Surprised at how little discussion there is of this outside of impact on shares and travel. (and yes I did do a search)
So here's a thought, does the unprecedented lockdown of almost 50 million people suggest that this outbreak is much worse than China and the WHO are letting on, or are they overreacting?
the disaster fappers will be here shortly...you can guess who.
Its easily spread isn't it. So locking down a city is probably a good containment protocol.
It has spread though I heard on R4 earlier.
Ahh well.
does the unprecedented lockdown of almost 50 million people suggest that this outbreak is much worse than China
Well as of this morning is killed more people than flu in China in 2018 or 16&17 combined. Whilst I very much doubt the accuracy of the reported official figures on flu deaths from China (China daily linked below) the national health committee is the same agency now reporting 170 plus to corona virus. Given the US reports 60k deaths per annum (cdc below) a similar level of number massaging would suggest a lot more than 170 deaths but still not many more than flu, in a much shorter time frame than a flu season though, so potentially very bad.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201902/22/WS5c6f11daa3106c65c34eaaf7.html
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm
or are they overreacting?
That's a question that can never be answered. We'll know if they don't do enough but we'll never know what would happen if they did nothing.
I suppose the one good thing is that it's happened in the one country able to act so quickly and decisively. Of course one must recognize why that is which is less that palettable
I suppose the one good thing is that it’s happened in the one country able to act so quickly and decisively.
Hmmm...
https://twitter.com/GearoidReidy/status/1222673517914677248?s=20
It has a sneaky title but we have one.
https://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/building-a-hospital-in-a-week/
Don’t know if you TikTok but here you go:
https://vm.tiktok.com/VYVm8R/
For those who don’t here are the key points:
RLSW is a biotech company based in China. It’s logo is near identical to the Umbrella Corporation in the Resident Evil games.
In those games the “C virus” spreads around Racoon City.
Racoon is an anagram of Corona!
Coincidence? I think not!!1!?!
Brilliant conspiracy graham, could be a movie andin the sequel all the dead people get turned into food for the survivors?
Except for a small error it is quite funny.
I'm quite interested in the ages of the fatalities. The first 20 or so were all over 60. When it reaches the UK that could solve quite a few problems.
We've all heard of pooping through the eye of a needle. I heard that the coronavirus gives you quantum diarrhea, meaning that you can poop through solid materials, and the poop is simultaneously in two places at once. That's how strong this disease is.
One of my sons is in China, school cancelled for another week, everything locked down, have to get your temperature taken to get into the mall, so he's spending a lot of time in his apartment. Told me the other day he'd ploughed through the Witcher in a couple of goes. That's how bad it's getting.
This is different right?? I mean I'm probably not going to buy any but if I was offered a cold one I don;t have to refuse do I???
[url= https://i.postimg.cc/tCgCsm69/CORONA.jp g" target="_blank">https://i.postimg.cc/tCgCsm69/CORONA.jp g"/> [/img][/url][url= https://postimages.org/ ]upload pic free[/url]
Dazh has a point. After an initial crisis, it could simultaneously reduce the pensions crisis, pressure on the NHS, free up housing and seriously threaten the chances of the Tories getting re-elected. 🤔
+No, I don't really want any of that to happen via a killer virus. Except maybe the last one)
tbf tories vs killer virus is a close call
I was thinking yesterday that perhaps earth has decided to take things into its own hands. It has got up one day and thought...right, none of these billions of people are going to pull their finger out and actually do something, so as usual I'm going to have to sort things out myself. Here's an untreatable virus to reduce the population by 5%!
Planet needs a reset button.
Killer virus is a bit more preferable than a nuclear winter.
Here’s an untreatable virus to reduce the population by 5%!
It’ll have to choose something more effective if it only kills 5%.
woe woe and thrice woe.....
tbf tories vs killer virus is a close call
Not really, if I had them both round to dinner, only one would put me off eating the suckling pig.
what I want to know is why do all these viruses originate in China?
1996 avian h5n1
2002 sars
and now we have one named after a Mexican beer.
Animal food markets plus loads of people. Beer virus (varieties of common cold are caused by corona viruses fwiw) likely crossed species from bats, again fwiw. Which is why the Sun calls it 'snake flu"
The rim of the head of the penis is called a corona
The virus in World War Z first emerged in China
Just sayin'
The first 20 or so were all over 60. When it reaches the UK that could solve quite a few problems.
Cheers @dazh
When it reaches the UK that could solve quite a few problems.
If only it had spread before the referendum!
After an initial crisis, it could simultaneously reduce the pensions crisis, pressure on the NHS, free up housing and seriously threaten the chances of the Tories getting re-elected. 🤔
Not to mention the fact that the campaign to rejoin the EU will receive a major boost. Good boost to the economy too with all that inheritance cash floating about. I've already got my eye on a new bike or two. Bring on the #gammonageddon.
Not to mention the fact that the campaign to rejoin the EU will receive a major boost. Good boost to the economy too with all that inheritance cash floating about. I’ve already got my eye on a new bike or two. Bring on the #gammonageddon.
Not another brexit thread.
The rim of the head of the penis is called a corona
Not another helmet thread.
It’ll have to choose something more effective if it only kills 5%.
It certainly would but a virus is probably the thing that will save the planet and it's ever expanding population and consumption.
For example, a very infectious virus with an incubation period of 4 months and a 90% fatality rate would certainly reduce the worlds population by a massive amount.
LOLz @ dazh.
Anyway, on a serious note, this is reminding me to go back and finish reading “Spillover” by David Quammen. It’s a bit weighty - very small print, lots of facty mcfactfaces but it’s an excellent read on how (various) viruses make the crossover from aminals to human beans. Might take a few gos to get through it.
Not another brexit thread.
it's the new godwin's law. maybe we could call it farage's law.
When it reaches the UK that could solve quite a few problems.
There was a very sketchy and vague news story lunch time about someone in a UK hotel who has fallen ill.
Over-reaction? Hard to judge, or rather people are poor judges. China has a population of 2Bn and about 100 people have died. To some people that's "a load of overblown bollocks".
On the other hand you've got a virus that contagious before symptoms shows and can kill people, that sounds pretty scary to me. China and the rest of the world have taken huge steps to avoid it spreading, if it works and it all goes away then the cynics will be proven right in their own minds anyway.
What's more scary than the thought of 5% of the global population being wiped out, is that it would only take us back to around 2014/15 levels 20% would take us back to around 2000.
It certainly would but a virus is probably the thing that will save the planet and it’s ever expanding population and consumption.
For example, a very infectious virus with an incubation period of 4 months and a 90% fatality rate would certainly reduce the worlds population by a massive amount.
Yup I very much believe a pandemic virus of some description will wipe out millions.
Wonder what the 'Recovered' stat is on there - would that be 'admitted to hospital, treated and discharged'? It seems like a small number compared to all the others which is at odds with the reports of 'many cases are mild' and 'mortality is relatively low'.
It certainly would but a virus is probably the thing that will save the planet and it’s ever expanding population and consumption.
Possibly - my money's on major volcanic event that lowers global temps by a couple of degrees for a couple of decades, as in the 'mini ice ages' of previous centuries.
what I want to know is why do all these viruses originate in China?
1996 avian h5n1
2002 sars
And MERS. Hold on...
Wasn't the Black Death from China too?
and now we have one named after a Mexican beer.
It's far worse than that
This stuff would make people wear brown corduroy flares, sleep on nylon sheets and eat cheese and pineapple off a cocktail stick. Some even covered their walls in large orangey coloured flowery wallpaper and drive Austin Allegros. Those of us that saw it will never forget, god help us all if it gets as bad as that!
Why didn't they return the bottles?
Anyway, on a serious note,
Who said I'm not being serious? Wonder if a Dustin Hoffman type figure is currently flying round China in a stolen helicopter? Also looking forward to the panic buying. It's going to be like the 2000 fuel crisis on steroids. Boris Johnson has no doubt got Cummings writing a Churchillian speech ready to be delivered from the COBRA bunker.
Sars was also a coronavirus, more lethal but less contagious, this bad boy has already infected more than sars did but killed significantly less; thus far....
Sars 8098 infects, 774 death
Corona >8000 infects, 170 deaths
Sars was also a coronavirus, more lethal but less contagious, this bad boy has already infected more than sars did but killed significantly less; thus far….
Sars 8098 infects, 774 death
Corona >8000 infects, 170 deaths
Without being too morbid, of the 8000 currently infected how many will die? Maybe it's less-lethal, or maybe there's hundreds of people on hospital wards right now who'll succumb to it in the days ahead.
I can't help but think I'm rooting for the virus.
You’ll change your tune Pjay when it’s your own kids and parents dying or in intensive care, as opposed to Chinese people.
Central London was a lot quieter today, noticeably less tourists - not a single coach load of Chinese tourists - and the first westerners I’ve ever seen wearing facemasks.
On an aside I'm getting lots of emails through now telling me of delays with various products from various suppliers.
You'll likely see a lot of knock on from this even if it turns out to be a lot of noise in the grand scheme of illnesses.
You’ll change your tune Pjay when it’s your own kids and parents dying or in intensive care, as opposed to Chinese people.
Yeah no doubt.
I take some comfort from the fact there are few elderly / sick people in my family, we've got 3 weeks worth of food (at a push) at home and wife is a Nurse so we've all got good hand washing drills etc.
Uup shipping cancelled Until further notice for an item from China for me.
good hand washing drills etc.
It's airborne vector isn't it? (very happy to be corrected as at best it's a vague notion picked up from an inference)
d wife is a Nurse so we’ve all got good hand washing drills etc.
Won’t save you - as your wife being a nurse makes her much more at risk - healthcare workers are always disproportionately hit.
Unless you have a supply of a few hundred disposable clean room suits, several wellies, lots long nitrile or better heavy duty rubber gloves, tape, a powered respirator, and the experience and the room (including a room you can run at negative pressure) to carry out BSL decontamination methods - you stand a good chance of getting it.
and the first westerners I’ve ever seen wearing facemasks.
Dont get me started on the facemasks. They're as useful as a chocolate teapot*
*trust me im a biologist
I am as well, the articles I’ve read state they are marginally effective under certain circumstances.
they are marginally effective under certain circumstances.
So is pissing into a headwind
Unless you have a supply of a few hundred disposable clean room suits, several wellies, lots long nitrile or better heavy duty rubber gloves, tape, a powered respirator, and the experience and the room (including a room you can run at negative pressure) to carry out BSL decontamination methods – you stand a good chance of getting it.
Noted, I'm off to Lidl to see what they've got in the middle aisle.
Dont get me started on the facemasks. They’re as useful as a chocolate teapot
I thought they had some efficacy in reducing droplet dispersal?
Isn't it some sort of zoonotic virus that has crossed from one species to another - I read somewhere it was from some sort of bat soup in the animal market?
So is pissing into a headwind
From a public health perspective, marginal gains in terms of individual risk can translate to thousands or tens of thousands of lives being saved.
Therefore, I would say that encouraging or mandating their use under certain scenarios may have merit - as long as the public are made aware that its for the greater good as opposed to making them impervious to the disease.
I read somewhere it was from some sort of bat soup in the animal market?
Must be true then.
Some sort of bat soup
Sechuan pepperstrelle?
Has anyone got a link to a serious artical explaining the effectiveness / ineffectiveness of face masks ? Someone in my office has just bought one !
My daughter's best friend from school made the news: she's out there with her mum and dad. Dad and daughter are Brits and are getting out of there soon - but the mum is a Chinese National so she has to stay.
Feel really sorry for them - but on the other hand I do wonder what the Chinese make of the whole "What do you mean quarantined? We're British don't you know? We're leaving." approach. Shouldn't a quarantine apply to everyone?
And the Aussies are shoving theirs in their detention centre on Christmas Island.
Hahahahahahahahhahah
****ing karma, the shock - I am truly and deeply shocked that a bunch of racist right wing nut bags would do that to their own.
Hahahahahahaarrr
Shouldn’t a quarantine apply to everyone?
Thought the plan was to lock all the Brits away for 14 days when they get back, so they're just quarantined over here rather than over there. Wonder if that means the crew of the plane will also get the same treatment?
Probably.
They’ll be drawing straws at an RAF mess somewhere.
MAMILS most at risk !
Unless you have a supply of a few hundred disposable clean room suits, several wellies, lots long nitrile or better heavy duty rubber gloves, tape, a powered respirator, and the experience and the room (including a room you can run at negative pressure) to carry out BSL decontamination methods – you stand a good chance of getting it.
I've got a roll of gorilla tape and 3 pairs of wellies. Thank god I'm under 60 and relatively fit, and if that's not enough then **** it, at least I won't have to come and sit in this bloody office any more.
My daughter’s best friend from school made the news: she’s out there with her mum and dad. Dad and daughter are Brits and are getting out of there soon – but the mum is a Chinese National so she has to stay.
Feel really sorry for them
Really all that's going to happen is that mum makes it home in a few weeks time. Lots of inconvenience for them, but it's not like China has suddenly become zombie central.
It certainly would but a virus is probably the thing that will save the planet and it’s ever expanding population
We already solved population growth, at least in the West. Deaths out number births massively and population is in rapid decline. Well below replacement levels that no society in history has ever recovered from. (And yet a housing shortage, hmm).
Birth control access, equal rights, education, living standards. They are the solutions. Not culling the vunerable.
Also ironically the biggest influencer increasing fertility rates has always been natural disasters and wars.
Really all that’s going to happen is that mum makes it home in a few weeks time.
They are in the Hubei region and have to travel to Wuhan to catch the plane. I'm sure they will all be fine, but the daughter is only 9. "We're leaving mummy behind" is a lot to deal with at that age.
Dont get me started on the facemasks. They’re as useful as a chocolate teapot*
*trust me im a biologist
Was your validation study looking at wearing by a non-infected person as a precaution; wearing by a (possibly unaware) infected person to reduce spread or he impact on population behaviour / hygiene just from seeing people wearing them? What was the efficacy (I don't have a value for teapot utility) - even a 10-20% reduction in infection probability would likely make it worthwhile on a macro scale, even if not worth it for the individual.
We already solved population growth, at least in the West. Deaths out number births massively and population is in rapid decline.
Someone forgot to tell the UK: (about 100,000 more births than deaths pa.)
https://www.statista.com/statistics/281981/live-births-in-the-united-kingdom-uk/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/281488/number-of-deaths-in-the-united-kingdom-uk/
If it’s acceptable to find it OK to not worry about the deaths of a certain group then can I hope that they weaponise it to affect the chubby ****ers out there? Obviously I’d feel bad about the loss of business for the ebike manufacturers.
What was the efficacy (I don’t have a value for teapot utility)
Chocolate Teapot scores 0.03 on the scolded testicles scale.
If it’s acceptable to find it OK to not worry about the deaths of a certain group then can I hope that they weaponise it to affect the chubby ****ers out there? Obviously I’d feel bad about the loss of business for the ebike manufacturers.
First they came for the chubby ebikes, and they said 'oh all right then, just don't make a mess'....
If it’s acceptable to find it OK to not worry about the deaths of a certain group then can I hope that they weaponise it to affect the chubby ****ers out there?
I mean we're doing alright on that front really, with heart disease, diabetes, and so on. Some do-gooders trying to undo all that work with their diets and Cto5k; but overall, fatties buying loads of taxed items and dying soon after retirement is beneficial to the rest of us.
Coronavirus has a mortality rate a bit above a normal winter influenza epidemic. It's highly unfortunate but it's not going to be as serious as SARS or heaven forbid another Spanish Flu pandemic (1918) estimated to have killed 3-5% of the worlds population.
The real upside if there is a global pandemic is all those people who manage to take multiple weeks of paid sick leave per year every year will either be killed as they are susceptible to everything; or fired as they are exposed as fakers.
Can I emphasise I was joking. Some of my best friends are strangers to the salad bar and beat the crap out of me on rides. No ebikes involved either.
Edit and in Weymouth we’ve been here before.
Someone forgot to tell the UK: (about 100,000 more births than deaths pa.)
30% of UK births were from parents not born in the UK. Who to prove my other point still have fertility levels below replacement.