[Closed] What's the evidence that North Korea is a threat?

Just to add to the evidence that NK don't have an ICBM launch capability:
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2017/07/north-korea-missile-tests-170706081545433.html

Noam Chomsky has spoken extensively about this, the rhetoric (about them being a threat) mainly spouted by the media isnt even agreed upon by the American public (in polls).

So, i've been youtubing loads of interviews with NK defectors, quite interesting, I'd encourage people to do the same.

One common theme though, is that essentially the current rhetoric of trump is pretty much what KJU wants, ie legitimisation that they are a nuclear power, so that it'll lead to a road of appeasement.

So while it is technically true they are a nuclear power, i still don't see them as much of an external threat due to KJU's desire for appeasement and continuation of the regime. So, unless trump keeps up the current war of words and they stumble into war, I think that is really a bit of a side question, direct confrontation is a silly route..

But more importantly, the second common theme that's noticeable. Is that inside north korea there isn't actually a communist system any longer, it collapsed years ago, in it's place there's a nascent (black/grey) market system that the people essentially rely on to survive, and external information/knowledge of the outside does reach the average North Korean via usb drives, and the likes of mobiles and cheap dvd players that can read them. If anything is ever going to solve the problem of north korea, it is through this system that it'll happen, via flooding the country with information and goods.

Essentially, embargo's and sanctions are a stupid idea. The route to solving the problem will come from within, so there should be a campaign to encourage this and give the people the means to develop a resistance, something that is more difficult for dirt poor isolated people to achieve.

Isolation is completely counter productive, The opposite should be happening.

Open up NK allow the outside world in and the Kim dynasty will not survive it, lift the embargo's and encourage the black market trade into NK as much as possible.

Not saying that it won't be messy, but an internal uprising will see the dynasty crumble quickly imo, particularly if the people are armed with goods and the knowledge to enable them to be successful.

Clearly i make that sound simple and it's far more complex than that, but ye get the drift I'm sure.

Open up NK allow the outside world in

Sure but by far the greater part of that problem comes from the DPRK itself; it's the regieme that is closed, it's not a closed system because of sanctions though this doesn't help of course.

I know someone who spent a lot of time there in the past as a contractor building fibre optic plants (this was quite a while ago now; I'm not sure if the work he did would even be possible now). He used to tell us about the degree to which his presence in the country was extremely tightly controlled and managed, what he could and couldn't say, where he could and couldn't go etc. He described it as close to being Orwell's vision in '1984' as you could find in the real world.

Aye but there's clearly a market system in place at the moment, not saying it'll be easy, but it where attention should be focused, there are routes in and out of NK.

Apparently under Obama they had £3million allocated to getting info into NK, and absolute pittance. This has ended under trump.

It's should be £3billion not £3million put into this kinda thing and it might start to make a dent.

Interesting bit of history on North Korea..

“What hardly any Americans know or remember,” University of Chicago historian Bruce Cumings writes in his book “The Korean War: A History,” “is that we carpet-bombed the north for three years with next to no concern for civilian casualties.”

How many Americans, for example, are aware of the fact that U.S. planes dropped on the Korean peninsula more bombs — 635,000 tons — and napalm — 32,557 tons — than during the entire Pacific campaign against the Japanese during World War II?

How many Americans know that “over a period of three years or so,” to quote Air Force Gen. Curtis LeMay, head of the Strategic Air Command during the Korean War, “we killed off … 20 percent of the population”?

Twenty. Percent. For a point of comparison, the Nazis exterminated 20 percent of Poland’s pre-World War II population. According to LeMay, “We went over there and fought the war and eventually burned down every town in North Korea.”

Every. Town. More than 3 million civilians are believed to have been killed in the fighting, the vast majority of them in the north.

https://theintercept.com/2017/05/03/why-do-north-koreans-hate-us-one-reason-they-remember-the-korean-war/

have we done this angle?

tin foil hat on....

[url= http://www.theeventchronicle.com/finanace/three-countries-left-without-rothschild-central-bank/# ]WORLD BANKS[/url]

EDIT: and didn't Obama start up negotiations with cuba? - I kinda lost track what happened there?

Time to dust off the love bombs.

km79 - Member
Time to dust off the love bombs.

Better than real bombs.

Or we could just carpet bomb them as per footflaps post, and after we're ran out of targets, we can start bombing the dams and flooding the valleys, again...

Apparently under Obama they had £3million allocated to getting info into NK,

The CIA spent more trying to influence the 1948 italian election!!

anagallis_arvensis - Member
Apparently under Obama they had £3million allocated to getting info into NK,
The CIA spent more trying to influence the 1948 italian election!!

Yip, idea is right, implementation is pitiful.

I dont think it is the current NK sabre rattling that is going to be the motivator for China to "do something".

The NK leadership and military may be fist pumping because they can lob a couple of missiles and expect them to hit the intended target. However, what will "encourage" China is if other currently non nuclear states show movement to developing credible interceptors, delivery systems and weapons.

Let's be honest, most of the region has the GDP & technical no-how to whip NKs efforts.

That would right bollocks up Chinese economic and territorial ambitions and they probably know that if proliferation begins, it will be impossible to stop.

It seems to me that it's China that has backed itself into a corner.

NK hasn't really changed from the day the war paused and the Chinese know they have the most to loose (if, and hoping) no shooting war takes place.

If the north walked into the south would anyone actually go to war though? Potentially very messy. Maybe lots of shouting would be all that happened. The commie threat that was a worry in the 50's doesn't exist anymore so no one will see an invasion as that so much as a bit of aggressive land grabbing. Of course we know what happened when that was ignored I the 30's but the cost will be seen to be higher now and our attitudes to war have changed. Hmmm

Aye but there's clearly a market system in place at the moment, not saying it'll be easy, but it where attention should be focused, there are routes in and out of NK

It's an interesting idea. Black Markets always tend to appear though where conventional market economies are not functioning; they aren't really 'markets' as such, just a way for people to avoid starving. They are extremely localised and tend to work off the back of networks and paticularlistic connections. These are important because it is how the exchanges stay out of view of the authorities.

a bit of aggressive land grabbing

Oh well in that case then for sure no one will care. Apart from maybe everyone living in South Korea of course. For them it might be a bit, you know, shit having a totalitarian ultra Stalinist dictatorship take them over.

If the north walked into the south would anyone actually go to war though?

I hope we would. Turning a blind eye to that sort of thing never ends well. It didn't in 1939 when we turned a blind eye over Czechoslovakia, nor any other time in history when 'land grabbing' happened and everyone turned a blind eye. Land grabbing is usually followed by some form of 'cleansing' wether it be ethnic, cultural, religions or just to wipe out those you've just invaded.

I suspect NK doesn't want to invade SK - I think it's more about NK wanting to be taken seriously as a world player. They've observed how the possession of nukes suddenly makes people sit up and listen so they've followed that path. Having said that I don't think he and the regime is harmless. They've been cut off from the rest of the world for so long who know's what their mental state is, and we (the rest of the world) should do everything possible to prevent them from getting nukes.

The stories of people who have escaped that regime are truly horrific and yet again the world is standing idly sacrificing people until we deem them to be a direct threat to our lives then we'll go in when there is little chance of resolving the issue peacefully and the only option is conflict and we'll make a hash of it as we always do. It's the same old script playing out in front of our eyes yet again, like watching a slow motion car crash.

wobbliscott - Member
and we (the rest of the world) should do everything possible to prevent them from getting nukes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea

Saddam Hussein kept boasting that he had weapons of mass destruction.

That worked out well.

BigJohn - Member
Saddam Hussein kept boasting that he had weapons of mass destruction.

That worked out well.

Hence NK's desire for nukes, and particularly nuclear armed ICBMs.

Anyhow, as I've said, the nukes are inconsequential, imo, to what should be getting done to solve the problem. An invasion isn't going to happen, so rather than sabre rattling, they should be looking into practical ways of enacting regime change internally.

they should be looking into practical ways of enacting regime change internally.

They tried all that against Castro. Didnae work.

The Chinese will never depose NK leadership, it would be seen as doing the Septics bidding which would be seen as a HUGE loss of face. They were quite happy for the Yanks and DPRK to have a slanging match but as Trump is pursing the Nixon Madman principle the Chinese have backed themselves into a corner.

Any missile launch towards Guam the US have said they will intercept, it won't be the Alaskan interceptors as they won't have the range. It will be the Aegis Cruiser SM-3 missiles with THAAD at Guam (SK THAAD will be out of physical range but the radars could provide telemetry). Finally it'll be last ditch patriot battery "Hail Mary" defence.

Should a missile hit Guam, all bets are off, the war plan will be enacted, if they are intercepted then it'll be Presidents decision according to SECDEF.

NK have huge reserves of Sarin, VX and other lovelies as well as crude Nukes. Seoul would be devastated by conventional artillery and rocket attack. Unfortunately for SK they are now a cork bobbing in the political maelstrom and rapidly being swirled to the atomic falls. If I was NK I wouldn't bother trying to hit Japan or SK with them but I'd plant them at strategic points, bridges/cities and let the invading forces overrun them before detonating, either by suicide squad and/or timer.

Incidentally it would appear that the latest boosts to the NK ICBM's come from a Ukrainian rocket factory in Ukrainian held territory as they are desperate for cash to fight off Uncle Vladimir. Either that or Uncle Vladimir has played a blinder and made it look like it came from there. The US are royally peed off with the Ukraine for this so I can see US support being watered down.

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nk will attack no one.

Saddam Hussein kept boasting that he had weapons of mass destruction.

Correction, he did have them. Ask the Kurds. Didn't the same weapons turn up in Syria recently?

He had them and he boasted he did. Same as Kim Jong Un. Same outcome maybe?

geetee1972 - Member
Saddam Hussein kept boasting that he had weapons of mass destruction.
Correction, he did have them. Ask the Kurds

That was in 1988, the iraq invasion was in 2003.

I'd be willing to bet that, as with the Argentinian conscript army in the Falklands, the malnourished ragtag NK soldiers would throw down their guns and run like hell at the first sign of a real SK or US soldier heading their way.

There was a documentary on the other day about life in NK but it was different to previous ones I'd seen, much like seosamh77 saw on YouTube this was an eye-opener that many NK people are starting to push back on the tight control of the state.

What surprised me the most was people arguing with and even pushing around the NK military police trying to enforce some of the rules (like you can't own a business and women couldn't wear trousers until the law was changed recently).

However whist there may be cracks appearing I can't see a regime changing happening any time soon, a lot of people's fear there is based on neighbours etc. informing on them, there's so much mistrust of each other that forming dissident groups would be a huge risk.

Also, even if the Kim regime fell surely they'd only be replaced by a military dictatorship which would probably be even more unstable. Democracy is such an alien concept to the NK people I can't see it happening any time soon, it would take a couple of generations to get past all the brain-washing and fear.

It'll be an alien concept, but another thing was that of the 30,000 defectors there is in south korea, they reckon a lot of them were motivated to defect due to exposure to foreign media. Aspiration to better yourself is a natural human inclination, particularly when you know there is something better.

as for taking a long time, dunno, the fall of the soviet union probably looked highly unlikely just a few years before it happened.

Another thing that was noticeable was, of the ones I watched, they all seemed fairly intelligent and well educated, obviously not in the wider world, but they certainly weren't stupid. so I think external ideas would take like wildfire if there was more exposure, not that they would agree with everything about the external world, their views on capitalist korean culture are also quite interesting.

what was the doc you watched, btw?

I can't remember, I think something like "Inside North Korea", either on PBS or Discovery, I thought it was one I'd watched before (that just covers the generic everything's grim and tightly controlled side) so missed the start.

Edit: Just to add I do think it's a good idea to spend more (time and money) trying to open up NK via the backdoor (poor phrasing...) but at a certain level I'm sure the regime would have a big crackdown (well before the £3 billion) and at £3 million level I think Kim will have enough ICBM-mountable nukes to be a real danger. From Kim's perspective if the West was overtly destabilising your regime and you knew you probably couldn't even flee to China you may as well press the button as a last straw to see what happened...

Maybe the USA and her allies could mount a carefully coordinated air attack on every single North Korean installation and hit them with flour bombs? That would send out a bit of a warning to the idiot in charge.

I'm not totally sure that an unknown white powder dropping on every military unit in NK would be the best way to engender quiet reflection in them.

It would highlight all the ones they don't know about though

The US are royally peed off with the Ukraine for this so I can see US support being watered down.

Perhaps Trump's former campaign manager could have a word.

N Korea is not planning to bomb anyone. They've seen what happens to other dictatorships when the US wants shot of them, so the young leader is trying to say don't mess with my regime, as I have the capacity to nuke Japan or S Korea (unlike say Saddam or Gaddafi) if you plan to invade and get rid of me.
So I don't think anyone is going to nuke anyone else for the moment.
However, the long-term consequences are pretty awful, as Trump will respond by commissioning a new nuclear programme (soon to be followed by Russia, China, Israel, probably the UK) which will lead to classic escalation. Putin admitted by mistake on Russian TV that they are developing a frankly terrifying nuclear weapon which could wipe out the entire Eastern side of the US. Meanwhile the US (thanks to the dominance of the military industrial complex) has been developing submarine-based nukes which can attack any city in the world, with terrifying force.
Throw Iran into the mix and it's just another excuse for everyone to escalate.

And this is how the world ends, this is how the world ends, this is how the world ends.

N Korea is not planning to bomb anyone. They've seen what happens to other dictatorships when the US wants shot of them, so the young leader is trying to say don't mess with my regime,

The problem with that is that when the rest of the world refuses to just bow down, there's a risk of being backed into a corner by his own rhetoric.

It is mostly sabre rattling and a size comparison contest, but NK can never be sure how the the world and Trump will react and they've just pissed off their biggest supporter. Carrying on as we are isn't really an option.

You have to look at this in the context of regional geopolitics and China, particularly their expansionism ambitions potentially being thwarted by having US nukes on their doorstep. Kim/NK is critically dependant upon China - and the will of China to impose UN sanctions, or more likely to use their veto to simply ignore it.

The USA has to learn to let dictators live in peace. If they hadn't invaded Iraq, and toppled Libya, young Kim wouldn't feel the need to escalate in the first place.
So many of our contemporary problems come from the fact the US has seriously mismanaged it's role of "Global Policeman", and in particular the short-sighted Western desire to "spread democracy" (although this is normally just a sham argument to get the electorate to go along with invading other countries).
When Blighty had an empire, we mismanaged that, but the big gamechanger is nuclear weapons. People have largely forgotten about them since the ending of the Cold War, but in the last 20 years the US in particular has been busy developing a new generation of hydrogen bombs. These things are so powerful they can destroy whole countries, never mind cities.

I can't really see a way out of Armageddon, I think it is inevitable, it's just a question of when. But I don't think it will come down to N Korea; I think the Middle East is where the action will be (as predicted by the good book).

These things are so powerful they can destroy whole countries, never mind cities.

Got some info?

My understanding is that modern nukes tend to be lower yield generally but with much better accuracy. The multi megaton city killers aren't really used anymore instead they use a number of smaller warheads to provide the same effect with better precision

These things are so powerful they can destroy whole countries, never mind cities.

I'm not sure Lichtenstein really counts...

@richmtb
This [url= https://www.thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2017/03/20/us-first-strike-advantage-heightens-risk-of-nuclear-war-polanyi.html ]article[/url] by John Polyani summarises recent developments.
Putin's development of a megaton nuke is the big game-changer (in response to the submarine, more targetted nukes you mention).
The risk in the current situation is that the US responds by developing its own megaton nukes.

esselgruntfuttock - Member

I'm sure the Yanks have something 'science fictiony', Lasers & electromagnetic railguns maybe?

The Reagan administration managed to bring down the old Soviet Union by producing a couple of dodgy videos, making the commies bankrupt themselves trying to keep up with a non-existent weapons programme.

Not sure if it would work a second time round though, even with a numbnuts like The Crazy Fat Kid...

Saw this on Twitter...

[img] [/img]

What I dont understand is why its ok for current nuclear powers to develop "better" nukes. Its also ok for Israel, India and ****stan to develop them and now have them. But Iran, NK its a big no no.

What I dont understand is why its ok for current nuclear powers to develop "better" nukes. Its also ok for Israel, India and ****stan to develop them and now have them. But Iran, NK its a big no no.

I don't think anyone thinks its Ok for any of them to have nuclear weapons but they have them now and they aint going to give them up.

NK having them in itself is worrying enough as there would be less failsafes in place to stop there launch, say what you like about Trump but he would not be able to arbitrarily launch a nuclear attack on anyone, I suspect that Dear Leader wouldn't have that in place!
And I have said this many times before, just as China ( and some Russian scientists) sold its nuclear tech to ****stan for cash I'm sure NK is also keen on selling this for hard currency also.

say what you like about Trump but he would not be able to arbitrarily launch a nuclear attack on anyone,

actually, its one thing he does have the unilateral authority to order.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Command_Authority

scary, huh.