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Did anyone see the reports that Belarus had shot down a Russian drone?
Interesting. It was just passing through, same as loads have done previously. So why now?
Probably thought it was Ukrainian and trigger happy.
The F16 and pilot lost looks like it was friendly fire too.
Edit to say there are unconfirmed reports it might have been downed by friendly fire from a AFU patriot battery:-(
There are a couple of possibilities here, bearing in mind that it's an unconfirmed report:
1) NATO aircraft and NATO AD systems talk to each other to avoid this. Either it wasn't Patriot or there was a system failure
2) It could have been a soviet system used by Ukraine. In the case of an unverified soviet system the pilot should have been warned to evade while counter-measures were used. Again, a possible system failure
3) The pilot could have flown into debris or an active missile being used in the attack
Whichever, a terrible tragedy that happens in war
EDIT to add a more in-depth link that is far better than my effort 🙂 https://weapons.substack.com/p/ukraine-loses-its-first-f-16
Interesting. It was just passing through, same as loads have done previously. So why now?
President Lukashenko has been broadcasting some cryptic stuff in the last couple of days. He doesn't want war as discussed ^^ and he won't be around for eternity.
Is he ill? Is his reluctance going to cost him his life? Is he loading a private jet with family and wealth to head off somewhere?
I'll find some links and edit this post if I can manage the 15 minutes deadline
Missed it...
Last Saturday offered insight into Lukashenko’s growing paranoia. When asked by a Gorodishche resident about his decision to run for a seventh term as president, Lukashenko responded, “You should get used to the fact that the president will be different. I’m not saying that I’m going to leave you tomorrow, the day after tomorrow and so on. But everything happens in life. You should get used to the fact that I won’t be around forever, just like all of you.”
That is not dictator-talk. In a world of survive or perish, Lukashenko may have just foreshadowed his own transition out of power, which will surely include conditions for his own golden parachute. Unlike his Ukrainian counterpart, flight is his most likely course of action to avoid a fate like that of Benito Mussolini or Nicolae Ceausescu.
Link to ^^ https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/4838862-belarus-lukashenko-russia-ukraine/
Lukashenko has stated that they won’t invade, colour me unsurprised 😉
could be a bluff of course- I doubt it though
Is he loading a private jet with family and wealth to head off somewhere?
As one of the tinniest and pottiest of Tin Pot dictators I'd bet he's had that sucker loaded, fueled and sat in a hanger ready to roll for good time now, esp after he only clung on by the skin of his teeth in 2021.
Dubai here we come.
could be a bluff of course- I doubt it though
It does seem unlikely. If he was going to help out he would have done so when it was still a three day victory parade.
Is he loading a private jet with family and wealth to head off somewhere?Is he loading a private jet with family and wealth to head off somewhere?
I suspect after Prigozhin it may be downgraded to a bus first...I would expect that ol' Pooters has a firm eye on him doing a runner, and will have made it clear it is not acceptable...
If he ran, who replaces? Would Russia try to take over more formally - and would they have any resources to strong arm Belarus as an invading force?
Probably thought it was Ukrainian and trigger happy.
The report I read said the pilot followed it for 15 mins before shooting it down.
If he ran, who replaces? Would Russia try to take over more formally...
There's a real President exiled in Lithuania, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, along with the country's Coordination Council Presidium.
Lukashenko arrested the opposition candidate (her husband) before the elections, but allowed her to stand in because he didn't believe that a woman could win
I suspect after Prigozhin it may be downgraded to a bus first…
Single decker for extra safety, wouldn't want to fall out of an upstairs window in a freak accident when going over a speed bump
Agreed, there's a whole shadow government ready to go the minute Lukashenko's goons are out of the way.
They even have a degree of democratic legitimacy as Tsikhanouskaya is widely believed to have won the 2020 election.
Poland and the Baltics will be absolutely salivating at the prospect of re-orientating Belarus towards 'the West' and I'm sure they'll be doing things behind the scenes to put a few thumbs on the scale.
It's almost worth somebody quietly offering Lukashenko safe passage with his loot just to get him gone peacefully and quickly, hugely unsatisfying though that would be considering what he's inflicted upon his own people. but.. if it helps screw Putin harder and faster... bigger fish and all that.
if it helps screw Putin harder and faster… bigger fish and all that.
Yesterdays comments from Finnish president were around Ukraine doing a great job of instability and uncertainty inside Russia now - and suggestions that all the neighbours should encourage that, as a weakened Russian leadership is a Good Thing for the rest of the world.
Could it be that this war can be ended by causing instability and breakdown of Russia? Would Russia break into separate states / civil war? I know a lot of countries they have significant influence over would happily seek a new allegiance given half a chance...
It's certainly one of the most likely outcomes and one of the better ones for Ukraine and 'The West' in general although the disintegration of the Russian federation would obviously bring up it's own problems in due course.
It's also one of the few proven ways to get Russia to stop it and bugger off, see Afghanistan for details.
and turn it into a long range high speed fighter escort.
They tested it, and it just wasn't very good. Too many blind spots for air to air with Luftwaffe single engine fighters, and just not manoeuvrable or robust enough, and with long range tanks, the P51 was more than capable. The Hornet was supposed to be the "fighter" mossie, but took too long to develop.
Or why on landing craft the front door didn’t have a 90 degree return on it
Can't use them for small vehicles if you do that, and as brutal as it seems, for the loss of life that actually occurred on all the amphibious landings, the cost of making landing craft more complex wouldn't have been worth the extra time, money and material it'd cost to make them.
Edit to say there are unconfirmed reports it might have been downed by friendly fire from a AFU patriot battery
I wonder if the Patriot was on 'auto'. Just sits there and scans the sky, it interprets everything it sees as hostile and aims for the nearest target. There were some issues in the Gulf War when patriot batteries targeted a whole bunch of F-16 and A10's returning to King Fahd airport
I wonder if the Patriot was on ‘auto’. Just sits there and scans the sky, it interprets everything it sees as hostile and aims for the nearest target.
That would be pretty reckless. The AFU are pretty switched on and tech savvy, I can't imagine them doing that in an environment with plenty of friendly aircraft. All modern air defence weapons and military aircraft are fitted with IFF systems to prevent this. It's not perfect of course and mistakes do happen. It's more of an issue in conflicts like the Gulf war where you have a coalition of many air and ground forces and the need to share, protect and coordinate the transponder codes across different nationalities. It should be much less of an issue within a single nation's forces, even if they are operating Western and ex Soviet kit.
Rather than the battery IFF being switched off, I think it's more likely that the aircraft IFF transponder was either off or faulty. A valid IFF response to a battery interrogation proves it's a friendly aircraft but the absence of one does not prove it's an enemy aircraft. That's when the battery commander has to use his judgement and make a difficult decision.
Reuters is insinuating a link between the F16 crash and the dismissal of Ukraine's Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk.
It's way too early for that link to be made and I'd suggest that the dismissal has been in the pipeline for a while https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskiy-dismisses-ukraines-air-force-commander-2024-08-30/
President Zelenskyy is also reported to be in the process of dismissing the head of Ukraine's power grid operator Ukrenergo, Vadym Kudrytskyi https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-power-grid-operator-head-be-dismissed-media-reports-2024-08-30/
Both men have responsibility for protecting the power grid, which I think is a more compelling reason for their dismissal
For those with a geo-political bent, there's plenty to get stuck into at ISW this morning:
-European Union (EU) member state officials continue to express divergent views about Ukraine's ability to use European-provided weapons to strike military targets in Russia.
-Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian and Russian forces made marginal gains in Kursk Oblast on August 30.
-Russian state-owned polling agencies are recognizing limited upticks in Russian domestic discontent towards Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian authorities amid the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast.
-Venezuela extradited Colombian citizens who fought as members of the Ukrainian military to Russia, demonstrating growing Russian-Venezuelan cooperation and Venezuelan support for Russia's war.
-Hungary and Russia continue to deepen their bilateral cooperation.
-Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk as Ukrainian Air Force Commander on August 30.
-Russian forces recently advanced near Svatove, Pokrovsk, and Donetsk City.
-French outlet Le Monde reported on August 30 that about 100 mercenaries from the Russian "Bear Brigade" private military company departed Burkina Faso to join Russian forces fighting in Kursk Oblast.
https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-30-2024
The final item is one of several over a couple of weeks about different Russian forces across Africa flying troops home to fight. Resources are getting tight, which links into the domestic discontent also reported in the same article
A large attack by Ukraine on Russian fuel depots and energy centres. It seems they are after the fuel to power the war machine rather than heating for civilians, but seems very risky? Or is it creating awareness of the war back in Russia?
Of course Russia's missiles just aimed at residential blocks, sports facilities, playgrounds and similar as much as energy supplies for civilians.
A large attack by Ukraine on Russian fuel depots and energy centres. It seems they are after the fuel to power the war machine rather than heating for civilians, but seems very risky? Or is it creating awareness of the war back in Russia?
I think that you've answered your own questions:
Damage Russian logistics; fuel is arguably their most basic need because it powers transport, offence and defence
Move Russian materiel and troops from the frontline to protect logistics. They have to move troops rather than mobilise greater numbers because of public attitudes reflected in polling. Shifting air defence to Moscow would help in freeing Ukraine's fighter/bomber aircraft
Taking recent polls and pressuring the Kremlin further by attacking around Moscow and the adjacent Tver region https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/09/1/7472902/. "Russian state-owned polling agencies are recognizing limited upticks in Russian domestic discontent towards Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian authorities amid the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast." ^^ If state-owned agencies acknowledge discontent then it's undeniable.
Levada Center's polling data indicates that the Kremlin's refusal to fully transition Russian society at large to a wartime footing and the Kremlin’s ongoing domestic information operations aimed at normalizing the war to Russian society have mitigated against domestic war weariness thus far and that the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast has not changed this mindset. The fact that Russian society in general appears to not be experiencing war fatigue likely grants the Kremlin flexibility in how it strategizes to wage a protracted war of attrition against Ukraine. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-1-2024
Looks like the Russian Pokrovsk offensive has stalled for the time being, possibly showing that the Kursk offensive has had a positive effect.
We must also be near the wet and muddy season, closely followed by winter. I was reading a piece (will go find it again) saying that the Russians are poorer at logistics and the gains they have made in some areas leave them with difficult logistics and valley bottom/muddy. The Ukrainians have defended and set up on drier ground over looking the muddy logistics routes...
Whilst I'm very happy to bang the 'rah-rah go Ukraine' drum on here, It should be noted that Russia doesn't need to take Pokrovsk, just get its artillery close enough so that it can safely batter the rail junction there into dust.
Fully taking the actual town would be a nice little propaganda coup for the Kremlin so I'm sure they'll try but the main objective of screwing up Ukraine's rail logistics does not require it.
It also shoud be noted that estimates for recent Russian Casualties in the Pokrovsk salient are now well into 5 figures, a year or so ago I commented on here that one way Ukraine wins this is by fighting another 10-20 Bakhmut's where they just bleed Russian attackers white, well they just put another brick in that wall.
Pokrovsk may be more strategically significant than Bakhmut but here Ukraine is killing huge numbers of contract soldiers rather than Wagner convicts, that is going to only ratchet up discontent back home.
I'd be surprised if taking the rail infrastructure at Pokrovsk is considered significant by either Russia or Ukraine. Adding the city to the list of Russian gains is a media bonus because of its size as compared to some of the "cities" that Russia has gained recently
The significance is in disrupting Ukraine's road logistics to both the NE and S of Pokrovsk and the resultant comparatively easy run for Russia W beyond the Donbas regional border
Ukraine recognised that additional forces wouldn't achieve much more than slowing the Russian advance. This slow down would have allowed Ukraine more time to build defences W of Pokrovsk and would have allowed them to attrite Russian forces more.
The gamble was that using those same additional forces in Kursk would take the pressure off Pokrovsk by diverting Russian forces for several weeks, but Russia didn't take the bait.
Kursk might still turn into a strategic advantage for Ukraine by changing things significantly (Pokrovsk, on the other hand, isn't strategic). If Ukraine has shown that Russia's red-lines are just hot air and the US allows western long-range weapons to be used then that will be a significant game-changer
Pokrovsk, on the other hand, isn’t strategic
Not in terms of Russia taking it will end the war but it certainly will great assist Russia's further advances, Iwould certainly argue that it's fall would be significant.
Perun has his usual measured take on it.
Strategic or otherwise, both sides think it’s important.
I’ve not seen any reports on rasputitsa yet?
^ see my comment above. I can't find the article I read from someone like Institute of War who suggested that Ukraine were positioning to make very good use of it through being on dry land above wet Russian supply routes, across rivers etc.
I thought this was interesting. An interview by a Kyiv independent reporter with a Russian POW captured in the Kursk oblast incursion. They are at pains to explain at the beginning of the interview that it was voluntary and compliant with international law. He's an older contract soldier, not a conscript. He gives a good insight into his motivations, training, quality of command and his perceptions of Putin, the war and Ukraine prior to his capture.
It's sad and depressing. You can see the influence of Putin's propaganda on some of his views, but you can also see scepticism, regret and remorse. He comes across as an intelligent man who has ended up in a shit situation due to being misled and circumstances mostly beyond his control. It's little insights like this into the human impact on Russians, as well as Ukrainians that underline what a thunder **** Putler is.
It’s sad and depressing. You can see the influence of Putin’s propaganda on some of his views, but you can also see scepticism, regret and remorse. He comes across as an intelligent man who has ended up in a shit situation due to circumstances mostly beyond his control.
They are all human (both sides).
If we look back to history we have plenty of evidence that human beings are always fighting with each others for whatever reasons.
The last few hundred years saw the expansion of Western empires colonising less technologically advance nations, creating lasting conflicts in their path. But empires do not last forever and as in history empires collapse after a period of time, but it is the transitional period that is usually considered as the difficult with death and destruction before it can stabilise again.
There is no right or wrong in a conflict, and the victors will always dictate the narrative.
@chewkw I agree with all of that, apart from
There is no right or wrong in a conflict
War is of course a failure of diplomacy and undeniably a terrible thing which results in immeasurable suffering. To be avoided at all costs. However it can be much, much worse and the suffering amplified if the belligerents ignore established international law and treaties which try to govern the conduct of armed conflict. The stuff about treatment of prisoners, bombardment of civilians, respecting medical staff, the weaponising of rape and sexual violence, torture etc. Ignoring those accepted rules is undeniably 'wrong' is it not? Sadly, all sides fail to live up to these rules at times. In some cases it's a local breakdown of discipline and in others it's strategic policy. It seems to me that Russia tends more towards the latter.
Thanks. I watched that.
It was interesting and depressing in equal measure. Poor guy.
It really does sound like the Russian military are running on fumes, holding out for Trump in November. So what happens if Harris takes it?
War is of course a failure of diplomacy and undeniably a terrible thing which results in immeasurable suffering. To be avoided at all costs. However it can be much, much worse and the suffering amplified if the belligerents ignore established international law and treaties which try to govern the conduct of armed conflict. The stuff about treatment of prisoners, bombardment of civilians, respecting medical staff, the weaponising of rape and sexual violence, torture etc. Ignoring those accepted rules is undeniably ‘wrong’ is it not? Sadly, all sides fail to live up to these rules at times. In some cases it’s a local breakdown of discipline and in others it’s strategic policy. It seems to me that Russia tends more towards the latter.
Currently they are in the transitional period so the narrative is uncertain with each side proclaiming to be on the right side of history. But once the situation situation stabilises they narrative will be created by the magnanimous victor(s). Generally, the narrative will focus on the good (victor) prevailing over the evil (the defeated) with the victor(s) magnanimous celebration in the remembrance of the greatness of peace, forgiveness etc, and by creating virtue of victory. Virtue is derived from the outcome of defeating and causing calamity onto the opponents, and with the opponents submission. Plenty of examples in history but there is a current conflict in middle east now where virtue is put into action and with the narrative of the victors.
It seems to me that Russia tends more towards the latter.
It would, because that is what all your (our) media are broadcasting.
t really does sound like the Russian military are running on fumes, holding out for Trump in November. So what happens if Harris takes it?
Probably about the same as happened when Ukraine got Leopards, Storm Shadow, Abrams, Patriots, F-16s i.e. nothing much.
It would, because that is what all your (our) media are broadcasting.
I don't think they are making up the abduction of Ukrainian children, the bombing of hospitals, the torture of POWs, the mass murder of civilians in Bucha. They are simply reporting what has happened. Even without Western media, Russian soldiers aren't shy about posting videos which would be classed as incriminating if there was the slightest risk of any official come back . These have included the torture of prisoners such as removal of genitalia, summary execution, beheadings and sledgehammer murders of their own for desertion.
I don't think for a second Ukrainian forces are entirely blameless, but there isn't the state sanctioned contempt for international law that Russia displays
Probably about the same as happened when Ukraine got Leopards, Storm Shadow, Abrams, Patriots, F-16s i.e. nothing much.
Why some optimists might have expected those things to result in a swift Ukrainian victory, I think most on here have been a bit more measured and realistic. You say 'nothing much'. I would argue that without those things and Western support more generally, Ukraine would now be subjugated and subsumed into Russia. The Baltic states would be next (but not last) in line. Now whether you or I think that is preferable to Ukraine continuing to resist is moot. It's up to them and it seems they are pretty determined to prevent it.
but there isn’t the state sanctioned contempt for international law that Russia displays
Maybe. Who knows? There is state sanctioned contempt for international law displayed by Ukraines allies elsewhere on the globe, so why would Ukraine be specially virtuous?
so why would Ukraine be specially virtuous?
If for no other reason, that the continued international coalition of support depends on it.
If for no other reason, that the continued international coalition of support depends on it
That doesn’t seem to be a factor elsewhere. Saddam Hussein was supported by the west despite gassing the Kurds.
Yes, sometimes (often) Western foreign policy is unprincipled and duplicitous. I'm not claiming otherwise. Gaza and relations with Israel being a much more recent example. But this thread is about the war in Ukraine. Even if our politicians are self serving and unscrupulous, they are beholden to public opinion. If there were widespread, state sanctioned war crimes by the Kyiv government, western governments would come under a lot of public pressure to stop aid. Zelensky can't afford that.
Putin doesn't have the same pressures because he has total control of the state media and thus public opinion. So he doesn't have to give a toss about international law or atrocities committed by his troops. Currently, there is pretty strong public support for continued aid to Ukraine in most Western countries It's not entirely altruistic and standing up for the plucky underdogs. Especially in eastern Europe and the Baltics, they know what awaits them if Putin is emboldened by a win in Ukraine.
If there were widespread, state sanctioned war crimes by the Kyiv government, western governments would come under a lot of public pressure to stop aid. Zelensky can’t afford that.
Since you brought it up - there are widespread state sanctioned war crimes by the Israeli government. How much has that resulted in aid being stopped?
i believe, for what it’s worth, that the Russians have been another level of evil in this war. But Grozny, Aleppo etc don’t stand out much from Raqaa and Gaza as atrocities perpetrated on a civilian population, so I’m not confident that if/when the boot is on the other foot we won’t see some horrors of Ukraine’s making.
so I’m not confident that if/when the boot is on the other foot we won’t see some horrors of Ukraine’s making.
Perhaps we will. I personally doubt that they will ever reach the depths that Russia has plumbed with the encouragement of atrocities at the highest level. I don't know if you ever watch Russia Media monitor? The talking heads on state TV call for genocide in Ukraine on on almost daily basis. One pundit called for Ukrainian children to be drowned or burned alive. On a prime time TV chat show. I don't see that happening in Ukraine.
Western media, for all its faults HAS reported on some Ukrainian war crimes at individual or unit level. I wonder how many of of the multitude of proven Russia war crimes are reported by the the Russia media? The Red Cross and other international monitors are allowed access to battle areas by the Ukrainian authorities. Not so by Russia. Even though they (Ukraine) are fighting for their very existence and Russia is fighting for conquest and to massage an old man's ego.
"war crimes" will happen in any army and any conflict. Young men desensitised to violence and packed full of hate for their opponents. I can think of atrocities committed in many wars by all sides. UK troops included
I'd be astonished if there were none committed by ukranian troops but I will also bet its a tiny % of those committed by Russian troops
^^ yep