I don’t know - Lukashenko must be feeling pretty nervous right now. He is 100% dependant on Russian troops and money for his continued survival. Was reading about the rebuilding of Aleppo yesterday - it is being paid for by Chechnya! But Chechnya has a very small economy, something like 80% of its income is from….Russian subsidies!
Aren’t Siberia and Alaska only about 50 miles apart at the narrowest. I mean, if it’s left undefended??? Then again you could probably invade and nobody would know for years!
Background on Belarus - Lukashenko doesn't really want to do it. Belarusians don't want him to do it. But he might have to.
https://www.politico.eu/article/belarus-ukraine-war-russia-alexander-lukashenko-dodges-weaves/
There’s a good reason for that caution. Joining the attack against Ukraine would be hugely unpopular — a survey found that only 3 percent of Belarusians support such an idea, according to Ryhor Astapenia, who leads Belarus Initiative at Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia Program — and it could break the military, which is one of the key pillars keeping Lukashenko in power.
“The Belarusian army has never fought anywhere, the army is not prepared for external conflicts,” said Valery Sakhashchyk, a retired army lieutenant colonel and former commander of the 38th Airborne Brigade based in the city of Brest near the border with Ukraine. “Lukashenko is far from being a fool. He understands that there is a large risk that the Belarusian army will not succeed, that it will suffer heavy losses, and then his last supporters could very well turn away from him — and that would be a disaster [for Lukashenko].”
Aren’t Siberia and Alaska only about 50 miles apart at the narrowest. I mean, if it’s left undefended??? Then again you could probably invade and nobody would know for years!
The real risk would be from China
They'd love Siberia resources.....
Actually it was a coup in 2014 where pro Russian govt was overthrown
Followed by elections in 2019 which Zelenskyy won by a landslide. Oh and for all Putin's idiotic drivel about cleansing neo nazis, far right groups polled about 5% in that election.
The real risk would be from China
They’d love Siberia resources…..
...and they believe much of it is in fact rightfully theirs, and was sneakily 'stolen' from them in 1858:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Aigun
Aleppo yesterday – it is being paid for by Chechnya! But Chechnya has a very small economy, something like 80% of its income is from….Russian subsidies!
Chechnya has a strong connection to some of the middle eastern countries so the funds might come from there.
Aren’t Siberia and Alaska only about 50 miles apart at the narrowest. I mean, if it’s left undefended??? Then again you could probably invade and nobody would know for years!
You know how the Russian's have logistics problems in Ukraine? I've heard Siberia is quite large and there aren't a lot of gas stations along the way.
Oh and for all Putin’s idiotic drivel about cleansing neo nazis,
At least one senior neo nazi has died during the invasion. Vladimir Zhoga commander of the neo-nazi Sparta battalion died.
Okay so he was on the Russians side but thats a minor detail.
Putin is desperate to shore up his faltering war and he’s leaving the rest of Russia unguarded to do it
I don’t think that’s actually true… but he could if he wanted. Assuming he really does have China onboard. Who else would look to invade even an inch of Russia?
…and they believe much of it is in fact rightfully theirs, and was sneakily ‘stolen’ from them in 1858:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Aigun/blockquote >
Yes, the old guards are still sore about this as far as the news I received from far east source. For the moment they let it be but I foresee them wanting it back in future.
Assuming he really does have China onboard. Who else would look to invade even an inch of Russia?
China is onboard but I don't think they plan to invade Russia an inch. They don't have to as they have other means in exchange. i.e. finance and military hardware etc.
Who else would look to invade even an inch of Russia?
No one, Russia for various reasons shown by Napoleon and Hitler is pretty invasion proof from the west, and given that there's literally nothing worth invading for in the east, why bother? I mean the geography of Russia does give it issues, but of 99% problems, invasion ain't one as that well know strategist JZ notes.
Putin is desperate to shore up his faltering war and he’s leaving the rest of Russia unguarded to do it
I don’t think that’s actually true… but he could if he wanted. Assuming he really does have China onboard. Who else would look to invade even an inch of Russia?
No-one would invade. But there are plenty of nationalist areas (notably Chechnya, South Ossetia, Dagestan, Ingushetia, etc etc) that need to be kept in line with military force. By moving troops out of those places he's potentially increasing the risk of trouble/destabilisation at home.
Russian armor heading in the direction of Ukraine, apparently filmed in Krasnoyarsk, Siberia.
Krasnoyarsk is like 4000 miles from Kyiv! That's several days travel, plus time to unload, move, fuel, generally prepare the tanks and get them where they need to be. A week or two before these lot are involved?
potentially increasing the risk of trouble/destabilisation at home
Very good point. Thanks.
Yes hadn’t thought of that - I think especially in the South they are deploying quite a few of their police style militia units too, so it has to be a bit of a risk.
I’m not sure how more armour will help them. If this war has proved anything it is that, on this battlefield at least, the infantryman is King, and the Russians seem massively reluctant to engage on foot, hence lots of pictures of destroyed tanks. A tank without infantry support is just a sitting duck.
And yes I’m just an armchair lieutenant but even the most basic reading of tactics will tell you this.
I’m not sure how more armour will help them.
after 3 weeks of fighting they probably need to rotate out units for refitting and rest.
A simple question, would EU let a battalion of Chinese army stationed in Sweden? Just a few soldiers with pistols. Is that a threat?
To return to chewie’s post earlier that nobody has directly answered.
If that is what a democratic Swedish government decided on then, yes. The EU would allow it. How could they stop it? But the problem with that hypothetical question is that it would never ever happen without a dramatic change in the geo-political environment. Why would Sweden do that? Because they were afraid of an EU invasion? Because they wanted to invade the EU? Because they decided that the Chinese political system was so fantastic that they wanted to remodel in the country on the Chinese example? None of these things are even remotely likely.
This shows up why the Putin excuse is so risible.. NATO has no intention of attacking Russia, has never had an intention of attacking Russia.. The whole ‘buffer state’ argument is a charade to disguise the fact that this is all about Russian Nationalism & a desire to regain their empire while turning the clock back to when Russia hadn’t lost the Cold War. Putin’s speech yesterday attests to that.
I’m not sure how more armour will help them
It won't. There's a somewhat famous after-war report that outlines the difference in battlefield logistics between 21st Ordnance a Group and their German equivalents in the Normandy campaign, In it, one officer neatly sums up that as well as guns and ammo and all the other essential war fighting materiel such as replacement parts, the greatest effect on morale of troops was the fact that they could go back from the front line at regular intervals, get proper food, a ration of beer, have a hot shower, brush their teeth, and change their underpants, something the Germans singularly failed to do.
The Russians in Ukraine have been war fighting now with no break for 3 weeks, at that point it doesn't matter if your the "most powerful army in the world" TM the effectiveness of your soldiers is probably decayed to such a level that they're ineffective now, already. Replacement units coming all the way from Siberia is too late. It's a sign of how little Putin thinks of his soldiers; and these are the "elite" units
so it has to be a bit of a risk
And that speech clipped up the page... he clearly has "trouble/destabilisation at home" on his mind. He's talking about "spitting out" Russians not Ukrainians there. Depressing times ahead for the Russian people.
It’s a sign of how little Putin thinks of his soldiers; and these are the “elite” units
Are they the elite, or are the elite actually placed in internal security roles? And the army kept weaker to reduce the power of the army leadership?
My understanding is that the security forces have the power. Their job is to stop the army from overthrowing Putin. Dictators always have to be wary of army officers so the officer corps is composed of people who have shown unflinching loyalty, which means never disagreeing, which basically means incompetent fools. They elite forces like the paratroopers, but their job is actually to subdue the civilians of the areas they invade. That's why they got slaughtered when they met a real army. They also have regular (contract) soldiers, but they are apparently treated appallingly badly. Then they have conscripts. The life of a conscript is a miserable hell. It looks like a lot of Russian soldiers have just abandoned their equipment and deserted in Ukraine. Not really surprising.
Paranoia and fear surely must be ratcheting up in all levels of Russian and Belarussian society and evidently right to the top.
There’s a somewhat famous after-war report that outlines the difference in battlefield logistics between 21st Ordnance a Group and their German equivalents in the Normandy campaign, In it, one officer neatly sums up that as well as guns and ammo and all the other essential war fighting materiel such as replacement parts, the greatest effect on morale of troops was the fact that they could go back from the front line at regular intervals, get proper food, a ration of beer, have a hot shower, brush their teeth, and change their underpants, something the Germans singularly failed to do.
You been listening to Al Murray? He was talking about that very thing the other day.
Lols I thought it sounded familiar. To be honest I’m getting all my news about this invasion from 1941…
have a hot shower, brush their teeth, and change their underpants,
My old neighbour Steve who died at the end of 2019 was a Royal Marine Commando in Normandy. His only complaint was having to take a shit in hedges. As a sniper he was right on the front line and they'd been watching a chateau for a while to be sure the Germans had left. He'd made it clear to his comrades he was going to be first in just so he could sit on a toilet. The only problem he recounted was that when he got in it looked like half the German army had used it before him.
They elite forces like the paratroopers, but their job is actually to subdue the civilians of the areas they invade.
Not really. The Russians have plenty of internal security forces for that who are trained and equipped for the job.
Problem for the elite forces is the plan failed.
I think the idea was they would grab the strategic airfields to stop them being destroyed. Then a mix of the tank columns getting to them quickly and air reinforcements would let them hold it.
Problem was the tanks didnt get in and their air transports would be target practice since they dont have air supremacy and, even if they did, with all the weapons being sent to them the Ukranians arent short on stingers and the equivalents.
It was reported they lost several plane loads of paratroopers when they were shot down.
Without those reinforcements they were doomed.
I hadn’t considered that Putin talking up a “purge” could be as much about finding others to blame and punish for military/strategic performance as it is about signalling that civil dissent will be crushed…
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1504441427929047041?s=21
Staggering but somewhat predictable.
I don't see a way out of this for putin. Hopefully he'll get taken down from the inside.
But for those who worry about prodding the bear.. You think Biden will sit by forever? He may be a 'dem' but he's still a true blue American who won't be seen to back down either.
I think that's why the Americans have been relatively tentative so far...
Putin must be aware of the path he's taking all this on.. It's fun to make fun of putin, but he seriously can't be as stupid as he seems, can he?
It’s a bit like Trump. People who never lose as people don’t say no to them, feel the normal rules cease to apply.
You been listening to Al Murray?
He has a WW2 podcast doesn't he? Not for a while (got a bit same-y) but he loves his Normandy, so I'm not surprised. It's pretty well known after all.
It’s a bit like Trump. People who never lose as people don’t say no to them, feel the normal rules cease to apply.
...and of course Zelenskyy is actually one of the people who did say 'no' to Trump with negative consequences for military etc aid:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump%E2%80%93Ukraine_scandal
which shows he's good at saying no to these twits, but makes me worry even more about the next US election.
It’s fun to make fun of putin, but he seriously can’t be as stupid as he seems, can he?
He hasn't lead a normal life for a very long time, his view is distorted by being surrounded by sycophants and yes men (whether those are true believers or just hustling for personnel gain). I am not sure anyone is in a position to challenge him at all, never mind dethrone him. And as bleak as the current situation is in Ukraine I suspect the long game is worse for Russia as his cronies need to explain the failures, everyone could be in the crosshairs. There will be a ratcheting up of purges and secret police state activity, neighbours spying on neighbours out of fear and to survive. It is going to be ****ing horrible.
This is an interesting read on strategy, especially on how to end the war.
https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/putins-folly-a-case-study-of-an-inept-strategist/
It’s fun to make fun of putin, but he seriously can’t be as stupid as he seems, can he?
I think he is.
Putin content to pour as many tanks, soldiers and bombs as possible into the fight, if he's forced to negotiate a way out he will want maximum leverage.
Doesn't bode well for Ukrainians
Although it seems that UA making inroads at recapturing Kherson, (only city Russians have captured)
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1504467522711552004?t=GCs0weNxN93c7FE7NZNJvA&s=19
Meanwhile Ukrainian grannies don't take shit
https://twitter.com/mrsorokaa/status/1503448592031363079?t=klVG5_0gPQaola4wAPTTbA&s=19
From reading the last two pages of this it seems Putin is doing an excellent job of slowly hanging himself.
putin is definitely NOT stupid - look at how he came to power and has stayed there for 20+ years, becoming ever more powerful and the wealthiest oerson in the world; until his Ukrainian misadventure everything he did went, generally, unchallenged by the west.
He came to believe he was invincible and completely misread how Ukraine- and the west - would respond; also over-estimated possible Chinese support.
A living example of how absolute power corrupts absolutely.
Hubris.
Hold the party poppers, he's not dead and buried yet.
No wonder the Russians are surrendering - the universal power of grannies!!
I think Putin will only dig in harder now
The advances may be stalled but if they sit still they can still inflict huge amounts of damage as Ukrainians come to them.
Meanwhile Uzbekistan showing some definite testicular fortitude
https://twitter.com/b_nishanov/status/1504422639506534406?t=E9adyg2zE4gcFg5AdItRmA&s=19
mattyfez
Free MemberIt’s fun to make fun of putin, but he seriously can’t be as stupid as he seems, can he?
I very much doubt he's stupid. But even a powerful train can be on the wrong tracks. Smart people can believe they're smarter than everyone else- when they're wrong they can assume it's everyone else that's wrong and they're right. They can get too used to easy wins and believe themselves to be unbeatable. All sorts of things. Delusion and intelligence are two different things.
Hopefully he’ll get taken down from the inside.
with a frozen sausage
Well... after Sting saying he won't perform any more private gigs for Russian Oligarchs, now Bono has written a poem for the people of Ukraine
https://twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/1504492061684375560?s=20&t=ydXTnjmeseatOCLVu2sQ8A
The pressures on, for sure. No word of any specific action planned by Bob Geldof, as yet
No wonder the Russians are surrendering – the universal power of grannies!!
I was in Grozny in mid 90s and remember a bunch of said grannies haranguing a Russian tank that was dug in in the middle of the main road until they upped and left. I was more than a little bewildered and impressed with what had just happened
The pressures on, for sure. No word of any specific action planned by Bob Geldof, as yet
shit's gettin' real fo shu
shit’s gettin’ real fo shu
Not until James Blunt slams Putin on twitter.
Yeah, come on Blunt!
Talking about the meeting of celebrity and politics… someone post Arnie’s little message, it’s actually quite good. Hang on… I’ll find it…
Not until James Blunt slams Putin on twitter.
To be fair, James Blunt is supposed to have history of facing down the Russian army
To be fair, James Blunt is supposed to have history of facing down the Russian army
Tank commander IIRC
Is Putin stupid?
No but even very clever people are capable of very stupid decisions.
CVRT Scimitar - so not strictly a ‘tank’, more a light armoured reconnaissance vehicle…. Blunt that is.
Not until James Blunt slams Putin on twitter.
He's got a few targets...
https://twitter.com/JamesBlunt/status/1490785719664664576?s=20&t=ca6pt35bJ_t2fuTk91-aVA
That Arnie speech is quite something! Very impressed…
Here's a slightly different perspective:
Arnie. What a legend.
He does those emotive pieces to camera really well. Maybe he was a better actor than we gave him credit for?
I think he actually was (and is) a good actor. There was one film where they were all in some futuristic prison and he was the old lag who staged a diversion to allow the goodie to escape, and him screaming and ranting in German as they dragged him off was really memorable to me.
Here’s a slightly different perspective:
It just parrots Russian propaganda. There's just enough bits that are true to go along with the outright lies but it conveniently ignores all of Russia's prior involvement.
Yes, the idea that a peaceful democratic government was overthrown in 2014 by American finance comes straight out of the Kremlin’s alternative reality
Yeah, peppered with truths… but the bit about the presence of the Russian military facilitating a free vote almost stopped me reading. Made it to the end though. Nothing I haven’t read elsewhere, it’s a compilation of one sided accusations.
Arnie’s piece to camera was good wasn’t it… admitting recent problems in the USA, past atrocities in Europe (and his own family’s part in them), and filled with love and admiration for the people of Russia.
Some great posts on this thread again, really liked the Arnie piece to camera
Yes, the idea that a peaceful democratic government was overthrown in 2014 by American finance comes straight out of the Kremlin’s alternative reality
Since then there has been a democratic election which gave Zelenskyy and his party overwhelming majorities.
Anyone seen the footage HERE of the Russian tank ambushed in Mariupol?
@ 1:20 just as the smoke cleats a bag is thrown to the guy left agonising at the side of the road. What you think it is? First aid?
I thought this was interesting
Not pleasant to watch alpin.
Other than that, a lone tank wondering around an urban area with no infantry?
What on earth is Russia playing at, utterly symbolic.
It was taken out by the Azov battalion so I doubt that was a first aid kit...
Other than that, a lone tank wondering around an urban area with no infantry?
What on earth is Russia playing at
My thoughts too.
Sacrificial decoy?
Send one in, see what happens.
Took a wrong turning?
Trying to defect?
I thought this was interesting
Some of it. Tries too hard to make war “entertaining” to be comfortable watching for me. Perhaps that’s a culture clash as a non-USA watcher. Also claims we’re not being told lots of things that I already knew just from BBC and ITN(Channel4News) reporting… again, might be very different in the USA I suppose.
But some of his analysis is odd. Claiming that lack of air support north of Kyiv is just the Russians overlooking basics of using combined forces, or a communication failure, rather than even mentioning the possibility that the air cover isn’t there because of anti-air capabilities of those defending that area.
Oh, the pipeline back to Belerus stuff was very interesting. It’s going to be very vulnerable in places though, surely?
Task and Purpose is just a loud YouTuber who's hit it big since Russia started kicking off.
https://socialblade.com/youtube/channel/UCSq3p5NKEtyp5Rjd4ctiEbg
Any takers for this?
Why are companies, and individuals in professional settings, avoiding calling this a war? I’m seeing it on their PR, internal emails, talking to people.
Events in Ukraine
News from Ukraine
What’s happening in Ukraine
Situation in Ukraine
The mess in Ukraine
Due to Ukraine
I've since picked up "certain events going on in the world", "horrible world events".
Without links to actual examples we can’t try and answer the question due to a complete lack of context.
bikes - some people and organisations (in their public pronouncements) want to avoid uncomfortable truths.
The same approach is evident when using 'passed away' instead of died.
I'm sure there'll be views that this sort of behaviour 'respects sensitivities' but that's rubbish; it's an attempt to duck reality.
Just say it how it is.
No context required.
OK... Having read a bit about the footage it appears that the sack I referred to is likely a torso thrown from the second tank that was attacked.... Delete if necessary.
Yes, I think it's best to not post any combat videos at all. A week or two back an analyst on Twitter pointed out that the drone footage of tanks blowing up (or the helicopter shootdown) are deliberate ambushes, that's why the drone was sitting there with the camera running. When you see the spectacular videos of the tanks exploding, that means that the crew inside have been incinerated alive, so you're basically watching a snuff propaganda video. Once I had that pointed out to me, I realized it was best to not post any combat videos, even if corpses weren't visible.
The truth is gradually filtering back to Russia, it's just too big to hide.
Hence his rather brutal warning issued yesterday. He is now seeing his own people as the enemy too. Well, he always did really.
Epic paranoia on display.