[Closed] What are we to make of the UKIP surge?

I'd volunteer that it comes under the section of "a bit shit".
I think everyone's a bit fed up with the major parties and wanted to give them the finger. At least I hope. UKIP with actual power is terrifying.

The mainstream parties are now completely disconnected from the people they are supposed to represent. They exist in a bubble totally detached from the daily concerns of normal people.

Nigel Farage, as Alex Salmond before him, recognises that we are all sick to the back teeth of politicians representing the interests of bankers, press barons, multinationals and private monopolies before giving a second thought to the great unwashed.

Farage has simply pointed this out, and said vote for me because I'm not them! And its worked. Its a two-fingers-to-the-establishment vote.

The fact that the BNP got twice as many votes than the Lib Dems (who only got 350 votes) should be a pretty clear indication of where Nick Clegg has lead them. Electoral oblivion awaits...

The Greens have more councillors than UKIP. Media only going nuts over the right wing xenophobes though.

Though if UKIP become the established, though totally ineefective, party of protest, won't they become part of the establishment?

The really disturbing long-term effect they will have wil be to drag the tories still further to the right...

BBC polling expert John Curtice has been looking in more depth at UKIP's success. He says the party "does better in places with relatively few graduates; it does worse in places with many graduates. This appears to be the sharpest difference of all." In addition, UKIP does out well in places "with a relatively high level of people who claim a religious identity" and those "with more older people".

what a suprise!

I think it's just protest voting. They won't do anywhere as well in the next General Election (or at least I hope not, BNP-lite is not something I'd ever want to see being taken seriously).

Hmmm a vulgar, populist party doing well in areas of lower education. who would've thought?

I find Farage quite engaging and amusing, don't like his policies though and the muppets his party attract are plain scary.

I can't see the two main parties managing to change themselves because as binners points out thay have lost touch with reality. Interesting times ahead, it it is a hot summer watch out for riots in your neighberhood.

My view-

When you try to flush a giant sheit down an old toilet, it often comes back up closer to the rim. If you ignore it and flush again, it goes away.

UKIP = poo.
Toilet = britain.
Flushing = common sense.

Don't worry, it's only 25% of the electorate who are fruitcakes and closet racists.

I see it as a reaction to the three parties (no longer all 'main') who are converging on the centre ground with over-chummy leadership. That's to say Dave's cronies from his Bullingdon days, and a Labour leadership either descended from Keir Hardie or conceived on the Aldermaston Marches.

I'm putting all my money into canned food and shotguns.

Voting someone onto a town council, as a kind of yaaa-boo ya bastards to Westminster is one thing. Voting them in to run the country, another thing entirely.

There's not a cat in hells chance they'll get anywhere near that kind of vote in a general election! As they'll actually get there policies scrutinised. And at that point everyone will realise, if they hadn't already, that they're a bunch of foaming-at-the-mouth fruit loops

And I agree with Pigface - I think we can take inner city riots as a given this summer. As the people who don't bother to vote express their disenchantment with the neo-liberal consensus. Its back to the 80's! Hurray!

I think everyone's a bit fed up with the major parties and wanted to give them the finger. At least I hope. UKIP with actual power is terrifying.

THIS
Farage was on the radio this morning praising Thatcher's economic policies whilst rambling on about the Westminster elite - as if he is some sort of outsider man of the people- it is spin of which Blair and Campbell should be proud.

How on earth the privately educated ex investment banker ex Tory party member manages to play the role of a non extablishment "outside" figure is beyond me
He is basically Thatcher with more charm and zenophobia/little englander.
I dont see any major difference between him and the opther parties tbh beyond rabid hatered of Europe and a desire to remove foreigners [ but probably not his german born wife]

I suspect the publicity of showing their policies will harm them as they are clearly to the right of the Tories yet somewhow have cross part appeal

[quote=slowoldgit ]
I see it as a reaction to the three parties (no longer all 'main') who are converging on the centre ground
Only they're not converging on the centre ground at all. They are all moving further right and this will only encourage them.

edsbike - Member

The Greens have more councillors than UKIP. Media only going nuts over the right wing xenophobes though.

The rare valid point in its natural environment!

Business opportunity for McMoonter in building timber hideaway lodges for the impending disintegration of society as we know it! 😯

Agree with Binners. And, as a long term Liberal I hate Clegg with a passion that I have only previously held for leaders of the Tory party or Labour who for decades have been disconnected with the business of governing the country and looking after the people of this country, and more focused on being seen as the good guys in focus groups. A curse on all their houses.

@ scotroutes: If you're correct, that leaves room for a traditional pro-worker labour party too.

And I agree with Pigface - I think we can take inner city riots as a given this summer.

Yep no bread and circuses this year

I totally agree, UKIP winning votes in local council and previously euro elections doesn't really mean anything

It doesn't help that the tabloids have been running a racist agenda for the last few years, with 'blame immigrants' for everything headlines. This has pretty much left the door wide open for a BNP-lite party like UKIP.

LOL @ the elitists suggesting that university somehow makes your vote worth more.....
Intelligence isn't the sole preserve of the well-off university going, bank of mum and dad raiding middle class you know.

Riots? Probably not. Many of those who rioted last time are still inside, and despite there being good reasons for rioting, I don't think it will happen.

wrecker - Member

LOL @ the elitists suggesting that university somehow makes your vote worth more.....

Where was that?

[quote=slowoldgit ]@ scotroutes: If you're correct, that leaves room for a traditional pro-worker labour party too.
Maybe. Are the existing parties going that way because it reflects the mood of society, or are the "pro-worker" voters simply not voting because there is no one to represent them?

LOL @ the elitists suggesting that university somehow makes your vote worth more.....

I don't think anyone has suggested that.

Intelligence isn't the sole preserve of the well-off university going, bank of mum and dad raiding middle class you know.

and intelligence is no judge of character either

I don't want to turn this into a another spat, but the way I've read some comments they certainly at least insinuate that the thickos have voted for UKIP because....they're thickos (having not been to uni)

well research says thickos [if not having a degree makes you thick]and the old are more likely to vote for them...it is fair to say no one proased them for this

Was it intelectually snobbery - a little bit for sure but not to the extent you claimed.

I think the thicko's are still voting BNP, and going to EDL rallies

UKIP are proof that you don't necessarily have to be thick to be bigoted and small minded. Though obviously it helps. In fact, a large rump of the Tory party are proof of that. And some of them have had the best education money can buy

Research has found that education is associated with more liberal opinions on a number of issues, but there is uncertainty about the scope and interpretation of these findings.

http://ijpor.oxfordjournals.org/content/14/2/141.abstract

So possibly you'll get less BNP/UKIP support amongst graduates...

UKIP are proof that you don't necessarily have to be thick to be bigoted and small minded. [b]Though obviously it helps[/b]

🙂

And the sad irony is that UKIP will sully the reputation of the genuine cross-party opposition to the EU.

Don't forget the Tories have upset the police, fire, nhs and GPs, and the military. That's a lot of middle-class protest vote right there. The shopkeepers in my small town all have permanent SALE signs. They probably talk with each other at the golf club.

Interesting times: I think Dave has to learn to listen in order to survive, or he can continue to believe it's a mid-term protest.

This is of course a bit of a nightmare, we now have a load more right wing nutters in local government, which is where a hell of a lot of stuff that should get done, doesn't.

Even when they are all in agreement councils are purgatory, full of self interested cronyism.

It's really hard to see how throwing a UKIP councillor into the mix is going to help at all.

The Greens have more councillors than UKIP. Media only going nuts over the right wing xenophobes though.

Pretty sure that won't be the case at the end of today.

Though Cameron can always rely on Miliband snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, and Clegg and the LDs being hated even more than the tories and so acting as their airbag once again.

If all else fails, launch another assualt on the poor and vunerable...

He is basically Thatcher with more charm and zenophobia/little englander.

He hates Bhuddists?

I find Farrage quite disturbing; I mistrust his jovial bonhomie and empty rhetoric. He reminds me of my late old school friend who was clever but a complete failure at school and joined the RAF as a humble Aircraftman then grew older with some extremely right-wing opinions. He also had the same worryingly schizophrenic inability to gauge his approach to other people.

They are the right wing protest vote equivalent of the Lib Dems. Let's hope people learn from history and don't put UKIP in a position to influence who is in power.

If all else fails, launch another assualt on the poor and vunerable...

I think you'll find we're in the middle of a five year war with them. The Tories main strategy seems to be 'make the poor suffer and hope no one notices we're screwing the economy into the ground'.

The coalition could do a lot worse than to find a new chancellor of the exchequer.

binners - Member
I think the thicko's are still voting BNP, and going to EDL rallies

UKIP are proof that you don't necessarily have to be thick to be bigoted and small minded. Though obviously it helps. In fact, a large rump of the Tory party are proof of that. And some of them have had the best education money can buy

I think this is mixing education with intelligence, Whitehall is currently full of examples that definitively prove that a good education does not in any way correlate with intellect.

I think the Tories knew from the off they were a one term government. Hence the haste in dismantling the welfare state, privatising the NHS and completely buggering up the education system

But that was before they've realised just how skull-crushingly useless Ed Milliband actually is. They couldn't possibly, even in their wildest dreams, imagine that someone could be so vacuously clueless as to utterly fail to capitalise on the hundreds of open goals presented to him on a daily basis, while he sits sucking his thumb.

I reckon the Tories and Millibean will get an absolutely equal share of the vote. The lib dems will be wiped out, UKIP won't win a single seat, and we'll enter a world of electoral gridlock

They couldn't possibly, even in their wildest dreams, imagine that someone could be so vacuously clueless as to utterly fail to capitalise on the hundreds of open goals presented to him on a daily basis, while he sits sucking his thumb.

you are assuming that labour actually want to follow the tories into power

Meanwhile...

http://tyneandwear.sky.com/news/article/65267/ukip-postal-vote-investigation-allegations-of-electoral-fraud

I think this is mixing education with intelligence, Whitehall is currently full of examples that definitively prove that a good education does not in any way correlate with intellect.

Thanks for putting this better than I could.

The issue really is that Westminster is full of people beavering away at maintaining the status quo, whilst everywhere else in the country everyone is aware that what needs changing is in fact the status quo. In fact a good slogan would be a vote for UKIP/BNP/Green/(Fill in your own minority party) is a vote for change.

Unfortunately, what you will hear from the sleazeballs as the days go on is how lthis ocal election result is actually affirming their position, which it self evidently isn't.

It amazes me how the Dave and Nick, (whose names I shall truncate for the sake of brevity)..... how Dick take the fact that neither won anything like a majority as a vote in favour of some of the most far reaching, extreme and radical policies, as opposed to a vote for consensus politics is completely beyond me.

I reckon the Tories and Millibean will get an absolutely equal share of the vote. The lib dems will be wiped out, UKIP won't win a single seat, and we'll enter a world of electoral gridlock

One thing I've been saying for a while (even for the last election), is that I can see UK ending up with a Left-Right grand coalition like Germany had the first time Merkel won.

Obviously Labour are fortunate in that they need 3% less popular vote to get same number of seats as Conservatives. So the gridlock would be Ed trying to force Cameron to stand down, with tories on 1% more popular vote, but labour with more seats. Merkel managed it, but she was like a German Thatcher. I can't see Ed having the guts to succeed in that.

Tories just need to be pro Scottish independence.

Another perspective

http://wingsoverscotland.com/why-labour-are-to-blame-for-ukip/

I particularly liked this bit

A bit like when there’s someone breathing right down your neck on a crowded train, that sent the Tories shuffling ever further along the political spectrum in an attempt to put some distance between them and their opponents, only to be confounded as Labour doggedly matched them step for step, constantly pressing their manifesto-groins into the Tories’ rear like some sort of gruesome sex pest.

That article is interesting: there's room for a reborn Labour in the central belt, with more support from the NE of England.

Research has found that education is associated with more liberal opinions

So possibly you'll get less BNP/UKIP support amongst graduates...

Or that "better educated" could mean "better indoctrinated" into the mainstream, middle class consensus?
Maybe less likely to think for themselves if they've already been taught all the answers?

FWIW, I don't think there's any other evidence to suggest there's been a sudden increase in the numbers of "muppets" and "fruitcakes" in society.
Or that a load of "thugs" who never voted before have been unexpectantly charmed by Farange's spiel and got off their sofa's to register their vote for the very first time.
More likely the a fair proportion of exactly the same people who voted Labour, Tory and Liberal last time chose to vote differently this time.

And anyone trying to dismiss UKIP votes as crazies and loons are hardly doing their own "side" any favours with that level of political argument. Kills any debate dead and plays into their hands, really.

There's one happy result to come - I think we'll see Ken Clarke forcibly retired now that Nigel Farage has thanked him for a three percent boost due to his comment.

I suspect that the UKIP vote at local level was way of trying to get the message across to the goverment levels that many people are fed up of sharing our limited resources.
I doubt many see any relevance of UKIP outside national level as its a national policy they preach. Grass roots politcis is the way to start isn't it.
Then again I fail to see why party politics is relevant at parish or distric level anyway.

What I cannot get to grips with is the way people here rant on about UKIP voters being narrow minded. Thats rather narrow minded isn't it 😆

FWIW, I don't think there's any other evidence to suggest there's been a sudden increase in the numbers of "muppets" and "fruitcakes" in society.

No, but we have had a good 5+ years of the tabloids feeding a racist, anti-immigrant, anti European sentiment which UKIP / BNP have benefited from.

that many people are fed up of sharing our limited resources

The UK isn't short of resources, the problem is that they aren't shared by the many, but just a small elite, while "the many" have to make do with the few crumbs that fall from the table.

slowoldgit - Member
There's one happy result to come - I think we'll see Ken Clarke forcibly retired now that Nigel Farage has thanked him for a three percent boost due to his comment.

Cameron doesn't have the clout to do that.

There are plenty of people in Labour strongholds that wouldn't vote Conservative if they were forced to, but harbour the kind of right wing mentality (immigrants, Europe etc.) that UKIP give them and would be more comfortable voting for.

Can't decide if the UKIP South Shields vote was a vote again the Cons, the Lib Dems or Labour. Or, all of the above.

Imagine if we have PR with 26% UKIP.....

The Euro elections are just over a year away and they are PR.

No, but we have had a good 5+ years of the tabloids feeding a racist, anti-immigrant, anti European sentiment which UKIP / BNP have benefited from.

I don't know how much you remember before 2008, but the tabloids haven't just suddenly become like this.

Nigel Farage, earlier today:

"I don't think these votes are going away quickly," he added.

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaah haaahaaahhaahhaa heheeeheeeheeheeheeeheeheehee hohohohohohohoho heeheeheeheeheeheeheeheehee hohohohohohohohohohohohoho

The UKIP surge at yesterdays election will be dismissed as a mid-term protest vote and ‘we’ the CONLIB pack will say they are listening, but its all Labours fault, bla, bla, bla….

The real crux for the 3 main parties at the next election is how the economy performs over the next two years!

If the economy recovers and voters feel wealthy then the CONs stand a very good change of forming the next government. The LAB LIBs will be in the cold for a long time, LABs will be seen as irrelevant and LIBs will be seen as the wilderness party.

However, if the economy continues to bump along the bottom, un-employment and borrowing remains high, house prices stagnate and voters continue to receive below inflation or no rises what so ever, then don’t be surprised if UKIP does well at the next election, as voters punish the CONs a bit, ignore the Labs and annihilate the LIBs for supporting the CONs. Votes don't always means seat tho

I suspect only time will tell, but the worst outcome for all will be a another hung parliament.

My theory is that Thatcher is to blame.. no... hold on, wait for it

I see a lot of first and second time voters being fairly heavily politicized.. they've grown up in an almost constant state of war with a never ending onslaught of xenophobic right wing propaganda from the media..
The recent political coup that brought an unelected Tory government to power has propagated a massive shift in social morality as far as I can see..
Bankers going unpunished, the weak, the poor and the different being persecuted, old class and economic divides being stirred up and widened, protest being quashed and dissent being crushed..
The centre right's shame and embarrassment is finally no longer enough to keep them in check, and more and more hateful ideologies are being openly and seriously discussed amongst those of a more simple nature - the interwebs being the ideal platform for their minds to meet..

All this has given rise to a new generation of quite far right young people who, as young people are still tending towards a black and white view and, still harbouring that childish instinct for survival of the fittest, have no qualms about taking a hardline stance that protects what they perceive to be theirs..
A whole generation that has been raised to hate and fear rather than to care
A generation raised to believe that there's nothing left for them, and the fight is to be over the last few crumbs

economic policy is obviously considered to be of little importance

Nasty times ahead I reckon

I don't know how much you remember before 2008, but the tabloids haven't just suddenly become like this.

It seems to have got a lot worse, it used to just be all Diana / Jacko nonsense, but now it's just becoming unashamed hate filled vitriol on repeat play.

[quote=yunki ] an unelected Tory government
Stop it. The current government was elected under the rules and practices that existed before the election. It wasn't a coup.

Stop it. The current government was elected under the rules and practices that existed before the election. It wasn't a coup.

bah..

I doubt they even count the votes..

@CaptJon

[i]Cameron doesn't have the clout to do that. [/i]

But a lot of back-bench Tory MPs will be feeling a tad less secure today.

yunki - Member

All this has given rise to a new generation of quite far right young people who, as young people are still tending towards a black and white view and are still harbouring that childish instinct for survival of the fittest, have no qualms about taking a stance that protects what they perceive to be theirs..
A whole generation that has been raised to hate and fear rather than to care

You're absolutely bang on with this yunki! If you look at the more bonkers, loony tunes theories and policies proposed by Tory-leaning think-tanks, they're all from people straight out of Oxbridge, rather than the Norman Tebbit brigade you'd automatically associate them with

Whats particularly terrifying is you're meant to get right wing as you get older. They've got a lifetime in front of them..... 😯

Not seen a single UKIP candidate being voted in up here in Northumberlad.

Not seen a single UKIP candidate being voted in up here in Northumberlad.

Did any stand?

Did any stand?

Well yes.

...given rise to a new generation of quite far right young people who, as young people are still tending towards a black and white view...

When wikileaks published that BNP membership list, I was rather concerned about the number of 16yr olds on there, especially in my local area.

And yes I personally know at least one person on that list, whom I did suspect was a supporter of such radical views. He tried to publicly sue them, which of course publicised the fact that he was associated with the BNP 🙄

OK there was never any real evidence it was just a membership list, but still concerning that people not yet ready to vote are associated to such an organisation at the political extremes.

BBC Breaking news tickertape just read

"UKIP take Isle of White"

Direct quote.

Couldn't make it up.

snarf snarf.

The irony of voting UKIP as an anti-establishment protest is that Farage couldn't be more establishment if he tried. Fortunately for him, his voters are a bit dim.

Fortunately for him, his voters are a bit dim

Don't tell him ransos!

My mates son is 22 lives in St Albans, messed up in school and is just a lazy git but a lovely lad if you see what I mean. In a pretty rubbish dead end job. Talking to him and his mates about politics is terrifying. They got all excited at last General election the first he could vote in and went Lib Dem, since then Clegg has renaged on all his manifesto promises so my mates son now votes UkiP. His reasons are he was lied to by his major party of choice, Tories are just rich f******* who look after their mates. Labour? I am not voting for that **** he looks like a mong. While not being overtly racist he has no time for Indian ****stani kids, his reason is that they kept to themselves in school and are smelly, same with Eastern Europeans. Black people are fine though.

Me and his dad have talked to him and he knows his own mind, he thinks Ukip are the future and so do his mates. Interesting times ahead indeed.

Phew, no UKIP / BNP Councillors in Cambridge City. Can't say the same thing for the Fens.....

Tories are just rich f**** who look after their mates. Labour? I am not voting for that * he looks like a mong.

He's clearly not daft then. I think he's managed to sum things up pretty much perfectly there. There's not much needs adding to that, really.

I am not voting for that **** he looks like a mong.

yep, of the two millipede brothers I can't work out how they managed to vote for not only the talentless one, but the gormless one as well.....