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Seems a second cable has been cut in the Baltic, and *rumor* that a Chinese flagged civilian ship stopped and drifted over the cut cable spot for a couple of hours....
Considering everyone blatantly knows what that russian ship is designed for I can’t understand why it doesn’t have a permanent escort shadowing
My BIL captains a T45 destroyer, before his last deployment (shooting down Houthi drones) he spent his time shadowing Russian spy ships as they mapped out our undersea cables, he had pictures of their silhouettes on his cabin wall as they modify them slightly to make them harder to ID, they are usually registered as fishing or science vessles.
We only have 6 T45s and at least 1 is undergoing refit atm and they dont have the best reliability record, at least 1 is in the gulf and we only have 2 or 3 others operational.
Ive no idea what the subs are up to!
matt_outandabout
Full Member
Seems a second cable has been cut in the Baltic, and *rumor* that a Chinese flagged civilian ship
I believe an event like that happened in '23. Could it be sometime online has their wires crossed?
Or it has happened again of course!
I wonder what the response from N Korea will be if a lot of their troops start dying from ATACMs or Storm Shadow strikes, I imagine they are disposable to Kim but they surely wouldnt be happy with it.
So far it seems ATACMs have been used on ammunition dumps in Russia
I imagine they will be looking airfields next, but often the glide bombs are launched from airfields outside their range.
This feels like too little too late
kimbers
Full Member
Considering everyone blatantly knows what that russian ship is designed for I can’t understand why it doesn’t have a permanent escort shadowing
My BIL captains a T45 destroyer
I should imagine a lot of the Nordic/Baltic states are also paying very close attention too, so hopefully there is fairly constant monitoring. That said, as these cut cables show, it's probably impossible to keep an eye on them 24/7.
As someone said though, this is a sign of weakness from Russia as well as a bit of intel gathering for a scenario where there was direct conflict with NATO in the future.
A nuclear power going around cutting cables as it dare not actually get into direct conflict with NATO. Doesn't say much about past world power.
Amusing to see Putin changing the constitution to lower the bar for when Russia can use nukes. Why amusing? Does anybody really think that Putin wouldn't launch a nuke if he wanted to because it's not in the constitution?! Lol
It's all cosplay for the likes of the MAGA crowd that loves Putin but also believes he wants to kill them.
Pretty odd, eh.
kimbers - I can't imagine Kim gives a damn about the troops. They were just a transaction of meat, sadly and grimly.
Ive no idea what the subs are up to!
I'm sure the right people know. As should be the way, obviously my input was merely conjecture. But it wouldn't suprise me if it's more of a converted effort in terms of resources; sub-surface, surface and aviation fleets.
Did anyone see the BBC program on the highly trained beluga whale that turned up in Norway a few years ago ?
One of the suggestions was that it had been trained to search for undersea infrastructure. Certainly worth watching
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m002504p/secrets-of-the-spy-whale
Have a look at how detailed the Soviet mappers were able to map the cities and industrial areas of the UK...
https://redatlasbook.com/cityplansuk
Doesn’t say much about past world power.
This. I joined the Army in 1996 and many were talking about all of this in similar terms back then, same with 'warfare is changing' and 'this/that is obsolete'.
Here we are in 2024 and it's blokes in fighting positions trying to kill each other with tech that is being evolved on the hoof, which will then prompt a counter which may or may not allow one side to maintain an advantage.
This conflict is an interesting revisit of 1980's tactics with drones as the new kid on the block.
The big threat in the 80's was CBRN, arty and armour all delivered through manoeuvre warfare and trench fighting. There was a smattering of aviation threat and frankly suicidal masses airborne drops.
Currently: delete CBRN & Para drops, add UAS & (more precise) precision fires.
Joint Declaration by the Foreign Ministers of Germany, France, Poland (the Weimar Triangle), Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom in Warsaw, 19 November
We consider this also a unique opportunity to renew the foundations of our transatlantic relations with the United States of America by strengthening NATO and ensuring fair burden sharing within the Alliance. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/joint-declaration-by-the-foreign-ministers-of-germany-france-poland-italy-spain-and-the-united-kingdom-in-warsaw-19-november
There was also a BRIXMIS operating on the other side of the IGB.
Some bloody good books on this subject and a few podcasts. One of the LE's in my first unit had done this. I didn't fully grasp the significance of that role as an 18yo ****.
Intelligence is still gathered like that to a degree today. The MK1 eyeball is a powerful intelligence gathering tool that tech fanboys forget about sometimes.
My BIL captains a T45 destroyer
As an aside, about 12 years ago I was crew on a 3 Island Peaks race yacht. We were roughly off the Mull of Kintyre when a PAN PAN PAN came over the radio - another yacht in the race had lost its rudder and was drifting out of control.
There was a back and forth radio conversation with Clyde Coastguard about the emergency and arranging help. Then a chap came on very clear and precise saying "Hello Clyde, this is Dragon. We can be with the casualty within 10 minutes and will assist" This was excellent news for all concerned as the Mull is not somewhere to be drifting out of control with a bunch of runners on board.
Anyway, after the initial back and forth between Coastguard and Dragon, the coastguard watch finally asked the question that everyone listening in was dying to be asked.
"Hello again Dragon. Please can you confirm what size of vessel you are, thank you"
There was a moment of utter silence across the airwaves as everyone waited with baited breath for the killer line.
"Type 45 Destroyer madam"
Silence ensued from the Coastguard for several seconds, during which I swear you could hear cheering and laughter from every boat for miles around. It seemed like the only person who didn't know that HMS Dragon was in the area on working up exercises was the Coastguard
On Welshfarmer’s post up there about Soviet Cold War maps, the backstory is at https://www.wired.com/2015/07/secret-cold-war-maps/. I have the Huddersfield map and it’s fascinating.
They're great, unsurprisingly they're very familiar to the early maps we had in Afghanistan. NATO geo just reproduced them until the data sets built up over the years.
^ Awkward but I'm guessing there might be an element of plausible deniability in play here?
Yup sorry boss our boat accident dropped anchor and well you know the rest.
Soz won't do it again. Although it's the second time apparently.
being reported on several news channels now suspecting Chinese freighter Yi Peng 3 of damaging cables.
I honestly thought China was sitting back and letting Russia get on with it, whilst profiting vastly - I didn't think there was any real danger of them getting involved directly.
Chop cables, break aliexpress and tiktok - what were they thinking?
I'd missed the true significance of the long range ATACMS/Storm Shadows until today. Aside from reaching further into Russian territory, they effectively render their tactical nuclear weapons redundant apparently, because the potential launch sites are all within range of these missiles, and NATO intelligence know where they all are and monitor them. So it's an interesting chess move, albeit one that's come too late. This is probably why Putin is so enraged by it, as it limits his strategic options.
EDIT - Russian tactical nukes have ~400mile range, so to hit anything of value in Ukraine they would have to be within range of new missiles.
There was also a BRIXMIS operating on the other side of the IGB.
One of my flying instructors in the 80s had done that. He had the misfortune to be picked up by the Soviets as one of their people had been caught doing something wrong in the west and they wanted an exchange. He spent an unpleasant day in the back of a Soviet truck with guards pointing loaded guns at him until he was exchanged.
He'd also done a couple of attachments at GCHQ, interesting guy but a bit weird, didn't allow TVs at home for instance.
I honestly thought China was sitting back and letting Russia get on with it, whilst profiting vastly – I didn’t think there was any real danger of them getting involved directly.
China doesn't want anything to disturb its trade and economy, hence telling Russia publicly on a few occasions not to consider nukes.
China also wants to promote the multi-polar world, but can't do that alone. It's Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) has existed since 2015 to make the yuan more usable as an international currency, but can't compete with SWIFT and the US dollar
Russia is most use to China as a strong (but not too strong) partner so that the established "rules-based" world order can be overcome. Russia losing this war would threaten that dynamic
On 2 June 2022 President Biden published an op-ed in the New York Times titled ‘How the US is willing to help Ukraine’ in which he declared that Russia’s action in Ukraine ‘could mark the end of the rules-based international order and open the door to aggression elsewhere, with catastrophic consequences the world over’. There is no mention of international law.
Later, in a press conference at the conclusion of the June 2022 NATO Summit Meeting in Madrid, he warned both Russia and China that the democracies of the world would ‘defend the rules-based order’ (RBO).
John Dugard, Leiden Journal of International Law / Volume 36 / Issue 2 / June 2023 pp. 223 - 232
I agree with all of that, so why are they buggering about with sabotage - thats direct action that is supporting Russia. Surely sitting back and largely keeping quiet whilst supplying Russia what it needs at a huge cost whilst maintaining relations with the west is what suits them best.
Sniping cables is obviously disruptive, but ultimately what does it prove,. it'll be fixed in a week or so - but they've caused a potential further diplomatic spat
Anyone else alarmed by the news reports today of intelligence of a potential significant air attack on Kyiv?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c20726y20kvt
Did the world end yet? Does anyone really take Putins threats seriously anymore?
wake up Biden, stop self deterring yourself you ***** and Europe too !
I wonder what would happen if Russian missiles hit a western Embassy and killed staff ? But not the US (they would retaliate).
It'd be squeaky bum time for a lot of Russian leaders
Could an ATACMS be put in a truck, driven thru a bit of Russia and then target the Kremlin?
A not so insignificant number.
The number of Ukrainian recruits to have been trained under Operation Interflex has reached 50,000, the Defence Secretary has announced.
Not far to go until they will have trained more Ukrainians than there are UK soldiers....it's an impressive number and a significant contribution beyond £s and arms.
Did the world end yet? Does anyone really take Putins threats seriously anymore?
All threats should be taken seriously. Complacency is not the ideal strategy.
But I don't think the threat is that the ICBM's are going to come flying over, I think the threat would be to British and American interests elsewhere on the globe.
Countries in the middle east could receive high end weapons systems, surface to air against drones or aircraft. anti tank systems, more satellite surveillance intel given to them.
As an aside, about 12 years ago I was crew on a 3 Island Peaks race yacht
Out of interest, which yacht were you on ? Did it on a mates boat - 'Flying Squad'
I’m waiting for London to go up in a flash. Putin said he’ll use us as a warning / experiment and now Storm Shadows are in there’s no going back.
he’s despot enough to be pushed to far, and as much as I realise we need to punch the bully on the nose, I am worried about an impending war.
A warning/experiment that would likely see Moscow flattened? I doubt it
Sniping cables is obviously disruptive, but ultimately what does it prove,. it’ll be fixed in a week or so – but they’ve caused a potential further diplomatic spat
That's the thing, if enough are damaged then they won't be repaired quickly. Some damage can take months and $$$mn to repair, especially if the necessary permits to work are complicated.
There are 77 cable ships in the world, according to data supplied by SubTel Forum, but most are focused on the more profitable work of laying new systems. Only 22 are designated for repair, and it’s an aging and eclectic fleet. https://www.theverge.com/c/24070570/internet-cables-undersea-deep-repair-ships
There isn't a way to hold anyone accountable if damage happens in international waters, so diplomatic spat is about it. Diplomatic spats are normal in this world and another one isn't going to matter
China is a major player in the laying and maintenance of subsea cables, so any repairs contracted to HMN Technologies, formerly known as Huawei Marine Networks, gives them additional opportunities if western fears for Huawei and data security are accurate
There's a report from August here... https://www.csis.org/analysis/safeguarding-subsea-cables-protecting-cyber-infrastructure-amid-great-power-competition
12 Storm Shadows used on a military headquarters in Kursk.
London next right?
he’s despot enough to be pushed to far, and as much as I realise we need to punch the bully on the nose, I am worried about an impending war.
Ukraine is calling his bluff.
For starters, if he launches some nukes, and they just fizzle out because they have been scrimping on maintenance, then that's the end of Russia's nuclear threat forever.
I've been following this thread since the start and I'm dismayed by how long it has gone on for and the loss of life as a result. A question for everyone, is Russia toothless? I get the distinct impression that if their bluff were to be called they'd fold like a cheap tent. A huge gamble but how long could this drag on for otherwise.
funkmasterp
Full Member
I’ve been following this thread since the start and I’m dismayed by how long it has gone on for and the loss of life as a result. A question for everyone, is Russia toothless? I get the distinct impression that if their bluff were to be called they’d fold like a cheap tent. A huge gamble but how long could this drag on for otherwise.
It's a mafia family with nukes and it's going to have one hell of an economic hangover after the war is over. Ironically, it might be that, that does for Putin.
Putin only has to fold out for a matter of weeks now till trump is inaugurated.
This is one of the many (!) reasons why we won't be seeing nukes flying towards us. One trumps in office, putin will likely be given (most of) the concessions he wants.
Mind you, Putin will have to contend with a very angry, technologically innovative country on his border... I suspect Ukraine may well give Russia a taste of it's own hybrid warfare for decades to come. Things going bang (including top political and military leaders) with just enough plausible deniability to stay under the radar.
I should imagine Ukraine will be looking into developing it's own nukes too and who can blame them?
and they just fizzle out because they have been scrimping on maintenance, then that’s the end of Russia’s nuclear threat forever.
and if they don’t? Will we all shit ourselves and wonder what to do or do we fire back and just call it a day?
I can see a tactical nuke being used in the Donbas as a scare factor and it probably escalates from thier.
it annoys me that I didn’t vote for Nuclear annialation, yet the little UK always has to follow the US. We are a tiny little power, why do we always choose to be involved in these things, why not someone else take the US partnership ahead, why us?
I doubt it, Putin is just the same as Trump, all mouth and no trousers.
Europe has been very carefull so far, and that is a massive mistake...
I think it's well overdue we start hitting the Russians with x10 more... ++++ them.
For starters, if he launches some nukes, and they just fizzle out because they have been scrimping on maintenance, then that’s the end of Russia’s nuclear threat forever.
All of them? They have such numbers that it would be disastrous even with a very high failure rate.
I should imagine Ukraine will be looking into developing it’s own nukes too and who can blame them?
They've said NATO or nukes, and that they'd prefer NATO.