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I do wonder if before 24hr rolling news, social media and a high degree of digitisation of data, we could have had an epidemic such as Covid and not really noticed as such, outside medical circles. And statisticians would have noticed, but 6-12 months down the line and far to late to bang any drums about it. That ONS data about the flu in 2000 a few post above is interesting; it talks of 48,000 ‘extra’ deaths over a winter. Around 43,000 deaths in the U.K. have been attributed to COVID so far I think, so broadly comparable numbers. I had just started worked for the NHS during 2000, and recall no fuss or fluster about those numbers. I certainly don’t recall it being a big deal in the press, although my attention priorities were somewhat different back then.
I was also amazed at the excess deaths in 2000. I remember that year vividly and the news was about Millennium Bugs, not Flu but we have to remember Covid didn't really take hold in the UK until Spring, and the number of 'excess deaths' in the UK this year has been much higher than the number of confirmed Covid tests, whilst they were originally classifying anyone who'd ever had Covid as a covid death, even months after testing which might have had a small effect on numbers they're also not testing people who die at home or care homes for Covid postmortem. I believe the excess deaths figure for 2020 is in the 60k range so far, and we haven't reached Winter 20/21 yet.
I do wonder if before 24hr rolling news, social media and a high degree of digitisation of data, we could have had an epidemic such as Covid and not really noticed as such, outside medical circles.
I think you may be hitting a nail on its head there.
However with Covid not quite being flu, it might have been news.
SARS didn't really make many peoples radar though, despite being reported through regular news channels. Obviously there was also the "didn't happen here, not interested" factor.
It would have been big news once the hospitals stopped all admissions and AEs had to shut. Such things were widely covered on the radio, TV and newspapers at the time.
The proportion of the population over 65 was smaller (15.1%) then it is now (18%) so there would have been a small reduction in impact.
There have been Flu epidemics in the last 60 years or so that have killed many more than Covid - tens of millions - but I suspect figures were largely retrospective. I strongly suspect that any more than 20 years or so ago we would have been unaware until after that event when recorded deaths were analysed.
One thing I think has changed over time is peoples attitudes to hardship. Our grandparents properly suffered in the Second World War. They would have had parents / grandparents that suffered in the First World War before that.
Younger generations now (including my middle aged self) have less experience of a direct problem of any magnitude and our expectations are so much higher.
p7eaven
I’m actually feeling quite nostalgic for a time when there was no outlet for all the idiots and conspiracy theorists.
I think more in terms of ‘inlet’....
I obviously need to [i]become smarter[/i] cos none of that made any sense to me.
The rolling news thing is significant. In 2001 rolling news had been about for quite a few years but viewing figures and engagement was minimal. Come The 11th September the whole world became glued to it and hasnt been able to look away since, me included. I think there's a fallacy attached to engaging with rolling news, one that makes us feel that because we are 'better informed' we can somehow have an influence on events which we obviously can't. All it does is increase anxiety and pushes governments and institutions into more tactical rather than strategic responses, a bit like 'In play' betting.
The image of Defence Minister John Knott giving out his daily briefings during the Falklands conflict came into my mind as well, I dont think we'd have seen the smorgasbord of actors we see at todays daily briefings.
We'd have all been wearing masks from day one of covid being announced as a pandemic as well, there wouldn't have been the endless debate about their efficacy (would have saved a few pages on the Coronavirus thread as well, had it existed then!). I too remember TV being described as 'The idiot box', that was from a time when our brains could still detect idiocy, a time before our brains were completely replaced by computers, tablets and 'smart' phones.
"I obviously need to become smarter cos none of that made any sense to me."
Perhaps you do Dez because I understood that perfectly. The media hat to provide an 'inlet' for all those BTL 'opinions'. I remember a time pre 9/11 when Sunday mornings were about popping down to the newsagents to pick up the Sunday Times, the Observer or the Sunday Telegraph, spreading it out over the living room floor and digesting a good portion of the contents throughout the rest of the week.
Now I (we) click on numerous newspaper sites multiple times throughout the day. Imformation, (albeit skewed by editorial bias) has been replaced by a million opinions. If I click on the Telegraph website because a headline has garnered my curiosity I come face to face with a paywall, where the information is occluded by a 'become a subscriber' message, though the BTL comments are left open for all to see. Opinion literally Trumping information.
Similarly with BBC's Question Time, where in the interest of balance, it has become important to represent the gamut of public opinion and 'feelings' irrespective of their relation to fact, reflecting the BBC's struggle to keep up (or down) with the changing face of digital news media.
OK yeah, but when I said idiots and conspiracy theorists, that's who I actually meant.
ie. not [i]all[/i] the information.
I strongly suspect that any more than 20 years or so ago we would have been unaware until after that event when recorded deaths were analysed.
No, it would have been very obvious that there was a pandemic.
There have been Flu epidemics in the last 60 years or so that have killed many more than Covid – tens of millions – but I suspect figures were largely retrospective. I strongly suspect that any more than 20 years or so ago we would have been unaware until after that event when recorded deaths were analysed.
Google suggests the pandemics of the 50s and 60s killed around 1 million each. We've already hit that figure despite being quick to lock down and introduce unprecedented restrictions across the world. We also have almost three quarters of a century's worth of medical science on our side. I guess it would be difficult to estimate the impact of the hypothetical scenario where we had 'not noticed' and carried on as is, but it might be reasonable to assume the death toll to be far higher than it is, and still with a long way to go as it burns through the population.
Even with a 99% survival rate, if only half of the population were to catch it, we'd see around 40 million deaths. That's Spanish Flu territory, albeit with a larger population.
The faster it spreads, the more overwhelmed health services become, the more that survival rate is likely to go down. And further down again the further you go back in history, before advancements in technology.
It seems a slim chance it would have gone unnoticed.
You’re right I’m thinking of earlier flu pandemics - 100 years ago 20-50 million and then late 50s and 60s 1-4 million. Still in some ways had this happened at an earlier time it could well have spread more slowly due to everyone travelling so much more these days (at least until 6 months anyway...)
Well, we did have a fairly massive flu outbreak in 1999/2000.
This ONS page says
Very high levels of flu were seen in 1999/00, when there were 48,000 excess winter deaths
And 2017, but nobody noticed:
The number of winter deaths last year the hit highest level in more than 40 years after the failure of last year's flu jab. There were an estimated 50,100 excess winter deaths in England and Wales in 2017/18 - the highest recorded since winter 1975/76, figures from the Office for National Statistics show.
And 2015, but nobody noticed:
Between December 2014 and March 2015 there were 44,000 excess winter deaths, 2.5 times higher than the record low of the previous winter, and the highest number since the winter of 1999/2000
I’m not looking at any more figures for deaths - it’s depressing!
Covid would probably have been less of a problem 20 or 40 years ago on the following counts:
- less devolution so easier for the government to take a decision and implement it
- same goes for the “Metro” mayors
- more people would have read newspapers vs relying on social media and algorithmic echo chambers for their news
- aside from David Icke, the “reach” of conspiracy theorists was a lot lower
- mainstream media was less focussed on monetising clicks - the news outlets didn’t need to “make” news in order to have something to fill rolling 24 hour news coverage. And yes, CNN did exist then but we didn’t have multiple rolling news channels competing with each other.
- personal hygiene was better, particularly hand washing. In 20 years we seem to have gone from some blokes not washing their hands after a pee to most blokes not bothering, and an increasing number of people (based on the offices I’ve worked in) who take a dump whilst on the phone and don’t even wash their hands after that.
- facts and logic actually trumped emotions and “feelings” in public debate
The main difference for me though would be the difference in numbers of narcissists / influencers etc and more people looking out for each other.
I remember a time pre 9/11 when Sunday mornings were about popping down to the newsagents to pick up the Sunday Times
Yesterday? Still do after my dose of Broadcasting House on R4.
The moon landing hoax conspiracy theory started shortly after the event. That took a little while to gain traction AFAIK, but it did. That was pre-internet.
And there was a lot of misinformation spread about HIV in the 80s.
BS can reach the masses faster but there have always been people willing to help it on its journey.
The NHS would have coped well because it was run by people who knew their business. That collective memory has been lost now that the NHS is run by consultants.