This is unconfirmed, but it seems pretty true to form for Russia.
Could also simply be a way of preventing the army crossing the river.
isn’t one of theories that the water level were allowed to become dangerously high?
I'm not sure I buy into this one. Dams are generally built with emergency spillways which prevent excessively high levels even if all the controllable outlets and spillways are shut. Of course I say this without any detailed knowledge of this particular dam or of 1950s Soviet dam design in general.
Weren’t there also issues concerning Ukraine deliberately affecting water supplies to Crimea before 24th Feb 2022?
Yes. A quite reasonable approach to my mind given the Russian occupation of Crimea, though with hindsight that could well have precipitated the full scale invasion of Ukraine.
Here's an interesting article from The Financial Times in 2021.
A further report on the aftermath of the dam destruction. Play silly games, win silly prizes…
Russian troops occupying the east bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast were not ready for the effects of the Kakhovka dam destruction, resulting in losses in personnel and military equipment, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported on June 8.
In particular, there are injured, dead, and missing in Russia's 7th Air Assault Division and the 22nd Army Corps, the General Staff wrote, without specifying the numbers.
According to the report, those units also lost several field ammunition depots and food storages, soft-skinned vehicles, armored vehicles, and other military property.
On June 6, a mass evacuation of civilians from Russian-occupied Kakhovka reportedly took place with people using their own vehicles. Russian forces stationed in the town left via the same evacuation routes, thus "using residents as human shields," the Ukrainian military added.
Russia destroyed the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant's dam on the Dnipro River on June 6, sparking a large-scale humanitarian and environmental disaster across southern Ukraine.
As the Institute of the Study of War (ISW) said in its latest update, the flooding caused by the dam's collapse had "heavily disrupted" Russian defensive positions on the river's east bank, particularly Russian first-line positions in Hola Prystan and Oleshky.
According to the ISW, Russian troops were likely forced to retreat from the towns of Hola Prystan and Oleshky due to the flooding. They had previously used those positions to shell the regional capital of Kherson and other nearby settlements on the west bank.
Is it possible that a Ukrainian missile or whatever hit the dam, couldn’t damage it but did set off the Russian explosives inside?
Seems a possibiilty.
That makes it look like the road was taken out a few days before, which could have triggered a later failure.
IMHO it doesn't look like much damage to the road, not enough to trigger a failure.
did you look at the pictures closely? one picture has a curved section of road at the top of the dam, the next day's photo it's gone with some water escaping. next photos is dam completely breached.
unless I'm not seeing it right (perfectly possible!)
From what I can see, there's water coming through in both photos and from what I can see it's only a small section of road that has gone.
From what I can see, there’s water coming through in both photos and from what I can see it’s only a small section of road that has gone.
Was that part of the road removed in order to weaken the remaining structure ahead of the main detonation?
dunno, for a chunk of road to disappear something must have happened maybe it was just it failing through neglect / previous damage and not deliberately blown.
timing is very convenient though
Seems unlikely, that's going to be of little structural significance to a 30m tall dam. Bit of reinforced concrete roadway spanning a gap is all it is.
It does beg the question of why it was missing in the first place though.
Looking at streetview is worthwhile if you're interested in that part of things and how the dam and road worked... It had spillways/gates right along the top, the water that you see in those satellite pictures is probably a normal controlled release through some of those- the blue things you can see in the pictures over the water release are the moving cranes that lift the gates, I think, which strongly supports that- whereas if it'd been uncontrolled they'd almost certainly have moved those elsewhere and opened other gates.
I think that also basically disqualifies the idea of high water or simple maintenance being the issue- there's a massive amount of redundancy there, it'd have to be completely abandoned for it to have simply overtopped, and there's so many gates that a mechanical failure could have been worked around. They clearly had the capacity to release pressure just a few days before the collapse and were doing so.
But also, I'd imagined it as basically being "road on top of dam" but the road's kind of rigged off the back side of it, it's sort of half-dam-half-bridge. The bit of road that collapsed/is missing looks to have been quite separate from the dam in this way, it curved away from the dam and around the hydro plant. So that creates a bit more separation between the two- if, say, the road over hoover dam collapsed you'd say that's a sign of major dam damage, because it's literalyl just on top of the dam. But here the top of the dam is all the gates etc not the road.
There's obviously other reasons to take down a road, in a warzone, and I suspect that where it's broken is exactly where you'd do it if you just wanted to stop all traffic, it looks like the least supported span. It's also for the same reason probably the part where a road collapse is least likely to affect the dam. But that doesn't apply to "dam is damaged, road collapse is just a symptom of that, a precollapse"
I can't figure out the actual process of collapse, though? Some videos show 2 breaches, one effectively straight through the power station building (turbine hall?) and then the main span. But that's a weird thing to happen. And it's hard to imagine a breach of the northern side (ie where it's just a dam) then causing such a seeminly separate failure in the southern side (where it cut through the power station). But it's maybe more likely that a failure on the power station side could undermine the back of the main dam by allowing a lot of water where it's not supposed to be... But presumably the part with the buildings would be the strongest part. Which in some ways points towards controlled demolition, but also, it's a kind of weird place to do it- why demolish the strongest part? Why not just cut the main dam...
Just thinking out loud but it's something I've not seen spoken about much and just looking at it Made Me Think Innit.
It's not like actual mechanical failure is unprecedented though, Sayano-Shushenskaya was only in 2009. Looking at what happened there it's not hard to see how the same could have happened here that triggered a series of events, man made or otherwise.
Again, just idle speculation.
Here's a nice image of part of the dam as it used to look.
On the right is the turbine hall with tailrace gates below it, on the left the spillways and gates used to regulate reservoir level and downstream flow. It is those gates which have been destroyed allowing uncontrolled flow downstream. The dam structure is (presumably) still substantially intact below the level of the spillway gates, so the lake impounded by the dam will not empty completely but find a new level slightly above the new dam crest. It's going to be a sod of a job to reinstate some form of downstream control and that's not going to happen until this war is over.
Ah okay, never mind my previous post then, I was under the impression the turbine hall was destroyed.
It has been- this page has a pretty good video
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/06/europe/ukraine-nova-kakhovka-dam-breach-intl-hnk/index.html
It's possible that the damage to the northern part of the dam started out purely with the gates, but if so, it's grown massively and kind of strangely.
Data from regional seismic stations show clear signals on Tuesday 6 June at 2:54 local time (01:54 Norwegian time). Time and place coincide with reports in the media about the collapse of the Kakhovka dam. The signals indicate that there is an explosion.Magnitude estimate is between 1 and 2.
The figure below shows the signal from the Bukovina (BURAR) seismic array, a measuring station in Romania. Distance from the dam is 620 km.
I cannot verify the source for reliability. At first glance appears to be a legit seismic monitoring organisation.
The only priority is how to bring an end to the war as soon as possible,
The alternative to that is more destruction and death and the unthinkable prospect of nuclear escalation.
Putin would have to be mad to launch nuclear weapons, so why do think Zelensky should talk to a mad man? It seems to me that the one threat totally negates the usefulness of the other. If I was Zelensky I would only talk to Putin if he did a constructive act such as withdraw troops or show some other sign of seriously wanting to de-escalate the war. As long as Putin claims that he'll launch nuclear weapons, I wouldn't go anywhere near the negotiating table, what would be the point?
and govts and people on both sides are going to have to swallow some hard compromises.
What compromises do you think that Ukraine should make? It seems to me that they are just defending themsleves, the only compromises should be made by the Russians as they withdraw to their previous border
@nickc, you actually hit the nail on the head there a bit, with "previous border". Which previous border?
Compromises come in a lot of shapes. I mean, in a just and dream world they ought to be shooting for a complete restoration of pre-2014 borders (*) AND for compliance with war crimes courts AND for reparations and compensation... So, anything short of that could be considered a compromise. With my optimistic-but-cynical hat on I think they might well eventually have to settle a post-2014 border, no reparations, and be mourning their dead with the people who did it just over the garden fence. There could be some very difficult decisions in Donetsk, Lunanks...
(* I say pre-2014, maybe there's some other line in the sand that's more appropriate, but you get what I mean)
The dam structure is (presumably) still substantially intact below the level of the spillway gates, so the lake impounded by the dam will not empty completely but find a new level slightly above the new dam crest
Guess that depends on how much additional damage is caused by the huge volume of water flowing above it. Erosion could remove a lot of it.
Nick you seem to feel that Ukraine, and indeed the West, is in a strong position with regards to Russia and can simply demand and expect Russia to unconditionally withdraw - it really isn't.
Russia is in no great rush, the sanctions which were suppose to cripple her economy and bring its collapse has harmed the US and Europe more than it has Russia.
Despite sanctions Russia's economy is plodding along and it appears able to comfortably finance its military operations in Ukraine.
Soaring defence spending has kept Russia's industrial sector ticking along, driving forecasts for economic growth this year and helping Moscow to continue its military campaign in Ukraine.
In contrast the sanctions have caused economic turmoil in the West with Germany recently entering recession as a direct consequence and then today this:
https://www.politico.eu/article/eurozone-is-in-a-technical-recession/
In the meantime the Ukrainian economy is understandably in a severe crisis. Plus as well as causing more damage to the West than to Russia sanctions have provided huge economic benefits for China, India, and Iraq.
Despite well publicised Ukrainian advances I very much doubt that Ukraine can fully defeat Russia militarily and I am fairly certain that Russia is prepared for a long drawn out conflict.
IMO internal politics is more likely to put effective pressure on Putin than sanctions, however unlikely that might currently appear.
Ah okay, never mind my previous post then, I was under the impression the turbine hall was destroyed.
No, I think you are right, part or all of the turbine hall was also destroyed. I think the photos posted by @natrix show that.
Guess that depends on how much additional damage is caused by the huge volume of water flowing above it. Erosion could remove a lot of it.
That depends on the construction of the dam. If it was an earth gravity dam then I would agree. I haven't been able to find any details of the construction (I have tried as a nerdy retired civil engineer) but I suspect it consists of earth embankments to both sides of a central concrete structure where the spillways and hydro plant are. If I'm right I can't see the flow of water causing much more damage. Certainly once the water level has reduced significantly the kinetic energy available to cause additional damage will be much reduced.
I was going from the angle of an explosion originating within the turbine hall taking out the rest of the dam, I'm not sure this is the case here.
Despite sanctions Russia’s economy is plodding along and it appears able to comfortably finance its military operations in Ukraine.
This is solely based on numbers provided by the Kremlin in case anyones wondering but hasnt followed the links source.
Russia is in no great rush, the sanctions which were suppose to cripple her economy and bring its collapse has harmed the US and Europe more than it has Russia.
Do you have a source for that expectation from someone imvolved in putting together those sanctions? Sounds a bit of a Daily Express claim, everything I read suggested the expectations were more about inhibiting, not destroying.
Ukraine think that almost 600,000 hectares of irrigated land will be affected by this and that affects farming on a similar area again.
1 million+ hectares and who knows how many tonnes of crops in a world struggling to feed itself
@ernielynch, if you honestly think that Russia is in a stronger financial position that "The West" generally and Germany in particular and has a military that is capable of occupying and maintaining control over a country the sizeof Ukraine, good luck to you.
No of course I don't think that Russia is in a stronger financial position than the West. I am just pointing out that the sanctions are causing more damage to the the US and Europe than it is to Russia. And they are an absolute godsend to China.
I am just pointing out that the sanctions are causing more damage to the the US and Europe than it is to Russia.
Why? Because we can't get cheap Baltic ply? Because you're going to have to show some numbers to back that claim up.
Russia is in no great rush, the sanctions which were suppose to cripple her economy and bring its collapse has harmed the US and Europe more than it has Russia.
Interesting use of the female pronoun there. You may as well hang your hat on the line and call it "Mother Russia".
It's undeniable that sanctions are damaging the Russian economy. That they might be also damaging Western economies is, in my opinion, irrelevant. It's the principle that you don't deal with war-mongering bullies if you can help it. And before you accuse me of hypocrisy, I'd quite happily sanction other backward countries like Saudi Arabia.
The sanctions could easily be taken further. I'd be tempted to deny Chinese airlines landing permissions at UK and European airports while they continue to overfly Russia; we shouldn't be buying laundered Russian oil from India, and frankly Belarus needs a good kick in the testicles too.
Why? Because we can’t get cheap Baltic ply?
I'm sorry I hadn't realise that it was even doubted that the sanctions were significantly hurting Europe's economies. I'm not sure why you think that Germany and the wider eurozone has gone into recession. And have you seen the state of Ukraine's economy?
Russia has simply redirected its oil sales to China and India. It's looking at closer economic links with South America and is undoubtedly getting advice on sanction busting from Iran, a country which despite over 40 years of sanctions is a growing industrial power.
The war appears to be currently boosting the Russian economy in a similar way that WW2 helped the United States out of the post 1930s economic doldrums.
Interesting use of the female pronoun there.
Oh ffs! How predictable! 😂
For whoever it was who denied that the sanctions were predicted to cause Russia's economic collapse:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60125659
Western leaders predicted Russia's economy would collapse. After the invasion of Ukraine and first sanctions, prices rose sharply and people took their money out of banks.
But the International Monetary Fund believes Russia's economy could grow by 0.7% in 2023.
I'm not sure if the BBC is considered an acceptable source.
Edit: Or the International Monetary Fund
I’d quite happily sanction other backward countries like Saudi Arabia.
Indeed, but nobody is going to . We'll keep selling arms or whatever to Saudi, and overlooking anything they do, basically because we need their resources and money.
If Saudi want to drop our bombs on Yemeni children, they will, and we'll look at that as an increased market to sell them some more
In fact when it comes to that we'll happily shake them by the hand and maybe send a head royal to invite them to a state dinner.
You may as well hang your hat on the line and call it “Mother Russia”.
Pathetic and hilarious at both the same time. Wave your flag, keep looking for those reds under the bed!
backward countries like Saudi Arabia.
WTF? I'm no fan of Saudi Arabia but I think you seriously need to question your apparently racist attitude towards countries with different cultures, social structures and traditions. Backward? FFS!
Interesting use of the female pronoun there. You may as well hang your hat on the line and call it “Mother Russia”.
TBF, giving countries a female pronoun is the convention in the English language, just like ships are usually female too.
Edit, I accept there are exceptions, such as the now-defunct use of 'Fatherland' for Germany.
Interesting update of timelines and the practicalities of fixing this problem longer term in the Guardian
Ihor Syrota, the head of Ukraine’s hydro power corporation Ukrhydroenergo, which oversees the Kakhova dam, said the left bank would have to be liberated before reconstruction work could begin, but plans were already being drawn up in anticipation.
“Water is continually flowing over it and destroying the foundation. Only when the water has calmed will we be able to see the extent of the destruction,” Syrota told the Guardian. He thought that would take 10 days.
He said the next step would be to build a 15 metre-high buffer dam upstream of the ruined hydroelectric station so that work could start on building a new one.
“It will take us four months to make the [buffer dam],” he said. “But we can start the work only after the liberation of this territory.”
In a later interview with Ukrainian media, Syrota, said the construction time for the new buffer dam could be halved to two months “provided that we work 24/7”.
Syrota dismissed suggestions that the dam could have been destroyed as result of partial damage that led to catastrophic structural failure, calling them Russian propaganda.
“The plant was designed to withstand a nuclear strike,” Syrota said. “To destroy the plant from the outside, at least three aircraft bombs, each of 500kg, would have had to be dropped on the same spot. The station was blown up from the inside.”
He added: “In October 2022, the Russians kicked all the workers out of the station, and from then the facility produced no energy. It became just a fortification for the Russian military. They brought hundreds of kilograms of explosives there. Ukraine reported last year that the station was mined. The Russians were just waiting for right day to blow it up.”
For whoever it was who denied that the sanctions were predicted to cause Russia’s economic collapse:https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60125659
Western leaders predicted Russia’s economy would collapse. After the invasion of Ukraine and first sanctions, prices rose sharply and people took their money out of banks.
But the International Monetary Fund believes Russia’s economy could grow by 0.7% in 2023.
I’m not sure if the BBC is considered an acceptable source.
Edit: Or the International Monetary Fund
That was me, and your linked article doesnt actually have anyone claiming Russia would collapse, just an indirect assertion without anything to back it up.
Not trying to be funny, but I just (clickbait aside) never really saw much expectation that it would happen.
Russia has simply redirected its oil sales to China and India.
Apologies again, source for Russia sending the same volumes to China and India that was sent to the west?
The war appears to be currently boosting the Russian economy in a similar way that WW2 helped the United States out of the post 1930s economic doldrums.
Data for the Russian economy is either witheld, cherry picked or arguably fabricated. And its that data the IMF uses.
Apologies again, source for Russia sending the same volumes to China and India that was sent to the west?
According to the BBC link, which apparently you haven't read, Russia now exports more oil than she/it was before the invasion of Ukraine. Here is a fuller version of the earlier quote:
Western leaders predicted Russia's economy would collapse. After the invasion of Ukraine and first sanctions, prices rose sharply and people took their money out of banks.
But the International Monetary Fund believes Russia's economy could grow by 0.7% in 2023.
This is because Russia is exporting 8.3 million barrels of oil a day - the highest level since April 2020, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The biggest importers are India and China.
Obviously if you think they are unreliable sources just dismiss all that, it's obviously up to you.
Cheers Ernie, although this still reads like drama points for attention (by the WH admittedly)
On Tuesday, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki called Russia’s financial system “near the brink of collapse” and said how soon Moscow begins defaulting on its debts depends on decisions the country makes in response to the results of sanctions."It is more and more difficult for President Putin to fund this war, every single day. That has an impact,” she added.
Asked by Bloomberg News if the White House has a specific timetable for when Russia might begin defaulting on its debts, Ms Psaki said the administration does not have a precise answer and that they’d be interested in hearing the financial news outlet’s suggested timeframe.
"I don’t have an assessment of that, I look forward to reading Bloomberg’s assessment of that, but I don’t have an assessment from here. It depends in part on what decisions they [Russia] make,” she said.
Which is basically "ooh soon, but dont really know when"
Even the US Treasury have much more realistic press releases but I guess theyre not trying to shift a message.
Obviously if you think they are unreliable sources just dismiss all that, it’s obviously up to you.
I actually just skimmed to the relevant content I was engaged with at the time.
However I respect your right to be condescending, I guess.
Edit, does anyone know where the IEA get their data from?
Which is basically “ooh soon, but dont really know when”
Well it's obviously up to you if you want to dismiss every link that I provide, it's not about me being "condescending", it's about you rejecting perfectly reliable sources - the BBC, the IMF, the White House, the Independent.
From the above link:
Press secretary Jen Psaki says inflation will lead to collapse of Russian economy
That was just over a year ago, today inflation in Russia is 2%, it is 8% in the EU, and it is 18% in Ukraine.
Do you reckon that sanctions are working as expected and that the Russian economy will collapse due to inflation and that only the timescale is uncertain?
I dont believe a WH press briefing was anything other than well presented political manoeuvring/propaganda and not an honest assessment of what the expected outcomes would be.
I have no idea on the effectiveness of the sanctions as no reliable data is coming out of Russia, including what the IMF have been using. This may have changed but if it has Ive missed it.
Although I would hedge my bets on no sanctions, and Russia still spending massively on the war effort would mean a Russia in an even stronger position than today.
From the above link:
I know, I quoted it too.
WTF? I’m no fan of Saudi Arabia but I think you seriously need to question your apparently racist attitude towards countries with different cultures, social structures and traditions. Backward? FFS!
I’d call public executions pretty backward, wouldn’t you? 🤷♂️🤦🏻♂️
The price for Russian oil and gas has plummeted though, hasn’t it.
