Macron saying virus is still months away.
Do you mean the end of the first waves main infections?
Sorry meant vaccin.
But yes he also said we need to live with the virus for the foreasanable future and he was honest in saying he didn't have a clue for how long.
The most interesting thing for me was the statement that only a minority of the population has been in contact with the virus, confirmed a few minutes ago by Gilles Bouleau as 6% at most. If confinement is lifted now it'll take off again with so few immune.
Madame is not too happy about the idea off going back to school with the virus still present in May.
Edit: I assume the 6% from the random antibody testing they've been doing and is much lower than estimates linked over the previous pages of 10-15% for Italy and France.
But yes he also said we need to live with the virus for the foreasanable future and he was honest in saying he didn’t have a clue for how long.
Mike Ryan (WHO) said pretty much the same today - social distancing, extra hygiene, possibly masks etc. are all part of life for the foreseeable. Countries can carefully bring bits of society back online IF they are very focussed on containment.
An interesting point made today was it needs to be coordinated and phased across Europe. You can't have countries making decisions in isolation.
Also announced we'd (UK) donated £200M to their COVID effort. I assume in addition to our normal contributions.
Is that so we can get access to their PPE stocks?
TiRed,
Thanks for your response.
I guess it comes down to two different ways of thinking. Better late than never [here], versus the earlier the better [Kenya]. Personally I thought that the herd immunity idea represented an absence of thinking altogether.
In order to have an effective tracking strategy you need to adopt 'the earlier the better' philosophy and that boat sailed for us a long time ago. From a cultural perspective that's much easier to do in Kenya, not so much because they have a stricter / harsher security regimen but more so because they are used to confronting nasty lurgies, [malaria, ebola, aids, cholera etc]. They know their case zero there, a French woman who arrived in Nairobi and knowingly took the virus to Mombassa. This gave them a head start in tracking the spread.
There's a tendency in Africa to see any form of virus as the spawn of satan right away so they go after it with pitchforks [bombers]. It's not so difficult for them to bring the public on board with this. it's much harder to do here as we don't have the same experiences to draw upon. There's an inbuilt philosophy there, don't let an outbreak become an epidemic, much less let an epidemic become a pandemic.
There's also the notion that we in the West, despite all the evidence emerging from China, somehow thought it would be different here, without any evidence to the contrary, other than perhaps a sense of ingrained superiority.
Is that so we can get access to their PPE stocks?
I think it goes to help developing countries. WHO and partners are active in those regions assisting where the health services are struggling. Yemen was discussed today. It's in everyone's interest to help - otherwise, the virus spread will continue.
Ed, if you see anything online about French Anti Body testing please post it, I’d be interested to take a look.
kimbers
Subscriber
Is that so we can get access to their PPE stocks?https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/13/medical-unions-warn-uk-supply-of-protective-gowns-is-critically-lowPosted 27 minutes ago
Why don't the BBC report this?
My wife is being forced to re-use a disposal face shield in her hospital.
Channel4 news have been very strong on the PPE issue.
It could be worse. She could be in Scotland.
https://twitter.com/Inverclyde_SNP/status/1249726260965773313?s=20
(Seems genuine?)
..
BBC covered PPE issue well in tonight’s news.
I thought the most significant thing Macron said was that France was unprepared. Refreshing. The duration of the lockdown is a no brainer. Spain looks hasty. We will be following.
The projected peak could run until May. We’re in the middle, but it’s hard to see if it’s up and down BMX spine or a table top. It’s clear that some regions are lagging well behind London. And the epidemic is the sum of the regions.
Key analysis mode 2... The U.K. regions are fantastically homogeneous. Once that lag is factored in, most likely distance from London and Birmingham, they all look the same.
[TL:DR] epidemic has a long way to go yet. Lockdown to mid/end of May (at least).
If other regions are well behind London, but we all locked down at the same time, would you not expect lower numbers elsewhere in the first wave?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/13/uk-missed-three-chances-to-join-eu-scheme-to-bulk-buy-ppe
/blockquote>"The EU is separately establishing stockpiles within member states, with the first being set up in Romania."
That's nice for the other 168 countries which aren't EU member states.
Still a lack of international solidarity from the EU shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone, even at a time of global crises.
Still a lack of international solidarity from the EU shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone, even at a time of global crises.
Have a listen to what scotroutes posted up there, no different to what is happening here in the 'United' Kingdom....
BBC covered PPE issue well in tonight’s news.
Yup and many other times. Certainly heard it in the radio enough.
The most interesting thing for me was the statement that only a minority of the population has been in contact with the virus, confirmed a few minutes ago by Gilles Bouleau as 6% at most. If confinement is lifted now it’ll take off again with so few immune.
This is what the UK was trying to avoid hence they delayed lock down. I don’t think there’s a right or wrong just what is best for each country.
Still a lack of international solidarity from the EU shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone, even at a time of global crises.
You know the scheme includes non-EU countries as well, yes?
You also know it’s working hard to get international cooperation despite the push back from elsewhere?
Some reading for you as regards what the EU is doing outside Europe:
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_20_606
If other regions are well behind London, but we all locked down at the same time, would you not expect lower numbers elsewhere in the first wave?
Rate of growth is the same everywhere 🙁 There are 150 authorities per timepoint in this plot - 4-fold variablity is not huge.
Epidemics are largely a local thing once seeded. Time to 100 cases has only a 10-day spread. It's easy to think where a ten-day delay for introduction could have come from. So size and duration of each authority sums to give a bigger picture. I've already done that analysis too.
This is what the UK was trying to avoid hence they delayed lock down.
you think they were going for herd immunity by infection?
Hancock denied this was the case
The initial claimed rational for the delay to partial lockdown was two fold:
- slow spread rather than contain the virus (herd immunity feeds into that)
- the population expected to break partial lockdown after a period of time, so later start means a later failure of such measures
Neither were backed up with anything of real substance, other then mention of behaviour based models we can’t see or check for the second, and some old flu based models for first.
Who knows what deliberately letting the virus spread before partial lock down may look like with hindsight in a year’s time… that all depends on how many people we lose, and when measures become available that could have let us battle the virus from a contain rather than slow down position.
Does your analysis point to how many total infected we will get in this first wave?
When the lockdown started I'm sure that the Scottish CMO stated it would need 12/13 weeks to work.
Am I alone in this recollection of her words?
Thank you for your link to an EU Commission press release kelvin.
There is however an alternative opinion, ie not that of EU Commission, which claims that the EU has not had a good pandemic.
If you use the power of google to search you'll find this alternative opinion is to be found in a wide variety of sources, eg from Yanis Varoufakis to the Financial Times.
And since we're of the subject of international solidarity I think you might find that Italy has found the EU to be wanting. I don't think Spain is overjoyed either.
It was a good concise summary of funding and assistance to non-European countries to help deal with this virus, that’s why I linked to it. The myth that the EU is somehow only inward looking is one I find very tiring.
The EU has made a lot of missteps during this pandemic, for sure, but your claim was that they were only interested in the member states, which is not true.
Closer to home, neighbouring countries were pulled into schemes relating to the pandemic where they were willing. We’ve even belatedly taken up the offer.
An international response is needed to this, and the EU aren’t the ones resisting that approach.
you think they were going for herd immunity by infection?
No, it was about controlling the spread at a level the could control then....
You know what I’m sick of explaining it.
When the lockdown started I’m sure that the Scottish CMO stated it would need 12/13 weeks to work.Am I alone in this recollection of her words?
Scottish CMO had stated it a few times since the start as well.
Takes us to towards mid/late June. Which also More or less correlates with Tireds forecast of 1st wave over by July.
All of which presumes control changes* don’t facilitate another flare up and we have the tools to manage the epidemic beyond the first wave.
*I guess we’re about to see a live experiment elsewhere in Europe.
Re the EU
Isn’t health policy basically not in their remit?
you think they were going for herd immunity by infection?
Judge for yourself:
Vallence was and he was on the right in the briefings for weeks before they thankfully got rid. If there's one person who's realy annoyed me through all this it's Vallence, he should have known better and I'm sure did.
I note Ernie is back to slag of the EU and give us his own very special view of politics as usual. This is a tread about a virus, Ernie.
The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/12/documents-contradict-uk-government-stance-on-covid-19-herd-immunity
The Spectator (back in March)
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/herd-immunity-might-still-be-key-in-the-fight-against-coronavirus
National Geographic
https://www.nationalgeographic.co.uk/science-and-technology/2020/03/uk-backed-herd-immunity-beat-covid-19-well-ultimately-need-it
Make of this what you will
wasn't one of the chief tenets of the herd immunity policy to protect the vulnerable ?
Sir David Behan, non-executive director of HC-One, Britain’s largest care home operator, said Covid-19 is present in two-thirds of its care homes.
I’m a big Chris Ware fan. He nailed it with this recent cover…
[img] 
[/img]
I have family working in the NHS and nursing in care homes, and they are making sacrifices and taking risks for us. We just need to seriously tighten our belts and accept a bit of boredom. We can do that.
Some degree of herd immunity, by a combination of exposure and, eventually, vaccination, is the inevitable end goal, so that outbreaks in subsequent years can be handled more like seasonal flu. But obviously, just opening the floodgates is not a practical short or medium term goal because of the vast numbers of excess deaths that would cause in the next six months.
The whole point of lockdown and curve flattening is to control the rate at which a significant proportion of the population is exposed to the virus, while maintaining capacity in the NHS to treat those who develop severe illness.
It is pointless to lockdown so early and so hard that virtually no-one gets it, as the wave of infection will come at some point, either now or in three months. All you can do is try to manage the proportion of the population exposed. The problem is that lockdowns are a blunt instrument, and we are still learning about their effectiveness in terms of disease spread and compliance.
The government has accepted the uncompromising strategy that its statisticians and clinical scientists have produced after modelling every scenario, including the 'washover' one, but communicating it directly to the public requires some finesse to avoid sounding callous.
Herd immunity doesn't work in a sensible way unless there is a vaccine in play. It would eventually work without one - probably. But the fatalities in the interim would be a terrible problem.
I am convinced that the major thing 'they' got wrong in the early stages was hugely underestimating R0. That is what made lockdown inevitable.
The R0 of covid-19 means that any vaccine would have to be administered to a huge number of people for herd immunity to be achieved in a sensible way. That is why it is not just the search for a vaccine that is important, but getting it into tens of millions of people.
It is pointless to lockdown so early and so hard that virtually no-one gets it
And there’s the contention. Contain instead of slowing the spread requires a way out using tools not yet available to us, and is one of the reasons we went for slowing the spread. That decision cost a lot of lives. With many more still yet to pay the ultimate price for that decision. And we still need a way out using tools not yet available to us anyway.
Does your analysis point to how many total infected we will get in this first wave?
It does, but I did not report it in my code - I'll run the sums. The totals are of course the sum of all 150 min-epidemics. With associated uncertainty added.
Preprint is now online. Ask any questions
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.09.20059402v1
Some degree of herd immunity, by a combination of exposure and, eventually, vaccination, is the inevitable end goal
Herd immunity is a scientific concept, mass vaccination is a policy.
A 'policy' of herd immunity through mass infection isn't a policy, the policy is do nothing.
Patrick Vallance likely Dunning–Krugerred himself when he spoke about herd immunity. Many leading experts criticised this 'apparent' do nothing policy because there were too many unknowns at the time; it was unclear how long acquired immunity lasts, and the death rate/health care burden was unclear also.
and the death rate/health care burden was unclear also.
China gave the world some damn good information on both of those. The tables they gave for deaths rates for age groups and the way they publicised building a hospital in a week told the world what to expect. They also showed us all how to contain the virus and are now reaping the benefits.
Thanks for sharing TiRed. How you feeling at the moment?
A bit better, thanks. Chest is still sore though. No breathlessness. No riding. I have walked outside for a few 100m to feed the ducks 🙂
And for something a bit different, I enjoyed reading this analysis of the Twitter "Infodemic"
- it's really rather good. Technical, but worth the read. Methods figures are interesting. It is BIG DATA after all... https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.08.20057968v1.full.pdf+html
All of which presumes control changes* don’t facilitate another flare up and we have the tools to manage the epidemic beyond the first wave.
*I guess we’re about to see a live experiment elsewhere in Europe.
I thought that the next steps for Italy/Spain would only move them to our softer lockdown anyway. They were saying (Spain I think) that approved manufacturing and construction would start to be allowed, which is what we have here anyway. They're not proposing people are free to go out. But yes, be interesting to see if even this results in the infection rate increasing again. Germany will be interesting too.
30 refrigerated containers at Southampton Airport appatently according to a customer in our shop who is part of the emergency setvices
Temporary morgue on standby
Drac. Would some beers be welcome at our local big N H S hospital?
After a long and testing shift with crushing emotional load, ypu go in the staff room and there's a lovely fruit bowl. Fab, but a satsuma isn't really going to cut it just now.
Chapeaux TiRed - some serious work gone into that. I hope you get recognition from your peers.
Proud to see some of my grounded colleagues have set up this scheme to help out in hospitals. I hope it helps in some small way.
Not sure if this has been posted but Interesting reading about possible correlation to Vitamin d deficiency and CV 19 deaths...
www.dropbox.com/s/ka7h4fbi7xdz9s9/Covid-19
Herd immunity is a scientific concept, mass vaccination is a policy.
Both of them are abstract scientific concepts right now. Our actual policies are based on significant assumptions (some of them quite hopeful ones), and of course there will be debate over the efficacy of various interventions and the point at which you implement them.
“Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.” Sir Winston Churchill
Some interesting parallels between current pandemic and the Spanish flu pandemic,particularly David Lloyd George and Boris.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/09/spanish-flu-pandemic-centenary-first-world-war
I note Ernie is back to slag of the EU and give us his own very special view of politics as usual. This is a tread about a virus, Ernie.
I am talking about the COVID-19 pandemic. I am not talking about the pros and cons of EU membership.
Sadly the usual EU cheerleaders on here have used the pandemic to attack Brexit on this thread.
If kimbers wants to use this thread to make a point on how disadvantaged the UK is due to Brexit, then this it is perfectly reasonable to point out that there has been widespread criticism of the EU's handling of the pandemic. This is not my "very special view". It is a fact.
If you google "EU response to coronavirus" you will find more articles negatively criticising the EU than praising it. In fact some are arguing that this, the worse crises the EU has ever faced, might have the potential to destroy it.
Anyway I take your point Edukator.........mention the EU as much as you like on this thread, just as long as the comments aren't negative! BTW where's the winkies?
🙂
If kimbers wants to use this thread to make a point on how disadvantaged the UK is due to Brexit, then this it is perfectly reasonable to point out that there has been widespread criticism of the EU’s handling of the pandemic. This is not my “very special view”. It is a fact.
I did that? 'twas your goodself that brough brexit in to it!
We still had the opportunity to participate in the scheme, in-spite of Brexit, thats the entire point!
If you feel the need to defend your had right bedfellows denying NHS staff PPE for idealogical reasons, then you plow on ernie!
Personally I have friends & colleagues who have struggled massively to secure PPE for their work in hospital and I worry for them & their families.
& I did previously express my disappointment at the EUs slow & stilted response to the crisis, especially so when they are in a unique position as a transnational body to orchestrate a response, because the only way out of this is cooperation at an international level. the isolationism of nationalists is no solution to a global pandemic.
And another significant paper on an animal model of infection. Macaque monkeys demonstrate the plethora of human COVID-19 sequalae including lung lesions. This will be the animal model used to evaluate new medicines - you can't just go into humans for diseases like anthrax, plague, SARS-COV-1/2. We test in animal models and match their exposure. Approval is based on the "animal rule", but in the pandemic, we will. of course, test in humans as well.
Sorry if Ive missed a link, but is your paper On Biorvx Tired?
denying NHS staff PPE for idealogical reasons, then you plow on
That's quite an extreme view kimbers, can you post some real evidence of the claim or retract
because the only way out of this is cooperation at an international level
Agree with this bit - but who's going to do it?
At the WHO briefing yesterday India raised that half a million test kits that were due to be supplied from China were diverted last minute to the USA. WHO doesn't seem to have any way of preventing this sort of thing.
Asked why the Government had chosen not to join the EU scheme, the PM's spokesman replied: "Because we're no longer members of the EU."
[Narrators voice] The EC had indeed invited the UK to participate and had been involved in discussions as early as February[/Narrators voice]
If you feel the need to defend your had right bedfellows denying NHS staff PPE
Ooh nasty. Shall we leave it before this descends further into the gutter kimbers
FYI one of my very close riding buddies is a paramedic. As you can imagine I am deeply deeply worried about her, one of her colleagues is in intensive care on a ventilator. Croydon has been particularly badly hit by COVID-19. But she sends me silly TikTok videos of her and her colleagues dancing at the ambulance station to reassure me that their spirits are still high. Although I know that in reality they are very scared.
Is that quote the best your link has to offer? That does not support your extreme claim at all. Retract or post some real evidence that NHS staff are being denied PPE because of idealogical reasons.
Seriously get a grip of your bias, you claim to work in scientific depts.
It doesnt? so what is your explanation for the government not signing up to the scheme exsee?
If you or ernie have a better one, I'd love to hear it!
so what is your explanation for the government not signing up to the scheme exsee?
Have you ruled out utter incompetence ?
Have you ruled out utter incompetence ?
fair point!
Im also worried why we have chosen not to join the joint scheme for laboratory supplies, that seems extra daft as its lack of reagents & kits that are holding us back from establishing a proper testing regime
Drac. Would some beers be welcome at our local big N H S hospital?
After a long and testing shift with crushing emotional load, ypu go in the staff room and there’s a lovely fruit bowl. Fab, but a satsuma isn’t really going to cut it just now.
I work for an ambulance service, hospitals have many areas so specify where you’d like it to go. What I will say, this is my own view, is that these gifts are wonderful they offer a nice moral boost, the food, drinks go down well and are appreciated. However, personally I’d say give stuff to a food bank or charity as first choice. If you wish to give to the nhs fruit would actually be welcome as we receive cake, chocolate, pizza, curries and biscuits out of our ears. Nestle sent out 10s of 1000s of Easter eggs over the weekend. Drinks wise soft drinks would be very much welcome as they can be consumed on shift. The generosity of the public, small and big businesses has been incredible and very welcome from us all. Cheers very much for the thoughts.
Kelvin that photo is spot on it catches how it is for my staff perfectly. I’m just one step away from it providing support in various formats from them, although I am attending cases too, so my exposure is way less than there’s.
@kimbers, was that a retraction? An apology would be fair I think. Making extreme and offensive claims need real evidence or you are spreading fake news.
was that a retraction?
Retract what? The government either refused to take part in the PPE sourcing first round of EU coordinated procurement for ideological reasons as regards Brexit, or they didn’t think it would be needed so paid little attention to it. Either way they are responsible for PPE shortages resulting from that. My money is on an ideological aversion to looking reliant on the EU resulting in us not joining the scheme to source PPE that we now so clearly need.
Not sure what you’re expecting from Kimbers here.
That Vit D article was interesting and might go some way to explain the over-representation of ethnic minorities amongst fatalities in that darker skin is less efficient at taking up Vit D from the sun. Ofcourse other factors like urban populations, multiple occupancy, diet, employment, transport will all play a part but it inspired me to get out the deckchairs and flick open a tinny. The appliance of science.
Well, mass vaccination is an intervention to achieve a certain end, namely herd immunity. It's a legitimate health policy.
I've never heard of passive herd immunity being any kind of health policy. It's something which happens in due course with some pathogens. The virus does it, the state and its instruments doesn't.
I'm still puzzled why Patrick Vallance came out with his decree that 60% of us must get infected. If that's the solution then what's the problem?
Being charitable then it may be said that UK scientists and technocrats had a legitimate reason to think corona was only slightly worse than regular influenza. A policy to shield vulnerable for a few weeks/months was thus sound.
On the other hand China was building hospitals in a week and taking it much more seriously.
Less charitably, Patrick Vallance was either way too enmeshed with a Tory regime which obviously has a big ideological problem with large scale state intervention and an unhealthy enamourment with behaviour science (the nudge unit) which fits its worldview a little too well. When you only allow yourself the use of a screwdriver all problems are to be tackled with a screwdriver. 'Herd immunity policy' then was more dictated by the tools available (behavioural science) than led by the data and informed by the medical theory.
Either that or like I said before Vallance didn't really understand what he was talking about (Dunning-Kruger).
I'm expecting evidence Kelvin? Somebody mentioned incompetence as an alternative view and he folded on his extreme claim immediately.
Miscommunication, poor planning, different strategies, incompetence are all possibilities and probably all part of the EU procurement problem
Claiming NHS staff are being denied PPE based on ideological reasons is an extreme claim and needs real evidence or its fake news. So many much more realistic possibilities and widely reported issues.
Rydster is absolutely bang on
Less charitably, Patrick Vallance was either way too enmeshed with a Tory regime
One of the incredibly depressing things about the daily pressers is that not only are the ministers at the podium a bunch of lying shysters, but the "scientists", public health officials of one sort or another have also joined the party, evading questions, putting out propaganda, making stuff up. Where are those who are ready to speak truth to power?
The "science" presented at those conferences is superficial at best. Sadly it's what the public seem capable of processing, which is a statement on science understanding in this country. The science that is being used for decision-making is not so superficial. Well, some of it, anyway 😉
Either that or like I said before Vallance didn’t really understand what he was talking about (Dunning-Kruger).
Am I the only person who's watched every briefing and never once concluded that the UK policy was 'herd immunity'? Throttling the infection rate and protecting the vulnerable and NHS, yes. Maybe it's because I don't read the papers. Or perhaps I'm gullible or thick.
If you managed to avoid the TV appearances over that weekend, and only followed the daily briefing, then the “herd immunity” and “60%” stuff was easy to avoid/miss Jamze. People have posted it in this thread if you want to look back.
Am I the only person who’s watched every briefing and never once concluded that the UK policy was ‘herd immunity’?
No, Rydster and others have had and been shown the government plan many times now but here we are back to square one. Will herd immunity also play a part? Yes if/when a vaccine comes along but until then it’s still about controlling the spread.
The policy was do nothing to protect the majority of the population. That "experiment" came to an end as much due to outside pressure as following any kind of policy:
needs real evidence
A minister said that we were not involved in the EU scheme as regards PPE because “we are not on the EU” even though we and other non member states were not only invited to join it, but included in talks about it. This being due to rank incompetence rather than being ideologically motivated can never be ruled out, that is true.
Sorry Drac, but the idea of obtaining herd immunity by controlled exposure absolutely was put out there by people in key roles (as detailed many times in this thread), but long since dumped publicly after pressure from all directions.
The policy was do nothing to protect the majority of the polulation.
No, no it wasn’t. 🤦🏻♂️
Controlling the spread through behavioural nudges is a policy Drac. Herd immunity isn't.
As it turns out the former was not/would not have been sufficient to the ends of preventing the NHS from being overwhelmed with people needing critical care. Hence we are where we are. It's a mistake to think that citing a 'true' scientific concept in a policy decision makes it the right decision.