Don't forget the ethnicity demographic data is skewed towards youth for the BAME averages, but the hospitalised tend to be middle-aged or older.
He's out and off to chequers which is not his home, or his flat.
Yeah, and his dad sodded off to his second home in Cornwall. All in it together....
Sorry, repetitive question - are the reported deaths just those in hospital still or do they include out of hospital deaths as well now?
MCTD - IIRC the Scottish "daily" figures only include hospital. There is a weekly update (Wednesdays??) that includes all those in nursing homes/external too. Not sure what the other countries are doing but I think it's hospital only.
Meh…..shrug…….I gave him as much thought and consideration as the pheasants that end up flattened on the roads, that man and his government have over 10,000 deaths on their hands due to their incompetence at governance and lack of planning despite being warned in January regarding the pandemic.
Absolute inaccurate bullshit. I’m not keen on Boris either but there isn’t a government in the world that’s stopped all deaths. Different actions may have reduced deaths, or they may not, but he’s not responsible for the total. It’d pay you to remember that all countries have used thier scientific advisors to try to navigate around it. It was new, sudden and with huge impact - a massive task under pressure and responsibility. Could you have done better?
Not the first time Boris has nearly moved me to tears.....
A changed man?
Let's hope it lasts.
It's now up to us to hold him to his words.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52213246
As I thought. New "total" figures for Scotland are released on Wednesdays to include any weekend backlog and the non-hospital numbers. I can't find a confirmatory link for the rest of the UK, though this page offers some degree of perspective on the non-hospital numbers https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52196978
It was new, sudden and with huge impact
In some countries. We were lucky to be able to learn from what happened there, but we didn’t… well, not soon enough.
Thanks Scotroutes, I'd got confused as to whether they were included or corrected.
The critical care article is interesting. I read it it’s entirety. Remember that the comparator is “other viral pneumonia“. Which is basically influenza.
Much of the difference comes down to presentation and management of respiratory. If you have COVID19 you present with slightly worse scores and require more respiratory support. If you need supplemental oxygen and/or forced pressure mask, then your odds are about 80% survival. If you need full respirator then sadly they are about 33%. The proportion presenting needing even Basic support for breathing is much higher than the control (influenza). Support for other organs is about the same. COVID19 presents a very different lung aetiology. There will be some on here who are dealing with that on a daily basis (@crikey)
The data is univariate, but mortality increases with age, but is high from 50’s onwards. It is limited due to the numbers with prolonged critical care stays absent from the data.
[TL:DR] if you are admitted to critical care and need a ventilator, it’s not good news. But if you don’t, then things are much much better. And it is definitely #notflu
Kryton57,
I could have done better.
I would have told the airlines to 'stay at home' late January.
Might of cost a billion, would have saved a trillion.
The lack of preparedness on the part of the NHS looks the most damaging now. It looks like we got to mid-March and they suddenly realised that PPE and ventilators would be a problem. Note I'm not criticising regular NHS staff but those tasked with looking after these strategic matters.
Could you have done better?
You know what I reckon 3 poster from this thread advised by TiRed could have done better!!
Kryton57 : Could you have done better?
Our government was woefully and criminal underprepared despite advance warning so yeah....I could have done better.
Our government was woefully and criminal underprepared despite advance warning so yeah….I could have done better.
So why didn’t you? All very good to be wise after the fact. And the fact you pertain to have be able to yet didn’t make every effort to do so makes you as guilty as he is.
I think we underestimate the stark political choice of shutting down the economy. I do think it was poorly explained at the very beginning, and it was an easier decision once other countries had taken that path with seemingly little public hostility. That probably bought the U.K. a week and (say) 10k deaths. Remember that it’s easy to cry wolf in pandemic land. You can only call it once really. And this was that time. There has been 20 years of preparation. But for what? Armies are always prepared for the last war. Same thing here.
Failure in testing is where the opprobrium will fall. Instrument flying in bad weather is a skill and an art. Not having the instruments is the issue. PHE has not shown agility where others have. I can only imagine the frustration of not knowing how many have had it, who now has it, etc. I’m about 95% certain I have had it. But have not had a test.
I could have done better.
I did btw 😉 . Three weeks ago, I sent some analyses that were not based on modelling and completely different to other epidemiological work to my friend who presented the work to U.K. Govt. I’ve sent them analyses every day since. It’s not all academics, and nothing I have shown is confidential.
Ha, you really are rather amusing, crack on drinking the cool-aid krypton
Well, perhaps stop accusing people of mass murder, claiming you could have done better whilst actually demonstrating that you didn’t.
it’s all very well pointing the finger whilst being a keyboard warrior, but let’s see you do something constructive with your energy eh?
So why didn’t you?
Somafunk for prime minister, I'd vote for him over Boris.
The lack of ability to test was shocking here, I saw a stat recently that NZ did more testing and their population is about 200 000, with a load of extra sheep. The UK government ****ed this up big style no two ways about it.
I did btw 😉 . Three weeks ago, I sent some analyses that were not based on modelling and completely different to other epidemiological work to my friend who presented the work to U.K. Govt. I’ve sent them analyses every day since. It’s not all academics, and nothing I have shown is confidential.
God bless you Tired, no ones having a crack at you. Your efforts and posting here are nothing sure of amazing and and quite humbling!
Looks like the Royal Gwent Hospital staff are really in desperate need of help in dealing with their patients:
Half of their A&E team test positive
I know a few of the staff there from taking my dad to it for his chemo and a friend used to work there so this is really close to home. I don't know what is causing the high infection rate for them but can you imagine working knowing that you have a 50% chance of getting ill with something that is hell bent on killing your colleagues, patients and you?
Somafunk for prime minister, I’d vote for him over Boris.
Educate me then please? What’s he done that Boris hasn’t, whilst not being in any kind of influential decision making capacity all? It’s all very well posting this kind of stuff until you’ve stepped in those shoes, where I suspect you’d find things a little more challenging than you’d glean from this thread.
I think we underestimate the stark political choice of shutting down the economy. I do think it was poorly explained at the very beginning, and it was an easier decision once other countries had taken that path with seemingly little public hostility. That probably bought the U.K. a week and (say) 10k deaths. Remember that it’s easy to cry wolf in pandemic land. You can only call it once really. And this was that time. There has been 20 years of preparation. But for what? Armies are always prepared for the last war. Same thing here.
You'd want to hedge your risk in that scenario. Responding to the risk of a pandemic up until mid-March wasn't either/or. You might elect to take some easy wins in reducing transmissions like shutting pubs and banning large gatherings like horse races and football games, in contrast to a 'full shutdown'. Also, get the NHS ready by securing supplies of PPE and other equipment.
I'm not convinced the risk was well managed even if they 'let the models take the decision'. As you say the those models contained heaps of uncertaintly.
Well, perhaps stop accusing people of mass murder, claiming you could have done better whilst actually demonstrating that you didn’t.
You do realise Somafunk isnt even a MP let alone a minister or the prime minister dont you?
Educate me then please? What’s he done that Boris hasn’t, whilst not being in any kind of influential decision making capacity all? It’s all very well posting this kind of stuff until you’ve stepped in those shoes, where I suspect you’d find things a little more challenging than you’d glean from this thread.
Even for you this is a highlight!!
You do realise Somafunk isnt even a MP let alone a minister or the prime minister dont you?
yeah but, he could have done better he says. I’m challenging him as to how, I haven’t seen an answer yet.
Even for you this is a highlight!
Maybe. As above. He could have done better he says...?
I’m challenging him as to how, I haven’t seen an answer yet.
I'd back him to act on advice with compassion rather than start worrying about the cost.
I’d back him to act on advice with compassion rather than start worrying about the cost.
Ok cool. Did he though? Did he put himself in a position to do so? Where’s the evidence of his effort to do so?
Did he though?
He IS NOT THE PRIME MINISTER, not sure how this is hard to understand.
As far as I'm aware i have no control over the procurement of PPE, i have no control over testing of arrivals at airports/ferry terminals, I have no control over mass public gatherings, I have no control over procurement of antigen/antibody testing equipment, I have no control over the planning over lockdown procedures.
I expect my government to be staffed by competant people who do have control of such matters, unfortunately my expectations were not met therefore i consider the government response to be incompetent - but perhaps you are correct, it was my fault we are in this situation as i did not raise my concerns with bojo the clown and his acolytes earlier
What i did have control over was my personal safety and of those close to me so i took the necessary measures to avoid the virus, the only person i have regularly come into close contact with since the beginning of february is/was my mum who helps me out on a daily basis and has also been following my example of social distancing/isolation.
Aha! So despite accusing Boris of being a mass murderer and claiming you could do better you’ve made no more effort than any other half sensible person whilst also posting on Singletrack.
So despite accusing Boris of being a mass murderer and claiming you could do better you’ve made no more effort than any other half sensible person
You know you have convinced me, the useless ** should have rustled up an election in february! Mass murdering * end
Yeah Soma, you lazy ****!
So despite accusing Boris of being a mass murderer and claiming you could do better
You do realise that statement is dependent upon being put in a position to do so.
Jesus wept, am I really having to explain this? Kryten living up to his namesake once again.
Sorry guys, i really dropped the ball on this one - i took care of myself and those close to me whilst utterly failing to highlight the seriousness of the coming situation - its all my fault....christ!, i really wish i could turn back the clock to the beginning of February and put a call into #10 to inform them of my concerns.
I'm away to sit on the naughty step and contemplate my inaction which has directly led to thousands of needless deaths.
You do realise that statement is dependent upon being put in a position to do so
Lol, of course. But that’s my point. Somafunk is making an outrageous claim whilst not doing anything to support it. It’s all conjecture with no substance which is the very thing he’s accusing - perhaps rightly - the government of.
Maybe instead of that - if he felt as strongly as he claims - he could be out there convincing us to support him as the revolutionary people’s champion or something. But he’s not.
Are you on the sauce?
Are you on the sauce?
I am; it’s still not helping with Kryton’s argument.
Is this really the time or place? Be nice to each other please.
As far as I’m aware i have no control over the procurement of PPE, i have no control over testing of arrivals at airports/ferry terminals, I have no control over mass public gatherings, I have no control over procurement of antigen/antibody testing equipment, I have no control over the planning over lockdown procedures.
What sort of excuse is that? Admit it - you are responsible for a global pandemic!
I'm sorry, but i took exception to a person inaccurately blaming someone else of the mass murder of 10000 people and then claiming they could do better, when basically the whole statement was inaccurate conjecture. Likewise in this situation that is not appropriate.
Anyway, we could on now to the house opposite mine who appear to have invited people to a dinner party, unbelievable....
Someone been in the sun today? Even if I were on the good crack I'd still be confused!
agreed.
anyway...
what is to be made of the comments by the guy from SAGE, saying that the number of deaths in the UK could be the highest in europe?
what is to be made of the comments by the guy from SAGE, saying that the number of deaths in the UK could be the highest in europe?
I blame Somafunk!
fair point. he's always been a wrong-un. 😉
Wellcome Trust director Sir Jeremy Farrar says the UK is “likely to be one of the worst, if not the worst, affected countries in Europe”.
Sir Jeremy, a member of the UK government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said this was down to the lack of testing and tracing.
He also told the BBC's Andrew Marr a second or third wave of coronavirus was "probably inevitable" and a vaccine was the only way out,
from the beeb.
saying that the number of deaths in the UK could be the highest in europe?
That honour will belong to Spain. Followed by Italy. Then the U.K. Germany will be disproportionately lower, reflecting their advanced healthcare and testing regimen. France will be the same as the UK. The claim was a guess, nothing more. Probably not even an educated one. Every media outlet needs an expert to outclaim the last. Google Sayre’s law.
I blame Somafunk!
+1 - outrageous that he failed to act at the time.
The Beeb reporting John Hopkins university looking at death rates per 100,000 of the population with the top/worst being:
Spain
Italy
Belgium
Framce
Netherlands
UK
Presumably we can expect our position to worsen as the others are ahead of us on the curve?
Be interesting to see how our position stands at the end, then we can see how our handling compares to other countries
arguably putting the pressure on for them to get their shit together over test and trace, as there appears to be no plan as yet?
what is to be made of the comments by the guy from SAGE, saying that the number of deaths in the UK could be the highest in europe?
Second most populous country in Europe (exc Russia)
Dropped a bollock early on
Still dropping a bollock with testing
Many other bollocks also being dropped (notably Somafunk for not having sorted everything out)
Relatively high population density
Seems like a reasonable possibility to me.
Maybe Kryton and Somafunk could form a government of national unity? How else are we going to squash the sombrero?
Many other bollocks also being dropped (notably Somafunk for not having sorted everything out)
I won’t be voting for him in the next election,
arguably putting the pressure on for them to get their shit together over test and trace, as there appears to be no plan as yet?
Probably getting it all set up.
The site in Milton Keynes is the first of 3 mega-labs that will be integrated into the new national testing infrastructure, with new sites being set up each day across the country to take patient samples. This is the first of three Lighthouse Labs to be set up across the country, dramatically increasing the number of coronavirus tests that can take place each day. The labs have taken their name from the PCR testing technology, which uses fluorescent light to detect the virus.
Science crossover!
Karl Friston is right up there in the top few neuroimaging analysis people in the world (my area, pretty much). He's seriously world class clever. So even though it's not exactly his field, this may be worth a look / read:
https://www.fil.ion.ucl.ac.uk/spm/covid-19/
Interesting lecture on modelling epidemics. Includes a reference to the flu in the boarding school that tired (I think) made earlier.
I personally would like to thank Kryton57 for bringing some much needed humour to this thread. Sat here laughing my tits off 🙂
UK numbers are still nonsense so no way anyone can claim to know we won't be winning the worst league in history.
Spain, Italy and France also reporting wonky numbers
We have lots of numbers to look at but no true base.
I personally would like to thank Kryton57 for bringing some much needed humour to this thread. Sat here laughing my tits off
Im glad you liked it, it took a lot of effort to try and communicate the Richie Richard school of politics without mentioning Thatcher.
We have lots of numbers to look at but no true base
Sadly true and hugely sad that this is happening because of said league table positioning.
Don't forget we've had 5 years of Governments determined at every possible turn to ignore the opinions of experts and undermine the capabilities of the Civil Service, particularly following 10 years of structural cuts to infrastructure. As I've said repeatedly, pandemic has been on the National Security risk register for yonks, but successive Governments have chosen to ignore / underplay it and undermine our resilience to respond. Trouble is, our politicians are now programmed to lie and obfuscate when confronted with difficult issues and it doesn't bode well for the future as further difficult decisions are still needed. There's also going to be some interesting discussions when confronted by the fact that poorly paid and ethnic minorities are going to be disproportionally affected by Covid-19 or the lockdown and what "settlement" the country is going to give them. - whether Boris has has an epiphany whilst in the ICU, or we'll just get back to business as usual?
pandemic has been on the National Security risk register for yonks, but successive Governments have chosen to ignore / underplay it and undermine our resilience to respond.
Bill Gates was on the BBC this morning stating the same thing.
Sweden still seem to be doing OK despite not locking down as much as the rest of europe, so whys that?
Are they just behind everyone else and they're going to get hit much worse in the near future, or are they doing something else?
But if it isn’t in the sun/mail nobody will care.
Gray - that presentation is 90 minutes long, but I had a flick and there’s some interesting predictions for London.
Julians, yeah it's odd, how does that work?.
Well this thread has completely gone to shit.
pandemic has been on the National Security risk register for yonks, but successive Governments have chosen to ignore / underplay it and undermine our resilience to respond.
Which is why I think the justifiable anger at the way the current government has handled it is bit too knee jerk - in 2009 apparently we were near the top of a WHO pandemic readiness league, any lessons learnt exercise or enquiry needs to go right back and see why we had no stocks of PPE ready, why the NHS/social care had so little capacity for a pandemic
My colleague at MK hospital says they are closing one of the covid wards, so lockdown working!
No route out of it without mass testing tho....
And testing centre here still not up & running, despite what Hancock keeps saying
Daft thing is if they'd left the rtPCR machines they nicked from all the unis, they couldve be been running weeks ago
Doesn’t Sweden have the lowest population density in Europe? Plus in a scandi winter they stay inside.
It hasn't, it's been good today, some great input, then kryton had a brainfart.
Edit - in response to Drac, sorry.
Spain
Italy
Belgium
Framce
Netherlands
UKPresumably we can expect our position to worsen as the others are ahead of us on the curve?
Out in Semi final on penalties I'm afraid....
This is meant in a light-hearted way.
Yeah one page of handbags, but a lot of good stuff.
Doesn’t Sweden have the lowest population density in Europe? Plus in a scandi winter they stay inside.
I think (saw it somewhere) about half the households in Sweden are single occupancy, which helps a lot.
kryton had a brainfart.
A user came on here and posted a very serious accusation. You might think that’s justified somehow but I didn’t - with regard to whom it is aimed at. That is my opinion. It’s done, finished.
Yeah ok i dropped the ball, I'm very sorry for not implementing a strategy for gaining the upper hand with regard to cover-19 but from now on i will be upfront and release all my data in a similar fashion to Tired of this parish.
As a result of my self imposed exile on the naughty step where i examined my faults so far i have informed the department of health that from this week onwards i will strive to produce a valid and repeatable accurate testing procedure using the finest laboratory equipment i can afford (perhaps i need to crowd fund?)
This will do as it has 150 experiments, a damn site more than i will need so once i have a proven testing procedure i'll move onto the common cold, HIV etc
Gray – that presentation is 90 minutes long, but I had a flick and there’s some interesting predictions for London.
Yeah... I haven't watched the video, just looked through the paper. Can't claim to understand it all, but yes it does give an interesting picture. No guarantees that it's more correct than any other of many approaches of course. One thing that's interesting in itself is just how much variation there is between different highly qualified groups in interpreting the current position, let alone predicting the likely future. I guess that all stems from the fact that we just can't currently test enough people to see definitively what the situation is at any given point in time.
Leadership across the Western World, [both Governments and Opposition parties] has been severely Lacking relation to the threat of a Pandemic.
The only Western leader of recent times who would have been on top of this is George W bush.
@TiRed - does your model follow the framework in the video below (but with the coin flipping bit he mentions - stolhistic?) Or do something different
Leadership across the Western World, [both Governments and Opposition parties] has been severely Lacking relation to the threat of a Pandemic.
The only Western leader of recent times who would have been on top of this is George W bush.
There's a fair few western leaders that seem to be on top of the pandemic, Merkle, Arden, Jakobsdóttir...
How come Boris seemed ok in his press release? Wasn't he in ICU a few days ago with I presume a very nasty cough and breathing difficulties? I spose Easter is the time of miracles..
The genetics thing that popped up on the last page is interesting and needs careful looking at, I think. Struck me that a lot of the UK's dead healthcare staff were Asian so I tried a count-up (source, Telegraph website dated today - probably credible for this purpose)
All of these folk were named, of course, most had pictures and a bit of potted history. I made my judgment from these.
34 dead
19 (56%) Asian (eastern Mediterranean to Phillipines)
5 (15%) Black (OK, I admit this was almost all just from pics)
9 (26%) White
1 (3%) unable to determine
(Edit: I know the NHS seems to run heavily on filippino nurses but still) Feels unbalanced and therefore "important" (hesitate to say significant)
I'm thinking that them being health workers makes them most likely to have caught this at work, removing
- some
of the socioeconomic aspect
(I'm claiming that the above assumption is slightly validated by the higher than expected proportion of women here at 44% ratehr than 20% generally reported in the "4 to 1" figure)
On immune system etc, a team from northern Italy reported a while ago that of over 500 pts with inflammatory bowel disease who were on their books, none had severe illness due to CV, nor even were tested for it. A lot of them were on really quite "gentle" immune modifying drugs for their IBD but a decent bunch (nealrly 40%) were on quite potent ones. None of this group was diagnosed as having COVID (though they weren't all tested of course - but the assumption would be that, if any did get it, none became ill enough to present to medical services and get testing)
500-odd isn't a big enough number; Nobody KNOWs how to interpret that, including the authors (see below) but it's certainly not looking like immunosuppression is massively harmful to your chances. Course, they may have isolated earlier & better than everyone else too.
The recent onset of this pandemic outbreak, which is still ongoing, and the lack of epidemiologically robust data, preclude us from drawing certain conclusions regarding its incidence and its effects in specific populations of patients. However, if we base our calculation on a mathematical model applied to the Wuhan region, which estimated a 86% undocumented cases, we could speculate that in Bergamo province a total of 46.220 patients were infected by SARS-CoV-2, accounting for 4% of the total population4. From this model we could estimate that 21 cases among our IBD cohort should have been infected
Makes you think ...
Sue Hill, vice-president of the Royal College of Surgeons, said she believed UK deaths could rise to 30,000. She acknowledged that the government has a difficult job but said it gave the appearance of placing “political spin” over action.
Describing the daily Downing Street briefing as “a bit of a joke”, she said: “He [Boris Johnson or another cabinet minister] is sitting there speaking about subjects he doesn’t really understand and can’t answer questions about it. It’s political spin, isn’t it? They’re not doing themselves any favours.
“The thing that irritates me is cabinet ministers are standing up every day, addressing us as if we’re on a war footing and giving Churchillian quotes when they could be doing a few simple things like getting more bits of plastic and paper [which personal protective equipment is made out of] on to wards.”