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Apparently some of the conscripts may have been put in the army by way of punishment after being convicted of 'non specific crimes' (opposing the government). Also people who are seen as 'weak, not manly enough etc can find themselves sent to the army to toughenn up.
Combined with the fact that many that have been sent in have only had 4 months training that basically consisted of getting the hell beaten out of them by 'the grandads' it's not difficult to see why Putin wouldn't care about them. To say that their morale is low doesn't even come close,
Interesting piece on CNN regarding the effects of sanctions... It's effectively lead to unofficial sanctions on Russian oil exports as western companies won't touch it for fear of falling foul of current sanctions or ones soon to be imposed.
One Russian company attempting to sell a tanker load well below market... With no takers.
This will hurt Putin. Also the West of course.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/03/investing/russia-oil-sanctions-ukraine/index.html
Dazh, lots of truths in that … but it’s all a bit “well, if she hadn’t sought help when he was threatening her with violence, he wouldn’t have beaten her”. We know Putin considers Ukraine a “non-country”, and we know he doesn’t want other states to treat Ukraine as a sovereign state, but as if it was part of his world, which he should control. This war is not a response to NATO, it is a move by Putin to create a legacy and demonstrate his strength at home.
Hmmm, Squirrel of Doom complicates that thread a bit.
All NATOs fault obvs.
Nobody is saying it is all nato's fault. Though we should maybe separate nato and the US when it comes to foreign policy.
What we should at least be able to agree on is it was naive to think that going right up to Russia's borders was anything but a good idea. After all it has led us to our current situation.
So blame should lie with all.
Just a blanket denial isnt going to help anything.
dyna-ti
So blame should lie with all.
Blame lies directly with Russia, and no one else for the invasion of Ukraine. But that doesn't means there's not other things going on.
naive to think that going right up to Russia’s borders was anything but a good idea
It’s either that or wait for the RF to come up to the borders of more existing NATO countries. Which recent NATO signatories would you have turned down? All the Baltic states? How many NATO countries border Russia? Go on… and would you kick them all out of NATO? Putin is showing his strength and expanding by force… NATO hasn’t accelerated that by welcoming Eastern European states, arguably it is one of the key things that has slowed it down.
And, your regular reminder… Ukraine is not in NATO.
Woulda', Coulda', shoulda'.
There were many twists and turns after the USSR collapsed, I'm not sure it's possible to look at one particular decision as pivotal.
The threat faced now is existential to those counterfactual arguments.
"you"
Not me mate.
But tell you what. This is the situation we are in, so just keep going in this direction and we'll see what happens eh ?.
Ukraine is not in NATO.
And your regular reminder - Did Ukraine not express interest in joining NATO ?.
dyna-ti
So blame should lie with all
“There are very fine people on both sides”
NATO has expanded, that’s clear. Plenty of maps available to show the growth eastwards.
We’ve also been involved in many illegal wars in the last 30 years, removing governments we’ve not been happy with. Our governments,
former politicians and senior military leaders are profiteering nicely from these previous wars.
It still doesn’t make Putin and the Russian invasion in anyway justified.
Don’t know if anybody else has been listening to BBC World Service but… BBC World Service has had ex Putin advisor and speech writer on this evening, absolutely condemning of him, but he says the truth about Putin is he isn’t the calculating genius that we think he is, nor is he a raging Imperialist. No the truth is he just wants to be popular!
And sadly for the world, Putins ratings go up when Russia fights a battle (ones they’ve carefully picked so that they can come away with small victories), and in times of peace his ratings go down and within 2yrs or so the public starts protesting against him and figures like Navalny start gaining more and more support.
But this time he had accidentally bitten off seriously more than he could chew. His “intelligence” on Ukraine is woeful basically because he has surrounded himself in an echo chamber, nobody will disagree with him and he has romanticised about being welcomed as a liberator believing that Ukrainians actually believe his hype anyway and would be easily swayed. Apparently Zelensky now calling for 1 on 1 talks, nobody else involved, is a very smart move because they know Putin has now retreated into his Nuclear Bunker in the Ural Mountains where he won’t now come out until the war is over… His threat of escalation of nuclear power is because he’d already played all his cards and was shown to have nothing in poker terms, now all he has left is bluffing!
This could be interesting… An international case of “how to give Putin the right amount of rope, not too little, not too much, to first of all allow him to climb down off his pedestal to safety, before then kicking the stool away once he thinks he’s safe so he hangs himself”…
"NATO hasn’t accelerated that by welcoming Eastern European states, arguably it is one of the key things that has slowed it down."
Absolutely, If we're getting all counterfactual about it then what are the odds that one or more of the Baltic States would have been Belarusified already had they not signed up to NATO?
For anyone pinning their hopes Russian protesters, there could be legislation passed tomorrow that would conscript those arrested for protesting.
The very definition of cannon fodder.
Sounds like Ukraine is more than Putin can handle
Rumours are he's about to declare martial law in Russia and begin conscription because he doesn't have the troops to carry on
The worrying thing is that he's backing himself ever tighter into a corner
With Russia's army busy in Ukraine, how does he police the Caucuses or Kahzakstan or even Belarus?
https://twitter.com/MarkUrban01/status/1499420122653638661?t=nPtchGj_he4l_Hw0xir1YQ&s=19
Interesting thread on state of Russian equipment
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1499164245250002944?t=FzTG80hbyf20S7wwnJPtYg&s=19
So blame should lie with all.
Blame lies with Putin. He's the one who ordered his troops to bombard cities full of innocent civilians. As far as I'm aware, NATO has not fired a shot in this war. Ukraine was attacked by Russia. NATO and Ukraine do not share the blame for this. It's all on Putin.
NATO has expanded, that’s clear.
Because countries apply to join, because they see the threat from Russia, which just now has invaded a country that wanted to join NATO, and has threatened nukes in response to any inteference from NATO members.
The problem here is not NATO.
"With Russia’s army busy in Ukraine, how does he police the Caucuses or Kahzakstan or even Belarus?"
With fear? A few days ago I might have posted that unrest in other bordering countries or provinces might drain resources and cause problems for Putin, I feel a bit differently now.
Rumours are he’s about to declare martial law in Russia and begin conscription because he doesn’t have the troops to carry on
Not much point in press-ganging conscripts if you already have tens of thousands sitting around starving and out of ammo and fuel.
Interesting thread about Russian paratroopers looking scary but being pretty much useless in real combat.
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1499393006004158466
Because countries apply to join, because they see the threat from Russia
Perhaps if Russia had been involved in western thinking from the start,then the other countries wouldnt have had anything to worry about.
That and the $30billion incentive fee.
@Pondo, I’m not saying there’s no reason to join NATO, but a previous poster mentioned NATO isn’t interested in expansionism. Well, maybe not as a collective. But certainly individual members are.
Our illegal wars haven’t always had us being on the good guys side irrespective of what our politicians say. There’s plenty of opinion pieces from way before this war started regarding the US and NATO’s expansion eastwards. There’s an awful lot more to it than just looking after our neighbours.
In this war the blame lies solely with Putin. I actually don’t think this is just about NATO, but Putin does appear to hold a grudge since Yugoslavia and has said this started then.
By the way, I’m completely anti war. Anti Putin and blame him entirely.
This is quite apt to how I feel at the moment:
“I'd like to share a revelation during my time here. It came to me when I tried to classify your species. I realized that you're not actually mammals. Every mammal on this planet instinctively develops a natural equilibrium with the surrounding environment but you humans do not. You move to an area and you multiply and multiply until every natural resource is consumed. The only way you can survive is to spread to another area. There is another organism on this planet that follows the same pattern. Do you know what it is? A virus. Human beings are a disease, a cancer of this planet. You are a plague.”
I am really wondering if the best thing to happen to this planet is for a Nuke to be fired. Incredibly depressing thought. But this is just going to go on and on. Until the next war. All the while we are killing this planet.
Apologies for going off on a tangent. (I’ve only had 2 beers so no excuse!)
"Not much point in press-ganging conscripts if you already have tens of thousands sitting around starving and out of ammo and fuel."
In the first instance: it's a form of punishment for dissenters and in the second; provides more canon fodder. At the very least' there's no downside for Putin in doing so.
If I find myself thinking what Putin might do I ask myself 'what would Stalin do?" It's not unthinkable that conscripts would be thrown into the fight with a modern day equivalent of the NKVD at their backs, threatening to shoot them if they don't advance.
Those Russian conscripts that have surrendered so far might be the lucky ones. What's to say that threats to persecute conscripts families won't soon be issued should they choose to surrender? We have to accept that for Putin nothing is unconscionable.
“I’d like to share a revelation during my time here. It came to me when I tried to classify your species. I realized that you’re not actually mammals. Every mammal on this planet instinctively develops a natural equilibrium with the surrounding environment but you humans do not. You move to an area and you multiply and multiply until every natural resource is consumed. The only way you can survive is to spread to another area. There is another organism on this planet that follows the same pattern. Do you know what it is? A virus. Human beings are a disease, a cancer of this planet. You are a plague.”
Yes we've all seen 'The Matrix' It's a quote from the movie.
Although some here would argue the case that it is all the fault of Russia.
Nice to see our usual resident lefties living up to the example of their messiah as useful idiots…
*slow handclap*
It’s worth watching Newscast on iplayer from tonight. Rory Stewart was on and talked a lot of sense (which is obviously why he’s no longer in the Tory party)
Please, can we chill out a bit and stay on topic?
With Russia’s army busy in Ukraine, how does he police the Caucuses or Kahzakstan or even Belarus?
Yeah I was thinking that too; presumably Putin believes he's suppressed e.g. the Chechens enough (i.e. killed 'em all) that there won't be uprisings elsewhere in the RF while the armed forces are in Ukraine...
Berlin residents waiting to take in Ukrainian families for the night, after they arrive by train…
https://twitter.com/glr_berlin/status/1499452207208574992?s=21
I do hope that Vlad's Rockford Files are giving him monumental gyp.
Does anyone remember the movie 'Threads' from 1984.
With all the talk of the cold war I seemed to remember the 'Protect and Survive' booklet and also remembered I'd seen a film set in the UK about a nuclear exchange, that was at the time pretty harrowing.
Apparently the film was shown the once, then locked away never to be repeated, not banned, just too bad to be put back on TV.
I've since found a few clips on You Tube, but that's about it. In the currently climate I don't think i would want to watch it again. A few scenes stick in the mind.
Of all the Apocalyptic movies both UK and US, and despite its small budget, it really is a pretty horrific if not well made production.
This was the trailer
And the cinematic poster for it.
I don’t think Putin wants WW3, I think he wants territory. He may or may not be mad but he is acting as a Tsar ruling over an empire would.
I'm not even sure the territory is that important any more, he wants ratings! Like the Tsars and the Roman Emperors, he wants to be liked, but doesn't posses any likeable qualities but does posses an all conquering megalomaniac streak, so he just reverts to type... Feigned popularity is as good as real popularity in his eyes, so... 🤷🏻♂️
Anyway... Speaking of Russian Tsars and the Roman Empire again...
On 15th March 44 BC Julius Caesar was assassinated
On 15th March 1917 Tsar Nicholas II abdicated before he could be overthrown
On 15th March 1923 Lenin suffered his 3rd and final stroke, all but killing him off.
11 days people... 11 more days! 🤔
Joking aside though, I'm guessing there's a significant reason the ICC aren't pissing about with preparing the evidence for a war crime trial against Putin and his cronies... They don't normally start this soon I am sure!
The way things are escalating for Putin, things could potentially go very sour, very quickly. The irony that he could be begging NATO to get involved to take him to the Hague rather than letting his own population get medieval on his ass would be something else!
If you flick BBC News on now (this weeks Hardtalk) they’re interviewing writer Andrew Kurkov, a Russian who’s lived his life in Ukraine
It’s well worth a watch to get a handle on it all. He’s just referred to this as ‘the best university for an independent Ukraine’
Russian troops attacking the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, the largest in Europe. So that’s his plan, if he can’t have Ukraine then he’ll make sure no one else can either.
Live feed from plant below
March the 15th ?. My Brother in laws birthday is the 14th and i got him a bottle of quality Mead.
I think we should finish the bottle the same night 😆
Kadyrov has tied his fate to Putin, should there be rumblings in the Caucasus I would expect him to clamp down brutally.
I would expect in the Stans' the respective government's are keeping a very close eye on their populations and not looking to antagonize uncle Vlad in any way right now.
If we use our imaginations, there's a few options Putin could take to send out a warning. Trump dropped the 'mother of all bombs' on a near deserted mountain range in Afghanistan, sending out a message to NK, it had the largest non nuclear warhead. Would you trust Putin not to go one step further? Maybe throw a small nuclear artillery shell into the desert? He'll just call it a 'test' firing?
Rory Stewart’s opinion was that if Putin is really cornered then he’d probably have no qualms about launching a tactical nuclear warhead at Kyiv.
That’s pretty scary shit
Does everyone else feel like this all feels totally surreal? I never thought I’d see these questions even raised.
Will somebody use a tactical nuclear weapon against a European city?
It appears that’s where we now are
^^ An ex head of NATO last night said if nukes were used in ukraine then NATO involvement in ukraine is inevitable...
Oh great… the largest nuclear power plant in Europe is presently on fire. Russian troops are shooting the firefighters trying to put it out
If it goes up it’ll be Chernobyl x 10
Maybe no need for those tactical nuclear weapons after all..
It is right at the front door of the station, wild, camera looks to be on that building just in front of the 1 building here, if you rewind back you can see that 1 building about an hour ago, camera spun round.
https://www.google.com/maps/ @47.5041661,34.586806,3a,16.8y,340.12h,93.11t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1s-47_kP6LJ2nNmy64h9gO4A!2e0!6shttps:%2F%2Fstreetviewpixels-pa.googleapis.com%2Fv1%2Fthumbnail%3Fpanoid%3D-47_kP6LJ2nNmy64h9gO4A%26cb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile.gps%26w%3D203%26h%3D100%26yaw%3D309.7986%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i13312!8i6656
^^ That link above just takes me to a Google map centred on my own house. Fairly sure we aren't nuclear powered though, or taking fire?
Wonder which wind direction that region is going to have over the next week?
I suspect we'll know by morning if there is a containment leak or such there.
Sorry, Google map link working now.
His “intelligence” on Ukraine is woeful basically because he has surrounded himself in an echo chamber, nobody will disagree with him and he has romanticised about being welcomed as a liberator believing that Ukrainians actually believe his hype anyway and would be easily swaye
Interesting that someone close to him has said that. I've been wondering if he actually believes what he's saying himself or if it's just a line for public consumption.
Question for the older forumites, how does the present situation compare to the Cuban missile crises? I mean just in terms of public feeling, was that more or less scary than now, did nuclear war look more or less likely then then today?
Russian troops attacking the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, the largest in Europe. So that’s his plan
There is no plan any more... The "plan" went out of the window the moment Kyiv proved it wouldn't capitulate after 2/3 days.
Oh great… the largest nuclear power plant in Europe is presently on fire. Russian troops are shooting the firefighters trying to put it out
If it goes up it’ll be Chernobyl x 10
Maybe no need for those tactical nuclear weapons after all..
Binners... PLEASE! I'm actually worried for your mental health right now mate. We're all seriously ****ing anxious for sure, but as Squirrelking kindly explained there's no way that a nuclear plant can go off like a bomb unless the reactor superheats and a runaway thermonuclear reaction begins... Which is what happened @ Chernobyl. Your reactions aren't healthy! Have a pint, have a spliff... Take a day or two out of here, and go out on your bike! Whatever it takes...
The Russian troops shooting firefighters though! I don't think there is a strong enough word to describe actions like that... Vindictive doesn't quite cut it for sure!
I think it's safe to say Putin's thrown any thoughts about winning hearts and minds that he might have had out of the window! 🤷🏻♂️
An ex head of NATO last night said if nukes were used in ukraine then NATO involvement in ukraine is inevitable…
I think the rest of the world came to that conclusion the moment Vlad made the Nuclear threat!
mboy
Free MemberThere is no plan any more… The “plan” went out of the window the moment Kyiv proved it wouldn’t capitulate after 2/3 days.
I know there's a desire to show the russians as incompetent, but they didn't rock up with a 200k troops with only a plan A.
If there is any radioactive emissions from the plant... Winds appear to be blowing to the South/ East over there for the next few days.
there’s no way that a nuclear plant can go off like a bomb unless the reactor superheats and a runaway thermonuclear reaction begins… Which is what happened @ Chernobyl.
Even that's overstating things.
1. It cannot explode like a nuclear bomb. A nuclear bomb requires highly enriched uranium or plutonium. Reactor fuel isn't enriched enough to sustain the type of reaction that a bomb uses.
2. It can overheat and explode in a thermal explosion like at Chernobyl. In that case, the operators were trying to restart the reactor incorrectly and withdrew all the control rods. It was a very bad accident that spread radiation across Europe, but it wasn't a nuclear explosion. That's about as bad an accident it's possible to have with a reactor because the shielding around the core was breached and the graphite core burned.
3. The reactor in Ukraine is a light-water reactor, not a graphite reactor like the Chernobyl one. If the core is breached by artillery fire, it will be more like the Fukushima accident in Japan. Still bad, but an order of magnitude less bad than Chernobyl because you don't have hundreds of tonnes of burning graphite core.
https://twitter.com/james_acton32/status/1499543052435836928
Just came on here because I heard about the fire in the nuclear power station. For ****'s sake Putin! Enough already!!
Even that’s overstating things.
I don't know anywhere near as much about Nuclear Power as you do for sure, but I was putting things in laymans terms to stop Binners and any other "end of days" prophets having an anxiety meltdown...
Apologies if my terminology wasn't totally correct!
I have however also learnt more about Nuclear Power now though, so thank you for the detailed explanation... 👍🏻
Plan A: take Kyiv and the whole of Ukraine with it.
Plan B: take the east, half of Kyiv and the Black Sea coastline.
Plan C: take the East of the country and half of Kyiv, leaving, or negotiating (wishful thinking) the return of Odessa to Ukraine.
Plan D: don't really want to go there....
I think the answer lies between B and C, with Ukraine divided like cold war Germany. Putin will like the symbolism and the West will know where it stands, the situation will have a farmiliar ring to it, though what's left of Ukraine won't be full of NATO forces.
Who knows, Putin might gift the currently occupied region West of the river, North of Kyiv to the Belarussians, Kyiv having great historical significance to all three countries (would be a good sell back home).
If the Ukrainians lose Odessa then there's not a lot left to defend that is of great strategic importance, Kyiv will be left till the end and might be spared (but divided) if negotiations are successful.
In the meantime Vlad wants the West to be fretting about nukes whilst he marches on to Moldova. If he gets there quickly then he might stop and negotiate, if the Ukranians hold on in the South West then it could drag on.
From the Beeb:
Safety of nuclear plant 'secured' - official
The head of the Zaporozhia regional state administration says that the safety of the Zaporizhzia power plant is "secured".Alexander Starukh posted just one sentence on Facebook, saying that he had spoken to the director of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station in Enerhodar, and had been assured of its safety.
"The director of the ZNPP assured me that at the moment, the nuclear security of the object is secured," he wrote.
It comes as top Ukrainian officials have warned of a possible nuclear meltdown due to reported Russian shelling there.
Is put me or are there more people up late on the forum these days?
Im usually on here but at night/early morning but it's much livelier than usual.
The Australian members will be on soon.
Plan C: take the East of the country and half of Kyiv, leaving, or negotiating (wishful thinking) the return of Odessa to Ukraine.
He wants the whole country but the best he can achieve is probably half the country (more is a bonus) or the entire area east of the river, plus negotiate the remaining Ukraine not to join NATO. This is provided Ukraine is able to prevent further advancement. The further west they go they more they will suffer.
As for pressing the button Putin will be removed by his own people before he can even put his finger on the button. His inner circle will not permit that because they don't want to live in a world that they cannot enjoy (no more expensive holidays, expensive brands, nice cars, parties etc so what's the point living like normal mortal having to cook own meals using firewood).
Is put me or are there more people up late on the forum these days?
Yes, late because I am also listening to news source from different parts of the world.
Firefighters are finally at the scene
Is put me or are there more people up late on the forum these days?
It's not you, I can't stop doomscrolling about the Ukraine war
Assuming the Russians don't actually shell the reactors, the problem is keeping the cooling systems going. The reactors have apparently been shut down but they still need the cooling systems running because there are highly radioactive byproducts of fission in the fuel rods (not uranium, but stuff that has formed when uranium was bombarded with neutrons under normal reactor operations). This is what happened at Fukushima - the reactors were shut down and were intact after the earthquake, but the tsunami destroyed the backup diesel generators and there was no electricity to power the cooling systems. The operators just sat there for days and watched while the reactors overheated and there was a hydrogen explosion. The Ukrainian reactors need external power to avoid the same fate.
The only solution I can see is something like the Iraqi situation back in 1990. The goal back then was limited to kicking Iraqi forces out of Kuwait, not overthrowing Hussein.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1499590983989743617
Johnson says Putin's 'reckless actions' now 'threaten the safety of all of Europe'
Another sound bite or actual threat of potential military action?
The only solution I can see is something like the Iraqi situation back in 1990. The goal back then was limited to kicking Iraqi forces out of Kuwait, not overthrowing Hussein.
Sounds appropriate
I've said a few times that I think Putin is bluffing regarding nukes.
Im not sure I would hold that opinion if NATO enters Ukraine unfortunately.
Anyway, off to kip now. Been up reading a new zombie apocalypse novel that arrived today. Very good it is too! Reading fictional stuff like this calms be oddly enough.lol
Just came on here because I heard about the fire in the nuclear power station. For ****’s sake Putin! Enough already!!
I was properly bricking it when I woke up this morning, clicked the news tabon my phone and the headline said "Nuclear fire."
At least it's a Fukushima scenario not a Chernobyl one, hopefully.
Apparently, the fire at the reactor was in a training facility, not the reactor building. It's still mental that Russia would attack a nuclear reactor, just so much to go wrong there.
For anyone not bothering to click on Dazhs Arnaud Bertrand tweet.
The guys bio two liner is this;
Founder of http://MeAndQi.com, the website that explains Chinese Medicine.Tweets mostly about China, a country in which I live and that I love.
In the first instance: it’s a form of punishment for dissenters and in the second; provides more canon fodder. At the very least’ there’s no downside for Putin in doing so.
I don’t think the purpose is to punish but to threaten, in order to prevent dissent.
Not sure any commander want their ranks containing dissenters already brave enough to take risks and subsequently armed.
For anyone not bothering to click on Dazhs Arnaud Bertrand tweet.
The guys bio two liner is this;
Founder of http://MeAndQi.com , the website that explains Chinese Medicine.
Tweets mostly about China, a country in which I live and that I love.
The multiple sources he quotes are pretty interesting and relevant though wouldn't you say?
What we should at least be able to agree on is it was naive to think that going right up to Russia’s borders was anything but a good idea.
I don't think it's naive at all, I think in hindsight it was lucky it was there at all, if the attack in Ukraine shows us anything, as you have agreed on this thread, it shows that both the US and RF will only attack proxy states. If Ukraine had been admitted, we wouldn't be here right now. NATO is Putin's animus, because it prevents him from restoring the Russian Empire. where the border of that organisation is, is immaterial, it's a red herring . if it wasn't that it would've been the EU. or the European Defence Strategy, any narrative that he can use would've served his purpose The mistake in the analysis is expecting Putin to act like a rational head of state who wants peace. He doesn't, he wants expand his control over a larger Empire.
After all it has led us to our current situation.
No, Putin personal animus with the rest of Europe for not paying him the attention he thinks he deserves is what's lead us to this current situation.
It's called "Stop The War". Not "Stop War", or "Stop All Wars", that's because the "The" in the title refers to Western Imperialist expansion. If you see every conflict through the lens of anti-western Imperialism, then this one's no different, but but if you've got blinkers on you might miss the possibility that Putin is the threat.
They are interesting in that they demonstrate that there are those who believe appeasement of Putin will lead to peace. History has proved time and again, and is proving in Ukraine, that that is not the case.
The mistake in the analysis is expecting Putin to act like a rational head of state who wants peace. He doesn’t, he wants expand his control over a larger Empire.
This, sadly, seems about right.
I'm just hoping he runs out of bombs, or functioning kit/men, or patience of the Russian people, or breath, as soon as possible. But that may be too optimistic.
What's the likelihood of a Russian military coup?
I think i know one the reasons that the armour isn't having the effect tjat Pootang wanted.
It might be alot to do with the 15,000 odd anti tank weapons that have found their way into Ukraine over the last week
Aljezzera lists countries who have donated hardware. Obviously this cannot 100% be proven, and some just list money value
Some serious numbers and billions of euros of guns, ammo, rockets, fuels. Even smaller eu members getting in on the act. Czech Republic fpr example 30,000 pistols. Simple to operate and conceal pretty much zero training's requirement.
Enough to equip a UK division of troops properly, although transport and logistics would be a nightmare. Gotta be able to move, eat, sleep amd stay warm in sub zero temps.
Well I hope the humanitarian pathways are opened.
What’s the likelihood of a Russian military coup?
Putin is cunning and has surrounded himself with people who owe everything to him personally. He has not allowed anyone else to be powerful enough to become a potential rival. Anyone who does have access to him is shackled to him and personal survival rests on him staying in power. It's not impossible that he'll be overthrown, but I don't think it's highly likely either. Remember how the N. Korean leader had someone publicly executed with an anti-aircraft autocannon? Putin's mates mates know that their fate would probably be worse if they stepped out of line.
I think i know one the reasons that the armour isn’t having the effect tjat Pootang wanted.
It might be alot to do with the 15,000 odd anti tank weapons that have found their way into Ukraine over the last week
That's obviously part of it, but I think a lot of it is that the Russian troops were poorly trained and equipped. AIUI, tanks need infantry to protect them against anti-tank missiles, they all need anti-aircraft batteries, they need fuel and ammunition supplies, etc. That requires a lot of training to coordinate all the different parts of the army. The Russians seem to be just driving down the road and then not knowing what to do when the Ukrainians hit them with missiles and drones.
Not sure if this has been mentioned, at least 1 russian businessman doesn't want putin in charge any longer and is willing to put his money where his mouth is. www.independent.co.uk
I'd like to think the change needed will come from inside russia without the need for NATO to require force, unfortunately I can't see it happening
I've not contributed much, mainly because I'm not a historian, weapons techie or Chairborne forces, just a scared observer.
On the radio yesterday an ex-head of the armed forces was saying that it's pretty inevitable that Putin will take control of Ukrainian cities, given time and firepower, and upping the bombardments he's able to eventually force that.
But once done could he then manage to keep them against an insurgent population.
Not that I want him to 'win' but at what point do Ukrainians give up (all or part of the country) to maintain some infrastructure and housing and.... and then settle in to making it a long, uncomfortable occupation that will eventually see him out?
I suppose that if that happens he thinks who's next on his westward march but hasn't NATO's response given him cause to think that would see him smashed in no time. I see both sides that he feels he's been pushed to this by NATO expansion, but attacking an actual NATO country would get a swift and hard response, he has to see that now?
What’s the likelihood of a Russian military coup?
Sadly, as @thols2 says, the problem with all these dictator types is they surround themselves with subservient yes-men who owe their entire existence and way of life to the Leader. Saddam, Gaddafi, Kim Jong-un, Putin. They're all the same.
Step out of line or get too big for your boots and you get cut out of the inner circle and potentially assassinated. Makes it very hard for the Leader to do rational things or accept/be told that they're wrong in any way when no matter what idea you come up with is greeted in the manner of Arthur telling God that the search for the Holy Grail is a good idea.
"Of course it's a good idea, I thought of it!"
Well I hope the humanitarian pathways are opened.
Yeah, Putin agreed to this in Syria as well, and then shelled convoys using them.
I too think the chances of a coup are nil I’m afraid. Apart from anything else he still has the affection of a decent chunk of the population.
Feels to me like Ukraine’s military are outgunned, although not outclassed. This will lead to a long and bloody fight with mass casualties. The best hope is that this whittles down Russian capabilities and morale to the point where a stalemate followed by a ceasefire occurs. This I think is the best Ukraine can achieve at this point, assuming they can hold on.
As an aside, looking at the maps of Russian advances, it looks like they may be targeting the capture of the nuclear plants as a priority?
Not that I want him to ‘win’ but at what point do Ukrainians give up (all or part of the country) to maintain some infrastructure and housing and…. and then settle in to making it a long, uncomfortable occupation that will eventually see him out?
Putin has maintained all along, and said as much yesterday to Macron that he wants all of Ukraine. There's no reason to think he'll settle for less than that. His gamble has always been that eventually the west simmer down, the sanctions ease, that Europe will come for his gas, that the UN is toothless, and the world's ultimately divided. Up to this point he's been proved right every time. Is this the point at which the rest of us shrug and start to look away again?
Maybe if a few more people (and people covertly funded by other states) put some cash in the assassination pot so that it reaches an 8 or 9 figure sum, then it could be too tempting for folk not to have a pop?