Ukraine

True, but a new leader could afford to be more pragmatic and withdraw without (personally) losing face in the that Putin would. Whether they would accept Russia as a whole losing face like that i don't know.
If a popular uprising lead to Putin's overthrow there is a window of opportunity there to deescalate this before the new hard man rises to the top
And since you bring up the Bolsheviks, we have never seen a civil war in a nuclear state... Not saying its likely, but revolutions do sometimes go that way. Who knows how that would play out

So what role can the UN play now?
It’s looking likely that a General Assembly resolution (no vetoes apply) for Russia to immediately stop using force will be passed tomorrow afternoon (New York time). It has no legally binding status, but can it influence anything?

That will not happen. Their system/culture etc is not build that way. Tsar was overthrown by the Bolsheviks revolution but was replaced by another form of “Tsar” and all the subsequent leaders were in various forms of “Tsar” in disguise and the latest incarnation is in Putin. Therefore, the system never changed at all. All of them have one thing in common “We are glorious powerful conquerors and we want more”.

Whilst, in Russia at least, there is a real history of reverting to type... The rest of the world could ill afford a "meet the new boss, same as the old boss" situation. I am pretty unaware of the political movers and shakers within Russia right now aside from Putin, Medvedev (Putins former puppet and whipping boy) and Navalny... With Putin gone, whatever was required, I can see significant pressure being put on any interim leader to hold a proper fair and democratic election in Russia ASAP. A Russia devoid of Putin induced anxiety in the voting booth, could well provide a significantly different result to that that has become expected over the last 2 decades... Russia is seemingly an even more "them and us" society than the UK is right now when it talks about the Generation divide. The Generation in the UK that voted to Leave the EU is the generation in Russia that have kept Putin in power, but the generation that voted to remain in the EU in the UK is the generation that would put a moderate like Navalny in the Kremlin...

How long would it last...? That's another story... Gorbachev was a ray of light for the west in Russia, but he didn't last long, Yeltsin had his ups and downs but was clearly easily corruptible, and the rest we know all too well...

But let's focus on the positives eh! 🤔

Does Putin care what the UN think? He thinks everyone is ganging up on him anyway, that would prove his point (in his head)
It already appears he has next to no friends, Lukashenko, Assad, Kadyrov and, erm...
Even Tokayev, who almost certainly owes his own position to Putin, hasn't come to his aid.

A member state can be removed from UN membership. But what good that would do exactly I could not say.

timbog160
Full Member
Signed. China has described it as a war, and indicated it may play a role in a ceasefire.

Very important too note that they are NOT saying that to their own populous. They are removing pro Ukrainian support from social media whilst allowing anything blaming the US/ the West for this.

Keeping their powder dry for Taiwan basically...

Another serious question, that I'm not sure has been raised as yet on here at least...

Looking at the width of the Dnieper River at parts, and understanding how relatively flat Ukraine is, and how averse it is to Nuclear Power (for obvious reasons), it looks like the Dnieper River has several HEP dams along its length that will not only provide power for vast swathes of the country, but also stops copious amounts of water from covering land downstream from their placement. One of which lies barely a few km upstream of Kyiv itself...

I'm not suggesting that Kyiv would be disappear underwater long term if the HEP just upstream from it was destroyed, Kyiv has clearly been there a hell of a lot longer than the dam has. However, given the size of the lake upstream from it, destruction of the dam could cause temporary flooding in and around Kyiv potentially as well as wiping out a significant electricity supply for the city.

Anyone with more intimate knowledge of Kyiv's facilities care to allay my fears...?

Ref the convoy – apparently it is not 40 miles long, but is a series of packets of vehicles – a significant number none the less. A large number are thought to be soft skinned logistics vehicles, suggesting a)they are anticipating a long stay b)not worried about air attacks…

So the question is when will the big assault come? I would imagine the Ukrainians are using their time to fortify the city. Further East one of the cities reports tramlines being chopped up and welded to make anti tank obstacles. Is it really 2022, or have we somehow gone back to 1942?

From what I've seen on Twitter, Ukraine have destroyed all the bridges on the route down to Kiev now, which is likely to cause significant delays for the Russian troops. That and reports are that said convoy is mostly Ural trucks full of supplies rather than soldiers. Remains to be seen though.

Have just seen a video on BBC News that they are suggesting is a handful of Russian soldiers that have given themselves up somewhere in the South of Ukraine... Doesn't look significant numbers wise, and they do look more like conscripts than professionals so I don't know how significant it is, but clearly any surrenders or defections are not being fed back through the Russian media at all, and we know just how Putin would treat those troops should they ever return home!

If a popular uprising lead to Putin’s overthrow there is a window of opportunity there to deescalate this before the new hard man rises to the top

No going to happen. I can only assume Putin's reference to history as seeing some of his predecessors as "weak" (they gave in to another system or way of life etc). The next leader might even be harder if s/he sees Putin (Russia is Putin in their context) as being "humiliated". Most leaders (mostly referring to aggressors) tend to romanticise their glorious past (their only reference point) to justify their current state without realising life could be better being dull and boring (human nature reject that) without the ups and downs. It is only wishful thinking if we think leaders like them can change dramatically. Probably they will only regret them when life is slowly disappearing from them (I bet those great conquerors will Not regret anything).

Does Putin care what the UN think? He thinks everyone is ganging up on him anyway, that would prove his point (in his head)

UN/NATO/EU etc all insignificant to Putin. The more the objections the more he takes it personally, the more he can justify his actions. At his position with such power his focus is to achieve his objective while the rest are irrelevant. This is the quality of a leader good or bad. i.e. determination.

Very important too note that they are NOT saying that to their own populous. They are removing pro Ukrainian support from social media whilst allowing anything blaming the US/ the West for this.

Keeping their powder dry for Taiwan basically…

They don't want to set "bad" example or give the people ideas.

I’m not suggesting that Kyiv would be disappear underwater long term if the HEP just upstream from it was destroyed, Kyiv has clearly been there a hell of a lot longer than the dam has.

No idea about how big the dam is but if it is destroyed than both sides lose (assuming it will flood the region) but this may only be a temporary solution.

It did happen during the first world war. OK, it didn't go brilliantly, they had a civil war and then we had Lenin, Stalin, etc as you say, but that revolution did get them out of the war. At this stage I'm sure a lot of us would settle for that.

"People never forget or forgive when their country is forcibly partitioned"

Earlier I posted a video of the Kenyan envoy addressing the UN.

He pointed out that nearly every country in Africa had its borders drawn in the boardrooms London, Paris or Lisbon. Those borders showed no regard for the borders of previous nations, or tribal, religious or linguistic affiliation.

Like you, he recognised the desire for people to be with their own kind but he reminded us that were African nations to pursue those desires by means of aggression, then the whole continent would be at war for eternity.

You don't have to hold a grudge and pass it on through the generations, some people have managed to, if not forgive and forget, at least try and look towards building some kind of future that is not dominated by the past, or differences.

A bit like many Ukranians, who want to move on from a quite frankly awful past, rife with ethnic strife and forever being a pawn between competing superpowers.

Not being personal, but was it really worth posting that comment?

The whole thing is just horrendous - but I do have a question - maybe it's been covered already?

A huge Russian military convoy is rumbling down the main road from Russia towards Kyiv.

Am I missing something - but was this not completely predictable? As in: The Ukrainians have been expecting Russian troops/tanks etc to come down that road en-mass since 2014...... Surely there must be a plan (besides doris in her clio/beanie) to hamper their progress? As mentioned above, roadside bombs etc. What about artillery/mortars etc? I know it would be short lived due to Russian air superiority, but the convoy seems to have been relatively unimpeded so far?

Maybe it's a "wait until you see the whites of their eyes" thing...... but it just seems odd.

"Maybe it’s a “wait until you see the whites of their eyes” thing…… but it just seems odd"

Maybe you've just answered your own question. Given the overwhelming strength of the invader, engaging the column now would be foolhardy and at odds with the Ukranian strategy thus far. We have seen them engage when troops enter urban areas and they pick off supply columns when they've been isolated.

Surely attacking a column of that magnitude would involve a full scale military operation and the Ukranian forces would get wiped out. i can't see any military, strategic or political advantage in doing so.

(EDIT)

Not that similar thoughts haven't crossed my mind as well but I put it down to seeing so much drone footage overlaid with cross hairs that it makes it all look so easy. It becomes weird seeing overhead footage of a column of vehicles that doesn't end with a big bang. If only there was a launch button on the TV remote...

Given the overwhelming strength of the invader, engaging the column now would be foolhardy and at odds with the Ukranian strategy thus far.

Surely attacking a column of that magnitude would involve a full scale military operation and the Ukranian forces would get wiped out

I'm just a punter on the internet - but frequent harassment of the convoy by small guerilla units is a pretty tried and tested tactic, no? And exactly what a much smaller/more ill equipped force should be doing against a larger one?

Sorry, am not arguing, just confused about what the Ukrainian plan is here. Letting them get all the way to Kyiv and then engaging them in an urban environment seems like a strange decision

Not that similar thoughts haven’t crossed my mind as well but I put it down to seeing so much drone footage overlaid with cross hairs that it makes it all look so easy. It becomes weird seeing overhead footage of a column of vehicles that doesn’t end with a big bang. If only there was a launch button on the TV remote…

Same! To the point that I'm wondering that maybe this "slow moving, softly armored" convoy isn't too good to be true?

I’ve wondered the same myself. But maybe it is being hampered.
Also, earlier comments suggested bridges have been destroyed so maybe that’s enough for now…

That's fantastic, the Ukrainian people never cease to amaze me at how they're standing up to all of this.

Love the way he fires the gun in the air and it makes no difference whatsoever

Omg that is the singlemost amazing thing I've ever seen

Ben Wallace on the morning news just made the point - invasion is the 'easier' bit. Holding on as occupiers is way harder and more lethal for the occupying forces.

On a side note - Ben Wallace appears a knowledgeable, measured and clear minister. A step up from many of the rabble we can our ministers at the moment.

Just noticed that the Russian stock exchange isn't going to open today either. Also, traders have been told to reject sell orders from foreign investors.

I'm just wondering, what happens to an economy the longer its stock market stays closed?

At what point does it become less painful to just open it and take the hit compared to keeping it closed?

Grim news this morning with renewed fighting. Ben Wallace point is a good one - as the West found out in Iraq and Afghanistan. I think the economics of this are going to be the story in the longer term, but will do nothing to stop Putin in the short term.

Will be interesting to see how much of an insurgency/ guerilla war develops in the aftermath of a ‘successful’ invasion.

Ben Wallace is a retire Army Officer. He therefore has substantial experience and training in defence. Unlike some of the other ministers, he will have deployed on operations and understands how to conduct himself in such a serious situation.

We've only seen a few pictures of the huge Russian column - I imagine the front is well protected and there will be tanks/IFVs/AA dotted throughout it for protection. That said incendiary rounds etc. might be able to start a decent fire amongst the closely packed trucks. I'm sure the Ukrainian military have a better picture of it than we do and will attack it if they think it's the best option.

As for Putin - I wonder how invulnerable he really is, it only takes one person close to him to care more about the Russian people than their own life. Once the Russian people start suffering more as a result of Putin's actions hopefully someone will step-up...

As for Putin – I wonder how invulnerable he really is, it only takes one person close to him to care more about the Russian people than their own life. Once the Russian people start suffering more as a result of Putin’s actions hopefully someone will step-up…

The figures are terrifying. Latest polling (according to Newsnight last night) shows the approval rating for Mad Vlad is 70%, so any ideas of any civil unrest are simply not going to happen. I'm sure this will be at the forefront of anyones mind who's considering it

Thats what you get when you completely control the narrative in an entire country and Russia really is is truly Orwellian. Looks like the last tiny vestiges of independent news were quietly snubbed out last night

They were talking about this on Newsnight last night and saying that after 22 years of Putin, even if there is independent news, people don't seek it out as they are now just resigned to it being how it is and can no longer see any alternative

My photoshop skills are a bit analogue
Putin positive test

As for Putin – I wonder how invulnerable he really is

At the end, even as he was debilitated by addiction, madness and disease and when the Russian were literally banging on the door to the bunker, the people around Hitler were still obeying his orders - OK, some of the more madder ones were ignored, but still, no one took him to one side and suggested it might be time to stop it all.

I don't think after 6 days Putin is just going to throw in the towel. In fact I'd take anyone's money in a bet that he's still in place this time next year.

Indeed, PooTin will cling on personally and militarily for a lot longer than we may hope.

I would also say that the total dominance of his side of the 'story' has prevailed for 10 years. The majority of Russians still believe it, or are not prepared to challenge it as part of their daily life and survival. They are used to suffering, have generations who have been told that the west is the cause of this suffering, and hear very little outside of that.

The figures are terrifying. Latest polling (according to Newsnight last night) shows the approval rating for Mad Vlad is 70%

I think we can safely ignore those numbers given that the polling was carried out by a state-owned organization

I know it would be short lived due to Russian air superiority, but the convoy seems to have been relatively unimpeded so far

You don't have to destroy it in one go, you can hit it from 2km away with javelin and run, hit it with javelin from 2km away and run etc every attack causes delay, demoralises etc

We also don't know what is happening on the ground, (neither do the Russians) there are a lot of territorial defence units operating semi independently

Russian air superiority is transient, they don't command the skies, they can't fly without risk

Not seeing much about Ukranian air strikes, I guess they must be out of aircraft/drones if they're not attacking the big convoy? Or just too well defended To bother wasting their planes on?

The figures are terrifying. Latest polling (according to Newsnight last night) shows the approval rating for Mad Vlad is 70%,

I think the BBC said that was according to state media*.....state media also says that Kim Jong Un got 11 hole in one's on his first ever round of golf.

* May even be accurate if the wrong answer to the pollster might get you and your family a beating.

@wynne - good work!

Cheers. If anyone (everyone) knows how to put the image on the forum here i'd be grateful. Busy painting card to make poppies for some protest wreaths for war memorials. Starting with UKRAINE and **** PUTIN in foot tall letters.

I think we can safely ignore those numbers given that the polling was carried out by a state-owned organization

I don't doubt that they're complete bollocks. You're hardly going to say 'no, I think he's a ****, are you? Thats not going to be good for you in a dictatorship.

But on Newsnight last night you had two Russian analysts saying exactly the same thing... that after decades of nothing but Putin, no opposition , no independent media, no voices other than those approved by the regime, there is now just complete resignation by everyone that this is just how it is

So those hoping for the solution to the Putin problem to come from inside Russia are just delusional. Its just not going to happen

At the end, even as he was debilitated by addiction, madness and disease and when the Russian were literally banging on the door to the bunker, the people around Hitler were still obeying his orders

They were, but by that time the game was well and truely up for Germany and it made no difference

A year earlier, when the German generals thought there was still a way out the war on more positive terms, some of them attempted to blow him up!

So those hoping for the solution to the Putin problem to come from inside Russia are just delusional. Its just not going to happen

I wish I was as confident in anything as you are in all your opinions 🙂

I think if Putin's downfall is going to happen it's going to happen the way any situation that seems unchangeable happens. Slowly at first, and then very very fast.

A year earlier, when the German generals thought there was still a way out the war on more positive terms, some of them attempted to blow him up!

Only because they resented the idea of someone "like him" - a mere commoner ordering the aristos about, and they thought they could do a better job at winning the war, and that failed attempt cemented him in place, so if there's is a place coup at the Kremlin- and I really hope so, it better work first time!

Ben Wallace is a retire Army Officer. He therefore has substantial experience and training in defence. Unlike some of the other ministers, he will have deployed on operations and understands how to conduct himself in such a serious situation.

You mean the Ben Wallace who was banging on about Tsar Nicholas and the Crimean War? I don't doubt his experience but I would question if his words were what you would expect from a minister.

there is now just complete resignation by everyone that this is just how it is.

The Russian mentality seems to have been forever thus, for thousands of years.

Just accept that life is shit and grimly grind on, patting yourself on the back for displaying world-leading stoicism in the face of adversity.

It's a sort of Russian malaise. The energy and effort required to put up with the adversity is far more than would be required to end it, but somehow it's what seems to pervade, and with a huge sense of pride.

If the first American settlers had been Russian, they'd still be in Jamestown living on (boiled) sweet potatoes.

Cheers. If anyone (everyone) knows how to put the image on the forum here i’d be grateful. Busy painting card to make poppies for some protest wreaths for war memorials. Starting with UKRAINE and **** PUTIN in foot tall letters.

Please don't. Protest by all means but please don't involve the poppy, or war memorials.  Without wishing to reopen an STW can of worms, the poppy is supposed to be a sombre, apolitical symbol of remembrance.  There are enough nutters on the right and left trying to use it as political symbolism, please find another symbol for this. I am an ex serviceman who abhors what is happening in Ukraine and supports the Ukrainian resistance but don't deface war memorials or use the poppy in this.  I know most of my veteran friends would be equally horrified at this suggestion.

I don't think the younger generation think 'this is how it is' the ones protesting certainly don't, they get they're news from TicTok and the 'gram, yet again I'm hoping for the younger generation to put this right.

At the end, even as he was debilitated by addiction, madness and disease and when the Russian were literally banging on the door to the bunker, the people around Hitler were still obeying his orders – OK, some of the more madder ones were ignored, but still, no one took him to one side and suggested it might be time to stop it all.

But, prior to that there were at least 42 attempts (according to Wiki) to assassinate or overthrow him.  It's not like no one had the courage to at least attempt to bring him down.

I wish I was as confident in anything as you are in all your opinions 🙂

Not my opinions, but the weary, resigned opinion of two Russian commentators on Newsnight last night, both of whom were clearly appalled by Putin, but being realistic about the chances of getting rid of him. There isn't going to be a revolution. There isn't going to be a palace coup

Please don’t. Protest by all means but please don’t involve the poppy, or war memorials.

+1

If the first American settlers had been Russian, they’d still be in Jamestown living on (boiled) sweet potatoes.

And yet, The East was won. Almost to Vancouver.