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There are oligarchs in/from other countries. We rarely use that term in terms of the UK because of the divergence of ownership and control of large companies, especially those that also have political and/or social influences. The USA (arguably worldwide) tech industry is often said to have oligarchs though, is is not a term reserved only for Russian oligarchs at all. Our newspapers have been described as owned by oligarchs in the past… and I for one would like that description to become common again, ‘till we sort out media ownership/control in the UK. Pretty obvious what the barrier to describing the media owners in those terms might be…


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 2:41 pm
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an oligarch is a businessman (term used loosely) who uses close political ties to further line their pockets

The thing with the Russian oligarchs is they don't really own their companies. They're just a front for Putin who can throw them in jail and seize all their assets if they displease him. They're really just managers, not true owners.


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 2:45 pm
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Air Marshall Philip Osbourn talking here about no fly zones (which he’s been involved with before) and the general strategic/military/political situation.


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 2:47 pm
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International help, from the ground up not just the top down, comes in all kinds of forms. This one is simple to understand, and pretty uncontroversial to applaud…

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1500108250276057090?s=21


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 3:02 pm
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The russian billionaires being sanctioned are both kleptocrats and oligarchs; they have become oligarchs through kleptocracy.


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 3:03 pm
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"No, there’s no treaty and Taiwan isn’t officially recognized as a country. The US position is to be ambiguous about it."

Yes, I read here that there was;
https://www.rferl.org/a/china-russia-ukraine-crisis-standish/31678140.html
but looking further into it I can see it's not the case. However Trump, then Biden have both ramped up rhetoric over Taiwan. Scary times.


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 3:32 pm
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'it is all the people of Ukraine. Stop the war', you make my point very well.


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 4:02 pm
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Hopefully the next Russian Revolution gets going


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 4:45 pm
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Air Marshall Philip Osbourn talking here about no fly zones (which he’s been involved with before) and the general strategic/military/political situation.

That was really interesting! And very well put


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 4:51 pm
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Hopefully the next Russian Revolution gets going

That would be nice. Although the next guy might be even worse!


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 4:52 pm
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Report on R4 this morning that putin may have terminal bowel cancer.
I certainly wish he was dead.
Let's assume he's terminally ill - how will that influence his decision making on the basis that...if I'm not around, why should I care?
His death will leave a power void in the kremlin; no obvious successor so further upheaval likely.
Older generations in Russia are more likely to believe state propaganda; younger generations aren't as they are avid users of social media and have connections outside of the country - they are also feeling the impact of sanctions more directly through withdrawal of western products and services to which they've become accustomed/addicted.
Evidenced by interviews with Russians of different ages.
Demographics are against putin.


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 5:03 pm
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Twitter is awash today with Russians posting video of demonstrations, people confronting officials, getting arrested  and even brawling with riot police.  Another couple of thousand demonstrators arrested today.  Brave people.  I know there is an argument that Putin is unmoved by home grown public opinion but this seems to be gaining momentum.  Interesting to see the demographic of the protesters too.  Plenty of young people as you would expect, but no shortage of middle aged and older too.  Also, it seems Putin's attempt to shut down social media and control the narrative isn't working out too well for him.  This Twitter feed is just one example, scroll down for the videos.

https://twitter.com/brewerov?s=20&t=S3DnE6-Z35pvjhhLM2FbMg


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 5:07 pm
 PJay
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It's probably total fantasy, but I'm hoping for internal rebellion in Russia prompted by the war and sanctions.

Alexi Navalny is someone I have huge respect for (especially returning to Russia and certain imprisoning after the poisoning episode); he's trying to organise anti-war protests from within prison.

In my fantasy outcome he gets sprung from jail by the rebellion but I suspect that in reality he's in line for an unfortunate accident in prison if things start looking bad for Putin.


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 5:09 pm
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I would love to believe I would have the guts to protest like this, under that kind of regime, but I really don’t think I would…

https://twitter.com/sarahrainsford/status/1500468214312148996?s=21


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 5:10 pm
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That is ballsy!!


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 5:22 pm
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Report on R4 this morning that putin may have terminal bowel cancer.

Based on what information?


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 5:28 pm
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Based on what information?

I wasn't the reporter.


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 5:30 pm
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I wasn’t the reporter.

That wasn't a challenge, just wondering why they thought that. I wondered if the reporter had offered more information.


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 5:35 pm
 PJay
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If you Google it there are a few reports apparently based on the musings of an unidentified intelligence analyst now working at the Pentagon, but it's pretty tenuous.


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 5:37 pm
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It’s probably total fantasy, but I’m hoping for internal rebellion in Russia prompted by the war and sanctions.

It's only a matter of time surely.
Ruble crashing through the floor.
Interest rates going through the ceiling.
Visa and mastercard have stopped doing business with Russia.


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 5:44 pm
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mols - there are a few kremlinologists and putin-watchers commenting about his health; I posted a link to an interview with Fiona Hill a few days ago which I think is on pg59.
IF his health is declining I fear for him looking at an end of days attitude.


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 6:04 pm
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That is ballsy!!

Really.  That stuff gives even more hope than the Ukrainian resistance


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 6:04 pm
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It’s only a matter of time surely.
Ruble crashing through the floor.
Interest rates going through the ceiling.
Visa and mastercard have stopped doing business with Russia.

Near complete control of the media means that opinion polls in Russia show huge support for his actions.
Just introduced a mandatory 15 year sentence for people broadcasting 'fake' news about the non war in Ukraine
Sanctions are something he can spin as justifying what he's doing and use to galvanise his support


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 6:10 pm
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His latest line through state media seems to be that Ukraine have succeeded in building a Nuclear Bomb, and have moved it to Lviv for safety. That seems to be creating a reason for some kind of nasty attack on Lviv, but I hope I’m wrong……


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 6:14 pm
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IF his health is declining I fear for him looking at an end of days attitude.

Hopefully that is the case, and also hopefully those around him don't have terminal illnesses and if he wanted a slash and burn finale, they might be tempted to 'dissuade' him, having more to stick around for.


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 6:20 pm
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Near complete control of the media means that opinion polls in Russia show huge support for his actions.

It won't matter when thier cards are canceled and they can't pay thier rent's or buy a pint of milk for less than a tenner.


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 6:26 pm
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Last I heard, cards originating from Russian banks will not be affected, unless they leave the country. Card-holders from other countries won't be able to use their cards in Russia. Presumably more about online merchant services from abroad rather than trying to stop the population being able to buy stuff.


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 6:28 pm
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Sensible I guess, don't alienate the common Russian who works for a living.

In the long game Russia is seriously screwed for this.
I just hope our fellow Europeans can winter the storm, as they'd be fools to think a country of racists like the UK will give a flying elephant, at least that is, until thier utility bills go up 200%.


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 6:32 pm
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Alexi Navalny is someone I have huge respect for

Hmmm...you might want to do a bit of reading...he's possibly not the nicest person in the world....Amnesty aren't impressed


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 6:49 pm
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The way we celebrate and glorify that conflict over here can only be seen as obscene by any of our European neighbours.

I don't think you could be more wrong about how many Europeans (including Russians and for that matter Ukrainians) see the efforts of the Allied forces to liberate them from Hitler's Nazis TBH. If it wasn't for The US, for instance supplying the Russians with over 4000 Sherman tanks, or the 18,000 aircraft that they rec'd from allied factories the war on the Eastern front may have been completely different.

50 Sovietss died for every Briton for example

You do know why some of the reasons their deaths were so much higher than the UK's though, right? nearly a million soldiers were executed as "convicts " or "deserters" by the soviets themselves, Over two hundred thousand were shot after being court marshalled. While seven million Soviet civilians were killed,  in both the sieges of Leningrad and Stalingrad, Stalin refused to let civilians leave, and those that tried and were caught by Russian soldiers were summarily shot as traitors, and children who were found exchanging collecting water for bread with Germans soldiers were shot...


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 7:12 pm
 PJay
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Alexi Navalny is someone I have huge respect for

Hmmm…you might want to do a bit of reading…he’s possibly not the nicest person in the world….Amnesty aren’t impressed

Oh dear, that is a shame, perhaps he's not the ideal replacement for Putin then, but he does seem to be about the only person who's galvanised any meaningful resistance to him.

I'm fairly clueless about Russian (or indeed, world) politics beyond the news headlines. Assuming revolution in Russia is possible, is there anyone who could spearhead it and hopefully head up a new, democratic Russia without turning into Putin MkII?


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 7:22 pm
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Assuming revolution in Russia is possible, is there anyone who could spearhead it and hopefully head up a new, democratic Russia without turning into Putin MkII?

Where's Pussy Riot when you need 'em?


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 7:36 pm
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There doesn't seem to be anyone obvious...Putin has effectively (or literally) killed off any meaningful opposition. It may be my bias but in these authoritarian countries, the people we think are going to be liberal saviours often turn out to be at least as bad as the authoritarian they replace...look at that woman in Myanmar for example.


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 7:40 pm
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Twodogs
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Alexi Navalny is someone I have huge respect for

Hmmm…you might want to do a bit of reading…he’s possibly not the nicest person in the world….Amnesty aren’t impressed

yeah he's seems more than a bit iffy.


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 7:44 pm
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When he was growing up do you think it was in putin’s game plan that one day pretty much the entire world hoped he would have cancer?

That must be a life fail by any measure..


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 7:48 pm
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Where’s Pussy Riot when you need ’em?

Still in prison I think...?


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 7:58 pm
 PJay
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Where’s Pussy Riot when you need ’em?

Funnily enough I was just thinking about them. At least some of them are still active - https://variety.com/2022/digital/news/pussy-riot-nadya-tolokonnikova-ukraine-nft-1235195900/

There is a lot of resistance in Russia (some of the bravery involved in the ongoing anti-war protests is huge) but it's so ruthlessly put down.

Meanwhile in London - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-60638289


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 8:02 pm
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50

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60640460

Fifty Ukrainians have been granted visas under a scheme for refugees with family links to the UK, the Home Office has announced.
It is about 1% of the 5,535 people who have applied since the programme launched 48 hours earlier.


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 8:07 pm
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Sir Keir Starmer has called for a senior parliamentary committee to investigate claims Boris Johnson pushed for a Russian-born businessman to get a peerage, despite security concerns.

Thanks Pjay.


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 8:08 pm
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All the sanctions I hear about are from Europe and the US, are the rest of the world doing similar? If not I'd assume Russia will just increase trading elsewhere and this will carry on for a very Long time.
Probably mssively over simplified everything.


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 8:11 pm
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Stop ascribing western values to Navalny. We may look at these things as negatives but Russia is a completely different culture. Just because he's white doesn't make him one of "us".

Sometimes the "good guy" just has to be the "better guy". You can't change attitudes overnight.


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 8:12 pm
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What's the fuss about Lebedev BTW? I thought he was fairly liberal.

@kelvin that's shameful. Between aid being turned back at one side and refugees on the other this country is a ****ing disgrace.


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 8:17 pm
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Lebedev's father is billionaire and ex-kgb.
Concern is that johnson allegedly pushed to over-ride concerns raised about the proposed peerage.
When it comes to lebedev, Private Eye is your essential guide.


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 8:31 pm
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Stop ascribing western values to Navalny. We may look at these things as negatives but Russia is a completely different culture. Just because he’s white doesn’t make him one of “us”.

What?


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 8:34 pm
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so, it seems Putin’s attempt to shut down social media and control the narrative isn’t working out too well for him.

Social nyet-work


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 8:35 pm
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Right now I’d settle for ANYBODY other than Putin in charge.


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 8:36 pm
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50

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60640460

Fifty Ukrainians have been granted visas under a scheme for refugees with family links to the UK, the Home Office has announced.
It is about 1% of the 5,535 people who have applied since the programme launched 48 hours earlier.

I’ll bet if you add in family members more conservative donors have left the country than that.


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 8:42 pm
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50

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60640460

Fifty Ukrainians have been granted visas under a scheme for refugees with family links to the UK, the Home Office has announced.
It is about 1% of the 5,535 people who have applied since the programme launched 48 hours earlier.

This is an absolute disgrace


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 9:00 pm
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This is an absolute disgrace

Indeed. It’s absolutely disgusting. But then again did you expect much more when he have such a despicable individual in charge of immigration?


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 9:13 pm
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Priti Patel? She comes across like a really nasty piece of work


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 9:31 pm
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If they are only processing 25 a day, that's a worry.

Not as worrying as the fact that it's taken so long to get any sort of scheme up and running, which is a national disgrace.


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 9:35 pm
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Posted : 06/03/2022 9:38 pm
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Image

Interesting photo.

For those of you who aren't plane nerds, this is an Su34. It's US equivalent is perhaps an F15E. It's a really sophisticated airplane filled to brim with equipment to drop very complex smart weapons that are pin-point accurate. The bombs hanging under the wings of this airplane aren't smart weapons though, they're just regular "dumb" bombs - the sorts of things they dropped in say; Korea or WW2. The interesting things are (in no particular order) why are the RF-AF not using smart weapons? It may be that they don't have any, they used a shit metric tonne of them in Syria, they may have thought it wouldn't be a problem that they didn't have them ready for Ukraine. Dumb bombs are really really inaccurate - even when you use an airplane as good as the Su34. It makes the airplanes using them really vulnerable to ground fire - there are reports that this very airplane has already been shot down.


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 9:47 pm
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Inaccurate means bad news for anyone in the vicinity of a target. But slightly better news in that they might need more
bombs and perhaps more sorties to achieve the same aims.


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 9:53 pm
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@twodogs

My point is that whilst we may look the same, culturally we are worlds apart so trying to judge him against our values is not a productive use of our time. Problematic attitudes exist everywhere and whilst we in western societies are doing our best to be more liberal the same cannot be said throughout the world where many attitudes are culturally more conservative. The previously linked article from the Washington Post was actually quite good and explains it better than I can.

TL:DR whilst his opinions on certain matters are disgusting he should be viewed against his contemporaries rather than our own standards.


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 10:08 pm
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Some very crazy talk in this thread.
The UK is on its own in terms of European support, and our government are a bunch of chancers.. No one gives a Ross what boris says. The most important news is not for us any more, it's the EU response that carries weight.

Stop thinking you are so important.


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 10:09 pm
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To use ‘smart’ bombs you also need a target pod - noticeably absent on that photo. They’re having to resort to low-level runs which takes them into range of shoulder-mounted weapons. Expect a lot of those weapons will be heading to the Polish Ukraine border.
I was reading somewhere that Ukrainians are deliberately targeting fuel bowsers as well as flooding low-level areas close to the convoy to make it more muddy.
Looks like the Americans are going to be swapping some F-16s for Migs and Sukhoi with the Polish Air Force and supplying the old jets to Ukraine.


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 10:13 pm
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I said very early on this thread that I think Putin is ill, maybe terminally, so doesn't care. Hopefully those around him will come to their senses.
It seems the deal with the US regarding planes is a replacement of the current Polish stock with the new US models and the older ones ginen to Ukraine.
I'm frequently wrong.


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 10:14 pm
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Stop thinking you are so important

Tbf London is a prime destination for kleptocrat money laundering, we are incredibly influential, just not necessarily for the good


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 10:15 pm
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Somewhat true, but the UK is just a tool in the Russian war chest, a pawn in a bigger game, if you will.


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 10:26 pm
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perhaps more sorties to achieve the same aims

All that will happen is more will get shot down for no real gain. The Su34 is really expensive and hard to replace, using them for this this sort of shitty nonsense is desperate stuff. This soon into a proper war, and the Russian Air Force is reduced to this? Already?


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 10:31 pm
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@squirrelking

TL:DR whilst his opinions on certain matters are disgusting he should be viewed against his contemporaries rather than our own standards.

Yeah I get that...I was just making the point that we should be careful what we wish for...the next guy may end up as bad, or worse, then the current incumbent


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 10:34 pm
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next guy may end up as bad

Almost certainly will be. There's been no opposition parties and no real democracy at all in Russia since...well, forever really. Where exactly is any form of representative democracy going to come from?


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 10:36 pm
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Some very crazy talk in this thread.

Stop thinking you are so important.

You're going to have to put this into context because I have no idea who you are addressing.


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 10:36 pm
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The reason for the two way jet swap is that the Ukrainians already know how to fly & maintain MiG 29s, and don’t need the conversion training they’d need for e.g. F-16s.

Wikipedia reckons the Bulgarians and Slovaks might have some too.


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 10:41 pm
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You’re going to have to put this into context because I have no idea who you are addressing.

The UK government thinking anyone gives a shit about what the UK government has to offer. It's nothing.

We made ourselves a very small fish in a big pond with brexit.


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 10:54 pm
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All the sanctions I hear about are from Europe and the US, are the rest of the world doing similar? If not I’d assume Russia will just increase trading elsewhere and this will carry on for a very Long time.
Probably mssively over simplified everything.

US and EU (especially EU to Russia) are massive, rich markets (I think the EU is the richest market in the owrld IIRC). Someone calculated that for Brexit, all the trade deals we'll get with other counties won't even add up to what we've lost with the EU. Russia won't even get a sniff of half of those. Basically they're going to have to do trade with China and maybe India etc. and would likely get completely screwed over in terms of a deal.

So TL;DR - if they can find new markets, will still be a huge hit to their economy for many many years.


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 10:55 pm
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All that will happen is more will get shot down for no real gain. The Su34 is really expensive and hard to replace, using them for this this sort of shitty nonsense is desperate stuff. This soon into a proper war, and the Russian Air Force is reduced to this? Already?

I can't decide is Russia are just really inept at logistics and just can't get the smart bombs to the aircraft or whether the reality is they are skint and there's actually only half a dozen advanced munitions in Russia and they don't want to use them. I can understand the ground forces being limited if they can't get stuff to the frontline, but obviously the aircraft are flying out of Russia airstrips. The other worrying possibility is they just don't GAF and why waste the fancy stuff when they can just chuck the old unaccurate stuff on buildings/civilians etc. but you're right on that one - doesn't take too may downed Sukois to make that look like a bad decision.


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 11:01 pm
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Biden has laid the groundwork well convincing Germany to sanction Nordstream 2 and helping the Ukrainian military with Intel, Putin must realise this, but what can he do to counter it?

https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1499716981242617859?t=_a9DmQ0-woPAqWBrOzOKSQ&s=19


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 11:02 pm
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Not saying this means Ukrainins will win, their effectiveness will be wearing too, but still

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1500489642638024709?t=rTuVA-77qJQlWUpNUEt6CQ&s=19


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 11:04 pm
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UK gov is a ****ing joke.

When's the revolution?


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 11:10 pm
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... including a portal Ukranians can access in near real time..

Is it TikTok?


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 11:18 pm
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May 2024. Our chance of a revolution comes around every 4 years. Unlike some poor people.


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 11:19 pm
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Not saying this means Ukrainins will win, their effectiveness will be wearing too, but still

Oh god more of that please. Especially if it's those little shits shelling the Ukrainian families trying to escape


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 11:21 pm
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UK gov is a **** joke.

When’s the revolution?

NATO will end up going in.. Its not a matter of if.. Its a matter of when..

The fact that civilians are now targets in this war means that it amounts to nothing more than ethnic cleansing. Europe will end up being the driving force behind some sort of response. Meanwhile the UK and USA will drag their heels and maybe apply some more sanctions.


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 11:22 pm
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Is it TikTok?

Snapchat. Shhh..the Russians still think it's been discontinued


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 11:23 pm
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Is it just me that looks at that video of the artillery destruction and thinks that is really good agricultural soil and some poor bugger will struggle to plough that ground for years to come. One thing is for sure, they won't be planting it this season!


 
Posted : 06/03/2022 11:24 pm
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