields out again? After all, he's already done his ten minutes for this week.
What a total *ing shambles!
you can exercise with one person not in your household
Interesting. What’s the actual wording in the advice, and what has changed since the PM said otherwise just 19 hours earlier?
The big noise from today’s document is all about face coverings. I fully expect the focus in the media to be on that now, not on other means to help a return to workplaces.
you can exercise with one person not in your household
I thought you could meet one person outside, but stay 2m away not that I could go for a ride with someone?
So the 50 page document contradicts what Raab said this morning about visiting both parents at once?
And wtf are face masks now recommended but weren't before, buses have been running all this time! ****ing clowns complete ****ing clowns.
I thought you could meet one person outside, but stay 2m away not that I could go for a ride with someone?
Just read it in the 50 page document shared above.
People may exercise outside as many times each day as they wish. For example, this would
include angling and tennis. You will still not be able to use areas like playgrounds, outdoor gyms or
ticketed outdoor leisure venues, where there is a higher risk of close contact and touching
surfaces. You can only exercise with up to one person from outside your household – this means
you should not play team sports, except with members of your own household.
People may drive to outdoor open spaces irrespective of distance, so long as they respect
social distancing guidance while they are there, because this does not involve contact with people
outside your household.
Within the limitations of the world we are in, yes. There may be a widespread rejection of capitalism as a concept and we’ll all move to a different model as result but right now, restarting the economy is a necessity. Sure there are different levers to restarting (gov investment in infrastructure was a means of kickstarting economies after the 1920’s depressions iirc) but in the end it needs people to be doing things, earning, and paying tax that gets funneled back into doing more things. Whether it’s the state or private companies that benefit most as a result is a political question, you still need the economy to be functional.
More than a few on here would love to see capitalism dead, so I think you're wasting your breath in the echo chamber that this thread is becoming.
I looked for it myself… p27…
“You can only exercise with up to one person from outside your household”…
So there you go, riding in pairs is on… good luck people… see you in a few weeks when the data comes in…
you still need the economy to be functional.
There's another thread for this, but in orde for economies to be functional, you need a workforce that isn't terrified of going to work and randomly going off sick for long periods or possibly dying as a result. Repeated waves of infection and death is going to result in the collapse of normal economic activity. What are they going to do, march people to work at gunpoint?
“You can only exercise with up to one person from outside your household”…
Is that at a time or for the foreseeable?
Christ what a shit show.
All I see is people boarding trains.
When they were told to avoid public transport if possible, to social distance, and that measures would be in place on public transport to facilitate that. See any of that going on? It doesn't take any kind of genius to approach that train platform and consider the environment you are exposing yourself to.
have been instructed to return to work, yet given no reasonable alternative to get there, what else are they to do?
Cycle, walk, work from home and worst case scenario go by car? Sounds like lots of alternatives to me.
This is nothing like people venturing out to national parks or beaches, it’s just people trying to survive.
Thats right its far worse, its people shoulder to shoulder in a small enclosed environment with multiple surfaces being used in the same way by many other people repeatedly risking the spread of a deadly virus.
Is that at a time or for the foreseeable?
I’m going to take it to mean for the foreseeable, but you are right, it could mean per a day, or per an exercise session, or just at any particular moment. We could do relays… and ride with loads of people on one ride, but only ever two together at once, and still be following the letter of that guidance. Might have been wise to put the doc through some form of scrutiny…
A choice quote from the document… p44…
“…we have spearheaded global action to counter the pandemic…”
I’m sure when I pointed out there was no “How” in any of this last night, I was shouted down that it wasn’t the governments place, businesses would sort it and people are sensible.
“You can only exercise with up to one person from outside your household”…
I'm reading that in conjunction with the earlier paragraph:
"people can now also spend time outdoors subject to: not meeting up with any more than one person from outside your household; continued compliance with social distancing guidelines to remain two metres (6ft) away from people outside your household".
So non-contact sports only? It's probably in there so the golf clubs can re-open.
onewheelgood
SubscriberThere seem to be a few people on here upset about what they are calling “herd immunity by stealth”, but which is really implementing exactly what was promised, i.e. “flattening the curve”.
This is not flattening the curve. We did that, it worked, just. This is unflattening the curve.
sadly and as I said, there's no good solution, only shit and less shit.
It's OK while the option is work vs not work and pick up your furlough, but when the option is work and get paid or don't work and don't get paid you won't need to be getting the guns out. Don't want to go? There's 1.8M households making new claims on UC already, and many more to come who will relieve you of that duty. Take the risk of the virus that you may get or may not, and if you do may be serious or may not, vs the prospect of losing your job, life savings, home.....
The virus terrifies me. The impact of a long term economic meltdown terrifies me. The people making the decisions on the route out terrify me. It just depends which side I sleep on which terrifies me more. Not that I've slept properly for weeks now.
It's not a popular opinion but the impact of this on the economy and subsequently health and wellbeing has the potential to dwarf the impact of the virus itself. I don't say that as an advocate of the current system or of the people benefitting most from it, but right now it is the game, no matter how much we might like to be playing a different one.
So the important question is, did all that mean I can or cannot take my KTM out?
Yes, you can, it seems.
The virus terrifies me. The impact of a long term economic meltdown terrifies me. The people making the decisions on the route out terrify me. It just depends which side I sleep on which terrifies me more. Not that I’ve slept properly for weeks now.
Then stop reading about it and getting involved in this thread then and other media. Walk away, believe me it doesn't help your head to be reading or contributing to the confusion here.
TOJV - I don’t disagree, but a plan needs more than a few slogans.
Some FAQs have been published -
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-outbreak-faqs-what-you-can-and-cant-do/coronavirus-outbreak-faqs-what-you-can-and-cant-do
Cycle, walk, work from home and worst case scenario go by car? Sounds like lots of alternatives to me.
This is London, is it not? A place where a significant portion of the 9 million population do not own a car, or a bike, and have up until now relied entirely on a busy public transport system.
Even if just 1% have no reasonable alternative for traveling to work, that is very near 100,000 people.
One of the main lines for me is that, no earlier than July 4th:
The ambition at this step is to open at least some of the remaining businesses and premises that have been required to close, including personal care (such as hairdressers and beauty
salons) hospitality (such as food service providers, pubs and accommodation), public places (such as places of worship) and leisure facilities (like cinemas).
I had so many MTB trips/holidays planned for this year, still have some booked too - all in the UK I might add - hopefully I'll be able to make a few before summer is out.
Not reading about it doesn't make it go away. I know about it now, that won't change. Being as informed as I can be is my way of dealing with it and while your suggestion is well intentioned I'm sure, it's neither helpful nor actionable for me.
Find out, plan, replan, mitigate. Ignore is not a plan.
TOJV – I don’t disagree, but a plan needs more than a few slogans.
Totally. Do I have faith that they have a plan that the public will support.....far from it.
Some FAQs have been published –
Better, but should have been in place 7pm Sunday night which would have avoided 17.5 pages of STW web space.
Not reading about it doesn’t make it go away. I know about it now, that won’t change. Being as informed as I can be is my way of dealing with it and while your suggestion is well intentioned I’m sure, it’s neither helpful nor actionable for me.
Find out, plan, replan, mitigate. Ignore is not a plan.
I'm not criticising you I'm trying to help. If over exposure is feeding your anxiety, then reduce it by under exposure for a few days - you don't need to ignore it. Driving yourself insane with worry won't help you, most of the outcome is beyond your control anyway. We have a Virus which you've a very small chance of being seriously ill from, and a smaller chance of dying from, and a society that'll survive somehow. Just roll with the punches, and do your best to contribute as no doubt we all are.
This is London, is it not? A place where a significant portion of the 9 million population do not own a car, or a bike, and have up until now relied entirely on a busy public transport system.
and where for years we have been telling them to give up cars and use PT because it's for their own good / the health of the planet.
Impossible situation; they have to work for the reasons above, and have to get to work. Calling them idiots for trying to balance that vs the risk they take in doing so, while sat in your spare bedroom-cum-office space working on your company provided laptop and planning your next ride is no way to be treating decent members of the population at large. This IS necessity to them, not a choice.
Better, but should have been in place 7pm Sunday night which would have avoided 17.5 pages of STW web space.
100% this
it really feels like they test the waters with leaks & interviews before the final details are revealed
of course this leads to confusion
theotherjonv
SubscriberIt’s not a popular opinion but the impact of this on the economy and subsequently health and wellbeing has the potential to dwarf the impact of the virus itself.
I think that's true, though there's lots that can be done to reduce it.
But the correct response to the virus is also the correct fix for the economy. It's impossible to have anything like business as usual with a high rate of infection. By getting reinfection rates down and consequently getting the number of infected down we both save lives and more towards sustainably reopening things.