Cluster Munitions only entered the treaty 15 years ago, so the UK usage was pre-ban and the UK committed to destroying their stockpile and cleaning areas where they were used, the use of them now in city environments is not a good thing, as they can leave a lot of unexploded ordnance in residential areas.
Again, China and Taiwan is a completely different thing, history alone can tell you the atrocities that have occurred in the last century due to that, so again, nothing to do with this current conflict.
The next day or two is going to be so critical for Ukraine, and the people of Russia, i really hope that sense prevails at some point, honestly, in this day and age we laugh at the thought of repeating horrific history, like Nazi Germany, but this conflict has really made me understand we're not really any better 80 years on :o(
I was in sofia in 1990, it was dire.
Empty shops with nothing on the shelves but boxes thst used to contain say cornflakes, but were empty.
Beggars everywhere, kids high as kites with glue bags and no shoes constantly pestering you.
At one point a lorry pulled up and had a load of fruit in it. I hadnt seen any for a week so bought a dozen oranges.
In our hotel the cleaners took all The caps off our toothpaste and shower gel so we couldn't take it home.
It was mega. It wasn't really, but the coke and hookers were really Cheap
Seems like it really is kicking off tonight 😕
https://twitter.com/WW3updated/status/1498715218175832065
Same area different (much bloody closer!) view:
The manpower involved on both sides in Leningrad doesn’t make it a particularly useful comparison. The Germans started that siege with 750,000 men. The Russians have just invaded Ukraine as a whole with a total of around 200,000 available.
Further peace talks tomorrow.
I wonder what Angela Merkel would have made of the current situation. I know she and putin had a tense relationship, but she was one leader (along with macron) who tried to maintain a direct, albeit very strained, relationship with Moscow. I think putin had a great deal of respect for her, I reckon she may just have been able to reign him in. Maybe!
@agree, not sure if you meant this, but do you think the British government were not aware of the destruction and the lack of accuracy of those cluster bombs that we dropped?
Pretty sure neither the US or Russia have signed up to the treaty.
I agree with the rest of your post though.
I personally wouldn’t hold out hope of the actual Russian infantry surrendering. Maybe some of the less trained conscripts, but I don’t see it with the professional soldiers. Being in a war zone 100% focuses your thoughts on the job at hand, this includes thinking about your own safety and that of your colleagues. The officers and Senior NCO’s will be keeping a very close eye on the moral of the troops and ensuring they are completely focused.
The make up of the Russian army is complex because it has conscripts, contracted soldiers and a lot of corruption
Their capabilities are constrained by the corruption, radios seem to be an issue as do maps, the airforce doesn't have many precision guided munitions and the pilots are under trained (looks like they are pulling them back from their Syrian operations to support). The conscripts weren't told why they were there nor were the contracted soldiers, so they didn't expect resistance on the ground. The artillery was constrained because of the cameras and this hollows out the heart of their doctrine. The radio situation means the command structure isn't talking to the units and unit radio nets are open to intercept with a large effort going into that
Morale is everything, if the Ukrainians can keep the pressure on the Russian units will start to contract back in their efforts as they will feel the game is up. Some units will fight regardless such as the Chechen units but they are fighting the Azov Regiment units so it's matching the less politically desirable units off against each other. I wouldn't want to be a civilian in that area though as it will be horrific
I think there will be a tipping point when one side or the other collapses in terms of morale and will to fight, Putin will need to either "fall ill" or be removed by other means for it to be a "clean" end though.
Final thought, I don't think a professional politician would have made some of the decisions the Ukrainian President has, the mass mobilization and arming of the population, staying in Kyiv and the mobile phone walkabouts, and stopping fighting age men from leaving the country are all decisions I can't see a professional politician ever doing in a western European context other than probably Switzerland
Wow sounds different to how I remember it. Saying that I remember not being able to find a football for sale but the shops were full of everything else (or so I remember). I took home some Italia 90 glasses and some other football memorabilia.
I also stayed in Plovdiv and Golden Sands. What I remember that I thought was cool was loads of bonfires in the parks and cool looking teens everywhere.
not sure if you meant this, but do you think the British government were not aware of the destruction and the lack of accuracy of those cluster bombs that we dropped?
Everyone knew they weren't precision, they were called "the grid square removal system", they would land where you wanted (accurate) but the area they covered was huge so there would be the risk to things close by, the secondary risk was that the munitions themselves weren't that reliable and would pose a lasting danger to all
In context no unguided indirect fire is accurate all the time, that's why they spend a lot of time training observers. It's also why we tend to use aircraft or drones these days
w00dster
Full Member
@agree, not sure if you meant this, but do you think the British government were not aware of the destruction and the lack of accuracy of those cluster bombs that we dropped?
Pretty sure neither the US or Russia have signed up to the treaty.
I agree with the rest of your post though.
No, i meant that Cluster Munitions were only banned in 2010, your article from 2003 is before that, the issue with cluster munitions wasn't a lack of accuracy, they were an area weapon, so meant to disperse over an area, it was the performance might not be good, so several blinds would be left in an area, which is an issue with remnants of war.
Neither the US or Russia have signed up for it, but the use of cluster munitions in urban environments is seen as contravening the convention.
That Pentagon report has just popped up on BBC. Praying that the disorganisation and low morale they talk about is widespread enough to slow things down even more.
https://twitter.com/grandpajem/status/1498394873707257860?s=21
“Bollock faced foghorn of ignorance” is suddenly my favourite phrase
That is fantastic.
@agree, the point I’m making is that we invaded another country illegally and used cluster bombs. Only 20 years ago. Completely accept that we have signed a treaty since….but we still did it in our lifetime and we still voted Blair back in.
In 2022 we are horrified at the invasion of another country and the use of cluster bombs.
We are more than happy to make and sell Cluster Bombs to the Saudi’s for use in Yemen. The Saudi Government saying not used in urban areas….not sure I believe a word of it.
According to our Government we stopped supplying Cluster munitions in the late 1980’s. This was another lie. The British made and supplied bombs were dropped on Yemen in 2016.
But all war and bombing of Civilians is atrocious. We shouldn’t have been in Syria, while the bombing was indeed more accurate, there is always going to be civilian casualties. Again our government will lie to the people.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51900898
Signed. Two reasons, it's the right and proper thing and I also hope it makes the Home Secretary cranky.
According to our Government we stopped supplying Cluster munitions in the late 1980’s. This was another lie. The British made and supplied bombs were dropped on Yemen in 2016.
Considering these kind of munitions have a shelf life in excess of 20yrs it’s not inconceivable that these were weapons purchased before the shipping was stopped.
Whilst looking for alternative news sources right now, I have just happened across RT World News (which I had assumed would have been shut down internationally by now!) but clearly isn't... I have no words!
An American host, an American guest who happens to be a professor at New York University right now... This is pure diversion tactics, Putin apologist rhetoric, and blaming the EU/UN/US for being racist, whilst constant minor updates of lots of small military gains are going in Ukraine right now and how Putin is combatting all of the sanctions being put on Russia right now so effectively.
Mind blown! 🤯
This is, as far as I can tell, being filmed in the US... These people make Tucker Carlson look moderate! I was aware that there was an element of the US far right that admired Putin and his disdain for the establishment, I didn't realise this was such a big movement in the US so much so that Russian state owned media had been allowed to fully infiltrate its citizens to provide such propaganda...
Staggering!
Andrew Neil on Twitter suggesting that the big convoy is starting to surrender, deliberately sabotaging thier own vehicles.
This would be the most incredible way for it to end.
I was talking to my daughter about it and she said something along the lines of 'I hate people'. I pointed out that it only takes few Putins, Hitlers or Stalins to do enormous amounts of bad. Which is an interesting question - are these people uniquely bad, or are there loads of potential super-baddies from which the eventual leaders emerge?
I thought they have been told they are there as a peacekeeping force to because Ukraine is being run by a Nazi government.
Yeah, of course, a Nazi government run by a Jew...
Petition signed; emailed some people asking them to sign and share with others.
As for the farage insult description ^^^ it's brilliant!
Let's hope that the Pentagon report which Andrew Neil referenced is somewhere near accurate.
New sport invented in Ukraine - throwing petrol bombs out of moving cars!
New sport invented in Ukraine – throwing petrol bombs out of moving cars!
I almost wish they'd thrown it at the truck, probably more chance of it catching fire.
Signed here too. Helps relieve the feeling of impotency for a few seconds.
Signed, although the POS fat old truck driver we had in at work today got both barrels when he came out with the "but we're only a small island and we're full"
He's might have a point*. I vote we start slinging out the oligarchs to make some space.
*not really, but still up for sending the oligarchs on their way.
Yeah, of course, a Nazi government run by a Jew…
We all know it’s ridiculous statement of course, but we are bought up being taught balanced views ( in the whole) and have access to all manner of information, but how educated are these young conscripts ?
I know nothing of living in Russia. What do they teach them in school for example ?
Signed. China has described it as a war, and indicated it may play a role in a ceasefire.
I suspect this is pretty much correct - it won't end until Putin's people turn on him.
https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1498772954938757121
https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1498773142092853250
https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1498773145070755840
Pretty sure neither the US or Russia have signed up to the treaty.
A total of 123 states have joined the Convention, as 110 states parties and 13 signatories. including the UK.
Russia, India,****stan and the US amongst others are not signed up so will continue their use.
As far as im aware we still manufacture them thought. The UK has two types, Russia has 4, 3 in use, and other countries like Germany 4, France 2, one no longer produced, and most of the others have between 2 -4 in their stocks.
US has 47. 15 of which are in current use.
Revs, Putin Isn’t referring to the current PM of Ukraine, he is referring to their history.
He’s completely using it as an excuse, one of many. But if the below hasn’t been posted it here, it’s worth a read. We have a messed up history. Atrocious have been caused by all nations. Human nature at times makes me sick to my stomach.
https://historynewsnetwork.org/article/122778
I hope this ends soon. I don’t know any answer. Even removing Putin won’t stop this happening again.
Now Syrians are looking for ways to get to Ukraine in order to hit back at Russia, for it’s support of Assad.
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/russia-ukraine-war-syria-rebels-revenge-seek-passage
Signed. I see the Ukraine government are offering war bonds to raise funds - is it too capitalist to invest? Anyone found a way to do it? We do the charity stuff too, for our consciences.
Signed.
Any veterans that might have some kit in their garages/lofts there's a few collections going around to get equipment out to volunteers.
This is one: Kit Request
As well as the humanitarian aid requests.
"Putin's minimum bar for a negotiated solution now would likely be Ukraine conceding Crimea to Russia, agreement to never join NATO and EU and some form of demilitarization (eg. no NATO infrastructure in Ukraine)"
"His problem is that it's highly unlikely that Zelensky and the rest of the Ukrainian leadership would accept these conditions"
Doesn't there come a point where a population will just accept whatever they must, to stop the bombs/rockets/shells flying into their neighborhood? I don't think many of us would stick with our "principles and values" very long, certainly not all the way until the place ends up like Grozny.
Again been looking at the history. Grozny is a much smaller city, not clear how well defended, but seemed to be a much higher ratio of attackers to defenders. Aleppo was smaller but more comparable, took best part of 4 years. I’m not doubting the Russians can do it if they really want to, but I just don’t see how it can be over in a timescale that is sustainable. The longer it goes on, and the more deaths there are the more support Putin loses.
I really think their only chance for ‘victory’ in any meaningful sense was to finish it in a week. I mean their much vaunted 40 mile convoy hasn’t moved anywhere for over 24 hours. Feels like they’ve lost momentum.
Could be wishful thinking of course, hope I’m not eating my words over next 3 days.
bikesand - no.
Doesn’t there come a point where a population will just accept whatever they must, to stop the bombs/rockets/shells flying into their neighborhood?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Stalingrad
Now Syrians are looking for ways to get to Ukraine in order to hit back at Russia, for it’s support of Assad.
That will complicate matters further. If the Syrians are there in force then the Chechen "hunters"
might simply stop their involvement on religious ground (even if their leader wants to the followers will not). Chechen has long history with links to middle east. It is best they don't get involve or they will drag fighters from all over the world prolonging the conflict.
“Putin’s minimum bar for a negotiated solution now would likely be Ukraine conceding Crimea to Russia, agreement to never join NATO and EU and some form of demilitarization (eg. no NATO infrastructure in Ukraine)”
“His problem is that it’s highly unlikely that Zelensky and the rest of the Ukrainian leadership would accept these conditions”
If that is true then Russia wants "half" of Ukraine after the river Kyiv (East Ukraine) together with the non-NATO buffer zone, which I think that might be the "best" outcome to stop the war for now. Then pray that we don't have to see WW3 at all.
Unfortunately for Ukraine that might be the best outcome for now but they have to negotiate hard to maintain their own military infrastructure.
If the negotiation fails then I am afraid the seed for WW3 is sowed. All it needs is a single spark from that area in future and this time the demand will be entire former Soviet Union.
People never forget or forgive when their country is forcibly partitioned.
I wonder how good the CIA/MI6/etc intelligence is about the very top of Russia?
IMO the best outcome is for a coup in Russia and the new leader to get everyone out.
If the West have intelligence that nothing is going to happen in that regard then Ukraine might have to conceed some ground and unfortunately we let Putin take that win and maybe emboldened him for future adventures.
If they have intelligence that his position is becoming less and less tenable then unfortunately more ukrainian lives might have to be sacrificed to drag it out long enough for that to happen. Very unpleasant but worth it (he says as not one of the ones actually being sacrificed)
.
How secure are the US/UK/EU communications with Zalensky? How much could he be involved in this decision? Being in Kiev is fantastic for morale but hopeless for talking about big stuff like that with his allies without his communications being intercepted. How good are the Russian spies? How secure are the Ukrainians communications? It doesn't matter if the Russains listen in to his video call to the EU, that's on the telly. It does matter if they listen to his private phone call to Biden or Guterez. Could ambassadors abroad make that kind of decision for him for example?
People never forget or forgive when their country is forcibly partitioned.
That's true for both the conqueror and the conquered as history has taught us. There is always a price to pay for this sort of things in the end.
I wouldn't say never. The people where I'm from have pretty much forgiven Wessex for taking over, and the Vikings too. The Normans on the other hand, that's a bit fresh in our collective memory!
I wonder how good the CIA/MI6/etc intelligence is about the very top of Russia?
I am sure both sides have intel on each other coz that's their job (intelligence workers).
IMO the best outcome is for a coup in Russia and the new leader to get everyone out.
That will not happen. Their system/culture etc is not build that way. Tsar was overthrown by the Bolsheviks revolution but was replaced by another form of "Tsar" and all the subsequent leaders were in various forms of "Tsar" in disguise and the latest incarnation is in Putin. Therefore, the system never changed at all. All of them have one thing in common "We are glorious powerful conquerors and we want more".