Sounds like Ukraine is more than Putin can handle
Rumours are he's about to declare martial law in Russia and begin conscription because he doesn't have the troops to carry on
The worrying thing is that he's backing himself ever tighter into a corner
With Russia's army busy in Ukraine, how does he police the Caucuses or Kahzakstan or even Belarus?
https://twitter.com/MarkUrban01/status/1499420122653638661?t=nPtchGj_he4l_Hw0xir1YQ&s=19
Interesting thread on state of Russian equipment
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1499164245250002944?t=FzTG80hbyf20S7wwnJPtYg&s=19
So blame should lie with all.
Blame lies with Putin. He's the one who ordered his troops to bombard cities full of innocent civilians. As far as I'm aware, NATO has not fired a shot in this war. Ukraine was attacked by Russia. NATO and Ukraine do not share the blame for this. It's all on Putin.
NATO has expanded, that’s clear.
Because countries apply to join, because they see the threat from Russia, which just now has invaded a country that wanted to join NATO, and has threatened nukes in response to any inteference from NATO members.
The problem here is not NATO.
"With Russia’s army busy in Ukraine, how does he police the Caucuses or Kahzakstan or even Belarus?"
With fear? A few days ago I might have posted that unrest in other bordering countries or provinces might drain resources and cause problems for Putin, I feel a bit differently now.
Rumours are he’s about to declare martial law in Russia and begin conscription because he doesn’t have the troops to carry on
Not much point in press-ganging conscripts if you already have tens of thousands sitting around starving and out of ammo and fuel.
Interesting thread about Russian paratroopers looking scary but being pretty much useless in real combat.
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1499393006004158466
Because countries apply to join, because they see the threat from Russia
Perhaps if Russia had been involved in western thinking from the start,then the other countries wouldnt have had anything to worry about.
That and the $30billion incentive fee.
@Pondo, I’m not saying there’s no reason to join NATO, but a previous poster mentioned NATO isn’t interested in expansionism. Well, maybe not as a collective. But certainly individual members are.
Our illegal wars haven’t always had us being on the good guys side irrespective of what our politicians say. There’s plenty of opinion pieces from way before this war started regarding the US and NATO’s expansion eastwards. There’s an awful lot more to it than just looking after our neighbours.
In this war the blame lies solely with Putin. I actually don’t think this is just about NATO, but Putin does appear to hold a grudge since Yugoslavia and has said this started then.
By the way, I’m completely anti war. Anti Putin and blame him entirely.
This is quite apt to how I feel at the moment:
“I'd like to share a revelation during my time here. It came to me when I tried to classify your species. I realized that you're not actually mammals. Every mammal on this planet instinctively develops a natural equilibrium with the surrounding environment but you humans do not. You move to an area and you multiply and multiply until every natural resource is consumed. The only way you can survive is to spread to another area. There is another organism on this planet that follows the same pattern. Do you know what it is? A virus. Human beings are a disease, a cancer of this planet. You are a plague.”
I am really wondering if the best thing to happen to this planet is for a Nuke to be fired. Incredibly depressing thought. But this is just going to go on and on. Until the next war. All the while we are killing this planet.
Apologies for going off on a tangent. (I’ve only had 2 beers so no excuse!)
"Not much point in press-ganging conscripts if you already have tens of thousands sitting around starving and out of ammo and fuel."
In the first instance: it's a form of punishment for dissenters and in the second; provides more canon fodder. At the very least' there's no downside for Putin in doing so.
If I find myself thinking what Putin might do I ask myself 'what would Stalin do?" It's not unthinkable that conscripts would be thrown into the fight with a modern day equivalent of the NKVD at their backs, threatening to shoot them if they don't advance.
Those Russian conscripts that have surrendered so far might be the lucky ones. What's to say that threats to persecute conscripts families won't soon be issued should they choose to surrender? We have to accept that for Putin nothing is unconscionable.
“I’d like to share a revelation during my time here. It came to me when I tried to classify your species. I realized that you’re not actually mammals. Every mammal on this planet instinctively develops a natural equilibrium with the surrounding environment but you humans do not. You move to an area and you multiply and multiply until every natural resource is consumed. The only way you can survive is to spread to another area. There is another organism on this planet that follows the same pattern. Do you know what it is? A virus. Human beings are a disease, a cancer of this planet. You are a plague.”
Yes we've all seen 'The Matrix' It's a quote from the movie.
Although some here would argue the case that it is all the fault of Russia.
Nice to see our usual resident lefties living up to the example of their messiah as useful idiots…
*slow handclap*
It’s worth watching Newscast on iplayer from tonight. Rory Stewart was on and talked a lot of sense (which is obviously why he’s no longer in the Tory party)
Please, can we chill out a bit and stay on topic?
With Russia’s army busy in Ukraine, how does he police the Caucuses or Kahzakstan or even Belarus?
Yeah I was thinking that too; presumably Putin believes he's suppressed e.g. the Chechens enough (i.e. killed 'em all) that there won't be uprisings elsewhere in the RF while the armed forces are in Ukraine...
Berlin residents waiting to take in Ukrainian families for the night, after they arrive by train…
https://twitter.com/glr_berlin/status/1499452207208574992?s=21
I do hope that Vlad's Rockford Files are giving him monumental gyp.
Does anyone remember the movie 'Threads' from 1984.
With all the talk of the cold war I seemed to remember the 'Protect and Survive' booklet and also remembered I'd seen a film set in the UK about a nuclear exchange, that was at the time pretty harrowing.
Apparently the film was shown the once, then locked away never to be repeated, not banned, just too bad to be put back on TV.
I've since found a few clips on You Tube, but that's about it. In the currently climate I don't think i would want to watch it again. A few scenes stick in the mind.
Of all the Apocalyptic movies both UK and US, and despite its small budget, it really is a pretty horrific if not well made production.
This was the trailer
And the cinematic poster for it.
I don’t think Putin wants WW3, I think he wants territory. He may or may not be mad but he is acting as a Tsar ruling over an empire would.
I'm not even sure the territory is that important any more, he wants ratings! Like the Tsars and the Roman Emperors, he wants to be liked, but doesn't posses any likeable qualities but does posses an all conquering megalomaniac streak, so he just reverts to type... Feigned popularity is as good as real popularity in his eyes, so... 🤷🏻♂️
Anyway... Speaking of Russian Tsars and the Roman Empire again...
On 15th March 44 BC Julius Caesar was assassinated
On 15th March 1917 Tsar Nicholas II abdicated before he could be overthrown
On 15th March 1923 Lenin suffered his 3rd and final stroke, all but killing him off.
11 days people... 11 more days! 🤔
Joking aside though, I'm guessing there's a significant reason the ICC aren't pissing about with preparing the evidence for a war crime trial against Putin and his cronies... They don't normally start this soon I am sure!
The way things are escalating for Putin, things could potentially go very sour, very quickly. The irony that he could be begging NATO to get involved to take him to the Hague rather than letting his own population get medieval on his ass would be something else!
If you flick BBC News on now (this weeks Hardtalk) they’re interviewing writer Andrew Kurkov, a Russian who’s lived his life in Ukraine
It’s well worth a watch to get a handle on it all. He’s just referred to this as ‘the best university for an independent Ukraine’
Russian troops attacking the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, the largest in Europe. So that’s his plan, if he can’t have Ukraine then he’ll make sure no one else can either.
Live feed from plant below
March the 15th ?. My Brother in laws birthday is the 14th and i got him a bottle of quality Mead.
I think we should finish the bottle the same night 😆
Kadyrov has tied his fate to Putin, should there be rumblings in the Caucasus I would expect him to clamp down brutally.
I would expect in the Stans' the respective government's are keeping a very close eye on their populations and not looking to antagonize uncle Vlad in any way right now.
If we use our imaginations, there's a few options Putin could take to send out a warning. Trump dropped the 'mother of all bombs' on a near deserted mountain range in Afghanistan, sending out a message to NK, it had the largest non nuclear warhead. Would you trust Putin not to go one step further? Maybe throw a small nuclear artillery shell into the desert? He'll just call it a 'test' firing?
Rory Stewart’s opinion was that if Putin is really cornered then he’d probably have no qualms about launching a tactical nuclear warhead at Kyiv.
That’s pretty scary shit
Does everyone else feel like this all feels totally surreal? I never thought I’d see these questions even raised.
Will somebody use a tactical nuclear weapon against a European city?
It appears that’s where we now are
^^ An ex head of NATO last night said if nukes were used in ukraine then NATO involvement in ukraine is inevitable...
Oh great… the largest nuclear power plant in Europe is presently on fire. Russian troops are shooting the firefighters trying to put it out
If it goes up it’ll be Chernobyl x 10
Maybe no need for those tactical nuclear weapons after all..
It is right at the front door of the station, wild, camera looks to be on that building just in front of the 1 building here, if you rewind back you can see that 1 building about an hour ago, camera spun round.
https://www.google.com/maps/ @47.5041661,34.586806,3a,16.8y,340.12h,93.11t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1s-47_kP6LJ2nNmy64h9gO4A!2e0!6shttps:%2F%2Fstreetviewpixels-pa.googleapis.com%2Fv1%2Fthumbnail%3Fpanoid%3D-47_kP6LJ2nNmy64h9gO4A%26cb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile.gps%26w%3D203%26h%3D100%26yaw%3D309.7986%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i13312!8i6656
^^ That link above just takes me to a Google map centred on my own house. Fairly sure we aren't nuclear powered though, or taking fire?
Wonder which wind direction that region is going to have over the next week?
I suspect we'll know by morning if there is a containment leak or such there.
Sorry, Google map link working now.
His “intelligence” on Ukraine is woeful basically because he has surrounded himself in an echo chamber, nobody will disagree with him and he has romanticised about being welcomed as a liberator believing that Ukrainians actually believe his hype anyway and would be easily swaye
Interesting that someone close to him has said that. I've been wondering if he actually believes what he's saying himself or if it's just a line for public consumption.
Question for the older forumites, how does the present situation compare to the Cuban missile crises? I mean just in terms of public feeling, was that more or less scary than now, did nuclear war look more or less likely then then today?
Russian troops attacking the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, the largest in Europe. So that’s his plan
There is no plan any more... The "plan" went out of the window the moment Kyiv proved it wouldn't capitulate after 2/3 days.
Oh great… the largest nuclear power plant in Europe is presently on fire. Russian troops are shooting the firefighters trying to put it out
If it goes up it’ll be Chernobyl x 10
Maybe no need for those tactical nuclear weapons after all..
Binners... PLEASE! I'm actually worried for your mental health right now mate. We're all seriously ****ing anxious for sure, but as Squirrelking kindly explained there's no way that a nuclear plant can go off like a bomb unless the reactor superheats and a runaway thermonuclear reaction begins... Which is what happened @ Chernobyl. Your reactions aren't healthy! Have a pint, have a spliff... Take a day or two out of here, and go out on your bike! Whatever it takes...
The Russian troops shooting firefighters though! I don't think there is a strong enough word to describe actions like that... Vindictive doesn't quite cut it for sure!
I think it's safe to say Putin's thrown any thoughts about winning hearts and minds that he might have had out of the window! 🤷🏻♂️
An ex head of NATO last night said if nukes were used in ukraine then NATO involvement in ukraine is inevitable…
I think the rest of the world came to that conclusion the moment Vlad made the Nuclear threat!
mboy
Free MemberThere is no plan any more… The “plan” went out of the window the moment Kyiv proved it wouldn’t capitulate after 2/3 days.
I know there's a desire to show the russians as incompetent, but they didn't rock up with a 200k troops with only a plan A.
If there is any radioactive emissions from the plant... Winds appear to be blowing to the South/ East over there for the next few days.
there’s no way that a nuclear plant can go off like a bomb unless the reactor superheats and a runaway thermonuclear reaction begins… Which is what happened @ Chernobyl.
Even that's overstating things.
1. It cannot explode like a nuclear bomb. A nuclear bomb requires highly enriched uranium or plutonium. Reactor fuel isn't enriched enough to sustain the type of reaction that a bomb uses.
2. It can overheat and explode in a thermal explosion like at Chernobyl. In that case, the operators were trying to restart the reactor incorrectly and withdrew all the control rods. It was a very bad accident that spread radiation across Europe, but it wasn't a nuclear explosion. That's about as bad an accident it's possible to have with a reactor because the shielding around the core was breached and the graphite core burned.
3. The reactor in Ukraine is a light-water reactor, not a graphite reactor like the Chernobyl one. If the core is breached by artillery fire, it will be more like the Fukushima accident in Japan. Still bad, but an order of magnitude less bad than Chernobyl because you don't have hundreds of tonnes of burning graphite core.
https://twitter.com/james_acton32/status/1499543052435836928
Just came on here because I heard about the fire in the nuclear power station. For ****'s sake Putin! Enough already!!
Even that’s overstating things.
I don't know anywhere near as much about Nuclear Power as you do for sure, but I was putting things in laymans terms to stop Binners and any other "end of days" prophets having an anxiety meltdown...
Apologies if my terminology wasn't totally correct!
I have however also learnt more about Nuclear Power now though, so thank you for the detailed explanation... 👍🏻
Plan A: take Kyiv and the whole of Ukraine with it.
Plan B: take the east, half of Kyiv and the Black Sea coastline.
Plan C: take the East of the country and half of Kyiv, leaving, or negotiating (wishful thinking) the return of Odessa to Ukraine.
Plan D: don't really want to go there....
I think the answer lies between B and C, with Ukraine divided like cold war Germany. Putin will like the symbolism and the West will know where it stands, the situation will have a farmiliar ring to it, though what's left of Ukraine won't be full of NATO forces.
Who knows, Putin might gift the currently occupied region West of the river, North of Kyiv to the Belarussians, Kyiv having great historical significance to all three countries (would be a good sell back home).
If the Ukrainians lose Odessa then there's not a lot left to defend that is of great strategic importance, Kyiv will be left till the end and might be spared (but divided) if negotiations are successful.
In the meantime Vlad wants the West to be fretting about nukes whilst he marches on to Moldova. If he gets there quickly then he might stop and negotiate, if the Ukranians hold on in the South West then it could drag on.
From the Beeb:
Safety of nuclear plant 'secured' - official
The head of the Zaporozhia regional state administration says that the safety of the Zaporizhzia power plant is "secured".Alexander Starukh posted just one sentence on Facebook, saying that he had spoken to the director of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station in Enerhodar, and had been assured of its safety.
"The director of the ZNPP assured me that at the moment, the nuclear security of the object is secured," he wrote.
It comes as top Ukrainian officials have warned of a possible nuclear meltdown due to reported Russian shelling there.
Is put me or are there more people up late on the forum these days?
Im usually on here but at night/early morning but it's much livelier than usual.
The Australian members will be on soon.
Plan C: take the East of the country and half of Kyiv, leaving, or negotiating (wishful thinking) the return of Odessa to Ukraine.
He wants the whole country but the best he can achieve is probably half the country (more is a bonus) or the entire area east of the river, plus negotiate the remaining Ukraine not to join NATO. This is provided Ukraine is able to prevent further advancement. The further west they go they more they will suffer.
As for pressing the button Putin will be removed by his own people before he can even put his finger on the button. His inner circle will not permit that because they don't want to live in a world that they cannot enjoy (no more expensive holidays, expensive brands, nice cars, parties etc so what's the point living like normal mortal having to cook own meals using firewood).
Is put me or are there more people up late on the forum these days?
Yes, late because I am also listening to news source from different parts of the world.
Firefighters are finally at the scene
Is put me or are there more people up late on the forum these days?
It's not you, I can't stop doomscrolling about the Ukraine war
Assuming the Russians don't actually shell the reactors, the problem is keeping the cooling systems going. The reactors have apparently been shut down but they still need the cooling systems running because there are highly radioactive byproducts of fission in the fuel rods (not uranium, but stuff that has formed when uranium was bombarded with neutrons under normal reactor operations). This is what happened at Fukushima - the reactors were shut down and were intact after the earthquake, but the tsunami destroyed the backup diesel generators and there was no electricity to power the cooling systems. The operators just sat there for days and watched while the reactors overheated and there was a hydrogen explosion. The Ukrainian reactors need external power to avoid the same fate.
The only solution I can see is something like the Iraqi situation back in 1990. The goal back then was limited to kicking Iraqi forces out of Kuwait, not overthrowing Hussein.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1499590983989743617
Johnson says Putin's 'reckless actions' now 'threaten the safety of all of Europe'
Another sound bite or actual threat of potential military action?
The only solution I can see is something like the Iraqi situation back in 1990. The goal back then was limited to kicking Iraqi forces out of Kuwait, not overthrowing Hussein.
Sounds appropriate
