Schwalbe Mad Vlad
Please please please release a mud tyre with this name.
"I think Putin’s objective is to totally occupy the whole of Ukraine and install a puppet regime."
What you want and what you get... Its fairly common knowledge that Putin sees Ukraine as 'The Ukraine". But consider this:
Were that convoy composed of empty vehicles it would have achieved a strategic aim for the Russian forces. We in the West have been obsessed with it for 4 days, whilst the situation in Kyiv remains stable in comparison to what has been happening elsewhere in the country.
Half of Ukraine and all of the Black Sea coastline might be the fall back position but it would still be an enormous victory for Putin.
If Russia occupies the east there could be a massive exodus of Ukranians fleeing West and Putin would find it easier to 'Belorussify' the eastern territory, as opposed to having to deal with a nationwide insurrection.
From an Israeli news report about broken down Russian equipment which actually went on air. I know words cant Express how shitty this whole thing is but this made me smile
https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1499380929567072265?t=QSbHn44YzDS_gT9YGgfhnQ&s=08
Or his objective was the South all along?
Whatever territorial gain he achieves he will claim as his objective all along, so we'll never know. We don't know if he still considers taking all of Ukraine a viable proposition, but he will be hoping for an outcome that allows him not lose face. Not sure that exists.
He may take some more Black Sea ports, but his bigger problem is that there will be f all shipping arriving there, or any other Russian port.
Sanctions will continue at the current level as long as his troops are within Ukraine's borders.
There may be a few too many armchair military experts among us but when it comes to tyres.....
You do know the torch-waving nazi parades are real though right?
I do - but i'm pretty sure the Ukrainian security services already had a handle on them...
Half of Ukraine and all of the Black Sea coastline might be the fall back position but it would still be an enormous victory for Putin.
No, because...
Sanctions will continue at the current level as long as his troops are within Ukraine’s borders.
"Sanctions will continue at the current level as long as his troops are within Ukraine’s borders."
And Putin won't care.
That's the problem with sanctions, asset-freezing, sports bans etc - at some point we either tear them down or we just cause further isolationism.
What do you mean 'armchair military experts'?
I've read Biggles books.
Just call me Air Vice-Marshall.
Thought this was a good thread. Putin and the oligarchs have turned Russia into a shell that doesn't produce anything, doesn't export anything but fossil fuels, and is going to collapse under the sanctions:
https://twitter.com/VinzenzHediger/status/1499325076080054272
“Sanctions will continue at the current level as long as his troops are within Ukraine’s borders.”
And Putin won’t care.
https://twitter.com/samagreene/status/1499388279749292035
https://twitter.com/samagreene/status/1499388290612580354
The best the West can hope for is to hang the curtain rails for the new iron curtain down the length of the Dnipro river. In order to do that Ukraine needs to either hold on to Odessa, or somehow wrench it back in peace negotiations.
It could be Putin's biggest bargaining chip, as I suggested earlier, he could trade it for all the land east of the Dnipro and in ceding it he would claim to show how he is able to 'compromise' in order to find a peacefull solution.
Sorry to be so cynical bit ultimately, a lot of the supply the Ukranians with arms to fight an underground resistance narrative sounds like a Star Wars script. Is this David and Goliath or Luke Skywalker vs Darth Vader?
Wouldn't be hard for Putin to turn the supply of aid, arms, and support to Ukraine as another reason to stick it out and great evidence of NATO aggression and expansion to sell it back home.
I sent a message to a friend of mine in Moscow this morning, his reply was "Yeah, things are getting worse. Our government is going crazy"
People in Moscow know what's going on and they don't all agree with it.
You do know the torch-waving nazi parades are real though right?
That link is 4 years old. A lot has happened since then. Although to be fair I have no idea if the nazis are more active or less now.
@doris5000 - thanks for posting that up, its a really interesting analysis.
So basically, Russia was in terminal decline anyway, due to its financially illiterate, clueless, corrupt government, but the sanctions have just turbo-charged that economic decline to a huge degree
Stuff you don't really think about like Boeing and Airbus pulling out of maintenance contracts means that all commercial airliners will be grounded within 2 weeks. In a country the size of Russia, I'm sure no more internal flights will have a huge impact, and they can't fly anywhere but internally anyway
There may be a few too many armchair military experts among us but when it comes to tyres…..
The one area I am, possibly ironically, a lot more qualified than most on here to talk about… 😂 Although not directly military tyres… But still.
Schwalbe Mad Vlad
Has provided a few laughs already… 😂😉👍🏻
The imperial stormtroopers in that short “footage” up there though… 😂
Maybe that’s how Mad Vlad sees his troops? 🤷🏻♂️
The view from the EU. I bet they're really shocked at the complete inaction of this Russian-funded government to do anything to really sanction the oligarchs that pay for their election campaigns
https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1499361858284830720?s=20&t=qvBf0XHAGd04gZB8CdqfNQ
“apocryphal”
Yes I know what it means. I was just stating the reason.
"People in Moscow know what’s going on and they don’t all agree with it."
I watched that documentary about the independent Russian tv station last night. It was a portrait of diminishing hope as their world closed in on them incrementally an inexorably.
Whilst things might change with the Russian public, apathy is so firmly entrenched that it isn't going to happen overnight and when it does, the crackdown could be utterly ferocious.
Ask ypurself: Would Putin be prepared to inflict the same type of pain on his own citizens as he does to those of Ukraine?
Sadly it isn't surprising that Boris won't sanction his paymasters. Spineless load of shits
An Apache swarm from the Polish border would be a sight to see.
What? You think that would actually happen if the Russian airforce wasn't in the West?
So basically, Russia was in terminal decline anyway, due to its financially illiterate, clueless, corrupt government, but the sanctions have just turbo-charged that economic decline to a huge degree
I noticed that the rubble has been in steady decline against the dollar for the last 15 years or so. Even before the war it was worth around 1/3 of what it was in 2008, now it is worth 1/4. That series of posts above helps explain why it is so.
So, Russia are closing in on a couple of nuclear power plants in the south of the country. Theoretically, what would happen if they were targeted by missiles, would they go up or are they fairly safe from that sort of bombardment..? I've no clue.
A sober assessment from Chomsky:
So, Russia are closing in on a couple of nuclear power plants in the south of the country. Theoretically, what would happen if they were targeted by missiles, would they go up or are they fairly safe from that sort of bombardment.
The Russians wouldn't be closing in on them if they wanted to destroy them, they would do it from a safe distance. Most likely they want to capture the power stations
IRRC the Asoz brigade were far right extremists who have been incorporated into the Ukrainian national guard. This has supposedly reigned them in but seemingly not that much.
Not sure of the source but seems legit:
Ask ypurself: Would Putin be prepared to inflict the same type of pain on his own citizens as he does to those of Ukraine?
Yes… But for how long?
This isn’t Communist Russia any more, much of Russia might still act like it is communist and believe the state media, but if he wants to wage war on his own citizens (with what army, finances, supplies? 🤷🏻♂️) behind an iron curtain, he won’t be able to do it whilst being heavily committed in Ukraine at the same time!
@doris5000 – thanks for posting that up, its a really interesting analysis.
Very insightful indeed.
So basically, Russia was in terminal decline anyway, due to its financially illiterate, clueless, corrupt government, but the sanctions have just turbo-charged that economic decline to a huge degree
I don’t think Russia was in terminal decline as such, they just hadn’t realised how Globalised they had come (or rather Putin hadn’t) whilst at the same time being incompatible with his Imperialist views…
For Imperialism to work long term, the general public have to fully buy in to the “greater good”… Putin has pushed corrupt capitalism into Russia rather than trying to keep it out, he has essentially created a system that has provided himself with short term cash, but a system highly incompatible with providing any long term impetus on carrying out his Imperialist ideals…
The rest of the world has been all too happy to not pull the plug on the Russian economy for a long time now, because of the obvious gas and oil dependancy… Remove that dependancy, or find an alternative supplier, and as we’ve seen already the rest of the world can pull the financial plug on even one of the worlds largest economies in literally no time at all.
Make no mistake, Russia is going to experience extreme poverty all too soon, and the only way out will be if the EU/NATO/US are happy to prop it up again… And it’s quite clear that will no longer happen with Putin at the helm. Russian people faced with a choice of Putin induced extreme poverty or a ready and willing west helping them to rebuild their economy and bring all the luxuries back again, he won’t even make it to The Hague! 🤷🏻♂️
To quote a phrase… He’s screwed the pooch here!
Not sure of the source but seems legit:
yeah....of course it does if you're a fan of right wing politics, you do know how to use google?
I mean the tweet is real AFAICS
But yeah you're right I didn't check the opindia site and it's shady. Apologies.
But the Asov brigade is a real thing. We don't have to pretend everyone in Ukraine is a righteous hero to believe the invasion is wrong.
Azov Battalion has a political wing which seeks to eradicate non-whites and those with 'sexual perversions'.
Tommy Robinson posted the same information a few days ago,
And your point is?
Dunno....go on.... enlighten me?
Azov Battalion has a political wing which seeks to eradicate non-whites and those with ‘sexual perversions’.
There is plenty of far more unpleasant stuff associated with the Azov unit out there
Most of Europe has some form of far right nutter group (Polish group chasing non-white refugees etc), the nuances of it in the Ukrainian context are bound to be complex. However it shouldn't distract from the core issue of getting the Russians out of Ukraine, once peace comes then the Ukrainian President who is Jewish after all will have far more political clout to tackle the problem.
according to the the far right got less than 2% of the 2019 election vote. hardly rampant
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/03/russia-ukraine-conflict-top-10-war-myths-newsguard
They were incorporated and the state pays them salaries. Fairly unusual in a European context, no? It's not exactly a simple case of goodies Vs baddies.
Tommy Robinson posted the same information a few days ago,
A broken clock is right twice a day.
No-one (here at least) is claiming any of this makes Putin's supposed 'denazification' legitimate, but it is an interesting and concerning aspect of all this.
It does look like attrition is the way to go.
Of course we don't know how capable Russia military is, stories about their convoys running on only days worth of rations and fuel may or may not be western propaganda.
I hate to be the one to mention Sun-Tzu again, but with thier currency in trouble, 25% interest rates and the freezing of assets,it's simply a matter of when, not if, Russia will fall.
You need seriously robust logistics backing up the front line attack.
Why attack the front line when you can cut supply lines from the back end by ruining thier economy?
There seems to be a global effort to screw putin financially. It's not war of you simply stop doing business with someone.
Starve them out, so to speak
It does seem that, while the Russian army may seem to be disorganised and ill-equipped they are taking control of key cities. What is that tipping point where the Ukrainians have to consider a mass-evacuation/retreat and regroup to fight another day?
Sadly it isn’t surprising that Boris won’t sanction his paymasters. Spineless load of shits
A few of my family (who are raving Brexit-worshippers) seem to think that Johnson has single handedly lead the way with the EU following his lead! Where the hell they've got that idea from I have no idea. If the EU countries can immediately start freezing funds and siezing yachts etc then surely we, with out nww-found sovereignty should be able to do the same? Oh no, we have to give them 18 months notice and actively help them liquidate assets!
Anyway, back to the immediate problems and the people that really matter, the Ukrainian civilians.
A sober assessment from Chomsky:
The problem that all of these analysis never address is
1. It assumes Putin will make a rational decision to that of a similar western leader and that withdrawal of NATO from surrounding states will achieve some sort of detent or peace because it mistakenly asserts that what Putin wants to not have a threatening force on his border when in reality it's a zero sum game to him and he will invade as he will perceive it as weakness. He wins; you loose, if that hasn't been clear before, surely it bloody well should be by now (do we have to make another list of all the countries he done this to over the years, again?)
2. this analysis offers no alternative to the states that have joined, other than to be pawns in a game of "Please let's not be beastly to Putin"
I normally agree with Chomsky, but I think the NATO encroachment argument is a duff one, and is being used just to make anti-Imperialist attack's on the US. By all means make anti Imperialist attacks on the US, God knows they deserves critism, this isn't a sound one though.
Seeing a lot of tweets now saying that the Russian borders are pretty much all closed. Planes turning back mid-flight, lorries queuing up and people being stopped at road borders. Planes are already being seized by the leasing companies keen to get their planes back before the airlines keep them and flog them to pay debts.
Increasing rumours of martial law in Russia as of tonight.
Looks like the Iron Curtain is back.
Seeing a lot of tweets now saying that the Russian borders are pretty much all closed. Planes turning back mid-flight, lorries queuing up and people being stopped at road borders. Planes are already being seized by the leasing companies keen to get their planes back before the airlines keep them and flog them to pay debts.
Follows on from suggestion that tomorrows emergency Russian Parliamentary session will be to invoke martial law.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/03/russia-introduce-martial-law-war-ukraine/
