Every poster in this thread has called for restraint. You talk as if we’re all calling for an attack of Russia. No one has done that. No one has called for any strikes by Western countries, but preparation to defend other countries is essential, because the “Putin will not invade Ukraine” line was bogus, and there is genuine concern that it will not end there.
“We have a responsibility as Nato allies to prevent this war from escalating beyond Ukraine, because that will be even more dangerous, more devastating, and will cause even more human suffering. So we have made it clear we are not going to move into Ukraine neither on the ground or in the Ukrainian airspace.“
I sense no-one really knows what the true ultimate desired outcome for this actually is. Regardless, for a notable and significant number of humans it is completely wrong and unnecessary.
I think for pretty much all the countries in the world bar one, the desired outcome is for Putin to give up and go home!
However. Shall we try and scope some possible options? I'll start?
1. Ukraine surrenders. Highly unlikely. Russia will be a global pariah, countries like Finland/Sweden etc will be very keen to join NATO, Putin will surely want to regroup and crack on into Moldova.
2. It grinds on for weeks, and Ukraine eventually cedes some territory - perhaps DNR and LNR or Crimea / South Coast (which I reckon he wants more than Donbas - warm water ports and all that). Ukraine won't want to go for this, and Putin will surely want to regroup and crack on into the rest of Ukraine. Also seems unlikely.
3. Continued supply of weapons and volunteers sees Ukraine able to beat Putin back and, combined with the rapid North Koreafication of Russia, he 'gives up'?? Would seem highly unlikely. But possibly more likely than #1?
4. Stalemate. Putin slowly demolishes Ukraine like he did Aleppo. Ukraine doesn't give up. Sanctions pulverise Russia, famine starts to kick in in Ukraine.
5. Other?? Russia can't start attacking other countries - he's already pulling troops out of Kazakhstan as it is.
I don't know, some variant of #2 seems possible? Ukraine cedes territory, but joins the EU, and accepts some kind of EU but non-NATO defence force? But #4 seems the most likely?
Some of you need to toughen up a bit. I mean that in the nicest way possible as I know I'll get slated for this, but it is not healthy to get as engaged with this as some of you are, obsessing over by-the-minute minute happenings and news feeds, and over analysing everything. It's similar to the covid thread, it's become a very dark pit of fearmongering and depression over circumstances you can't change.
Take a break from the news and get some fresh air. It's not healthy to feel like you need to be constantly worried about this. Yes it's concerning, but being concerned wont fix it if that makes sense?
I think the sanctions mean the tipping point will be earlier, in a month Putin probably won't be around
Amen @airvent
Every poster in this thread has called for restraint. You talk as if we’re all calling for an attack of Russia. No one has done that.
The thread is full of people calling for Putin's assassination. And as mentioned this has been discussed on national TV. Imagine if someone had assassinated Tony Blair or George W Bush as a response to the Gulf War. Appropriate? Helpful?
Dictators choose the manner of their own dethronement. Blair and Bush were not dictators, and, much as I dislike and campaigned against both of them, had short terms and had to face the ballot box. If Putin makes it so that his time in charge can only end one way, that's down to him. I want him pushed aside. I want him stood up to. I want him rejected. I want him deposed, not killed. The crackdowns on any democratic dissent in Russia make this look very unlikely from this distance though.
The thread is full of people calling for Putin’s assassination.
It is not. Who said that?
You're not allowed to deviate from the narrative of 'Ukraine/NATO saintly - Putin = Hitler with nukes'. Any information that might suggest anything like that is 'derailing the thread'.
It is not. Who said that?
Several people have said things like 'we can only hope someone in his inner circle decides to take him out'. I CBA going and finding them but they're there.
We can’t. Putin doesn’t want to solve it. It’s in his hands.
In a “play the ball not the player” way… That’s a bit of a defeatist attitude isn’t it? I am not having a pop, nor am I suggesting that Putins likely to have his mind changed… But this is where the deep problem solving comes in.
I’ll be the first to admit I’ve committed some relatively hairbrained ideas to this thread so far, and probably will do more… But when did anybody win a war by sitting back and giving up all hope? 🤷🏻♂️
Work with what you have… Putin isn’t going to be changed… So you Have to find ways of isolating his ability to provide influence. All sorts of coup scenarios have been thrown out there, putting a price on his head etc… This isn’t war mongering incidentally, it’s people proactively trying to think of a way around a world defeating problem, a guy who has bent all the rules to fit his own agenda, so maybe we need to bend our “rules” slightly, even just once, to deal with the problem…
Anyway… I’ve had another brain wave… Intelligence is suggesting he’s almost certainly holed up in his Siberian Nuclear bunker now. We can read into this a bit more in that all of his media submitted in the last 2/3 days has been of him solo, addressing the camera directly, looking like he is in a studio rather than in offices at the Kremlin… Clutching at straws? Maybe…
But someone knows where this bunker is… Someone knows how to switch the power, the internet off, lock and seal the doors and just walk away from it all to be hailed as an international hero! Don’t even need to do any dirty work, just lock him in there and walk away… Let him live the rest of his life in his own personal safety! 🤷🏻♂️
The thread is full of people calling for Putin’s assassination.
its not
And as mentioned this has been discussed on national TV.
the point of a free press is they can largely say what they like including debating something that a lot of people probably thought when they hear "its Putin's war not Russia's war".
Imagine if someone had assassinated Tony Blair or George W Bush as a response to the Gulf War.
I'm sure people will have suggested it! Certainly, some people wanted them arrested. I'm sure many people suggesting killing Putin would be content if we was simply imprisoned.
Appropriate? Helpful?
no more or less so than any contribution you've made.
My take on "how does this end"?
Ukraine is lost. We can't save it by intervening and Putin won't stop.
Poland/other NATO states are a different thing. Then we would, due to treaties, be inevitably drawn into military action.
So we need to increase our support for other bordering non-NATO countries. The only way we can do that is to grant NATO membership. Putin won't like it but he's forced in on himself.
Russia has to be made a pariah state. Continue the most severe economic sanctions. It means we have to turn the heating down and drive a bit less, but hey, we are all cyclists aren't we? My parents went through much more in WWII.
You’re not allowed to deviate from the narrative
this must be the cancel culture everyone talks about.
I've just been told by a reliable source that most nuclear physicists recommend against sprawling gunfights near nuclear power plants.
Unconfirmed, but huge if true
In your knowledge or world history and politics when have political assassinations turned out well? Wasn't there a famous one that started a world war or something?
Some of you need to toughen up a bit.
Some people appear to have underestimated the seriousness of the situation.
Ok so I've said the only way this ends positivity for the Ukraine is Putin going by hook or by crook. Maybe china tells him to wind it up?
Blair was kicked out of power in a democratic election he was no dictator no laws where brought in by him to send his own kin to labour camps for for protesting the war or even calling it one. ( I'm far from his biggest fan)
Putin won't stop this now and that not war mongering.
I’ve just been told by a reliable source that most nuclear physicists recommend against sprawling gunfights near nuclear power plants.
Unconfirmed, but huge if true
I'm guessing they've never been in a gunfight. For balance, you need to hear the opinions of people who get in gunfights as their job but have never studied nuclear physics.
Here's what Channel4 Fact Check thinks (from a few days ago admittedly):
The UK and Russia would only end up at war if Russia attacks a NATO member and the UK decides to respond with military might.
As Ukraine is not part of NATO, the UK has no obligation to make any military intervention so long as the fighting stays where it is.
And we should stress: Russia has not yet attacked any NATO member and might never do so.
Even if it did launch an assault, there’s no guarantee that the rest of NATO would declare war or take military action in response.
And even if NATO members did retaliate with force, there are plenty of barriers – not least the prospect of mutual assured destruction and major loss of life on both sides – to prevent any country involved in a hypothetical future NATO-Russia war from deploying nuclear weapons.
Seems a pretty balanced take on it. I just don't see it as helpful or appropriate to be talking up the chances of a nuclear war/wider conflict.
I believe most people don't like gun fights.
Some people appear to have underestimated the seriousness of the situation.
Yep.
Some people appear to have underestimated the seriousness of the situation.
Not really, I just know when things are well outside my control and try not to let them consume me. Some of the rhetoric on here about nukes and WW3 is embarrassing. It's like watching children doing their history GCSEs have a debate but not leaving it at the classroom door.
Some people need to stop telling some people what to do and what to think. I've had so much advice over the last couple of pages that I can't take it all in!
Bored now. Just wanted to have a grown up discussion. Thanks.
@grum
I don't think any on here wants this to escalate.
And well done to everyone who has donated 55mil in one day via Dec no matter your views
And well done to everyone who has donated 55mil in one day via Dec no matter your views
+1 to that
Let's hope it's just the start.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60623162
"While wanting to collect clothes and other items for people in need is laudable, the things people give today may not be what people need tomorrow and aid workers say they can't use much of what is arriving. Donating through the DEC is the most helpful way people can assist," he said.
He added that while it was an "astonishing amount" to raise on the first day of the appeal, people were being urged to keep donating as "the needs is great and the response needed is likely to run into months and years".
DEC members, and local aid agencies working with them, are operating in Ukraine and in the neighbouring countries of Poland, Romania, Hungary, Moldova and Slovakia.
They are using the money raised to provide trauma care, as well as providing medical treatment, food, water and shelter.
How many times? NOBODY has said this. This is entirely a figment of you and your mates imagination and being used as a strawman at every opportunity.
People want a simple good vs evil narrative. Real life is messy and complicated and confusing and involves lots of crappy compromises. Lots of people don't seem to be able to handle that so instead indulge themselves with bizarre fantasies about assassinations and uprisings etc.
The reality is that this likely ends in a peace negotiation where Putin gets most of what he wants because no-one wants a wider conflict.
This is a really good article:
https://breakingdefense.com/2022/03/letter-from-kyiv-putins-war-on-ukraine-is-pozor-rossii/
Yeah, but you also didn’t understand why anyone would think he would invade. To be fair, I didn’t think he would invade but I was only mildly surprised when it happened.
To be honest Bruce I don't think its a case of, we didnt think it would happen, the number of troops, the bringing of armaments into Belarus via a 'supposed war game' pretty much put the chance of invasion in the more than likely.
What we were hoping for, you ,me, the state department, the UK government and the Ukrainians themselves is that they hoped wouldn't be an invasion, and Russia would get the assurances it wanted, and pull back
They have in the past massed on the Ukrainian border, then pulled back, so everyone was hoping against hope that this would be one of those occasions.
But the rhetoric from the US president, from BJ, from others in the west was ramping up the pressure to the point even the Ukrainian government made a statement asking for the western governments and press to basically cool it, and that they themselves didn't think they're would be an invasion- Which they actually said on TV.. Again this was more hope that an acceptance.
The last time anyone said anything useful on this thread was chewkw, about 5 says ago, when he pretty much called the situation as it is today whilst the rest of the forum was talking about the various ways regime change was going to happen.
I haven't seen anything from any poster since then that has added much useful information, [though I am now a Nuclear facilities expert and I've learnt that a javelin is not what I thought it was].
[MODS - We’re closing the thread for a while to give everyone a chance to cool off. When it reopens, please be mindful of Marks message about playing the ball, not the man. We do not want to close the thread permanently, but the amount of reports we are getting is becoming ridiculous.
Play nice]
First in after the ban!
What have I missed?
27.5 makes the trails come alive.
Turn you gas central heating down/off, cut your electricity consumption. Drive more economicaly and eliminate unnecessary car journeys. 35% of European gas comes from Russia and you can do your bit to eliminate that.
Thanks
Before we get into it, let's take a moment to acknowledge the things we all agree on:
I don't suppose it's feasible for a force from non-NATO countries to get in there to enforce a no fly zone on both combatants and subsequently deploy a Peacekeeping force on ground eventually. Presumably UN would broker that..but Russia likely to veto?
A lady i work with came into work in tears.
Her husband volunteered to drive to Poland for the Red Cross. He has a lwb panel van so can carry a fair bit.
She thinks he will be bombed or shot at as he is going to Ukrainian border.
I tried my best to calm her down by explaining that the war cannot cross the border for many reasons and he should be perfectly safe.
Then i watched the C4 news at 1900.
Ok, so it could be Western propaganda but blimey that was a tough watch.
She is right to be frightened.
I don’t suppose it’s feasible for a force from non-NATO countries to get in there to enforce a no fly zone on both combatants and subsequently deploy a Peacekeeping force on ground eventually. Presumably UN would broker that..but Russia likely to veto?
I'm not sure who would have the appetite for that.
It's feasible, but there would need to be a degree of agreement from Russia or it would just add more guns and another dimension to a gun fight. And yeah, they'd flat out veto I reckon.
Edit to add: also what @airvent said.
I don’t suppose it’s feasible for a force from non-NATO countries to get in there to enforce a no fly zone on both combatants and subsequently deploy a Peacekeeping force on ground eventually. Presumably UN would broker that..but Russia likely to veto?
Lol.Does any non-NATO country have an airforce sufficiently large to enforce a no-fly zone? China probably...
Who had the stupid idea of veto at the UN and can it be overturned?
This is surprising and encouraging
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1499809466816077833?s=20&t=YOb1gcXOYLcYbAV90-_VxA
Who had the stupid idea of veto at the UN and can it be overturned?
I'm sure I read that it was seen as a 'gift' to the victors of WW2, whether it still is a sensible mechanism or not is very debateable.
After reading that the Russian conscripts receive 4 months of training I'm not surprised things aren't going to plan. 4 months!
Channel 4 news was horrible.
That car with the engine still running, a dead woman just outside the door slumped against it, a dead man in the passenger seat, dead. Car riddled with bullets.
My God.
Mate, there's some real horrific stuff out there for sure, saw similar early on, the Russians firing on civilians caught between them and ukranian forces and much worse.
